Morgan: 56-44 to Labor

More of the same from Morgan, plus further poll findings from Utting Research’s WA poll and a monster YouGov survey on carbon emissions.

The fortnightly Roy Morgan federal poll had Labor leading 56-44, in from 56.5-43.5 last time. The primary votes were Coalition 33.5% (down half), Labor 37% (down half), Greens 11.5% (steady), One Nation 3% (down half) and United Australia Party 1% (steady).

The state breakdowns have Labor leading 56.6-43.5 in New South Wales (out from 56-44, a swing of around 9%), 60-40 in Victoria (in from 63.5-36.5, a swing of around 7%), 53-47 in Western Australia (out from 52-48, a swing of around 8.5%), 54.5-45.5 in South Australia (out from 52.5-47.5, a swing of around 4%) and 66.5-33.5 from the small sample in Tasmania (a swing of 10.5%), with the Coalition leading 52-48 in Queensland (a swing to Labor of around 6.5%).

The poll was conducted Thursday, March 3 to Sunday, March 13 from a sample of 1947.

Other poll snippets:

• The West Australian has continued to eke out results of its Utting Research poll, encompassing 750 respondents in the seats of Tangney, Hasluck, Pearce and Swan, from which the voting intention findings were covered here. Leadership ratings from the poll show Scott Morrison on 42% approval and 43% disapproval, which is broadly similar to other polling; Anthony Albanese on 28% approval and 45% disapproval, which is quite a bit worse (the most recent Newspoll breakdown from the state had it at 28% and 45%); and Mark McGowan on 67% approval and 24% disapproval. Further findings from the poll reported yesterday showed 31% saying they were worried about the COVID situation in WA, with 31% not worried; 34% confident hospitals can handle the pressure, with 38% not confident; 49% rating petrol prices will be an issue for them at the federal election, with 41% saying they will not be; and 49% holding that Australia should do more to help Ukraine, with 23% thinking otherwise.

• My own poll trend calculations provide the basis of this review of the situation by CGM Communications, which feature more up-to-date state trend measures than those presently to be found on my BludgerTrack display.

• A YouGov survey of 15,000 respondents, commissioned by the Australian Conservation Foundation, found 29% support for the government’s position on net zero carbon emissions by 2050, 41% believed it did not go far enough and 12% felt it went too far. The sample size allowed for breakdowns by electorate, which can be explored in detail on the Age/Herald site

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

871 comments on “Morgan: 56-44 to Labor”

Comments Page 4 of 18
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  1. ‘BK says:
    Friday, March 18, 2022 at 12:02 pm

    Boerwar
    Is Bluey stirring in anticipation of the election?’
    ———————————–
    Bluey reckons that he wonders why it is taking so long for humans to get on to the likes of Morrison, Taylor, Ley, Cash, McKenzie, Robert…
    Bluey reckons that we are going to be back in the Red for Christmas!

  2. Sprocket,

    I reckon UAP have missed a trick with that poster. They should have reversed out the colours and had the submarine as yellow. I believe that promising to buy Australia Yellow Submarines would have gone down a treat.

  3. jt
    It is no good blaming me for Morrison being decisive. Just you wait to see what he’s Santa Morrison is going to do in the Budget. It is going to be Christmas in April.

  4. How do you defend accusations (real or imagined) from a dead person? Porter couldn’t do it / nor could the Labor Senators accused of bullying re Kitching.

  5. Boerwar

    Sam Mitchell has the potential to be a very good coach. An important aspect is having the respect of the playing group.

    We will know soon enough how good he is.

  6. Lars Von Trier says:
    Friday, March 18, 2022 at 12:09 pm
    How do you defend accusations (real or imagined) from a dead person? Porter couldn’t do it / nor could the Labor Senators accused of bullying re Kitching.
    ——————–

    How are Libs/nats and their corrupt propaganda media units going to prove she was bullied

    This is why its going to back fire on the lib/nats and their propaganda media units

  7. ItzaDream @ #127 Friday, March 18th, 2022 – 11:34 am

    Josh Butler
    @JoshButler
    Penny Wong, Kristina Keneally & Katy Gallagher statement on Kimberley Kitching: “Given the hurtful statements that continue to be made we feel it necessary to respond. The allegations of bullying are untrue. Other assertions which have been made are similarly inaccurate.”

    (via the guardian)

    Short and sweet and on point.

  8. If this is any where near accurate
    This should put the federal election to rest, Labor reasonable size majority government certain

    Bridie Jabour
    @bkjabour
    · 18m
    The government seems to be floating the policy of idea of giving everyone in Australia $1000 EXCEPT for people on welfare. Honestly boggles the mind how far they can remove themselves from having to encounter the experience of people genuinely struggling

    Talk about class warfare

  9. “ How do you defend accusations (real or imagined) from a dead person? Porter couldn’t do it / nor could the Labor Senators accused of bullying re Kitching.”

    Raff Chiccone, Anthony Byrne and Bill Shorten are very much alive.

    I suspect that whatever constitutes the alleged ‘bullying’ behaviour by the ‘mean girls’ (also known as the Leadership Group) also happened – or not – in front of other witnesses within caucus and perhaps in front of staffers.

    Contra the situation with the alleged sexual assault. Which should come as no surprise because a common feature of such abuse is that it happens in private.

    You low rent trolling flog.

  10. How are Libs/nats and their corrupt propaganda media units going to prove she was bullied

    ___________________________________________

    Just ask Nicole Flint. She’s an expert on bullying. She’ll tell you it’s all organised out of Albanese’s office against her. She may be leaving Parliament, but she is the worst example of what the Liberal Party prizes in their women.

  11. Wong, Kenneally, and Gallagher have been put into a really difficult spot right now, as any attempt to defend themselves and properly explain their side of the story basically requires them to publicly criticize a recently deceased colleague.

    I would note that – in contrast to, say, the allegations by Julia Banks or the various Liberal staffers who have come forward, we still don’t seem to be have been given any actual examples of the bullying that took place, apart from one outburst from Penny Wong that she then apologised for and that really seemed very mild compared to some of the accounts I’ve read of party-room meetings.

    You’d have to wonder how Kitching herself would feel about her death being used in this way.

  12. Now let’s talk about where the real bullying of women occurs at the very top – demonstrably – by the menacing wallpaper and the office it runs.

  13. Another important point is that whatever the relationship between Kitching and PW and KK they had nothing to do with her pre-selection issues.

  14. How are Libs/nats and their corrupt propaganda media units going to prove she was bullied

    This is why its going to back fire on the lib/nats and their propaganda media units

    At the end of the day I don’t think it will make a scrap of difference one way or the other. It’s a beat up and most people would not spend a moment of their day thinking about it. There are far more important issues that are going to decide the outcome of this election.

  15. Just saw that others had posted Penny Wong’s statement so deleted my tweet. Gives me room for another post tho

    victoria
    We switched over to the footy 1/2 way through the last quarter. What a bit of excitement that was. I haven’t feared Carlton for ages but this year looks as tho it will be good for you – except v the Swannies lol

  16. ItzaDream @ #134 Friday, March 18th, 2022 – 11:48 am

    John Menadue continues with several contributors on Ukraine; here’s a couple:

    Patrick Cockburn (author, in a reprint from counterpunch)-

    The problem is that the hatreds generated by war gain momentum during the conflict and do not have a reverse emotional gear. Collective punishments against Russians are likely to elicit a collective response. The British prime minister Lloyd George had a prescient idea a few months after the Armistice in 1918 about the likely consequences of maintaining economic sanctions as a form of pressure against Germany.

    He told the Supreme War Council and the Allies that “the memories of starvation might one day turn against them […] The Allies were sowing hatred for the future […] not for the Germans, but for themselves.”

    https://johnmenadue.com/demonizing-russia-risks-prolonging-the-war/

    Menadue and guest writers –

    Russian and Ukrainian negotiators are reportedly moving in the direction of a 15-point peace deal that would involve Kyiv formally renouncing its ambition to join NATO and accepting “limits on its armed forces” in exchange for a cease-fire, the withdrawal of Moscow’s troops, and security guarantees from the West.

    According to FT, in addition to Ukraine dropping its goal of NATO membership—which is enshrined in the country’s constitution—the diplomatic settlement would involve Kyiv promising “not to host foreign military bases or weaponry in exchange for protection from allies such as the U.S., U.K., and Turkey.”

    https://johnmenadue.com/jake-johnson-ukrainerussia-reportedly-making-significant-progress-on-a-15-point-peace-deal/

    Why do any of this when Ukraine is winning the war?

    Another revisionist mistake that lingers is to understate Russia’s capabilities vis-à-vis the West. The New Left authors may have been correct that the Soviets were weakened after World War II, but they gloss over their advantages—the Russians not only outnumbered the West in terms of conventional military forces in Europe (and eventually ended the U.S. nuclear monopoly), but also enjoyed significant recognition throughout Europe and the rest of the world for communism’s role in defeating fascism. Of course, Moscow today neither controls half of Europe nor professes an ideology with widespread international prestige (which is likely why former Cold Warriors like George Kennan criticized NATO’s incorporation of former Soviet satellites). Nonetheless, there are still good reasons to be skeptical when the Kremlin plays the “encirclement” card. As Chris Miller points out, given that the actual balance of power in Europe started to shift towards Russia in the 2000s in terms of military resources, conventional forces, and nuclear weapons, Putin’s actual frustration with potential Ukrainian membership in NATO is that “the West has made it more costly for Russia to march on its neighbors.”

    https://www.thebulwark.com/blaming-america-for-russian-aggression-then-and-now/

  17. Another important point

    The lib/nats and their corrupt propaganda media units doing their best to get the focus off the incompetence of Morrison and his cronies on their non action on another natural disaster Qld and NSW floods

  18. BH

    The game was really good last night.

    I’m hoping that Carlton aren’t just a one hit wonder this year! Lol.

    They have been a basket case for years.

  19. TPOF says:
    Friday, March 18, 2022 at 12:34 pm

    Just ask Nicole Flint. She’s an expert on bullying. She’ll tell you it’s all organised out of Albanese’s office against her. She may be leaving Parliament, but she is the worst example of what the Liberal Party prizes in their women.

    —————————-

    Agree with you

  20. “I also think the French might also be similarly placed (given that the Suffren class build starts to wind down by 2025 and their next generation SSBN program is only going to be laid down at a drum beat of on boat per every 5 years).”

    AE….

    Change the Govt and they may be amenable to that idea. 🙂 And, i know it may not be a widely held opinion, but i really think the French boats are a better fit for Australia’s strategic capability needs looking forward that the US /UK offerings. Also, i think the logistics of running and crewing them will be much easier to deal with over time.

  21. I don’t think much of Julia Banks. She’s a destabilizer and a traitor. She belongs in the dustbin with the other Julia.

    Kimberley Kitching, had she lived, had the potential to become Australia’s Josephine Manchin, potentially sparing the country from the worst legislations of a Labor government, perhaps even being amenable to switch parties, but that would of been a moot point, as Albanese will never win the election!

  22. Using the death of a colleague to score factional points is as about as low as you can go. Can’t even wait until after the funeral. We all know who is backgrounding the journo trolls. Get rid of them.

  23. The Lib/nats and their corrupt propaganda media classwarfare is going to be the big talk , from the budget to the upcoming federal election

    Labor will get the advantage ,

  24. Listening to the radio this morning and heard Marles fumbling and bumbling on Ch9 re Kitching.

    Terrible communicator. Get him away from the microphone.

  25. After this assault with personal smear propaganda

    Just imagine the panic and absolute terror from the Lib/nats corrupt media propaganda units, Newsltd and others

    If Albanese goes to the lead in their hypothetical preferred pm poll

  26. Rex Douglas says:
    Friday, March 18, 2022 at 12:58 pm

    Listening to the radio this morning and heard Marles fumbling and bumbling on Ch9 re Kitching.

    Terrible communicator. Get him away from the microphone.
    ______________
    It would have been Marles who had Kitching’s preselection in his hands. No doubt it’s difficult for him considering what happened.

  27. C@tmomma @ #173 Friday, March 18th, 2022 – 12:41 pm

    Itza

    https://johnmenadue.com/demonizing-russia-risks-prolonging-the-war/

    https://johnmenadue.com/jake-johnson-ukrainerussia-reportedly-making-significant-progress-on-a-15-point-peace-deal/

    Why do any of this when Ukraine is winning the war?

    Another revisionist mistake that lingers is to understate Russia’s capabilities vis-à-vis the West. The New Left authors may have been correct that the Soviets were weakened after World War II, but they gloss over their advantages—the Russians not only outnumbered the West in terms of conventional military forces in Europe (and eventually ended the U.S. nuclear monopoly), but also enjoyed significant recognition throughout Europe and the rest of the world for communism’s role in defeating fascism. Of course, Moscow today neither controls half of Europe nor professes an ideology with widespread international prestige (which is likely why former Cold Warriors like George Kennan criticized NATO’s incorporation of former Soviet satellites). Nonetheless, there are still good reasons to be skeptical when the Kremlin plays the “encirclement” card. As Chris Miller points out, given that the actual balance of power in Europe started to shift towards Russia in the 2000s in terms of military resources, conventional forces, and nuclear weapons, Putin’s actual frustration with potential Ukrainian membership in NATO is that “the West has made it more costly for Russia to march on its neighbors.”

    https://www.thebulwark.com/blaming-america-for-russian-aggression-then-and-now/

    I’ve yet to listen to that C@t, but I will. (nb poroti put a rider on it)

    re my first link – that’s about after the war in won

    re my second link – that’s about negotiations to end to war. Someone saying they are winning the war doesn’t mean stop negotiations … to *end the war*. The Ukrainians wont negotiations. They want to end the war. Winning ain’t won till it’s won.

  28. I gotta say the Melbourne CBD is feeling like it’s old self. I can see why.

    ————

    Share
    International students are flocking back to Melbourne after a two-year hiatus, filling the city’s student accommodation towers, including one of the tallest in the world.
    The tower, fund manager Cedar Pacific’s 52-level high rise at 480 Elizabeth Street in the Melbourne CBD, opened officially on Thursday and already has hit over 75 per cent occupancy.

  29. Hey, be kind to LvT, Nostro, Nath, Taylormade………… They will serve a useful function in the weeks ahead of being good indicators of the changing levels of fear and stupid among the coalition crew out there. 🙂

  30. If there was any chance that Labor would get damage , Morrison has once again missed the boat by not calling the federal election now

  31. So, the specific interaction between Senators Wong and Kitching occurred TWO YEARS ago? (According to the Statement.) Wong offered an apology and had the understanding it was accepted?

    So, we have media conspirators talking to each other about something that was apparently resolved?

    There’s a rat to be smelled here – probably not in the Wong/Keneally/Gallagher ranks…

    Either factional manoeuvring or media fulfilling their requirement to attack Labor. Or both.

  32. Supply needs to be passed before an election can be called. GG likely wouldn’t agree to an election without it or the guarantee the Parlt back before the end of June.

  33. “Morrison has once again missed the boat by not calling the federal election now”

    The way things are coming together??

    If the Libs do well in SA then expect the Federal date to be set next week.

    If not, for a 6 week campaign period before the 21st May it will have to be Sat the week after??

    Will they want the bad look of hanging on as long as possible?? They really dont have many good choices here.

  34. @swrighteconomy
    Govt new talking point – a person earning $90k now is $50 a week better off than when Coalition came to office. Time to unpick this – assumes a person’s wage hasn’t grown since 2013, which means in real terms they’ve gone backwards 16.6% … (a thread)
    8:03 AM · Mar 17, 2022

    Josh always spinning. There must be many not earning $90K and going even further backwards.

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