Two bits of private polling to have emerged over the past day:
• The Advertiser reports a uComms poll for the SA Forest Products Association finds Labor with a 55-45 lead in the Adelaide seat of Boothby, held by the Liberals on a margin of 1.4% and to be vacated with the retirement of Nicolle Flint. The primary votes are Liberal 32.6%, Labor 31.7%, Greens 10.5% and independent Jo Dyer 5.5% – an element of the remainder would have been undecided and posed a forced-response follow-up, for which the results are not provided. Respondent-allocated preferences among the independents and minor parties flowed over 70% to Labor. The automated phone poll was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 810.
• The Canberra Times reports a Redbridge poll of the Australian Capital Territory Senate race for Climate 200 had Labor Senator Katy Gallagher on 27% (down from 39.3% in 2019), Liberal Senator Zed Seselja on 25% (down from 32.4%), independent David Pocock on 21%, the Greens on 11% (down from 17.7%), independent Kim Rubenstein on 6% and the United Australia Party on 6% (up from 2.3%). These figures suggest Seselja would lose his seat to Pocock, although the fall in the Labor vote is enough to suggest that any combination of two out of Gallagher, Seselja and Pocock is possible. The automated phone poll was conducted on April 23 and 24 from a sample of 1064.
The Age/Herald had a report yesterday based on a combination of the last two Resolve Strategic federal polls, allowing journalist David Crowe to analyse New South Wales, Victorian and Queensland breakdowns from plausibly large sample size (though only as high as 509 in the case of Queensland). However, since breakdowns for these states are published with each monthly poll, it’s old news as far as I’m concerned.
In other electoral news, today is the day of Tasmania’s periodic Legislative Council elections, which this year encompass the Hobart seat of Elwick, which seems likely to be retained for Labor by Josh Willie; the north-eastern rural seat of McIntyre, where long-serving independent Tania Rattray might or might not be troubled by independent rival David Downie; and what is technically a by-election in Huon, covering the towns south of Hobart, resulting from the resignation of Labor-turned-independent member Bastian Seidel. The latter would seem to be a competitive race involving Labor, Liberal and three other candidates, and constitutes an electoral test of sorts for the state’s new Premier, Jeremy Rockliff. This site will feature live commentary of some description from 6pm.
Barnaby in Townsville today and two funding announcements. Me thinks Herbert may just just be in play.
The Dawn Patrol DID go up around 0830 EST! Here it is again.
_______________
Good morning Dawn Patrollers
Writing about the teal tremor, Peter Hartcher says that the prime minister is such a liability in progressive Liberal seats that he’s spending his efforts scouting to win marginal Labor seats. This really is worth reading.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/how-morrison-turns-the-blue-heartland-teal-20220505-p5aiyz.html
In a megawhinge, Pontificating Paul Kelly writes, “Deception is the key to teal independents’ quest for power.”
https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/deception-is-the-key-to-teal-independents-quest-for-power/news-story/8c71bcd5dd63d74b02cbe79580eb5c0e
Laura Tingle makes the point that amid all the shouting in the election campaign, the caring economy is stuck in a perilous limbo land.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-07/australia-hospitals-aged-care-disability-systems-election-focus/101045490
The federal Coalition’s path to victory appears to be narrowing, with some Liberals now conceding they see no way to win majority government on current internal polling, writes Karen Middleton who tells us that Liberal polling is predicting losses for Josh Frydenberg and Tim Wilson.
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2022/05/07/liberal-polling-predicts-losses-josh-frydenberg-and-tim-wilson
The gotcha question is all about reporters doing a star turn. It’s rudeness journalism, bemoans veteran journalist Malcolm Farr.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/may/06/the-gotcha-question-is-all-about-reporters-doing-a-star-turn-its-rudeness-journalism
In her weekly media round up, Amanda Mead writes, “It’s not hard to understand why Morrison declined to appear on Q+A – or to take part in an ABC-hosted election debate – when he can sail through the election by hand-picking partisan outlets such as Sky News and avoiding ABC hosts Leigh Sales and Patricia Karvelas.”
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2022/may/06/headlines-go-hardline-on-albanese-while-morrison-looks-to-the-sky
The Coalition’s relationship with News Corp and its hostility towards the national broadcaster are influencing more than just the televised leaders’ debates, writes Rick Morton.
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2022/05/07/why-scott-morrison-dodging-the-abc/165184560013839
The opposition leader rides on the reform coat tails of past Labor governments, but there is nothing in his program to tackle the scale of tasks they were willing to take on, says the editorial in the AFR.
https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/albanese-talks-big-but-thinks-too-small-20220505-p5aip1
Richard Dennis begins this argument that the days of safe Liberal seats are almost over with, “Here is one truth about this election: the Liberal Party is risking its future on a prime minister who likely doesn’t have one. After years of neglect, it should come as no surprise that many Liberal voters would be looking for an alternative. What is a surprise is that the Liberal Party machine, as distinct from the prime minister’s office, would risk seats such as Kooyong, Goldstein, North Sydney and Wentworth in order to save a prime minister who is behind in all of the published polls.”.
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/opinion/topic/2022/05/07/why-the-days-safe-liberal-seats-are-almost-over/165184560013840
Katherine Murphy has been on the campaign trail with Albanese and she provides us with a long account of the week.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/07/i-am-who-i-am-anthony-albanese-rushes-towards-his-date-with-destiny
Mattew Knott describes Morrison’s pitch as “You might not like me, but you need me”. Heady stuff!
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-pm-s-pitch-you-might-not-like-me-but-you-need-me-20220502-p5ahq2.html
George Megalogenis declares that, on Scott Morrison’s watch, Australia has lost its standing on the world stage. He says Morrison has yet to develop the statesman’s filter. He is still too quick to anger in his dealing with foreign leaders. And he can’t resist the urge to issue loyalty tests to his Labor opponents at home.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/on-scott-morrison-s-watch-australia-has-lost-standing-on-the-world-stage-20220505-p5aiyg.html
Katherine Murphy writes about the issues confronting Australia and Albanese. He gave an extensive interview to the Guardian.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/07/anthony-albanese-five-key-questions-for-the-labor-leader-ahead-of-the-2022-election
Two weeks to go, and it’s all about playing the man, writes Phil Coorey.
https://www.afr.com/politics/two-weeks-to-go-and-it-s-all-about-playing-the-man-20220505-p5aiws
See? Scott Morrison has insinuated that Anthony Albanese is using his Covid infection to excuse poor performances and suggested the Labor leader “can’t hack the campaign”. Morrison used a campaign event in Western Australia on Friday to personally target the Labor leader, brushing off suggestions his opponent’s campaigning could be impaired by his recent bout of Covid-19.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/06/scott-morrison-suggests-anthony-albanese-is-using-covid-as-an-excuse-in-response-to-brain-fog-question
In the campaign’s final weeks, the Greens are counting on surprising swings in key Brisbane seats writes Mike Seccombe.
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2022/05/07/the-adam-bandt-interview-what-the-greens-are-promising/165184560013837
Anthony Albanese has left open the possibility of changing his cabinet lineup if he beats Scott Morrison and the Coalition on 21 May, noting the mix of senior personnel will ultimately be a decision for the caucus post-election. In a wide-ranging interview with Guardian Australia on the hustings this week, the Labor leader said all of his colleagues were worthy of their current roles, “but we are certainly not getting ahead of ourselves”.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/07/anthony-albanese-open-to-cabinet-reshuffle-if-labor-wins-election
Michael Pascoe tells us that there is a very bad reason rates won’t be rising too high too soon. He says that for nine years, billions of dollars of government programs, grants and straight-out election stunts have been aimed at getting political results rather than the best return for the Commonwealth and for the taxpayers who will be footing the interest bill for decades on all that borrowed money splurged on political bribes.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/2022/05/07/michael-pascoe-rates-rises/
Nick O’Malley writes that Anthony Albanese is putting the heat back on to journalists over their gotcha questions.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/albanese-puts-heat-back-on-journalists-over-gotcha-questions-20220506-p5aj5v.html
In the body of this wide-ranging contribution from John Hewson is, “Although the government claims its recent budget is a plan for future growth, it isn’t. The recent budget is simply the largest pork barrel in our history. This will do little to sustain growth and employment. There is no national productivity strategy that would ensure growth, employment and increases in real wages. The major economic challenge that no candidate is addressing, and what will also be a global challenge, is the management of stagflation – that is, slowing growth co-incident with accelerating inflation. Similarly, no one is addressing the need for budget repair, with structural deficits stretching out as far as the eye can see. This will require whoever is in government to look to raising taxes and cutting expenditure in the latter half of this decade. Of course, Morrison is still talking irresponsibly of further tax cuts.”
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/opinion/topic/2022/05/07/reality-television-the-smart-kids/165184560013846
Our leaders are blindly dancing on the edge of calamity sternly refusing to look at the quagmire opening below them. The blindfold that Morrison has firmly tied around his own eyes, and which Albanese has failed to pull from his, is our obsession with a long term cap on tax at 23.9% of GDP – the third lowest in the OECD just after the US and Ireland, and less than half that of Europe and Scandinavia, explains Roger Beale.
https://johnmenadue.com/dancing-on-the-edge-of-calamity/
“Malcolm Turnbull and Fred Chaney misunderstand the role that “moderate Liberals” play. I believe you can achieve more from within the tent, rather than standing outside throwing stones”, writes Katie Allen in this op-ed.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/to-liberals-considering-voting-teal-don-t-cut-off-your-nose-to-spite-yourself-20220506-p5aj1y.html
Until now, the contest between Liberal MP Jason Falinski and former middle distance runner and local GP Dr Sophie Scamps for Sydney’s northern beaches seat of Mackellar has been dismissed as a case study in optimism over hard facts, but Anne Davies tells us something seems to be happening in Mackellar that is turning it into a contest to watch.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/07/mackellar-malaise-could-an-independent-gp-cause-an-upset-in-liberals-beachside-bastion
Ross Gittins says that wages have been struggling to keep up with prices for all the time this government’s been in office. There are things it could have been doing to encourage higher wages, but it’s failed to do them, and this is a legitimate criticism of Morrison’s economic management.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/australia-s-falling-real-wages-will-help-fight-inflation-20220505-p5ais1.html
Neither major political party has anything resembling a plan to balance the budget, much less pay down government debt. And that’s before even discussing their collective unwillingness to reform the economy, writes Peter van Onselen.
https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/economic-reform-gets-filed-under-too-hard/news-story/e805213d85aa9a563e6cd4bdb9d6705a
It may be the only campaign tactic they have left, and it’s a lie, but the media laps it up and Scott Morrison and Josh Frydenberg are flogging it hard. That’s the claim that the Coalition are “superior economic managers” and Labor can’t be trusted to run the economy. Alan Austin looks at International Monetary Fund data and puts the case that Labor have been far superior economic managers.
https://michaelwest.com.au/scott-and-josh-superior-economic-managers-not-according-to-the-imf/
The Age’s editorial declares that fair wage growth must be at the heart of economic recovery.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/fair-wage-growth-must-be-at-the-heart-of-economic-recovery-20220505-p5aip5.html
Jess Irvine explains how inflation, interest rates and wages are linked.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/how-are-inflation-interest-rates-and-wages-linked-20220505-p5aisp.html
Morrison is pushing a contradiction, blaming the rate rise on forces he can’t control, such as the war in Ukraine pushing up energy prices or the supply disruptions internationally due to the pandemic, and yet saying only he can keep them lower. On the contrary, as the RBA points out, he is keeping them higher, and a major contributor to inflation is the billions of dollars thrown at the economy in the March budget, writes Paul Bongiorno.
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/opinion/topic/2022/05/07/every-galah-every-pet-shop-australia/165184560013845
For almost a decade now, we have had governance unbefitting the times. When a government has governed without due regard to what is best for the nation and its people, there is only one course of action. Change it, and when you do, you change society, writes John Lord.
https://theaimn.com/when-change-seems-to-be-the-only-course-of-action/
The Coalition is guaranteeing essential services and lower tax. We can’t have both, explains Michael Keating.
https://johnmenadue.com/essential-services-lower-tax-cant-have-both/
The community movement trying to unseat Hume MP Angus Taylor has been ordered to remove election signage by local government in a move legal experts say goes against the rights of third-party campaigners. Goulburn Mulwaree Council instructed the Vote Angus Out group to remove their signage after the office of the Liberal incumbent made a complaint.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/07/council-move-against-anti-angus-taylor-signs-goes-against-third-party-rights-legal-experts-say
Global shares suffered a brutal sell-off as investors began to doubt whether leading central banks such as the US Federal Reserve and the Reserve Bank of Australia can succeed in taming inflation by raising interest rates, without causing recession, writes the AFR’s Ales Gluyas.
https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/inflation-anxiety-triggers-market-chaos-20220506-p5aj1s
Royce Millar has a long, hard look at the teals and the rise of independents.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/a-secret-party-immoral-explaining-who-the-teal-independents-really-are-20220505-p5aio4.html
In looking at Morrison’s “autocracy” remark about an ICAC, David Solomon says it is a nonsensical suggestion, that deliberately, falsely, misrepresents the power any prospective national integrity commission might have, and the way the public service does, can or even might operate. But it says a lot about the unconstrained powers that the Prime Minister considers are appropriate for him and his ministers. Indeed, about the way he and his government have sometimes acted.
https://johnmenadue.com/who-is-the-autocrat/
With its recalcitrance on climate change, an integrity commission and women’s issues, the Liberal Party is at risk of losing many of its traditional voters, says the SMH editorial which reckons the teals are a warning to Liberals not to drift further to the right.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/teals-are-a-warning-to-liberals-not-to-drift-further-to-the-right-20220506-p5aj99.html
The editorial in The Saturday Paper says, “By now it is obvious that people in detention are props to Scott Morrison. They are not human to him. They represent only voters’ fears.”
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/2022/05/07/last-refugees-the-scoundrel/165184560013842
Ben Smee explains how Clive Palmer’s deep pockets are building a yellow, slick road straight through One Nation’s heartland.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/07/how-clive-palmers-deep-pockets-are-building-a-yellow-slick-road-straight-through-one-nations-heartland
Palmer’s UAP’s promise to wipe student debt is a con, explains Tom Tanuki.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/palmers-uaps-promise-to-wipe-student-debt-is-a-con,16332
Rachel Clun writes that prices for groceries will keep rising faster than wages, with inflation now predicted to be twice as high as wages growth by the end of next year.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/wages-won-t-grow-in-real-terms-for-more-than-a-year-rba-20220505-p5aiyd.html
Federal Labor has promised to consider a crackdown on “unhealthy” products if elected, giving hope to advocates pushing for a sugar tax and putting leader Anthony Albanese at risk of a Coalition scare campaign, writes Dan Daniel. She tells us that today the Public Health Association will unveil its assessment of the three parties’ policies, grading them under a green, orange and red traffic light system.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-promises-to-consider-crackdown-on-unhealthy-products-20220503-p5ai5a.html
A key Liberal senator has renewed his call for religious freedom laws to be dealt with at the same time as protections for gay and trans students, despite Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s plan to deal with them separately. The move could ignite the same tensions that led five Liberal MPs to cross the floor to vote against the government in February, siding with Labor and crossbenchers to amend the government’s package of bills to protect all LGBTQ students, writes Lisa Visentin.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/liberal-senator-wants-lgbtq-students-protected-as-pm-promises-religious-discrimination-laws-20220505-p5aiyk.html
A long-delayed showdown over same-sex marriage threatens to “further diminish” Australia’s second-largest church and destroy its national unity, Anglican Primate Geoff Smith has warned. Jamie Waljer tells us that the day of reckoning will come next week when bishops, priests and church elders meet at the first Anglican General Synod held in five years to thrash out a response to gay marriage.
https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/delayed-gay-marriage-debate-could-split-anglican-church/news-story/5988a32fbbd9e3221250d5f7bd8d40c3
Angus Thompson writes that, after a number of questions on the issue being put to him, Scott Morrison says he doesn’t want the national debate over abortion rights occurring in the US to take place in Australia, saying it was an issue that could “deeply divide this country.”
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/morrison-doesn-t-want-divisive-abortion-rights-debate-in-australia-20220506-p5aja6.html
Having kids was the right decision for her, but Kate Halfpenny argues why she is firmly pro-choice.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/having-kids-was-the-right-decision-for-me-but-i-m-firmly-pro-choice-20220506-p5aj1z.html
Anne Summers opines that the US Republicans won’t stop their relentless campaign until abortion is banned nationwide.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/republicans-won-t-stop-relentless-campaign-until-abortion-is-banned-nationwide-20220505-p5aiym.html
In Victoria, the Opposition Leader has lashed out at colleague Bernie Finn over comments on abortion and warns the upper house MP to be a part of the Liberal team or leave the party.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/andrews-reportedly-probed-in-secret-over-ties-to-allegedly-corrupt-developer-20220506-p5aj1o.html
If the RBA relies on its worthless forecasts, prepare for a truly massive fall in house prices, writes Christopher Joye.
https://www.afr.com/wealth/personal-finance/house-prices-to-correct-up-to-25pc-20220505-p5ait4
If the polls are correct, Labor will claw back 2019’s losses and win enough seats to form government. But some seats may deliver more than one surprise, say Michael Koziol and Natassia Chrysanthos.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-sydney-seats-that-could-serve-up-a-surprise-at-this-election-20220505-p5aisv.html
Experts say hiring more paramedics and creating new beds isn’t a silver bullet to fixing deeper issue in our health systems.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/07/health-system-in-distress-how-ambulance-ramping-became-a-major-problem
According to Ronald Mizen, Morrison will commit $20m today to get tourists back on the beers. Morrison has spent a lot of time in booze establishments during the campaign, has he not?
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/morrison-commits-20m-to-get-tourists-back-on-the-beers-20220506-p5aj68
Katina Curtis tells us that the rate of serious incidents at day-care centres has jumped during the pandemic while regulators did fewer quality assessments.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/never-happen-again-states-told-to-fix-childcare-transport-rules-20220506-p5aj6b.html
Sumeyya Ilanbey writes that Daniel Andrews has reportedly been secretly questioned by anti-corruption investigators over his association with an allegedly corrupt property developer. Yesterday The Australian revealed Andrews was probed in private hearings as part of Operation Sandon, a long-running Independent Broad-based Anti-corruption Commission investigation of alleged corruption in the City of Casey, in Melbourne’s south-east.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/andrews-reportedly-probed-in-secret-over-ties-to-allegedly-corrupt-developer-20220506-p5aj1o.html
The NSW government has given a controversial rail corporation, which is supposed to turn a profit by charging large fees to Sydney Trains and NSW Trains, another two-year break from paying state taxes. The details of the exemption granted to the Transport Asset Holding Entity are detailed in an Audit Office report released yesterday into the state’s transport agencies, which included a raft of recommendations. Another instance of putting out the rubbish on a Friday afternoon.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/controversial-rail-corporation-granted-another-two-year-tax-break-20220506-p5aj26.html
Colin Kruger reports that the Star Casino operator has announced the resignations of its chief financial officer, chief casino officer and its chief legal and risk officer. That’s quite a clean out!
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/executive-exodus-continues-at-star-casino-20220506-p5ajad.html
The Labor Party’s proposal that Australia should offer to host a United Nations climate conference with the Pacific would only be welcomed if it demonstrated a clear commitment to addressing climate change, former Kiribati president Anote Tong says.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/is-the-pacific-ready-for-an-australian-return-to-climate-diplomacy-20220505-p5aix4.html
Looking at recent weeks of the Ben Roberts-Smith trial, Harriett Alexander writes that, In a case that is so much based around the interpretation of facts, it has always been open to the court to determine whose version of reality was accurate and whose was a warped reflection.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/truth-facts-and-warped-reflections-in-the-ben-roberts-smith-case-20220506-p5aj4r.html
Nick Toscano writes that tech billionaire Mike Cannon-Brookes’ intervention has added to significant questions about AGL’s role in the clean-energy transition and its blueprint for the future.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/power-struggle-the-fight-for-the-soul-of-australia-s-largest-polluter-20220506-p5aj62.html
The Australian Taxation Office is cracking down on an $850 million fraud being spruiked on social media that involves people inventing fake businesses to claim GST refunds. Operation Protego is probing potentially fraudulent payments made to about 40,000 Australians who have each claimed on average around $20,000. The ATO is working with banks, the Reserve Bank and an AUSTRAC-led coalition of law enforcement and financial industry players to clamp down on the scam.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/2022/05/06/ato-probing-40000-aussies-tax-fraud/
The planned split of AGL Energy that billionaire Mike Cannon-Brookes is trying to foil will cost $260m upfront and $35m in extra costs per year for the demerged entities, documents from the energy giant show.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/06/agl-reveals-demerger-would-cost-260m-as-mike-cannon-brooks-tries-to-block-plan
Jordan Baker reports that alumni and parents from Anglican schools fear church guidelines saying students struggling with their gender identity should honour the maleness or femaleness of their god-given body are a further sign of the diocese imposing its social conservatism on the classrooms.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/backlash-as-anglican-school-parents-fear-conservatism-in-classrooms-20220506-p5aj7r.html
COVID’s death toll has soared since the election was called, but nobody is talking about it, writes John Elder.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/life/wellbeing/2022/05/06/covid-deaths-2022/?breaking_live_scroll=1
One of Australia’s ageing Collins class submarines flooded as it was about to embark on a deep dive, sparking fears among crew it could sink during drills off the West Australian coast last year. Andrew Tillett reports that quick thinking by HMAS Sheean’s crew averted disaster, with the submarine conducting an emergency surfacing after a back-up system designed to stop water flooding into the boat initially failed to work.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/crew-feared-ageing-australian-submarine-would-sink-in-deep-sea-mishap-20220506-p5aj3j
Labour leader Keir Starmer would likely become prime minister in an unstable hung parliament, if Britain’s confusing array of local and regional election results were replicated at a national poll next year or in 2024.
https://www.afr.com/world/europe/britain-s-local-elections-point-to-hung-parliament-with-labour-pm-20220507-p5ajbs
Ending Roe v Wade could badly backfire on Republicans during elections this year, opines Lloyd Green.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/may/06/republicans-midterm-elections-roe-v-wade-senate-house
Cartoon Corner
David Pope – spot on, as usual!
David Rowe
Alan Moir
Matt Golding
Jon Kudelka
Jim Pavlidis
Fiona Katauskas
Mark David
Peter Broelman
Matt Davidson
Andrew Dyson
John Shakespeare
Joe Benke
Richard Giliberto
Mark Knight
Leak
From the US
I’m hearing chatter that Maranoa and Groom are in play too and the LNP are moving resources in to shore it up.
BK’s post got caught in my moderation filter — I’ve updated the time stamp on it so it’s here ^^^.
HH 1225hrs
Northern Territory – all time anti- bellwether record holder. From twenties to late sixties, if memory serves.
BeaglieBoy @ #261 Saturday, May 7th, 2022 – 10:38 am
With the presence of the teals, he can’t even say he leads a united Party.
People see and listen to the teals and think, that’s what the Liberal Party should be like.
William, I knew BK’s post was due to some sort of constipation! Lols
William Bowe @ #303 Saturday, May 7th, 2022 – 12:00 pm
Too many references to Morrison?
Maranoa and Groom?….Methinks you are pulling our collective legs their Lars
JenAuthor @ #270 Saturday, May 7th, 2022 – 10:56 am
They did! 😆
Too many links, I imagine.
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2022/05/beautiful-losers-australias-leading.html
Beautiful Losers: Australia’s Leading Anti-Bellwether Seats
Also I will be covering Tasmanian Legislative Council elections on my site from 6 pm tonight.
Thanks BK
There’s no way lnp seats with 20-25% margins are in play – especially in qld
If that was the case then the lnp will lucky to keep 30 seats.
Here we go again
Yes the historic Adelaide tram network w as quite extensive; see this map.
The Parade was in the network. In fact, it was the highest patronage line.
Bill has COVID.
https://twitter.com/billshortenmp/status/1522751851376295937?s=21&t=khjqBuokFL6ouHFuiPDCfA
What a good article by John Hewson. The new Labor Government really should give him some important work to do. At least put him on the RBA Board.
Thanks, BK!
Granny Anny @ #298 Saturday, May 7th, 2022 – 1:46 pm
That’s an extract from John Birmingham’s post on Alien Sideboob “ Election shocker: Donald Duck pantsless shower scene scandal. I wonder if he posts as Kirdarke?
There’s got to be a meme video doing Morrison as Jack Nicholson in A Few Good Men:
“You don’t want the truth because deep down in places you don’t talk about at parties, you want me on that wall — you need me on that wall.”
I just have to work out what the question would be to substitute for “DID YOU ORDER THE CODE RED?”
‘Did you pick Deves?’
Lets hope Robertson keeps to its form as Bellweather seat and switches to the winning labor column
Think the question would be
“Did you order the cleaners?”
Can’t get the story up but the “Curious-Snail” is screaming – to anyone who will actually listen
“The state that delivered a ‘miracle’ victory for the Scott Morrison three years ago is turning on the PM, new polling shows, as former Labor leader Bill Shorten revealed he’s been hit by Covid.”
https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/national/federal-election/pms-bid-to-woo-wine-beer-events-china-red-line-fears/news-story/8e30cb192a71529d59843ef68832b9c3?amp
Wouldn’t it be interesting, if SfM got covid in the last week right before launch and then F-Berg and co had to do the work for the last week.
Interesting times ahead.
Thanks BK! An interesting read.
That story about a Collins Class sub nearly sinking last year, presumably because of a faulty valve or seal, is serious. This nonsense that we can reliably plan on all these boats being seaworthy for 40 years is going to risk RAN sailors lives. It might be true. Or we might find out the hard way it was a disastrous lie.
This is not a criticism of the Collins Class, just honest engineering. Subs wear out in service. The USA and UK build the world’s best SSNs and replace them after 30 to 35 years. Japan and Germany build the world’s best diesel subs and replace them after 20 to 25 years. Why should we kid ourselves we can safely do better? We have left it disastrously too long to replace the Collins Class.
Further, why did it take six months for this news to leak out? The sycophants in the Defence hierarchy who justify this nonsense to appease the government need to be replaced even more urgently than the subs. There is far too great a culture of coverup in Defence and the ADF, as the Brereton Inquiry showed.
BeaglieBoy @ #322 Saturday, May 7th, 2022 – 2:37 pm
Damn straight.
Some polling news as per previous:
“Polling conducted by Utting Research for the Together We Can union of environment organisations in mid-February, before the date of the election was announced, suggested a swing against the Coalition in Ryan.
The poll of 400 Ryan voters showed 37 per cent would vote for the LNP, 12 per cent down on 2019. It had Labor on 35 per cent, up from 25 per cent, and the Greens at 16 per cent, down from 20 per cent. That left Brisbane with a vulnerable margin of 4.9 per cent and Ryan with 6 per cent.
Utting calculated the two-party-preferred vote as 50.2 per cent for the LNP and 49.8 per cent for Labor. It identified “jobs and the economy” as the No.1 priority for voters in the electorate, ahead of “global warming and climate change”.
https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/drift-from-coalition-as-miracle-state-leaning-toward-albanese-victory/news-story/bdf5cbc53662f04e0df69644053be6e0
C@tmomma says:
Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 2:55 pm
BeaglieBoy @ #322 Saturday, May 7th, 2022 – 2:37 pm
Lets hope Robertson keeps to its form as Bellweather seat and switches to the winning labor column
Damn straight.
中华人民共和国
Go C@t you good thing!!
where’s your sausage upnorth?
Single seat poll with low sample. Not sure what value that should be given
@ Nath
Here you go cobber – Utting if you have been following my posts being used by the ALP.
“Polling conducted by Utting Research for the Together We Can union of environment organisations in mid-February, before the date of the election was announced, suggested a swing against the Coalition in Ryan.
The poll of 400 Ryan voters showed 37 per cent would vote for the LNP, 12 per cent down on 2019. It had Labor on 35 per cent, up from 25 per cent, and the Greens at 16 per cent, down from 20 per cent. That left Brisbane with a vulnerable margin of 4.9 per cent and Ryan with 6 per cent.”
Historyintime
“ What a good article by John Hewson. The new Labor Government really should give him some important work to do. At least put him on the RBA Board.”
Good idea. He is better qualified for the job than most of the incumbents.
BK
Monster is right. Far out.
Lars
“why bother if everything is decided by the “elite”?”
Indeed. Perhaps this is the reason for the disengagement often bemoaned here? Note, though, that I didn’t say nothing can be achieved by popular demand, just suggested that structural reform of anything is not likely to be the result of popular demand.
This is probably, in part, because the majority of the population are focussed on their immediate material needs. So, Greensborough Growler, no matter how hard those advocating for electoral reform work to build support, it pales as a concern to those more immediate needs.
Does that mean that those who have the capacity and means to do so should avoid making structural change in that regard, or any other? Of course not. That’s why the process was changed to pull up the rope ladder in the face of the Druery method. There was no great clamour for change then, either (not that it was structural).
south @ #325 Saturday, May 7th, 2022 – 2:49 pm
The Hon member for Monash, connoisseur of Ivermectin Russell Broadbent might slip SfM some of his illegal supplies and before long he would be good as gold.SfM would never lie to the authorities that he had it would he.Nodding head.
Friedburger would obviously slip his whole family into the launch plus the dog of course for continuity.
Granny Anny
Hard to disagree. Murdoch is a foreigner, not an Australian, we owe him nothing and he turned traitor on us for the holy dollar.
As a foreigner he’s seeking to influence Australians. He should have no rights here whatsoever, and this includes attempting to overturn our government as he did to RGR. How would we feel/respond if other foreigners did the same?
He produces nothing of value to/for Australians except to sow lies and discord. As such, his empire should be banned from Australia or broken up to reflect appropriate foreign ownership. Our intellectual IP in terms of influence against our government and Australia should be protected against Murdoch in the same way as we would protect it against Putin. Murdoch is an ever present danger to Australia’s democracy.
Upnorth says:
Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 3:00 pm
@ Nath
Here you go cobber
_______
What about the secret sausage? From your mates at Labor HQ?
ltep says:
Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 2:58 pm
Single seat poll with low sample. Not sure what value that should be given
中华人民共和国
That’s 100% correct cobber but the Trend is your friend. Tracking and Focus groups are the real key.
Again, I think the first question each party will be asking their groups:
“Is Australia heading in the right direction?” – answer that and you are nearly half way there
Socrates:…yes give Hewson some role…..I have always liked how SA labor governments have made use of very competant people from the other side of the fence (there are so very few of them with intelligence, competance and integrity, that they need to be used and encouraged)
https://www.smh.com.au/national/to-liberals-considering-voting-teal-don-t-cut-off-your-nose-to-spite-yourself-20220506-p5aj1y.html
Katie Allen: “Almost without exception, they are aiming to replace moderate Liberals. Apparently, the argument goes that the Liberal Party can be “improved” and made “more moderate” by purging the party of moderates. It really is nonsensical. … Make no mistake, voting independent won’t mean a better Liberal Party. It’ll mean the opposite. It’ll mean a weaker Liberal Party, with moderate voices reduced in number.”
I don’t know what bodes worse for the supposed liberal moderates, that they’ve all decided to run on this individually or that this is now the received party line for them. Very humiliating either way.
BeaglieBoy says:
Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 3:04 pm
Socrates:…yes give Hewson some role…..I have always liked how SA labor governments have made use of very competant people from the other side of the fence (there are so very few of them with intelligence, competance and integrity, that they need to be used and encouraged)
______________
Perhaps offer Latham an ambassadorship?
nath says:
Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 3:03 pm
Upnorth says:
Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 3:00 pm
@ Nath
Here you go cobber
_______
What about the secret sausage? From your mates at Labor HQ?
中华人民共和国
That’s a special order cobber and as “rare as hens teeth” but I always share my sausage here when I get it.
Lars and your good self may question its’ validity, but mate I really don’t give a fuck!
What’s Krogs saying?
Murdoch should be kicked out of australia – people without australian citizenship should have no say in how our country is run.
He pays no tax here and is a parasite.
Good idea: Latham, Australian Ambassador to St Helena….permanently
Upnorth says:
Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 3:07 pm
What’s Krogs saying?
____________
Not much. He’s taken up constructing dioramas……
south @ #325 Saturday, May 7th, 2022 – 2:49 pm
God no! They might win!
BeaglieBoy @ #339 Saturday, May 7th, 2022 – 3:04 pm
I have a lot of respect for the good Doctor which grows by the year.
Another survivor of the Gotcha.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WndWM71-jSQ
nath says:
Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 3:09 pm
Upnorth says:
Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 3:07 pm
What’s Krogs saying?
____________
Not much. He’s taken up constructing dioramas……
中华人民共和国
Well someone has to do it
If Katie Allen would give us dirt that would cause people like Dutton and Hawke and Morrison to lose their seats instead I’m willing to do a deal to save some Teal Seat Liberals in exchange. (but not to save Wilson or Frydenberg)
Otherwise the path to removing the Liberal right from power runs through the seats where they are vulnerable, not where they are strong, that’s how the system works.
The Liberal “moderates” have achieved nothing for 9 years but to be fig leaves for the hard right and it’s probably insulting and counter-productive for them to plead like this when their party has come to this campaign hell bent on highlighting that they have no pull; Morrison is so uninterested in helping them he runs Deves as a captain’s pick, makes insulting comments about ICAC and goes around talking up that he’s going to bring back his religious bigotry bill if he gets the chance. Results talk, and bullshit walks.
Arky,
It wouldn’t be a stretch to say that Katie Allan is afraid of the Menacing Wallpaper.