YouGov has dropped the first results from Australia’s first ever published MRP (multi-level regression with post-stratification) poll, which aims for a detailed election prediction by surveying an expansive national sample of 18,923 and using demographic modelling to project results for each electorate. Its methods are outlined in The Australian by Campbell White of YouGov and University of Sydney data science lecturer Shaun Ratcliff. The method became something of a cause celebre when it predicted the hung parliament at the United Kingdom election in 2017 that crippled the prime ministership of Theresa May, a rare success for the British polling industry in that period. However, it did less well at the subsequent election in 2019, tipping a 28-seat Conservative majority that actually came in at 80.
It seems News Corp plans on getting some bang for its presumably considerable buck here by dealing out results piecemeal, as all we have at this stage is projected results from seats in which independent candidates (plus Rebekha Sharkie of the Centre Alliance in Mayo) might be thought competitive. Since the model works by inferring how people will vote based on demography rather than in response to their specific local circumstances, I suspect it would be more robust in traditional party-based contests.
The results nonetheless point to Liberal defeats at the hands of teal independents in Kooyong (by 53-47) and Goldstein (52-48), but not in Wentworth (56-44) or Mackellar (53-47), and particularly not in North Sydney and Curtin, where independents are projected to finish a fairly distant third behind Labor. There is also no suggestion of independent Georgia Steele being competitive in Hughes, contrary to some media reports.
Indeed, the North Sydney result is interesting in showing Labor within striking distance at 53-47, consistent with the account of Liberal internal polling by Karen Middleton in the Saturday Paper and John Howard’s presence at Trent Zimmerman’s campaign launch last week. It is also encouraging for Labor in crediting them with a 53-47 lead in Boothby, and deficits of only 52-48 in each of their little-rated prospects of Page, Casey and Flinders.
The incumbent cross-benchers are projected to retain their seats, but by a narrower margin than I would have thought likely in the case of Andrew Wilkie in Clark (61-39 over Labor, a swing against him of 10%). Rebekha Sharkie is also credited with a margin of only 52-48 in Mayo, a swing against her of 3%. Zali Steggall is projected to slightly increase her 7.2% margin in Warringah, while a lead of 53-47 is projected for Helen Haines in Indi, compared with her 1.4% winning margin in 2019. The neighbouring seat of Nicholls, where independent Rob Priestly is widely thought to be a show, is not featured.
Also:
• Peter van Onselen reported on Ten News yesterday that “an unauthorised leak of Liberal polling” showed the Liberals trailing Labor by 55-45 in Bennelong, and also behind in Reid and Robertson, together with Gilmore and Parramatta, which the party has had high hopes of gaining from Labor. Van Onselen specified that this was polling conducted by the party’s fractious New South Wales branch, and was not part of the federal party’s tracking polling of 20 target seats.
• Raf Epstein of the ABC in Victoria posted results of Redbridge Group polling conducted for independent candidate Monique Ryan that showed her on 32.3% of the primary vote in Kooyong, behind Josh Frydenberg on 40.5% but narrowly ahead after preferences. The Greens are said to be on 8.4%, Labor 6.7% and the United Australia Party 5.2%.
• Day one of pre-polling on Monday drew 309,769 voters. Comparisons with 2019 are complicated by the fact that the pre-poll period has been reduced from three weeks to two: 661,225 pre-poll votes were cast in the entire first week of 2019, a figure low enough to encourage each of the main parties to agree that the first of the three weeks was not worth their bother, followed by 253,684 votes on day one of week two. Antony Green is helpfully plotting the relevant statistics, which point to a substantial upswing in postal vote applications: 13.2% of total enrolment compared with 8.1% at the equivalent point in 2019.
• Michael Gunner resigned as Chief Minister of the Northern Territory yesterday, but will remain the member for his Darwin seat of Fannie Bay. The Northern Territory News rates the favourites to replace him as Nicole Manison, Deputy Chief Minister, member for Wanguri and factional colleague of Gunner in the Right; Natasha Fyles, Health Minister, member for Nightcliff and member of the Left; and, unlikely as it may seem, back-bencher Joel Bowden, Johnston MP and former AFL player for Richmond.
Taylormade at 12.34
Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha…!
Just received word from Albo: he read your post, your withering critique is too good for him, he’s retiring from politics to take up basket weaving. Thought you’d like to know.
leftieBrawler @ #349 Wednesday, May 11th, 2022 – 12:41 pm
It is certainly true that we have never been seen together.
For those who don’t know Nicole Manison, the front runner for NT Chief Minister, she was the woman in the video sitting to the right of the PM during the Dawn Service. He was texting during the Service, she was paying attention to the speaker.
I worked with her for five years. She’s smart, empathetic, and genuine. If she gets the gong it will be great for the NT.
Lars
Unionists have no faith whatsoever in the UK Conservatives. That is why they will be staying out of the assembly until they see actions on the protocol, not words. As for Donaldson having to sell a deal on the protocol to the unionist/loyalist electorate, I suspect he now understands very well that he can’t do that. The DUP tried a wishy washy response to the protocol for some time last year; it got them a poll result of 13 percent in August last year. That is the good thing about the rise of the TUV; the DUP now understands that if they go soft on the protocol they will simply bleed votes to the TUV. If there is no action on the protocol, there may be no assembly for a long time.
In Deakin the ALP have gone for the Donkey vote – 1 to 10 in that order – Sukkar is in at 6 in the batting line up…
Sukkar has gone on a similar theme. Note his extra level of special hatred for the greens:
Poroti…(long one)
As one of the few who bother with the West these days, you undoubtedly saw yet another air-head piece from one Kimberley Gaines…
This was the person who, after about a week on the campaign trail, was in full whinge mode because the food and coffee with the Labor crew were not to her liking…
Oh, and because of Albo’s gaffe, he was, according to her, kind of “not fit” to be PM.
This woman has popped up again today…
This time it is to bewail the fact that Morrison has been shouted at to “go home” (Alice Springs) and attacked over “broken promises” at the Royal Easter Show in Sydney…..
She is miffed because, as she puts it….”The Labor leader is now being treated more sympathetically, which could play into his hands……”
Oh dear, oh dear………
She finishes her pathetic piece saying that while there is a “lot of compassion for Albanese…voters really need to think if the Labor leader has what it takes to be the 31st prime minister of Australia”…
Where does the Stokes crew get these airheads?
Coupled with the totally freaked out front page you showed, the wagging of the finger at Julie Bishop and the cartoon, the West looks a lot perplexed at the moment………………
The irony is the paper is swamped by the yellow ads for Palmer’s bunch of loonies – with Chief Looney Craig Kelly on the inside page…..
mundo says:
Wednesday, May 11, 2022 at 12:33 pm
Don’t be sly. You know I mean soccer.
中华人民共和国
🙂
C@t,
Does your advocacy for Far-Right Libertarians on the issues you’ve listed mean that you also support their other policies?
Pattern against user at 12.40
+1
One caveat, the so-called “journos” aren’t feral, they’re organised, anti-Labor combatants.
south says:
Wednesday, May 11, 2022 at 12:25 pm
The heir apparent if Scott Morrison loses the election – a likely prospect according to recent opinion polls – risks being turfed out of politics.
This is where the sympathy / save the furniture vote kicks in, “must vote for Frytheplanet so we have a leader of the opposition”
leftieBrawler @ #350 Wednesday, May 11th, 2022 – 12:41 pm
Lars von Liberal has had a lot of sockpuppets but Player One isn’t one of them.
So my triennial Federal democratic responsibilities in the Division of Macarthur have been discharged.
C’town prepoll was consistent, but not particularly busy in the little while I was there. One Lib, one PHON, and a couple from team Good Guys. The Lib and PHON where sitting under their brollies as I went up but didn’t even bother acknowledging me as I went in. I must project the aura of a dude who knows a preferential ballot and how to use it.
Dr Mike 1 and then donkeyed it. Obviously not going to have any prefs distributed but it did bring a wry smile to see that the Gs and Libs ended up second last and last using that method. Which is where I would tend to rate them if the various rag tag nutters from UAP, ON and Lib Dems weren’t also on the ballot…
I wouldn’t be against optional preferential at the Federal level.
In the senate I did the reverse order BTL trick to do my admittedly very minor and almost certainly completely forlorn bit to get a third ALP senator up. Sent any potential surplus to Caro then AJP (just to make the Greens wait for it) and the Democrats (for old time’s sake) before giving Shoebridge a 15.
Whilst I was there I picked up my Red shirt ready to do my HTV shift from 3pm. Hoping the drizzle to poq, but expecting a damp arvo.
Tony Windsor
@TonyHWindsor
·
20m
A 5% increase in lowest paid wage would be $1 per hour.
The business community suggest 3.1%, that is 62c per hour.
So the debate is whether 38c/hour will ruin the economy.
God help us…
Regarding wage increases at this time – people hoping for relief from rising prices actually vote, whereas “the economy” doesn’t vote.
bakunin,
It wasn’t advocacy. It wasn’t support for the Libertarians. It was a comment asking why the Greens support PHON and the UAP, both Anti Vaxxer parties, over the Liberal Democrats, who at least have SOME redeeming policies.
Labor need to make some attack ads out of Morrisons attitude toward increasing the minimum wage..
Show some photos of scotty and his multiple dish home cook ups.. and how it seems very easy in Scotty’s little world to find the money to buy all the produce at the supermarket to cook up 2-3 course dinners for his family.. with different dishes and options..
Show how much Scotty gets in meal allowance everyday he attends parliament..
Then hammer home how so far out of touch he is by not being willing to even consider a miniscule pay rise for workers whos wages are going backwards..
I cant believe this “let them eat cake” flog of a PM thinks he’s actually on a winner by screaming about Albo wanting the lowest payed in our societies to be given a small leg up…
This is just how clueless and desperate he is getting..
Barnaby Joyce at the National Press Club sounds like he is having a stroke. Some of it is word salad.
Crikey has a free article on the impact of Frydenburg losing his seat;
https://www.crikey.com.au/2022/05/11/josh-frydenberg-loss-would-change-face-of-liberal-party/?utm_source=pushengage&utm_medium=push&utm_campaign=pn
And in the comments, check out how Andrew Bonnell skewers Frydenburg perfectly.
poroti @ #343 Wednesday, May 11th, 2022 – 12:39 pm
Of course he is. He’s part of the Golf Club claque that support the Liberal Party.
Where is Andrew Gold ? We haven’t heard from him for a while
Well we know that the Anti-vax independent in Gilmore will get at least 2 votes. 😆
“I wouldn’t be against optional preferential at the Federal level.”
***
I reckon we should have to give out the first 3 preferences and then the rest should be optional. I’d put the Coalition, PHON, UAP, LD, etc… all equal last if I could lol. But hey, it’s not perfect, but at least we have preferential voting in the first place. So much more democratic than the terrible FPTP systems in places like the US and UK.
All Labor need to do for a killer ad is have two graphs: inflation on one axis and wages under the Coalition and wages under Labor going forward on the other.
Ratsak at 12.48
Beware Optional Preferential.
As others have posted previously, NSW Labor thought it a cunning plan to profit from (fairly rare) 3 cornered ALP/Lib/Nat contests.
In actuality, high exhaustion rates mean Labor often gets less than 80% Greens prefs in NSW state elections.
Labor-introduced Optional Preferential has made Labor’s electoral task in NSW harder. Frickin’ genii…(I prefer plurals ending in vowels)…
C@t,
What makes you think Lib Dems are any less anti-vax than PHON, UAP or AFP?
Their Victorian MPS were standing arm in arm with Monica Smit and the Alt-right during the Melbourne anti-vax protests.
If you loved the “Hole in my bucket” ad, you will start drooling and begin babbling incoherently over this latest Liberal offering.
Lol Taylormade
@steve777 the volunteers (including the yelling Liberal ones) were some distance from the actual voting space. It was part of the “gauntlet” voters have to walk through where we have HTVs thrust in our direction from all angles. I wouldn’t call what the Liberal volunteers were doing harassment, it was more that it was annoying, loud, obnoxious and rude.
Ok maybe not p1. But I’m fairly sure Lars ran as a filler candidate for the UAP last time when all candidates got paid
I’ve shown the liberal ad “not my job” to several peeps. They all thought it was a Labor attack ad. You really gotta laugh.
Meanwhile there will be no more lockdowns. They cannot work when we are no longer quarantining returning travellers or isolating at home.
Those days are over.
It is all about having everyone boosted, and aged care residents with 4th shot.
Tricot at 12:44 pm
I peruse the ‘deadwood’ West when getting my coffee in the a.m. , always a couple of minutes of Jeebus ! , FMD! or OMG! Perfect reminders of why I have not purchased a copy since last century (love the sound of that 😆 )
The ‘yellow ads’ were indeed !! Full page 2 and 3 and at least one other full page in the front half. On top of which numerous big yellow Palmer shit stain strips across the bottom of pages. I’d love to know what his total spend in WA is. Clive would definitely be on Stokes’ Xmas card list for that.
Mind you during The Plague The Worst Australian newspaper had a number of front pages featuring Clive that were very unflattering. Stokes knew which way the wind was blowing I guess 🙂
Their ‘apology’ ? 😆
On radio this morning I heard for the first time an election ad for the Libs read by Frydenberg himself (generic Lib ad not Kooyong specific). Frydenberg’s ad reading is only a step above catatonic. Say what you want about Morrison, his line delivery is much better than that. It says a great deal that the Liberal Party is running an ad read by a senior Minister who’s not the PM. Both that they think the ads read by Generic Voice Actor Lady are probably tuned out and people might pay more attention to the familiar droning tones of Joshy F, and also that they don’t dare put Morrison’s voice on high rotation in Victoria lest it backfire even though objectively he’s far better suited to voicing a radio pitch that attracts attention from listeners with some verve and emphasis to it.
I reckon they have to be worried about driving the Albo vote in Victoria up to Andrews level. Ironically it may be easier for Labor to win a swag with a swing in Vic from an already high base than to get a swing in Qld off a low base.
Barney in Tanjung Bunga says:
Wednesday, May 11, 2022 at 12:53 pm
Well we know that the Anti-vax independent in Gilmore will get at least 2 votes.
中华人民共和国
Could be one less….
https://www.sorryantivaxxer.com/
Rocket Rocket @ #328 Wednesday, May 11th, 2022 – 3:32 am
The polling may have influenced the timing somewhat Rocket Rocket but everyone knew it was coming for a few years as the UKIP vote was slowly climbing
I wanted Ed Miliband to get in first and announce a future Labour government would hold an In/Out referendum, this would be around 2011 time when he was going well in the polls
If he’d done that the UKIP win in the 2014 Euros would never have happened, the UKIP insurgency would never have boiled over (it had already started) in my South Yorkshire neck of the woods
Given what we know now about the Labour-leaning demographics in the North and Midlands I think Labour could then have won in 2015
I also think Remain wins a referendum in 2016 in that alternative scenario as it would have taken the edge and temperature out of the issue
PS I predicted a 51-49 or 52-48 Leave vote at 10am on the day of the referendum – much to the shock of my die-hard UKIP neighbour – after sniffing the wind at the Polling Station early doors 🙁
Most “I’m just against the mandate” types are blatantly antivaxxers hiding behind a more palatable position, it’s not their real objection. In theory the LDP should be an exception because government mandates of all types are genuinely against their established ideology. This is rather undercut by some of the candidates they’ve welcomed in, though.
Granny Anny at 12.52 re Crikey on impacts of Frydenberg loss…
I came away from that article with a bit of ‘please keep Josh, he makes the Liberals less bad’ flavouring. Did you?
Yeah, NAH. The Liberals sowed the Right wing wind, courtesy of Howard, Kroger and others. They’ve chosen to clean out or ignore so-called moderates (who’ve failed to stand up to the Right.)
Let the formerly-Liberal Party reap the centre-right whirlwind! Let the party lose bulk seats to both Labor and Teals!
The Liberal Party will not change until it realises it can’t win. Let them lose. A lot. In a lot of places.
“bakunin,
It wasn’t advocacy. It wasn’t support for the Libertarians. It was a comment asking why the Greens support PHON and the UAP, both Anti Vaxxer parties, over the Liberal Democrats, who at least have SOME redeeming policies.”
***
By this terribly flawed logic, someone could put the UAP ahead of Labor just because apparently Clive’s nutters don’t support off shore processing of asylum seekers: https://www.unitedaustraliaparty.org.au/flawed-asylum-seeker-policies-wasting-billions-clive-palmer/
Of course, that would be an incredibly stupid thing to do as, while they may not support abusing asylum seekers like Labor does, the rest of the UAP’s platform is totally batshit insane.
Greensborough Growler says:
Wednesday, May 11, 2022 at 1:04 pm
中华人民共和国
Ohhh I like that one cobber.
“Firefox:
Newman’s former state electorate of Ashgrove has a fair bit of crossover with Ryan, so that may have something to do with it.”
Campbell Newman’s electorate was Ashgrove. He lived in seat Brisbane Central now named McConnell when he first ran for premier. I’m not sure he is still based there.
Apparently he decided not to run for the seat of Brisbane Central at the time because rates anger directed at him as Brisbane City Lord Mayor. In hindsight it wouldn’t have mattered anyway and he would of won such the extent of the Queensland state election landslide in 2012.
bakunin,
Having listened to our local Liberal Democrat explain the position of his party wrt vaccines I know that they agree that vaccines are effective but they wish to leave it to individuals to decide whether they want to be vaccinated or not.
The UAP believe in Hydroxychloroquine and Ivermectin to treat COVID-19. PHON are Anti Mandate for vaccines.
So I know whose position I prefer out of the 3 parties, even though it’s a Hobson’s Choice ultimately.
However, my point still stands, that The Greens have put the rabid Anti Vaxxer parties above the one which agrees with vaccination but leaves the choice up to the individual. Did The Greens not even realise this before they made their preference choices?
GG at 1.04
Is that an actual billboard (if so, any idea where?) or (clever) photoshopping?
Morrison billboard.
Don’t make me go back to live in the Shire., please.
Snappy Tom @ #392 Wednesday, May 11th, 2022 – 1:13 pm
Looks like photoshop.
Now Barnaby has a blood nose at the NPC. Maybe he is actually having a stroke. He has been rambling on about a Green controlled Labor government.
“C@tmommasays:
Wednesday, May 11, 2022 at 12:54 pm
All Labor need to do for a killer ad is have two graphs: inflation on one axis and wages under the Coalition and wages under Labor going forward on the other.”
All good up to the last bit C@t. Labor can only put a case to the FWC to raise the minimum wage by inflation
A poster Bullshit Man can use.
_________Cutting Your Wages Since 2009 _________
B.S. Fairman @ Wednesday, May 11, 2022 at 1:15 pm
“Now Barnaby has a blood nose at the NPC. Maybe he is actually having a stroke. He has been rambling on about a Green controlled Labor government.”
There are other reasons for a bloody nose. I can think of one definite risk factor for Joyce and another very possible reason just prior to needing a boost before going on stage…
Long time reader.
I have just seen some internal polling in Cowper showing it is 50/50 with the teal Independant.
Maybe a seat to watch that nobody is talking about.
Great to see Albo doing a more cut through message on the minimum wage. I wonder when the next Essential is coming? I was expecting it yesterday. It seems to be the most unexciting of any of the polling outfits for some reason, with Resolve not far behind. Still, would like to see some more polls.
The next instalment of the Yougov MRP 24th century technology/warp drive uberpoll will be interesting, but not sure how much credence to give it.