Roy Morgan has dropped its weekly federal campaign poll, which shows Labor’s two-party preferred lead narrowing from 54.5-45.5 to more believable 53-47. While this is Labor’s weakest two-party result from Roy Morgan since October, the respondent-allocated preferences measure the pollster used until last week had Labor at least one point higher when it was tied with the Coalition on the primary vote, and sometimes substantially higher. The two-party numbers are now determined by allocating preferences flows as per the result of the 2019 election.
The poll shows both major parties on what even by recent standards are remarkably low primary votes of 34% each, with Labor down 1.5% on last week and the Coalition steady. The Greens are on 13%, One Nation is on 4% and the United Australia Party is on 1%, all unchanged on last week, with independents up half to 9% and “others” up one to 5%.
The usual two-party state breakdowns have Labor leading 52-48 in New South Wales, out from 51.5-48.5 last week for a swing of around 4% compared with 2019; 57-43 in Victoria, in from 61-39, also for a swing of around 4%; 54.5-45.5 in Western Australia, in from 57.5-42.5 for a swing of about 10%; and 58-42 from the tiny Tasmanian sample. The Coalition leads 53-47 in Queensland, in from 53.5-46.5 for a swing to Labor of about 5.5%, and 51-49 in South Australia, its first lead on this small sample measure since October, and a rather stark contrast to Labor’s 62.5-37.5 lead last week (the result in 2019 was 50.7-49.3 in favour of Labor).
The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1366. It will naturally be Morgan’s last of the campaign if it sticks to its usual schedule, although it may well pull something from its hat on the eve of the big day. The final Essential Research poll will reportedly be out on Wednesday, and it’s a known known that Newspoll and Ipsos each have a poll to come (it’s disappointing that we haven’t seen any state breakdowns from Newspoll, but hope springs eternal), and I assume the same will be true of Resolve Strategic. Until then:
• Ten News is teasing yet another result of Liberal Party internal polling from Peter van Onselen, this time suggesting Katherine Deves is “in with a shot” of unseating Zali Steggall in Warringah, seemingly along with results from other seats including Parramatta and Bennelong. UPDATE: This turns out to show the Liberals trailing on two-party preferred measures that include an uncommitted component by 49-48 in Reid, 50-43 in Bennelong and 50-41 in Parramatta, with particularly heavy deficits among women, but by only 53-47 in Warringah.
• Tom McIlroy of the Financial Review reports a Redbridge Group poll for North Sydney commissioned by Climate 200 has Liberal member Trent Zimmerman on 33.3%, independent Kylea Tink on 23.5% and Labor candidate Catherine Renshaw on 17.8%, with 7.5% undecided. The poll was conducted between May 3 and 14 from a sample of 1267.
• James Morrow of the Daily Telegraph reports a poll of Fowler conducted by Laidlaw Campaigns, presumably for independent Dai Le’s campaign, has Kristina Keneally leading Le by 45% to 38% after distribution of preferences and without excluding the 17% undecided. The poll also found Le was viewed favourably by 28% and unfavourably by 10%, while Keneally was at 24% and 30%. It was conducted three weeks ago from a sample of 618.
• Katharine Murphy of The Guardian notes a campaign endorsement for Katy Gallagher by Julia Gillard reflects concern that a win for independent candidate David Pocock in the Australian Capital Territory Senate race could come at the expense of Gallagher, and not Liberal Senator Zed Seselja as had generally presumed. A recent Redbridge poll suggested Pocock had gauged enough of his support from Labor to reduce Gallagher to 27%, well below the one-third quota for election
• The Australian Electoral Commission has issued a statement announcing that advertising by conservative activist group Advance Australia linking independents Zali Steggall and David Pocock to the Greens is in breach of the Electoral Act. The relevant section is section 329, banning material “likely to mislead or deceive an elector in relation to the casting of a vote”. The section is very commonly used as the basis of unsuccessful complaints about misleading political advertising, when it has been consistently been found to apply very narrowly to efforts to deceive voters into casting their ballots differently from how they intended. However, the statement suggests that the ruling made after the 2019 election over Chinese language signs encouraging votes for the Liberals in the seat of Chisholm, although dismissed, offers “a new judicial precedent” that seemingly paved the way for a more expansive interpretation.
• Ben Raue has produced highly instructive charts showing how each state’s two-party preferred vote has deviatied from the national result at elections going back to 1958.
• At the risk of getting ahead of ourselves, Andrew Clennell of Sky News reports that Josh Frydenberg is “said to have the numbers” against Peter Dutton to succeed Scott Morrison as Liberal leader should the party lose the election.
“Dog’s Brunchsays:
Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 7:37 am
Sportsbet currently have the LNP betting suspended after listing earlier at $4.”
I wonder if that is in response to someone trying to put on a large amount of money
You can still bet on them winning a minority or majority
Lots of caveats, but nothing if not interesting:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/17/new-poll-predicts-allegra-spender-will-win-wentworth-from-liberal-mp-dave-sharma
”Does anyone have a guesstimate of what way they think Teal voters’ preferences will flow?”
Many, probably most, would be people who normally vote Liberal, many others would be strategically-voting Laborites or Greens. Some would be people who like that candidate or the policies who are not rusted-on.
Looking at the North Sydney vote, the Liberals have plunged 19% since 2019, Labor about 7%, Greens maybe about 3-4% (assuming that they are about half of “someone else”). To me this suggests that about two thirds of Teal votes are ex-Liberal, the remainder mainly ex-Labor or Green.
So what would that mean? Maybe about a 50-50 split?
Good morning Dawn Patrollers
Wentworth MP Dave Sharma is relying on endorsements from Matt Kean and Josh Frydenberg in his campaign flyers – not Prime Minister Scott Morrison, writes David Crowe
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/city-liberals-turn-to-frydenberg-on-climate-to-defend-their-seats-20220516-p5alsw.html
Charlotte Grieve reports that the chair of the country’s largest superannuation fund has warned that the Coalition’s “debilitating” super-for-housing policy will reduce investment returns and push up house prices.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/debilitating-effect-australiansuper-boss-hits-out-at-pm-s-housing-plan-20220516-p5aln1.html
Economist Angela Jackson argues that the Coalition’s housing policy to use superannuation represents another nightmare for first home buyers already struggling to realise their dreams.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/just-another-nightmare-for-first-home-buyers-20220516-p5alr8.html
Morrison is kicking into the wind in the final quarter, but the siren hasn’t sounded, says James Massola.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/morrison-kicking-into-the-wind-in-the-final-quarter-but-the-siren-hasn-t-sounded-20220516-p5alof.html
David Crowe writes that Morrison has ignited the superannuation culture war in the final stretch of the campaign.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/morrison-ignites-superannuation-culture-war-in-final-stretch-20220516-p5alu9.html
Scott Morrison’s super-for-housing plan has drawn criticism, but the idea might appeal to first time home buyers, says the SMH editorial.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/aspiring-young-buyers-must-have-a-voice-in-housing-policy-20220516-p5alsv.html
Greg Jericho puts on the table five housing policies that wouldn’t drive up prices in Australia.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2022/may/16/five-housing-policies-that-wouldnt-drive-up-prices-in-australia
Agreeing with what I said here yesterday to GG, Greg Sheridan writes, “Superannuation belongs to individuals. They should decide how it’s spent, not a faceless bureaucracy, whether government or superannuation fund. Numerous nations allow super to be used for housing. The Liberal policy is actually too restrictive. Forcing people to put the deposit money back into super if they sell will trap them in their first home.” This is from an article where he laments truth being a casualty in the PM’s preference for spin over substance.
https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/truth-a-casualty-in-pms-preference-for-spin-over-substance/news-story/affd2ddccabd39e922813c9a6e1e3209
Some of the biggest policy challenges of our time are going unaddressed as complexity gets crunched down into three-word slogans, laments Katherine Murphy who provides six examples of how policy loses out to soundbites.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/17/the-rise-of-catchphrase-politics-six-examples-of-how-policy-loses-out-to-soundbites
Elizabeth Redman contrasts the Labor and Liberal housing schemes.
https://www.smh.com.au/property/news/will-first-home-buyers-be-better-off-using-the-liberal-or-labor-low-deposit-schemes-20220513-p5al1a.html
Steven Hamilton also compares the two housing policies.
https://theconversation.com/super-for-housing-or-the-government-as-a-co-owner-how-liberal-and-labor-home-buyer-schemes-compare-183113
The Coalition and Labor both claim to be helping first home buyers with government assistance. Neither wants to acknowledge the economic reality that rising interest rates mean house prices are likely to go down rather than up, at least in the short term, writes Jennifer Hewett.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/housing-opens-up-a-philosophical-divide-20220516-p5alsr
The time for lazy, comfortable government is over, declares Alan Kohler.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/finance-news/2022/05/16/productivity-lazy-government-alan-kohler/
Anthony Albanese’s campaign slogan is the rather bland “A Better Future”. Labor does not promise a bolder, courageous, more inspiring or innovative government. No revolution. No remaking Australia. Just better. It must be working because Morrison has adopted this theme as his own, writes Troy Bramston.
https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/morrisons-pitch-vindicates-labors-campaign-strategy/news-story/d17bbafa3947f61a2d36b4cec6095ec1
Property developers are blaming lengthy state planning processes for an undersupply of housing that is pushing up prices, amid claims developers are also drip-feeding new supply into the market to boost their returns, explains Jackson Graham.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/developers-blame-planners-for-limited-housing-supply-critics-say-they-re-banking-land-20220516-p5alrl.html
For The Conversation, six politics experts take us around Australia in the final week of the campaign.
https://theconversation.com/state-of-the-states-six-politics-experts-take-us-around-australia-in-the-final-week-of-the-campaign-183099
Graham Young explains why Albo wins, and ScoMo loses, with women voters. He says Morrison’s real women problem is not that he is a misogynist, just that the man he represents has fallen out of fashion. The Liberals are going to need to plot their way around this, or they will be in the wilderness for quite some time.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/why-albo-wins-and-scomo-loses-with-women-voters-20220515-p5alio
Mark Buckley explains how the IPA has captured our government.
https://theaimn.com/the-ipa-has-captured-our-government/
Like it or not, winning elections has as much to do with perception as it does with policy, opines Jessica Mizrahi.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/may/16/like-it-or-not-winning-elections-has-as-much-to-do-with-perception-as-it-does-with-policy
Ronald Mizen tells us how the Teal independent member for Warringah Zali Steggall unloaded on Prime Minister Scott Morrison at a National Press Club debate in Canberra, saying she questioned his trustworthiness and moral compass.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/zali-steggall-unloads-on-scott-morrison-in-debate-20220516-p5almt
Federal Labor will go to the election on Saturday promising larger debt and deficits than the Coalition, but argue the extra spending is necessary to lift productivity. Phil Coorey tells us that the Coalition’s own costings to be released on Tuesday will show a $1 billion improvement to the budget bottom line since the March 29 budget, but the cumulative deficit over four years could be between $10 billion and $15 billion larger under Labor, based on its promises so far.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/labor-costings-to-contain-bigger-debt-and-deficit-20220516-p5allh
The incredible reality of the 2022 election is that with deficits forecast into the 2030s and gross debt expected to soar to $1.2 trillion, neither the Coalition nor Labor has a credible framework for fiscal repair to bring the budget back to balance, says the AFR’s editorial.
https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/reckless-budget-populism-must-stop-20220515-p5alin
Anthony Galloway and Peter Hartcher tell us that Labor leader Anthony Albanese will bring a package of South-East Asia policies to a meeting of the Quad grouping next week if he is elected prime minister.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/albanese-to-take-south-east-asia-package-to-quad-meeting-if-elected-20220516-p5alst.html
Hartcher looks at the “three rings” China policy where he identifies the middle ring, SE Asia, as the weakest and opines that Australia has to work much harder now to wield influence across the region, a frontline in China’s campaign for dominance of the entire Indo-Pacific. The Labor policy isn’t grand or transformative; it is, however, positive and incremental, he says.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/labor-s-missing-middle-strategy-avoids-asking-region-to-take-sides-on-china-20220516-p5allz.html
If Penny Wong becomes foreign minister, will she repeat the numerous blunders Australia and the US have made in the Pacific, wonders Brian Toohey.
https://johnmenadue.com/wong-foreign-minister-lessons-australia-us-pacific/
The 93-year-old daughter of Robert Menzies says she doesn’t want to die with someone other than a Liberal in her father’s old seat. But like many lifelong Liberal voters, she is also worried at what has happened to the party her father founded.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/menzies-daughter-urges-kooyong-to-keep-frydenberg-but-tells-liberals-to-change-20220516-p5allj.html
Jess Irvine thinks young people should be engaging in a conversation about whether they want as much of their money going off to fund their retirement versus keeping more in their pockets to buy property.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/super-v-housing-it-s-time-young-people-had-that-debate-20220516-p5alru.html
Only a super salesman like Scott Morrison would think of trying to convert a negative attribute – bully – into something that has perhaps a small positive connotation – bulldozer. But that’s at least partly what last Friday’s makeover was about, says David Solomon.
https://johnmenadue.com/morrison-a-more-empathetic-consultative-bulldozer/
Taxpayers have the right to wonder what the federal government is doing promising money for small projects that used to be the domain of local councils and community groups, opines Katina Curtis.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/should-taxpayers-be-footing-the-bill-for-murals-dog-parks-and-footy-jumpers-20220516-p5almp.html
More than 70% of aged care workers are yet to receive a single payment through the Morrison government’s pandemic bonus scheme four months after it was announced, staff polling suggests.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/17/over-70-of-australias-aged-care-workers-yet-to-receive-800-pandemic-bonus-poll-suggests
The news media’s framing of debates about wage rises reveals subtle yet powerful class bias is alive and well in the mainstream media, writes Victoria Fielding.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/media-framing-of-wage-rises-shows-deep-ideological-bias,16362
Anthony Albanese and Tanya Plibersek taunt Scott Morrison, calling on him to identify who is actually education minister – the disgraced Alan Tudge or the disgraceful Stuart Robert – but Labor has questions of its own to answer on education says Chris Bonnor.
https://johnmenadue.com/no-education-minister-opposition-without-school-funding-policy/
Ben Smee reveals that the home affairs minister, Karen Andrews, has sought to block federal funding for a Gold Coast light rail expansion that would run directly past an investment property she co-owns with her husband.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/17/karen-andrews-seeks-to-block-funding-for-gold-coast-light-rail-that-would-run-past-her-property
Nick Miller isn’t impressed with Labor’s arts policy.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/should-taxpayers-be-footing-the-bill-for-murals-dog-parks-and-footy-jumpers-20220516-p5almp.html
A bastion of conservative Christian politics, the electorate of Groom has become a frontline in the battle for the soul of the Coalition. And while religion barely rates a mention in the official campaign for Groom, there are concerns about the rising influence of Pentecostalism, which could explain why the second safest seat in the country has suddenly become seen as one to watch, writes Joe Hinchliffe.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/17/pentecostalism-and-the-lnps-fight-for-its-soul-in-queenslands-darling-downs
Voluntary assisted dying laws should pass the state’s parliament unchanged, NSW Deputy Nationals leader Bronnie Taylor says, with no excuse for amendments that are deliberately hostile. Alexandra Smith says that assisted dying will be legalised in NSW as early as Wednesday when the bill passes the final hurdle in the upper house. But there are fears opponents could use amendments to slow down the process.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/assisted-dying-bill-should-pass-unchanged-deputy-nats-leader-says-20220516-p5alrr.html
However, medical specialists Marion Harris and John Obeid say that if VAD is to be legalised in NSW, there’s no room for error. They outline the amendments they would like to see.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/if-vad-is-to-be-legalised-in-nsw-there-s-no-room-for-error-20220514-p5alcq.html
Angus Thompson reports that in a landmark decision, the Fair Work Commission has held workers should be able to access the leave on a yearly basis at their base rate of pay.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/millions-entitled-to-10-days-paid-domestic-violence-leave-after-historic-win-20220516-p5alsu.html
In 2019, Australia had the oldest age structure of net migration on record. Rather than immigration slowing the rate of population ageing as it has for most of our history, in 2019, the rate was accelerated, explains Abul Rizvi.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/somehow-immigration-made-us-older-in-2019,16363
The state branch of the Australian Medical Association in Victoria says people need to go above and beyond current rules to help ease ambulance ramping and hospital overcrowding.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/doctors-plead-with-victorians-to-wear-masks-for-the-good-of-us-all-20220516-p5almn.html
Christopher Knaus writes that the federal government has successfully blocked Bernard Collaery from obtaining key documents about the lawfulness of the notorious spy operation against Timor-Leste, arguing that questions about its legality are irrelevant.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/16/government-successfully-blocks-bernard-collaery-from-obtaining-documents-on-legality-of-spy-mission
Elizabeth Knight looks at the Brambles and CHEP pallet business. If a company can’t make a decent, but fair, profit out of this business something is wrong. Once a pallet goes into circulation and not returned to the company, SOMEONE is paying a daily rental. If user companies are not fastidious with record keeping and disciplined return or transfer, they will be on the drip for a long time. Twenty five years ago the company I worked for had racked up a $2,2 million liability and I was given the task to clean it up. It was almost an impossibility to analyse the archaic paper systems.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/who-knew-chep-pallets-were-sexy-prey-corporate-vultures-of-course-20220516-p5alra.html
Boris Johnson created this Brexit mess in Northern Ireland – and he should own it, exhorts Simon Jenkins.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/may/16/boris-johnson-brexit-mess-northern-ireland-dup
The top Catholic clergyman in the Holy Land has condemned the Israeli police beating of mourners carrying the casket of Al Jazeera journalist Shireen Abu Aqleh, accusing the authorities of violating human rights and disrespecting the Catholic church. No doubt she will be branded anti-Sematic.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/16/catholic-condemns-police-shireen-abu-aqleh-funeral-israel
Stephen Bartholomeusz writes that it would appear that Musk has belatedly recognised that he’s at risk of paying far too much for Twitter and, given the continuing implosion in sharemarkets, putting a massive amount of his personal wealth in jeopardy and destabilising the already sliding Tesla share price in the process.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/elon-musk-needs-an-exit-from-his-ill-timed-twitter-bid-20220516-p5allp.html
The massacre by a white supremacist gunman of Black shoppers at a Buffalo grocery store has drawn renewed scrutiny of Republican figures in the US who have embraced the racist “great replacement theory” he is alleged to have used as justification for the murders.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/may/16/buffalo-massacre-great-replacement-theory-republicans
Vladimir Putin has appeared to climb down from Russia’s objections to Sweden and Finland joining NATO, saying Moscow had no issues with them entering the US-led military alliance they now aim to join in reaction to his invasion of Ukraine. Not so tough now!
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/no-problems-none-putin-appears-to-back-off-threats-as-sweden-finland-prepare-to-join-nato-20220517-p5alvv.html
Cartoon Corner
Matt Golding
Alan Moir
David Rowe
Cathy Wilcox
Fiona Katauskas
John Shakespeare
Glen Le Lievre
Andrew Dyson
Peter Broelman
Mark Knight
Dionne Gain
Spooner
From the US
It was Kevin Bonham on twitter overnight who said “Oh hai the ALP-skewed respondent 2PP was 56.5 (+0.5) and they didn’t mention it in the release.:” and “That would be Labor getting 70% of preferences.”
I’ve just asked him where he got that info, no response yet (wouldn’t expect one this early). Maybe Kevin is on a Roy Morgan email list, which has more details that what’s on the site? Just a guess.
That is such a big skew I’m not surprised they moved away from leading with the respodant allocated TPP, although the poll is wonky at any time with state breakdowns that swing wildly at times.
That ABC podcast sprocket_ linked on page 1 was quite a good listen. Savva makes it sound like the PM is perceived as having gone rogue in the party itself.
Evan, in the US they consider prepolling because they have to factor in the voluntary vote. So if you prepolled, you certainly voted, and you have a factor of 1. But if you say “yeah if I vote I’ll be R but I don’t usually” then you’ll get a factor of close to 0. In Australia there’s a general assumption that you can ignore turnout factors in polling, so there’s much less reason to care. (There is the additional “how certain is your vote?” that some pollsters ask, which contributes to misreports of 25% of Australians being undecided, but it’s a separate matter. The Australian polls are basically asking them how they’d vote if they’d vote today, not how they’ll vote on some date in the future, so the fact that you might change your mind if you voted tomorrow doesn’t affect the fact that, if you voted today, you’d vote Apple. Hope that makes some sense.)
@Levoy
The reason for their state subsample’s wild swings, IMO, is that it’s not a state poll. If you want a scientific poll of say Queensland, find a representative sample of QLD voters. But given the major parties’ focus on marginal seats, it’s not that necessary anyway.
There seems to be a huge anti-Scott Morrison vibe this election, without a massive enthusiasm for Labor, so I would guess a decent increase in 3rd party voters who are more likely to preference Labor as compared to 2019.
I think the teal preferences, which largely won’t matter, will skew Labor.
The fall in PV of Labor particularly is generally as much a the libs in those seats. Plus, there would be some “had enough” traditional liberal voters who will preference Labor. Independents from memory flowed 60 40 to Labor last time
Ven, it’s Labor’s to loose.
“Lars Von Trier says:
Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 7:13 am
…Still if you give the greens 10% and split that 80:20”
Lars, that 80:20 split of the Greens was credible pre-Teals. But now Teal voters will first preference their Teal candidate, not the Greens, hence they will not have any effect on the allocation of Greens second (and further) preferences. Bandt has already told the Greens that the party preferences the ALP above the Coalition (consistent with the Greens’ Progressive politics). So, this time around it will be closer to a 100 ALP : 0 Coalition split in Greens preferences.
Implied probability of winning from betfair.com
As at: May-17 (previous week in brackets)
Coalition majority: 1.1% (5%)
Coalition minority: 21% (25%)
Labor minority: 16% (14%)
Labor majority: 62% (56%)
Average number of seats LNP seat lost to ALP: 7.9 (7.3)
MOE (66% CI): 5.2 (5.7)
If respondent directed preferences are resulting in a 3.5% differential in 2pp compared to last election determined, that is clearly an important fact.
“Lars Von Triersays:
Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 7:49 am
Ven, it’s Labor’s to loose.”
Whereas Scomo and the Coalition have already lost?
Lars, an unrepentant sinner, lying during his confession, can’t hope for “miracles”…. He goes straight to Hell.
I’m very much hoping Zoe Daniel will knock off Wilson – but this interview in the Age reminds us that like most Teals, she is an economic conservative. In the hopefully unlikely event that it was a real possibility, it’s not at all difficult to see her supporting a Frydenberg led LNP minority government:
“Some tax issues however, are off limits until such a review reports, says Daniel, because they have been “politically weaponised”. These include negative gearing, franking credits and taxation of trusts.
Nor do her policies mention public housing. Does she support more federal funding to public housing? “Where does the money come from?” she responds. “It would have to be offset by savings somewhere else.”
Does she welcome more public housing in affluent bayside suburbs of Hampton and Brighton? It’s not something she or her team have talked about. “I would need to talk to the community about it.”
Alpo: I agree my vibe is that Scomoe is on the nose up here.He smells like the wheely bin on a hot humid Brisbane February on pickup day. I’m not sure how big Brisbane and elsewhere will swing to ALP but my feeling is at least Brisbane and Longman. I also reckon with Andrew ” the Lamia” Laming personal vote gone the new guy is vulnerable in Bowman. Longman is also on the radar so is Ryan although hard to believe. I think the independent could win Hinkler and possibly Burnett for ALP in Flynn. If all goes well they lose 7 seats however Hinkler independent is ex LNP but one of the more moderate members of the old Cando schemozzle. If ALP gets a net gain of even two, libs are gone.
Victor, you’ve seat count is 3 short in “The Guessing Game”. I’ll add 3 to the ‘other’ column for now, but please let me know if that’s not your meaning.
“So, this time around it will be closer to a 100 ALP : 0 Coalition split in Greens preferences.”
No it won’t. Id be shocked if it was over 85%. This (high 70s to low 80s );is a pretty consistent phenomena
dont whiy media continues with the myth of Frydenberg being a modderit liberal he is not former staffer to Downer along with Sharmer and worked for howard backt by dutton to replace petro Goergio in 2007 was behind neg but votes with joice on evrything last true modderit was turnbull and bishop no more ian mcfees left
OK here it is, full table of Roy Morgan poll TPP using both calculations, 2016-2022.
https://www.roymorgan.com/morganpoll/federal-voting/2pp-voting-intention-recent-2016-2022
On passing note, Kevin Bonham said earlier “Morgan 53-47 to Labor but I get 53.9 by my last-election preference estimates L-NP 34 ALP 34 Green 13 ON 4 UAP 1 IND 9 (likely to be overstated) Others 5”
Of course, rounding in those primaries could make it a bit closer to 53 TPP, but may still be a *high* 53.
he has les personality then morrison soundid like a robot drone on insiders sunday imo does not seem tobe relatible dutton would be a beter leader at least would energize the reactionaries cant see frydenberg being a good loto has no life expirence was a corear staffer and banker plus backed kevin andrews failed bid in menzeys bullied archeralong with pm on fed icac and tried to presure her to suport laws togive churches more rights to attack trans gender also backt guy over moderit obrian for state leader
C@tmomma , sprocket, Sandman and others on ALP hustings.
To the Liberal ad and Jingle”There is a hole in your budget, dear labor, dear labor”
I have this
ALP ad can be
There is a hole in my Super dear Liberal, dear Liberal
or
There is a hole in your budget dear Liberal dear Liberal
Terrible interview from Penny Wong on ABC breakfast. Nervous, uptight, fidgity, defensive.
BB was banned? how come?
EEron Nuuton should go on the gounds of illegibility
Thanks sprocket for that interview with Tingle and Savva. Savva always has the best Lib insider goss.
Unless the lib/nats have a majority like they did in 1996 and in 2013
The election wont be close with a lib/nats combined primary vote under 40%
I will be surprise if the lib/nats get more than 64 seats this election
“So, this time around it will be closer to a 100 ALP : 0 Coalition split in Greens preferences.”
A bold prediction. We will see, but it has been relatively stable in the past.
Scott your numbers don’t add up:
You say 89 seats to labor
Coalition not likely more than 64 seats
And say 5 independents ?
what are people talking about the fall in labor primary vote , if the opinion polls are close to being accurate
The lib/nats combined primary vote is the only one which has fallen since the 2019 federal election
Lars von Trier
I dont care if i am wrong by 5 seats, 10 seats about the total of seats Labor can get, as long as the lib/nats are in opposition
@Late Riser
Final TPP 52.4-47.6
Final seats 77/65/ other 9
The Revisionistsays:
Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 7:49 am
I think the teal preferences, which largely won’t matter, will skew Labor.
The fall in PV of Labor particularly is generally as much a the libs in those seats. Plus, there would be some “had enough” traditional liberal voters who will preference Labor. Independents from memory flowed 60 40 to Labor last time.
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At the last election the national second preference flows went 58.6 % to Labor and 41.4 % to the Coalition.
However, if you take out the Greens second preferences from the 2019 election, the preference flows from ‘others’ flowed 35.6% to Labor and 64.4% to the Coalition
.
That was, of course, before the Teals came along in droves. Non Green ‘others’ in the polls is about 16% of the electorate. Make of that what you will if you are trying to work out where these ‘others’ votes are going in seats with no Teal candidate and good luck figuring out where those 16% will send their preferences in seats where there is Teal candidate in the final 2.
I would imagine the Greens and Labor would 2nd preferences the Teal above the Coalition in Teal contested seats, but as for the non Teal ‘others’ I have no clue.
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The so called fall in Labor PV is coming from the Morgan poll which I never put any value in. Labor is on 38% right now and Newspoll is yet to record a drop in that vote anywhere near what Morgan is spouting now.
Morning all. Thanks BK for the roundup, concise and clear as always.
Morrison’s attempt to blow up super for the young is intergenerational warfare. This claim about the cause of the housing crisis is a flat lie:
“Property developers are blaming lengthy state planning processes for an undersupply of housing that is pushing up prices, amid claims developers are also drip-feeding new supply into the market to boost their returns, explains Jackson Graham.”
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/developers-blame-planners-for-limited-housing-supply-critics-say-they-re-banking-land-20220516-p5alrl.html
PLanning regulations have not recently changed. So how could they be the cause of recent house price growth? Its obviously a lie.
If anything, thanks to political interference, planning laws in states I am familiar with are weaker now than they were twenty years ago. Many laws relating to service standards and building standards are watered down or not enforced at all.
Australia’s house price inflation started galloping after Costello got rid of CGT while keeping negative gearing back in 2001 under Howard. It has never recovered.
The way lib/nats can gain seats, with a declining combined primary vote
if Labor primary vote also declines lower than the 2019 federal election result
The Governor of the Bank of England has warned of “apocalyptic” global food price rises and said he is “helpless” in the face of surging inflation as the economy is battered by the war in Ukraine.
Andrew Bailey said he has “run out of horsemen” when counting the shocks facing Britain, with runaway energy and food costs driven by global market forces beyond his control.
Prices are rising at the fastest rate in 30 years, creating a “very big income shock” that is expected to intensify in coming months with a risk of double-digit inflation before the end of the year.
Mr Bailey told MPs on the Treasury Select Committee that he is increasingly concerned about a further surge in food costs if Ukraine, a major crop grower, is unable to ship wheat and cooking oils from its warehouses because of a Russian blockade.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/05/16/bank-england-warns-apocalyptic-global-food-shortage/
First item on commercial radio news and Ch 10 news is Morrison’s refusal to answer Sales’ question on what he would do in event of a loss or being in minority government.
Perhaps he really believes that his god really would have a word in voters’ ears to keep him again as PM – voila another miracle!
If the final MORGAN poll only shows Labor ahead 53-47, then I wouldn’t be at all surprised that the final Newspoll and Essential to be only 51-49 or even 50-50. Which of course extrapolates to a Coalition win!
Always look forward to David Rowe’s cartoons.
Am puzzled by the Jane Hume comment and who is making it?
(Am aware of the twitter rumours…)
citizen @ #133 Tuesday, May 17th, 2022 – 8:27 am
It’s Expectations Management 101 for delusional Pentecostal leaders.
I’d suggest the Deve’s leak is just to keep her name out there for dog-whistling purposes. Elsewhere a narrowing is to be expected isn’t it? People who want Labor to win need to keep having conversations and helping where they can. Six weeks of relentless pro-Coalition support from much of the media is going to have an impact and it needs countering at a local level. Labor also needs to go back to basics – remind people of focus on childcare, aged care and Medicare.
Thanks again, BK
Lib/nats currently 75 seats
For the Lib/nats to get majority
The lib/nats combined primary vote needs to be over 42%
Lib/nats to get a minority
The lib/nats combined primary vote needs to be over 40%
Rex – you must have been watching a different interview or had a very biased perception.
Penny Wong came across as always as confident over the information and passionate about the need for a majority Labor government.
Nothing to do with Penny Wong having a crack at the Greens demands she highlighted?
4 days to go till the Federal election
193 till the VIC election
313 till the NSW election
Greg Combet. (PJK’s comment needs a comma – who’s “Super Greg”?)
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The loose unitsays:
Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 6:50 am
If it’s 34/34 then the alp can win from there, the lnp need to be 39+, it depends on the preference flows.
The lnp primary is 4+5% lower than in polls at the same time in 2019.
If the pollsters aren’t wrong or the error isn’t as large they are toast.
”
If it is 34/34
We can safely assume 34 LNP PV can be split into 30 Libs and 4 Nats.
That is PV against LNP for ALP in 151 seats.
As ‘Bludging’ pointed ALP may not finish in top 2 in 14 seats . And in the remaining 137 seats there are atleast 14 seats where contest is between Nats and ALP. So on the average in 123 seats ALP has PV advantage of +4.
It appears LNP won elections when Libs PV is more than ALP.
Freya Stark @ #136 Tuesday, May 17th, 2022 – 8:27 am
Not if the lnp primary is under 40 – they can’t govern if they don’t get 40+ and using preferences from 2019 this is more like 53.9 than 53.
Err
Look at https://www.roymorgan.com/morganpoll/federal-voting/2pp-voting-intention-recent-2016-2022
This Morgan poll is a largely neutral result. No need to get excited. Peeps trying to read way too much into it.
The only issue here is it looks like PRIOR to the kitchen sink rubbish housing policy announcement from Scotty From Marketing.
Anne Twomey: ““The people who wrote the Constitution would be horrified to know that money is being spent on bowling greens and dog parks,” she said.”
I understand the Constitutional argument Anne, but maybe sound less like you’re shaking your fist at a cloud when you say it next time.
Labor’s doing a lot better in SA than Morgan says. Boothby may be the only pick-up, but Sturt and Grey are certainly giving the Libs palpitations.