YouGov has dropped the first results from Australia’s first ever published MRP (multi-level regression with post-stratification) poll, which aims for a detailed election prediction by surveying an expansive national sample of 18,923 and using demographic modelling to project results for each electorate. Its methods are outlined in The Australian by Campbell White of YouGov and University of Sydney data science lecturer Shaun Ratcliff. The method became something of a cause celebre when it predicted the hung parliament at the United Kingdom election in 2017 that crippled the prime ministership of Theresa May, a rare success for the British polling industry in that period. However, it did less well at the subsequent election in 2019, tipping a 28-seat Conservative majority that actually came in at 80.
It seems News Corp plans on getting some bang for its presumably considerable buck here by dealing out results piecemeal, as all we have at this stage is projected results from seats in which independent candidates (plus Rebekha Sharkie of the Centre Alliance in Mayo) might be thought competitive. Since the model works by inferring how people will vote based on demography rather than in response to their specific local circumstances, I suspect it would be more robust in traditional party-based contests.
The results nonetheless point to Liberal defeats at the hands of teal independents in Kooyong (by 53-47) and Goldstein (52-48), but not in Wentworth (56-44) or Mackellar (53-47), and particularly not in North Sydney and Curtin, where independents are projected to finish a fairly distant third behind Labor. There is also no suggestion of independent Georgia Steele being competitive in Hughes, contrary to some media reports.
Indeed, the North Sydney result is interesting in showing Labor within striking distance at 53-47, consistent with the account of Liberal internal polling by Karen Middleton in the Saturday Paper and John Howard’s presence at Trent Zimmerman’s campaign launch last week. It is also encouraging for Labor in crediting them with a 53-47 lead in Boothby, and deficits of only 52-48 in each of their little-rated prospects of Page, Casey and Flinders.
The incumbent cross-benchers are projected to retain their seats, but by a narrower margin than I would have thought likely in the case of Andrew Wilkie in Clark (61-39 over Labor, a swing against him of 10%). Rebekha Sharkie is also credited with a margin of only 52-48 in Mayo, a swing against her of 3%. Zali Steggall is projected to slightly increase her 7.2% margin in Warringah, while a lead of 53-47 is projected for Helen Haines in Indi, compared with her 1.4% winning margin in 2019. The neighbouring seat of Nicholls, where independent Rob Priestly is widely thought to be a show, is not featured.
Also:
• Peter van Onselen reported on Ten News yesterday that “an unauthorised leak of Liberal polling” showed the Liberals trailing Labor by 55-45 in Bennelong, and also behind in Reid and Robertson, together with Gilmore and Parramatta, which the party has had high hopes of gaining from Labor. Van Onselen specified that this was polling conducted by the party’s fractious New South Wales branch, and was not part of the federal party’s tracking polling of 20 target seats.
• Raf Epstein of the ABC in Victoria posted results of Redbridge Group polling conducted for independent candidate Monique Ryan that showed her on 32.3% of the primary vote in Kooyong, behind Josh Frydenberg on 40.5% but narrowly ahead after preferences. The Greens are said to be on 8.4%, Labor 6.7% and the United Australia Party 5.2%.
• Day one of pre-polling on Monday drew 309,769 voters. Comparisons with 2019 are complicated by the fact that the pre-poll period has been reduced from three weeks to two: 661,225 pre-poll votes were cast in the entire first week of 2019, a figure low enough to encourage each of the main parties to agree that the first of the three weeks was not worth their bother, followed by 253,684 votes on day one of week two. Antony Green is helpfully plotting the relevant statistics, which point to a substantial upswing in postal vote applications: 13.2% of total enrolment compared with 8.1% at the equivalent point in 2019.
• Michael Gunner resigned as Chief Minister of the Northern Territory yesterday, but will remain the member for his Darwin seat of Fannie Bay. The Northern Territory News rates the favourites to replace him as Nicole Manison, Deputy Chief Minister, member for Wanguri and factional colleague of Gunner in the Right; Natasha Fyles, Health Minister, member for Nightcliff and member of the Left; and, unlikely as it may seem, back-bencher Joel Bowden, Johnston MP and former AFL player for Richmond.
Snappy Tom, I wouldn’t worry about the CNTS, big Dan will crush those CNTS and drive them out of the upper hunter permanently. I still predict Barnaby will retain his position as the leader of the CNTS
#Greenway corflute update
lib and uap EVERYWHERE
ALP hardly sighted
Schofields-Riverstone
madness
steve davis says:
Wednesday, May 11, 2022 at 2:03 pm
“Its an argument over 38 cents an hour, FFS.”
Seems to me like the perfect launch pad for a great ALP/Albo attack on Morrison.
Isn’t every wage case about x cents a hour?
Its a case of the minimum wage, not wages above that level.
Cronus says:
Wednesday, May 11, 2022 at 2:07 pm
Seems to me like the perfect launch pad for a great ALP/Albo attack on Morrison.
Not a good idea as it trivialises the difference.. it’s not the 38c it’s the principle that matters.
What tailmaid has informed us is that (whatever) is on the minimum wage
Hence looking forward to spending any 5.1% increase
Who would have guessed?
Asha
The right wing media are desperate & unfortunately they have the power to guide the narrative.
Brain dead minnows of the journo
world will go into a feeding frenzy cos someone belled “GAFFE”
I wonder if the smell of Victorians burning flesh has permanently damaged Barnaby’s nose …?
Albo just needs to push the ‘who doesn’t need a wage that matches inflation? Line to combat SfM tonight.
https://greens.org.au/platform/jobs
Beavis and Butthead had the solution for Barnaby back in the 90s:
steve davis says:
Wednesday, May 11, 2022 at 1:34 pm
Shows how Joyce and crew are shitting themselves over the Teals. If the Teals were backing the Coalition they would be welcome with open arms.
中华人民共和国
Just saw a Pic of Joyce at the PC. Geez he hasn’t aged well. Looks like the weight of the world on his shoulders – still he is a Turd.
Alpha Zero @ #354 Wednesday, May 11th, 2022 – 12:44 pm
That’s pretty awesome – the chances of that happening purely by chance, assuming completely accurate ranking, is about one in 360,000, assuming that you’re talking about the candidate in position 1’s preferences.
It’s probably a *little* bit of a mis-preference, in that it just seemed easier to sort it this way than to make sure, for instance, you put Federation Party in exactly the right place at the bottom of the list.
Snappy,
If the question is between pre-poll and election day, the real question is how early do you want Antony adding your vote to the model?
If you want to be in with 7pm first drops find the smallest country booth near you and vote there.
If you’re happy coming in after 10:30 do a pre-poll.
I don’t see why we should be ranting about the media spin on this.
We know they will – focus your energies elsewhere
Quietly I reckon Albo has sucked in Scott here. He won’t be able to help himself from making wages an issue and if the ALP and union can’t arm Albo with every possible bit of wage data, big business and economist endorsement for higher wages, and sob story anecdote on what minimum wage rises will mean for single mum Sophie, her two small kids Ollie and Tommy, and their puppy Bingo, they’re just not trying.
Morrison openly arguing on TV to suppress wages (in general not just minimum wage) will doom him to the not paying attention until now crowd. Reckon he might manage to be lured into it?
ratsak @ Wednesday, May 11, 2022 at 2:16 pm
This.
Snappy Tom
I recently paid Crikey $200 for around 2 years subscription so I can read William’s articles. But just about everything else in Crikey is a bit, well, “What really need is people like Josh Frydenberg and Trent Zimmerman. But we also really, really like the Teals. And remember not to vote Labor -they have not given you a reason to.”
And for whoever mentioned the Guardian and its love for Turnbull and hence it being a bit anti-Morrison, but still willing toggle Labor an unfair kick, it really does come through in many articles. I was quite unhappy with the article headlined Coalition and Labor pledge $40m of election cash to clubs that benefited from ‘sports rorts’
When you go through the article, it is largely (although not totally) the Coalition who have awarded money to low-ranked projects. Labor have mostly pledged money to high-ranked projects that missed out on Coalition pork last timeout that is in the last paragraph.
Might actually calculate the numbers and rankings given in the article and query why the headline was written as “same-same”. On the other hand, Amy Remikis alone earns the money I give the Guardian.
Cowper Lefty: Welcome mate to Poll Bludger!
Interesting internal poll for your seat you mentioned too.
Lads and ladies, I did my pre poll thing yesterday in the very safe Liberal seat of Berowra. Labor has f*** all chance here, but I did my bit for the cause of good anyway, the Senate vote at least always is important in this neck of the woods.
Voting experience at Pre Poll – pretty quiet, 4 Liberals and one Labor person handing out how to votes, electoral commission staff were really friendly, the whole process was very smooth. I’d guess in Thornleigh where I live, the Labor vote won’t get much past 20%.
If Morrison wants to campaign on keeping low wages down I say “great”. Dumbest idea ever.
Rising prices without rising wages only reduces consumer spending. It is a recipe for recession.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-11/morrison-hits-back-on-labor-inflation-pay-rise-push/101055134
Albanese calling for a wage rise for the low paid isn’t a “slip”. It is a good idea. It used to be standard economic policy practice.
That was until Treasury got handed over to some right-wing market-finance guys who can’t tell the difference between running a government and running a country.
Attacking Albanese wanting wage rise is another gaffe by the corrupt lib/nats propaganda media units
Rex Douglas says:
Wednesday, May 11, 2022 at 2:11 pm
I wonder if the smell of Victorians burning flesh has permanently damaged Barnaby’s nose …?
————————————————————–
Lol Rex
Let’s not forget that Howard in 2006 increased the min wage by 5.6%
That’s the argument that Albo needs to mention too!
On that the Libs have been on the small wages for years; it’s call Trickle-down economic; you know the one, that makes business rich and workers poor.. Woops.
For the new members here, you’re very welcome to join the over 50s Labor blokes Pissheads Poll Bludger club, actually those blokes 20 and over can definitely join up too.
Main criteria is you’re a Poll Bludger tragic, you’re of a left persuasion, and you love an alcoholic beverage or two or more.
Upnorth, Beaglieboy and myself are the conveners.
Grog on – our motto!
Albo needs to turn it back on Scummo and his media mates – “Scott, would you prefer those on low incomes not to get any sort of payrise or wage increase?”.
Or, “Scott, do you have any idea what it’s like to live on a low wage in an economy where inflation is surging and the price of everything essential is going up?”
You are kind of excitable, Evan.
Firefox: could you let the Greens know that that “did you know” box is terrible. Last time they had balance of power they… pushed the government. Well, what an achievement, a great reason to vote Green, if given their ideal situation they will… push. Isn’t that something they do anyway? If you’re advertising you had balance of power before maybe advertise something you achieved. And if you didn’t achieve, maybe keep quiet about it.
The left are so awful at advertising most election cycles.
GlenOsays:
Wednesday, May 11, 2022 at 2:15 pm
The ALPs preferences went 1 Labor, 2 Green, 3 Liberal.
When the ALP and greens drew the top 2 spots, I reckon it became a no brainer…
In 2013 there were 12 candidates, Mike Symon had his HTV 12 down to 1 straight down the page.
There’s a lot of don’t know, don’t care about the other candidates. When you know they won’t be a major factor, you can do stuff like this…
I think this minimum wage play by Albo could be the sucker punch of the campaign that floors Morrison and opens the electoral floodgates.
Further to my last Snappy,
If you organise a convoy of ALP mates to make a trip to some tiny out the backblocks booth to vote you could possibly get an early feature on the coverage. Somewhere like Bob’s Farm Public School or Tarro Community Hall.
Rock up there with about 20 mates and you’ll generate an 8-10% swing on primaries which will probably get a mention whilst there’s not much real info to report.
Evan, I’m in!
And who said “The Liberal party is the best friend that workers have ever had”
Tony Abbott has portrayed his government as the “best friend that the workers of Australia have ever had” as he used a speech to defend key budget policies, including tough proposals targeting unemployed youth.
An increase in the minimum wage will ripple up through the wage rates of all workers. I should think that nearly all wage earners will think that’s a good idea, considering the rising prices of fuel, food, rent, clothing and other essentials, and the prospect of an imminent increase in interest rates and mortgage payments.
Albo has clearly stated that Labor stands for improved living standards for ordinary people. Morrison has declared that he doesn’t.
This should translate into the migration of votes from the Lying Reactionaries and their subsidiaries, mimics, clones and franchisees to Labor.
Morrison has been campaigning against himself for 3 years. He’s refreshed the auto-destruct settings again this week.
He’s against action on climate change, on corruption, on the protection of the rights of women, on defending the living standards of working people. He is actively campaigning against the very things people have said they most want from government.
It is no wonder the Reactionaries are in trouble. They stand for deceit, insult, abandonment and refusal.
It’s Time @ #426 Wednesday, May 11th, 2022 – 1:48 pm
Hate to break it to you, but that need not be true.
Perhaps you meant half the population has below median intelligence?
Arkysays:
Wednesday, May 11, 2022 at 2:25 pm
” If you’re advertising you had balance of power before maybe advertise something you achieved. And if you didn’t achieve, maybe keep quiet about it.””
I think they must have a high turnover of staff and, consequently, short memories.
I think it’s safe to assume they will behave in the future as they did in the past. If history doesn’t repeat, at least it often rhymes.
Anyhoo, off t’mill (or to hand out htvs at the pre-poll)
Bludge on bludgers
Half the war is picking your battlefield- does Morrison want wages to be the battlefield for the last week of the campaign?????
So much for a great campaigner.
@Douglas and Milko:
“Might actually calculate the numbers and rankings given in the article and query why the headline was written as “same-same”.”
I have repeatedly questioned the Guardian’s headlines over a few election cycles. There’s a closet Liberal over there.
“I have repeatedly questioned the Guardian’s headlines over a few election cycles. There’s a closet Liberal over there.”
Might be AE but someone here often has a better word for it, but essentially Guardian Australia is Turnbull Liberals all the way down, I guess now you’d call them teals.
Just back from Hairdressser at Elemore Vale. Absolutely no mention of the election. No signs anywhere either.
We’re now watching the Longman debate. Young Labor candidate doing well. Lib bloke full off figures but doing OK too (that’s me trying to be fair lol)
Socrates at 2.01
Your post calls to mind a basic tenet of 1st year economics: a capitalist economy is limited by aggregate demand.
The Coalition’s wage stagnation has artificially limited the economy they’re supposed to be good at managing!
Perhaps the RBA and Treasury (and some CEOs) are worried about depression of aggregate demand eventually placing downwards pressure on (gasp!) corporate profits and (double gasp!) executive remuneration! Egads!
Outside Left: welcome mate, good to have you on board.
Maybe it’s just me but I’ve never voted on the basis of see any number of corflutes in the weeks preceding an election and to be honest the the same goes for the corflutes and banners for a given party at a polling booth.
I turn up knowing who I will vote for, if I’m with my wife I’m probably a tad more polite then if I’m by myself (so avoid laughing maniacally when refusing UAT/LNP and OAP HTV cards).
I can’t image the average punter turns up on the day and goes, I’ll vote for this or that candidate because I’ve seen their ugly mug a billion times during the election period.
Another reason to have Cricket as an Olympic Sport
“In a country where a Muay Thai right hook is more familiar than a batter’s hook shot, Thailand’s pioneering women cricketers are winning hearts with smiles, dance moves — and skill.
In contrast to Asian powerhouses India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka, where the game has deep historical roots going back to British imperial rule, cricket remains in its infancy in Thailand and is still virtually unknown.
Thailand qualified for the 2020 Women’s T20 World Cup in Australia, where the hosts beat India in the final, but further progress is being hampered by minimal exposure on television and lack of access to equipment.”
https://www.bangkokpost.com/sports/2308234/thailands-women-cricketers-look-past-world-cup-heartache
King
I think thats why the oz is trying to spin this as a gaffe.
It certainly has potential to open the floodgates.
To combat that,scream gaffe gaffe & pray for a media feeding frenzy.
Workers won’t know if Albo fluffed it or if his announcement is actual policy.
P1 has the choice of various misfits, ideologues and intransigents, Dark Blue Reactionaries, closet Reactionaries and Labor. They will settle for a Reactionary of some kind or other….and vote against the cause they say they most cherish.
Had to laugh to myself at the Bass booth pre polling in Lonny today. One solitary Liberal rep doing the HTV thing but keeping well away from the rest of us the undeserving poor like we have the plague. Also a Greens rep kitted out fully in thick hiking boots and socks, khaki shorts and top and the hyphenated dry as a bone hat parked of his/her head {who could tell ?]. Three red shirts, two Green guzzlers and reps from everyone else {Indy’s, Hanson, Pup, legalise Marijuana, JLN, Social Democrats ?, aristocrats and femocrats}
Monday was crazy all day, Tuesday slow until lunchtime then picked up again and today a steady flow. You can vote for Bass or any seat you like at this Booth: lots of interstate visitors here on Monday particularly. The vibe ? Ha, your guess is as good as mine. A senior Labor person I spoke to today said it looks 50-50 here in Bass but much better in Braddon and Lyons. Might be because they want me to do more booth work, LOL. Who knows.
ProMo out here telling people they need to be paid less for their own good – that oughta go down a treat!