Week zero

The Coalition prepares to choose or confirm leaders, Section 44 rears its head once again, and a look at the aggregate two-party preferred numbers.

To allow for a separate thread for the late election counting, which can be found here, here goes my first post-election summary of relevant news to kick off a general discussion thread. Which is naturally less easy to do now that there are no polls or election horse race scuttlebutt to relate. Here’s what I’ve managed:

• Peter Dutton now appears certain to be elected unopposed as the new Liberal leader at the first meeting of the party room after the election winners have been confirmed. There appears to be strong support for the notion that the deputy position should go to a woman, names mentioned including Karen Andrews, Bridget Archer, Sussan Ley, Anne Ruston and Jane Hume. There were some suggestions that Andrews might seek the leadership, together with Dan Tehan, although it always seemed clear Dutton had the numbers.

• The Nationals party room will meet on Tuesday, which could see a challenge to Barnaby Joyce’s leadership from David Littleproud or Michael McCormack. However, the ABC reports it has been put to McCormack that it would be preferable to have a “fresh start”. Mike Foley of the Age/Herald reports Keith Pitt might put his name forward on the “off chance” that Joyce declines to stand, positioning himself as the heir to Joyce’s skepticism on net zero carbon emissions.

• Following her win over Labor’s Kristina Keneally as an independent for Fowler, it has been noted that Dai Le asserted on her Section 44 checklist as part of her nomination for the election that she had never been a citizen or subject of a country other than Australia. Queried by The Australian, constitutional law expert Anne Twomey offered the inuitively obvious point that this seemed unlikely given she was born in Vietnam in 1968 and remained there until her family fled in 1975. However, while a nomination may be rejected if a prospective candidate does not complete the checklist and provide supporting documentation is required, it would not appear a nomination is retrospectively invalidated if the information provided was later shown to be incomplete. The sole point at issue is whether Le does in fact have Vietnamese citizenship, which would appear unlikely based on the account of Sydney barrister Dominic Villa.

• The projections of both the ABC and myself are that Labor will win the final two-party preferred count by 51.8-48.2, from a swing to Labor of 3.3%. This is derived from two-candidate preferred counts between Labor and the Coalition in seats where one is available and estimates of other parties’ preference flows where they are not. I have Labor winning by 51.3-48.7 in New South Wales, a swing of 3.0%; 53.9-46.1 in Victoria, a swing of 0.8%; the Coalition winning 54.3-45.7 in Queensland, a swing to Labor of 4.1%; Labor winning 54.7-45.3 in Western Australia, a swing of 10.2% (their first win in the state since 1987 and best result since 1983); 53.9-46.1 in South Australia, a swing of 3.2%; and 53.8-46.2 in Tasmania, a swing to the Coalition of 2.1%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,000 comments on “Week zero”

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  1. I think every Federal election is 50/50 (or maybe 60/40 to the incumbent) this far out. The Liberals can recover pretty easily if the new Government isn’t particularly competent, or if it faces very hard times.

    More generally, the Liberals like to win and can be pretty ruthless if a leader doesn’t deliver. Given a few months more I think they would have knocked Morrison for sure; it’s just his collapse occurred a bit too quickly over the last 6 to 9 months.

    As to the seats, the proverbial rising tide floats all boats and a 3% swing back to the LNP would have to deliver enough seats somewhere.

  2. Nath:

    Re Gippsland. Labor managed a bare 2pp majority in Morwell. Quite a drop from the past when it was rock solid Labor. Moe to a lesser extent. Coal and logging is no doubt the reason.

    Are you looking at the 2019 figures? The Nats won every single booth in Gippsland – even Morwell and Churchill, on ~10% swings. (Moe, over the border in Monash, stayed with Labor.)

    Labor have been crashing out in the Latrobe Valley for a while now. In state politics, they lost Morwell in 2006, and couldn’t even win it back in the 2018 landslide when the ex-Nat MP won it as an independent (although they technically won the 2pp count against the actual Nats). Narracan, same deal – won in the regional swing that threw out Kennett, but then got thumped in 2006 and it’s now fairly safe for the Libs.

  3. But no leak or speculation yet on who’s in the ministry. Guess too early with 2 seats undecided AND a decision on challenging Fowler result to be had.

  4. Bird of paradox says:
    Sunday, May 29, 2022 at 8:37 pm

    Nath:

    Re Gippsland. Labor managed a bare 2pp majority in Morwell. Quite a drop from the past when it was rock solid Labor. Moe to a lesser extent. Coal and logging is no doubt the reason.

    Are you looking at the 2019 figures? The Nats won every single booth in Gippsland – even Morwell and Churchill, on ~10% swings. (Moe, over the border in Monash, stayed with Labor.)
    ______
    Yes. Sorry, I must have been looking at 2019 figures. Much worse now!

  5. Lars Von Trier @ #2877 Sunday, May 29th, 2022 – 7:50 pm

    William are comments like the above and AE’s bullying of P1 acceptable? I would have thought most reasonable people would say they are beyond the pale.

    William long ago made it clear he did not really want me on this site, so I would not expect him to act.

    However, I applaud the fact that – despite that – he continues to let me post here.

    It is what makes PB a site worth visiting, despite it becoming largely a habitue of Labor Right ideologues who would rather insult and denigrate than engage with, reason with, or even acknowledge the right to exist of, any dissenting opinion.

  6. Cronus @ #2732 Sunday, May 29th, 2022 – 6:46 pm

    Pi says:
    Sunday, May 29, 2022 at 3:54 pm
    “Gas extraction is going to continue in Oz if for no other reason than to wean the world off of coal. If you’re against gas infrastructure expanding to support the transition from coal for most of the world, you’re against action on climate change. Turning off our gas exports will simply mean that countries witout access to gas will use coal instead.”

    I stand to be corrected but I had a vague recollection that gas (methane) is even worse than CO2 in terms of its impact on climate change.

    Methane itself is a 7 times more effective greenhouse (global warming) gas than CO2. All coal mines spew methane into the atmosphere, since all of their contained ‘coal seam gas’ (CSG) is simply directly released as the coal is uncovered and fractured. I have been in many underground mines, and witnessed the continuous hissing, bubbling coal seams. That’s why underground coal mines are ‘ventilated’ with giant fans, and explosions occasionally occur. The canaries were to warn miners when the gas concentration had become too high.

    Drilling down into coal seams to harvest that same CSG gas also releases methane, since the holes are not completely sealed at their sides, and a goodly proportion of holes are not successfully completed, and are abandoned to spew away, quietly. When the pressure of gas from the seam below becomes too low to effectively recover it, the production hole is also abandoned and rarely, if ever, properly sealed.

    Open cut coal mines, after they are abandoned, continue to spew CSG into the air sideways from exposed seams, at a gradually diminishing rate.

  7. The Liberals can recover pretty easily if the new Government isn’t particularly competent, or if it faces very hard times.

    Or if factional manoeuvring inside the Party destroys it from the inside, like happened last time. Would hope that they’ve learned their lesson, although the people who botched Fowler and almost cost the Party a majority will still be calling the shots.

  8. Albo might be able to swing a second or third term. A lot depends on the global economy, as ever. But a lot also depends on whether the Lying Reactionaries can make peace with The Heresy or whether The Heresy spreads into the remaining Reactionary dominions. And whether either of these things happen will in part depend on whether the Lying Reactionaries overcome their reliance on the politics of coal or renew their subscriptions to it.

    If the Lying Reactionaries are smart (so, not likely) they will abandon their futile and self-defeating resistance to reformist climate change policies. Instead, they could fully embrace new policies and commit themselves to rapid de-carbonisation of the economy. The Nationals will balk. But so what? The Nationals are nothing without the Liberals.

    The Reactionaries – seeing where their self-interest lies – could endorse Labor’s reforms and demand they go even further. They could get fully behind a Commonwealth ICAC. They could shift their weight to supporting the Voice from the Heart. They could enlist the contributions of The Heresy, and create electoral alliances with them.

    This would change the dynamics very substantially.

  9. ” Quick, somebody share what the current betting odds are ”

    Sportsbet.

    Labor $1.45
    Coalition $2.70
    Any Other Party $51.00

    All quite meaningless, of course.

  10. C@tmomma @ Sunday, May 29, 2022 at 8:48 pm
    “Griff @ #2892 Sunday, May 29th, 2022 – 8:21 pm

    Pretty frothy tonight. Ho hum.
    And your comments are as boring and trite as usual. Ho hummer.”

    It was a gentle way of saying that we have several posters going at each other tonight. I am not sure why it resulted in personal abuse in response.

  11. ‘Confessions says:
    Sunday, May 29, 2022 at 7:13 pm

    Steve777 @ #2854 Sunday, May 29th, 2022 – 7:12 pm

    ”Lets hope these sentiments age well –

    ……………….
    Anthony Albanese on course for at least six years in power
    By David Crowe”’
    ===============================
    Oh, I remember how Abbott was going to last for ten years at least!
    They are only giving Albanese six.
    Looking at the average lifespan of a prime minister since Howard six is surely super optimistic!

  12. Griff: “It was a gentle way of saying that we have several posters going at each other tonight”

    It was pretty clear to me fwiw.

  13. If Bandt is a good boy then Albanese might just let him keep his seats in the next election.

    If all Bandt does is shout from the rooftops, spit the dummy and throw his teddy out of the cot, Albanese might have to do a preference swap deal with the Liberals.

    The Liberals would love to get rid of the Nationals and would be up for some sort of deal. It could just be limited to certain seats. In Nationals seats Labor voters could vote 1 Labor and then preference the Liberal candidate ahead of the Nationals candidate.

    No more having to put up with yokels like Joyce!

  14. Speaking of fugitive methane, China produces half the world’s coal.

    One assumes that it must roughly produce half the world’s methane as well.

  15. “I will say however, that your naval uniform is getting a bit tight.”

    I said I resembled ScoMo, not Christiansen. Just as your momma likes it.

  16. Anthony Albanese on course for at least six years in power

    The ‘turnaround’ of attitude (for now anyway) towards Albo by significant parts of the MSM stands out.

    Do they just want to be seen on the winning side and will revert to form quickly ?

    Probably.

    Albo Labor though have to perform, get runs on the board.

  17. We had six Prime Ministerships in 14½ years Nov 2007-May 2022 (including two by Rudd) —> average term about 2 years 5 months. Each PM spent an average of about 2 years 11 months in the job.

  18. Boerwar you’re not contributing anything with this rubbish. The Liberals don’t want to get rid of the Nats, because without the Nats they can never form government. Labor does not want to help the Libs at the expense of the Greens, because the Libs exist to keep Labor out of power, while the Greens will always choose Labor over Liberal. What you’re saying was mind-numbingly stupid the first time and only gets stupider every hundred times you say it.

  19. Andrew_Earlwood says:
    Sunday, May 29, 2022 at 9:07 pm

    “I will say however, that your naval uniform is getting a bit tight.”

    I said I resembled ScoMo, not Christiansen. Just as your momma likes it.
    ________
    I’ve never met a 12 year old Barrister before!

  20. “ One assumes that it must roughly produce half the world’s methane as well.”

    the thawing Siberian permafrost has entered the conversation.

  21. “ I’ve never met a 12 year old Barrister before!”

    I think of myself as a 17yo trapped in a 53yo dad-bod.

  22. Steve777 says:
    Sunday, May 29, 2022 at 9:10 pm

    We had six Prime Ministerships in 14½ years Nov 2007-May 2022 (including two by Rudd) —> average term about 2 years 5 months. Each PM spent an average of about 2 years 11 months in the job.
    _____
    Thanks Steve but the longevity of PM’s is literally 5679 on my list of 7000 things to worry about.

  23. Andrew_Earlwood says:
    Sunday, May 29, 2022 at 9:12 pm

    “ I’ve never met a 12 year old Barrister before!”

    I think of myself as a 17yo trapped in a 53yo dad-bod.
    _______
    That’s what a lot of guys say after they get arrested. You should know that.

  24. Boerwar: “One assumes that it must roughly produce half the world’s methane as well.”

    Most of the methane released into the atmosphere of our world occurs naturally.

    https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/4799

    “Methane is a powerful greenhouse gas that traps heat 28 times more effectively than carbon dioxide over a 100-year timescale. Concentrations of methane have increased by more than 150% since industrial activities and intensive agriculture began. After carbon dioxide, methane is responsible for about 23% of climate change in the twentieth century. Methane is produced under conditions where little to no oxygen is available. About 30% of methane emissions are produced by wetlands, including ponds, lakes and rivers. Another 20% is produced by agriculture, due to a combination of livestock, waste management and rice cultivation. Activities related to oil, gas, and coal extraction release an additional 30%. The remainder of methane emissions come from minor sources such as wildfire, biomass burning, permafrost, termites, dams, and the ocean. Scientists around the world are working to better understand the budget of methane with the ultimate goals of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and improving prediction of environmental change.”

    About 30% of it comes from fossil fuel extraction. The biggest methane concentration worry is arctic permafrost melting, as the arctic tundra is essentially a frozen swamp. Keep the temperature down, and you keep the tundra from melting and releasing that methane.

    There is little difference between different fossil fuel extraction techniques and the methane they release, except to say that coal is the worse because generally the coal mine is exposed. The process of methane release is essentially evaporation. If you expose it to the air, it is released. So if you have an open-cut mine, it’s going to be sweating methane. Yes we need to be conscious of our methane budget, but no, it is not the primary concern in the transition away from fossil fuel energy. Fow now.

  25. “ That’s what a lot of guys say after they get arrested. You should know that.”

    I’ve always been interested in women who are slightly older than me. So, I’m pretty safe on that score.

  26. I know this is a big call but Albo’s got it for 9 years at least.

    Here’s why:
    The teals represent the leadership seats of the liberal party. The remaining liberals may have held power, but they don’t represent Australia in a broader context.

    I quipped a while back about how the PM must come from either NSW, Vic or QLD, and preferably NSW. It’s the same thing with the liberals. High command must reside in central Sydney or it’s not the liberal party (Bankers party).

    So, until a teal either joins the LNP or a superstar liberal upsets a teal and wins back a seat, I strongly suspect that the liberal party of today will go bush, go right, and go extinct.

    In the next ten years we have the following things to look out for:
    1. The Queen will die,
    2. Climate change will get deadly real.
    3. Murdoch will die,
    4. Palmer probably will die, and
    5. Green energy will be the dominant power source in the country.

    These will be moments of change that move the country in progressive direction. Labor may become a minority in that time, but I doubt we will see a liberal majority until 50% of the people in the liberal party are women and their issues are being dealt with this energy and gusto.

    You can’t escape your nature. What remains of the Liberals, excluding the LNPQ and nationals needs to grow it’s own small ~24 seat base quick smart.

  27. ”It was meant facetiously. I don’t actually care what the current odds are, nor do I care about any federal opinion polling right now.”

    Neither do I, although just a bit curious if anyone had bothered to do the odds yet.

  28. Pi @ Sunday, May 29, 2022 at 9:02 pm

    Thank you Pi. While I freely admit I am no saint on here, it was a little frustrating just now to scroll though the amount of abuse (even now) for the knowledge and wisdom that keeps drawing me back.

  29. Griff @ #2915 Sunday, May 29th, 2022 – 9:00 pm

    C@tmomma @ Sunday, May 29, 2022 at 8:48 pm
    “Griff @ #2892 Sunday, May 29th, 2022 – 8:21 pm

    Pretty frothy tonight. Ho hum.
    And your comments are as boring and trite as usual. Ho hummer.”

    It was a gentle way of saying that we have several posters going at each other tonight. I am not sure why it resulted in personal abuse in response.

    Because your oblique original comment served no useful purpose other than to seem trite and condescending to people on this thread. Your clarification should have been your original comment, imho. I just call it as I see it. Though I do admit that the yo’ mamma back and forth isn’t serving much of a useful purpose either. 😐

  30. south @ Sunday, May 29, 2022 at 9:20 pm

    I agree with the proposition that the seats that deliver power for the Liberals are currently lost, but not so with the need for Sydney to deliver the next Liberal PM. This is due to Howard. Should the Liberals swing central, Melbourne could deliver. But it seems that the Liberals are essentially doing the opposite for now.

  31. Andrew_Earlwood says:
    Sunday, May 29, 2022 at 9:17 pm

    I’ve always been interested in women who are slightly older than me.
    ________
    Yo momma issues?

  32. Griff,
    I don’t disagree as such with the view about Vic, but until the state LNP can get back on the railroad tracks people won’t be too fond of the federal brand.

    I don’t subscribe to the view that people see them as separate entities anymore.

  33. Possum Comitatus @Pollytics

    Worth adding: There is no Teals stealing seats from the Libs – they earned them. There is no Greens stealing seats from Labor – they earned them. If you can’t mentally adjust to the notion that a diverse community believes in more than two parties can provide, get a new job

  34. The Age 29/05
    The Andrews and Albanese governments are on a collision course over Victoria’s Suburban Rail Loop project, according to infrastructure experts, who expect federal cash to hinge on an independent assessment of the plan.
    _____________________
    Andrews will be shitting himself and Albo might save 2.5 billion.

  35. I see a lot of parallel between Albanese and Biden.
    Albanese was the deputy of the last Labor prime minister, Kevin Rudd. He is also the oldest elected Prime Minister on swearing in.
    With the economic climate being dodgy at best, Albanese’s net approval will probably fall into negative territory before Christmas. We could be looking at the most conservative government on record when Dutton wins the next election in a landslide.

  36. Watermelon there seems to be no experience of embarrassment to push absurb ideas over and over again.

    I would of thought being such an ALP supporter, happiness over the ALP govt may have overtaken their relentlessness at least for this week.

    But no, looks like we get to scroll on past diatribe after diatribe advocating second preferencing the liberals, because Adam Bandt is the devil. Cos splitters!

    It’s all just a bit over the top

  37. south @ Sunday, May 29, 2022 at 9:34 pm

    Fair point. I would agree that the NSW LNP branch is for more likely power base. For now 🙂

  38. Taylormade says:
    Sunday, May 29, 2022 at 9:38 pm

    The Age 29/05
    The Andrews and Albanese governments are on a collision course over Victoria’s Suburban Rail Loop project, according to infrastructure experts, who expect federal cash to hinge on an independent assessment of the plan.
    _____________________
    Andrews will be shitting himself and Albo might save 2.5 billion.
    ____________
    Let’s hope not. It’s a brilliant project.

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