YouGov has dropped the first results from Australia’s first ever published MRP (multi-level regression with post-stratification) poll, which aims for a detailed election prediction by surveying an expansive national sample of 18,923 and using demographic modelling to project results for each electorate. Its methods are outlined in The Australian by Campbell White of YouGov and University of Sydney data science lecturer Shaun Ratcliff. The method became something of a cause celebre when it predicted the hung parliament at the United Kingdom election in 2017 that crippled the prime ministership of Theresa May, a rare success for the British polling industry in that period. However, it did less well at the subsequent election in 2019, tipping a 28-seat Conservative majority that actually came in at 80.
It seems News Corp plans on getting some bang for its presumably considerable buck here by dealing out results piecemeal, as all we have at this stage is projected results from seats in which independent candidates (plus Rebekha Sharkie of the Centre Alliance in Mayo) might be thought competitive. Since the model works by inferring how people will vote based on demography rather than in response to their specific local circumstances, I suspect it would be more robust in traditional party-based contests.
The results nonetheless point to Liberal defeats at the hands of teal independents in Kooyong (by 53-47) and Goldstein (52-48), but not in Wentworth (56-44) or Mackellar (53-47), and particularly not in North Sydney and Curtin, where independents are projected to finish a fairly distant third behind Labor. There is also no suggestion of independent Georgia Steele being competitive in Hughes, contrary to some media reports.
Indeed, the North Sydney result is interesting in showing Labor within striking distance at 53-47, consistent with the account of Liberal internal polling by Karen Middleton in the Saturday Paper and John Howard’s presence at Trent Zimmerman’s campaign launch last week. It is also encouraging for Labor in crediting them with a 53-47 lead in Boothby, and deficits of only 52-48 in each of their little-rated prospects of Page, Casey and Flinders.
The incumbent cross-benchers are projected to retain their seats, but by a narrower margin than I would have thought likely in the case of Andrew Wilkie in Clark (61-39 over Labor, a swing against him of 10%). Rebekha Sharkie is also credited with a margin of only 52-48 in Mayo, a swing against her of 3%. Zali Steggall is projected to slightly increase her 7.2% margin in Warringah, while a lead of 53-47 is projected for Helen Haines in Indi, compared with her 1.4% winning margin in 2019. The neighbouring seat of Nicholls, where independent Rob Priestly is widely thought to be a show, is not featured.
Also:
• Peter van Onselen reported on Ten News yesterday that “an unauthorised leak of Liberal polling” showed the Liberals trailing Labor by 55-45 in Bennelong, and also behind in Reid and Robertson, together with Gilmore and Parramatta, which the party has had high hopes of gaining from Labor. Van Onselen specified that this was polling conducted by the party’s fractious New South Wales branch, and was not part of the federal party’s tracking polling of 20 target seats.
• Raf Epstein of the ABC in Victoria posted results of Redbridge Group polling conducted for independent candidate Monique Ryan that showed her on 32.3% of the primary vote in Kooyong, behind Josh Frydenberg on 40.5% but narrowly ahead after preferences. The Greens are said to be on 8.4%, Labor 6.7% and the United Australia Party 5.2%.
• Day one of pre-polling on Monday drew 309,769 voters. Comparisons with 2019 are complicated by the fact that the pre-poll period has been reduced from three weeks to two: 661,225 pre-poll votes were cast in the entire first week of 2019, a figure low enough to encourage each of the main parties to agree that the first of the three weeks was not worth their bother, followed by 253,684 votes on day one of week two. Antony Green is helpfully plotting the relevant statistics, which point to a substantial upswing in postal vote applications: 13.2% of total enrolment compared with 8.1% at the equivalent point in 2019.
• Michael Gunner resigned as Chief Minister of the Northern Territory yesterday, but will remain the member for his Darwin seat of Fannie Bay. The Northern Territory News rates the favourites to replace him as Nicole Manison, Deputy Chief Minister, member for Wanguri and factional colleague of Gunner in the Right; Natasha Fyles, Health Minister, member for Nightcliff and member of the Left; and, unlikely as it may seem, back-bencher Joel Bowden, Johnston MP and former AFL player for Richmond.
@hazza – despite what some think, the media knows a close race equals more eyes/clicks. Yes, some definitely have agendas, but their core agenda is income.
Alias at 11.10
Yes: “We’re the better economic managers – all evidence to the contrary!” Doesn’t seem to have gone down too well.
c@t I almost chocked on my beer when I heard it! Maybe the big boss feels he needs to sell more papers to keep up with the QC bills he is footing for a certain someone
hazza4257 @ #1540 Wednesday, May 11th, 2022 – 11:10 pm
Murdoch’s switching now. Labor in a landslide. Hoping to generate a few contrarian voters who don’t like to see a landslide so will vote for the losing side to even things up. It’s a no cost strategy for Murdoch.
BTW If there was ICAC in that country, it would explode due to over work however.
Just getting through the Rajapaksa family would take years
Albo passed the Pub Test
“Labor leader Anthony Albanese has taken a convincing win in his final debate against Prime Minister Scott Morrison
Mr Albanese prevailed, scoring 50 per cent of the vote from 160 undecided voters around the country, the PM claimed 34 per cent while 16 per cent remained undecided during their final TV showdown.
The pair revealed what they admire most about each other as they went head-to-head, debating about wages, the economy, climate change, integrity and stopping the boats.
In a rare break from continual barbs, the pair were asked during the third and final debate, hosted by Channel 7, what their rivals’ strengths were.
Mr Morrison said the Opposition leader never forgot where he came from, ‘he grew up in community housing’ and he had shown ‘determination’ to rise from humble beginnings to become Labor leader.
“I admire that in Australians and I admire that in Anthony,” he said.
But he couldn’t resist one final dig, saying ‘but he’s not across the detail’ required to be an effective prime minister.
Mr Albanese said the job of prime minister was difficult but he admired Mr Morrison’s commitment to mental health funding.”
https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/national/federal-election/leaders-debate-scott-morrison-and-anthony-albanese-face-off-in-last-tv-debate/live-coverage/28c8ec3ad89dd067aead884dea1451cd?amp
In WA, voters watching in the seat of Hasluck, currently held by minister Ken Wyatt, returned a deadlocked vote: 44 each and 12 undecideds.
The thing that I picked up from the people in the pub was that they were primed to react negatively to Morrison’s worst character traits. Like when he was given the opportunity to say something nice about Albanese and he pivoted to a sledge half way through. People picked that up and they didn’t like it.
Alias at 11.11
Thanks re Hasluck numbers.
So, Scomo couldn’t win ANY pub test tonight? Poor Lanai Scarr, indeed!
Snappy Tom @ #1550 Wednesday, May 11th, 2022 – 11:13 pm
Lanai said that there was polling in one of their newspapers tomorrow, showing that 53% believed that Albo was the better economic manager.
The tide is turning.
50/50 in Hasluck is a big swing to Labor
JenAuthor @ #1558 Wednesday, May 11th, 2022 – 11:18 pm
Exactly what I was going to say. A 5.9% margin in Hasluck and a 50/50 result gives us an indication of the swing.
Ratsak @11:12 +1.
Simon Jackman’s site for this election tracking election odds
https://simonjackman.github.io/sportsbet/
I might regret this comment in 10 days time, but this election has 1996 like vibes for me, I will not be shocked if Morriscum and his forces lose 20 seats or more.
The first seat Labor will gain is Reid, the soon to be ex MP Fiona Martin blew herself up today in that radio debate.
Herald Sun reckons the ALP is set for a convincing victory with polling revealing 11 big-name MPs are in danger of losing their seats and six electorates are too close to call.
aliassays:
Wednesday, May 11, 2022 at 11:04 pm
“Just for the sake of the thought exercise, can Labor plausibly win without winning any seat in WA?”
Yes, if they don’t win a seat outside of WA.
In fact it wouldn’t be close.
True for most states but.
”
C@tmommasays:
Wednesday, May 11, 2022 at 11:12 pm
hazza4257 @ #1519 Wednesday, May 11th, 2022 – 11:04 pm
Who is the bloke on the left on 7?
Simon Jackman from The University of Sydney:
Professor · University of Sydney
Specialties: data science, statistical computing, survey research. Experienced statistical consultant in litigation and business.
Professor of Political Science, United States Studies Centre, University of Sydney
”
Jackman made the best political comment by a political commentator this election campaign and I am absolutely certain nobody else can better. He said that there is genuine difference in philosophy of contenders and the way a Government should operate. He am reflecting it properly but he really put much more eloquently. What he said is the gist of this campaign and current politics.
Evan says:
Wednesday, May 11, 2022 at 11:20 pm
I might regret this comment in 10 days time, but this election has 1996 like vibes for me, I will not be shocked if Morriscum and his forces lose 20 seats or more.
The first seat Labor will gain is Reid, the soon to be ex MP Fiona Martin blew herself up today in that radio debate.
——————
Don’t think you will be regretting it because since the long lock down there has been an angry vibe towards the government and because its been coming from conservatives its reminded me of 1990 and 1996.
“The thing that I picked up from the people in the pub was that they were primed to react negatively to Morrison’s worst character traits.”
With an AWFUL lot of that priming done by members of his party that he has pissed off by trying to throw his weight around with his captains picks in NSW. Yup, Labor has reinforced that as they can, but Morrisons performances during the campaign have been a big contributor.
“50/50 in Hasluck is a big swing to Labor”
Yah……there is that wot. 🙂 🙂
Great result for Albanese. His emphasis on increased female participation in the workforce based on Labor’s childcare policy will be a sure winner in the election. And he showed particular
wisdom by not piling on Morrison in the last question whereas
the PM couldn’t help himself.
Kevin gets a nod in the Skipistan Guardian: ‘From eminent psephologist Kevin Bonham’.
”
DPReesays:
Wednesday, May 11, 2022 at 11:16 pm
In WA, voters watching in the seat of Hasluck, currently held by minister Ken Wyatt, returned a deadlocked vote: 44 each and 12 undecideds.
”
If ALP and Libs are 44% each on PV on election night, ALP will win Hasluck.
C@tmomma @ #1536 Wednesday, May 11th, 2022 – 9:09 pm
Not that surprising, Morrison is just trumpeting the line “we’re the better economic managers” and providing no
Evan @ #1563 Wednesday, May 11th, 2022 – 9:20 pm
Yeah it feels increasingly like it’ll be a better than expected Labor win. We shall see but I think the perceptions about Albanese are improving and Scomo has already been branded a dud.
Mexicanbeemer at 11.20 and others re YouGov ‘poll-like object’…
IIRC, YouGov estimated Labor picking up 11 seats (they have 69.)
YouGov also put 6 seats – 5 Coalition-held, 1 Labor – as too close to call.
Then they said Labor most likely wins 80. Seems low to me.
Current ALP 69 + 11 awarded by YouGov + maybe half the 6 ‘too close to call’ = 83.
Surely YouGov should be nominating 83 as most likely??
Thoughts, anyone?
It’s time, I’ve observed that news Ltd do eventually turn, and turn quite dramatically in the last week of a a campaign when they finally accept Labor is going to win..
It’s part of Murdoch’s very public defrocking of the outgoing PM. It’s a very brief honeymoon period for the new Labor government. It works two ways for news Ltd – firstly they give the allusion of balance by not going after the new ALP gov before they even get sworn in. Secondly it allows them to shape and dictate what the LNP’s new narrative will be to the new LOTO and his/her front bench
”
Evansays:
Wednesday, May 11, 2022 at 11:20 pm
I might regret this comment in 10 days time, but this election has 1996 like vibes for me, I will not be shocked if Morriscum and his forces lose 20 seats or more.
The first seat Labor will gain is Reid, the soon to be ex MP Fiona Martin blew herself up today in that radio debate.
”
Liberal candidates have already blew up in 3 states i.e. VIC, NSW and QLD.
Has Scomo got a rabbit out of the hat for his Sunday launch, like new tax cuts? He and his backers will be getting desperate, or is he hoping for a Murdoch dirt file job on Albo?
Murdoch of course could very well decide to start being at least neutral and put a muzzle on the likes of the hopelessly pro Morrison Simon Benson and Dennis Shanahan.
Bellwether @ #510 Wednesday, May 11th, 2022 – 12:53 pm
That has been the Coalition approach.
They never even made a submission stating the Government’s position on any increase.
I would imagine that Labor in Government would make an actual submission advocating for the larger increase.
Evan at 11.30
It has already been conclusively established that the rabbit resides in Scomo’s arse.
Comment on extraction of said rabbit should be left to medical experts.
After all, “I’m not a surgeon.”
Ven @ #1571 Wednesday, May 11th, 2022 – 9:26 pm
Chances are Hasluck will be gained by Labor. There’s a big chunk of voters in the Ellenbrook area in the mortgage belt northwest of the electorate who have been redistributed out of Porter’s old seat of Pearce. The state seat of West Swan at the 2021 WA election had a 2PP of 84-16 to Labor. Of course that won’t be remotely similar at the Federal election but it is an indicator of where things may go.
Q: Has Scomo got a rabbit out of the hat for his Sunday launch, like new tax cuts?
Surely that’s the last trick they have to play..usually they are screaming lower taxes and tax cuts all the time, but they have been awfully quiet this time.
Gents, Morrison is a grub, we know it, not a gracious bone in his body. Gosh, I hope I have good reason to get pissed on election night May 21.
We will have quite a gender gap this time. 50 years old and over 50s blokes seem to love Scomo(I am an exception to that rule), whereas he is doing badly with women.
”
mjsays:
Wednesday, May 11, 2022 at 11:34 pm
Ven @ #1571 Wednesday, May 11th, 2022 – 9:26 pm
”
DPReesays:
Wednesday, May 11, 2022 at 11:16 pm
In WA, voters watching in the seat of Hasluck, currently held by minister Ken Wyatt, returned a deadlocked vote: 44 each and 12 undecideds.
”
If ALP and Libs are 44% each on PV on election night, ALP will win Hasluck.
Chances are Hasluck will be gained by Labor. There’s a big chunk of voters in the Ellenbrook area in the mortgage belt northwest of the electorate who have been redistributed out of Porter’s old seat of Pearce. The state seat of West Swan at the 2021 WA election had a 2PP of 84-16 to Labor. Of course that won’t be remotely similar at the Federal election but it is an indicator of where things may go.
”
mj
The Pub of Channel 7 ‘undecides’ in Hasluk electorate was in Ellenbrook suburb. When Channel 7 interviewed one of the participants, who was atleast in his 40s (maybe 50s even), he said his part ( Ellenbrook) of electorate was in Pearce electorate last election and they have issues with how Porter conducted himself. Since this suburb is now in Hasluck, Ken Wyatt is having some difficulty acquainting himself with this part of electorate.
Announcing a further tax cut after over so many have already voted would be electoral stupidity of the highest order… so I guess it means…??
Bummer for the liberal party, they still have to do their launch a week out.
God that’s going to be a maudlin event.
It seems 906000 people have already voted in this election.
Evan @ #1576 Wednesday, May 11th, 2022 – 11:30 pm
(I guess I missed some excitement tonight.) But on this point, and assuming people who are early voting at the moment are doing so roughly the way that the polls are saying, then the Coalition will have fallen a fair way behind by Monday morning. Sunday’s launch will have to be a doozy that Labor won’t be able to counter.
It’s not an enjoyable task as Labor having to campaign hard to unseat one of the very few Indigenous members of parliament. But I guess Ken made his choice with the Libs
Apropos of absolutely nothing, I was reminded of “Captain GetUp” at the last election campaign and laughed uproariously for a minute straight. Holy shit that was deranged.
And speaking of GetUp, so glad that after they announced they were alive after all and were going to help in Goldstein and Zoe Daniel gave them the “fuck OFF” sideeye we haven’t heard a peep out of them.
Ven @ #1582 Wednesday, May 11th, 2022 – 9:44 pm
Ven, the Guildford Hotel where those voters gathered is quite some distance from Ellenbrook and Guildford is an established area. Ellenbrook and surrounds has had a large amount of new homes built in the last few years, it’s a younger demographic that is going to favour Labor fairly heavily. And your right the association with Porter is not really going to help.
”It’s not an enjoyable task as Labor having to campaign hard to unseat one of the very few Indigenous members of parliament. But I guess Ken made his choice with the Libs”
His voting record is virtually identical to those of Barnaby Joyce, Eric Abetz and Peter Dutton.
Kick this mob out.
WA is being made immune to the Labor bad economic managers lie because the difference between McGowan and the previous government is so stark. They’re going to give Albo a chance – if he takes it could be a seismic shift in WA long term, the way Victoria has gone from the heart of the Liberal Party to the giant pain in its backside.
leftieBrawler @ #1576 Wednesday, May 11th, 2022 – 11:30 pm
And it gives the impression that they backed/picked the winner. Murdoch doesn’t want to see seen as backing a loser because it hurts his ego and indicates that he is losing his kingmaking powers.
leftieBrawler @ #1589 Wednesday, May 11th, 2022 – 11:50 pm
A majority had no such qualms with Warren Mundine.
I met Anthony 39 years ago. He was a leader then and a charming engaging fellow. A leftist for sure but not mad, just adopting the bromides in his millieu. It will be good to see him become Prime Minister of Australia. I think the ALP will be in for 6 years but who knows? It’s going to be a difficult uncertain time for the next couple of years. I hope the prospective ALP Government pulls together.
Historyintime at 12.26
“It WOULD be good to see him become Prime Minister of Australia.”
Fixed it for you. Can’t have you tempting the wrath of the whatever from high atop the thing!
Glad you had the opportunity to meet young
Albo.
I’m with you Snappy Tom
I find it’s best to prefix everything with “if Labor wins”
Looking at those YouGov individual seat projections, it looks like their figures fall within the moe being indicated by the 2pp projection of more traditional polling in most ALP V LIB contests, although their Queensland results are at the bottom end of the range.
It does look as though there is a very strong divergence from traditional poll results in LIB heartland seats being contested by independents. Their treatment of demographic data for those seats may not be very useful for what is looking more and more like a split in the traditional Liberal voting base.
I think that may be worsened by the vote for Independents in those seats being subject to a bandwagon effect if people start to think Teal independents are a real alternative and not just a protest vote and a proportion of ALP and Green voters decide to cast tactical votes.
Historyintime @ #1596 Wednesday, May 11th, 2022 – 10:26 pm
I’m not game to predict how long a Labor govt might last, as you say it looks like it’ll be a difficult few years ahead economically.