Federal election minus 35 days

The campaign’s first leaders debate locked in, plus various electorate-level brush fires and candidate announcements.

As the campaign enters a lull over the Easter extended weekend, there is at least the following to report:

• The first leaders’ debate of the campaign will be held on Wednesday, to be hosted in Brisbane by Kieran Gilbert of Sky News and with the leaders to face questions from 100 undecided voters.

Stephen Lunn of The Australian reports the Australian Electoral Commission will be operating 550 pre-poll booths at this election, up from 515 in 2019. The period for pre-poll voting has been reduced since the last election from three weeks to two.

• Liberal Ben Small has had to resign from his Western Australian Senate seat after becoming aware he was a dual citizen of New Zealand, where his father was born, which somehow escaped the notice of all concerned when he filled Mathias Cormann’s vacancy in November 2020. His term was shortly to expire in any case, and he will return if elected from third on the party’s Senate ticket at the election.

Paul Starick of The Advertiser reports that Liz Habermann, who came close to winning the regional seat of Flinders from the Liberals at last month’s South Australian state election, will shortly announce her candidacy for the corresponding federal seat of Grey, held for the Liberals by Rowan Ramsey.

The Age reports Zoe Daniel, the former ABC journalist challenging Liberal MP Tim Wilson as an independent in Goldstein, has apologised over an article she wrote in 2017 in which she said then US President Donald Trump was “satisfying his wealthy Jewish donors” when he declared Jerusalem to be the capital of Israel. The electorate’s 6.8% Jewish population as of the 2016 census was the third highest in the country, behind Wentworth and neighbouring Macnamara.

• A spokesperson for the Law Society of New South Wales told the Daily Telegraph that Sarah Richards, the Liberal candidate for the marginal Labor seat of Macquarie in outer Sydney, may have broken the law in describing herself as a qualified solicitor on her LinkedIn profile. Richards holds a law degree, but ceased to be a practising solicitor in 2007.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,259 comments on “Federal election minus 35 days”

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  1. “ What did Admiral Akbar say ? “Break off the attack, its a trap!!””

    And who ended up winning that particular battle, Obi L’arse Von Trylib?

  2. Keating on Q&A. Would this relate to SKY somehow?

    “I wouldn’t be caught dead on it,” Mr Keating said.

    “If I was the prime minister I would not let federal ministers go on that program. You just wash the government through mud every time you turn up.”

  3. Morrison is stressed cos he knows he may not be able to control the narrative much longer.

    All i can say it will be well deserved.

  4. ajm says:
    Sunday, April 17, 2022 at 5:33 pm

    Keating eventually lost becasue of that sort of arrogance.
    ____________
    What’s the old Italian saying: Better to live one day as a lion than a hundred years as a sheep.

  5. One can understand Keating’s distain for QandA.

    But there is no way he’d dodge a debate on SkyNoos if he felt like throwing a punch at a political opponent. He’d insist on independent vetting of the morons making up the ‘undecided voters’, or insist on there being no audience participation at all: but he wouldn’t dodge piss ants like Gilbert or crazies like Murray (not that Murray will play an active role anyways).

  6. That is a quote that is attributed to mussolini that isnt much chop.

    Better to be led by a lion than a sheep might be a more worthwhile objective. Think that was attributed to Alexander the Great.

  7. nath @ Sunday, April 17, 2022 at 5:35 pm
    “ajm says:
    Sunday, April 17, 2022 at 5:33 pm

    Keating eventually lost becasue of that sort of arrogance.
    ____________
    What’s the old Italian saying: Better to live one day as a lion than a hundred years as a sheep.”

    And you also advise Albanese NOT to go on Sky.

    Right 🙂

  8. Victoria says:
    Sunday, April 17, 2022 at 5:42 pm

    That is a quote that is attributed to mussolini that isnt much chop.
    __________
    It’s an old Italian saying that Mussolini used.

  9. ‘Tricot says:
    Sunday, April 17, 2022 at 5:20 pm

    Bluey…
    West newspapers have Morrison 5 to Albanese 1….Surely you do not think you are smarter than a State capital daily……? Mr Speaker….What do you think?’
    ———————————————-
    If you take away the media cover being run by Murdoch, Stokes, Costello and Buttrose then what you have left is core Morrison: organizational shambles, some sort of payout for a human being who was bastardized by a couple of Liberals in the House, a minister over in the Solomons trying desperately to reverse a decade of national security neglect, stonking porking, trans individuals being bastardized for political gain, $5.5 billion for zero submarines, a slew of lies about Labor, a trillion dollar debt and on and on and on.
    Of course the West is going to say Albanese 1 Morrison 5. The rich folk OWN Morrison and will pump his tyres until the cows come home.

  10. Daniel Andrews has dealt with Neil Mitchell in the most beautiful way.

    He has shown Mitchell (& Murdoch) to be irrelevant when it comes to winning elections – and he’s done it through silence, which cuts the egomaniac Mitchell very deep.

  11. Of course if Albo decided not to go on SKY everyone here would be nodding sagely in agreement. Very wise Albo they would mutter.

  12. In the claim, which the ABC hasn’t seen, Ms Miller described a series of alleged incidents of bullying, harassment and discrimination while she worked as an adviser for the Coalition.

    When asked about the new allegations, Prime Minister Scott Morrison said the process was confidential.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-17/rachelle-miller-allegations-historical-claim-other-liberal-mp/100996320

    If this claim were paid in a public company in compensation for a transgression committed by a board member.. all involved would be gone & the share holders informed…. The shareholders being all of the public in this case.

  13. Go for it Bluey!
    Trouble is, many of the great unwashed still read the outputs of these very rich people and have their views shaped by them….On the other hand, I probably over-estimate the impact of the shrinking readership and the fact the editorials are rarely read by anyone….let alone the great unwashed….

  14. The Australian media, following overseas media and without much of a brainfart to rub together is repeating the mantra that Mariupol would be the first ‘major Ukrainian city’ to the fall to the Russians when it falls, as fall it must.

    Slack reporting and wRONg.

    Kherson, population 280,000, fell quite early in the piece.

  15. Oakeshott Country says:
    Sunday, April 17, 2022 at 3:50 pm
    As the Commonwealth Fund stats show Canada comes 10th out of 11 for access and equity
    BUT hey, privileged white folk haven’t put their hands in their pockets for 50 years so it must be good
    ————————————————————

    Predictably you have failed to address the issues I raised in my post.

    But O.C., even you must wonder about Commonwealth Fund reports which show Canada in 10th place. That’s only better than the United States among the 11 major industrialized nations, with Australia in third place. Seriously?

    As someone who has had experience in both systems, it’s no contest in terms of access, quality of care and timeliness. Canada trumps Australia in every category. Oh, but I’m only someone who used the system. When was the last time you were in Canada to study Medicare there?

    This is not what the C.F. finds with its robocall surveys.

    If you believed the Commonwealth Fund, Canada’s health system is third world class.

    And “administrative efficiency!” Are you kidding? Australia second and Canada seventh?

    A single payer, with no private hospital system or health and hospital insurance companies, loses out to a hodge-podge of players, public hospitals, private hospitals, a health diagnostic industry, a hybrid of co-pays, excesses, and out of pockets?

    But clearly their surveys give little weight to affordability which drives access and equity. They are highly suspect if they rate Australia above Canada in those categories. Their methodology leaves a lot to be desired.

    But keep drinking their Kool-Aid. If you’re happy with the current system you are welcome to it. It would be informative, however, if you could tell us how you benefit from it.

    After May 21, we finally may have the prospect of moving towards a system that the Commonwealth Fund ranks second last among major industrialized nations.

  16. Rexxy,

    I think Morrison is buckling under the pressure. He may not be up to t he job of PM.

    Pass it on!

  17. I love the “voters swing back to government” headline where it looks like the coalition went up 1% on the PV to 35%. I don’t think they can win an election with a PV that far under 40.

  18. I just watched and heard Chris Ulhmman on Ch 9 and said it was disastrous for Albo. Yet the 2PP is Alp 54 Lnp 45. ?????

  19. Primary support for the Coalition rose from 34 to 35 per cent
    ————–

    Lol thats not a swing back

    Labor wins comfortably with the Lib/nats combined primary vote 35% = 6.5% swing against the lib/nats

  20. Vicoria,
    I think that voters have been brainwashed in thinking that Albo is unknown that’s why they are telling the posters they are not yet sure,

  21. Yet again… a poll showing a slide for ALP but the Libs aren’t really benefitting.

    Just as telling in my mind.

    “Disastrous poll” that would have still have the Libs annihilated.

    Will be interesting to see where we are in a fortnight.

  22. Xenu says:
    Sunday, April 17, 2022 at 6:12 pm
    I love the “voters swing back to government” headline where it looks like the coalition went up 1% on the PV to 35%. I don’t think they can win an election with a PV that far under 40.
    ———————————————–

    Labor wins the federal election comfortably , If the lib/nats combined primary 35 %

  23. Asha,

    Despite many people believing the MSM narrative, nothing happened last week to change the paradigm.

    The MSM need a contest because it is good for their business.

    Lars’ wise words are not that wise really.

  24. Could someone that understands age based voting look at the Resolve breakdown… looks dodgy as hell to me, compare Ind vs LNP , given that Ind are standing in LNP seats.
    It’s flat for Ind , huge jump in +55 for LNP…makes no sense

  25. Stunning images of Larapinta Trail. Thanks for the link Itza Dream. We did only a very short stretch of the trail near Simpson’s Gap but even that was simply breathtaking.

  26. SMH

    Labor leader Anthony Albanese has paid the price for a damaging opening week in the election campaign after voters cut their support for the opposition from 38 to 34 per cent while swinging back to Scott Morrison as preferred prime minister.

    Primary support for the Coalition rose from 34 to 35 per cent, and Morrison made gains on his personal approval and performance on key issues including economic management and national security.

    The first major survey of the campaign revealed a reversal of fortune for the two leaders, with Morrison leading Albanese as preferred prime minister by 38 to 30 per cent after the Labor leader held the advantage two weeks ago with a lead of 37 to 36 per cent.

    But the survey, conducted by Resolve Strategic for The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age, also showed that 27 per cent of people eligible to vote at the May 21 election describe themselves as uncommitted, up from 21 per cent two weeks ago.
    “Every trend has gone the Coalition’s way in this latest poll – vote, leadership, policy, performance – so the electorate is judging that the government won the first week of the campaign,” said Resolve director Jim Reed.

    Asked about Morrison’s performance, 44 per cent of voters said he was doing a good job and 47 per cent said he was doing a poor job, resulting in a net performance rating of minus 3 points. This was a significant improvement on a net rating of minus 14 points two weeks ago.
    Asked about Albanese, 35 per cent said he was doing a good job and 44 per cent said he was doing a poor job, producing a net rating of minus 9 points. This was a slump from his rating of minus 4 points two weeks ago.

    The Resolve Political Monitor surveyed 1404 eligible voters from Monday to Saturday .

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/albanese-pays-price-for-gaffe-as-voters-swing-back-to-government-20220417-p5ae0m.html.

    Make of it what y0u will. I treat Resolve polls with the same disregard that I do the Morgan polls.

  27. hazza4257 at 9.23am re ‘Albo’s been poor’

    Hi all, I’ve been busy today, just checking in.

    Hazza, bullshit. Albo got gotcha’d. Otherwise, he’s looked like a normal person relating to normal people on the campaign trail.

    Contrast that with Morrison, who can’t relate normally, often avoids the public (as called out by an AFR journalist) and lies about FICAC.

    Morrison is campaign loudly and destructively – to himself and his party.

  28. Alias at 9.31am

    Why are ‘we’ (code for: ‘journalists’) still talking about the ‘gaffe’? They haven’t got anything else to throw at Albo.

    Desperadoes.

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