YouGov has dropped the first results from Australia’s first ever published MRP (multi-level regression with post-stratification) poll, which aims for a detailed election prediction by surveying an expansive national sample of 18,923 and using demographic modelling to project results for each electorate. Its methods are outlined in The Australian by Campbell White of YouGov and University of Sydney data science lecturer Shaun Ratcliff. The method became something of a cause celebre when it predicted the hung parliament at the United Kingdom election in 2017 that crippled the prime ministership of Theresa May, a rare success for the British polling industry in that period. However, it did less well at the subsequent election in 2019, tipping a 28-seat Conservative majority that actually came in at 80.
It seems News Corp plans on getting some bang for its presumably considerable buck here by dealing out results piecemeal, as all we have at this stage is projected results from seats in which independent candidates (plus Rebekha Sharkie of the Centre Alliance in Mayo) might be thought competitive. Since the model works by inferring how people will vote based on demography rather than in response to their specific local circumstances, I suspect it would be more robust in traditional party-based contests.
The results nonetheless point to Liberal defeats at the hands of teal independents in Kooyong (by 53-47) and Goldstein (52-48), but not in Wentworth (56-44) or Mackellar (53-47), and particularly not in North Sydney and Curtin, where independents are projected to finish a fairly distant third behind Labor. There is also no suggestion of independent Georgia Steele being competitive in Hughes, contrary to some media reports.
Indeed, the North Sydney result is interesting in showing Labor within striking distance at 53-47, consistent with the account of Liberal internal polling by Karen Middleton in the Saturday Paper and John Howard’s presence at Trent Zimmerman’s campaign launch last week. It is also encouraging for Labor in crediting them with a 53-47 lead in Boothby, and deficits of only 52-48 in each of their little-rated prospects of Page, Casey and Flinders.
The incumbent cross-benchers are projected to retain their seats, but by a narrower margin than I would have thought likely in the case of Andrew Wilkie in Clark (61-39 over Labor, a swing against him of 10%). Rebekha Sharkie is also credited with a margin of only 52-48 in Mayo, a swing against her of 3%. Zali Steggall is projected to slightly increase her 7.2% margin in Warringah, while a lead of 53-47 is projected for Helen Haines in Indi, compared with her 1.4% winning margin in 2019. The neighbouring seat of Nicholls, where independent Rob Priestly is widely thought to be a show, is not featured.
Also:
• Peter van Onselen reported on Ten News yesterday that “an unauthorised leak of Liberal polling” showed the Liberals trailing Labor by 55-45 in Bennelong, and also behind in Reid and Robertson, together with Gilmore and Parramatta, which the party has had high hopes of gaining from Labor. Van Onselen specified that this was polling conducted by the party’s fractious New South Wales branch, and was not part of the federal party’s tracking polling of 20 target seats.
• Raf Epstein of the ABC in Victoria posted results of Redbridge Group polling conducted for independent candidate Monique Ryan that showed her on 32.3% of the primary vote in Kooyong, behind Josh Frydenberg on 40.5% but narrowly ahead after preferences. The Greens are said to be on 8.4%, Labor 6.7% and the United Australia Party 5.2%.
• Day one of pre-polling on Monday drew 309,769 voters. Comparisons with 2019 are complicated by the fact that the pre-poll period has been reduced from three weeks to two: 661,225 pre-poll votes were cast in the entire first week of 2019, a figure low enough to encourage each of the main parties to agree that the first of the three weeks was not worth their bother, followed by 253,684 votes on day one of week two. Antony Green is helpfully plotting the relevant statistics, which point to a substantial upswing in postal vote applications: 13.2% of total enrolment compared with 8.1% at the equivalent point in 2019.
• Michael Gunner resigned as Chief Minister of the Northern Territory yesterday, but will remain the member for his Darwin seat of Fannie Bay. The Northern Territory News rates the favourites to replace him as Nicole Manison, Deputy Chief Minister, member for Wanguri and factional colleague of Gunner in the Right; Natasha Fyles, Health Minister, member for Nightcliff and member of the Left; and, unlikely as it may seem, back-bencher Joel Bowden, Johnston MP and former AFL player for Richmond.
Dr Fumbles Mcstupid says:
Wednesday, May 11, 2022 at 3:07 pm
“Probably the same ratings as on Sky, what I want to now is:
Will there be a ‘worm’? – It is very much missed”
There will be a worm. It won’t take long to spot him.
Boerwar @ #519 Wednesday, May 11th, 2022 – 3:01 pm
Well, it seems to be working on you 🙂
Actually I’ve never really understood why some people feel that they need to get pissed out of their brains in order to have a good time. I find the attractions of Poll Bludger quite entertaining enough without the need for mind altering stimulants such as alcohol. But that’s just me.
BK
Great graph, it says it all doesn’t it.
Sportsbet odds for Boothby:
Labor 1.29
Liberal 5.00
Sportsbet for Reid:
Labor 1.25
Liberal 3.70
Sportsbet for Bennelong:
Liberal 1.80
Labor 1.90
Sportsbet for Braddon:
Labor 1.65
Liberal 2.10
Red Kerry with Virginia Trioli this morning – definitely worth a listen !!!
Kerry O’Brien urges voters to back candidates who support ABC
Former 7.30 and Four Corners host Kerry O’Brien has urged voters to back candidates who support a strong and well-funded ABC.
Speaking to Virginia Trioli on Mornings after appearing in a new campaign video produced by ABC Alumni, Mr O’Brien said the national broadcaster has never been more important.
“The fact that the ABC has been the most trusted institution in this country for as long as it has speaks volumes for its importance, particularly at this time when there are all the signs that cannot be ignored of how our democracy is fraying at the edges,” he said.
https://www.abc.net.au/radio/melbourne/programs/mornings/kerry-obrien-abc/13876574?msclkid=e9b6dbd3d0ea11ecb62b8022c34fc004
The West Report latest.
https://youtu.be/DLgPpzM837A
Bystander @ #554 Wednesday, May 11th, 2022 – 3:27 pm
Same Bystander.
Will be disappointed if election night on PB is lowered by drunken anti-social behaviour.
‘poroti says:
Wednesday, May 11, 2022 at 3:22 pm
Boerwar at 3:12 pm
Anything from the Institute for the Study of War needs to be read with warning lights flashing. It was founded by and is led by a member of the Kagan ‘clan’ . Neocon ‘royalty’ . So keep a good supply of pinches of salt. Doesn’t mean it is all bullshit but their war mongering bullshit re Iraq,Syria,Libya etc should be kept in mind. There doesn’t seem to be a war they don’t like.’
————————————————–
Not sure about other wars, but I would give them a high score for accuracy based on anything I have been able to confirm from other sources. They usually give some suitable qualifiers where they believe there are fog of war issues.
The Greens plan to spend $24 billion to stop extinction. Amazing!
When asked what he thought of Prime Minister Scott Morrison branding Albanese a “loose unit” in response to the wages call, McGowan paused for a moment and called it an “odd statement” before lashing Morrison and ribbing gathered media.
“Attacking someone for supporting low paid people getting paid more? I mean, seriously?” he said.
“What does the Prime Minister get paid, $600,000 a year or something
attacking people who get paid $60,000 a year? I don’t think it’s appropriate.”
Bit of back up in the West for Albo
Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce gives federal election address at Press Club if you have the stomach for it.
https://youtu.be/GS6_GBuG8YA
Do you think that in the near to medium term, the Coalition can find some way electorally of winning House elections with a minority of the 2pp vote (perhaps as low as 47.5-48%), and using this strategy of forgoing winning the 2pp majority in the hope of winning seat totals, a little like what the Republicans are doing in US?
Moreover can they do this by manipulating demographic trends such that they can win lots of outer suburban/regional marginal seats by a little while allowing urban seats to be lost by a lot? And maintain a long-term lock on government in this way? I wonder whether this is a strategy that a future Dutton LNP government might consider.
“Do you think that in the near to medium term, the Coalition can find some way electorally of winning House elections with a minority of the 2pp vote”
***
It’s certainly possible: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998_Australian_federal_election
Freya Stark @ #564 Wednesday, May 11th, 2022 – 3:35 pm
Bit harder here given we dont have such a big divide on population per seat compared to the US. Of course Howard did win an election with well below the majority of 2pp, but the reality is that suburban needs across the country differ pretty drastically to regional and country needs, so they’re always going to need to tack somewhat to the centre unless the culture wars heat up as much as they have in the US (which seems unlikely given our far smaller evangelical population).
Bystander says:
Wednesday, May 11, 2022 at 3:27 pm
Evansays:
Wednesday, May 11, 2022 at 2:22 pm
For the new members here, you’re very welcome to join the over 50s Labor blokes Pissheads Poll Bludger club, actually those blokes 20 and over can definitely join up too.
Main criteria is you’re a Poll Bludger tragic, you’re of a left persuasion, and you love an alcoholic beverage or two or more.
Upnorth, Beaglieboy and myself are the conveners.
Grog on – our motto!
Actually I’ve never really understood why some people feel that they need to get pissed out of their brains in order to have a good time. I find the attractions of Poll Bludger quite entertaining enough without the need for mind altering stimulants such as alcohol. But that’s just me.
中华人民共和国
Good on ya cobber. That’s the spirit.
Random question.
Can snorting cocaine cause nose bleeds ..?
Freya Stark
The first thing the next Liberal leader has to do is declare an end to the cultural war BS because there is nothing conservative about any of it.
I really don’t get Albo.
Policy on the fly on Tuesday agreeing to match wage rises with inflation… then denying it. No squirming here. That is a lie.
He also made a similar statement when discussing the minimum wage in the second debate by talking about ‘A dollar an hour increase’ in the minimum wage.. yes… 5%. It is no good that one side of politics (the ALP in here) makes such a song and dance about the other side and, particularly, Scott Morrison, lying when Albanese does it all the time too.
1. Lying about his own resume. Nope, not an economic advisor to the Hawke Government
2. Lying about not knowing his own 6 point NDIS plan (on camera)
3. Lying about using notes on his phone about said points (while on camera actually reading them off his phone)… Lied. several. times in the same video grab.
4. Lying about promising wage increases in line with inflation.
Sure. Politician lie. Howard. Rudd. Gillard (yes, remember… No Carbon Tax). Turnbull, Morrison. Albanese. SO don’t get your knickers in a knot and suggest your candidates are Holy and the Libs are Satan. It just gets boring (and is ANOTHER lie from the ALP).
Freya at 3.35
A key prerequisite for US Republican anti-democratic behaviour (which is what it is) is optional voting. Same in the UK, where I see the “Conservatives” are passing some bullshit voter ID laws.
Australia has compulsory voting. I once opposed it, but, given the Right wing propaganda units that pass for media in this country, compulsory voting (along with a real FICAC) is a major bulwark against the sort of anti-democratic dictatorship you advocate.
The Right will need to find a way to dismantle compulsory voting. Good luck with that.
Rex Douglas says:
Wednesday, May 11, 2022 at 3:32 pm
Bystander @ #554 Wednesday, May 11th, 2022 – 3:27 pm
Evansays:
Wednesday, May 11, 2022 at 2:22 pm
For the new members here, you’re very welcome to join the over 50s Labor blokes Pissheads Poll Bludger club, actually those blokes 20 and over can definitely join up too.
Main criteria is you’re a Poll Bludger tragic, you’re of a left persuasion, and you love an alcoholic beverage or two or more.
Upnorth, Beaglieboy and myself are the conveners.
Grog on – our motto!
Actually I’ve never really understood why some people feel that they need to get pissed out of their brains in order to have a good time. I find the attractions of Poll Bludger quite entertaining enough without the need for mind altering stimulants such as alcohol. But that’s just me.
Same Bystander.
Will be disappointed if election night on PB is lowered by drunken anti-social behaviour.
中华人民共和国
Some have lowered PB being stong cold sober I do believe.
C’mon Bluepill at 3.44…
Try harder. You can do better.
You’ll have to do better, ’cause your bloke is a turd and most people know it.
Cheers Upnorth
Snappy Tom says:
Wednesday, May 11, 2022 at 3:46 pm
C’mon Bluepill at 3.44…
Try harder. You can do better.
You’ll have to do better, ’cause your bloke is a turd and most people know it.
中华人民共和国
Bluepill might get the same nose-bleed as the Beetroot.
Rex Douglas says:
Wednesday, May 11, 2022 at 3:43 pm
Random question.
“Can snorting cocaine cause nose bleeds ..?”
If you’re using a rolled up corflute the answer must be “yes”.
I leave it to others to give more informed advice, but this is a political opinions site.
Edit: For Barnaby I expect a common agricultural fertiliser might be more likely a cause.
Bystander says:
Wednesday, May 11, 2022 at 3:47 pm
Cheers Upnorth
中华人民共和国
A good cobber always got his mates back. You are alright by me son. No sweat.
Boerwar at 3:33 pm
Let’s just say am am probably permanently jaundiced when it comes to my views on them after watching a cavalcade of neocon Kagans and Kristols on Fox News from the end of the 1990’s and through the noughties. The neocon’s fingers seemed to be in every Dubya Bush pie.
But ,just for you, I will read it and try to forget, for the moment, the ocean of lies that they and their organisations have pushed in the past 🙂
As you do
——–
Ronni Salt
The grant Josh Frydenberg awarded Guide Dogs Vic for over $2.5 million came from the fed govt’s Regional Development Fund.
Rural sporting clubs, rural health hubs, rural everything missed out on desperately needed funds so Josh could boondoggle his inner urban mates.
#pffft
theunaustralian.net
@TheUnOz
BREAKING: Channel 7 Has Declared That At Tonight’s Debate Journalists Will Be Allowed To Poke Labor Leader Anthony Albanese With A Sharpened Stick If They Disagree With Him
Rex,
Not to the best of my knowledge, unless you’re using an awful lot of it.
Or so I’m told anyway
Victoria @ #579 Wednesday, May 11th, 2022 – 3:52 pm
Would a FICAC be interested in that ..?
I didnt watch the NPC address. But it appears Bjoyce was in fine form.
——-
Barrie Cassidy
Barnaby Joyce is on fire at the NPC. He says Labor wanting to govern the country exposes a sense of entitlement on their part.
Burgey @ #581 Wednesday, May 11th, 2022 – 3:53 pm
Thanks Burgey. Interesting…
It wont be ‘cheers’ will it bystander…..a warm milky cup of tea for you and Rex…..and the moment that I am drunk and anti social WB is more than welcome to ban me for life….academic as it wont happen.
Beetrooter at the NPC going all ‘folksy hick’ at the moment…
BeaglieBoy @ #586 Wednesday, May 11th, 2022 – 3:56 pm
I’m sure William will be very busy on election night and would appreciate not being distracted by drunken unruly commenting.
Barrie Cassidy
Barnaby Joyce is on fire at the NPC. He says Labor wanting to govern the country exposes a sense of entitlement on their part.
———-
I didn’t realise the Barnaby had such droll sense of humour.
Bystander @ #554 Wednesday, May 11th, 2022 – 3:27 pm
Agree entirely. A glass of nice chewy red with an evening meal, and a small glass of sublime Chambers Liqueur Muscat, every now and then, are all that I need. Plus copious draughts of Brahms, Bach, Mahler, Sibelius and several others, and challenging models to work on.
An election win will be good, to ease the background tension.
Better roads for C@t – if you belive the lying Turds.
“Morrison unveils $40 million for roads near marginal seat in NSW
By David Crowe
Scott Morrison has joined local volunteers at a beachside kiosk on the NSW central coast today to announce $40 million for local roads in order to defend the marginal Liberal electorate of Robertson and attempt to snare the neighbouring Labor seat of Robertson.
Morrison spoke with Liberal MP for Robertson, Lucy Wicks, one of his personal allies in the Parliament, and the Liberal candidate for Dobell, Michael Feneley.”
https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/election-2022-live-updates-anthony-albanese-comes-under-fire-for-saying-he-supports-5-1-per-cent-wage-hike-campaigns-continue-across-the-nation-20220510-p5ak4m.html
In theory the lowest a party could go with a TPP and remain in government is about 25%. That would mean scrapping through at just over 50% in just over half the seats and then losing the rest by 100%. Of course it would never happen but it is theoretical minimum.
I can’t see the government holding on to power if their TPP is below 49.7% or so. Too many independents to deal with too.
Rex Douglas says:
Wednesday, May 11, 2022 at 3:58 pm
BeaglieBoy @ #586 Wednesday, May 11th, 2022 – 3:56 pm
It wont be ‘cheers’ will it bystander…..a warm milky cup of tea for you and Rex…..and the moment that I am drunk and anti socisl WB is more than welcome to ban me for life….academic as it wont happen.
I’m sure William will be very busy on election night and would appreciate not being distracted by drunken unruly commenting.
中华人民共和国
You all take that as your first warning from Uncle Rex. Also no playing with matches.
@SnappyTom
Hey I’m not advocating for a right-wing dictatorship, I’m merely contemplating whether it’s a viable strategy here in Oz for the Liberal-National Coalition. I don’t even vote for them.
The Right could easily dismantle compulsory voting (and perhaps ranked-choice voting as well). If the Morrison government is re-elected, it is likely to have a majority with One Nation in the Senate. They would be onto that pronto, unless there was some constitutional barrier (eg. requirement of a referendum) legally barring their way.
I believe that with first past the post and optional voting, Labor would have probably won only a single election (1983) since WW2. They probably would have lost even in 2007
I take it that, with a comment like that, you are in favour of extinction, Boar?
Boerwar at 3:33 pm
Bloody hell. That section of the ISW must be their ‘news.com.au’ 🙂 . Quite ‘just the facts m’am’ indeed. The only criticism I could make was the lack of mention of just how important the fall of Popasna was .
Rex Douglas @ Wednesday, May 11, 2022 at 3:55 pm
“Burgey @ #581 Wednesday, May 11th, 2022 – 3:53 pm
Rex,
Not to the best of my knowledge, unless you’re using an awful lot of it.
Thanks Burgey. Interesting…”
Cocaine is a vasoconstrictor so it does the opposite. It can be used therapeutically in sinus surgery.
I can’t imagine why any self-respecting journalist would’ve attended today’s NPC address. There’s an hour of their lives they’ll never get back.
Stuart @ #595 Wednesday, May 11th, 2022 – 4:04 pm
Wombats for sure.
The difference between Rex and a wet blanket….not a lot. We are using this little theme of having a drink on election night mostly as a distraction from green/labor inanities, or the suicidal depression that envelops the place the moment a half a point comes off of the 2pp. and also as a bit of a friendship and comaraderie between like minded people….If you must know I wont/ cant drink much more than 1 glass of wine anyway owing to the ridicculous amount of medication I am on…..pull your wowser head in and mind your own business