The Australian reports the final Newspoll of the campaign has Labor leading 53-47, which compares with 54-46 a week ago (and 51.5-48.5 in the erroneous pre-election Newspoll in 2019). The primary votes are Coalition 35% (steady), Labor 36% (down two), Greens 12% (up one), One Nation 5% (down one) and United Australia Party 3% (steady). The two leaders are tied at 42% on preferred prime minister, after Scott Morrison led 43-42 a week ago. Scott Morrison is down one on approval to 41% and up one on disapproval to 54%, while Anthony Albanese is up three on approval to 41% and down three on disapproval to 46%. The poll was conducted Friday to Thursday from a larger than usual sample of 2188.
This is presumably the final data point to be entered to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which continues to credit Labor with a two-party preferred lead of 53.5-46.5, which I’ll believe when I see. Its primary votes are Labor 36.3%, Coalition 34.9%, Greens 11.7% and One Nation 4.0% (and United Australia Party 3.2%, but I don’t include that in the display). Both leaders have net negative approval ratings on the leadership trends, Scott Morrison at minus 7.3% and Anthony Albanese at minus 5.9%, with Morrison at plus 5.4% and Albanese at minus 5.4% on the all-or-nothing preferred prime minister result.
We have also had today a report from Roy Morgan in which they relate they have “continued interviewing throughout this week but there has been no evidence of a swing to the L-NP seen in previous weeks continuing during the final week of the campaign”. The report then proceeds to reiterate the results of the poll that was released on Tuesday, which fooled me into thinking this was a new set of result, but apparently not. Hat tip to Adrian Beaumont for pointing this out and apologies to anyone who misled by the original version of this post.
After a day punting, the tradies are in the front bar bragging and tipping some of their cash onto their man ScoMo.
They have NFI, but they do have a SportsBet account
_michaels_ @ #1486 Saturday, May 21st, 2022 – 5:09 pm
Got it. Though it didn’t make it into the first set of lists (which I’ll put up here in a bit.)
Labor out to $1.44
Coalition $3.25
Antony is on screen!
Evan says:
Saturday, May 21, 2022 at 5:14 pm
Folks, I couldn’t wait any longer. I wanted to wait till 6pm to crack open my first beer. But I’m bored and nervous about tonight, so have opened a cold frothy one.
Can we declare the first PB Piss heads Club meeting open, or do we need to wait for an exit poll?
BTRProducer – I second your motion, I’m on to my 2nd beer already, Pi – similar to you.
What’s everyone doing for dinner tonight, or food in general?
________________________
No Beer for me today, going the sparking with dash of juice for company, just tested out a homemade chicken, avo, bacon and ham pizza on keto friendly base as I couldn’t wait till 6pm, snacks on standby for later including the retro cheese cubes/cabana and pickled onions on sticks
Had to go out and do gardening as this election does make one very nervous even rang my dad and told him i dug a hole.
Another word of advice: when Antony Green puts up the first results from some obscure booth in a safe National Party seat in NSW or Qld, don’t make too much of it.
I hope Marion Scrymgour is elected. I know her and reckon she’ll do a great job in federal parliament.
Evan @ #1517 Saturday, May 21st, 2022 – 3:14 pm
We went for a stroll down to Wray av to kill some time, had a light snack and a beer. been home for a hour and just opened a Tiger, should be primed for a hazy pale by 4.
I’ll make some burgers later on as long as I haven’t assumed the foetal position calling for my dear departed mother.
OK, voted the labor ticket in Clarke just down at the church in south Hobart. Everyone was orderly. It’s cold as hell, I hope they have a good heater for the count tonight.
Final hopeful prediction based on the vibe of the joint.
Wilkie will get in, maybe on less of a margin.
80+ for the ALP. Lots of indies.
Notable Notes:
Tim Wilson gets the boot, everyone will have a drink.
The loose unit @ #1553 Saturday, May 21st, 2022 – 5:25 pm
Has he called the election yet?
sprocket_says:
Saturday, May 21, 2022 at 5:24 pm
“After a day punting, the tradies are in the front bar bragging and tipping some of their cash onto their man ScoMo.
They have NFI, but they do have a SportsBet account”
And they will have a double hangover tomorrow (doG willing)
BeaglieBoy @ #1540 Saturday, May 21st, 2022 – 5:21 pm
I think you’ve had too many already to tell the time.
PB GUESSING GAME, May-20 22:29
PV (FINAL)
ALP | LNP | GRN | ONP | UAP | Teal
37.4 | 35.1 | 11.2 | 4.0 | 5.5 | 4.0 Median
36.5 | 37.0 | 11.0 | 4.0 | — | — Mode
37.1 | 35.3 | 11.4 | 4.2 | 5.5 | 4.0 Mean
39.5 | 37.0 | 13.0 | 5.0 | 6.0 | 4.0 Max
34.0 | 31.0 | 10.0 | 3.9 | 5.0 | 4.0 Min
19 Respondents
ALP | LNP | GRN | ONP | UAP | Teal
37.5| 37.0| — |— |— | allin127 (May-16 00:27)
37.1| 35.1| 10.0| — |— | BeaglieBoy (May-16 14:13)
38.7| — | — | — | — | Dr Doolittle (May-20 22:29)
37.4| 34.7| 11.3| — | — | Edward Boyce (May-15 15:01)
36.5| 35.0| 11.5| — | — | Geetroit (May-16 17:45)
38.3| 36.2| 10.5| — | — | Hugoaugogo (May-16 15:19)
37.0| 37.0| — | — | — | JayC (May-16 20:29)
34.0| 34.0| 13.0| — | — | Kevin Bonham (per bc) (May-17 01:41)
38.6| — | — | — | — | King OMalley (May-16 17:40)
35.0| — | — | — | — | Lynchpin (May-18 05:02)
38.4| — | — | — | — | max (May-16 14:05)
35.3| 34.9| — | — | — | Mexicanbeemer (May-20 14:20)
34.0| 37.0| 12.0| 5.0| 5.0| mj (May-17 00:10)
36.3| 35.2| 11.1| 3.9| — | Paul The Avenger (May-20 20:39)
36.5| 35.0| 11.0| 4.0| — | Quiet Australian (May-20 19:49)
38.0| 36.0| — | — | — | Sandman (May-16 20:15)
38.0| 31.0| 13.0| 4.0| 6.0| 4.0 subgeometer (May-17 12:37)
39.5| 35.0| 11.0| — | — | Tazza (May-16 22:37)
39.0| 36.0| — | — | — | The loose unit (May-16 17:12)
I also want to know about Nath’s offer of exotic entertainment. Sounds like something I can get into after a night of drinking.
Always remember The Chaser skit that said with 0.0% of the vote counted it’s too close to call.
LNP odds coming right in
PB GUESSING GAME, May-21 16:16
TPP (FINAL)
ALP 53.0 to 47.0 LNP Median
ALP 53.2 to 46.8 LNP Mode
ALP 53.1 to 46.9 LNP Mean
ALP 55.4 to 49.0 LNP Max
ALP 51.0 to 44.6 LNP Min
70 Respondents
ALP / LNP
53.5 / 46.5 Adrian Beaumont (May-16 17:31)
53.4 / 46.6 allin127 (May-16 00:27)
53.0 / 47.0 Andrew_Earlwood (May-17 09:03)
52.5 / 47.5 Asha (May-21 09:22)
53.1 / 46.9 BeaglieBoy (May-16 14:13)
52.5 / 47.5 BK (May-16 17:36)
53.5 / 46.5 Bludging (May-19 13:01)
53.2 / 46.8 Boinzo (May-17 11:35)
52.7 / 47.3 Capt Moonlight (May-20 23:02)
52.9 / 47.1 Cronus (May-16 18:54)
53.7 / 46.3 Dandy Murray-Honeydew (May-17 09:54)
52.3 / 47.7 deicntrl (May-21 15:02)
54.4 / 45.6 d-money (May-15 18:57)
52.7 / 47.3 Douglas and Milko (May-17 15:46)
53.1 / 46.9 Dr Doolittle (May-20 22:29)
53.2 / 46.8 DRDR (May-21 11:49)
54.8 / 45.2 Edward Boyce (May-15 15:01)
53.5 / 46.5 Evan (May-16 17:34)
52.8 / 47.2 Expat Follower (May-16 17:03)
52.2 / 47.8 Geetroit (May-16 17:45)
55.4 / 44.6 GlenO (May-15 22:29)
52.5 / 47.5 Historyintime (May-15 22:29)
53.2 / 46.8 Hugoaugogo (May-16 15:19)
53.0 / 47.0 imacca (May-17 11:39)
52.0 / 48.0 It’s Time (May-17 10:20)
52.0 / 48.0 Jan (May-17 10:25)
51.0 / 49.0 JayC (May-16 20:29)
53.0 / 47.0 JM from QLD (May-17 11:04)
53.5 / 46.5 Just Quietly (May-20 21:55)
53.0 / 47.0 Kevin Bonham (per bc) (May-17 01:41)
53.2 / 46.8 Kevin Bonham (per max) (May-21 07:02)
53.7 / 46.3 King OMalley (May-15 22:05)
53.7 / 46.3 King OMalley (May-16 17:40)
51.9 / 48.1 Lars Von Trier (May-15 18:46)
54.1 / 45.9 Luke (May-16 19:19)
52.0 / 48.0 Lynchpin (May-18 05:02)
52.4 / 47.6 max (May-16 14:05)
53.4 / 46.6 Mexicanbeemer (May-20 14:20)
54.3 / 45.7 mj (May-17 00:10)
53.7 / 46.3 Mr Mysterious (May-20 21:53)
54.3 / 45.7 Mr. Curlew (May-15 22:10)
52.3 / 47.7 Ophuph Hucksake (May-16 18:30)
52.4 / 47.6 Outsider (May-16 17:26)
52.9 / 47.1 Paul The Avenger (May-20 20:39)
53.6 / 46.4 PaulTu (May-16 15:24)
53.0 / 47.0 Pica (May-16 14:47)
52.2 / 47.8 Poll Bogan (May-18 17:53)
55.0 / 45.0 PuffyTMD (May-15 20:59)
55.0 / 45.0 Puffytmd (May-16 21:30)
53.2 / 46.8 Quiet Australian (May-20 19:49)
53.5 / 46.5 Rossmore (May-17 10:23)
52.2 / 47.8 SA Bludger (May-16 17:59)
51.9 / 48.1 Sandman (May-16 20:15)
52.5 / 47.5 Sceptic (WB??) (May-16 18:43)
51.9 / 48.1 Seadog (May-19 22:19)
53.2 / 46.8 sonar (May-15 18:31)
52.3 / 47.7 steve davis (May-16 17:15)
52.5 / 47.5 steve davis (May-16 17:40)
55.4 / 44.6 subgeometer (May-17 12:37)
54.5 / 45.5 Tazza (May-16 22:37)
53.0 / 47.0 The loose unit (May-16 17:12)
51.9 / 48.1 The Silver Bodgie (May-21 13:21)
54.3 / 45.8 Tom (May-16 18:23)
54.3 / 45.7 True Believer (May-21 16:16)
52.0 / 48.0 Voodoo Blues (May-21 02:10)
52.4 / 47.6 Work To Rule (May-17 08:21)
53.4 / 46.6 yabba (May-17 12:08)
52.8 / 47.2 Zwaktyld (May-21 15:32)
53.2 / 46.8 zztopless (May-21 09:29)
PB GUESSING GAME, May-20 22:29
SEAT COUNTS (OTN)
ALP | LNP | KAP | GRN | CA | Teal|other
79| 54| 1| 1| 1| 3| 6 Median
84| 50| 1| 1| 1| – | 6 Mode
78| 54| 1| 1| 1| 3| 6 Mean
87| 64| 1| 1| 1| 3| 8 Max
65| 43| 1| 1| 1| 3| 2 Min
14 Respondents
ALP | LNP | KAP | GRN | CA | Teal|other
77 | 59 | — | 1 | — | — | 8 Douglas and Milko (May-17 15:46)
— | — | — | — | — | — | — Dr Doolittle (May-20 22:29)
80 | 50 | — | — | — | — | 7 Edward Boyce (May-15 15:01)
71 | 64 | — | — | — | — | 6 Geetroit (May-16 17:45)
75 | 60 | — | — | — | — | 6 Hugoaugogo (May-16 15:19)
65 | 58 | 1 | 1 | 1 | — | 2 Late Riser (May-18 12:39)
76 | 63 | — | — | — | — | 7 max (May-16 14:05)
83 | 51 | — | 1 | — | — | 8 Mexicanbeemer (May-20 14:20)
80 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — Puffytmd (May-16 21:30)
— | — | — | — | — | — | — Quiet Australian (May-20 19:49)
79 | — | — | — | — | — | — SA Bludger (May-17 19:48)
84 | 43 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 subgeometer (May-17 12:37)
87 | 50 | 1 | 1 | 1 | — | 4 Tazza (May-16 22:37)
77 | 54 | — | 1 | — | — | 5 yabba (May-17 12:08)
Polls closed on Norfolk Island half an hour ago (part of one of the Canberra seats) and JUST closed on
Lord Howe Island.
Decision time is upon us.
Kevin Bonham:
I will be doing live blogging for the Mercury from c. 6:30 pm. The link to the live coverage will be posted here, together with a link to the tweet linking to it. I am not sure yet how long the coverage will go or whether I will need to take any breaks to write articles. I may also pop up on Twitter during quiet moments (@kevinbonham) but this is not guaranteed. The format of the blogging is not known to me yet and may be
The live blog is paywalled and I don’t know if there will be a paywall free link or not. Subscription options are available.
Once the live blog has finished I will go home and, after a break, late night coverage will continue on this site for as long as I can manage it. Postcount threads will be unrolled overnight or tomorrow through the day in order of interest to me, with a special focus on messy three-cornered seats and a single thread for the vanilla postcount seats.
For booth data, keep an eye on Pollbludger. If the PB booth feed works, it will be far better than anything else out there and I will make heavy use of it.
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2022/05/election-night-arrangements-and.html
The next one’s a big one. I’ll give it a minute… 🙂
My guess is the LNP odds are coming in because everyone’s placing bets to take advantage of the high pay out.
It doesn’t reflect any insider knowledge about the result.
I’m almost considering a punt just for shits and giggles.
Nobody really knows the odds that the polls are wrong again by 3 or more in the Coalition’s favour, which is what the Coalition bet implies (even 3 might not be enough). People are making their own judgment of what is too long not to take.
The betting markets last time were ridiculous for polling that didn’t even need anything like as big an error as occurred for the Coalition to hold. The betting this time is giving the Coalition better odds on much worse polling – entirely due to the increased perception of error likelihood, nothing more nothing less.
The betting odds in other words don’t tell you anything.
The live odds will move more quickly than pundits are prepared to call once we have real votes data, no doubt. The pundits have to worry about going early and being embarrassed.
If you look at the odds for who will form government
Lib/nats majority $7
Labor $1.70
Seems alot of contradictions in the betting to me , that the betting has no clue
Guys, the betting knows absolutely nothing. They have no results. Ppl are just betting now, on the off chance, that it’ll be the same as last time. 99.99% of them have no idea that the pollsters changed their M.O.s It is simply like taking lottery tickets ffs!
Also – if a ‘move’ starts, a lot of mugs get on thinking other people know something and they don’t want to miss out.
Stop giving it any credence
That’s 4 western time by the way, we have to start early here.
I’ve lost the edit function since I started using c+ Any clues?
So we’re in the right place then. 😀
PB GUESSING GAME, May-21 16:38
SEAT COUNTS (FINAL)
ALP | LNP | KAP | GRN | CA | Teal|other
80| 61| 1| 1| 1| 3| 7 Median
80| 60| 1| 1| 1| 2| 6 Mode
80| 60| 370| 1| 1| 4| 7 Mean
99| 79| 150| 8| 1| 14| 17 Max
0| 0| 1| 0| 0| 0| 0 Min
137 Respondents
ALP | LNP | KAP | GRN | CA | Teal|other
84 | 56 | 1 | 2 | 1 | — | 7 A different Michael (May-21 16:16)
79 | 61 | 1 | 2 | 1 | — | 7 A WA Archaeologist (May-20 21:15)
82 | 60 | — | 1 | — | — | 8 AB (May-16 22:01)
85 | 54 | — | 1 | — | — | 11 Adda (May-21 07:03)
85 | — | — | — | — | — | — Adrian Beaumont (May-16 17:31)
79 | 61 | 1 | 2 | 1 | — | 6 AEF forecast (mj) (May-21 05:58)
83 | 60 | — | — | — | — | 8 allin127 (May-16 00:27)
91 | 52 | 1 | 1 | — | 4 | 2 Alpha Zero (May-19 14:57)
81 | — | — | — | — | — | — Andrew_Earlwood (May-17 09:03)
82 | 57 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 Arky (May-20 18:11)
80 | 60 | 1 | 1 | 1 | — | 8 Asha (May-21 09:22)
80 | 58 | 1 | 3 | 1 | — | 8 Assantdj (May-21 16:38)
82 | 56 | — | — | — | — | 13 B.S. Fairman (May-17 12:24)
80 | 63 | — | 1 | — | 2 | 5 BeaglieBoy (May-16 14:13)
91 | — | — | — | — | — | — Been There (May-20 20:10)
95 | 50 | — | 1 | — | — | 5 Big A Adrian (May-20 10:10)
77 | — | — | — | — | — | — BK (May-16 17:36)
99 | 36 | — | 1 | — | 14 | 1 Bludging (May-19 13:01)
73 | 72 | — | 1 | — | — | 5 bluepill (May-16 18:15)
78 | 68 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | — Bluey (May-20 17:43)
81 | 60 | — | 1 | — | — | 9 Boinzo (May-17 11:35)
85 | 58 | — | 1 | — | — | 7 boomin (May-21 16:35)
78 | 65 | — | — | — | — | 8 BTRProducer (May-21 16:24)
85 | 50 | — | 2 | — | — | 14 BTSays (May-20 22:14)
90 | 55 | — | — | — | — | 6 bug1 (May-17 15:35)
83 | 60 | — | — | — | — | 8 cady (May-21 15:29)
80 | 61 | — | 1 | — | 2 | — Capt Moonlight (May-20 23:02)
— | — | — | 2 | — | — | — Catprog (May-21 09:35)
84 | 54 | 1 | 1 | 1 | — | 9 C-Dog (May-19 20:17)
77 | 65 | — | — | — | — | 9 centaur21 (May-17 11:52)
— | 51 | — | — | — | — | — Confessions (May-16 05:39)
80 | — | — | — | — | — | — Conor (May-21 06:09)
80 | 62 | 1 | 1 | 1 | — | — Conor (May-21 13:49)
79 | 62 | — | — | — | — | 10 Cronus (May-16 18:54)
79 | 62 | — | 1 | — | — | 9 Dandy Murray-Honeydew (May-17 09:54)
78 | 62 | — | 2 | — | — | 9 Dandy Murray-Honeydew (May-17 09:54)
74 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — Dave from Wagga (May-21 09:55)
77 | 66 | — | — | — | — | 8 deicntrl (May-21 15:02)
84 | — | — | — | — | — | — d-money (May-15 18:57)
79 | 62 | — | 1 | — | — | 9 Douglas and Milko (May-17 15:46)
84 | 55 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 Dr Doolittle (May-20 22:29)
81 | 59 | — | 1 | — | — | 10 Dr Fumbles Mcstupid (May-20 13:21)
77 | — | — | — | — | — | 3 Dr X (May-20 16:09)
80 | 60 | — | 2 | — | — | 9 DRDR (May-21 11:49)
87 | 55 | — | — | — | — | 9 Edward Boyce (May-15 15:01)
76 | 58 | — | — | — | — | 17 Elisa Choy (Election Whisperer) (May-20 19:27)
78 | — | — | — | — | — | — Evan (May-16 17:34)
81 | — | — | — | — | — | — Expat Follower (May-17 11:48)
78 | 65 | — | — | — | — | 8 Fargo61 (May-20 17:08)
95 | 44 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 frednk (May-16 23:21)
66 | 79 | 1 | 1 | 1 | — | 3 Freya Stark’s gut (May-19 15:19)
84 | 57 | 1 | 1 | 1 | — | 7 Freya Stark’s head (May-15 18:39)
73 | 69 | — | — | — | — | 9 Geetroit (May-16 17:45)
92 | 44 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 1 GlenO (May-15 22:29)
76 | 66 | — | — | — | — | 9 Goll (May-16 19:03)
81 | 48 | 1 | 8 | — | 5 | 8 Grant_ExLibris (May-17 12:53)
75 | 65 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 3 Guy Rundle (May-20 18:20)
82 | 61 | — | — | — | — | 8 Hugoaugogo (May-16 15:19)
85 | — | — | — | — | — | — Hugoaugogo (May-20 22:24)
78 | 64 | 1 | 2 | 1 | — | 5 IcanCU (May-19 21:22)
78 | 69 | — | — | — | — | 9 imacca (May-17 11:39)
76 | 70 | — | — | — | — | 5 It’s Time (May-17 10:20)
72 | 72 | — | 2 | — | — | 5 Jan (May-17 10:25)
74 | 69 | — | 2 | — | — | 6 JayC (May-16 20:29)
80 | 62 | — | 2 | — | 2 | 5 JM from QLD (May-17 11:04)
85 | 55 | — | — | — | — | 11 JP (May-21 13:03)
83 | 59 | — | — | — | 3 | 6 Just Quietly (May-20 21:55)
82 | — | — | — | — | — | — Kevin Bonham (per max) (May-21 07:02)
77 | — | — | — | — | — | — Kevin Bonham (per Ven) (May-19 10:03)
80 | — | — | — | — | — | — King OMalley (May-15 22:05)
86 | — | — | — | — | — | — King OMalley (May-16 17:40)
78 | — | — | — | — | — | — Lars Von Trier (May-15 18:46)
78 | 62 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 Late Riser (May-20 18:06)
80 | 63 | — | — | — | — | 8 lefty_e (May-20 21:05)
— | 51 | — | — | — | — | — ltep #1 (May-16 05:05)
70 | — | — | — | — | — | — ltep #2 (May-17 15:33)
82 | 61 | 1 | 1 | | | 6 Luke (May-16 19:19)
74 | 67 | 1 | 1 | 1 | — | 7 Magnetar (May-16 23:27)
77 | 66 | — | — | — | — | 7 Mark the Ballot (max) (May-20 22:21)
70 | 72 | 1 | 2 | — | 6 | — Matt (May-16 23:42)
70 | 72 | 1 | 2 | — | — | 6 Matt (May-17 13:04)
79 | 63 | — | 1 | — | 2 | 6 Mavis (May-21 12:33)
78 | 65 | — | — | — | — | 8 max (May-16 14:05)
72 | 70 | — | 2 | — | 4 | 3 meher baba (May-17 11:53)
83 | 53 | 1 | 1 | — | 7 | 6 Mexicanbeemer (May-20 14:20)
80 | 58 | — | 2 | — | — | 11 Mick Quinlivan (May-17 17:22)
82 | 58 | — | 2 | — | — | 9 mj (May-17 00:10)
84 | 58 | 1 | 1 | 1 | — | 6 Mr Mysterious (May-20 21:53)
78 | — | — | — | — | — | — Mr. Curlew (May-15 22:10)
75 | 75 | — | — | — | — | 1 mundo (May-17 12:09)
| |5150 | | | | NathanA (May-20 22:41)
79 | 62 | — | — | — | — | 10 Ophuph Hucksake (May-16 18:30)
81 | — | — | — | — | — | — outside left (May-17 07:16)
78 | — | — | — | — | — | — Outsider (May-16 17:26)
78 | 67 | — | — | — | — | 6 ozpmn (May-20 15:55)
81 | 61 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 Paul The Avenger (May-20 20:39)
79 | 63 | — | 2 | — | — | 7 PaulTu (May-16 15:24)
80 | 63 | — | — | — | — | 8 Peterjk23 (May-21 13:05)
91 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — Poliphili (May-20 17:09)
83 | 58 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 Poll Bogan (May-18 17:53)
81 | — | — | — | — | — | — Prince planet (May-20 21:16)
82 | 60 | — | 1 | — | 2 | 6 Puffytmd (May-16 21:30)
85 | 56 | 1 | 1 | 1 | — | 7 Quiet Australian (May-20 19:49)
84 | 57 | 1 | 1 | 1 | — | 7 Rakali (May-20 21:49)
80 | 60 | — | — | — | — | 11 Red13 (May-20 09:04)
73 | — | — | — | — | — | — Rocket Rocket (May-21 15:32)
82 | 59 | — | 1 | — | — | 9 Rossmore (May-17 10:23)
77 | 66 | — | — | — | — | 8 Sandman (May-16 20:15)
83 | — | — | — | — | — | — Sceptic (May-19 21:53)
82 | 56 | 1 | 2 | — | — | 9 Scomo a Go Go (May-21 02:12)
89 | — | — | — | — | — | — Scott (May-16 00:00)
— | 55 | — | — | — | — | — Scott (May-20 20:30)
77 | 61 | 1 | 1 | 1 | — | 8 Scott from Adelaide (May-20 07:56)
81 | 61 | 1 | 1 | 1 | — | 6 Scout (May-21 13:19)
78 | 63 | — | — | — | — | 10 Seadog (May-19 22:19)
83 | — | — | — | — | — | — Sigil (May-20 20:50)
80 | — | — | — | — | — | — sonar (May-15 18:31)
80 | 58 | 1 | 1 | — | 5 | 6 south (May-20 20:42)
89 | 51 | — | — | — | — | 11 STAR (May-20 12:11)
77 | — | — | — | — | — | — steve davis (May-16 17:40)
91 | 48 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 2 subgeometer (May-17 12:37)
74 | 68 | 1 | 1 | 1 | — | 6 T.D. Kerobatsos (May-20 16:13)
91 | 51 | 1 | 1 | 1 | — | 6 Tazza (May-16 22:37)
80 | 60 | — | — | — | — | 11 The loose unit (May-16 09:38)
82 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — The loose unit (May-16 17:12)
81 | 63 | — | — | — | — | 7 The Silver Bodgie (May-21 13:21)
74 | 67 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 Ticktock (May-19 19:27)
85 | 54 | — | — | — | — | 12 Toby Esterhase (May-17 12:00)
87 | 58 | — | — | — | — | 6 True Believer (May-21 16:16)
82 | — | — | — | — | — | — Upnorth (May-16 19:17)
71 | 70 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 Victor (May-17 00:47)
78 | 63 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 Voice Endeavour (May-20 13:15)
77 | 67 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 Voodoo Blues (May-21 02:10)
77 | 65 | — | — | — | — | 9 Work To Rule (May-17 08:21)
81 | 59 | — | 2 | — | — | 9 yabba (May-17 12:08)
82 | 58 | — | — | — | — | 11 Zwaktyld (May-21 15:32)
82 | — | — | — | — | — | — zztopless (May-21 09:29)
Has there been an exit poll yet?
Coalition on 3.15
Labor on 1.85 to get a majority
Bystander @ #1578 Saturday, May 21st, 2022 – 5:35 pm
not yet
There is two issues with the exit poll when it drops,
1/ What does it say
2/ How far wrong is it
We will only know the later latter tonight
Scott from Adelaide
Freya’s excitement is growing!
PB GUESSING GAME, May-21 16:38
WINNER DECLARED
74 Respondents
time
19:20 Scott (May-16 17:53)
19:30 Tazza (May-16 22:37)
19:34 davidwh (May-19 12:47)
19:36 Mexicanbeemer (May-19 12:31)
19:38 subgeometer (May-19 13:02)
19:39 boomin (May-21 16:35)
19:45 Sceptic (May-17 17:10)
20:00 max (May-16 14:05)
20:10 Voice Endeavour (2022-15-19 13:48)
20:10 zztopless (May-21 09:29)
20:15 d-money (May-15 18:57)
20:20 Douglas and Milko (May-17 15:46)
20:20 Tom (May-16 18:23)
20:25 Rossmore (May-17 10:23)
20:27 Capt Moonlight (May-20 23:02)
20:30 Alpha Zero (May-19 14:57)
20:30 Asha (May-19 12:30)
20:30 Been There (May-20 22:34)
20:30 Mavis (May-21 12:33)
20:30 Puffytmd (May-16 21:30)
20:32 DRDR (May-21 11:49)
20:35 BK (May-19 12:18)
20:35 GlenO (May-15 22:29)
20:37 Dr Doolittle (May-20 22:29)
20:37 Hugoaugogo (Jan-00 00:00)
20:41 Matt31 (May-19 12:53)
20:41 The Silver Bodgie (May-21 15:18)
20:42 Balding middle aged white man (May-18 21:47)
20:45 Mr. Curlew (May-15 22:10)
20:51 Taylormade (May-19 13:08)
20:52 JP (May-21 13:03)
21:00 Arky (May-19 14:23)
21:00 Historyintime (May-15 22:29)
21:00 mj (May-17 00:10)
21:00 yabba (May-17 12:08)
21:04 AB (May-19 12:33)
21:04 True Believer (May-21 16:16)
21:10 Poll Bogan (May-18 17:53)
21:10 Roger Miller (May-19 12:25)
21:12 ozpmn (May-20 15:55)
21:15 Assantdj (May-21 16:38)
21:15 Boinzo (May-17 11:35)
21:15 frednk (May-16 18:18)
21:15 Socrates (May-19 13:02)
21:20 Scout (May-21 15:26)
21:30 BTRProducer (May-19 20:49)
21:30 Goll (May-19 13:25)
21:30 JM from QLD (May-17 11:04)
21:30 Just Quietly (May-20 21:55)
21:30 Late Riser (May-18 12:39)
21:30 Luke (May-16 19:19)
21:30 SA Voter (May-19 12:57)
21:30 sonar (May-15 18:31)
21:30 The loose unit (May-16 17:12)
21:32 Des Devlin (May-19 13:22)
21:37 Mr Mysterious (May-20 21:53)
21:45 Big A Adrian (May-20 10:10)
21:45 King OMalley (May-15 22:05)
21:46 Dandy Murray-Honeydew (May-17 09:54)
21:55 Edward Boyce (May-15 15:01)
22:05 A different Michael (May-21 16:16)
22:10 Sandman (May-16 20:15)
22:15 BeaglieBoy (May-16 14:13)
22:15 Dr X (May-19 12:29)
22:15 Grant_ExLibris (May-17 12:53)
22:22 IcanCU (May-19 13:27)
22:25 Outsider (May-16 17:26)
22:30 Expat Follower (May-19 12:34)
22:30 Zwaktyld (May-21 15:32)
22:45 Ophuph Hucksake (May-16 18:30)
22:45 SA Bludger (May-18 20:24)
23:00 Bludging (May-19 13:01)
23:00 It’s Time (May-17 10:20)
2022-05-25 3:25:00 PM Lars Von Trier (May-19 13:26)
“ditto (I don’t think Antony Green is going to call the election Saturday night.
Scott from Adelaide)” mundo (May-19 12:45)
I don’t think Antony Green is going to call the election Saturday night. Scott from Adelaide (May-19 12:23)
I suspect we will know the result on Saturday evening, but I have been the opposite of right on occasion. ltep #1 (May-19 14:41)
I think there’s a good chance we may not have an actual declaration/concession/victory on Saturday… but it is likely to be clear what the outcome WILL be. jt1983 (May-19 13:35)
I won’t guess a time, but you can put me down for “AG battles misbehaving ABC Election Computer. Jaeger (May-19 13:19)
May 22 or later Don Key (May-19 12:57)
midday NathanA (May-20 22:41)
Monday, 2PM JayC (May-16 20:29)
No predictions from me. Confessions (May-19 12:49)
No predictions this time. Steve777 (May-16 21:08)
none Jan (May-17 10:25)
Nope Geetroit (May-16 17:45)
The aec results page is up – ITS TOO CLOSE TO CALL!
https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDefault-27966.htm
https://mobile.twitter.com/Cheshire_Kat11/status/1527913072362663937
Freya Stark just gagging for Labor to lose.
Exit poll results cannot be broadcast until polls close.
I think this prediction may get close to the mark
Lars Von Trier to feast on those who get their predictions wrong
Early exit polls were wrong in 2019 giving Labor the game…I remember it well as just one more scar to suffer from that night…….If people are thoughful, ignore exit polls as they have no rhyme or reason at all and rely heavily on what the respondents say…Could be true, could be not……
Bet fair has had about $100k matched in the last half hour on the election.
If this was an IPL game about to start, there would be close to $100m matched.
Penny gamblers
PB GUESSING GAME, May-20 10:10
WINNER CONCEDES
16 Respondents
TIME
20:30 Tazza, May-16 22:37
21:00 GlenO, May-15 22:29
22:00 max, May-16 14:05
22:00 mj, May-17 00:10
22:00 Puffytmd, May-16 21:30
22:20 King OMalley, May-15 22:05
22:30 sonar, May-15 18:31
22:38 Hugoaugogo, Jan-00 00:00
22:50 Douglas and Milko, May-17 15:46
23:00 Mr. Curlew, May-15 22:10
23:10 Edward Boyce, May-15 15:01
23:25 subgeometer, May-19 13:02
23:30 Late Riser, May-18 12:39
23:45 Alpha Zero, May-19 14:57
1st of June Geetroit, May-16 17:45
2022-05-24 11:00:00 AM yabba, May-17 12:08
2022-05-25 10:00:00 AM Outsider, May-16 17:26
don’t care BeaglieBoy, May-16 14:13
following Wednesday It’s Time, May-17 10:20
Morrison concedes: Tuesday week after the election is declared by the AEC. Bludging, May-19 13:01
NEVER d-money, May-15 18:57
NOT ON THE NIGHT Socrates, May-19 13:02
Sunday afternoon Grant_ExLibris, May-17 12:53
The big $ has consistently come for the LNP throughout this election even when it has not seemed logical. Because there was such a massive and quick plunge to Labor, punters are chucking a $50 on the Libs because they did the same thing in 2019 and won big time. They’re also used to betting on horses where a betting plunge means someone has the inside word. It’s why I love betting on politics, it’s so damn easy to make money (and yes I cashed in on ALP and the Libs last election)
WB’s booth feed better not go cactus, I’m relying on it.
Buckle up kids its gonna be a wild couple of hours.
Labor still $1.40 on Sportsbet.
I’m taking a break now. Back later…
Gee this is killing me.
Can’t have an ale because have to be up at 3 in the morning and I know if I start I won’t stop until the close of counting.
But if we get up boy tomorrow will be fun
Stuff the election, I’m more interested in the exotic entertainment Nath is offering.
BTRProducer/Beaglieboy/Upnorth/Boinzo/Pi – wish we were partying together right now, much more fun getting drunk when you are with a band of like minded lads.
Anything could happen from here, but being a Qld public servant who survived the Cando Newman s***storm I can say I had a bit of a stake in the ALP winning the last state election. Of course the courier was talking up the opposition LNP. They kept saying Townsville and North qld.would deliver government to the LNP. This time they are saying Qld won’t give Labor any seats, they’ve got me in the frame of mind that thinks the same
( especially after last time), but commonsense would say that if Scomoe is not liked elsewhere he won’t be liked in Qld. I think 3-4 seats up here is feasible and if that’s the case ALP should get 80 seats and LNP to lose 12 seats all up.
Bugger. That last one should say LOSER CONCEDES… urgh. Oh well….
Possum Comitatus @Pollytics
UAP will probably get results slightly higher than national polling, but it will be lumpy. Wouldn’t be surprised at all to see a few seats where it gets into the teens. ALP Working class outer suburbs on some lumps, and Lib places like the Gold Coast.