The Australian reports the final Newspoll of the campaign has Labor leading 53-47, which compares with 54-46 a week ago (and 51.5-48.5 in the erroneous pre-election Newspoll in 2019). The primary votes are Coalition 35% (steady), Labor 36% (down two), Greens 12% (up one), One Nation 5% (down one) and United Australia Party 3% (steady). The two leaders are tied at 42% on preferred prime minister, after Scott Morrison led 43-42 a week ago. Scott Morrison is down one on approval to 41% and up one on disapproval to 54%, while Anthony Albanese is up three on approval to 41% and down three on disapproval to 46%. The poll was conducted Friday to Thursday from a larger than usual sample of 2188.
This is presumably the final data point to be entered to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which continues to credit Labor with a two-party preferred lead of 53.5-46.5, which I’ll believe when I see. Its primary votes are Labor 36.3%, Coalition 34.9%, Greens 11.7% and One Nation 4.0% (and United Australia Party 3.2%, but I don’t include that in the display). Both leaders have net negative approval ratings on the leadership trends, Scott Morrison at minus 7.3% and Anthony Albanese at minus 5.9%, with Morrison at plus 5.4% and Albanese at minus 5.4% on the all-or-nothing preferred prime minister result.
We have also had today a report from Roy Morgan in which they relate they have “continued interviewing throughout this week but there has been no evidence of a swing to the L-NP seen in previous weeks continuing during the final week of the campaign”. The report then proceeds to reiterate the results of the poll that was released on Tuesday, which fooled me into thinking this was a new set of result, but apparently not. Hat tip to Adrian Beaumont for pointing this out and apologies to anyone who misled by the original version of this post.
Centre @ #1412 Saturday, May 21st, 2022 – 4:41 pm
I backed Labor at 4.26 pm yesterday, on Betfair, at $1.54 to win.
24 hours later, just now, the price is $1.38. In other words, the winning dividend, should Labor win, has shrunk by 30%. It has been at $1.38 all day, since early this morning, with virtually no movement, while around $1 million has been ‘matched’, by punters both backing and laying.
Betfair is where the bookies square their books. Its prices accurately reflect the actual, current market. There has NOT been a ‘big late go on the Coalition to be returned’. Centre is spreading false rumours.
Ah!
I got trapped by the moderation. I hope my guess got in!
I need to adjust it because I can’t count.
Labor: 81
Lib/Nat: 59
Greens: 2
UAP: 0
Centre Allience: 1
Independent: 7
Katter: 1
Shh! Nath
You’re not allowed to imply such things.
Looking back on those times, the question that I always have difficulty with is:
Nathan Rees – why?
(The only answer I can come up with is that he was so thick it took him 14 months to realise that he wasn’t in power)
True Believer says:
Saturday, May 21, 2022 at 5:07 pm
Confessions
My attempt at Humour as I’ve been appointed the PB Minister for Gaming, Racing, Tourism, Sport and Wine development as a result of my incessant posting about betting moves
________
You appointed yourself to that position. Neither Lars or I allocated you that portfolio. Cease and Desist.
BTRProducer, I just started my second. I’m on the mid-strengths to start though.
Oakeshott country says:
Nathan Rees – why?
(The only answer I can come up with is that he was so thick it took him 14 months to realise that he wasn’t in power)
_____________
Yes. The ultimate Useful Idiot.
John Kenneth Galbraith called this the Liberal Hour – which translated from the American means the Socialist Hour – where everyone, regardless of political persuasion, wait for the central authority to determine their lives
Nath: BTRProducer and myself appointed ourselves as the Assistant Ministers for Beer Consumption and Alcohol Sales in Poll Bludger land. I guess our boss is probably Upnorth over in Thailand.
Jeremy Fernandez (ABC) just now: “If the polls are to be believed the race is dramatically tightening”. What’s he on about?
People obviously not following the odds closely, LNP much longer now than this time yesterday.
Also odds tend to bounce because once they get too long for one party everyone jumps on and they shorten again.
True Believer:
Oh, right. Carry on!
Big tip of the night:
Flynn will go to Labor!
Evan says:
Saturday, May 21, 2022 at 5:11 pm
Nath: BTRProducer and myself appointed ourselves as the Assistant Ministers for Beer Consumption and Alcohol Sales in Poll Bludger land. I guess our boss is probably Upnorth over in Thailand.
____________
This is why I’m concerned about the Pisshead faction.
Bellwether
I think he has been smoking something and sprouting his fantasies.
The poll certainly have not dramatically tightened
Scott from Adelaide
nath, but up north appointed me earlier today.
You mean a leadership coup is on the cards already lol.
Evan says:
Saturday, May 21, 2022 at 5:11 pm
Nath: BTRProducer and myself appointed ourselves as the Assistant Ministers for Beer Consumption and Alcohol Sales in Poll Bludger land. I guess our boss is probably Upnorth over in Thailand.
中华人民共和国
That’s right cobber – we done the numbers. Take their names!!!!
Off to vote in the dark and wet.We need immigration boerwar, without it our demographics will bankrupt us.
If they don’t come here they will just end up in Canada or the USA or Western Europe. Australia stopping immigration will have zero effect on global temperatures.
Folks, I couldn’t wait any longer. I wanted to wait till 6pm to crack open my first beer. But I’m bored and nervous about tonight, so have opened a cold frothy one.
Can we declare the first PB Piss heads Club meeting open, or do we need to wait for an exit poll?
BTRProducer – I second your motion, I’m on to my 2nd beer already, Pi – similar to you.
What’s everyone doing for dinner tonight, or food in general?
Scott not from Adelaide – in the interests of clarity I think you should use the same posting convention as Scott from Adelaide.
Our Leader is all wise and Powerful Nath…you should be scared
Big tip of the night: Grey in SA almost falls to an Indy.
Coalition 3.25 now
Can’t believe #leadershit has started already in PB Land.
I for one am going to support my line manager of UpNorth in the Department of Drinking (the real DOD).
Given Upnorth’s residency issues – it sounds more like a government in exile, insurrectionists.
Nath: The Pisshead faction are totally harmless, no need to be scared of us, we’ll be too drunk to cause any problems to the hierarchy.
Upnorth I just wanted to say that your jovial attitude has been very much appreciated, especially this past week.
I’m hoping for at least a minority ALP government. Fingers crossed.
BeaglieBoy says:
Saturday, May 21, 2022 at 5:14 pm
Our Leader is all wise and Powerful Nath…you should be scared
______
Well said BB. We will unleash the headkickers.
Coalition in to $3.25, Lab $1.38
Evan says:
Saturday, May 21, 2022 at 5:14 pm
Folks, I couldn’t wait any longer. I wanted to wait till 6pm to crack open my first beer. But I’m bored and nervous about tonight, so have opened a cold frothy one.
Can we declare the first PB Piss heads Club meeting open, or do we need to wait for an exit poll?
BTRProducer – I second your motion, I’m on to my 2nd beer already, Pi – similar to you.
What’s everyone doing for dinner tonight, or food in general?
中华人民共和国
Cobbers The Whatever-The-Fuck-Our-Name-Is-Pollbludger-Pissheads-Club is offically open for business. Drink away comrades.
Bookies didn’t pay out early this time did they?
Can’t believe #leadershit has started already in PB Land.
I for one am going to support my line manager of UpNorth in the Department of Drinking (the real DOD).
Me too, BTRProducer, Upnorth is my guru!
Evan says:
Saturday, May 21, 2022 at 5:15 pm
Nath: The Pisshead faction are totally harmless, no need to be scared of us, we’ll be too drunk to cause any problems to the hierarchy.
__________
Sounds good. I still have the Ministry for Exotic Entertainment to offer the Pissheads as a bribe.
Didn’t the odds blow out last time after exit poll released? What were the longest odds for Coalition to win?
BiltongCinematicU says:
Saturday, May 21, 2022 at 5:16 pm
Upnorth I just wanted to say that your jovial attitude has been very much appreciated, especially this past week.
I’m hoping for at least a minority ALP government. Fingers crossed.
中华人民共和国
Good on ya digger. Yes I think most Aussies want a change. You stay safe and well. We are all going to know soon.
We have a split chicken for the barbie. Adult kid and partner coming over to get drunk with us and hopefully not be depressed. She’s a greens voter, but I don’t hold it against get her. Much.
https://www.news.com.au/national/federal-election/one-way-scott-morrison-can-win-federal-election-against-anthony-albanese/news-story/0bf5146decbb949f2adf07122a175da8
That’s if he can offset expected losses in NSW, Victoria, WA and Queensland
From the national broadcaster
“The ABC has received multiple copies of the texts from voters in the NSW electorates of Hughes, Macquarie, Greenway, Banks, Kingsford Smith, Bennelong, Gilmore, Reid, Lindsay and Robertson, as well as the Victorian electorates of Dunkley, Corangamite and Casey.
It reads: “BREAKING: Australian Border Force has intercepted an illegal boat trying to reach Australia. Keep our borders secure by voting Liberal today. https://vote.liberal.org.au“.
The messages were sent around 2:30pm AEST with a link to a website instructing how to vote for the Liberal Party, containing an authorisation.”
Desperation indeed!
If Scomo were honest (implausible) he would acknowledge that “I stopped the boats…..and then started them again”
nath says:
Saturday, May 21, 2022 at 5:17 pm
Evan says:
Saturday, May 21, 2022 at 5:15 pm
Nath: The Pisshead faction are totally harmless, no need to be scared of us, we’ll be too drunk to cause any problems to the hierarchy.
__________
Sounds good. I still have the Ministry for Exotic Entertainment to offer the Pissheads as a bribe.
中华人民共和国
As long as we also get the Ministry for Fun we accept! Grand Alliance.
Enough of the bookies!
South Australian election from memory – half of their predictions for individual seats were totally wrong, the same for the WA election. I think a lot of the people putting money on Sportsbet or Betfair are either wealthy Liberals or punters who really have no effing idea about exit polls at all.
Just wait for the actual results before you panic, which I think some in here are already doing.
Get stuck into the beers boys, like myself and BTRProducer and Pi and the legend that is Upnorth, what will be will be, might as well be drunk either way.
Last election the odds were 6.00 for the Coalition two days beforehand, then blew out to 10.00 when the exit polls were released. They then stayed quite high for some time.
Polls close in the East in twelve minutes….first drink is poured …..trying to stay sober long enough to be able to decipher the numbers
Surely nobody would be doing any pre-polling now? Just 45 minutes to go +- Over East, and a couple of hours here…..
If, according to AG, nearly 50% of the electorate voted prior to today, one way or the other, the influence of the few remaining votes in the Easter States and – with only 10% of the voting population here in the West, the voting part of the election is essentially over – at least as far as polling the stragglers…..
And, I gather, that exit polling is not to be trusted either – which ever way it might appear.
In fact, as I remember it, Labor was seen to be ahead after some early Exit Polls in 2019….
They were as wrong as Newspoll was back then too…..
Interesting to see Kingsford Smith listed as a target seat.
AJCanberra @ #1481 Saturday, May 21st, 2022 – 5:06 pm
I recorded your guess but it missed out on the first set of compiled lists. 🙁 Nevertheless I have it.
Contrary to many opinions, I hope that Wong remains in the senate for her political career. She reminds me so much of Faulkner. She owns that space. It would be great to see what she can do there in government. Here’s hoping.
sounds like the Bolsheviks and the Mensheviks….I wonder which one we are?
Yes exit polls in 2019 had it at 52/48.
https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/labor-in-box-seat-for-victory-as-liberal-vote-falls-exit-poll-shows-20190518-p51ord.html
I think a lot of agitated Labor people will have a bit on the LNP which will be helping keep them artificially short.
I know I do.
Sounds good. I still have the Ministry for Exotic Entertainment to offer the Pissheads as a bribe.
Nath, I am totally bribable now, what sort of exotic entertainment are you proposing?
Design a proposal for Upnorth and we’re in business.
SA Bludger says:
Saturday, May 21, 2022 at 5:15 pm
“Big tip of the night: Grey in SA almost falls to an Indy.”
I think you might be correct. Pity about the ‘almost’ though.