Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

Newspoll continues to present a stable picture on voting intention, crediting Labor with a two-party lead a few points stronger than ahead of the greater pollster failure of 2019.

The Australian reports on an unusually timed release from Newspoll, although the field work period from the poll of Tuesday to Friday is only slightly different from the usual Wednesday to Saturday. The poll finds no change since last week on two-party preferred, with Labor retaining a lead of 54-46 from primary votes of Labor 38% (down one), Coalition 35% (steady), Greens 11% (steady), One Nation 6% (up one) and United Australia Party 3% (down one). Scott Morrison is up a point on approval to 42% and down two on disapproval to 53%, while Anthony Albanese is down three to 38% and up two to 49%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is in from 44-42 to 43-42. The sample for the poll was 1532.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,184 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. “Poll in the Sunday Times tomorrow apparently shows Labor “on track to pick up two crucial electorates”, presumably in Perth.”

    Also “4 shock results” – probably not Labor losing a seat or they’d headline it for sure – and increased Liberal primary compared to something.

    Presumably Labor gaining Swan and Pearce and “shock” close races in Hasluck and Curtin?

  2. William Bowe says:
    Saturday, May 14, 2022 at 9:37 pm

    Poll in the Sunday Times tomorrow apparently shows Labor “on track to pick up two crucial electorates”, presumably in Perth.

    https://t.co/QpQNBakUFE

    My understanding is the internal tracking suggests Swan and Pearce are within reach, Hasluck is too close to call while Tangney, Moore and Canning are probably out of range. At the worst, the expectation is that Labor will pick up Swan. Expectations are being talked down. Makes sense.

  3. Arky @ #1051 Saturday, May 14th, 2022 – 7:42 pm

    “Poll in the Sunday Times tomorrow apparently shows Labor “on track to pick up two crucial electorates”, presumably in Perth.”

    Also “4 shock results” – probably not Labor losing a seat or they’d headline it for sure – and increased Liberal primary compared to something.

    Presumably Labor gaining Swan and Pearce and “shock” close races in Hasluck and Curtin?

    I wonder if 4 shock results could be in addition to Swan and Pearce? Perhaps Hasluck, Curtin, Canning and Moore looking all closer than people might expect?

  4. Twitter
    Rohanc
    @rohancct
    ·
    8h
    Labor must be getting concerned about Dai Le if they are now doing robocalls in Fowler #auspol

  5. What I can’t understand is why is Ben Morton following Scott Morrison all over Australia as he campaigns? I see him in the background all the time and I wonder whether his seat is so safe that he can afford to do this?

  6. @ C@t,

    Indeed! I feel that people are seeing the vision that everyone other than the LNP are bringing this time around. I’m thinking Labor’s PV will be ~40% with an absolute massacre on the LNP side.

    Saturday can’t come quick enough.

  7. That Sunday Times front page intimates that Labor is only going to pick up 2 seats in WA and the Coalition PV is rising in this last week, giving it hope.

  8. To be clear. Negative gearing for primary residences is not a good idea. And the Coalition are more likely to unlock super, as it provides a better wedge for Labor, but is equally dumb.

    But neither are impossible. For example, you can deduct interest from income tax on primary residences in the US, I believe.

    A stupid idea, yes, but not out of the realm of possibility. Especially if you never have to implement it.

    Let’s see what level of desperate the coalition is atm. Their housing policy should be a good guide as it’s obviously been concocted at the last minute in panic.

  9. Firefox,
    Student loan debt is fair. The only thing I’d change would be to discount STEM and allow people the 10% prepay fee reduction.

    A CPI indexed loan is cost price education. It’s not unfair to charge for a real asset.

    Potentially there is move to reform the actual fee’s charged. I have a professor friend who really dislikes uni admin. There’s a lot of fat on the bone that could be cut to deliver cheaper courses overall.

  10. Is there anything that the Greens aren’t going to make free?

    edit: I know, taxing billionaires will pay for it all. /s

  11. @DB Cooper

    They could promise free Eminem shows if they wanted to.

    Because we all know that Billionares have infinite money.

  12. DB Cooper says:
    Saturday, May 14, 2022 at 9:59 pm

    Is there anything that the Greens aren’t going to make free?

    edit: I know, taxing billionaires will pay for it all. /s
    _______
    that’s what the Liberals say about Labor. Just substitute taxing billionaires for multinational tax.

  13. If the Teals want a career in politics I think they’ll back The Coalition on the proviso that Scott Morrison resign as leader and their pet projects are legislated. They all saw what happened to Oakeshott and Windsor. If they don’t care about their own political longevity they’ll back Labor. Hopefully they won’t matter.

  14. “It’s not unfair to charge for a real asset.”

    ***

    An education pays for itself.

    Everyone has the right to high quality education and access to it should not be determined by an individual’s wealth.

  15. C@tmomma @ #1057 Saturday, May 14th, 2022 – 7:53 pm

    What I can’t understand is why is Ben Morton following Scott Morrison all over Australia as he campaigns? I see him in the background all the time and I wonder whether his seat is so safe that he can afford to do this?

    Tangney’s usually fairly safe expect Morton will hold it but narrowly, but not a foregone conclusion. Being so close to Morrison isn’t exactly a vote winner here and the Canning Vale end of the electorate is big growth mortgage belt so there is likely a lot of latent Labor voters there.

  16. Juxtapose this:

    Bullying bullshitting bulldozer marketing man, gaslighting and manipulating the levers of power, unable to avoid smirking to those like him who have never had to answer to anyone, and lack understanding of the lived reality of many struggling to survive.

    The commission kid, who learnt through collaboration rather than assumptions to any power owed him. Taking no break from journalists unable to even recognise their own class incredulity, he stated “I have always been underestimated”.

    This could be a win for the pathological narcissists again

    or a win for a lot of people who have the experience of being consistently UNDERESTIMATED. Go Albo!

    I like “No One Left Behind”, however, there will be a lot of work to do and a lot of power imbalances to improve.

  17. ‘Hey bludgers. Do you reckon that this could happen in the News(exit)poll?
    -Labor’s PV could go to 39-40%
    -Albo’s net satisfaction rating increases to -8
    -Albo for the first time since 2020 overtakes Scott in the preferred PM
    – Labor’s TPP vote goes up to 54.5%-55%’

    Seems unlikely. I think the general view remains – ‘the government is OKish but Morrison is a muppet and I wants him gone ’ – and that lends itself more to a slight narrowing in the last week to about 52-53% Labor 2PP. Labor winning about 8 to 10 seats.

  18. I will not be confident until the result is called

    With a 2 horse race anything can happen – so it is fingers crossed

    The polls, and their consistency with different people being surveyed in each poll, are a positive

    But, with a primary polling vote of under 40% preferences are required

    If the primary polling vote for the Coalition is mid 30’s then they have to find more preferences

    And that is what it will come down to

    Who gets the preferences and where

    I noted the Pentecostal in addressing the NSW Branch offered that they were at the high water mark in Queensland and expected to lose a couple of seats but that those losses would be covered by gains in NSW where the Coalition were well regarded

    Hence the promotion of NSW as pristine in its Pandemic response

    Learning to live with the virus – then getting advantage with vaccine distribution

    Does this assessment still stand

    In regard the so called Teals, they will take Coalition seats

    So it is up to Labor to get to 76 of 151

    And until that is the fact I will remain cautious

  19. “What I can’t understand is why is Ben Morton following Scott Morrison all over Australia as he campaigns?”

    He’s Morrison’s padawan apprentice and strategy assistant etc and they probably thought his seat is so safe he could afford to be invisible in it. They’re probably right too although it may get uncomfortable.

  20. Quasar says:
    Saturday, May 14, 2022 at 10:15 pm

    Am interested in feedback on Flinders, Greg Hunt’s old seat.
    Any bludgers in that electorate?
    ____________
    It might go close, if some of those figures of a big swing in Victoria bear fruit. I wouldn’t have money on Labor getting it though.

  21. Des Devlin says:
    Saturday, May 14, 2022 at 10:10 pm
    If the Teals want a career in politics I think they’ll back The Coalition on the proviso that Scott Morrison resign as leader and their pet projects are legislated. They all saw what happened to Oakeshott and Windsor. If they don’t care about their own political longevity they’ll back Labor. Hopefully they won’t matter.

    __________________________________

    except none of them are career politicians. At least not yet.

  22. I wonder if that is why the Green’s vote falls off with age, they make all these promises and then fail to deliver any of them.

  23. @south
    “I have a professor friend who really dislikes uni admin”

    All professors hate uni admin except the ones who aspire to be uni admin, but they are also generally pretty clueless about how much fucking work is actually involved in running the organisation. Universities are complex, man. I think after the government stiffed unis on JobKeeper most of them are running on a shoestring and overworking the admin staff who remain while desperately hoping for a rebound in foreign student numbers soon.

  24. GG – As an expert wanker I object.

    Lars – KK losing Fowler is only a loss because the ALP loses a seat. But I can’t see it happening. Also Robocalls must not cost much as I seem to get about 5 each day telling me my Amazon Prime account is expiring. I doubt why political parties even both with them nowadays, as 95%+ will hang up within seconds.

    If Keneally fails to win her seat, she will not have been elected to public office in 12 years. She was appointed to the senate in Sam Dastyari’s place in 2018 and didn’t face election in 2019.

  25. Barney in Tanjung Bunga says:
    Saturday, May 14, 2022 at 10:14 pm
    Upnorth @ #1020 Saturday, May 14th, 2022 – 7:09 pm

    BeaglieBoy says:
    Saturday, May 14, 2022 at 9:02 pm
    Upnorth: Salamat po
    中华人民共和国
    Salamat Pagi
    “Salamat malam!” at this time of day.
    中华人民共和国
    Tera Maksi

  26. Twitter posts indicating the ‘dirt’ on Albo could be that he’s unwittingly a dual Italian citizen, but not declaring it to the aec, that is only listing his mother on his birth certificate. Not sure of full detail.

    Could be getting a rehash even though dealt with in 2017

  27. B.S. Fairman says:

    If Keneally fails to win her seat, she will not have been elected to public office in 12 years. She was appointed to the senate in Sam Dastyari’s place in 2018 and didn’t face election in 2019.
    __________
    She could always go back to SKY. She didn’t take anything seriously when she was on there. Completely different person it seemed. She was very entertaining though.

  28. Twitter’s attempt at drumming up dirt on Albanese sounds worse than the “answer this question about someone else’s Tweet from 11 years ago!” level of the Murdoch press.

  29. The federal election was probably 6 months too late for labor to expect massive gains here in WA. Would be happy with picking up swan and Pearce, but had hoped for more, particularly with quality candidates in other seats (especially Tangney and Canning).

  30. Fairmans ,

    There seems to be is a whole lot of ifiness going on.

    My guess is Kenneally wins with a 6 on TPP.

  31. True Believer @ #1090 Saturday, May 14th, 2022 – 8:28 pm

    Twitter posts indicating the ‘dirt’ on Albo could be that he’s unwittingly a dual Italian citizen, but not declaring it to the aec, that is only listing his mother on his birth certificate. Not sure of full detail.

    Could be getting a rehash even though dealt with in 2017

    Don’t think so, it’s been reported in the media previously that his father wasn’t named on his birth certificate so presumably he wouldn’t be entitled to Italian citizenship.

  32. It’s in the interests of many for the next week to be as muddy as possible.

    Nothing coming from any campaign can be trusted, the media will be playing up everything … best to just switch off as best you can.

  33. Have to love this baloney from Katherine Murphy at The Guardian

    Because she believes the “strategists are not lying”, the contest is much closer than the published polls suggest. {Similar ‘strategists” made the same claims about the SA state election recently and we know how that turned out- but lets put that to one side}.

    So, “the way soft voters break will determine the outcome, pushing either party into a win, loss or minority government”.

    Based then on what she believes, she comes to the conclusion that

    ..”the combatant who wins this week will win the campaign”.

    And what brilliant strategy is SfM going to use to “win the campaign” in the last week ?

    Well “He’s executing his strategy to hold on – a strategy that peaked on Friday when Morrison distanced himself from himself”.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/13/if-the-metropolitan-moderates-are-wiped-out-next-week-the-liberals-must-learn-the-right-lesson-from-defeat.

    I used to have some respect for Katherine Murphy’s journalism, once upon a time. These days she imbibes the ‘click bait’ press corp bubble of a election hanging in the balance and any stumble in the last week by Albo costing him the election because Scomo has come up with the brilliant strategy of trying to say I hate myself too. Come on Kathryn, try again, really.


    PS: Does anyone know when the advertising ban comes into play or is that a relic from my memories.

  34. Greensborough Growler says:
    Saturday, May 14, 2022 at 10:05 pm
    “DB

    Orgasms.

    They need to tax them to balance the budget.”

    Can’t get to excited about that. Come on!

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