Click here for full federal election results updated live.
Wednesday, June 1
Pardon me for dropping the ball for a couple of days there as I made a fraught transition from Sydney back to Perth. You will now find my results facility regularly updating again as the very last votes trickle in over the next few days. As you’re all no doubt aware, it seems generally accepted that Labor will make it not merely to 76 but to 77 seats, having opened up a 301-vote lead in Gilmore with barely 1000 votes left to go. Since opening the 142-vote lead noted in the previous update, Labor has further benefited from a 181-122 break in its favour on electronic-assisted COVID votes and 1401-1335 on declaration pre-polls. While later batches of absent votes were predictably not as strong for Labor as the first, they did them no actual harm, breaking 690-682 their way, and they even got a 127-101 break from the latest postals.
Monday, May 30
The ABC is now calling Macnamara for Labor, and with it a Labor majority of 76 seats out of 151, with a growing chance that Gilmore will make it 77. The AEC’s three-candidate preferred count for Macnamara has not been updated, showing Liberal on 29202 (33.6%), Labor on 29152 (33.5%) and the Greens on 28657 (32.9%), with Labor to lose the seat if the Greens overcome the 495 deficit against Labor, unless the Liberals also lose their 50 vote lead over Labor. This leaves it lagging 2354 votes behind the primary vote count, with three batches added today accounting for the shortfall:
• The electronic-assisted COVID votes were, contrary to earlier suggestions, neither approaching 1000 in number (perhaps there are more yet to be added, though I’d doubt it) nor especially favourable to the Greens. The 477 formal votes went Labor 169, Greens 154 and Liberals 105. This would have added 10 or so Labor’s lead over the Greens, and erased the Liberals’ 50 vote lead over Labor with half-a-dozen or so to spare.
• There were 1447 pre-polls added to the 1678 that were in the count already, of which 417 went to the Greens, 412 went to Labor and 404 went to the Liberals. This would have cut about 40 from Labor’s lead over the Greens and restored to the Liberals the 50-vote lead over Labor I just said they had lost on the COVID votes.
• The 475 absent votes added today were about half of those outstanding, and were much like earlier batches in that the Greens got 169, Labor got 134 and the Liberals got 114. This would have cut about 45 votes out of Labor’s lead over the Greens and hardly affected their lead over the Liberals.
• No postals were added today. There are 266 of these to be added to the count, plus however many arrive in the post over the coming days, which surely won’t be many.
My best estimate is that this still leaves Labor 420 votes ahead of the Greens on the three-candidate preferred, with the outstanding votes consisting of at most 555 absents, 730 pre-polls (there are about 1000 fewer of these than I suggested in yesterday’s update) and 266 postals, plus the few extra postals that will trickle in over the coming days. Realistically, any cut to Labor’s lead over the Greens here will number in the dozens rather than the hundreds. There are, however, potentially enough to erase a Liberal lead over the Labor that I reckon to be about 44 votes, though whether that happens is academic if Labor stays ahead of the Greens.
There was further good news for Labor today in Gilmore, where Labor’s Fiona Phillips has opened a 142 vote lead over Andrew Constance. This was mostly due to a remarkable 334-145 break in their favour on the first batch of absents, which obviously came for a strong area for them. Labor were further boosted by a 157-132 split on the latest batch of postals, 388-278 from the first declaration pre-polls and 95-63 from the provisionals, plus a net gain of 40 on rechecking of ordinary votes.
Labor’s position further improved in Lyons, where the second batch of absent votes broke 550-306 their way, putting their lead at 932 with no more than 2000 still to come. However, Deakin continues to slip away from Labor, with the latest postals breaking 1112-836 to the Liberals, more than compensating for advantages to Labor of 998-714 and 720-696 on the latest absents and pre-polls. This puts Liberal member Michael Sukkar 619 votes ahead with at most 2500 still to come.
There are now three seats with electronic-assisted COVID results in (Macnamara, Flinders and Graynder), and it seems they typically involve around 400 votes that are roughly 10% below par for the Liberals and 3% to 4% above it for Labor and the Greens. This suggests they will boost Labor by a few dozen votes when reported in Gilmore, Lyons and Deakin.
Sunday, May 29
With the Greens now effectively confirmed as the winners in Brisbane, Labor’s bid for the seventy-sixth seat needed for a majority hinges on three seats: Macnamara, which like Brisbane will be won by whichever out of Labor and the Greens survives to the final count against the Liberals; and the conventional contests of Gilmore and Deakin.
The Australian Electoral Commission’s efforts yesterday were devoted to preparing for a big push of counting in these three seats, meaning I have nothing to add to my updates from Saturday. In Macnamara especially, the result may well prove so close that it may not be definitively known until the final eligible postal votes have trickled in at the end of the week.
Note also the post directly below this one taking a deep and overdue look at the Senate result.
Count now out to a 222 margin for Phillips
Now 222 votes in front.
Grime, if you right click on that image, or long hold on it if you have a touch interface, and choose to “open image in new page” or something, you will get a new page address. If you copy that new page address into your comment, you’ll see the image in here.
Deakin went one way, Gilmore t’other
Phillips has done well on the Covid phone votes – a 60/40 split in her favour. This added around 60 votes to her lead. (181 to 122).
It is unclear if there are more Covid phone votes to come.
Only group Constance is in front is on postals. To date, only 170 of those left to count.
Dare we all dream of lucky 77?
77 is a good outcome on all counts, except that it validates Newscorp’s early call.
2866 votes still to count. Mostly absents and pre-poll declarations, which have been strongly favouring Phillips so far. Constance now needs something pretty dramatic to happen to turn around the trend.
I hope it gets resolved today so I can focus on work!
Morrison after 2019 77 seats.
ALP after 2022 (maybe 77 seats)
After 2019 ALP 68 seats.
After 2022 LNP 58 seats.
mandate arguments anyone????
Pi @ #204 Tuesday, May 31st, 2022 – 1:31 pm
Testing Like so?
”
Zehsays:
Tuesday, May 31, 2022 at 1:21 pm
Count now out to a 222 margin for Phillips
”
If true it would be devastating for Constance because he let go the birdin the hand for 2 birds in the bush.
Grime: done.
Fiona has claimed it herself now as well.
https://www.facebook.com/photo?fbid=427787932505151&set=a.215288850421728
@JenAuthor
I believe there is a mandate for action on the environment and social issues, regarding anti-racism and discrimination against minorities, and against corruption. There are close to 90 anti-Coalition MPs in agreeance.
There is less of a mandate (81 seats) for action on financial inequality and affordability of living costs, with the Teals unlikely to support redistributive proposals. However, a majority is a majority. Much can be achieved and much consensus realised because the Coalition are now so far removed from the rest of Parliament.
My crappy rubber-banding model says that Labor will win Gilmore by 514 votes.
Libs would need nearly 58% of uncounted votes to pull ahead.
ABC gives Deakin to Tories. Only Gilmore left on the ABC undecided but should be good for ALP 77 seats.
It’s a big hill in Deakin but Labor has pared off some more of the lead Sukkar has been holding – down to 570
JenAuthor @ #217 Tuesday, May 31st, 2022 – 4:09 pm
If ABC are calling it I assume the checking is now complete. With only 1900 or so votes left in the pile (a small portion of which are unfavourable postals plus a reasonable portion of dec and prov will be discarded) even getting to a recount seems impossible.
I have gone from hoping he loses to hoping there is a recount to now thinking wouldnt it be lovely if Sukkar has the pleasure of owning the most marginal seat in Australian federal politics.
Something interesting – I’ve just done a quick regression analysis on the Ordinary votes in Gilmore. Note that ranges below are 95% confidence intervals.
Unsurprisingly, preferences are flowing quite strongly from the Greens to Labor, at 89% (between 85% and 93%). More surprisingly, though, is One Nation, which is flowing 62.3% to Labor (between 44.6% and 80%). The Independent is flowing at about 42%, UAP at about 22%, and LDP at about 30.6%. Note that the CI for LDP is particularly large, anywhere from -20% to 81% (which means it doesn’t tell us a lot).
Unfortunately, when you add in postals, etc, it becomes a lot less sane in terms of the numbers it produces.
Labor up to 225 in Gilmore. Not sure what else was counted. But three more votes for Fiona!
Looks like Dec prepolls
The Revisionist says:
Tuesday, May 31, 2022 at 5:26 pm
Looks like Dec prepolls
中华人民共和国
Thanks Cobber.
Can we get our comment count to keep pace with Fiona’s vote lead ?
Looks like ABC has called Gilmore, giving no more seats in doubt. ALP 77 LNP 58 others 16.
Hard to see how or where the LNP will win 18 seats next election
ABC computer has given Gilmore to the ALP. 77 you bloody ripper.
Phillips ahead by 242 now.
Federal election live: Prime Minister Anthony Albanese expected to reveal new cabinet in evening press conference, as ABC projects Labor wins Gilmore
If my results pages are still of any use to anyone, they’re updating again now.
William Bowe says:
Tuesday, May 31, 2022 at 5:39 pm
If my results pages are still of any use to anyone, they’re updating again now.
中华人民共和国
Thank you “Great Helmsman” and thank you for your wonderful blog. I will be able to put into the tin later this week and would encourage fellow Bludgers to do the same.
Thanks William. An absolutely outstanding facility. And I imagine you already have a few tweaks in mind that will make it even better.
Thanks William for your results page. I regularly used it instead of AEC and more than ABC websites.
Great to see Fiona get up in Gilmore, but still waiting for AG to call it. I know it’s been tenuous.
Interesting data coming out from the election, mentioned here on PB.
Of particular interest is the PV of Labor and the Libs. Much was made of Labors 32odd % PV and how low it was. Birmingham commented on it on the election night- as he would.
But I would point to the results- 32% PV gets Labor 77 seats. 36%PV gets Libs 59.
But the real clincher is the Preference count.
Here Labor did brilliantly either coming first or second and scoring preferences from all over the place. Conversely, the Libs fell flat. The preferences from the rag-tag Right Wing Parties like UAP and PHON were, as expected, all over the place. As an example, though it varies over the seats, was the preferences Phillips recieved in Gilmore.
Herein lies one of the Libs major problems for 2025. The absolute undiscipline of PHON and UAP means they cannot be relied on for significant preference support- whereas the Progressive Parties are far more disciplined in their preferences. Perhaps the UAP will fade away next time, and the Libs will get their votes back as PV. As for PHON, who the hell knows where it’ll be in 2025. I reckon Pauline will be gone, and with her, PHON.
Add to that is the extreme difficulty the Libs will have in taking back their blue inner- city seats. Labor will not run dead in them, but expect strong preferences towards the Teals and Indies.
If the final margin of seats stays as it is, the Libs have one hell of a job ahead to put Labor under pressure. I don’t believe the new soft- centre Dutton is going to win over anyone who isn’t already of the Right Wing persuasion.
How the worm has turned. Things look positive for progressive politics.
Deakin margin down to 575 or .29%
Too little too late.
Michael Sukkar will be a good chance for Treasurer in 2025.
Freya Stark says:
Tuesday, May 31, 2022 at 6:04 pm
Deakin margin down to 575 or .29%
Too little too late.
Michael Sukkar will be a good chance for Treasurer in 2025.
中华人民共和国
Treasurer of the Deakin Liberal FEC more like it – what.
No more in doubt seat???….oh no, will we all have to go back to the main thread?….”shoulders slump”,
Thanks William. I think the results page was GREAT apart from lacking an easy way to sort by or highlight seats predicted to change hands or close. I mostly used yours “on the night” but in the postcount it’s fair I think to say the ABC and AEC were better formatted for looking at key seats specifically, while yours remained better for looking at the macro picture.
Question what is the margin in Eden-Monaro now? I know before the election it was a 0.8% margin.
Paul says:
Tuesday, May 31, 2022 at 7:04 pm
Question what is the margin in Eden-Monaro now? I know before the election it was a 0.8% margin.
中华人民共和国
8.12% to the ALP, AEC says cobber.
@ upnorth
Thanks. Kristy held the seat well. Probably the biggest margin that Eden-Monaro has had.
Paul says:
Tuesday, May 31, 2022 at 7:47 pm
@ upnorth
Thanks. Kristy held the seat well. Probably the biggest margin that Eden-Monaro has had.
中华人民共和国
No problems digger. Yeah I don’t think Jimmy Snow ever had such a margin. Mate of mine ex BKK worked in Gilmore. He is over the Moon it came home today.
When you scroll thru random seats it is interesting (and instructive) the level of primary vote swings against the Liberal Party/LNP, to the order of 10%
These falls have gone to where they have gone to – including to the Greens and Independents (Fowler) changing the ultimate contest participants
This loss of votes by the Liberal Party/LNP across the Seats I have scanned describe the outcome of this election
These swings are also evident in seats the Liberal Party once deemed safe, such as Deakin and Menzies which Seats are now marginal (and I would assess could have fallen to Labor if the ALP had committed resource)
I have scanned some 20 seats in NSW, Victoria and Queensland and this outcome is consistent
The Liberal Party/LNP vote has collapsed in a significant number of seats – and to the order of 10%
Hence they now hold 58 Seats across the Liberal Party/LNP/National Party
In a 151 Seat House
That is a thumping – and there is the prospect of a thumping which puts an end to the Coalition Parties except in Regional and Country Queensland
I have not looked at any Seats retained by the National Party (10?) assuming their demographic would see their vote hold up regardless
Further to the above, and scanning other Seats retained by the Coalition (including Tasmania which has a different outcome), it would be interesting to detail the swings away from the Coalition Parties and resulting in an average swing away of 5%
Because there is an incidence of swings far greater than the average so there must be some which deliver the average
Where are they?
The overall summary is that the primary vote statistic nationally hides the real story of Australia voting in 2022, and setting the basis for subsequent votes
Statistics, statistics and damn lies, hey?
MABWM Out!
Great result.
Great work by the Great Helmsman.
Interesting times ahead.
Voldemort will be very unhappy. After the next election, if things keep going as they are, on current trajectories, Littleproud will be the leader of the opposition.
Given that the Coalition have lost several of their ‘blue ribbon’ seats and that they will be very difficult to get back, their range of seats to aim to win has effectively dropped from 18 of 93, (151-58) to 18 of only Labor’s 77, which will likely require a bigger swing than just the 2% on likely 2PP?
Interesting to see the margin on Labor’s 15th to 18th least safe seats.
Hope my logic isn’t too far off.
Thanks William. I’ve only just found Poll Bludger (not sure how I didn’t find this site earlier). It has been a revelation, both from the insightful commentary and your analysis of the data.
@Swing Required: 18 to regain majority government, but there would be a range in which the Coalition would be more likely than Labor to form minority government.
Not all independents hold, either, though Dutton hardly seems likely to attract Teal voters back, several of those “Teal” seats are going to be fairly close and people might go back Liberal with issues like the anti corruption commission presumably dealt with and off the board, particularly if Dutton can be pragmatic about climate change policy. Labor with the right candidate next time (presumably Tu Le has it nailed down, if she wants to run) will have a go at taking Fowler back too, especially if Dai Le votes too strongly with the Liberals.
Let’s say 18 though. My quick glance through the current 2PP figures for Labor vs Coalition seats suggests the 18th seat will be in the 5%+ range, perhaps Reid (currently showing 5.4%). Actually, we should throw the seat of Ryan into the hopper as well (the margin for Brisbane is higher on the pendulum), that’s only 2% or so Greens vs Coalition. So maybe Shortland (5.3%) is the 18th. Something in that range, anyway. Blair and Werriwa (5.1%ish) also in the mix.
When you look at those 18 seats, I think you can instantly understand the Dutton strategy though. They really need a swag of regional and outer suburban Melbourne and Sydney seats heavily in the 3-7% margin range (accounting for the fact that the 18 lowest margin seats include a couple of seats like Ryan and Lingiari they are grossly unlikely to take with this strategy, and they have every chance of also losing a couple more seats like Bass, Deakin and Menzies next time too, they really need to be able to push up to seats above 6% and 7%.
Looks pretty much certain that the Greens will outperform their best lower house performance of 11.8% in 2010, which is pretty impressive given the presence of teals. Currently on 11.9% and with mostly absents outstanding it will end up being 12.X%. Imagine there should be a slight improvement in Labor’s 2PP as well.
@Arky at 10.00am. Agreed that some of the Indies will be easier to support the Coalition. Obviously Katter, probably Sharkie and Dai Le. The others are persuadable depending on how Labor perform.
OTOH, the 4 Greens and Wilkie would support Labor and it’s very likely Tu Le would defeat Dai Le in Fowler.
Thanks for your seat calculations, it’s a new psephological world now, one that I like.
I’m curious as to how much strategic voting actually happened in electorates like Kooyong. I think the easiest way to tell is to see how the senate count looks compared with the house count, compared with a similar electorate that didn’t have a Teal candidate. The logical partner to Kooyong is Higgins, as a neighbouring electorate with similar demographics, but no Teal. This will allow us to compare senate trends and estimate where the house votes would have been without Monique Ryan. Note that the following is only looking at Ordinary votes, as counting continues for other types of vote.
Format:
Party – Senate vote, House Vote > Difference (House minus Senate)
Higgins:
Liberal – 33.64%, 39.73% > 6.09%
Labor – 28.79%, 29.17% > 0.38%
Greens – 24.44%, 23.35% > -1.09%
Other – 13.13%, 7.75% > -5.38%
Kooyong:
Liberal – 41.59%, 41.54% > -0.05%
Labor – 26.23%, 6.33% > -19.90%
Greens – 20.23%, 6.05% > -14.18%
Ryan – N/A, 42.61%
Other – 11.95%, 3.47% > -8.48%
Comparative differences are key to interpreting this. Liberals in these kinds of seats appear to lose about 6% of their House vote in the Senate. Since the difference is zero in Kooyong, it stands to reason that about 6% of (all) voters chose to vote for Ryan instead of Frydenberg. Looking at Labor, there’s about a 20% differential, suggesting that 20% of people who would have voted Labor instead voted for Ryan. For the Greens, it appears to be about 13%. That accounts for 39% out of Ryan’s 42.5%, and the remaining 3.5% come from Others.
If I had to predict what the votes would have looked like without Ryan, here’s where I think they’d have landed:
Liberals – 47.5%
Labor – 26.5%
Greens – 19%
Others – 7%