To allow for a separate thread for the late election counting, which can be found here, here goes my first post-election summary of relevant news to kick off a general discussion thread. Which is naturally less easy to do now that there are no polls or election horse race scuttlebutt to relate. Here’s what I’ve managed:
• Peter Dutton now appears certain to be elected unopposed as the new Liberal leader at the first meeting of the party room after the election winners have been confirmed. There appears to be strong support for the notion that the deputy position should go to a woman, names mentioned including Karen Andrews, Bridget Archer, Sussan Ley, Anne Ruston and Jane Hume. There were some suggestions that Andrews might seek the leadership, together with Dan Tehan, although it always seemed clear Dutton had the numbers.
• The Nationals party room will meet on Tuesday, which could see a challenge to Barnaby Joyce’s leadership from David Littleproud or Michael McCormack. However, the ABC reports it has been put to McCormack that it would be preferable to have a “fresh start”. Mike Foley of the Age/Herald reports Keith Pitt might put his name forward on the “off chance” that Joyce declines to stand, positioning himself as the heir to Joyce’s skepticism on net zero carbon emissions.
• Following her win over Labor’s Kristina Keneally as an independent for Fowler, it has been noted that Dai Le asserted on her Section 44 checklist as part of her nomination for the election that she had never been a citizen or subject of a country other than Australia. Queried by The Australian, constitutional law expert Anne Twomey offered the inuitively obvious point that this seemed unlikely given she was born in Vietnam in 1968 and remained there until her family fled in 1975. However, while a nomination may be rejected if a prospective candidate does not complete the checklist and provide supporting documentation is required, it would not appear a nomination is retrospectively invalidated if the information provided was later shown to be incomplete. The sole point at issue is whether Le does in fact have Vietnamese citizenship, which would appear unlikely based on the account of Sydney barrister Dominic Villa.
• The projections of both the ABC and myself are that Labor will win the final two-party preferred count by 51.8-48.2, from a swing to Labor of 3.3%. This is derived from two-candidate preferred counts between Labor and the Coalition in seats where one is available and estimates of other parties’ preference flows where they are not. I have Labor winning by 51.3-48.7 in New South Wales, a swing of 3.0%; 53.9-46.1 in Victoria, a swing of 0.8%; the Coalition winning 54.3-45.7 in Queensland, a swing to Labor of 4.1%; Labor winning 54.7-45.3 in Western Australia, a swing of 10.2% (their first win in the state since 1987 and best result since 1983); 53.9-46.1 in South Australia, a swing of 3.2%; and 53.8-46.2 in Tasmania, a swing to the Coalition of 2.1%.
B.S. Fairman @ #2839 Sunday, May 29th, 2022 – 6:55 pm
Fewer and fewer voters left who know who he was – or that as a fully trained Militia Officer he resigned his commission on the outbreak of WW1.
Yes his brothers went to WW1 and his family decided he would ‘stay’ in Australia. But interesting given how bitter the issue of conscription became and its lingering impact on Catholic Irish Australians for many decades.
“Catholics need not apply” features in many many job ads of subsequent years – viewable on microfiche etc from the likes of the Mitchell Library in Sydney and elsewhere of course.
BK says:
Sunday, May 29, 2022 at 6:17 pm
“I’m looking forward to seeing a mature, balanced, decent, conciliatory, genuine PM on the job.”
Agreed, it’s really not too much to ask for and expect is it? I too have considerable hopes in this regard.
I worked Player One out years ago. Everyone else seems to have as well but Player One is so needy they keep turning up. I just think it’s sad.
Cronus @ #2851 Sunday, May 29th, 2022 – 7:09 pm
I think people in general have looked around the world and realised that we can go down the path of the rest of the world, or we can know that we can create paradise on earth here in Australia if we just try. The first step was to elect a government to lead us in that direction.
”Lets hope these sentiments age well –
……………….
Anthony Albanese on course for at least six years in power
By David Crowe”
Let’s hope so. Claims regarding the expected longevity of the Rudd, Turnbull and Morrison administrations didn’t.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/05/26/week-zero/comment-page-56/#comment-3928497
… pretty sure they’d have to get ashore first for that?
Never never subs?
Stand off weaponry.
OTH radar/ Star Wars.
TBMD.
For years, Australia has been on the RN/ USN/ USMC, Singapore on the USAF, and Germany on USAr/ Reforger[/ Fulda Gap JSF included] model.
C@T
“This has been exactly my line of thought. Set the targets as promised, create an environment which allows business to get on with the job of putting in place the mechanics of emissions reduction and then watch as Australia meets and beats the new target.
Upgrade the target as we do so.”
+1, pragmatic. After all, nobody says we can’t exceed the targets.
Steve777 @ #2854 Sunday, May 29th, 2022 – 7:12 pm
And I remember similar things being said about the Howard govt after 2004 election when they won control of the Senate.
Methane is much more potent as a Greenhouse gas for the few decades while it persists – before oxidising to Co2 -at least 20x.
I’d like to feel confident that a whole lot more methane isn’t leaking from current and old extraction eg fracking with its zillions of wells. Even more of the world’s methane ‘output’ is unaccounted for than CO2, though understanding of natural sources and cycles is also not complete. But any reduction is welcome and big reduction will buy us a little time.
Over time we -as part of the West – are going to have to transfer the technology, and assist in writing off the fossil fuel infrastructure in poorer countries and funding its replacement – then selling them green hydrogen, eg -= , or watch the Chinese do it.
Edit:
Better yet we can learn how to cooperate on the task
Anyway, we beat the Berries at Belmore this arvo, and Collingwood knocked over Carlton. Jasper decided that a womans leg deserved watering at the beach, and to top it off P1s knickers are around her ankles. Good times.
Cronus @ #2856 Sunday, May 29th, 2022 – 7:12 pm
Exactly. The way some carry on you’d think 43% by 2030 was the upper limit! We have 8 years to get there and I believe, if we keep Labor in power to get the job done, we will do it easily.
Full Anthony Albanese interview from Sky News. A breath of fresh air!
https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/politics/anthony-albanese-speaks-exclusively-to-kieran-gilbert-on-china-in-the-pacific-region-boat-turnbacks-and-kristina-keneally/news-story/a2fd198926744eb53e1ed3d1eaff9633
By the way, did anyone notice Darren Chester now holds the second-safest coalition seat in Australia? The margin in Gippsland is over 20%, behind only Maranoa. This is a seat Labor actually thought they could win in the early days of the Rudd govt.
I have issues with the Greens, but it’s insane for anyone even slightly left of centre to preference the Liberals before the them.
It’s insane for anyone who isn’t on the far Right to preference the Liberals ahead of the Greens.
“ By the way, did anyone notice Darren Chester now holds the second-safest coalition seat in Australia? The margin in Gippsland is over 20%, behind only Maranoa. This is a seat Labor actually thought they could win in the early days of the Rudd govt.”
Why the fuck the National Party deserves THAT seat is one of the universes great mysteries. However, it is evidence that the bush needs its own ‘Teal’ movement as a counterpoint to the Tories. The ‘voices of’ movement out of Indi is a good start. The Shooters actually showed some promise (but it seems the fuckwit factor has won out there).
For the life of me, how anyone in the bush – at least those folk who are not actively sucking on the teat of national party rorts in Cotton, Coal, Cane or live export cattle – actually vote for those fuckwits is astonishing. Especially if your livelihood is in the central or southern basins of the Murray-Darling.
Tom the first and best says:
Sunday, May 29, 2022 at 5:36 pm
For a Liberal-ALP preference deal to destroy the Nationals, a number of thing have to happen:
The LNP in Queensland has to demerge. There can`t be Liberal versus National contests or Liberals preferencing the ALP ahead of the Nationals in many of the Nationals seats without a demerger.
The Liberals need to scrap the Coalition agreement and run in all Nationals seats.
The Liberals need to attract significant primary votes in currently Nationals held seats, with the break up of the Coalition and preference deal being public knowledge.
In seats where the Liberals come third (on 3CP, the Nats would probably get a lot of preferences, particularly from One Nation) behind the Nats and the ALP, a high percentage of the Liberal voters would have to follow the how to vote cards preferencing the ALP.
The rate of ALP voters preferencing the National ahead of the Liberals in Liberal versus National contests would have to be low.
I believe that the above things mostly have a low chance of happening, despite centrists projection of their own views.
*********
I broadly agree with that. In addition, Boerwar’s maths is just wrong. Labor can’t win his estimated 10 extra seats from the 4 the Greens hold. In addition, of those 4 Bandt won despite Lib preferencing him ahead of Labor and Lib preferences will not be distributed in Brisbane, Ryan or, probably, Griffith.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #2827 Sunday, May 29th, 2022 – 6:50 pm
It could be Long Covid. Or it could be this:
The study was published online May 23 in Nature Medicine.
This Long Covid study produced these findings:
https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/973598
”And I remember similar things being said about the Howard govt after 2004 election when they won control of the Senate.”
I’ll see that and raise – I can remember similar things being said about Whitlam in 1973.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #2845 Sunday, May 29th, 2022 – 7:00 pm
Thank you. Can we assume from this that you are finally going to give up your ridiculous obsession?
Somehow, I don’t think so 🙁
“ This has been exactly my line of thought. Set the targets as promised, create an environment which allows business to get on with the job of putting in place the mechanics of emissions reduction and then watch as Australia meets and beats the new target.
Upgrade the target as we do so.”
I think upgrading the 2030 target will soon become redundant: 2035 and 2040 will be where it’s at. So, if Albo manages to do all you suggest – and that seems to be the plan – there are likely to be some very solid reductions between 2030-40.
Once THAT happens, maybe we can actually focus on the main environmental game for Australia: mass deforestation and species extinction. Which, further to my previous anti NP post, needs the destruction of the Nats as a viable political force in this country: why we need a massive Teal (city) – “voices” (rural) movement to drive a stake through the heart of evil-stupid.
“ Thank you. Can we assume from this that you are finally going to give up your ridiculous obsession?”
Nope. I’ll continue to expose your hypocrisy with this simple question whenever you stick your head up over the parapet.
Queensland LNP happened because the Liberals got thrashed in Queensland. We now have the situation where the Nationals are the senior partner.
Should the Nationals stay in coalition with the Liberals is the question to address.
Yep P1 is a twit.
Like Mod Lib before her. Very similar MO.
Contrarian, shapeshifter and ultimately stupid. Use of caps and italics, ho hum.
Let her go.
Re Andrew Earlwood ”…how anyone in the bush – at least those folk who are not actively sucking on the teat of national party rorts in Cotton, Coal, Cane or live export cattle – actually vote for those fuckwits is astonishing. Especially if your livelihood is in the central or southern basins of the Murray-Darling”
Labor and Centrist independent candidates need to say that (not necessarily using those exact words).
Cat, Cronus
Also +1 on GHG targets vs means to achieve them. The grid upgrades Labor propose are critical to any targets being met.
Labor’s targets could easily be exceeded in practice, as GHG reductions with the CPRS were under Gillard.
THere is a large private sector willingness to invest, if there is the means to do so. The Liberals have spent ten years strangling that means.
Taking actions to reduce emissions in transport and land use is a bigger issue than targets.
Fossil fuels are characterised by power imbalances – everyone bows to the tycoon – and Germany doesn’t want to be hostage to the ambitions of the producers any more, having finally taken the lesson from the Ukraine war
War increases the oil price. And up to now it has prolonged the use of oil. Putin’s previous manoeuvres were rewarded with increased dependence. The US turned to huge gas guzzlers after the 2nd Iraq war.
The Saudis also play double or nothing, while they have the power.
In a system where most people, and countries, can produce their own energy, who knows, peace may break out some day
outside left says:
Sunday, May 29, 2022 at 7:15 pm
Anyway, we beat the Berries at Belmore this arvo, and Collingwood knocked over Carlton. Jasper decided that a womans leg deserved watering at the beach, and to top it off P1s knickers are around her ankles. Good times.
___________________-
William are comments like the above and AE’s bullying of P1 acceptable? I would have thought most reasonable people would say they are beyond the pale.
Talking of stupid political strategies, I commend the following to the Liberal campaign review:
“Victorian Liberal MP Tim Smith, who was sidelined by his party’s leader after crashing his car into the fence of a Hawthorn home while drunk last year, has said he still wants a future in politics but that his party should abandon inner-city seats like his own and focus on outer suburbs…….”
Nothing says “resurgence” more than telling your previous base that you always despised them.
Lars Von Trier says:
___________________-
William are comments like the above and AE’s bullying of P1 acceptable? I would have thought most reasonable people would say they are beyond the pale.
______
outside left is a disgrace.
Re Gippsland. Labor managed a bare 2pp majority in Morwell. Quite a drop from the past when it was rock solid Labor. Moe to a lesser extent. Coal and logging is no doubt the reason.
For those who think im being overly critical of Dutton’s physical transformation to the reptilian order, I actually resemble ScoMo in appearance. Especially that picture above. …
Andrew_Earlwood says:
Sunday, May 29, 2022 at 8:03 pm
For those who think im being overly critical of Dutton’s physical transformation to the reptilian order, I actually resemble ScoMo in appearance. Especially that picture above. …
______
Good.
On how many terms this government will get: I recall back in the days of late 2007/early 2008 (can’t remember exactly when) when I was a naive 24-year-old, chatting to a friend and asserting that the new government of Kevin Rudd will be around for about a decade or so. In my mind, Rudd would be PM for about a decade and then, after that, maybe Gillard would get a term or two before they eventually outstay their welcome and the Coalition came back. My logic was simple, the two most recent governments (of opposite parties) stuck around for ages and that Labor under Rudd has taken a cautious, pragmatic, more centrist approach so far (and won’t do anything too controversial too early.) Of course, we know how that turned out.
I can also recall a few incidents of similar overconfidence from Liberals in the past too, including Chris Kenny gloating in the aftermath of the 2018 SA state election that Steven Marshall has won himself at least two terms because the swing required for Labor to win next time is ‘too high’.
Anyway, my point is: nobody knows what’s going to happen at the next election. We don’t know, to the full extent, what kinds of things that those in power will do over the next three years (whether positive or negative). Nor do we know what is going to happen in the country or the world over the next three years that might shape outcomes.
@nath:
“ Good”
Your mother.
Shut up AE u fat bastard.
Boerwar @ #2824 Sunday, May 29th, 2022 – 4:49 pm
So is Hunger Games!!!
As a movie.
Once THAT happens, maybe we can actually focus on the main environmental game for Australia: mass deforestation and species extinction. Which, further to my previous anti NP post, needs the destruction of the Nats as a viable political force in this country: why we need a massive Teal (city) – “voices” (rural) movement to drive a stake through the heart of evil-stupid.
And, as a previous post of mine postulated, it’s looking like the Liberals are focusing their attention on winning seats from the Nats in the Regional Cities, which may accelerate their hoped-for demise, as the turn of the Country Party into The Nationals and away from representing Farmers towards representing Miners, was the bastard child of Gina Reinhardt and Barnaby Joyce which has dragged Australia down the drain in recent times. At least the Liberals, if they’re smart, might eschew this direction as Thermal Coal becomes a stranded asset. They have to get some new seats from somewhere.
Which bit? The lady at the beach took it very well, just a case of dogs being dogs.The Bulldogs?, Carlton? Or P1? Being called out by Nath and Edwina is a hoot.
outside left @ #2889 Sunday, May 29th, 2022 – 8:16 pm
Yes, it’s as if THEY are as pure as the driven snow! 😆
https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/05/26/week-zero/comment-page-58/#comment-3928586
Gippsland is not in the Murray-Darling Basin, it is on the other side of the Great Dividing Range. It also has Victoria`s brown coal power stations. Victoria also has a more reasonable class of Nat than further North. Back in 1970 the then Country Party even preferenced the ALP ahead of the Liberal Party, causing the ALP to win 3 seats in western Victoria in the Legislative Assembly and Gippsland Province in the Legislative Council.
Pretty frothy tonight. Ho hum.
“ Gippsland is not in the Murray-Darling Basin, it is on the other side of the Great Dividing Range.”
Sorry, if you thought I was implying that Gippsland was in the MDB. I was actually moving onto another point.
Vict nats may well be a differnt species, but they still enable the four Cs. Time they were held to account for THAT.
“ Shut up AE u fat bastard”
Your momma likes it.
Andrew_Earlwood says:
Sunday, May 29, 2022 at 8:25 pm
“ Shut up AE u fat bastard”
Your momma likes it.
______
I won’t reciprocate with nasty stuff about your mom. I was raised better.
Nath ………
Since the death of the SEC, the whole of the Latrobe Valley is post industrial…
Narracan, years ago, was among the the safest Country Party State seats in the country…..
The population around Morwell-Newborough-Moe are remnants from an era when the SEC was mighty and before it meant Slow East and Comfortable…
This area, like the vegetation, is returning to more bucolic times………
Eventually, the Open Cuts will return to nature an no more smoke will billow from the many power stations……
About 100 years of continuous pollution since the first power stations went into Yallourn…..
I will say however, that your naval uniform is getting a bit tight.
Outside left is NSW Labor legend. How dare Lars and the other LNP trolls attempt to soil his good name
Barney in Tanjung Bunga says:
Sunday, May 29, 2022 at 8:12 pm
Boerwar @ #2824 Sunday, May 29th, 2022 – 4:49 pm
There are plenty of Labor voter who would love to help the Liberals get rid of the Nationals. There are plenty of Liberal voters who would love to help Labor get rid of the Greens.
The tactic of a targeted preference swap would help achieve this outcome.
Now, I can understand why the Nationals and the Greens get abusive about this idea. After all, they like gaming the rules the way they are now.
But, as everyone keeps saying, this election took all the old rules off the table.
There is no sound reason for Liberals and Labor not to join to put a stop to the rot of the growing band of extremists threatening to run amok with their disproportionate, destructive and arrogant demands.
The Liberals are themselves a hopefully shrinking band of extremists. There is no such thing as a ‘moderate’ Liberal. They are a corrupt, deceitful, narrow, prejudiced, dishonest, Pentecostal, ideological and reactionary bunch of incompetents and cowards.
The idea is to defeat them, not to mulch, water and fertilise them.