Essential Research and Roy Morgan polls

Essential Research continues to show Labor with a modest lead relative to other pollsters, while Roy Morgan goes further than ever the other way.

Two new federal polls:

• The fortnightly Essential Research result has both major parties on 37% of the primary vote, with the Coalition up one and Labor up two, and Labor leading on the pollster’s “2PP+” measure by 48% (down one) to 44% (steady), with undecided at 7% at both measures. The Greens are down a point on the primary vote to 9%, One Nation are steady on 3%, the United Australia Party is down one to 2%, and others are steady on 4%.

Scott Morrison is up one on approval to 45% and down one on disapproval to 48%, while Anthony Albanese is up one to 43% and down three on disapproval to 36%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister narrows from 42-34 to 39-36. Approval of the federal government’s response to COVID-19 is down one to 39%, with disapproval up one to 35%. These results can be found on the pollster’s website.

The Guardian also reports the poll finds the government marked down on the its response to the recent floods, which was rated good by only 26% and poor by 40%. The poll also finds 57% believe floods will be worse in the future without significant action on climate change; that 53% believe coal should be replaced with renewable energy; and that 45% believe the Morrison government contributed to the floods through failure to mitigate the risks of climate change. Full results from the poll’s attitudinal questions should be along later today. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1091.

Roy Morgan has produced the most lopsided result in recent memory with its latest fortnightly federal poll, showing Labor leading 58-42, out from 56-44 last time. The primary votes are Coalition 31% (down two-and-a-half), Labor 37.5% (up half), Greens 12% (up half), One Nation 3% (steady) and the United Australia Party 1% (steady), with independents and others up one-and-a-half to 15.5%.

On the state two-party breakdowns, Labor leads 57.5-42.5 in New South Wales (out from 56.5-43.5, a swing of around 10%), 64-36 in Victoria (out from 59.5-40.5, a swing of around 11.5%), 59-41 in Western Australia (out from 53-47, a swing of around 14.5%), 60.5-39.5 in South Australia (out from 53.5-46.5, a swing of around 10%) and 60-40 from the particularly small sample in Tasmania (a swing of around 4%). However, the poll provides a further peculiarity in having the Coalition leading 54.5-45.5 in Queensland, out from 52-48 last time, though this still amounts to a swing of around 4% to Labor compared with the last election.

The poll was conducted from a sample of 1418 last Monday to Sunday.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,643 comments on “Essential Research and Roy Morgan polls”

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  1. Clive Palmer

    “I started to come good within 10 hours,’’ he said.

    “I’m still not a 100 per cent. I get tired pretty easily but I’m not getting any younger I suppose.

    “I think what this shows is that with the right treatment, you can survive this thing, vaccinated or not.”

    This proves that outright moronic level of stupidity is no impediment to making money, however it also proves that it is an impediment from being able to look at the past & learn from it.

  2. While there are definitions of “bullying” applying the concept in the real world is anything but straightforward. This version from Wikipedia distinguishes “bullying” from “conflict”;

    Bullying is the use of force, coercion, hurtful teasing or threat, to abuse, aggressively dominate or intimidate. The behavior is often repeated and habitual. One essential prerequisite is the perception (by the bully or by others) of an imbalance of physical or social power. This imbalance distinguishes bullying from conflict.[1] Bullying is a subcategory of aggressive behavior characterized by the following three criteria: (1) hostile intent, (2) imbalance of power, and (3) repetition over a period of time.[2] Bullying is the activity of repeated, aggressive behavior intended to hurt another individual, physically, mentally, or emotionally.”

    In this instance the elements of “intent” and “imbalance of power”, not to mention “abuse” and “aggressive dominance/intimidation”, are all contestable.

    Among the difficulties with bullying based on allegations I have heard of in workplaces and other organisations are:

    -a perception that if a person does not agree with a management decision that they see as adversely affecting their interests, many people will automatically allege bullying
    – the fact that denial of a bullying allegation may be as difficult to prove as the bullying allegation itself, and that a denial can be spun into not listening to the victim/devalidating their perspective

    This isn’t to say that there aren’t instances of hostile and harmful behaviour in the workplace or otherwise that most people would regard as unacceptable. Drawing the line will always be difficult.

  3. After nine years, Australia will accept New Zealand’s offer to resettle refugees @katinacurtis https://t.co/7ssE2h331n— Michael Koziol (@michaelkoziol) March 24, 2022

    This is Karen Andrews manoeuvring to be the next leader of the federal Liberal Party – and I reckon she will be.

    Very happy those who’ve been locked away for so long are finally looking at freedom in NZ.

  4. Bullying is complex. I’ve not thought too much about this, though I’ve certainly been subjected to bullying and watched while others have been bullied. Perhaps bullying is pervasive within human interactions. It is inherently about violence, I think. Bullying is “done to” a person “by” another person or institution. It is a transitive verb. It is about procuring submission/dominance by the display or use of force or some other power, however crudely or subtly that might be done.

    I was a listener to a conversation – an extended one – recently between two women with whom I’m friends. They were talking to each other and while present I took no important part in their discussion. I listened. They began by talking of their experiences with a particular man for whom they’d both worked, and they compared notes about his tantrums, his insults and blaming, and the greed that this served.

    This discussion lasted for a couple of hours. It was entirely unprompted. It evolved into a discussion of their intimate experiences with men. They each described some of the events from their relationships, and this led to their descriptions of being pressured into having sex – into relating how they had been raped. One had been raped twice.

    Needless to say, this has had a very profound effect on me. Two women I know and very much treasure as friends have revealed their private stories. They have been subjected to a wide range of pressure, including everything from financial exclusion, dispossession, manipulation, revenge, and a routine exposure to male anger and coercion up to and including the violence implicit in rape.

    I feel particularly ‘included” by them now. As well, I can’t help thinking that if such experiences are really as commonplace as they seem, then we have a very serious structural problem with violence within our society. Of course, we do. We know this. This is what Rosie Batty, Grace Tame, Brittany Higgins and many others have been saying so clearly for so long.

    I think of the suicide of a school-mate of mine, who was bullied quite literally to his grave by our mutual peers. I think of the drive-by violence, the unprovoked assaults I have met occasionally. I think of the aggression directed against my own children from time to time. I think of the examples of self-harming that I’ve seen so often all around me. This is with us all along and has long been a curse upon us. We have to do something about this.

  5. max @ #1413 Thursday, March 24th, 2022 – 2:19 pm

    While there are definitions of “bullying” applying the concept in the real world is anything but straightforward. This version from Wikipedia distinguishes “bullying” from “conflict”;

    Bullying is the use of force, coercion, hurtful teasing or threat, to abuse, aggressively dominate or intimidate. The behavior is often repeated and habitual. One essential prerequisite is the perception (by the bully or by others) of an imbalance of physical or social power. This imbalance distinguishes bullying from conflict.[1] Bullying is a subcategory of aggressive behavior characterized by the following three criteria: (1) hostile intent, (2) imbalance of power, and (3) repetition over a period of time.[2] Bullying is the activity of repeated, aggressive behavior intended to hurt another individual, physically, mentally, or emotionally.”

    In this instance the elements of “intent” and “imbalance of power”, not to mention “abuse” and “aggressive dominance/intimidation”, are all contestable.

    Among the difficulties with bullying based on allegations I have heard of in workplaces and other organisations are:

    -a perception that if a person does not agree with a management decision that they see as adversely affecting their interests, many people will automatically allege bullying
    – the fact that denial of a bullying allegation may be as difficult to prove as the bullying allegation itself, and that a denial can be spun into not listening to the victim/devalidating their perspective

    This isn’t to say that there aren’t instances of hostile and harmful behaviour in the workplace or otherwise that most people would regard as unacceptable. Drawing the line will always be difficult.

    I’ve been bullied almost every day on PB.

  6. I’ll be happy if Xenophon takes the spot that would traditionally go to a third Liberal. I don’t give a damn about Patrick and Griff, all said and done and the only thing I cared about either was the possibility of one of them preventing the Liberals from winning a third seat.

  7. My takeout from the Kitching coverage is that the media ‘players’ pushing the story most are those that were beneficiaries of her “pssst guess what” leaks against her own party but to her own advantage.

    Samantha Maiden has stated several times (in tweets and on Insiders) that she is writing a book using Kitching’s revelations. It’s interesting that Maiden on Insiders said Kitching told her she hadn’t leaked to Reynolds – Savva has it today, chapter and verse, that she did, and calls it a sacking offence. Ms Kitching was happy to play the ends against the middle and some in our illustrious media are finding that they were at times led by the nose.

    How easy for the MSM to sit back and parse snippets from disgruntled pollies rather than analyse and report – didn’t they used to be called reporters? Or even investigative reporters. In the good old days……


  8. mundosays:
    Thursday, March 24, 2022 at 12:52 pm
    How many people in the parliament would have a CV comparable with Dr Charlton’s?
    A few? Maybe, a handful.
    Sounds pretty diverse to me.
    We need to get more people like Dr Charlton into the parliament.

    Sure mundo.
    We need people like Dr. Charlton in parliament but for some seats like Parramatta you need people like Julie Owen or Fran Bailey to hold those seats for their parties and you don’t need angry supporters in marginals like Parramatta going into an election where you have to hold all your seats and gain some.
    People like Dr. Charlton are policy wonks rather than working for their electorates hard.

  9. Ven @ #1419 Thursday, March 24th, 2022 – 2:22 pm


    mundosays:
    Thursday, March 24, 2022 at 12:52 pm
    How many people in the parliament would have a CV comparable with Dr Charlton’s?
    A few? Maybe, a handful.
    Sounds pretty diverse to me.
    We need to get more people like Dr Charlton into the parliament.

    Sure mundo.
    We need people like Dr. Charlton in parliament but for some seats like Parramatta you need people like Julie Owen or Fran Bailey to hold those seats for their parties and you don’t need angry supporters in marginals like Parramatta going into an election where you have to hold all your seats and gain some.
    People like Dr. Charlton are policy wonks rather than working for their electorates hard.

    Does Dr Charlton believe in trickle down economics …?


  10. Shellbellsays:
    Thursday, March 24, 2022 at 10:57 am
    Sydney aiming for the trifecta of:

    (a) 1,000mm annual rain by end of March (currently 933mm)
    (b) 500 mm in March (currently 411mm)
    (c) record wet March (521mm)

    Good onya Sydney. You are the greatest City in the world. Show’em how to live as Mega City with heavy rain falls unlike New York, London, Mumbai and prosper even with a worthless government. 🙂

  11. Mexicanbeemer says:
    Thursday, March 24, 2022 at 1:12 pm

    You jest surely … just use your friend Google to see Kitching & her husbands track record.

  12. Rex Douglas says:
    Thursday, March 24, 2022 at 2:20 pm

    I think it’s implicit in bullying that it involves the persecution of “a person”. I think your “nym” – your persona – has been frequently criticised by the bludgers, including, not least, by me. It’s worth asking if this is “bullying”. Maybe it is.

    “Bludging/briefly” is occasionally criticised. But this hardly amounts to attempted bullying, or if it does, it’s completely ineffective. Bludging should be rebuked rather more often than they are, and mostly for being so boring.

  13. By far and away the biggest bully in Federal Parliament today is Morrison. The other bullies are not within a bull’s roar of I AM THE PRIME MINISTER.

  14. Your biggest actual GANG of bullies in Australia politics is the Federal Coalition. Do what they want and they throw money at you. Don’t do what they want and they will trash your reputation, confront you verbally, get in your face physically, and punish you by with holding government funding.

  15. I value Rex Douglas’ posts and enjoy reading his opinions. Dont stop being you Rex. you are a little more left wing than me I think as I have grown more pragmatic as I have got older. I just want us in government.

  16. One supposes there will be some who see some benefit in flogging the Kitching saga….Can’t comment what is happening “over East” but today local whinge station, 6PR, had two local Federal pollies in – Labor MHR and Liberal Senator – to chew the political fat. Neither of them, nor Liam Bartlett, went anywhere near the Murdoch beat-up…………….
    Folks, it was all “Cost of Living” stuff with the Liberal guy telling us what a good job the Libs were doing and the Labor guy poo-pooing his points….kind of normal, day-to-day political banter…….
    Ask 100 voters about ‘Kitching” and I reckon 90 of them would say, “It’s where I have my toast and coffee” ……….

  17. Tricot says:
    Thursday, March 24, 2022 at 2:59 pm

    One supposes there will be some who see some benefit in flogging the Kitching saga….Can’t comment what is happening “over East” but today local whinge station, 6PR, had two local Federal pollies in – Labor MHR and Liberal Senator – to chew the political fat. Neither of them, nor Liam Bartlett, went anywhere near the Murdoch beat-up…………….
    _______________
    It does keep going. More articles this afternoon.

  18. I’m well and truly over debate and discussion about Kitching. Actions speak louder than words.
    Can we get back to the political reality that concerns us about this Government?
    Honesty and Trust.
    1. Honesty.
    ” Haven’t been to Hillsong in 15 years. I worship at my local church. ” Morrison.
    2019. Both Morrisons on stage with Houston, celebrating the ” miracle victory “. Praying for Australia. Singing songs of praise.
    And this doesn’t count as worship- Pentecostal style?
    2. Trust. Can we trust a Liberal government to govern for all when a Victorian Opposition member and a one- time Housing Minister tells us all that children of social housing won’t fit on good streets because they won’t have the right clothing, shoes and mobiles that wealthier kids that live there have……
    Poor kids from the boondocks need to stay in suburbs where they’ll be accepted, and not looked- down on. What’s not said but is there for all to see is… our prestigious housing values will be affected if we have social housing in “good” suburbs.
    3. Trust. Can we trust a Liberal government to honestly care about traumatised victims when Tasmanian Liberal MPs groan clearly when questions are asked in The Chamber about sexual abuse survivors?
    (Oh shit. Not more about this. Tired of this beatup. Can’t we talk about something else?)
    PS. After their Leader ( the Premier) apologises on behalf of the Government, the two members belatedly personally apologise. Like their Federal Leader, always too late after the damage has been done…
    4 Trust and Honesty. (Add Hypocrisy)
    A report released reveals bullying occurring in the Federal Liberal Party in 2018. Covered up and dismissed. But ready to leap on the Kitching bandwagon in a last- minute desperate effort to blacken perceptions of Albanese as a Leader.
    Abuse and bullying is widespread across our communities. We have to go much further than just saying how we feel about it, and blatantly using it as political ammunition. Laws must reflect our society’s concerns. This must be a part of this election.
    But don’t forget all the other important issues that feature in this election.
    Don’t accept dissembling and ” look over there ism” that this government tries on to distract us.
    Focus on all the issues that matter.

  19. The weather in Sydney’s been dreadful. We’ve had a monsoon rather than a Summer, with no end in sight. When it starts raining it continues for 7-10 days or more, with a few fine days between wet spells if we’re lucky. It’s humid all of the time, cloudy most of the time, the ground is waterlogged. There’s water damage everywhere. For any plans, you have to assume it’s going to rain.

  20. U.S. COVID update:

    – New cases: 42,624 …………………………… – New deaths: 1,374

    – States reporting: 44/50

    – In hospital: 17,647 (-579)
    – In ICU: 3,095 (-191)

    1,001,175 total deaths now

  21. The drunken victorian liberals and their class warfare of the poor dont belong in the rich suburbs will likely do more damage to Morrison and his cronies than the media’s dirty personal smear against Labor

  22. The ‘Anonymous’ collective says it has hacked the central bank of Russia. ‘Anonymous’ says it will be releasing more than 35,000 files in the next 48 hours and says some of the docs pertain to secret agreements/contracts.

  23. Re the half-Senate election, I’ve been interested in recent polls indicating chances – albeit remote – of getting a 4-2 left-right split in Tas, Vic, SA and WA. Well, the KK debacle and the lack of any pre-selected candidates puts a kibosh on Vic and now the X-man has torpedoed any hope of a third ALP Senator in SA. In WA and Tas we still have hope.

  24. So, Morrison lied about not being at Hillsong for 15 years. Morrison has been hanging out with some disreputable people – including the one he tried to smuggle into the White House.
    Morrison has questions to answer.
    We need an inquiry into what Morrison knew and when.

  25. Person 17 in the box again:

    [‘Person 17 has said she discovered she was pregnant in February 2018 and knew it was Mr Roberts-Smith’s child “as I hadn’t slept with anyone else apart from Ben” and “in any case, my husband had had a vasectomy”.

    She said the pair agreed she should terminate the pregnancy, but she started to have second thoughts about whether she wanted to go ahead with the abortion because “it’s not something I really believe in personally”.

    Person 17 said that Mr Roberts-Smith became angry at her indecision and told her that “if I kept the baby … he would not stick around long term”.

    ‘Afraid no one would believe me’: Roberts-Smith’s former lover reluctant to report alleged punch, court told.

    She has told the court she ultimately had a miscarriage, which started on March 2, 2018. Mr Roberts-Smith’s barrister, Bruce McClintock, SC, put it to Person 17 on Thursday that “it followed” that she was not pregnant on March 3, when she texted Mr Roberts-Smith.

    She replied through tears that she was “not sure if you’re aware of the process where a miscarriage happens, but it doesn’t happen within a short space of time always”.

    “You wanted him to think you were still pregnant when you knew you were not?” Mr McClintock said of the messages.

    “I suppose so,” Person 17 replied, adding that she wanted to tell him “face to face”. She rejected Mr McClintock’s suggestion she engaged in “a calculated campaign of deceit”.

    “Were you ever actually pregnant, Person 17?” Mr McClintock asked.

    “Yes,” she replied.

    Asked whether she thought it was an “appallingly dishonest thing to do” to let a man think she was pregnant with his child when she wasn’t, Person 17 replied: “I suppose so.”]

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/ben-roberts-smith-s-lover-denies-campaign-of-deceit-over-pregnancy-court-hears-20220324-p5a7hn.html

    I guess when counsel for Roberts-Smith (Moses & McClintock) use strong adjectives – as they’ve done throughout this trial – Besanko, J will be most impressed; I know I am.

  26. Mavis, doesn’t BRS have a dozen or more witnesses of his own in rebuttal?

    Could it be a dozen or more contradictory accounts which the judge has to settle? Doesn’t BRS only need one imputation on one point to be upheld to win – ie to have been defamed?

  27. ‘BK says:
    Thursday, March 24, 2022 at 3:36 pm

    Is there a worse case of bullying than was Robdebt?’
    —————————————-
    It actually DID kill quite a few people. First cab off the rank for a Royal Commission, IMO.
    But you have to look at context. They were only poor bastards who needed to be bullied to suicide FOR THEIR OWN GOOD.
    As for contex, Rex gets bullied nearly every day. Just ask him. Someone clearly needs to be managed out for that. And Wong and Co told Kitching to stop snitching like a rat to the LIberals. They were forthright, I imagine. And Astrobleme still thinks I am badgering the Greens about Jordan Steele-John’s halving of the ADF. There IS a difference between badgers and bulls!
    But, really, the worst behaviour is the atrocious bullying of a certain occy. Threatening someone with sea-food recipies!

  28. Albanese has maintained the only honest and succinct replies to the Kitching nonsense.
    The woman died far too young in her life and any discussion surrounding the matter can be indulged in, in an appropriate manner and and at an appropriate time.
    Morrison has displayed his lack of empathy with, and consideration for the relatives of the deceased woman.
    The sooner Morrison is disposed of the better.
    Morrison displaying all the attributes of a poor loser.
    A leadership challenge from a colleague would be well received.

  29. The bullying of female Liberal staffers during the Morrison Government was atrocious. None of them died as a consequence, so that’s something.
    The Coalition duly promised to pass a tiny fraction of the relevant recommendations what WOULD fix their man problem to some extent. But that will not happen until after the next election.
    Usual smoke and mirrors.

  30. Grime,
    Thanks for that Brighton article. If we can’t have social housing in the best streets of Brighton, then I suggest a new sewage outflow right beside the yacht club or a drug rehab clinic beside the station. Then again, the ALP came within a bee’s dick of winning Brighton last state election with a teenaged school-leaver flying the flag. Such is the current plight of the Libs.

  31. The legal term in court, I believe, is “badgering a witness”

    When does that become bullying?

    Asking the same question multiple times? Accusing the witness multiple times of lying? Causing the witness emotional distress?

    Big money to be made if you are good at it.

  32. Bwhahaha.
    Matthew guy reckons that upper class snob and social housing bully Wendy Lovell “means well” but her wording was ‘clumsy’.
    Guy has less control over Lovell than Bandt has over Thorpe and Steele-John.

  33. I don’t really think they have bullied these people nearly enough.

    From the Guardian:


    …The Coalition repeatedly argued that accepting the deal might encourage a resumption of asylum-seekers attempting to travel by boat to Australia.

    In 2018 the then home affairs minister, Peter Dutton, said taking up the offer “would be a pull factor at this point in time”. The same year the prime minister, Scott Morrison, said the government was “very concerned that that could risk this thing opening up again”.
    Advertisement

    In 2019 the Morrison government introduced a bill to ensure those resettled would never be able to gain a visa to travel to Australia – which was seen at the time as a precondition for the Coalition taking up the New Zealand offer – but this legislation never passed the parliament.

    On Thursday, Andrews said that “Australia’s strong border protection policies had not changed”, and the resettlement plan would not apply to people who attempted to come to Australia in future.
    …’
    ==============================================
    Spot the policy confusion, the lies and the barnacle shedding before an election.

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