Results summary
In England, while the Tories got a bloody nose, Labour didn’t benefit very much. The Tories lost a net 338 councillors, but Labour gained just 22, with the Lib Dems gaining 192, the Greens 63 and the far-left Aspire 23, all in Tower Hamlets. Labour gained control of a net four councils, with the Tories down ten and Lib Dems up three.
The last time these seats were up was in 2018, when Labour had a decent year. This year the BBC’s Projected National Share (PNS), that calculates as if the whole country held council elections, gave Labour a 35-30 lead over the Tories with 19% Lib Dems. In 2018, Labour and the Tories were tied at 35% each, while at the 2021 council elections the Tories led Labour by 36-29.
In Scotland and Wales, the last council elections were in 2017, which was an utter disaster for Labour in which they lost the PNS by 38-27. Yet five weeks later, the Tories lost their majority at the 2017 general election. So Labour made many gains at the Tories’ expense in both Scotland and Wales.
Labour’s five-point win is roughly what the current UK national polls are saying. In my opinion, cost of living and inflation explain the poor result for the Tories better than Partygate.
The Northern Ireland election was historic with the Irish nationalist Sinn Fein becoming the first nationalist party to win a plurality of both votes and seats since NI assembly elections started being held in 1998. But the unaligned Alliance was easily the biggest winner, gaining nine seats.
Live Commentary
10:35am Monday Labour lost control of Croydon council, the last to declare, but the Tories didn’t gain it owing to gains for the Greens and Lib Dems. There will be a directly elected Tory mayor. That reduces Labour’s English councillor gains to just 22, while the Tories are down 338, the Lib Dems up 192 and Greens up 63.
10:33am With all 90 Northern Ireland seats declared, results are 27 Sinn Fein (steady since 2017), 25 DUP (down three), 17 Alliance (up nine), nine UUP (down one), eight SDLP (down four) and four Others (steady). An Irish party is the largest for the first time in NI assembly elections.
7:21am In England, the far-left Aspire has GAINED Tower Hamlets from Labour by a 24-19 majority, with Labour losing 23 seats. Aspire won the mayor by 55-45 over Labour. Still no council results from Croydon, where the Tories narrowly gained the mayor from Labour.
7:14am Sunday With 88 of 90 seats from Northern Ireland, Sinn Fein has 27 (steady since 2017), the DUP 24 (down three), Alliance 17 (up nine), the UUP nine (down one), the SDLP seven (down four), independents two (steady), the TUV one (steady), People before Profit one (steady) and the Greens zero (down two). So the 5.1% increase in the TUV vote to 7.6% hasn’t resulted in an increase in seats.
9:48pm Painfully slow in NI. Logging off now, and will see what happens tomorrow morning!
8:17pm With 50 of 90 seats declared in Northern Ireland, Alliance has made three gains, one from UUP and one from SDLP. Still no losses recorded for the DUP yet.
5:53pm I’m expecting more results tonight from Northern Ireland, where so far only 47 of the 90 seats have been declared. I’m also expecting the final two councils – Croydon and Tower Hamlets, both in London. The Tories GAINED the Croydon mayor from Labour, and Labour lost the Tower Hamlets mayor to a far-left party, so these are likely to reduce Labour’s England gains from the current 52.
7:53am The large losses for the Tories are explained by Labour winning the PNS by 35-30. That’s the biggest winning margin for Labour since 2012.
7:50am After 144 of 146 English councils, Labour has 2,212 councillors (up 52 since 2018), the Tories 1,041 (down 341), the Lib Dems 711 (up 191) and the Greens 113 (up 60). Labour has control of 65 councils (up five), the Tories 35 (down ten), the Lib Dems 16 (up three) and no overall control 28 (up two).
7:37am After 21 of 22 councils in Wales, Labour has 522 councillors (up 65 since 2017), Plaid Cymru 199 (down nine), the Tories 110 (down 82) and Lib Dems 69 (up 11). Labour controls eight councils (up one), Plaid four (up three), the Tories zero (down one) and no overall control nine (down one).
7:28am With all councils declared in Scotland, the SNP won 453 councillors (up 22 since 2017), Labour 282 (up 20), the Tories 214 (down 63), the Lib Dems 87 (up 20) and the Greens 35 (up 16).
7:22am Of the 34 of 90 seats so far declared, none have changed hands, but Sinn Fein should win a plurality of seats from a 7.7% point lead over the DUP.
7:18am Saturday Sinn Fein has topped the Northern Ireland first preference vote with 29.0% (up 1.1% since 2017), followed by the DUP on 21.3% (down 6.7%), the Alliance on 13.5% (up 4.5%), the Ulster Unionists (UUP) on 11.2% (down 1.7%), the Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) on 9.1% (down 2.9%) and the Traditional Unionists (TUV) on 7.6% (up 5.1%). The UUP is more moderate than the DUP while the TUV is more pro-union. Alliance is unaligned, while SDLP is Irish.
11:30pm The BBC’s Projected National Share (PNS) is out. Labour won by 35-30 over the Tories with 19% Lib Dems. That five-point lead roughly matches current national polls. In 2018, the last time these English seats were contested, PNS was tied at 35-35 each. In 2021, the Tories won by a 36-29 margin.
11:20pm Some very bad political news for Labour and Keir Starmer. Durham police will reinvestigate an incident involving Starmer called “Beergate”. They originally decided not to fine him, but if he does get fined it will completely undermine Labour’s attacks on Boris Johnson over Partygate.
10:15pm After 92 of 146 English councils, it’s 1,316 Labour (up 39), 627 Tory (down 154), 310 Lib Dem (up 70) and 51 Greens (up 26). Labour has control of 42 councils (up four), the Tories 24 (down ten), the Lib Dems four (up one) and no overall control 22 (up five).
10:11pm No Northern Ireland or Wales results yet. In Scotland, it’s so far 124 SNP (up three), 77 Labour (up nine), 58 Tory (down 18), 20 Lib Dems (up seven) and 10 Greens (up six). Remember that whereas England is measured against 2018, when Labour had a decent year, Scotland is against a woeful Labour performance in 2017.
4:57pm Outside of London, it’s not looking so rosy for Labour. But all London boroughs are up for election this year, so London makes up a large proportion of total councillors up.
4:46pm Labour’s gain of Westminster could portend similar things at our federal election in wealthy inner city electorates. If you’ve played Monopoly, the most prized estates are Park Lane and Mayfair, and both are in Westminster!
4:05pm It’s been confirmed that Labour has GAINED both Westminster and Barnet from the Tories. It’s that first time the Tories have not won Westminster since its creation in 1964.
2:05pm After 61 of 146 English councils, Labour has 867 councillors (up 19), the Tories 409 (down 87), the Lib Dems 159 (up 41) and the Greens 30 (up 20). Labour has control of 27 councils (up one), the Tories 17 (down four), the Lib Dems two (up one) and no overall control 15 (up two).
1:55pm Labour GAINS Wandsworth from the Tories, who are also expected to lose control of Barnet and Westminster, all these are in London. If my recent article about how Australia’s big cities could help Labor at our federal election is correct, it would explain the Tories’ London losses. Labour is also expected to gain Southampton from the Tories.
12:25pm The Lib Dems have GAINED Kingston-upon-Hull from Labour, the first council to change parties.
11:53am When Scotland and Wales come in, Labour should make many gains as these were last contested in 2017, a horrible year for Labour. Yet five weeks after those dismal council results for Labour, the Tories lost their majority at the 2017 general election.
11:44am With 38 of 146 English councils declared, Labour has 351 councillors (down five), the Tories 199 (down 37), the Lib Dems 89 (up 22) and the Greens 17 (up 13). Still no changes in control.
11:39am We’ll only get English council results this morning and early afternoon. Scottish and Welsh councils and the Northern Ireland assembly count will start tonight AEST.
11:35am Polling expert John Curtice says that in key wards counted so far, Labour is down one from 2018, the last time these seats were contested, the Tories down three and the Lib Dems down four. Compared with 2021, Labour is up four, the Tories down six and the Lib Dems up three.
11:17am Friday Sorry about the late start; I go to gym on Friday morning. Anyway the BBC’s council scorecard has Labour on 244 councillors (down nine), the Tories on 160 (down 21), the Lib Dems 63 (up 14) and the Greens 16 (up 12). That’s with 27 of 146 councils declared. No changes in council control so far, with the Tories controlling 12, Labour 8 and 7 with no overall control.
Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is an honorary associate at the University of Melbourne. His work on electoral matters for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.
Polls for today’s UK local and Northern Ireland assembly elections close at 7am Friday AEST. I previewed these elections here. UK national polls currently have Labour leading the Conservatives by about six points.
In Northern Ireland the Irish nationalist Sinn Féin leads with about 26%, followed by the Democratic Unionists on 19%, the unaligned Alliance on 16% and the Ulster Unionists on 13%. NI has 18 five-member electorates for a total 90 seats elected by the Hare-Clark system.
The Conservative MP for Tiverton and Honiton resigned last week after being caught watching porn in parliament, so by-elections will be needed in T&H and Wakefield, where the Conservative MP resigned after being convicted of child sexual assault. While Wakefield was Labour-held from 1932 to 2019, T&H has been Conservative since its creation in 1997. The Conservatives won it in 2019 by 60.2-19.5 over Labour with 14.8% Liberal Democrats.
US: New York state courts reject Democratic gerrymander
In New York Democrats control the governor and legislature. They had gerrymandered NY’s 26 Congressional Districts in an attempt to obtain a 22-4 Democratic split. But NY’s highest court rejected this gerrymander, even though all judges were appointed by Democratic governors. A remedial map must be drawn by May 20 with the assistance of a neutral expert. Democrats will lose seats from their gerrymander.
With a Republican gerrymander approved in Florida (subject to court challenges), and the NY Democratic gerrymander rejected, Democrats are down to a net seven-seat gain on the FiveThirtyEight tracker, with Republicans up one and competitive down seven.
On Monday, Politico revealed a draft majority decision of the US Supreme Court to strike down federal abortion rights, so that each state would set their own abortion rules. This shows the importance of Donald Trump choosing three Supreme Court judges to make the Court 6-3 right, including the right-wing replacement for left-wing icon Ruth Bader Ginsburg after Ginsburg’s death shortly before the 2020 election.
Joe Biden’s ratings in the FiveThirtyEight aggregate are currently 52.5% disapprove, 42.3% approve (net -10.2). The US economy surprisingly contracted 1.4% in the March quarter annualised (0.35% in Australia’s quarter on quarter terms).
Left wins in Slovenia
At the April 24 Slovenian election, a newly formed green party won 41 of the 90 seats, defeating a right-wing populist government. The Greens can reach the 46 required for a majority with one of two other left-wing parties. Several parties’ vote shares were below the 4% threshold needed to win seats.
Fingers crossed it’s goodnight Irene for the DUP!
Although it’s not one that makes too many headlines, the result from Slovenia is quite a flip.
The previous guy was a Trump-lovin’ right winger, not too far off Orbán etc.
Great. Looking forward to it. Special thanks to Adrian.
The Irish tricolour will wave with extra pride at Celtic Park when the Hoops all but secure the Scottish Premiership title against Hearts this weekend under our very own Ange Postecoglou.
Perhaps the bankrupt DUP can look to Sevco to save them from oblivion.
Beware broken Buckfast bottles in the east end of Belfast.
Hail Hail Celtic
Glory to Sinn Féin
Ireland under one flag
My old boss and closest collaborator is good mates with the new Slovenian PM-elect, Robert Golob. Sent him a congratulatory text on winning, got a phone call back. His take is that Golob is an exceptional human being.
Also, GS is less a green party and more a social democratic party with environmental goals.
An Irish mate told me of a Catholic village that lacked running water. Paisley promised he would fix things. He did – and got the vote from that village ever after.
Polls have closed in NI. So long to wait.
Labour hold Sunderland Council
Widely tipped to fall this time – Labour lost 10 seats in 2019 and 9 in the 2021 cycle
They have won a number of wards they lost in 2021 and increased their majority v. 2021 in others. One loss to the Lib Dems so far
Where is Adrian Beaumont not reporting?
Note that counting in Northern Ireland does not begin until 5PM eastern Australian time. Hopefully Rangers amazing win this morning is a good omen for things to come. Toorak Toff thanks for sharing that Ian Paisley story.
Toorak Toff
– an interesting story that breaks many stereotypes; not the least that Paisley did something useful other than play the Orange card in the 13 months he was in power
Matt 31
I commented earlier that the introduction of internment in 1971 was among the worst decisions with the most long term consequences of any government that professed to be democratic.
Thoughts from the unionist side?
Interesting result from Dudley in the Red Wall (West Midlands, just west of Birmingham)
Halesowen North (Dudley) election result: (Changes on 2018)
Labour GAIN from Conservative.
Lab: 57.1% (+18.9)
Con: 38.0% (-5.0)
LDem: 4.8% (+2.2)
No UKIP (-16.2) as prev.
The Tories won this ward by 12 points last year
VERY early figures these only 600 seats declared, hardly any London results here. England only
BBC KEY WARD ANALYSIS
Compared to 2018
Conservatives: -3 (points)
Labour: -1
Lib Dems: +4
Compared to 2021
Conservatives: -6
Labour: +4
Lib Dems: +3
So Lab doing a bit worse than 2018 (pre red wall collapse), quite a bit better than 2021, Cons doing worse than both years
Tories can lose about 500 council seats as per Daily Mail
https://www-dailymail-co-uk.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/live/article-10786941/amp/LOCAL-ELECTIONS-LIVE-Tories-lose-Wandsworth-Westminster-Boris-faces-Partygate-test.html?amp_gsa=1&_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQKKAFQArABIIACAw%3D%3D#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=16518000708899&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&share=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailymail.co.uk%2Fnews%2Flive%2Farticle-10786941%2FLOCAL-ELECTIONS-LIVE-Tories-lose-Wandsworth-Westminster-Boris-faces-Partygate-test.html
As per BBC election map, currently Labour are winning in North and Tories are winning in South as expected.
Probably shouldn’t be surprised. Tories are getting a well deserved kicking, but Labour are absolutely incapable of finding an advantage in it. Lib Dems + Greens have gained more than twice the seats Labor have
Labour win newly formed unitary Cumberland council (covers Carlisle, Copeland and Workington Red Wall parliamentary seats – all currently held by the Conservatives)
Tom Sheldrick
@TomSheldrickITV
Final results from Cumberland
A quite incredible ‘Red Wall’ revival for Labour – a week after @Keir_Starmer
came to campaign in Carlisle & Workington
A mauling for the Conservatives
Only 54% turnout. Maybe the real winner is not nationalist or unionist but secularist?
Ray, Cumberland isn’t a gain or loss if it was newly formed. In fact, Labour have lost the first council to change hands, to the Lib Dems.
Adrian
That’s why I said ‘win’ not ‘gain’ 🙂
I reckon it should be called a gain actually Adrian
Of the three former councils that have been unified, Lab ran Copeland, the Tories Carlisle and Allerdale was hung
Now Labour run the lot 🙂
Thanks for the updates guys – muchly appreciated.
Lewis Goodall
@lewis_goodall
My understanding is the Tories are having a shocker of a night in Richmond** with Lib Dems scoring major swings and even Labour hopeful of picking up a seat or two.
**Richmond = London Borough of Richmond upon Thames
As Adrian thinks I’m barracking for Labour too much I will report that Labour are not having a good night next door to me in Sheffield .. losing seats to Lib Dems and Greens, following the pattern of the last two cycles
I’m not across the full details of the local stoush but it’s something to do with some trees that were removed in a couple of areas of the city
And just like that Sheffield Labour have won one back from each of Lib Dems and Green
It doesnt look like a great night for Labour especially – Keir Starmer really does have problems
But are Tories tracking to lose 300 seats or so (my sense of what would put Boris in danger of being ousted)… it doesnt look like it?
Lewis Goodall
@lewis_goodall
Labour now calling it and saying they’ve won Wandsworth: “Boris Johnson losing Wandsworth is monumental. This was the Tories’ jewel in the crown. Voters in Wandsworth have put their trust in the change Keir Starmer’s Labour represents.”
Expat
Far too early to say, there are 4,400 councillors being elected in England and about 1,200 each in Scotland and Wales (in 2018 it was England only)
At 0430 our time only about 1400 declared so far
Ray (UK) says:
Friday, May 6, 2022 at 1:31 pm
Expat
Far too early to say, there are 4,400 councillors being elected in England and about 1,200 each in Scotland and Wales (in 2018 it was England only)
At 0430 our time only about 1400 declared so far
中华人民共和国
I wish the AEC and State Election bodies would still be counting at 0430! Put the jug on digger
Lewis Goodall
@lewis_goodall
Confirmed: Labour GAIN Wandsworth London Borough
The first time Wandsworth has been won by Labour since 1978.
OC re internment
With the benefit of hindsight, it was an appalling policy, which achieved the very opposite of its goals. It is understandable that the British government felt it had to do something to counter the then ramping up campaign of the IRA against the British forces. Having troops as sitting ducks in a guerilla campaign is a sure way to guarantee backlash and harm your electoral prospects. They were also under pressure from Faulkner to do something to help prop up his government, who was facing increasing anger among the UUP’s base to take stronger action against the IRA, as by this time the bombing campaign was having a real impact on life in Northern Ireland. But the idea that the actions taken starting in August 1971 were going to do anything other than inflame the situation and lead to increased sectarian violence is hard to fathom. I think a better strategy at that point would have been for the British Government to come to the conclusion that the Faulkner government was unsalvageable. rather than trying to prop it up, impose direct rule and take action against paramilitaries on both sides. That is the position they eventually reached, helped of course by the collapse of Sunningdale, but I think that’s the position they should have taken in 1971.
55 seats lost by Tories so far… I’m thinking must assume what comes will need to be more anti-tory than reported so far
No counting in Nthn Ireland tonight? I share some sentiments expressed that may the DUP vote crater
Lewis Goodall
@lewis_goodall
NEW: I’m told the Conservatives have lost their majority in Westminster for the first time since the borough’s creation in 1964. If confirmed it is pretty sensational, even pricing in London’s continued shift towards Labour
Labour gain Southampton
Lewis Goodall
@lewis_goodall
So far Conservatives have lost roughly one in five seats they’ve been defending.
They’re down by about 5 points in key wards compared to 2018. Down 6 points compared to 2021.
Labour up by 4 points compared to drubbing of 2021. But down 0.5 compared to 2018
Expat Follower
As I mentioned up thread, counting in Northern Ireland will begin at 5PM Australian eastern time today.
thanks Matt – predictions?
any chance DUP can be dumped to 3rd… i think its a 10% shot but am hopeful
its interesting that of the 100 seats lost by the Tories so far, Labor has taken <30% of them
i for one am certain there is no path to a Labor majority at the next election, they would be depending on Lib Dems and the SNP to govern
I thought that Paisley guy is dead and buried if not cremated.
Labour, LibDems and Greens up…..Tories down. It’s time to start thinking about tactical voting arrangements for the general election!
Tory losses blamed on Johnson, but Johnson is likely to argue: Well, the voters have already had their catharsis, they will be back supporting us (and me) at the general election… The famous last words.
Labour gain London Borough of Barnet
Expat Follower
I’m biased but I’d say almost no chance of the DUP falling to third. If you had asked me a year ago, maybe even six months ago, I would have said there was a chance. Since then, however, the DUP finally started listening to their base and taking a harder line on the Northern Ireland protocol. Ignoring your base is a pretty bad idea under voluntary voting. So if anything, I think polls may slightly underestimate the DUP. Sinn Fein are favourites to be the largest party, but it is possible that if the DUP can get close enough on primary votes, that with a high Unionist vote transfer they could still pull this off.
Ven
Yes, Ian Paisley is dead. Ian Paisley died in 2014. His son, Ian Paisley Junior, is a member of the UK parliament.
Thanks for thoughts on internment Matt. I understand that Heath was suckered into it by Faulkner and of course the rest is history.
But what if Wilson had been active and took a political step, say direct rule, rather than just send in the military after the battle of the bog side? With no Labour Party in NI he had less political pressure than the Tories.
Ian Paisley jr now carries an Irish passport as well as his British one. He has quite a reputation for being dodgy, was suspended for a long period from the house and a recall motion against him (the 1st in UK I think) failed by a few hundred votes
Labour gain London Borough of Westminster
__________________________________________________________
I personally wouldn’t take too much heed of the early BBC etc analysis – over half of the English results still to come plus all of Scotland and Wales (and Northern Ireland)
Actually, looking at what’s still to count in England I’m not convinced Labour will have a net gain of seats
There’s a lot of Red Wall yet to count
Scotland should show gains, unsure on Wales
I think the practical importance of these elections are the pressure the Torys feel to replace Johnson (ie how many seats they lose) and of course what happens in Northern Ireland.
Tories down 132 on 1900 reported… im not clear on whether they hold enough outside of England to lose another 200?
Labor winning all over the place (some marquis victories in London notwithstanding) isnt really happening. They definitely need to cooperate with Lib Dems and SNP to effectively lose the Torys as many seats as possible in 2024… just a necessity of a FPTP system and where the days of Labor reaching 40% are probably gone for a very long time
OC
I think events were moving so quickly that Wilson felt compelled to send in the army. Violence was spreading to other parts of NI, the Irish government was calling for UN intervention and there were even calls for an invasion, (not that that was ever going to be a viable option for the Irish government). Nobody really knew how bad things could get. Certainly, again with the benefit of hindsight, Wilson could have imposed direct rule and tried to pull the RUC and the b-specials in to line that way, but had violence continued to escalate and casualties mounted, he would inevitably have taken the heat for not doing enough. Worth remembering at the time that the army was actually welcomed by some Catholic communities.