On the cards

Liberal how-to-vote cards betray few scruples about dealing with the political right, though One Nation have gone against them in at least one place where it might matter.

With the first postal votes being sent out this week, crunch time is arriving for parties to determine their how-to-vote cards, a much overrated yet not entirely insignificant feature of Australian election campaigning. First out of the block are the Liberal Party, whose how-to-votes are featured on the candidate pages of its website. These are in most cases tokenistic, since the preferences of Liberal candidates are usually not distributed, but it’s interesting to note that teal independents have been put last in Warringah, Goldstein and Kooyong, and behind Labor in North Sydney and Curtin (though not Wentworth). More consequentially, though not unpredictably, the party’s how-to-vote cards have Labor ahead of competitive Greens candidates.

The Liberal Senate tickets have the United Australia Party among the six parties recommended for numbering in every state except (wait for it) Western Australia: Palmer’s party is placed second in Victoria and Tasmania, third behind the Liberal Democrats in New South Wales and third behind One Nation in Queensland (the taboo against preferencing that party being very much a thing of the past). Pressed about the matter by The West Australian last month, Scott Morrison said: “I don’t believe there will be a deal and that is certainly not my expectation and it is certainly not my request.” However, he conceded it was a “matter for the party organisation”, and certainly didn’t stake his authority on the matter.

The party’s Queensland ticket offers a useful boost to Pauline Hanson, placing her ahead of Clive Palmer at number three and Campbell Newman at number four. Nonetheless, One Nation is directing preferences to Labor ahead of the Liberal National Party in Longman, which helped swing the result Labor’s way when the party last won the seat in 2016. Conversely, preferences are being directed to Warren Entsch in Leichhardt, contrary to suggestions he would be among a number of Liberal moderates targeted in relation for a sixth placement on the Liberals’ Tasmanian ticket. Those have turned out to be Bridget Archer in Bass, James Stewart in Sturt, Tim Wilson in Goldstein and Trent Zimmerman in North Sydney, with only the former seeming like a seat where the party is likely to attract much support. It is not clear from media reports if the teal independents are ahead of the Liberals in Goldstein and North Sydney.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

870 comments on “On the cards”

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  1. The Climate Rallies were building and then there was a global pandemic.

    Expect now for the Climate Protection Movement to build again.

    Time to go holistic and include the land, waters and ecosystems.

    Only the community can call a stop and an end to decisions that threaten the very world we only know.

    Discouraging the systemic collapse of community is not easy but key to the loss of power from the people.

    There is stoic history of resistance to remember and enable to current times.

    Sometimes you need to step back to remember how epic this all actually is.

    And step up for the risk of losing it all to oblivion.

    We can all be here for a good reason anyway if we choose to fight in our own ways, and maybe we are.

    We are in troubled times.

    It is time for hindrance to this understanding to step out of the way.

  2. I’ve said it before, and will say again, a (late) friend of mine who worked in national security described Liu as a “disaster waiting to happen”. He never gave details and he’s too dead to ask now (natural causes).

    Also fwiw in terms of the impression it gives in the Chinese community, as a native Cantonese speaker, Liu’s Mandarin is only about as good as her English (i.e. ok but a bit rough around the edges).

  3. liberals nelly lost both kooyong and higens last election liberals are hipocrits demanding tels show who they would suport as did not mind when palmer spent 80 million last election to buy the elction for morrison with anti shorten luys like death tax and liberals have moor derect links to CCP then labor last twot electins 2016 2019 lou and frydenberg ran chinease language campaigns atacking labor over imigration trans gender etc saying if you suport closer china relaetions vote liberal siman frost even got away with signs telling people they have to vote liberal and the A F p did nothing we need a integrity comition

  4. I can’t speak for other states Taylormade but in the Cave and in my experience neither ALP booth workers nor scrutineers are paid. I have met Uni Students who were paid by the Liberals to work a booth where they couldn’t get volunteers to hand out HTV’s.

    ALP volunteers do have a little drinkypoos after 6pm. Obviously the scrutineers are late.

    I am aware of one instance where the ALP were short of booth workers and they had a bunch of wharfies on standby for that situation. Before they arrived I wondered what impression they would give the punters. You would never know their back ground, they were very professional and friendly, the punters loved them.

  5. US private sector wages increase 1.3% in the March quarter

    Inflation for the month 0.9% – 0.3% at the core

    79% of S&P Companies reporting have performed at or above guidance

    Those Companies under reporting are being hammered

    Futures down about 80 Points after a 600 Point plus gain in the last session

    It does not appear that the GDP reading is impacting – noting the import data which impacts and the Dow shrugging off the data in the prior session

    The record level of imports points to Americans spending

  6. UAP candidate for Higgins was taken into police custody today, on a number of charges related to threats of violence. Presumably will be disendorsed.

    Cue conspiracy theorists raging about Vic police etc.

  7. Re Evan @10:22

    ”Liberal insider tells me Wentworth gone, not North Sydney (too many candidates)…”

    North Sydney has ten candidates this time:

    – The sitting “Liberal”, a moderate.
    – Four right-wing nut-jobs
    – A Green and a Green-ish candidate
    – Two liberals
    – a fairly strong Labor candidate who is campaigning strongly rather than running dead. She still has no chance of winning.

    The anti-“Liberal” vote is probably hopelessly split, so the “Liberal” will probably get up.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2022/guide/nsyd

  8. Ven,

    Big driver is inventories not being restocked, and US annual GDP growth is still above 3%.

    Consumption is still up, wages are up, and it seems sellers are selling everything they have, but can’t get more.

  9. Tom says:
    Friday, April 29, 2022 at 10:49 pm

    Upnorth – this about your wedding? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RLrGHt1vGiE
    =======================
    That’s the old mans wedding cobber. I posted it the other day to Dear Freya in her open invitation to visit. Sung by a National Living Treasure, Chad Morgan (who is still alive despite repeated claims of his demise). Mother Upnorth had a ripper of a time whilst the Old Man passed out on the floor.

    “Oh the joy, oh the fun once the Bobawabba Wedding had Begun”.

    Chad also co-wote “Pub with no Beer” – which of course refers to Lees’ Hotel in Ingham which is just up the road from Bobawabba. During the War, Yank troops traveling from Cairns to Townsville called into the pub which was then called the Day Dawn and drank it dry (beer was of course rationed at the time).

    “Joy Kirkpatrick recalls that ‘A Pub With No Beer’ was partially composed one night in western New South Wales, ‘somewhere near Forbes or Young’, when Gordon Parsons and Chad Morgan shared a bottle of whisky”

  10. Hi AAron
    I started commenting on this blog to try and improve my spelling and grammar. I’m still not very good but having the problem all my life I can give the following hints.

    Practice
    Slow down and re-read, preferable before posting.
    WORD now has the option of reading back what you write, that makes the mistakes so obvious.

  11. Steve777 it sounds like Deves fears transgender people possibly because she has personally had bad experiences with men and so sees it through the prism of being a potential threat to women’s rights and safety. They probably just thought she was a good enough fit for the electorate, didn’t think they were any hope anyway and didn’t do enough due diligence. I don’t really buy the theory she was inserted as part of some cunning scheme to gain elsewhere, sure some people might think she has a point but it’s not really an issue out there in swinging voterland. Both her and the LNP probably regret her candidacy but they are just trying to save face now by staying on.

  12. @Steve

    I don’t think you can realistically roll all of the “non-Liberal” vote into one bucket in this seat. The realistic main competitor to Lib Zimmerman in North Sydney is the independent Kylea Tink.

    Her profile isn’t on the level of Spender, Daniels or Mon Ryan, but she’s still a reasonable chance. A seat poll released by Climate200 a few weeks ago gave the following PVs:

    Zimmerman – 37.1%
    Tink – 19.4%
    Renshaw (Labor) – 17.3%
    Saville (Greens) – 8.7%
    Nalbandian (UAP) – 5.6%
    Others/Undecided – 12.9%

    If Tink can get ahead of the Labor candidate into second on primary vote, it’s not impossible that she could win. She should get most of the red-green prefs, and if the Teal wave is in peoples’ heads she should peel off some of Zimmerman’s PV.

  13. @ C@t hope your ok cobber. Heaps of rain down your way. Upnorth the wet has been light on. Though the old man has had 12 inches in the last two weeks which helps makes up for the quiet wet.

    I am sure you won’t get any crocs down in Robertson – however they did live as far South as the Logan River, just south of Brisbane, before and briefly after European settlement.

    In 1988 in the big flood Upnorth a “Gator” got washed into our showgrounds. The bloke that kept his horses there got one hell of a shock when he went to rescue them. They had made their way to the only bit of dry ground along with a 12 ft reptilian companion.

  14. Middle aged balding Anglo man @ 9pm

    Thank you.

    No need to apologise.

    I only hope that I can cut through all of the crud, and clear up misunderstanding.

  15. Tomsays:
    Friday, April 29, 2022 at 10:49 pm

    Upnorth – this about your wedding? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RLrGHt1vGiE

    Tom, I know that bloke from somewhere, but seeing he hasn’t invited me to the Pollbludger election night party, I might give him up.

    However, reconsidering that thought, as a true North Queenslander ex patriot and aiming to return, I might just keep that under my hat.

  16. rednk says:
    Friday, April 29, 2022 at 11:22 pm

    frednk

    Hi AAron
    I started commenting on this blog to try and improve my spelling and grammar. I’m still not very good but having the problem all my life I can give the following hints.

    Practice
    Slow down and re-read, preferable before posting.
    WORD now has the option of reading back what you write, that makes the mistakes so obvious.
    ====================
    Aaron keeep at it digger. As Frednk said you will improve and mate I love reading your posts.

    You got your heart and soul in the right place cobber so you keep it up. Lots of us have your back – that’s the Labor way.

  17. Had a quick look at Sportsbet, a few minor changes – Improving odds for Labor in Reid and Boothby and Braddon,improving odds for Monique Ryan in Kooyong although Frydenberg still favourite.

  18. Royal Commission into Robodebt!!!! ! This is the sort of stuff that makes you want to vote Labor.

    Of course the ToR need to be balanced and respect the externally imposed constraints that officials were operating on………….… um. ……..NOT.

  19. Been There says:
    Friday, April 29, 2022 at 11:33 pm

    Tomsays:
    Friday, April 29, 2022 at 10:49 pm

    Upnorth – this about your wedding? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RLrGHt1vGiE

    Tom, I know that bloke from somewhere, but seeing he hasn’t invited me to the Pollbludger election night party, I might give him up.

    However, reconsidering that thought, as a true North Queenslander ex patriot and aiming to return, I might just keep that under my hat.
    =======================
    Every cobber is invited to Upnorths’ Election Night Party! You gotta be in Bangkok and bring a bottle of Bundy!

  20. Another tip: more prospect of Mackeller going to the Teals than North Sydney, Sophie Scamps as the local GP on the Northern Beaches has huge name recognition.

  21. “Royal Commission into Robodebt!!!! ! This is the sort of stuff that makes you want to vote Labor.”

    A re-announcement, but with timing. 🙂 Endagine moment for Morriscum and Roberts on the way. 🙂

  22. A Labor Party that’s say bullshit to the neoliberalism….and to the woke identity politics……. How much would it win by?

  23. It’s. a bloodbath. Now Robertson and Reid have flipped to Labor. Stick a fork in it, it’s done. If you’ve backed Labor, get in the queue.

  24. imacca,
    It will be direct payback for pink batts, except it will be justified. I look forward to seeing Morrison and the fucking criminal public servants in the dock.

    Expat,
    Re Gladys Lui,
    I have long held the belief that to get access to TS stuff, even as a pollie you should have to submit to a positive vetting process. The Intel commitee should have to be the judge for pollies in this matter, or perhaps the speaker and ASIO boss. It’s just too big a risk for someone with ‘questions’ to be that close to information without there being checks.

  25. Upnorth

    Thanks for the invo, all’s sweet, can’t get to Bangkok at that time.

    I’ll be at the Pollbludger party though, and don’t worry, the sugar cane champagne will be there.

  26. Been There says:
    Friday, April 29, 2022 at 11:53 pm

    Upnorth

    Thanks for the invo, all’s sweet, can’t get to Bangkok at that time.

    I’ll be at the Pollbludger party though, and don’t worry, the sugar cane champagne will be there.
    =================
    Ripper Rita! Adelaide will never be the same – will be good get the mob together.

  27. True Believersays:
    Friday, April 29, 2022 at 11:47 pm
    It’s. a bloodbath. Now Robertson and Reid have flipped to Labor. Stick a fork in it, it’s done. If you’ve backed Labor, get in the queue.
    ——————————————

    I’m well and truly in the queue True Believer, and still loading up.

    Ps. Combo’s are the go, get more value ie I am taking Dragons to make the top eight into Labor election win.

    Been piling on since last November.

    Greatly confident on both!

    https://www.gambleaware.nsw.gov.au/

  28. I have an apolitical but liberal-raised friend. At the start of the last election, to my surprise, she volunteered she’d be voting for Bill Shorten based on something funny he’d done on FM radio. After the election, she said she voted Liberal as “it all got too serious”.

    So, I’ve considered her a talisman. I asked her, at the start of this election who she would vote for. Her first response was that she wasn’t going to vote for Dan Andrews. When I pointed out it was Scott Morrison that was up for election her response was “he’s a f*cking idiot”.

    Sample size of 1 and it’s not over yet, but I feel it’s indicative of how the dynamic is different this time.

  29. Work To Rule at 12.04am

    One of the valuable things about this site are the little bits of anecdotal evidence – conversations with Liberal friends, feedback from phone baking etc.

    I have a friend I’ll cal ‘faux-progressive’. She works in a (public) sector that’s been eroded by Liberal cuts.

    Weeks ago she complained about Albo’s voice. I tried pointing out he’s overcome a speech impediment. More recently she said ‘You know how I said I didn’t like him? I like him even less now…’

    I think she’s trying to vote Tory but 1) knows it contradicts he priorities in life; and 2) can’t stand Morrison either.

    I’m glad I’m not inside her head.

  30. deewhytony at 12.12am

    I think Coalition corruption and general nastiness have become major issues for this election.

    PS Wasn’t there a hydrofoil named ‘Dee Why’? I remember traveling on the hydrofoil once, it was a thrill (I grew up in the country, so it was only once.) I was sad to see them go out of service. I have sniggered to myself every time I see news stories about the replacement cats (nowhere neat as graceful) in hock for unscheduled maintenance.

  31. Snappy Tom @ #840 Saturday, April 30th, 2022 – 12:13 am

    Work To Rule at 12.04am

    One of the valuable things about this site are the little bits of anecdotal evidence – conversations with Liberal friends, feedback from phone baking etc.

    I’m glad I’m not inside her head.

    Good to remember the difference between Liberal politicians and Liberal voters. Many of the latter are decent but disengaged and suffering from cognitive disonance. If you can help them as far as teal that’s a good acheviment.

  32. I’m in Swan and have received letters from both the Liberal and Labor candidates today. Clearly trying to influence voters as postal votes start being received. The Liberals included a how to vote suggestion attached to their letter, Labor didn’t provide a how to vote.

  33. Great to see Albo marching with Stacia on Monday at the Labour Day parade in Brisbane.

    “Born from the great Shearers strike in Queensland in 1891, Labor is the only single party that can deliver a stronger on and fairer Australia. On Saturday, May 21, Vote 1 – Australian Labor Party”

    Written and Authorised by Upnorth for the Bangkok Branch of the Australian Labor Party, Bullys Bar, Bangkok.

  34. A vote for Scott Morrison is a Vote for Pauline Hanson

    “In a move that will have implications for the federal election outcome, Pauline Hanson’s One Nation will preference the LNP in every seat in Queensland, making it harder for Labor to win crucial seats needed for majority government.

    Senator Hanson will also receive the LNP’s second preference in the Senate vote, as The Courier-Mail reveals exclusive details on One Nation’s preference plans for the Sunshine State.

    Without One Nation preferences it will be extremely difficult for Labor to get up in tight contests in Longman and Leichhardt, seen as two of the seats the Opposition has the best chance of picking up in Queensland.”

    https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/national/federal-election/revealed-one-nation-and-lnp-preferences-in-qld-to-cause-labor-election-headache/news-story/7f0b02e15f916d10351a744625189971?amp

  35. Labor hasn’t built any case for election, let alone a stronger or fairer Australia . They are relying on Morrison being voted out.

  36. It’s like the bushfires have returned for Morrison.

    Spot fires are seemingly popping everywhere.

    When’s the next flight to Hawaii.

  37. Courier Mail grub sheet will be proven to be wrong come election day!

    Was going to elaborate but why bother?

    The true believers know what is going to happen!

  38. mj @ #847 Friday, April 29th, 2022 – 10:41 pm

    Labor hasn’t built any case for election, let alone a stronger or fairer Australia . They are relying on Morrison being voted out.

    I think installing a federal ICAC with teeth is more than enough reason to install Labor.

    The Coalition have trashed the integrity of the Parliament and this needs to be addressed quickly.

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