YouGov has dropped the first results from Australia’s first ever published MRP (multi-level regression with post-stratification) poll, which aims for a detailed election prediction by surveying an expansive national sample of 18,923 and using demographic modelling to project results for each electorate. Its methods are outlined in The Australian by Campbell White of YouGov and University of Sydney data science lecturer Shaun Ratcliff. The method became something of a cause celebre when it predicted the hung parliament at the United Kingdom election in 2017 that crippled the prime ministership of Theresa May, a rare success for the British polling industry in that period. However, it did less well at the subsequent election in 2019, tipping a 28-seat Conservative majority that actually came in at 80.
It seems News Corp plans on getting some bang for its presumably considerable buck here by dealing out results piecemeal, as all we have at this stage is projected results from seats in which independent candidates (plus Rebekha Sharkie of the Centre Alliance in Mayo) might be thought competitive. Since the model works by inferring how people will vote based on demography rather than in response to their specific local circumstances, I suspect it would be more robust in traditional party-based contests.
The results nonetheless point to Liberal defeats at the hands of teal independents in Kooyong (by 53-47) and Goldstein (52-48), but not in Wentworth (56-44) or Mackellar (53-47), and particularly not in North Sydney and Curtin, where independents are projected to finish a fairly distant third behind Labor. There is also no suggestion of independent Georgia Steele being competitive in Hughes, contrary to some media reports.
Indeed, the North Sydney result is interesting in showing Labor within striking distance at 53-47, consistent with the account of Liberal internal polling by Karen Middleton in the Saturday Paper and John Howard’s presence at Trent Zimmerman’s campaign launch last week. It is also encouraging for Labor in crediting them with a 53-47 lead in Boothby, and deficits of only 52-48 in each of their little-rated prospects of Page, Casey and Flinders.
The incumbent cross-benchers are projected to retain their seats, but by a narrower margin than I would have thought likely in the case of Andrew Wilkie in Clark (61-39 over Labor, a swing against him of 10%). Rebekha Sharkie is also credited with a margin of only 52-48 in Mayo, a swing against her of 3%. Zali Steggall is projected to slightly increase her 7.2% margin in Warringah, while a lead of 53-47 is projected for Helen Haines in Indi, compared with her 1.4% winning margin in 2019. The neighbouring seat of Nicholls, where independent Rob Priestly is widely thought to be a show, is not featured.
Also:
• Peter van Onselen reported on Ten News yesterday that “an unauthorised leak of Liberal polling” showed the Liberals trailing Labor by 55-45 in Bennelong, and also behind in Reid and Robertson, together with Gilmore and Parramatta, which the party has had high hopes of gaining from Labor. Van Onselen specified that this was polling conducted by the party’s fractious New South Wales branch, and was not part of the federal party’s tracking polling of 20 target seats.
• Raf Epstein of the ABC in Victoria posted results of Redbridge Group polling conducted for independent candidate Monique Ryan that showed her on 32.3% of the primary vote in Kooyong, behind Josh Frydenberg on 40.5% but narrowly ahead after preferences. The Greens are said to be on 8.4%, Labor 6.7% and the United Australia Party 5.2%.
• Day one of pre-polling on Monday drew 309,769 voters. Comparisons with 2019 are complicated by the fact that the pre-poll period has been reduced from three weeks to two: 661,225 pre-poll votes were cast in the entire first week of 2019, a figure low enough to encourage each of the main parties to agree that the first of the three weeks was not worth their bother, followed by 253,684 votes on day one of week two. Antony Green is helpfully plotting the relevant statistics, which point to a substantial upswing in postal vote applications: 13.2% of total enrolment compared with 8.1% at the equivalent point in 2019.
• Michael Gunner resigned as Chief Minister of the Northern Territory yesterday, but will remain the member for his Darwin seat of Fannie Bay. The Northern Territory News rates the favourites to replace him as Nicole Manison, Deputy Chief Minister, member for Wanguri and factional colleague of Gunner in the Right; Natasha Fyles, Health Minister, member for Nightcliff and member of the Left; and, unlikely as it may seem, back-bencher Joel Bowden, Johnston MP and former AFL player for Richmond.
Albo is on the right track here for sure, a clear point of difference to resonate with the electorate and the whole cost of living experience.
The LNP are going to spin hard to get something positing about denying wage increases. I guess, the economy and inflation, but real wages have been falling, centralised bargaining is dead so no likley of a wage explosion and the flow on from an increase will be pretty limited anyway.
Of course the ALP cant adjust rates, just advocate for an increase, and the FWC will decide, but it a signalling exercise by the Govt, but in the current climate, very important and will resonate well.
There has been enough in the media about the Govt deliberately running a low wage strategy over the past years and the damage it has caused. So, by all means SfM run on the record for the economy, it looks very good:
Support for those on min wages – SfM removes the low income tax offset
No support for wage increases with FWA by the Govt
SfM answer to those who need a pay increase is “Go get a better job”
The Govt also increased pensions and benefits – to much hype, by the standard indexing rate of 2.1% in March as a cost of living exercise
Wage share in the economy is at historic lows and even the RBA says it is unsustainable
Staff shortages abound, particularly in the low wage sectors, perhaps a bit extra will attract some more people
Unemployment at record lows and trending down, so a low incentive for wage increase to price people out of a job
Finally, the ALP is fighting on their home ground with their agenda, might even watch the debate to see how it passes.
“Last time they had balance of power they… pushed the government. Well, what an achievement, a great reason to vote Green, if given their ideal situation they will… push.”
***
You seem to be overlooking an obvious point – that the government needed to be pushed in the first place…
The Greens are very proud of all the great work we were able to do as part of the Gillard/Bandt/Ind government. If the people of Australia put us in the balance of power we will certainly push the next government to increase wages, among many other things.
The wages thing is clearly going to play better for Labor than the coalition.
That said, I think Labor are going about this in a dumb way, that will come back and bite them, either in this campaign or after.
SfM is trying to frame this as Liberals being the one listening to the independent arbitrator and Labor being heavy handed gov intervention.
Much better to argue the process than the number.
“Labor will make the FWC a fair and impartial independent arbitrator, by firing all the hacks the Liberals put in and filling it based on merit rather than jobs for mates. Labor will provide the FWC with a set of binding principles, that must be followed in making their determination, including ensuring that minimum wage growth is tied to productivity growth. Labor then don’t need to pick a number and advocate for it each time. Then, when the liberals next get into power and stack the FWC, they aren’t able to deliver their agenda of suppressing wages, because if they try, the unions take the FWC to court, the court finds the FWC didn’t follow their binding principles.
It delivers the same outcome in the short term, is harder for a future liberal gov to wreck, and invalidates SfM’s attack lines on the issue
Firefox says:
Wednesday, May 11, 2022 at 2:41 pm
…that is to say, you are hoping that Labor lose. The most likely result of a Labor loss would be a continuation of rule by the Lying Reactionaries. Bandt has said he’s relaxed about that. These are your true gigs: running political errands and lighting scrub fires for the Reactionaries.
This time it will not work. No amount of Green chicanery will rescue the Reactionaries this time. Labor will win. The Greens and the Reactionaries will have to console each other.
Morrison criticised Albanese’s on-the-run agreement that a 5.1% pay rise was needed. So, on-the-run, he bagged the need for low-wage folk to get a pay rise.
It’s like a campaign slogan: “Inflation without a pay rise.” Vote Liberal.
I suspect he’s regretting his haste already.
So is Scotty of Campaign Greatness really arguing that workers on the minimum wage should get a cut in real wages? Even the junior reporters on the campaign buses must be able to figure out that this is a gaff.
Voice Endeavour
I only partially agree. Labor absolutely should criticise the FWC, the partisan hacks appointed to it, and replace it with something better.
But on an issue as basic as “should the minimum wage go up in line with inflation?” the answer must obviously be “Yes”.
Labor is correct to defend that premise, and attack any opponents of that claim for that reason alone. It cuts to the core of what fairness is, and what wage justice is. Labor can’t give that away and still call itself a Labor party.
Suggested new slogans for Scomo:
#ScottyFromWageTheft
#ScottyFromServitude
#ScottyFromGilead
#ScottyThe$500K_Hypocrite
Didn’t Albo merely say he’d support the decision if FWA came down with a 5.1% pay rise? Is he supposed to reject it?
Ratsak, Sandman, C@t and others fighting on the frontlines well done. I have 3 shifts on the Pre-poll booth in Makin next week….a nice safe labor seat…..but it wasnt always so
Voice Endeavour says:
Wednesday, May 11, 2022 at 2:44 pm
Labor have been clear as a bell: they will defend the living standards of ordinary people. This is a very clear line of difference with the Lying Reactionaries.
Tru to form though, a Green will try to find a way to fault Labor on this. A Green will ride shotgun for the Lying Reactionaries. There’s never any doubt about that.
I have never yet heard a Green declare they unequivocally approve of one single thing done or proposed by Labor. Never yet. They are Labor-phobic at all times and in all places.
This is all Albanese has to keep referring to to get through to all the knuckleheads gong off about his comments about wages and their affordability and effect on inflation.
Alpha Zero @ #478 Wednesday, May 11th, 2022 – 2:26 pm
The 2013 case wasn’t quite as “neat”. I mean, it meant that Family First got 3rd preference, followed by Sex Party, which doesn’t really make sense as a preference order for Labor…
But this year, it’s pretty much exactly right. Setting aside an independent that is low enough profile that I can’t even find anything about them (I don’t even know if they identify as male or female), the order makes sense.
Evan re ‘over 50s blokes Poll Bludgers Pissheads Club’…
I assume you mean in a fully-gender-inclusive (not necessarily binary) way…?
BK
Spot on. The only graph that matters.Shows the greed of companies and that trickledown economics is bullshit.
Morrison likey got cocky attacking Albanese over his call for a modest wage rise (which works out to be about $1 per hour extra?), knowing that corporate media will support his position against wage rises. Again, in unison Morrison and his mates in the media seem to have made another “gaffe”.
“P1 has the choice of various misfits”
***
P1 is fortunate that the Greens are running in Gilmore, so she will be able to vote for someone who is taking the climate emergency seriously. It’s the same situation in many electorates, including my own, where the Greens are the only option available for someone of the progressive left who cares about the environment. I’d normally put a few left wing/prog minors/indies next after the Greens but there just aren’t any this time. It’s Greens, Labor, then a bunch of far right crazies.
Plenty of options in the Senate though…
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-11/soldier-denies-making-up-story-in-ben-roberts-smith-trial/101057084
This is where it gets a tad difficult for counsel for the respondents unless of course there’s probative evidence of collusion, which has been suggested when cross-examining other witnesses for R-S.
How are the Greens going with their plan to stop evolution from happening?
Firefox @ #501 Wednesday, May 11th, 2022 – 2:41 pm
You seem to be overlooking the point that they’re making – that by only saying that they achieved “pushing the government”, the Greens are failing to actually say what the “pushing” achieved. Let me put it this way – if One Nation could say exactly the same thing, then it’s probably not a good argument for why you should vote Greens.
So the leaders debate starts at 9:10 pm.
What a fucked timeslot.
No one will watch that. It’s going to be fun, but low low impact tonight
I can only check the blog intermittently so apologies if stealing someone’s thunder.
I was driving earlier and heard the ABC’s The World Today where they discussed the minimum wage increase furore. Very one sided in my opinion with comment from various business organisations and small business operators. No comment from unions or workers, although there was a kicker at the end where they pointed out that last year executive salaries increased by about 20 percent.
One small business complained that they already paid more than the legal minimum. I would assume that as the arguement is about the minimum wage increase, if you are already being paid more or are covered by an agreement, your employer wouldn’t be obligated to increase your wages.
I think the reason Morrison is opposing a pay rise for workers on the minimum wage is to appeal to his base of small business people. A kind of save the furniture appeal to the Liberal faithful.
Having said that I’m still to scarred by 2019 to go getting excited at this stage about Labor’s prospects. 10 days is a long time.
@SnappyTom – Sorry your wife and you split. I went to Canberra as a school kid and we met Gough Whitlam in Old Parliament House. I shyly touched his suit jacket while he was speaking. He was so tall and awesome to a school kid. What a magnificent man.
BK
Your post on profits vs wages is spot on.
This quote highlights that the low wage outcome under the Liberals is not a failure. It is policy.
South, I believe Seven reckons that ratings bonanza, Big Brother, is more important.
South
Outside of peak TV watching. Will be less viewers than Qanda.
@south says:
Wednesday, May 11, 2022 at 3:02 pm
So the leaders debate starts at 9:10 pm.
What a fucked timeslot.
No one will watch that. It’s going to be fun, but low low impact tonight
____________________
Probably the same ratings as on Sky, what I want to now is:
Will there be a ‘worm’? – It is very much missed
Will the online voting buttons have more than 3 options with one not working like on 9?
Can the bar for debates get any lower???… we shall see
The Deakin Ballot paper is:
Candidate Name Party
GREGG Matt Australian Labor Party
HUMPHREYS Rob The Greens
LIU Qian Independent
DOLHEGUY Katherine Animal Justice Party
CARR Harrison Liberal Democrats
SUKKAR Michael Liberal
THOMPSON Judith Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party
GIDLEY Bianca Joy United Australia Party
BASTIN Samantha Australian Federation Party
COUGHLAN Natasha Pauline Hanson’s One Nation
Boy we’ve got a crowded list of RW nutters down ther ar53 end of the ballot there!!!
Snappy Tom says:
Wednesday, May 11, 2022 at 2:56 pm
Evan re ‘over 50s blokes Poll Bludgers Pissheads Club’…
I assume you mean in a fully-gender-inclusive (not necessarily binary) way…?
中华人民共和国
We take all cobbers, cobber. Don’t even have to drink grog!
Only political tragics will watch that debate.
steve davis says:
Wednesday, May 11, 2022 at 3:09 pm
Only political tragics will watch that debate.
中华人民共和国
That’s right – people just like us.
On the so-called Debate timeslot…
Morrison needs as many debates as possible and needs to win them all.
So far, he’s 0-2.
Maybe his media co-conspirators can spin a win for him out of tonight’s barely watched bonanza. Then again, maybe not!
Not exactly the centrepiece of a brilliant campaign, eh?
To be honest, I’m not that fussed the ABC didn’t get a debate.
It should be a big shot across the bow for their relevance and coverage.
They could offer a debate, and say an empty podium will represent non participants. It wouldn’t be biased, it’d be a power move. But as we all know, they’ve been scared into submission.
This is a positive report on progress in Putin’s War, IMO.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-10
Quite a grrrrr listening to a news item on RN. It was woe, woe is us about some skill shortages, in this case GPs. The problem ? Red tape slowing down the ‘importation’ of Doctors. Not a sausage about such shortages must surely point to a long term bigly FAIL on the part of the government to not be training enough Doctors.
Upnorth
It wouldnt change any of our votes, so I doubt if any others watching it would either.
Tory Turds – what a grub.
“A Brisbane MP has become the latest Coalition member to be accused of adopting a personal endorsement for election campaign material without consent after Julian Simmonds widely distributed a letter from the local parish.
Constituents of the Ryan electorate complained to the Kenmore parish after a letter from priest Mark Franklin was copied and shared widely.
The letter is signed by hand on the back “Authorised by Julian Simmonds MP” and is titled “Letter of Endorsement for Julian Simmonds”.
“I would like to give my support to the work of Julian in the seat of Ryan,” the letter from Mr Franklin says.
“Julian has been a strong community advocate and has been engaged in many local community groups, organisations and educational institutions within Ryan.”
“But the Archdiocese of Brisbane told The Courier-Mail the letter “complimenting” Mr Simmonds’ work was written following a request from the electorate’s office on February 8.
“This letter was not intended for the purpose of inclusion in any election campaign material,” the statement from the church said.
The Courier-Mail understands the parish has requested the distribution of the letter from the electoral office be stopped.”
https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/national/federal-election/brisbane-coalition-mp-accused-of-using-priests-letter-as-political-endorsement-without-consent/news-story/7e6caa79ba900fc298e5f85c92af6dbf?amp
Snappy Tom , all are welcome, more the merrier.
Sportsbet have altered their odds for North Sydney: the Labor candidate now 2nd in the betting, Kyla Tink in 3rd.
Boerwar @ #312 Wednesday, May 11th, 2022 – 3:12 pm
Thanks for the link.
steve davis says:
Wednesday, May 11, 2022 at 3:12 pm
Upnorth
It wouldnt change any of our votes, so I doubt if any others watching it would either.
中华人民共和国
You got that right digger.
Ppl might get to see the back of my head if watching ABC with Speers later on today. Was mnding my business shopping here in Burwood (Reid) and Speers was parked on the corner near my bus stop with a cameraman & producer. Was catching ppl walking past to question them. Gave them a wide berth bc he wouldn’t want to know what I think! But walking to bus as filming so might see a flash of moi (depending on what snippets they use).
@Evan says:
Wednesday, May 11, 2022 at 3:14 pm
Snappy Tom , all are welcome, more the merrier.
Sportsbet have altered their odds for North Sydney: the Labor candidate now 2nd in the betting, Kyla Tink in 3rd.
____________________
Just shows the betting markets are anything but rational, unless the small amount of total $bet makes them volatile to new bits of information
My guess is low ratings for the Seven extravaganza tonight. Big Brother’s young audience won’t be hanging around for an hour of Scott vs Anthony .
As Seven is blatantly pro Morrison, probably a setup to help him in their so-called debate.
Well someone has woken up……
“One of Queensland’s construction heavyweights and a longtime LNP donor has revealed he is supporting a Toowoomba independent in one of Australia’s most conservative safe seats.
McNab Constructions’ Michael McNab, whose company now turns over $400m a year, is backing Suzie Holt against incumbent Garth Hamilton in the seat of Groom in Toowoomba.
Companies led by Mr McNab have donated thousands to the LNP in the past.
Mr McNab, who spoke as a Groom resident and not in his position as a company director, said he had lost faith in the Coalition’s ability to manage several sectors in the economy.”
He also said the Liberal-National Party had become too conservative.
https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/national/federal-election/mcnab-constructions-michael-mcnab-supporting-groom-independent-suzie-holt-over-lnps-garth-hamilton/news-story/0fa5d9c11ab685dc6c2b4e5489de5e52?amp
Of course 7 is part of Smokos cheer squad.Look at Stokes bullshit toilet paper in the west.
Video footage of Fiona Martin’s gaffe this morning on 2GB.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1524237590295355392
“that by only saying that they achieved “pushing the government”, the Greens are failing to actually say what the “pushing” achieved”
***
Are you saying you think the Greens were wrong to push the government (Labor) to increase wages?
The Greens worked and negotiated constructively with Gillard and were able to get Labor to implement many of our policies, including the ETS/Carbon Price and getting dental into Medicare for millions of kids. Were we able to get Labor to do everything we wanted? No, of course not. We negotiated constructively with them and came to agreements on what we could.
Boerwar at 3:12 pm
Anything from the Institute for the Study of War needs to be read with warning lights flashing. It was founded by and is led by a member of the Kagan ‘clan’ . Neocon ‘royalty’ . So keep a good supply of pinches of salt. Doesn’t mean it is all bullshit but their war mongering bullshit re Iraq,Syria,Libya etc should be kept in mind. There doesn’t seem to be a war they don’t like.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/11/liberal-mp-fiona-martin-denies-mixing-up-asian-australian-candidates-in-debate-with-sally-sitou
We all know that all Asians look the same /sarc
Torchbearer says:
Wednesday, May 11, 2022 at 2:32 pm
“Half the war is picking your battlefield- does Morrison want wages to be the battlefield for the last week of the campaign?????
So much for a great campaigner.”
Best to fight a battle on ground of your own choosing, making best use of surprise and the most applicable weaponry and leave nothing to chance. Try never to be drawn into ground that favours your opponent, their weaponry and their timing lest you rely largely on luck to defeat your enemy. I sense an opportunity for a wonderful ambush here by Labor.