YouGov has dropped the first results from Australia’s first ever published MRP (multi-level regression with post-stratification) poll, which aims for a detailed election prediction by surveying an expansive national sample of 18,923 and using demographic modelling to project results for each electorate. Its methods are outlined in The Australian by Campbell White of YouGov and University of Sydney data science lecturer Shaun Ratcliff. The method became something of a cause celebre when it predicted the hung parliament at the United Kingdom election in 2017 that crippled the prime ministership of Theresa May, a rare success for the British polling industry in that period. However, it did less well at the subsequent election in 2019, tipping a 28-seat Conservative majority that actually came in at 80.
It seems News Corp plans on getting some bang for its presumably considerable buck here by dealing out results piecemeal, as all we have at this stage is projected results from seats in which independent candidates (plus Rebekha Sharkie of the Centre Alliance in Mayo) might be thought competitive. Since the model works by inferring how people will vote based on demography rather than in response to their specific local circumstances, I suspect it would be more robust in traditional party-based contests.
The results nonetheless point to Liberal defeats at the hands of teal independents in Kooyong (by 53-47) and Goldstein (52-48), but not in Wentworth (56-44) or Mackellar (53-47), and particularly not in North Sydney and Curtin, where independents are projected to finish a fairly distant third behind Labor. There is also no suggestion of independent Georgia Steele being competitive in Hughes, contrary to some media reports.
Indeed, the North Sydney result is interesting in showing Labor within striking distance at 53-47, consistent with the account of Liberal internal polling by Karen Middleton in the Saturday Paper and John Howard’s presence at Trent Zimmerman’s campaign launch last week. It is also encouraging for Labor in crediting them with a 53-47 lead in Boothby, and deficits of only 52-48 in each of their little-rated prospects of Page, Casey and Flinders.
The incumbent cross-benchers are projected to retain their seats, but by a narrower margin than I would have thought likely in the case of Andrew Wilkie in Clark (61-39 over Labor, a swing against him of 10%). Rebekha Sharkie is also credited with a margin of only 52-48 in Mayo, a swing against her of 3%. Zali Steggall is projected to slightly increase her 7.2% margin in Warringah, while a lead of 53-47 is projected for Helen Haines in Indi, compared with her 1.4% winning margin in 2019. The neighbouring seat of Nicholls, where independent Rob Priestly is widely thought to be a show, is not featured.
Also:
• Peter van Onselen reported on Ten News yesterday that “an unauthorised leak of Liberal polling” showed the Liberals trailing Labor by 55-45 in Bennelong, and also behind in Reid and Robertson, together with Gilmore and Parramatta, which the party has had high hopes of gaining from Labor. Van Onselen specified that this was polling conducted by the party’s fractious New South Wales branch, and was not part of the federal party’s tracking polling of 20 target seats.
• Raf Epstein of the ABC in Victoria posted results of Redbridge Group polling conducted for independent candidate Monique Ryan that showed her on 32.3% of the primary vote in Kooyong, behind Josh Frydenberg on 40.5% but narrowly ahead after preferences. The Greens are said to be on 8.4%, Labor 6.7% and the United Australia Party 5.2%.
• Day one of pre-polling on Monday drew 309,769 voters. Comparisons with 2019 are complicated by the fact that the pre-poll period has been reduced from three weeks to two: 661,225 pre-poll votes were cast in the entire first week of 2019, a figure low enough to encourage each of the main parties to agree that the first of the three weeks was not worth their bother, followed by 253,684 votes on day one of week two. Antony Green is helpfully plotting the relevant statistics, which point to a substantial upswing in postal vote applications: 13.2% of total enrolment compared with 8.1% at the equivalent point in 2019.
• Michael Gunner resigned as Chief Minister of the Northern Territory yesterday, but will remain the member for his Darwin seat of Fannie Bay. The Northern Territory News rates the favourites to replace him as Nicole Manison, Deputy Chief Minister, member for Wanguri and factional colleague of Gunner in the Right; Natasha Fyles, Health Minister, member for Nightcliff and member of the Left; and, unlikely as it may seem, back-bencher Joel Bowden, Johnston MP and former AFL player for Richmond.
“The Liberal ad response to the ALP ad of Morrison saying
“It’s not my job” will work. No doubt.”
Well they might work if he had actually ever done his job.
the ‘not my job’ attack works because it resonates with what he actually did.
Other than your good self I don’t think the LNP ‘defense’ of Hawaii SfM will fool anyone, we are a very stupid country but few of us are that stupid.
The potential problem i see with Morgan switching from voter indicated preferences to 2019 preferences, is that it introduces ‘herding’, they are ignoring what people are telling them because it looks out of sync with what others have told other pollsters samples.
Shane Wright reports that truck drivers are warning households face paying $20 extra a week for grocery essentials because the federal Coalition has bungled a centrepiece of its budget cost-of-living measure to cut the cost of petrol.
Horses*it…
Headline in the Australian: “PM warns of ‘vandal’ Albanese”
If you are an employee, the Prime Minister and Murdoch think that you are paid too much and that your real earnings should continue to go backwards.
Implied probability of winning from betfair.com
As at: May-11 (previous week in brackets)
Coalition majority: 7.2% (4%)
Coalition minority: 23% (24%)
Labor minority: 19% (19%)
Labor majority: 50% (53%)
Average number of seats LNP seat lost to ALP: 6.9 (6.8)
MOE (66% CI): 5.6 (5.0)
The YouGov MRP poll appears to have slightly improved the coalition’s outlook.
I would love a Journo to ask Morrison how he can rationalise and afford to give a $9000 tax cut to those who don’t need it and oppose a wage rise on those who desperately need it
I’m not sure getting Morrison’s mug plastered all over people’s screens is really what the Coalition wants to be doing at this or frankly any stage of the campaign.
The ALP wants to ensure the election is a referendum on Scott Morrison. So here’s the Libs saying here have more Scomo. Let’s talk more about Scomo. Watch Scomo dissemble…
Labor should simply respond with more clips taken out of context and hope the Libs come back with parts 2 and 3 of this.
To be fair, voters should get to ask journalists questions.
Over the past few days, Kevin Rudd in Sydney has campaigned in the seats of Parramatta, Reid, Bennelong and Banks.
All seats with big Chinese demographic groups.
ratsaksays:
Wednesday, May 11, 2022 at 8:05 am
I’m not sure getting Morrison’s mug plastered all over people’s screens is really what the Coalition wants to be doing at this or frankly any stage of the campaign.
—————————————-
It is noteworthy that the only advertising that is showing Morrison’s face is Labor advertising.
Why was Mother’s Day was actually created
https://www.plough.com/en/topics/culture/holidays/mothers-day/the-original-mother-s-day-proclamation
Sceptic says:
Wednesday, May 11, 2022 at 7:59 am
“Shane Wright reports that truck drivers are warning households face paying $20 extra a week for grocery essentials because the federal Coalition has bungled a centrepiece of its budget cost-of-living measure to cut the cost of petrol.
Horses*it…”
Why “Horses*it”?
The LNP halved the fuel tax but at the same time removed the fuel tax credit which benefited HGV trucks etc..
For freight deliveries they roughly cancelled each other out, leaving freight companies facing the international petrol price hike unaided.
Some freight contracts have clauses linking what can be claimed to the pump price but these don’t countenance the removal of the credit, so many freight companies could be forced out of business as they cannot pass this on.
https://www.fullyloaded.com.au/industry-news/2205/sarta-yet-to-hear-from-government-on-fuel-tax-change
It is a stuff up!!
Al Pal says:
Wednesday, May 11, 2022 at 7:55 am
The Liberal ad response to the ALP ad of Morrison saying “It’s not my job” will work. No doubt.
___
Rubbish. Absolute rubbish.
One of the clips shown was a question regarding the relationship between Morrison and Andrews. Many, many Victorians won’t forget Morrison and his band of chumps taking every opportunity to take a shit on Victoria during the pandemic.
That Lib clip just makes things worse.
Peter Stanton @ #60 Wednesday, May 11th, 2022 – 8:15 am
That’s because, when the Libs photoshopped he smirk out, no one recognised him.
I still don’t get why we aren’t seeing the ad voiced by Crowe saying “we are better than that” with each bit. It simultaneously trashes the last govt and provides hope under Labor but I only ever saw it at the ALP launch.
”
ltepsays:
Wednesday, May 11, 2022 at 7:07 am
The YouGov is just one other data point. As yet untested in Australian federal elections.
”
It is the narrative Mr. Itep, the narrative for next 10 days along with alleged dirt files on Albanese to swing votes if Murdoch rags and LNP can.
People on the minimum wage in real terms now effectively get paid less then people in the United States that are on the minimum wage. Let that sink in.
This is as a direct result of deliberate policies of the Liberal and National government.
The current minimum wage is $20.33 an hour. Yes it should go up by 5 percent to $21.34 (as a minimum)
I used to get paid more doing bar work while I was at university over 10 years ago !
I am glad that Labor has made this an election issue.
New Fowler article:
https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/national/federal-election/independent-dai-le-takes-on-keneally-in-fowler-with-shoestring-budget-and-a-secret-weapon/news-story/8a891c22c7aea36de768e961842847b7
Looks like an Albo emergency visit to Fowler could be on the cards if this article reflects the mood of the local peasants.
Now that is some Morrison grade bullshit. As if he would make that public.
Interesting to see the right wing media switching back to focus on bikies and heroic sick babies and stuff like that. Nothing good to say about politics so they’ll say nothing…
LongMemory82 says:
Wednesday, May 11, 2022 at 8:30 am
People on the minimum wage in real terms now effectively get paid less then people in the United States that are on the minimum wage. Let that sink in.
This is as a direct result of deliberate policies of the Liberal and National government.
The current minimum wage is $20.33 an hour. Yes it should go up by 5 percent to $21.34 (as a minimum)
I used to get paid more doing bar work while I was at university over 10 years ago !
I am glad that Labor has made this an election issue.
__________________________
I googled it mate, your claim is bullshit. US minimum wage currently is $US 7.25 per hour.
Lars , Most states in the U.S have a higher minimum wage than the feds do. Google that!!
Windhover @ #42 Wednesday, May 11th, 2022 – 7:48 am
Indeed. Reminds me of a certain PB poster who insists we declare who we intend to vote for. Some people just don’t seem to get it.
I agree Albanese did the right thing by declaring his support for 5.1% wage increase in line with inflation. Of course the Coalition will say it will accelerate interest rates, ruin the economy and stall economic recovery and the Business sector will say oh no we can’t afford it and your lettuce will cost more and other bleatings will abound from Birmingham, Morrison and Frydenberg and the RWNJ media will play it’s roll as they always do when the notion of minimum wage increases raises it head.
Albanese has gone out of an limb here to make a very clear distinction between Labor and the Coalition on cost-of-living which seems to be THE burning issue of this election. I hope he hammers that home tonight at the final debate on 7. Good on you Albanese for sticking your neck out and backing low income earners and a decent minimum wage. People will sit up and pay attention to this when they go to vote if cost of living is foremost in their minds. A Labor Party clearly and unambiguously backing the working class- who’d a thunk it.
ratsak says:
Wednesday, May 11, 2022 at 8:05 am
…….
Labor should simply respond with more clips taken out of context and hope the Libs come back with parts 2 and 3 of this.
Labor gave it no context. The add works because “not my job” has been said s0 often.
Technically the US minimum wage varies widely as states determine their own… so it is as high as $15.
The Federal Minimum has been lagging behind many yokel states – mostly because Republicans refuse to raise it as apparently having lower paid people with money to spend is bad… because profits and only in this case is the economy not cyclical… but trickle down is cool and real!
On the Lib ad … explaining is losing. Political defence 101 is NEVER repeat your accuser’s accusations back at the audience. You validate it.
2010 (I think) US Senate candidate Christine O’Donnell was accused of being a witch (or being into black magic specifically) … she wasn’t going to win, but instead of laughing it off or talk about her own faith etc – she had the “I’m not a witch” ad. And it blew up whatever little chance she had.
This isn’t as bad as that, but it shows they know Morrison is the problem and they need to defend him … a week and a half out.
BK
Thanks, greatly appreciated.
bug1 says:
Wednesday, May 11, 2022 at 7:58 am
The potential problem i see with Morgan switching from voter indicated preferences to 2019 preferences, is that it introduces ‘herding’, they are ignoring what people are telling them because it looks out of sync with what others have told other pollsters samples.
——
Not sure about that, because according to the info given above by Sohar, based on the old method Morgan would still have produced a result between the latest Newspoll and Ipsos results – and the latest Morgan is still in that range. There are reasons why previous preference flows are preferred by most pollsters over respondent allocations (which William has explained before).
The real question is why Morgan used respondent allocation in the first place, and yes there is a also genuine question as to why they would go back to the historical preference allocation method 2 weeks before a federal election. Seems shambolic to say the least.
The journalists have their email address appended to their profiles (and pictures of themselves, which I find interesting)
You can email them – just don’t expect a response
The RBA sets an inflation rate within a band, a band I understand is 2% to 3%
Given the RBA Governor promotes wage rises in excess of the rate of inflation, this would appear to deliver increases in the minimum wage of to the order of 2.5% to 3.5% in the normal course of the RBA delivering
I think the last FWA decision was 2.5%
The fact that inflation is, from the latest measure, at 5% projected to 6% before the drivers mitigate is read as a movement in excess of the band
The wage figure is not a 5% increase per se, it is a movement of 1.5% from the upper levels of the band
In forward projections business would account for band inflation increases in their personnel expense (including superannuation)
Those forward projections also include increases in other operational costs, some discounted to depreciation but others such as cost of money purely a tax deductible expense (noting dividends are from after tax profits)
Wages and salaries along with superannuation are tax deductible expenses to business
To just focus on 5% is not the assessment
The question is, if you can not afford 5% (then adjusted for tax deductibility) what can you afford – and why?
Noting that the RBA band plus the RBA Governor says that wages should be increasing by 2.5/3.5% per annum to maintain equity and economic capacity
There is data re the concentration of economic activity – and the last I was aware of the concentration was to Company Balance Sheets, not households
So business has had the doubly whammy of regressive wages policy and extraordinary low cost of borrowing to shore their Balance Sheets, for 14 years since the GFC
And now they scream!!
In regards the prospects of recession courtesy of inflationary pressures driving up interest rates, and the impact on Equity Markets, who thinks the brief of Central Banks is to drive economies into recession, forcing Central Bank interventions to address recession?
The 10 Year Bond Yield in the USA is to the order of 3%
The 10 Year Bond Yield in Australia is to the order of 3.5%
This implies lenders lending at around 5%
If borrowers can not afford that, something is very wrong
And savers will be getting around 3% (up from zero!)
Dine out on that!!
Mind you business, by their submissions to FWA can never afford wage increases (a tax deductible expense to them)
One man’s pay rise is another man’s job
The clarion call for over 50 years from my knowledge – and still
Socrates
“ There is another story today that planning for the new nuclear sub build is now headed for delay (again). It matches comments by the task force manager (Adm Mead) yesterday that suggested delivery of a first boat towards “the end of next decade).
Not so much failing to plan as planning to fail.”
In the words of the sportscaster, “de ja vu all over again”, sigh.
Labor need to pin this to Dutton now and every day he remains in parliament.
Remember to divide US dollar amounts by ~ 0.72 to get the Australian dollar value.
So $7.25 —> $A 10.07
$15 —> $A $20.83
The it’s not my job ad works because people know they hear Morrison pass the buck and refuse to take responsibility all the time, not just 3 specific times where there was particularly good video of it. The rebuttal doesn’t get to that. Maybe Labor could show “it’s not a race”, Scotty denying he said it or that the context was wrong, and then just admitting he shouldn’t have said it.
Classic News Corp subtlety by all having hits in Albo in the same place on each front page. But there’s no editorial directive to cover the election a particular way!
Let them have a go here, a Labor leader should talk wages up and most punters won’t mind it at all.
sprocket_ says:
Wednesday, May 11, 2022 at 6:08 am
As Possum says, this has to be the weirdest ad ever…
“It’s from the Liberal Party, and it is attempting to contextualise the ‘It’s not my job’ put down… does it work?”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UjQc1ft9vII
As a first time viewer, it simply reinforced my view. Seems like a FAIL.
G’day all!
Upnorth/Beaglieboy/Dr Stupid McFumbles/Boizno – G’day to my fellow members of the over 50s Labor blokes on the grog club.
So Q&A tomorrow night has no Labor representative on the panel? An hour of Stan Grant and Paul Fletcher agreeing with each other, plus some boring advertising executive – nah, I’ll pass on that one.
Good morning all. Thank you, BK. Grey morning here with temps already in double figures. BOM radar informs me that we are in for a drizzler.
Windhover says:
Wednesday, May 11, 2022 at 7:48 am
“On RN, minister Roberts claims the teal independents are fake independents because they won’t tell us who they will support.
What? If they all came out and said they would support the ALP then Roberts would be satisfied they are independents.
What an idiot.”
Now that’s kind of logic that gave us Robodebt.
Sandman says:
Wednesday, May 11, 2022 at 8:43 am
I agree Albanese did the right thing by declaring his support for 5.1% wage increase in line with inflation. Of course the Coalition will say it will accelerate interest rates, ruin the economy and stall economic recovery and the Business sector will say oh no we can’t afford it and your lettuce will cost more and other bleatings will abound from Birmingham, Morrison and Frydenberg and the RWNJ media will play it’s roll as they always do when the notion of minimum wage increases raises it head.
———-
Sorry Sandman – Coorey hath spoken on RN and declared to PK that it is a “bungle” and speculated as to how it will play out today, deftly sketching a narrative from the gaffe(s) to this latest evidence of Albo’s naivety. Coorey mentioned that so far the patent evidence of Albo’s economic failings had not moved the polls – and sounded a little down about that: however he seemed to be looking forward to SfM now having enough ammunition to go in hard on the incompetence narrative in the last 10 days.
What I don’t get – channeling mundo – is why the ALP is not running the line: these guys have let your real wages fall over the last 10 years. Inflation is at record levels meaning your real wages are falling even faster and if you’re on an average wage you’re struggling. The other lot don’t want to do anything about it. They reckon you should just cop it -for another 10 years? Do we think wages should go up so people can keep their heads above water? You bet you are, you bet I am!
Vote strategically: vote for an Independent and get Morrison, Joyce, Tudge, Taylor and Canavan.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/11/high-profile-independents-will-negotiate-with-either-major-party-hung-parliament-teal-australia-federal-election-2022
The Libs are obviously desperate. I suspect they are fighting an uphill battle. It doesn’t matter about the context of Morrisons “It’s not my job” comments, the fact is enough people have lived through the last three years and can remember Morrison, most recently during the floods, that it doesn’t matter about those three instances of him saying “not my job”, it’s the actual reality of him walking away during disasters and putting his nose in when it was not wanted or required.
The Lying Reactionaries are running a very poor campaign. They are campaigning against themselves to a large extent. Excellent.
Cronus @ #83 Wednesday, May 11th, 2022 – 8:56 am
I wonder if this ad was a captain’s call.
Murdoch’s Advertiser today has a bold front page headline: BOOTHBY FOR LIBERALS. That’s under a kicker line: ALP poised to kick government out in key seat.
Incomprehensible.
I think the main takeaway for Labor’s Swan campaign from the West’s headline has to be that the Editor in Chief has declared they have a ‘star candidate’.
You can ignore any polling which claims the Lib/nats can form a minority or majority government with a combined primary vote of under 40%
It can not happen the lib/nats coming into this election ( 75 seats )
Warning, this is not an election related graphic but with all the graphs flying around atm I thought this one might add some clarity ***I have no idea what it’s about***
Depressed real wages are not accidental. They are core business for the Coalition.
There are four questions in relation to Albanese’s declaration that he would support a wage increase to address the 5.1% increase in COL.
1. Will it work politically? It is hard to see that it will change any votes.
2. Is it equitable? Yes.
3. How will it affect the economy? We don’t know because Albanese does not control wages.
4. What can Labor do that the Coalition did not do with respect to wages?
1. Invest more in skills. Tick.
2. Allow skilled migration where needed but give priority to upskilling Aussies. Tick.
3. Support apprenticeships. Tick.
4. Support strongly gender equity in wages. Tick.
5. Go to the Fair Work Commission with a government case supporting wage increases. Tick.
6. Get rid of the APS wage cap. Tick.
7. Get rid of anti-union legislation. Tick.
8. Get rid of legislation that favours empoyers in wage negotiations. Tick.
Has a single Independent supported 1-8? No. Why would they. Given a chance they might negotiate with the very people who have done everything they can to destroy 1-8.
frednk says:
Wednesday, May 11, 2022 at 8:45 am
Labor gave it no context. The add works because “not my job” has been said s0 often.
Though Labor took a simplistic view of Morrison’s comment, in context the comment still stands.. “not my job because……..”, Fact Check 90% correct
sprocket_ @ #12 Wednesday, May 11th, 2022 – 6:08 am
If the goal was to contextualize Morrison’s comments and make Labor’s ad look petty, then yes it works.
But if the goal was to shift votes to the COALition and deliver “bang for buck” for their advertising dollars, then it doesn’t work – it’s too long, lacks punch, and delivers no message.
Given Morrison’s narcissism, I suspect the goal was indeed the former, not the latter. So he would regard it as both a success and a good use of party money.
maxsays:
Wednesday, May 11, 2022 at 8:59 am
———-
Sorry Sandman – Coorey hath spoken on RN and declared to PK that it is a “bungle” and speculated as to how it will play out today, deftly sketching a narrative from the gaffe(s) to this latest evidence of Albo’s naivety. Coorey mentioned that so far the patent evidence of Albo’s economic failings had not moved the polls – and sounded a little down about that: however he seemed to be looking forward to SfM now having enough ammunition to go in hard on the incompetence narrative in the last 10 days.
—
Oh no the political journalist of Australia, Phil Coorey, has announced the downfall of Albanese has he. Oh dear, might as well not go and man a booth and give up on this election. Coorey is a RWNJ flog. We are wise to pay no attention to his bleatings. Albo will get this chance to go at Morrison over minimum wages tonight at the last debate and in pressers for a day or two at least. Go Albo.
And why would Chinese officials be “leaking” to Australia?
The Chines City, currently with lock down protocols in the face of 3,500 daily infections, has a population of 25 million, the same population as Australia
Now, if the “leaking” was to the USA government, that I could understand
But to publish that someone is “leaking” from official Chinese sources just begs questions