The Australian reports the weekly campaign Newspoll has Labor’s two-party lead increasing from 53-47 to 54-46, their primary vote up a point to 39% with the Coalition down one to 35% and the three minor parties steady, the Greens at 11%, One Nation at 5% and the United Australia Party at 4%. Scott Morrison’s personal ratings are deteriorated, his approval down three to 41% and disapproval up four to 55%, while Anthony Albanese is up a point to 41% and down two to 47%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 45-39 to 44-42.
The poll also found Labor leading 44% to 41% as best party to handle cost-of-living pressures. On this question at least, breakdowns are apparently offered by gender (44% each among men, but 45% to 38% in favour of Labor among women) and age (dramatically more favourable to the Coalition among the old than the young, as usual). The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1523.
Also out today in the Financial Review was an Ipsos poll suggesting Labor is headed for a landslide win, with primary votes of Labor 35% (up one since a fortnight ago), Coalition 29% (down three), Greens 12% (steady), One Nation 4% (steady), United Australia Party 3% (steady) others 9% (up two) and 7% undecided (down one).
The poll offers two interpretations of two-party preferred, one of which asks respondents who support minor parties or independents to either state a preference between the Coalition and Labor or remain uncommitted, which has Labor on 50% and the Coalition on 35%, with the remaining 15% being those uncommitted on either the primary vote or the preferences question. The other allocates distributes minor party and independent preferences as per the 2019 election result, which has Labor on 52% and the Coalition on 40% with 8% identified as undecided. The accompanying report notes this translates into a 57-43 lead for Labor if the undecided are excluded.
The poll also finds 33% rate the global economy the factor most responsible for last week’s increase in interest rates, with the government on 16%, the pandemic on 17%, the Reserve Bank on 16% and the war in Ukraine on 7%. Personal ratings find Scott Morrison down two on approval to 32% and up three on disapproval to 51%, with Anthony Albanese down one to 30% and up one to 36%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister widens from 40-38 to 41-36. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 2311.
”#Ipsos Poll Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 29 (-3) ALP 35 (+1) GRN 12 (0) ON 4 (0) UAP 3 (0) Others 10 (+2) Don’t know 7 (-1) #ausvotes
I calculate Labor 2PP as 0 + 35 + 10 + 1.5 + 1 + 5 + 3.5 = 56.
Margin of error (sample size 2311) ~ 2%
As I said months ago, as a lifelong ALP member/supporter/operative, this is a comfortable 78-82 win. The bedwetters, agnostics, chumps who waivered – you all know you are – explain it at your next branch meeting…
It’s a fair point you make CU, consumption of media has certainly disaggregated and that’s likely to continue. I just want an even playing field in all respects and the end of the rabid beying media packs
Granny Anny says:
Sunday, May 8, 2022 at 7:08 pm
How much will Pauleeeen cream off the AEC to supplement her retirement fund this time?
Glad to see that Davis Rowe sees Australian journalists as a flock of chooks
Assuming Newspoll is 53-47 or 54-46 or 55-45, how do the Murdoch idiots and their hangers on at the ABC and commercial TV approach the next week – a full on assault on Albanese and attempt to save their man Scomo, or a reluctant acceptance of the way the tide seems to be turning?
sprocket_ @ #141 Sunday, May 8th, 2022 – 5:27 pm
If you reallocate the don’t knows proportionally to the results of this poll I get LNP 31.2 ALP 38.7 GRN 12.9 ON 3.2 Others 10.8
Save the furniture or go down with the ship?
Scepticsays:
Sunday, May 8, 2022 at 7:41 pm
Glad to see that Davis Rowe sees Australian journalists as a flock of chooks
—————————–
Anyone who has had chooks and grown fond of them would be insulted.
I think if it is 55-45 in Newspoll, the media will lose interest in the election. If it is 57-43 in the Lib biased Ipsos, then Morgan must be off the scale.
mj @ #157 Sunday, May 8th, 2022 – 5:42 pm
Correction – left out UAP
If you reallocate the don’t knows proportionally to the results of this poll I get LNP 31.2 ALP 38.7 GRN 12.9 ON 4.3 UAP 3.2 Others 10.8
According to Markson, the Liberal Party internal polling is totally opposite to the current public polling and shows their vote holding up.
@SA … the rule of openly discussing internals applies, even to the Libs.
mj
If you reallocate the don’t knows proportionally to the results of this poll I get LNP 31.2 ALP 38.7 GRN 12.9 ON 3.2 Others 10.8
————————-
If that happens the LNP lose about a quarter of their primary vote.
SA Bludger says:
Sunday, May 8, 2022 at 7:47 pm
According to Markson, the Liberal Party internal polling is totally opposite to the current public polling and shows their vote holding up.
Is this the same polling organisation that Putin uses?
Confessions @ #38 Sunday, May 8th, 2022 – 4:44 pm
These numbers suggest that most of the new ones are former Coalition voters.
According to Markson, the Liberal Party internal polling is totally opposite to the current public polling and shows their vote holding up.
________
Well they WOULD say that!
John Howard says ‘left wing inner-city bomb thrower’
I always thought John Howard said something at the last election that the Labor party wanted to divide Australians by where they lived and by calling people at The big end of town was dividing Australians and the Australian people wouldn’t put up with it!
How is attacking people who live in the inner city uniting Australia/Australians?
I mean what’s wrong with people who choose to live in the inner city areas? (not that I live in the inner city but thats not the point)
Is this not hypocrisy on Howards part?
Could these figures if accurate dash the LNP’s hopes in Gilmore and bring Labor back into the game as competitive in seats like Lindsay?
Poor Cameron says:
Sunday, May 8, 2022 at 7:54 pm
John Howard says ‘left wing inner-city bomb thrower’
I always thought John Howard said something at the last election that the Labor party wanted to divide Australians by where they lived and by calling people at The big end of town was dividing Australians and the Australian people wouldn’t put up with it!
How is attacking people who live in the inner city uniting Australia/Australians?
I mean what’s wrong with people who choose to live in the inner city areas? (not that I live in the inner city but thats not the point)
Is this not hypocrisy on Howards part?
中华人民共和国
Has little Johnny moved to the bush?
Mark Kenny
@markgkenny
Sub-intellectual nation. With some exceptions, media performance in this election has been superficial & its parroting against new entrants to the democratic process, facile, and hysterical. Counter-democratic.
Looking at these figures, it appears that the reason that more people are undecided now than at the start of the Election is that Liberal voters are now thinking of going Teal. What a brilliant campaign Scott and the Libs
Sharri Markson is so biased against Labor and such a mouthpiece for Murdoch that her comments sound ridiculous and more like the reality denying Saddam Husseins spokesman Comical Ali than any sensible journalist.
On the Lib campaign being flat.
Reactionaries are lost without something to react against.
Labor has done well to give them so little to work with.
They’re probably feeding the “right” figures to Morrison, to keep him believing that he’s winning.
I note that here in daH Cave, i have been getting ALP adds on my Facebook that are Budget announcements (the good ones ) from Marc McGowan about how he is going to spend some of his budget surplus (you know, the one you get when the Lib / Nats are always such better economic managers ) when the W.A. budget comes down on May 12…….which happens to be before the election wot.
Tactically interesting how it will spin.
And how will Morriscum try and get some of the reflected glow of his good mate Mark??
Wonder if court expenses fighting Morriscums good mate Clive will get a mention ??
Albo just needs to do the “Yeah, sensible Budget in W.A. that looks after people…. that’s what Labor does. “
What time does the Uhlmann-led partisan ambush of Albanese start tonight?
SA Bludger
2045 CST
Not sure who Sharri talks to because i talk to Liberals and their mood has been bleak for months.
Strange – Sportsbet just moved from $1.33 / $3.30 to $1.34/ $3.20.
Hmmm maybe they know newspoll result.
The state by state polling will be exceptionally interesting when it is released. The swings, I presume, are lumpy. Queensland remains deeply perplexing. There are seats theoretically in play (like Dickson) that noone is talking about, which is weird.
Hard for Morrison to recover from here. Looking good for a positive change of government. Albo is not Shorten; Albo is a an entirely decent human being. It absolutely cannot be presumed that undecideds will go for Morrison like in 2019.
My punt is 54/46 in the Newspoll.
Mexicanbeemer says:
Sunday, May 8, 2022 at 8:02 pm
Not sure who Sharri talks to because i talk to Liberals and their mood has been bleak for months.
中华人民共和国
Sir Robert Menzies
This is the first election campaign I can recall where the government doesn’t have a prominent free-to-air ad that features the Prime Minister talking up their achievements.
True Believer – nah, just some punters getting on $3.30 in a two horse race.
Hey Upnorth,
Does Ipsos match the confidential internal ALP polling your being briefed on?
Is this not hypocrisy on Howards part?
It’s only Class War if you’re kicking up.
SA Bludger says:
Sunday, May 8, 2022 at 8:06 pm
This is the first election campaign I can recall where the government doesn’t have a prominent free-to-air ad that features the Prime Minister talking up their achievements.
———————
Its been strange but Morrison has never owned the government’s response to the pandemic and has no vision for the future.
”
C@tmommasays:
Sunday, May 8, 2022 at 6:19 pm
Kevin07 getting fired up:
Kevin Rudd
@MrKRudd
·
2h
So let’s get this straight. The Murdoch monopoly has an indignant sook whenever Turnbull or I engage in political debate, but it’s fine and dandy for Howard to get a front page, and coverage in all of Murdoch’s largest Sunday papers in Australia, to attack Albo & independents.
Murdoch’s CEO in Australia, Michael Miller, assured us their editors would not play favourites this election…In the spirit of fair & balanced journalism, how about I send your editors a statement for next Sunday, outlining my evaluation of Morrison’s corrupt, profligate govt?
As for Howard’s integrity, a man who still opposes the Apology to Indigenous Australians, misled Australians on the Iraq War & tried to take a meat-axe to workers’ rights in this country, why wouldn’t you also lie about Albo if it suited your political interests?
”
I like this from Rudd tweet:
As for Howard’s integrity, a man who still opposes the Apology to Indigenous Australians, misled Australians on the Iraq War & tried to take a meat-axe to workers’ rights in this country, why wouldn’t you also lie about Albo if it suited your political interests?
I see our humpty has arrived!
Has the Biden v trump feel about it , don’t ya reckon ?
Vary interesting discussion on Russia, propaganda, etc.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=30tPM3n6C1c&ab_channel=CrookedMedia
Being a Laborite and a Cowboy supporter I have been insulated into the Five Stages of Grief.
Denial
Anger
Bargaining
Depression
Acceptance.
But to get me through I have added another. —— Fantasy. —–
It is working with the Cowboys and Labor too at this point. —- We only have two weeks to turn the Fantasy into a reality for Labor. Unfortunately, for the Cowboys I will have to wait till October.
But with a 57 –43 even if it is only Ipsos I will take it as I am a glass half full guy.
One of the things that is apparent to me is how the pandemic has hurt the Governments election campaign. The lockdowns and suspension of many community activities denied the Government members the opportunity to win some votes by showing up at community events, talking to people and not making a complete tit of themselves (or otherwise in the case of Barnaby). In a sense, the value of their goodwill is historically low, and they didn’t get the same benefit as the State Premiers from the lockdowns. This hurts the opposition somewhat as well, but not as much. I think the Government thoroughly underestimated the amount of work each member had to do in less than 6 months to catch up on what they normally get done in 3 years, and they’re going to pay a price.
But, then again, what would I know?
”
sprocket_says:
Sunday, May 8, 2022 at 6:33 pm
29 primary for Liberals..
Better be a bloody good dirt file…
”
That is actually 29 primary for LNP. So deleting Nats 3% it is 26% PV for Libs
Jeez,
The new friendlyjordies really hits it out the park with an interview with KRudd.
I am very happy to donate to both Labor and FJ.
https://mobile.twitter.com/bigtruth2/status/1523243526305181701?s=21&t=YQiDAXw4_hbV-VO6-CW8rw
i am Thommo @bigtruth2
IPSOS was 57 43 today….and newspoll tonight sees a increase in ALP vote ( can’t say more)
8:08 PM · May 8, 2022
Sceptic at 7:41 pm
He remembers Joh’s chook feeding 🙂
STAR says:
Sunday, May 8, 2022 at 8:10 pm
Being a Laborite and a Cowboy supporter I have been insulated into the Five Stages of Grief.
Denial
Anger
Bargaining
Depression
Acceptance.
But to get me through I have added another. —— Fantasy. —–
It is working with the Cowboys and Labor too at this point. —- We only have two weeks to turn the Fantasy into a reality for Labor. Unfortunately, for the Cowboys I will have to wait till October.
But with a 57 –43 even if it is only Ipsos I will take it as I am a glass half full guy.
中华人民共和国
Cowboys having a top start to the season cobber.
https://youtu.be/wwdu_bs28B4
For cave dwellers in the West if you want to watch the debate live you can watch it on 9Now – coverage starts at 6:45. Might be handy for SA/NT bludgers -assuming it’s not broadcast live there either.
https://www.9now.com.au/
That @bigtruth2 account has 380 followers. Ok …