YouGov has dropped the first results from Australia’s first ever published MRP (multi-level regression with post-stratification) poll, which aims for a detailed election prediction by surveying an expansive national sample of 18,923 and using demographic modelling to project results for each electorate. Its methods are outlined in The Australian by Campbell White of YouGov and University of Sydney data science lecturer Shaun Ratcliff. The method became something of a cause celebre when it predicted the hung parliament at the United Kingdom election in 2017 that crippled the prime ministership of Theresa May, a rare success for the British polling industry in that period. However, it did less well at the subsequent election in 2019, tipping a 28-seat Conservative majority that actually came in at 80.
It seems News Corp plans on getting some bang for its presumably considerable buck here by dealing out results piecemeal, as all we have at this stage is projected results from seats in which independent candidates (plus Rebekha Sharkie of the Centre Alliance in Mayo) might be thought competitive. Since the model works by inferring how people will vote based on demography rather than in response to their specific local circumstances, I suspect it would be more robust in traditional party-based contests.
The results nonetheless point to Liberal defeats at the hands of teal independents in Kooyong (by 53-47) and Goldstein (52-48), but not in Wentworth (56-44) or Mackellar (53-47), and particularly not in North Sydney and Curtin, where independents are projected to finish a fairly distant third behind Labor. There is also no suggestion of independent Georgia Steele being competitive in Hughes, contrary to some media reports.
Indeed, the North Sydney result is interesting in showing Labor within striking distance at 53-47, consistent with the account of Liberal internal polling by Karen Middleton in the Saturday Paper and John Howard’s presence at Trent Zimmerman’s campaign launch last week. It is also encouraging for Labor in crediting them with a 53-47 lead in Boothby, and deficits of only 52-48 in each of their little-rated prospects of Page, Casey and Flinders.
The incumbent cross-benchers are projected to retain their seats, but by a narrower margin than I would have thought likely in the case of Andrew Wilkie in Clark (61-39 over Labor, a swing against him of 10%). Rebekha Sharkie is also credited with a margin of only 52-48 in Mayo, a swing against her of 3%. Zali Steggall is projected to slightly increase her 7.2% margin in Warringah, while a lead of 53-47 is projected for Helen Haines in Indi, compared with her 1.4% winning margin in 2019. The neighbouring seat of Nicholls, where independent Rob Priestly is widely thought to be a show, is not featured.
Also:
• Peter van Onselen reported on Ten News yesterday that “an unauthorised leak of Liberal polling” showed the Liberals trailing Labor by 55-45 in Bennelong, and also behind in Reid and Robertson, together with Gilmore and Parramatta, which the party has had high hopes of gaining from Labor. Van Onselen specified that this was polling conducted by the party’s fractious New South Wales branch, and was not part of the federal party’s tracking polling of 20 target seats.
• Raf Epstein of the ABC in Victoria posted results of Redbridge Group polling conducted for independent candidate Monique Ryan that showed her on 32.3% of the primary vote in Kooyong, behind Josh Frydenberg on 40.5% but narrowly ahead after preferences. The Greens are said to be on 8.4%, Labor 6.7% and the United Australia Party 5.2%.
• Day one of pre-polling on Monday drew 309,769 voters. Comparisons with 2019 are complicated by the fact that the pre-poll period has been reduced from three weeks to two: 661,225 pre-poll votes were cast in the entire first week of 2019, a figure low enough to encourage each of the main parties to agree that the first of the three weeks was not worth their bother, followed by 253,684 votes on day one of week two. Antony Green is helpfully plotting the relevant statistics, which point to a substantial upswing in postal vote applications: 13.2% of total enrolment compared with 8.1% at the equivalent point in 2019.
• Michael Gunner resigned as Chief Minister of the Northern Territory yesterday, but will remain the member for his Darwin seat of Fannie Bay. The Northern Territory News rates the favourites to replace him as Nicole Manison, Deputy Chief Minister, member for Wanguri and factional colleague of Gunner in the Right; Natasha Fyles, Health Minister, member for Nightcliff and member of the Left; and, unlikely as it may seem, back-bencher Joel Bowden, Johnston MP and former AFL player for Richmond.
Cowper Lefty at 1.21
Welcome to this unhinged community.
Cowper – not a fantastic electorate for Lefties, hope you’re coping OK.
Do you have a source/link for the 50/50 poll?
Gabrielle chan.. asking questions re neglect of rural areas at expense of climate wars and coal
Cowper Lefty
Sorry, just notice your ‘internal polling’ reference…
Cowper Lefty – There are going to be a few seats nobody has talked about where independents do very well. I suspect that this election will be one to remember.
Jason Clare and Tony Burke have just finished a PC on 7 news.com.au
Always take “Internal” with a grain of salt. But, judging by the amount of signage for Caz Heise she is all over the place.
The Oakeshott vote will go somewhere and she has Climate 200 money.
Anyone going to ask Barnyard to release the secrete corrupt Collation Agreement, so the voters know what backroom deals are in place?
If they have nothing too hide why is it secret
Barnaby Joyce’s view on Independents is absurd. His brain can’t compute anything beyond the two-party system.
Cowper – not a fantastic electorate for Lefties, hope you’re coping OK.
=================
Is it? Kempsey? Bellingen?
Isn’t BB in Cowper?
@Snappy Tom
Thanks for the update mate. I live in Newcastle, 5 minutes from the freeway and 25 from the beach. I came here 12 years ago from Sydney and have never looked back. Just find it interesting that Scummo is up here again today. Hopefully he’ll piss off for good in about 10 days.
Cheers
south @ #319 Wednesday, May 11th, 2022 – 12:25 pm
It’s the Hail Mary shot to keep the faithful Liberal sheep from carelessly wandering into that greener pasture without realising that it’s someone else’s. What a good shepherd Rupy is.
Shows how Joyce and crew are shitting themselves over the Teals. If the Teals were backing the Coalition they would be welcome with open arms.
“Barnaby Joyce’s view on Independents is absurd. His brain can’t compute anything beyond the two-party system.”
This is quite ironic since he is literally from a 3rd party.
Jan at 1.33
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Division_of_Cowper
I’m surprised! Labor’s actually held Cowper for 2 years (1961-63) since Federation! So, not quite the worst place to be Left!
Shamahan and the Oz running strong a pay rise for workers. Saying its another Albo mistake.
” By Dennis Shanahan
12:27PM May 11, 2022
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Anthony Albanese is trying to walk away from his latest economic blunder by suggesting he’s not saying that Labor supported a wage rise of at least 5.1 per cent to keep pace with inflation.
The Opposition Leader, accused of being reckless and a “loose unit” on the economy, has avoided using the figure of 5.1 per cent today as have his frontbench colleagues as they go into another bout of damage control and spin after Albanese has publicly blundered.
Labor can see the damage being done and more importantly the much worse damage that will be done if Albanese’s “absolute commitment” to linking the current minimum wage case to the headline 5.1 per cent inflation rate.
Again under pressure over economic detail Albanese would not use the figure of 5.1 per cent, would not say Labor would commit to linking minimum wage rises to the Consumer Price Index or specific inflation rates and argued outright that he hadn’t made the commitment on Tuesday.”
https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/nation/anthony-albanese-tries-to-walk-away-from-latest-economic-blunder-this-time-on-wages/news-story/3da673f8071ab85590f5436414ae270a
C@tmomma @ #323 Wednesday, May 11th, 2022 – 12:29 pm
Don’t be disingenuous. It’s a simple donkey vote after the primary vote and ordering the major parties. The ballot will never be counted past the second preference. KISS. Labor has done much more reprehensible preferencing intentionally.
This is quite ironic since he is literally from a 3rd party.
======================
That might change in 2 weeks time.
Firefox says Wednesday, May 11, 2022 at 1:06 pm
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/greens-sign-preference-deal-with-clive-palmer-20130819-2s7kz.html
And, Clive’s party then voted to remove the ETS.
I also had the (good?) fortune to hear Barnaby Joyce speaking at the MPC while driving back at lunchtime. What a mind! What a voice! What an orator!
On his argument about independents, of course, he made clear that the Nationals and Liberals are as one body in coalition, joined at the wallet.
So when you vote Liberal, you get the climate change policies of Barnaby and the Nationals.
He also failed to mention how the National Party can pay back the billions in subsidies rural industry gets, rural rail lines and regional tax breaks. This is all while the gas and coal companies he champions still pay no tax and among the world’s lowest royalty rates, even while export prices near record levels.
Barnaby spruiks the great Australian rural economic lie. We stopped living off the sheep’s back a long time ago.
Snappy, would have been a lot of timber workers back then. And I recall Kempsey and even Coffs (or is that not in Cowper?) as working class. Plus some centre left sea changers.
Ah Mr “Howard can win with 48.5%” at it again.
Taylormade @ #334 Wednesday, May 11th, 2022 – 12:34 pm
Yep, you’ve spent it over the last 12 months.
But hey, it’s not perfect, but at least we have preferential voting in the first place. So much more democratic than the terrible FPTP systems in places like the US and UK.
Not often I agree with you Firefox, but on this we are as one.
Tom, I fully understand the implications of optional preferential. Shit how long have we had it at State level now? I don’t advocate for it for any perceived political advantage. I simply would like the option of not having to express a preference for any of the various right wing nut job lunatics, nor indeed the Coalition (except in extremis such as the 2007 state election where I was a term in front of the pack in realising the government needed a good clean out and so didn’t muck around with protests).
I fully support compulsory voting on the basis of balancing rights with responsibilities. ie If you want the right to live in a relatively free and functional democracy you have a responsibility to at least participate in that democracy to the extent of turning up to a polling place and getting your name marked off the roll (or face a really very minor fine). And I also fully support preferential voting. The idea that you must choose just one candidate out of a smorgasbord of variously acceptable candidates as under FPTP is bunk. Why shouldn’t a voter have the right to nominate a range of acceptable candidates in order or preference? What balancing responsibility could possibly be harmed?
But I don’t believe the compulsion to register a preference for every single clown that pays their nomination fee is equally a responsibility balanced by an equivalent right. If as an elector I have the right to assign a preference to candidates surely the right to not assign a preference to candidates that I find completely unacceptable is equal. What responsibility to our democracy would I be failing to simply rank the few candidates I would be happy to represent me and should none of them reach a majority to accept in good grace that my preferred candidates had all been defeated?
The new(ish) Senate method is much more to my taste. I would eliminate the minimum number also, but as you’re not voting for just one position I can understand it’s purpose.
None of this is anything I’d die in a ditch over. Compulsory full preferential voting in the HoR is a very very minor inconvenience and infinitely preferable to FPTP. But if the Federal Parliament moved to the same as the NSW State OP method I’d be happy with that and if Labor suffered some minor disadvantage as a consequence, well that’s something we’d just have to get over.
The lowest paid shitkickers cant have a pay rise but CEOs can have bonuses and companies can make huge profits. Liberal DNA 101.
Snappy,
I’d say it’s photoshopped!
Albanese is so worried by his ‘gaffe’ on pay rises that the ALP plan to advertise on it.
Focusing on the fact that Morrison is loudly proclaiming it shouldn’t happen.
Rex Douglas @ #344 Wednesday, May 11th, 2022 – 12:40 pm
You do know that half the population has below average intelligence, don’t you?
Des at 1.34
Greetings, relative newcomer to The Hunter!
My extended family has a long history here (1840s).
I was born in the Country-Party-voting central west, then, aged 13 we moved to Country-Party-voting Scone.
My eyes were opened when I moved to Newcastle for uni, coinciding with Hawke ’83.
In ’88, I took my first fiance, a Melbourne small-L Liberal, to a speech at uni from Gough on the ’88 referenda (all of which failed.)
There was a little confusion before Gough started and he stuck his head out between the stage curtains to check something. This produced a 1500-person standing ovation! Not from First Fiance, who couldn’t believe it…
Within a year, I’d sufficiently critiqued the assumptions of her naive liberalism that she remains to this day further Left than me. We divorced a few years later…
Robert Lee @ #426 Wednesday, May 11th, 2022 – 1:46 pm
Morrison has finally found a point of difference with Labor. Took 3 years but he got there.
😆
But Albo doubles down in the SMH. I hope this will be the theme tonight. Albo can hit SfM for 6.
““We have been running a campaign every day of this campaign about cost of living, and one of the themes of our campaign, including at the campaign launch, was ‘no-one left behind’,” Albanese said.
“What we are talking about here is the circumstances right now where people are doing it really tough, they are on $20. 33 an hour. $20. 33 an hour. Those people will not benefit from any of the tax cuts that will come in. They are on $20. 33 an hour.
“When raised
in the debate on Channel Nine on Sunday night, I got two questions to the Prime Minister. I prioritised the issue of ‘should Australians be paid at least the minimum wage?’ He couldn’t even agree to that.“
He also referred to his speech last week to the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry, in which he said productivity was the key ingredient.
“What I spoke about was bringing unions and business together for common interest to work together on that common interest,” he said.
“I’m the Labor leader, but I’m amazed that this is not a bipartisan issue because this is a government that had been prepared to go back, did a budget just a short while ago, whereby they made changes to petrol, they gave $250 handout, they did all of this cost of living relief, saying there was a cost of living crisis.”
https://www.smh.com.au/national/election-2022-live-updates-anthony-albanese-comes-under-fire-for-saying-he-supports-5-1-per-cent-wage-hike-campaigns-continue-across-the-nation-20220510-p5ak4m.html
Liberal democrats have no redeeming features.. let her rip economic policy No way.
Have noticed some scattered posts today regarding COVID, case nos., masks, people’s attitudes to same, etc.
Last night’s Big Ideas program on RN had Professor Nancy Baxter, Professor Michael Toole, Emeritus Professor Stephen Duckett and Associate Professor Deborah Gleeson discussing what living with COVID really means.
Worth listening to if you have 55 minutes available.
https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/bigideas/living-with-covid/13868754
“If you want a payrise to combat the rise of living costs, vote ALP.
Here is smirko (in his own words) fighting against giving you money to pay for his governments interest rate rise/rise in inflation”
As someone who earns well above award wage, I do not understand how anyone could stand in the way of those near minimum wage earning more money.
Voted just a while ago and nice to see that the crowd gathered and talking to the Labor folk were of a boomer age with little or no interest in the LNP mob. No SfM images and just the one LNP corflute with Labor signage in ample evidence.
Just wondering how you tell someone on a minimum or low wage that they need to avoid a pay increase ? Who do business groups think are going to need a decent wage to purchase their shit?
My tip is ALP for majority government and Ukraine in the Eurovision.
Woke-pc-thug at 1.51
As someone on a non-govt pension, I fully understand why wealthy profit-takers stand in the way of low-paid people getting ANY kind of pay rise!
The Guardian..
12m ago
13.42
Barnaby Joyce finishes on wages, but there are a lot of words and not all of them seem to be in an easily understood order, so the short version is; he is against Anthony Albanese’s argument.
Takes after Joe from Qld
How out of touch do you have to be to consider supporting a minimum wage increase in the current economic conditions to be a gaffe.
Sceptic says:
Wednesday, May 11, 2022 at 1:31 pm
Anyone going to ask Barnyard to release the secrete corrupt Collation Agreement, so the voters know what backroom deals are in place?
If they have nothing too hide why is it secret
-———————————
He was asked about that quite early. The incredible contortions he went through answering the question brought on the nose bleed. The veins in his nostrils couldn’t stretch at the same pace as his nose.
C@tmomma @ #322 Wednesday, May 11th, 2022 – 12:29 pm
The Greens seem to be judging LDP candidates on a case-by-case basis. As are Labor, I think. For example, in Ryan, the Greens have LDP ahead of PHON and UAP, and in Brisbane, they have LDP even ahead of the LNP. In Werriwa, they’re below UAP but above PHON.
It makes sense – the LDP have a mixed bag of policies and attitudes, so the only way to reasonably figure out where to put them would be to look at each candidate independently, and figure out which issues they care about, and where they stand.
The media will show that they are against low paid wage rises too by spinning Smokos line too.Thats a given.
Strategic voting question of a different kind…
Should I vote on the 21st (in Paterson electorate) and enjoy the gratification of knowing my vote helped St Antony call the seat for Labor?
Or, should I pre-poll and be a small counterpoint to the ‘pre-polls/postals favour Coalition’ thing?
Snappy Tom, most prepolls are counted on the night now, but I suppose later on, when it is more likely a result would’ve been ‘called’.
I prefer voting on the day, never been a long line or anything for me.
I am delighted that Albanese is doubling down on the pay rise for the low paid. It is more than justified. For big businesses like Coles and Woolies, wages for store staff are often less than 10% of their costs. A 5% rise for their wages would increase costs by less than half a percent.
The “economic” scare campaign against wage rises is a pack of lies. Hearing it is a good way to identify corporate shills. The RBA and Treasury have been calling for faster wage growth for several years, and admit its absence has harmed the economy.
In fact even major retailers have started calling for wage rises in line with inflation, including the Woolworths CEO.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/major-retailers-call-for-wage-increase-in-line-with-inflation-20220407-p5absn.html
Patrick Bateman says:
Wednesday, May 11, 2022 at 10:38 am
Do people understand that vegetables are seasonal and it’s not currently capsicum season?
————————————————————————-
Depends where you are. I am in Adelaide and just a few days ago picked my first four red capsicums. I still have quite a few green ones slowly but surely ripening up. The green beans have pretty well finished though.
Its an argument over 38 cents an hour, FFS.
Morrison has to beat up every slip or suggestion of a slip from Albanese because he’s behind with just over a week to go.
We had an interesting electoral method whilst I was at uni in the UK (last century!).
You had preferential voting but with an extra candidate called “re-election” which could not be eliminated. Like our system in Aus the lowest candidate was eliminated each round and the votes transferred according to 2nd pref etc ..
Essentially if more than 50% of the electorate disliked the eventual lead candidate you simply went again.
I never saw “re-election” win a poll, but there have been a couple of times since I have been in Aus it would have been useful.
Example: 2007 Federal election. The final 2 in Boothby were Andrew Southcott
(aka the invisible candidate) and Nicole Cornes
(who evidently knew nothing about politics but got picked on family name (AFL)]
Regarding just-in-time voting (aka on-the-day voting) versus the get-er-done type, I found the release quite cathartic when we voted on Monday. 🙂
Given the Liberals have since time long gone, handed out a “fistful of dollars” just prior to an election, the drive by Albanese to put some money in the hands of those who most need it, and have the Liberals and their media mates at the Murdoch outfit, criticise him for somehow not understanding “economics” must be some joke….
What was the $250 just recently to the oldies then?
The Liberals, pre and post Covid have stacked up a mountain of debt/deficit.
The LNP have no credibility at all now when it comes to “managing the economy” otherwise where is the “Debt Bus” they were keen to pull out come election time in days gone by?