The Australian brings us what is apparently the first ever Newspoll conducted over the Easter break, presumably portending weekly polling throughout the campaign. In what can only be a morale-booster for Labor after the troubled first week of its campaign, it records no change on two-party preferred, with Labor maintaining a lead of 53-47. Both major parties are down a point on the primary vote, Labor to 36% and the Coalition to 35%. The Greens are up two points to 12%, their best result since May last year, with One Nation and the United Australia Party both on 4%, respectively up one and steady.
The strains of the first week have shown on Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings, his approval rating down five to 37% and disapproval up six to 51%. Scott Morrison is respectively up one to 43% and down two to 52%, and his lead as preferred prime minister is out from 44-39 to 44-37. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1510.
Ruston didn’t say anything about moving pensions onto the Cashless Welfare Card this term.
She said they were going to move all *income management* onto the Cashless Welfare Card (e.g. move the people still on BasicsCard from the NT intervention over).
The whole scare campaign is nonsense, if entertaining nonsense (because they do very much want to expand it, if not to pensioners, without having to specify exactly who and where) and if there was ever a time Labor were going to do their own version of an LNP-style “retiree tax” nonsense campaign it’s a fitting issue.
That said, Labor people making up fictitious quotes that would make that not nonsense is getting into the kind of “make up your own reality” Sky News-like stuff that I’d really rather rational people leave to the lunar right.
Oakeshott Country says:
Tuesday, April 19, 2022 at 5:28 pm
Nah
North Queensland missed its chance in 1901:
———————-
Bugger. Senator Upnorth has a good ring about it.
I only make the numbers out to be an additional 1417 new voters per electorate if spread evenly…..not enough to make much difference in all but the tightest of tight counts
Northern NSW has come much closer to being a new state – with support at 46% at referendum
(Of course the rest of NSW would have had to agree – which was unlikely)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1967_New_South_Wales_New_England_new_state_referendum
Vic,
Richard Willingham is reporting this. So, yes!
The worst road in Victoria is obviously the Liberals road to power!
“Reminder that people claimed the huge early vote in 2019 meant that there was a change coming.
In reality the early vote showed a larger swing against Labor than on the day votes.”
The last half dozen years have seen a big rise in early voting but also such a variety of different factors affecting who is early voting (hello, COVID!) that it has been impossible to derive a consistent formula for whether the early voting will be more or less conservative than the election day voting. The last Victorian state election was a bugger for that and that was pre-COVID, the election night seat predictions swung around like a Hills Hoist in a hurricane.
So yeah, I definitely would not be trying to say a big early vote is a sign of anything other than a big early vote.
She is of view that Deves is part of the plan
——–
Ronni Salt
Look at these seats Morrison is targeting. He’s aiming for the western Sydney belt.
He sees this as his pathway to winning
Look at the religiosity in these seats, immigrant families or with conservative family values.
Then ask yourself why he’s making a big deal out of #Deves https://t.co/xyjePYqYfo
”
Rex Douglassays:
Tuesday, April 19, 2022 at 3:45 pm
So, the SA Libs are led by Spiers – a Pentecostal nutter who is anti-abortion and anti-seperation of church and state.
https://indaily.com.au/news/2021/06/04/the-divine-right-pentecostal-recruitment-drive-divides-sa-libs/
There’s a pattern emerging around the country re the Libs and religion.
”
Rex
Peter M is reportedly anti-abortion, anti-SSM.
Rebecca @ #748 Tuesday, April 19th, 2022 – 5:35 pm
Really?
Hansard is ‘making up quotes’?
Van Badham
@vanbadham
· 1h
Admitted in Senate Estimates: the Liberal government have ALREADY involuntarily moved 26 Age Pensioners to the Cashless Debit Card. #auspol
GG
Oh dear if Richard Willingham is reporting it!
He is usually quite sympathetic to the fibs.
They are beyond a joke!
Wow, I have just the Albanese press conference from today (thanks for the link, Bodgie).
https://youtu.be/me9iJVChd1w
The young journos were feral, spiteful, angry, and bitter sounding. Really hostile. I couldn’t believe the antagonistic air with them shouting out insulting “facts”, going the gotcha, ripping at each other to get to ask a question.
In particular, the Indue Card controversy seemed to enrage them. They DEMANDED that Albo back up his comments, and when he produced quotes in context, from the present Parliament, from 2020, from the new Health Minister, they brushed them as a so much word trickery, and re-asked the question, shouted it at him, so rudely. They had obviously been given instructions to demolish the “scare”, and failed spectacularly.
‘Rebecca says:
Tuesday, April 19, 2022 at 5:35 pm
Ruston didn’t say….’
—————————
She is part of the most mendacious, corrupt, venal and incompetent government since Federation but I am SURE Ms Ruston is telling the truth!
Since the Liberal led coalition first ran in 1943, their lowest combined primaries have been
39.5% in 1988, Howard def. Beazley (Beazley won popular vote)
41.4% in 2019, Morrison def. Shorten
41.5% in 1972, Whitlam def. McMahon
42.0% in 2016, Turnbull def. Shorten
42.1% in 2007, Rudd def. Howard
42.9% in 2001, Howard def. Beazley
If the current primary of 35% is reflective of the election, it would be worst in their history by a long way.
Rex Douglas says:
Tuesday, April 19, 2022 at 4:30 pm
Clare and Bowen and others were in the pocket of Clubs NSW for donations.
Gillard was rolled. Wilkie was stiffed.
_________________________________________________________
I say it again: Gillard and Labor did not have the numbers to enact Wilkie’s legislation. The Coalition and four of the six crossbenchers, including Windsor and Oakeshott, were opposed. That’s why Gillard proceeded with a watered-down version of Wilkie’s legislation, which he at least voted to pass.
However, even this mildly anti-pokie law was repealed once Abbott became prime minister.
Labor did not do much to oppose this, as Labor MPs probably thought they would not get much credit if they did.
C@t
As you stated. The cashless card policy is all in aid of fiberals having their friends run the system. The fibs modus operandi is finding ways of laundering taxpayer funds into the pockets of their people
@Rebecca: The Liberals weren’t going to force Indigenous communities onto the cashless welfare card until they were.
John Howard said never ever a GST and then introduced a GST. Tony Abbott made a shitload of promises he tried to break at his first budget as PM. The media gets very hung up on “it’s not true because they denied it”. It can be true despite the denial. Yes Minister I think coined the joke – “never believe anything until it has been officially denied”.
Scare campaigns are effective if they are believable despite the official denial.
People unfortunately believed a Shorten-led ALP would do a “death tax” despite denials.
People ought to believe a Morrison government would do shit like expanding the use of cashless welfare cards and introducing Medicare co-payments despite weak official denials (“Medicare is guaranteed” is not actually a denial you’ll introduce co-payments, Mr Frydenberg), because it would be par for the course for them and they have established their willingness to tell bare-faced lies.
Do they actually secretly want to do it despite the denials?
I dunno, but neither do you unless you are actually Morrison or Frydenberg. I tend to think no on the Indue card (pensioners are their most reliable voting base, why piss them off?) but yes on the Medicare co-payments especially after the Frydenberg weaselling. That statement sounded to me like, in his head, if re-elected he would be introducing “co-payments, a new policy to GUARANTEE the sustainability of Medicare” within 12 months and denying this represented any kind of lie or backflip at all.
The Kouk on latest betting
Huge betting flows as Election Day draws nearer:
Money for Labor after they hit an absurd $2.04.
Or was it silly?
Latest:
Labor $1.82
Coalition $2.20
C@t, I know you’re on the Central Coast somewhere.
My brother is at Wamberal/Terrigal.
He said there’s a bit of unease about the offshore gas exploration.
Smoko said definitely no but my brother’s feedback is that given smokos propensity to lie some of his neighbours are asking if they can bank on the no exploration policy to hold.
Any feedback about this from your neck of the woods?
Been There @ #749 Tuesday, April 19th, 2022 – 5:34 pm
Larry Anthony was actually the CEO of Indue at some stage. As far as I can see with a quick Google, it seems to be owned by a range of member owned financial institutions (credit unions, etc) and provides a processing platform for them. There are also several other companies that provide such processing platforms for member owned financial institutions, so it doesn’t cover the whole sector – without more research I don’t know what percentage of that market it has. It’s possible, given Larry Anthony’s involvement, that most of its business is with institutions with regional and rural origins, which might mean that it is largely controlled by National party types, but I can’t say that for sure.
@Victoria – I respect Ronni but the idea of a grand plan to distract, potentially voluntarily hand over their own seats (including that of his own deputy) to chase after seats that weren’t lost in 2019 is just buying into the Scotty electoral genius bullshit.
This was an own-goal the Libs may NOW be trying to make the best of it – but the idea it was the plan from the outset is just 100 kinds of bonkers.
C@tmomma, I was responding to someone claiming that Ruston had actually said she wanted to put pensioners on the cashless welfare card, who was referring to the quote Albo cited in his press conference today (which said no such thing).
The small number of pensioners on it in the NT/North Qld is a peculiar subject for Labor to pick up on, too, given that it’s a relic of the NT Intervention, and Labor both voted for it and maintained the BasicsCard throughout the Rudd/Gillard years. It’s good that they’ve had a change of heart now, but the pretending that they weren’t for it before they were against it is a bit off.
Again, I do enjoy seeing the Liberals made to stew for the cashless welfare card, I just get frustrated with people trying to make up their own facts.
south says Tuesday, April 19, 2022 at 5:19 pm
Are you sure about that? I suspect you might have an order of magnitude error (although it would probably be considered close enough if were an astronomer).
Arky – yeah, I’m on the same page there (on both counts).
Jt1983
I concur.
For those seeking some humour.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1516319564900241412
Rebecca,
Nice of you to join us.
What part of income management don’t you understand?
I have no doubt the Liberals would love to put everyone receiving benefits who’s not a Liberal voter on the indue card. That means the unemployed, those on sickness benefits (does that still exist) as well as those on supporting parents and disability pensions. However, there’s no way they would be crazy enough to extend that to the age pension. There are far too many Liberal voters receiving that benefit.
Having said that, the claim by Labor is far less dishonest than the Liberals “death tax” scare – which they appear to be running again this election.
It appears to me alp…nsw 0 to 5 plus vic + 1 to 3 sa +1 to 2 Tasmania +1 to 2 wa + 2 to 4 qld + 1 to 5.. that gives me + 6 and minority govt. Max + 20 av + 10 ish….
Need +7 …
Ind +2 to 4 all teals. Qld with a 5 to 10% swing to Labor.. see bludger track… would be unusual if it did not yield extra alp seats a 5% swing can be 7% in some seats
Wasn’t Larry Anthony (son of Doug and a former MP) connected to ABC Learning, the Child Care Company which went broke despite the revenue received from the Federal Government – and which was a major donor to the Liberal Party.
And am I correct that the fall out was Dutton purchasing from the Liquidators for “Fast Eddie’s” business?
And was there not a Levy to repair the damage?
Can do capitalism, hey?
Amazing where these people turn up
The Cashless Debit Card, which apparently Liberal MP Bridget Archer has warned that her colleagues wish to expand further to those on pensions which is welfare payment
bc,
You’re totally right! My bad.
All in all that addition of new voters is probably normal. I wonder if AEC produced stats on enrollments before each election it may just be the normal amount.
https://dbr.abs.gov.au/region.html?lyr=aus&rgn=036
Looking at the ERP stats, for ages 15-19 from 2019 there were about 1.9M so 210K sounds about right for people being of voting age.
And all in all…nothing burger.
Greensborough Growler: “Income management” is the Cashless Welfare Card and the BasicsCard.
Ruston’s comment of “we’re seeking to put all income management onto the universal platform, which is the cashless debit card” is plainly and not really disputably referring to merging the BasicsCard into the Cashless Welfare Card.
It’s either a plain misquote, or it’s talking about the tiny number of pensioners in NT/north Qld who are on BasicsCard and would be moved across. If Labor are completely fine with those pensioners being on BasicsCard (which is basically exactly the same, except that Labor voted for it under Howard in 2007 and kept it through the Rudd/Gillard years), then it’s even more disingenuous.
Its Morrison own side once again ,is putting it out there that Pensioners are likely to be on the welfare Debit card, if Morrison and his cronies get re-elected
Thanks Upnorth.
Great song.
Don’t know where I’ll end up, but it’ll be somewhere between Tully and Cooktown.
So many options and properties are still reasonably priced through that region.
Hope it stays that way for a couple of years.
If Liberal party Mp Bridget Archer is conceding that Pensioners are likely to go on the debit card
Its not a Labor scare campaign
Rnm1953 @ #768 Tuesday, April 19th, 2022 – 5:50 pm
That would be PEP11. Yes, the Liberals have been saying the Petroleum Exploration Permit (PEP) has been cancelled. However, in true weasel words fashion, what the Coalition hasn’t stated is that the company who holds the permit has challenged the cancellation and the case is due to go to court after the election.
If their Appeal is successful they will be able to do Seismic Testing off the Central Coast and Northern Beaches and locate their Gas Wells within sight of the Central Coast. A Terminal to turn the Natural Gas into LNG is proposed to be built in Newcastle.
So, basically the Coalition have kicked it into the long grass until after the election. Very sneakily.
Where did Archer concede that?
People citing Van Badham as a credible source.
Rebecca,
You spin it your way.
I’ll spin it mine.
Regardless of your interpretation, my belief is the Libs will try to introduce the Indue card for pensioners and try to control how they spend their money.
Spiers is reporting this! As usual, what a Liberal says seems to become fact.
Malinauskas is socially conservative so will have some similar views to Spiers – yet he actually did vote for Chapmans abortion bill and also voted for the voluntary assisted dying bill.
The big difference is that Malinauskas is a small “s _c” socially conservative backed by a party and factions with a balanced set of views and prepared to be pragmatic about how this forms their policy. Spiers is claiming to also be a small “s c” socially conservative but is using the far right religious nutters of his party to gain power. These people arent interested in conscience votes. They want power and then force through anti abortion laws. How Spiers responds to this will be interesting. His time as Environment Minister showed him to be the most blatant two faced politician in the state. I predict he will continue to say one thing to calm the moderates and then do what his backers demand.
Rebecca on PB alternative facts are preferred by the majority. No need to intrude with true facts.
An economists mea culpa
https://www.crikey.com.au/2022/04/19/an-economists-mea-culpa/
While it would be best if these things didn’t happen in the first place, it is nice to see a true recognition of being wrong. And not just apologising for it, but explaining actions that will help ensure it doesn’t happen again.
Here is the twitter post-mortem: https://twitter.com/jasemurphy/status/1516221795162296325?cxt=HHwWisDU1Y_s2YoqAAAA
If you ask me, there is far too much fun being had by senior citizens in this country. Some of them buy beer with their pension money. I’ve even heard that a percentage of them wish to travel overseas. Some even like dancing.
It has to stop… or BE stopped!
Ruston’s comment of “we’re seeking to put all income management onto the universal platform, which is the cashless debit card” is plainly and not really disputably referring to merging the BasicsCard into the Cashless Welfare Card.
Um, no it isn’t. You might want to assert that but it doesn’t mean that at all. What it means, as far as I comprehend that sentence, is that Anne Ruston wants to put ‘all income management onto the universal platform, which is the Cashless Debit Card’. By ‘income management’, as the Coalition have stated before (no I can’t prove it off the top of my head but maybe someone else can), is that they believe that everyone on a Welfare payment should be on an income management system, beginning with those on JobSeeker. That is, on the Indue Card. As it is merged with the Basics Card and the Basics Card is eliminated.
Thank you TPOF that was a great clip of Albo firmly putting a journo on her backside. She was mixing up Rustons comments about Medicare 2014 and the cashless welfare card. To think this journo is from the ABC ( from my google search) . I no longer watch it I’m so pissed off with their coverage. If the Tory’s are re-elected and privatise them I think it will serve them right.
Rebecca says:
Tuesday, April 19, 2022 at 6:07 pm
Where did Archer concede that?
————–
Why she abstained from voting for it in when it passed the house of reps , that was her reason on the word of her colleges
”
Xenusays:
Tuesday, April 19, 2022 at 4:35 pm
I find this minority government talk ridiculous tbh. The polls have been consistently around 52.5-53 to Labor. If they tighten sure but currently it would be highly highly unlikely Labor couldn’t form a majority government with a 4-4.5% national swing to them. I cannot understand how apparent political journalists who have covered politics for years don’t get that
”
Oh they know it Xenu.
They just pretend that they don’t know because otherwise they have to change their narrative that Albanese is finished.
Have you had yourself checked for cognitive decline BB?
You were noticeably sharper a few years ago!
ltep @ #788 Tuesday, April 19th, 2022 – 6:08 pm
People slagging off Van Badham. 😐
Rebecca, sorry but parsing Ruston’s statement doesn’t help because the term income management can be seen as broad or narrow since she goes on to say “the universal platform”