The weekly poll from Roy Morgan finds Labor’s two-party preferred lead at 55-45, in from 57-43 last week and the narrowest the heavily Labor-leaning series has had it since October. Its distinction with Newspoll is now down to preferences, since the major party primary votes are similar to those of Newspoll and indeed Resolve Strategic: 35.5% for the Coalition, up three, and 35% for Labor, down one. However, it’s already strong reading for the Greens has become even more pronounced, with a one-and-a-half point increase to 14%, while One Nation is down half a point to 4.5% and the United Australia Party is steady on 1.5%. I calculate that this would pan out to 53.7-46.3 on 2019 preference flows, but Roy Morgan’s respondent-allocated preferences have been consistently more favourable to Labor.
The state two-party breakdowns have Labor leading 53.5-46.5 in New South Wales (in from 55-45 for a swing of about 6%), 58-42 in Victoria (steady, a swing of about 5%), 51.5-48.5 in Queensland (out from 50.5-49.5, a swing of around 10%), 58-42 in South Australia (out from 53-47, a swing of about 7%) and 61-39 from the tiny sample in Tasmania. The poll unusually credits the Coalition with a lead in Western Australia of 51-49, after Labor led by fully 63.5-36.5 last time, which still amounts to a Labor swing of about 4.5%. The poll was conducted last Monday through to Sunday from a sample of 1382.
The Guardian also has the latest voting intention results from Essential Research, which may already be available in full here by the time you read this. The pollster’s “2PP+” measure, based on respondent-allocated preferences and inclusive of an undecided component, suggests the Coalition have all but closed the gap, with Labor down three to 47% and the Coalition up one to 46%. However, the primary votes are all but unchanged, with the Coalition steady on 37%, Labor down one to 35%, the Greens down one to 9%, One Nation down one to 3% and the United Australia Party up one to 4%.
Anthony Albanese is down two on approval to 41% and up five on disapproval to 41%, whereas Scott Morrison’s ratings are all but unchanged, his approval down one to 44% and disapproval steady at 48%. Morrison’s lead on preferred prime minister is little changed at 40-36, compared with 39-36 last time. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1020.
UPDATE: The poll also offers personal ratings for Adam Bandt (33% approval and 27% disapproval) and Barnaby Joyce (33% approval and 45% disapproval), and finds a 55-45 split in favour of Labor on a forced response question for party expected to win the election. A semi-regular question on “views towards re-electing the federal Coalition government” recorded little change on May, with a steady 48% rating it was “time to give someone else a go” compared with 34% who went for the alternative option that the government deserves to be re-elected, up two.
Go for $1000 Lars.
Lars -If you want to throw your money away I can think of better things to put $100 maybe a LGBTQIA support group could do with it or those working with the homeless.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers
Katherine Murphy writes about the latest Essential poll that shows Labor has lost ground over the last week.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/apr/20/guardian-essential-poll-labor-loses-ground-in-first-week-of-campaign-but-remains-ahead-of-coalition
James Robertson writes that Anthony Albanese is still paying for a momentary mistake on day one of the election campaign, with a Roy Morgan poll showing the government stealing a lead on primary votes before Labor can even change course. But on the main measure of support the ALP has maintained the bulk of its commanding two-party preferred lead, the poll, covering the opening phase of the campaign between April 11 to April 17, finds. The Coalition’s projected vote share after preferences is up 2 points after the first week but still remains on the wrong side of a commanding 55 to 45 per cent lead.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/australian-politics/2022/04/20/poll-coalition-climbs-after-labors-lost-week/
It’s not jobs we’re short of, it’s jobs that pay decent wages, declares Ross Gittins. He concludes by saying, “The other reason Morrison wants to talk about jobs, jobs, jobs is to direct our attention towards his economic successes and away from his economic failure: since a year or two before the Coalition’s election in 2013, wages have struggled to keep up with the rising cost of living.”
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/it-s-not-jobs-we-re-short-of-it-s-jobs-that-pay-decent-wages-20220419-p5aebk.html
Shaun Carney points to mounting evidence that voters have entrenched perceptions of the major parties that give one side a decisive, inbuilt advantage.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/coalition-spins-voters-entrenched-perceptions-into-political-gold-20220419-p5aece.html
This election will be won by the Coalition and Prime Minister Scott Morrison if the economic models perform as expected – and they usually do. A model refined in 2000 by then Melbourne University economists Lisa Cameron and Mark Crosby found that most federal election results in records going back to 1901 can be predicted pretty well by just two economic indicators. And they are not the indicators that might be expected, explains Peter Martin.
https://theconversation.com/this-economic-model-tipped-the-last-2-elections-and-its-now-pointing-to-a-coalition-win-181462
Paul Bongiorno believes that not being Scott Morrison is Anthony Albanese’s best shot.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2022/04/19/paul-bongiorno-scott-morrison-anthony-albanese/
The political failures of the Morrison government allied with the embrace of progressive ideology by its opponents has generated a bizarre outcome – elevation of a national anti-corruption commission as an alleged frontline election issue, pontificates Paul Kelly.
https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/public-sold-a-bill-of-goods-on-federal-icac/news-story/eb46645016f26c08b16023af63ab2cdd
John Menadue chronicles the privatisation and hollowing out of Medicare by the Morrison Government.
https://johnmenadue.com/privatisation-and-the-hollowing-out-of-medicare/
The Morrison government has slashed renewables funding and stacked Australia’s renewable energy agencies with fossil fuel executives, leaving the likes of ARENA, CEFC and Snowy Hydro controlled by potentially regressive political appointees for years, reports Callum Foote.
https://www.michaelwest.com.au/scott-morrison-angus-taylor-stack-clean-energy-agencies-with-fossil-fuel-mates/
Lee-Fui Ng explains what Labor and the Coalition are promising on an anti-corruption commission and what the government’s record is.
https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-are-labor-and-the-coalition-promising-on-an-anti-corruption-commission-and-what-is-the-governments-record-180971
If Anthony Albanese was a sharper politician, he’d be telling us his priorities were wages, wages, wages, writes Ross Gittins.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/it-s-not-jobs-we-re-short-of-it-s-jobs-that-pay-decent-wages-20220419-p5aebk.html
Little wonder independents, undecideds and minor party voters are polling almost 30%. The election campaign between the major parties has descended from media infatuation with “gotchas” to a melange of fear-mongering tactics, argues Michael West.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/it-s-not-jobs-we-re-short-of-it-s-jobs-that-pay-decent-wages-20220419-p5aebk.html
Yesterday the Coalition visited a factory owned by one of the largest fossil fuel emitters at the same time it tried to blow up Labor’s climate policy, writes Gerard Cockburn.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7705168/pm-visits-big-emitter-at-while-sledging-labors-energy-plan/?cs=14329
Angus Livingstone tells us that Labor is warning the Coalition will resurrect a proposal to water down laws that protect workers from losing money in pay negotiations as it targets Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s industrial relations plans while cost of living pressures start to bite.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-warns-coalition-will-scrap-the-better-off-overall-pay-negotiation-safeguard-20220419-p5aelu.html
Insecure work isn’t a made-up problem. It isn’t normal. And it isn’t inevitable, say Jim Stanford and Mark Dean.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/finance-news/2022/04/18/insecure-work-australia-jim-stanford/
“How much do mainstream media matter in an election campaign? (Spoiler: more than you might think)”, says Denis Muller.
https://theconversation.com/how-much-do-mainstream-media-matter-in-an-election-campaign-spoiler-more-than-you-might-think-180780
The past nine days of the electoral campaign have been interesting to say the least, and apart from a disgraceful display of partisan media publishing or broadcasting their anti-Labor and pro-Liberal rhetoric, we are now gaining a clearer picture on policy rather than media noise, writes Michael Springer.
https://theaimn.com/leopards-dont-change-their-spots-neither-does-scott-morrison/
Dave Donovan tells us why Australia must not deliver Mad (Prime) Minister Morrison his second ‘miracle’.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/why-australia-must-not-deliver-mad-prime-minister-morrison-his-second-miracle,16272
Lisa Visentin writes that yesterday, in marginal seats on opposite sides of the country, both leaders ramped up their fearmongering about their rival, as they also accused each other of running scare campaigns.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/morrison-and-albanese-run-scare-campaigns-while-accusing-the-other-of-fearmongering-20220419-p5aeet.html
Foreign Minister Marise Payne and her opposite number Penny Wong must hold a National Press Club debate. It’s equally important that Defence Minister Peter Dutton and Labor’s defence spokesman Brendan O’Connor do the same, writes Sheridan who laments that arrangements for both debates are nowhere to be seen.
https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/marise-payne-penny-wong-must-front-up-for-foreign-policy-debate/news-story/c19ca6b112e036a2d7d7ed05157e4b9c
The Coalition-News Corp attack on Labor’s energy policy is all too familiar, argues Adam Morton.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/commentisfree/2022/apr/20/coalition-news-corp-attack-on-labor-energy-policy-is-all-too-familiar
NSW private schools are massively over-funded by the Commonwealth Government. Estimates based on official figures presented to Senate Estimate show that the NSW Catholic education system and nearly 40% of Independent schools will be over-funded by $865 million by the Commonwealth Government from 2022 to 2028, explains Trevor Cubbold.
https://johnmenadue.com/trevor-cobbold-morrison-govt-to-over-fund-nsw-private-schools-by-nearly-1-billion/
The Morrison government will double the fines that can be levied against militant construction unions and individuals, drawing a sharp contrast with Labor’s promise to abolish the construction industry watchdog if elected at the May 21 poll, reports Phil Coorey.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/pm-takes-aim-at-the-cfmeu-as-ir-battle-begins-20220419-p5aeel
Anti-trans rhetoric is nothing but a shameless grab for relevance, says advocate Dale Sheridan.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/anti-trans-rhetoric-is-nothing-but-a-shameless-grab-for-relevance-20220419-p5aec9.html
Liberal MP in NSW, Felicity Wilson, says, “It’s not too late for my party to choose a better candidate for Warringah”.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/it-s-not-too-late-for-my-party-to-choose-a-better-candidate-for-warringah-20220419-p5aeco.html
And the SMH editorial doesn’t hold back in saying that Deves’ distasteful comments are a stain on the Liberal Party.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/candidate-s-distasteful-comments-are-a-stain-on-the-liberal-party-20220419-p5aeln.html
Australia could reap more than $24bn over the next four years from fossil fuel multinationals by reforming a tax on offshore gas projects that has consistently failed to deliver meaningful revenue, Parliamentary Budget Office costings show.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/apr/20/greens-plan-for-tax-overhaul-on-offshore-gas-mega-projects-could-reap-almost-90bn-in-decade
Christopher Knaus writes that aged care providers say the sector’s staffing crisis is so acute that services cannot be delivered to people relying on home care in some areas.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/apr/20/home-care-packages-delayed-as-staff-shortages-ravage-aged-care-sector
The Greens are proposing almost half-a-trillion dollars in new taxes, with party leader Adam Bandt on Wednesday to unveil a major boost to levies on oil and gas companies. Ronald Mizen writes that on a campaign trip to Western Australia, Mr Bandt will announce a revamped petroleum resource rent tax, which will add to a 40 per cent super profits tax and a wealth tax on Australia’s 122 richest people.
https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/greens-propose-almost-500b-in-new-taxes-20220418-p5ae9n
Top-end-of-town consultants and lawyers are ripping off the government on advice regarding the National Disability Insurance Scheme, contributing to the program’s ballooning costs, according to Labor.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/lawyers-consultants-leeching-off-ndis-labor-20220419-p5aeh5
Luke Henriques-Gomes reports that Labor has promised an overhaul of the national disability insurance scheme’s appeals process as Bill Shorten launched a stinging attack on the leadership of the agency’s current boss, Martin Hoffman.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/apr/19/bill-shorten-attacks-ndis-boss-as-labor-promises-30bn-overhaul
Neither the Coalition nor Labor can go on pretending that health spending is sustainable in its present form, argues Terry Barnes.
https://www.afr.com/policy/health-and-education/healthcare-promises-that-just-can-t-be-kept-20220419-p5aebc
Katherine Murphy writes that the Australian Christian Lobby is targeting moderate Liberals who crossed the floor to strengthen protections in Scott Morrison’s religious discrimination package, distributing leaflets in their electorates showing a mocked-up image of MPs driving a wrecking ball into religious schools. Precious, unrepresentative clowns!
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/apr/20/australian-christian-lobby-targets-liberal-mps-who-voted-against-religious-discrimination-laws
Surging property prices have ended the homeownership dream for two-thirds of young Australians, with the age group also naming cost of living as a top priority, writes David Crowe.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/young-voters-believe-homeownership-out-of-reach-name-cost-of-living-top-priority-20220419-p5aeih.html
With record-low interest rates and reasonably high property investment yields, negative gearing is all but impossible, explains Noel Whittaker.
https://www.smh.com.au/money/borrowing/why-negative-gearing-has-gone-the-way-of-the-dinosaur-20220419-p5aecg.html
Michaela Whitbourn writes that a friend and former comrade of war veteran Ben Roberts-Smith has denied ordering the killing of any Afghan prisoners, as he gave evidence in support of the decorated former soldier in the Federal Court.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/ben-roberts-smith-s-friend-denies-ordering-killing-of-afghan-prisoner-20220419-p5aed4.html
The federal government could be forced to buy out a Chinese part-owner of the Port of Newcastle, as NSW’s second biggest city emerges as the navy’s internal favourite as the home of a new east coast base for the planned nuclear submarine fleet, writes Andrew Tillett.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/submarine-deal-could-force-buyout-of-chinese-stake-in-port-20220419-p5aej6
According to Elizabeth Knight, AMP is looking to sell its flagship business. Over the last two decades AMP has lost more than 92 per cent of its value, much of its brand value and its prominence as a key pillar of the Australian financial system.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/shrinking-to-core-amp-looks-to-sell-its-flagship-business-20220419-p5aeek.html
Former SA deputy premier Vickie Chapman will quit politics within weeks and trigger a by-election – and the new party leader says he is sad to see such a Liberal stalwart go. There’s a few hundred thousand for a byelection down the drain. Nice work, Vickie!
https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/former-deputy-premier-vickie-chapman-to-quit-politics-force-byelection-in-her-seat-of-bragg/news-story/ba34b21e4e361284337c5e9c07fd1b31
The Age says that the Victorian government will remove many of the state’s remaining coronavirus restrictions by the weekend after the premier flagged the state appeared to have passed the peak of its latest wave of COVID-19 cases.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/covid-19-restrictions-to-be-lifted-very-very-soon-premier-predicts-20220419-p5aeem.html
A university academic whose modelling has shaped SA’s Covid response allegedly sexually assaulted a colleague who was too drunk to consent, a tribunal will hear today.
https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/education-south-australia/tertiary/university-of-adelaide-professor-joshua-ross-admits-sex-with-drunk-colleague-dr-giang-thu-nguyen-but-denies-it-was-assault/news-story/9e12f4b1db1406e5234e000b3861059c
Latika Bourke reports that Boris Johnson has been dealt a severe blow with a highly respected former chief whip telling him that he’s no longer fit to be prime minister of the United Kingdom.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/boris-johnson-no-longer-worthy-to-be-prime-minister-says-former-chief-whip-20220420-p5aenc.html
“Seriously, Tory party, there is no pooper scooper big enough to clear up Johnson’s constant mess”, exclaims Marina Hyde.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/apr/19/tory-party-boris-johnson-breaking-laws
Has Macron “done a Malinauskas”?
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/macron-s-hairy-chested-pose-is-the-latest-power-play-20220419-p5aeb4.html
Top leaders in the Oath Keepers militia group indicted on seditious conspiracy charges over the Capitol attack had contacts with the Proud Boys and a figure in the Stop the Steal movement and may also have been in touch with the Republican congressman Ronny Jackson, newly released text messages show.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/apr/19/oath-keepers-proud-boys-capitol-attack-texts
Cartoon Corner
David Pope
Peter Broelman
John Shakespeare
Simon Letch
David Rowe
Mark David
Badiucao
Glen Le Lievre
Spooner
From the US
Might be able to corner the market with $1000 ltep. Bookie will think its insider knowledge and lower the odds immediately.
Regarding the debate by sky. I think the last debate in the Queensland election organised also by the Murdochcracy had an “uncommitted”voter who directed some really hostile questions at AP. she turned out to be a member of the LNP and was handing out pamphlets for them in full LNP regalia, That’s uncommitted? I don’t know why Labor plays so nice with these t**ds. Some of the coverage the Murdochcracy is giving the ALP is just out of this world.
@ C@t (7:06 am):
“ Ross Gittins gets it:”
It’s all well and good for Ross getting to ‘get it’, and for that article to get your tick of approval on a political blog, but what is Labor doing with this information? How is it leveraging THIS into a campaign narrative?
As an MP of my acquaintance said to me a few days ago: when labor was talking about wages last month, our polling went up.
I think it’s probably too late for Labor to now run hard with something like THIS as our centrepiece (even if the campaign brains trusts had the wit or wisdom to go for it):
“Labor’s plan to tackle inflation and its consequences:
– Increased wages;
– Fast track skills training to get supply chains moving;
– Targeted skills migration – with pathways to permanent residency – to unblock economic choke points;
– A renewables revolution to drive down energy prices; and
– Childcare to help working families get ahead.”
I mean, its a shame really. ALL of the individual parts are THERE, but there is no story being told to go along with it. What’s even more annoying? It all fits into with an attack on ScoMo’s economic failures which are “driving inflation and putting upwards pressure on interest rates”.
The whole Labor campaign is piecemeal and transactional. Compare that to what Hursty and the Liberals are doing with their messaging in the space that Labor has vacated: “our economic plan is working” and “Labor cant be trusted with our economy”. Rinse and repeat, over and over. … And the polls are narrowing at EXACTLY the rate they will need to for Miracle 2.0. …
It pains me to say it, but Sean carney actually “gets it” –
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/coalition-spins-voters-entrenched-perceptions-into-political-gold-20220419-p5aece.html
@Andrew Earlwood
Why do you keep telling Poll Bludger this? What do you think/hope it will achieve?
Ben Fordham has confronted NSW Treasurer Matt Kean live on-air over his calls for under-fire Warringah Candidate Katherine Deves to be disendorsed.
Ben has been critical of the Treasurer’s comments and has recently called him out for dodging interview requests while appearing on the ABC.
Ms Deves has come under fire recently for her comments about transgender people where she compared her advocacy for women’s sports to the holocaust.
Ben Fordham has questioned the Treasurer’s intentions and demanded answers.
“When did you become so sensitive and so woke?”
Press PLAY below to hear the fiery interview
https://www.2gb.com/ben-fordhams-fiery-clash-with-nsw-treasurer-over-attempts-to-cancel-katherine-deves/
”
Lars Von Triersays:
Wednesday, April 20, 2022 at 7:28 am
Wonder how SkyNews will prep the 100 uncommitted voters for tonight’s People’s Forum and make them ready for Albo and ScoMo?
Apparently they have been sourced from some outfit called Q&A Research – their google reviews are shockers!
”
So Sky after dark is setting up the audience and the trap ?
“ Why do you keep telling Poll Bludger this? What do you think/hope it will achieve?”
Catharsis for some the frustration of seeing Labor drive itself off a class for like the 8th time in the last 9 elections.
I suppose I could ask you, why does anyone post on bludger? i guess its for the exchange of information and ideas on stuff we are passionate about. Also, it gives me a chance to hone some arguments that bi can use elsewhere. Beta testing, if you will.
Andrew is allowed to have a view on the strengths and weaknesses of the campaign.
I had forgotten what a dumbarse Ben Fordham is.
Our resident resident Health Administrator and occasional consultant to government has questions to answer
”
Private Health Insurance
We are steadily moving down the disastrous US path of PHI with its horrific costs and unfairness. Warren Buffet has described PHI in the US as the ‘tapeworm in the US health system’.
PHI is also eating away in Medicare
The threat takes many forms.
People who should know better tell us that the PHI subsidy is costing only $7 billion p.a. But they are telling us only half the story. In addition to the direct subsidy, there is another $6 to $7 billion p.a. subsidy through tax concessions to high income earners to encourage them to take out PHI. The $13 plus billion p.a. subsidy to PHI is almost twice the funding necessary to include dental care within Medicare.
The $13 billion subsidy for PHI undermines Medicare’s principles of a single funder, universality and solidarity. The PHI subsidy goes overwhelmingly to people on higher incomes. PHI enables the wealthy to jump the hospital queue regardless of need.
”
John Menadue chronicles the privatisation and hollowing out of Medicare by the Morrison Government.
https://johnmenadue.com/privatisation-and-the-hollowing-out-of-medicare/
Deves compares transgenders to Nazis, sex abusers, paedophilia, autism. Have I left anything out?
Why is everyone arguing over her fitness to stand as a candidate?
Can you imagine these views given a platform of authority.
Fordham is a f*#k knuckle.
We’ve heard from the Rear-Admiral, what’s your pov sprocket? You seem considerably more chipper about Albo’s prospects?
“I had forgotten what a dumbarse Ben Fordham is.”
Fordham went all RWNJ after he lost a survey to Kyle and Jackie O
@Andrew Earlwood
Fair enough, I guess. Have a good day.
@Itep
Oh, for sure. No argument there.
But as an occasional PBer, I gets me a little curious as to what motivates posters.
Anyway, hope you have a good day, too.
From the AFR
Since the budget was handed down on March 29, Labor has on average spent $14,631 a day on advertising on Facebook and Instagram compared with the Coalition’s $8210 a day.
Independents are spending an average of $2740 a day on Facebook and Instagram, while the Greens are spending an average of $1123 a day and the United Australia Party is spending $861 on average a day.
”
If Anthony Albanese was a sharper politician, he’d be telling us his priorities were wages, wages, wages, writes Ross Gittins.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/it-s-not-jobs-we-re-short-of-it-s-jobs-that-pay-decent-wages-20220419-p5aebk.html
”
Sandman
This is the over-arching economic narrative I hinted at last night. Albanese needs to tell that more consistently and more often. I saw Tony Burke talk about it on ABC News Breakfast today.
Can someone post the script/video of Micheal Rowlands interview with Tony Burke on Newsbreakfast today.
Ben Fordham now reading out texts from NSW Liberals shitcanning Matt Kean – whiteanting Dom Perrotet. And accuses Kean of ‘tieing ScoMo’s shoelaces together as he is about to run in the field’.
In short, get back into your box Matt Kean.
Stephen Koukoulas @TheKouk
Bond yields about to hit fresh cyclical highs:
Implied yield on futures market:
3 years 2.71%
10 years 3.17%
Big news…
Re forcing aged pensioners onto INDUE’s cashless debit card
There is lobby group Council of the Aging with Canberra office headed by Ian Yates
and there is
grass roots National Seniors spokesperson Ian Henschke
I think National Seniors is more representative of the majority of seniors who are on the aged pension
Ian Yates seems to represent wealthy retirees, he always supports Liberal policy
I firmly believe that a re-elected LNP will roll out cashless debit card to ALL income support payments as the own INDUE
With 31 days to go – it’s too late for Labor to change campaign strategy.
In any event there still 6 points in front.
Any change now will smell of panic – which is crazy with double digit swings in the wings in QLD+WA
Point is, Albanese has been talking about wage stagnation.
So it is obvious now that Deves is a dead cat.
Throw something on the table to distract from the real issues – Trump was a master at this. Morrison? Not so much.
”
“How much do mainstream media matter in an election campaign? (Spoiler: more than you might think)”, says Denis Muller.
https://theconversation.com/how-much-do-mainstream-media-matter-in-an-election-campaign-spoiler-more-than-you-might-think-180780
”
True
That is the reason Albanese and ALP are not having commanding lead in Polls.
If MSM tells real story of Australia LNP will be blown away out of water/ they will be hit out of park like Geoff Lee did in Parramatta in 2011 NSW State election, a 25% swing against ruling party.
Jaeger @ #21 Wednesday, April 20th, 2022 – 6:42 am
Call me a stickler for detail, but the quoted BBC podcast with Vindman et al has a release date of May 17 2022. Sorry. Now, as you were ….
Speaking of May, May 1 is a nice red flag day for Albo to launch his prime ministership.
Nasty storm last night.
It would appear that not only do we have a hostile media we also have deaf ALP supporters.
I always thought peace with Murdoch was what Labor should have done.
Meher thought they tried and there was one report about a meeting in March 2021.
Clearly those negotiations if they happened were unsuccessful.
If they’d got Murdoch by default they would have got the West – given much of the content is news Corp anyways.
After reading Crikey’s demolition of the Liberal’s ‘Look at the Facts’ ads running on high rotation I can’t help wondering why Labor hasn’t rushed out an ad attacking the lies and falshoods rather than just leaving it out there hanging boring it’s way into voters brains.
i think the pm is in mor trouble kean might b e turnbulls mouth pease but deaves was clearly a bad choice kean has been nsws most effective minister desbite him caving on colars and allowing there habatats2gb fordim and co just want to get rid of all moderits in the liberals and turn to a trump abott was way mor distructive then kean very disapointing that minns is willing to pander to 2gb not good about the lack of woman in bords but he replaced mccay supozidly on bad poleing but has dun nothing acsept suck up to 2gb never goes on abc did well in bega but has no policies and is only there because of awu never talks to traditional labor voters like abc
Why rebut ads Mundo when you congratulate yourself on how clever you are with lame scare campaigns a la rushton and Medicare? Even the abc has labelled them “false”
Very little of Albo and Jim’s kickarse PC yesterday made it to telly.
Only one grab of Jim across the 4 networks I watched.
Take 2
A cautionary little misadventure . Nothing to do with the election and more on personal health.
Last week I developed a small abscess in my mouth. Didn’t take much notice until it became bigger and started to get painful and my jaw started to tighten up.
Oops. Off to the hospital around 10 AM thinking they’d pump me full of antibiotics, give me a script for some more orally and everything would be tickety boo. Jaysus was I wrong.
I’d been seen by a surgeon by about 1045, theatre booked, scrubbed and prepped and rolled into the operating theatre. Lights out at 1515 then knew nothing until coming around in ICU at 0915 the next morning.
Believe me after experiencing the ICU it’s an experience I have no wish to repeat. Intubated and catheterised at least that was done while I was unconscious. Just wish I had been in the same state when they were removed.
A couple of days hooked up to a drip being given a cocktail of antibiotics and other drugs, drains removed and released home.
A couple of hours later round 2 started. Stomach pain like I’ve never felt before. Phone call to ambulance which arrived some 3 hours later with a solo crew. So back to the RHH I did go. Full round of blood tests and much poking and prodding the result of which had me folding like a pocket knife, multiple times. Outcome? Suspected gastritis. More tablets and sent home again, still with pain but assured it will ease (finally started).
The reason I ended up with an emergency op and all expenses paid stay in ICU? When the abscess started to grow it went down and back pressing on and starting to close my trachea so they wanted me there to fully support breathing. In fact at the very start they weren’t even sure they’d be able to get a breathing tube in.
I still feel like I’ve been hit by a Mack truck but things could of been a lot worse.
Oh and if you develope one of these bloody things, get it checked out.
Lars Von Trier @ #78 Wednesday, April 20th, 2022 – 8:33 am
I’ve never posted on Medicare or Ruston scare campaigns let alone congratulated myself.
I think rebutting ads which are demonstrable false and grossly dishonest would be a game changer.
So, assuming Perrottet is telling the truth, then Morrison is the leaker to Murdoch. Morrison is willing to use anyone for his own purposes.
Sorry I meant Labor not u Mundo.
Lol – Morrison leaking texts again?
marles and albanese tried pease witth murdock marles and albanese went to newyork for the meeting and apeered on sky a lot plus waterd down there climate policy and dropt tax reform pandering to the right never works do not understand whiy labor has to move towards the centre when lnp only apeels to there base with devisive policies like religis fredom and trans gender that theacerige voter is not concerned about the economy cost of living and job security matters more evebn with minns bending over back woods to be ben fordems pupit and egnoring his own suporters 2gb and the lnp media will back perretett next year maybi minns should start attacking the governemt in stead of attacking the person who has the strogest climate policy and should be fed leader to bring liberals back to broad church
The DonBas battle will show how much the Russians have learned from Putin’s War.
Some indications that they may have learned something. Command and control at the top has been consolidated. The new head honcho is a proven performer (and, IMO, an evil piece of work). The Russians are attacking on a broad front. They are not refusing their flanks. They are engaging in thorough artillery preparation. They have stockpiled supplies close to the fighting. They have a clear strategy. Their strategy is limited and is more in line with the available forces. They have in recent weeks sent out small infantry patrols to reconnoitre. They are deploying the airforce in strength.
None of those applied during their failed Kyiv attack.
An open question is whether they are using their tanks in a better co-ordinated combined arms fashion. Another open question is whether they believe they can hive off Mariupol forces to take part in the DonBas battle.
How will all that go? I am reminded of Longstreet’s response to a question about why Pickett’s Charge failed so terribly. ‘I have always thought the Yankees had something to do with it.’
There are two sides in this battle.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/19/ukraine-war-battle-for-donbas-has-begun-russia-launches-offensive
Penny Wong
(Amy is on the job)
Lars VonTrier
The media factcheck such as Abc , get caught out of misleading fact finding themselves
I’m not concerned with the supposed impartiality of the Sky hosted debate tonight. I’m sure their 30-40k regular viewers will be enthralled though.
BK
Thanks very much for today’s dawn patrol.
I believe most of the claims made regarding the Indue card are correct.
Centrelink have been readying for the expansion for some time.
I would love someone to question the department.
If the Coalition wins the election there’s going to be plenty of egg all round.
And there Mundo is the root of the problem.
You can talk to the cows come home but if MSM won’t broadcast you are like a person alone in a forest yelling.
“The ship of state is the only ship that leaks from the top.”
One thing i notice with Morrison
He has plagiarise Turnbull’s medicare scare speech about pensioners , word for word in attacking Labor facts on the indue welfare debit card about pensioners
Anyway off to do some work.
How much has the US given or done for the Ukrainians that hasn’t been publicly revealed?
It’s not a stretch to imagine there won’t be a Russian Black Sea fleet by years end. In other words a NATO lake out of the Black Sea.