Week zero plus one

As the Liberal party room prepares to anoint Peter Dutton as Opposition Leader, the first poll of the new term suggests he has his work cut out for him, in Western Australia at least.

This is one of three new posts I have on offer, providing a thread for general discussion. The other two featured below deal with the ongoing counting for the House of Representatives, with Labor’s potential parliamentary majority remaining up in the air, and the race for the Senate, in which I expect Labor and the Greens to account for half the seats between them, but with a number of outcomes depending on complex flows of preferences.

Election results aside, the main item of news to relate is that the Liberal and Nationals party rooms will hold their first meetings to sort out party leadership positions. Peter Dutton and Sussan Ley will be confirmed as Liberal leader and deputy leader unopposed, but a contested vote looms for the Nationals, in which David Littleproud and Darren Chester will seek to depose Barnaby Joyce. In Joyce’s favour is the fact that the Nationals retained all their seats at the election; in Littleproud’s is the fact that Joyce had a lot to do with the Liberals losing so many of theirs, leaving the Nationals in opposition; Chester I’m guessing is a dark horse.

Thanks to The West Australian, Peter Dutton can be welcomed to the opposition leadership with the first published opinion poll of the new era, conducted on Thursday by Painted Dog Research from a sample of 1354 Western Australian respondents. It finds only 19% rating Peter Dutton a “suitable candidate” to lead the party, compared with 58% who registered a view to the contrary. Dutton’s positive ratings were 16% among women and 23% among men.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,139 comments on “Week zero plus one”

Comments Page 62 of 63
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  2. May I ask you a very personal question? Is your screen persona predicated on Wran’s ’76 election?

    Labor under Neville Wran won the 1976 NSW State election by a single seat, about 6 months after the Dismissal. In the following election in 1978, he won in a landslide. Labor remained in power for another decade.

  3. Issues that I think should be considered by ICAC have been learnt from media reports. It has been incredibly frustrating watching them get away with so much without accountability.

    I support all corruption being looked at regardless of political persuasion. Working through the list of issues that could be considered by ICAC from the last decade is very very long.

    Promoting memory of it is a good thing.

  4. Cut Snake @ #3050 Thursday, June 2nd, 2022 – 8:14 pm

    Cat, may I nominate myself as a POSSIBLE attendee at your lunch. I am expecting the delivery of a new car which I ordered 13 months ago, stupidly I believed the salesman when he told me delivery was imminent last October and so sold my dying car while the going was good. Too many months of borrowing cars has beenthe result.

    Cut Snake,
    We’d love you to come along and can make transport arrangements that usually can accommodate most people. If you tell us the general area you’d be coming from maybe we could work something out?

  5. Aaron newton @ #3049 Thursday, June 2nd, 2022 – 8:12 pm

    funey how teagraph went hard on charlton but when abc went hard on porter the fredom lovers demandid A B c be silentsed is any proof marise payne was source ofpVos morrison text leak could have been dutton he sort of confermedhis role by pasive agresive saying to tingle that evry one has sent a text critical of there bos in the heat of the moment dutton would have more to gain to bring down morrison then payne

    Machiavelli would say that you’re probably on the money with Dutton. 🙂

  7. Foreign Correspondent on Putin presented short version of this statement …

    “Putin’s words sound like a direct threat of nuclear war,” believes Nobel Peace Prize laureate Dmitry Muratov, chief editor of the Novaya Gazeta newspaper.
    “In that TV address, Putin wasn’t acting like the master of the Kremlin, but the master of the planet; in the same way the owner of a flash car shows off by twirling his keyring round his finger, Putin was twirling the nuclear button. He’s said many times: if there is no Russia, why do we need the planet? No one paid any attention. But this is a threat that if Russia isn’t treated as he wants, then everything will be destroyed.” This quote is via BBC

    The West will have to take Putin out if they want to avoid his prophecy, the sooner the better.

  9. Steve777:

    Thursday, June 2, 2022 at 8:23 pm

    May I ask you a very personal question? Is your screen persona predicated on Wran’s ’76 election?

    [‘Labor under Neville Wran won the 1976 NSW State election by a single seat, about 6 months after the Dismissal. In the following election in 1978, he won in a landslide. Labor remained in power for another decade.’]

    I think you’re showing your age, Steve. Wran’s election in ’76 was indeed a monumental shift, giving hope to those who thought that at the time of “The Dismissal”, Labor was stuffed – welcome Albo.

  10. C@tmomma, please pencil me in, should there be room. I shall see if I can arrange matters so that I can attend. Wouldn’t want to miss a get-together.

  13. BK. A M/B A250 e Hatch.
    Cat@. Just to the south and west of Canberra.
    Formerly Kambah Mick until I stopped living in Kambah.

  14. Balding Middle Aged White Man @ #3046 Thursday, June 2nd, 2022 – 8:10 pm

    C@tmomma says:
    Thursday, June 2, 2022 at 3:30 pm
    Okay, so there appears to be a goodly number of Bludger Lounge regulars here atm, so I will therefore announce to the Bludger world that the Sydney Bludgers are going to meet on Wednesday June 22, from 12-3, to have a celebratory lunch after the recent electoral success of the Labor Party!

    _______________________________________
    I’ll be in Bali, Novotel Nusa Dua, so I won’t be able to make it. I do hope you have a fabulous day though. I will have a red cocktail in the pool bar and toast you with my labor voting bogan mates. The rest of my family are Greens members though so we will share a watermelon in your honour.

    And we’ll have one for you. 😉

  15. Mavis ”I think you’re showing your age, Steve. Wran’s election in ’76 was indeed a monumental shift, giving hope to those who thought that at the time of “The Dismissal”, Labor was stuffed – welcome Albo.’

    I voted in 1976 and a few times before then, so showing my age.

    Following the 1976 State election, Labor held power in NSW for 28 of the following 35 years.

    I am also rather hoping that Federally, Labor’s fortunes a similar path from now. Also NSW from next year.

  16. Mavis,

    There are lots of us in SEQ – in addition to cronus and prince planet, there are AR, davidWH, Asha, LR, myself, GlenO? off the top of my head.

  19. The 15% of gas produced in WA being obliged to be available for domestic use was not popular at all to the producers….This was one of the smarter moves made by the Carpenter Labor government which subsequently lost an election to Barnett that Labor should never have lost…..
    Interesting however, in 8 years of LNP government in WA, no move was made by the Barnett government to change this legislation.
    With things getting tight for gas supply, we in the Cave, might have something else going for us….

  20. CAT. I’m about 40 odd kms from the railway station. June is not the best month to be hitchhiking in Canberra area.

  26. Hey Aaron Newton,

    You just appeared in my FB suggestion list, we have 8 or so friends in common and all Labor members in Lindsay.

    We’ve met a few times and I wasn’t aware of your real name. I didn’t see you at St Marys rsl on election night, maybe I missed you ?

    To those claiming he is using some sort of disguise to hide his real identity I can assure 100% that is not the case. Aaron is vision impaired and uses special software to post here.

  27. ‘frednk says:
    Thursday, June 2, 2022 at 7:21 pm

    Boerwar says:
    Thursday, June 2, 2022 at 6:53 pm

    frednk
    Our major trading partner….
    Any observations on how accurate Zeihan’s has been with previous predictions?

    In my view he is a little too certain in his predictions.

    The demographics are real for sure. I have been going on about this for ages, the would is going to enter population decline. In my view for us giving the pacific island immigration rights makes a lot of sense.

    I found the talk by Council on Foreign Relations a lot more interesting and balanced.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CJsPv60fPJ4&t=90s&ab_channel=CouncilonForeignRelations

    One more interesting point I found listening to economic lectures, Japan’s immigration rate is rising and is now much higher than Australia’s. Who would have thought, but if your populations is falling what do you do?’
    =================================
    Thank you.

  28. Catmomma

    I am a long-term lurker mostly but, if its ok, I would like to reserve a pew at the Chinese luncheon

    Cheers

  30. I wouldn’t mind going if it was a Sydney do.

    Also it would also be fun to have it in one of those long standing antiquated Dixon st establishments- in the spirit of the legendary sussex st long lunches there’d have to be a lazy Susan, a special up stairs private area and staples like prawn toast, steamed and fried dim sims, special fried rice, sweet and sour pork , honey chicken etc !

  31. leftieBrawler @ #3076 Thursday, June 2nd, 2022 – 9:26 pm

    Hey Aaron Newton,

    You just appeared in my FB suggestion list, we have 8 or so friends in common and all Labor members in Lindsay.

    We’ve met a few times and I wasn’t aware of your real name. I didn’t see you at St Marys rsl on election night, maybe I missed you ?

    To those claiming he is using some sort of disguise to hide his real identity I can assure 100% that is not the case. Aaron is vision impaired and uses special software to post here.

    Thanks for that, Leftie. I’ve always taken Aaron seriously.

  32. leftieBrawler @ #3080 Thursday, June 2nd, 2022 – 9:38 pm

    I wouldn’t mind going if it was a Sydney do.

    Also it would also be fun to have it in one of those long standing antiquated Dixon st establishments- in the spirit of the legendary sussex st long lunches there’d have to be a lazy Susan, a special up stairs private area and staples like prawn toast, steamed and fried dim sims, special fried rice, sweet and sour pork , honey chicken etc !

    It’s already planned to be pretty much that but in Dixon Street at the Nine Dragons. Check it out:

    https://www.ninedragons.com.au/menus#ALaCarte

  33. Steve777:

    [‘I am also rather hoping that Federally, Labor’s fortunes a similar path from now. Also NSW from next year’]

    With Albanes at the helm federally, I see two terms at least. As for
    Perrottet, with seven children, perhaps he should spend more time with his family? I mean, I can’t adequately look after my dog.

    _______________________________________

    Dandy Murray-Honeydew:

    Thursday, June 2, 2022 at 8:53 pm

    [‘Mavis,

    There are lots of us in SEQ – in addition to cronus and prince planet, there are AR, davidWH, Asha, LR, myself, GlenO? off the top of my head.’]

    My only defence is that I’m not as young as I used to be. An aside, this site has improved remarkably of late – far less angst. A BZ, WB.

  35. ‘Mavis ”I think you’re showing your age, Steve. Wran’s election in ’76 was indeed a monumental shift, giving hope to those who thought that at the time of “The Dismissal”, Labor was stuffed – welcome Albo.’’

    Albanese was an internal critic of the Wran Government. However, he didn’t seem to mind Wran himself, more the NSW Right machine, and would have internalised Wran’s complete dominance over the conservatives.

    It would be interesting to be inside his brain to see what he truly thinks about Hawke, Keating. Wran etc and what, if anything, has changed over the years.

  36. Can atheists swear an oath on any book? I’m not sure what I would choose. Darwin’s Origin of the Species? Dawkins Selfish Gene? Infinite Jest? The Brothers Karamazov? One Hundred Years of Solitude? Who decides what book makes the cut?

  38. Awesome catmomma! Sounds good!.

    You sound like the perfect diplomatic host of such an event. Too bad you like cats, more of a golden retriever household here.

  39. bc: “I think the consensus is that almost all vehicles with be electric using batteries. As you say the exceptions will be niche operations requiring long range.”

    Damn straight. I have lots of petrol head mates. Hydrogen fueled engines are the shiznit. They can move or go bang. Super fun for the capable. Not like me. I like to think I know my limits.

  40. Like Carr after him, the academically brilliant and ambitious Wran took one for the party team when fully dedicating himself to the world of ‘trains and drains’ and having to put on hold the great Canberra dream.

    But, unlike Carr, Wran soon found the great power and benefits that the office of Premier aka the undisputed overload of the Sydney under world could wield.

    Keating was a minuscule nothing compared to the fear and compliance that Wran could emit and demand- be it a troublesome backbencher, a journalist, the police commissioner or Neddy Smith.

  41. “Like Carr before him, the academically brilliant and ambitious Wran took one for the party team when fully dedicating himself to the world of ‘trains and drains’ and having to put on hold the great Canberra dream.”

    ——–
    Wran was way before Carr

  42. poroti @ #3037 Thursday, June 2nd, 2022 – 7:38 pm

    Player One at 7:35 pm
    The projects proceeded with production locked in to long term contracts. How many gazillion $s are you prepared to pay to rip those up ?

    Well, I guess it depends who you favor.

    Local consumers who are doing it tough? Or multinationals who may face a drop in profits of a couple of basis points?

    Your choice, Labor.

  46. P1, that’s the beauty of this antiquated format- nobody misses anything, once simply has to scroll back to get everything

  48. Player One at 10:13 pm
    Who do you think will pay the $10s billions in compensation/damages to the companies ? Perhaps this ‘pain’ will be a way to ensure it finally gets through to the voters and pollies who have for decades thought it unnecessary to do what WA has been doing since 1979 ?

  49. poroti @ #3098 Thursday, June 2nd, 2022 – 10:19 pm

    Player One at 10:13 pm
    Who do you think will pay the $10s billions in compensation/damages to the companies ? Perhaps this ‘pain’ will be a way to ensure it finally gets through to the voters and pollies who have for decades thought it unnecessary to do what WA has been doing since 1979 ?

    Isn’t Labor intending to change anything?

    Remind me – why did we elect them?

  50. p1 we were agonising over the limitations in offerings an old Dixon st establishment could offer potential guests like yourself and FF could enjoy if you decided to attend. I mean you could have the san choy bow and skip the mince or remove the meat from the special fried rice

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