The fortnightly Roy Morgan federal poll had Labor leading 56-44, in from 56.5-43.5 last time. The primary votes were Coalition 33.5% (down half), Labor 37% (down half), Greens 11.5% (steady), One Nation 3% (down half) and United Australia Party 1% (steady).
The state breakdowns have Labor leading 56.6-43.5 in New South Wales (out from 56-44, a swing of around 9%), 60-40 in Victoria (in from 63.5-36.5, a swing of around 7%), 53-47 in Western Australia (out from 52-48, a swing of around 8.5%), 54.5-45.5 in South Australia (out from 52.5-47.5, a swing of around 4%) and 66.5-33.5 from the small sample in Tasmania (a swing of 10.5%), with the Coalition leading 52-48 in Queensland (a swing to Labor of around 6.5%).
The poll was conducted Thursday, March 3 to Sunday, March 13 from a sample of 1947.
Other poll snippets:
• The West Australian has continued to eke out results of its Utting Research poll, encompassing 750 respondents in the seats of Tangney, Hasluck, Pearce and Swan, from which the voting intention findings were covered here. Leadership ratings from the poll show Scott Morrison on 42% approval and 43% disapproval, which is broadly similar to other polling; Anthony Albanese on 28% approval and 45% disapproval, which is quite a bit worse (the most recent Newspoll breakdown from the state had it at 28% and 45%); and Mark McGowan on 67% approval and 24% disapproval. Further findings from the poll reported yesterday showed 31% saying they were worried about the COVID situation in WA, with 31% not worried; 34% confident hospitals can handle the pressure, with 38% not confident; 49% rating petrol prices will be an issue for them at the federal election, with 41% saying they will not be; and 49% holding that Australia should do more to help Ukraine, with 23% thinking otherwise.
• My own poll trend calculations provide the basis of this review of the situation by CGM Communications, which feature more up-to-date state trend measures than those presently to be found on my BludgerTrack display.
• A YouGov survey of 15,000 respondents, commissioned by the Australian Conservation Foundation, found 29% support for the government’s position on net zero carbon emissions by 2050, 41% believed it did not go far enough and 12% felt it went too far. The sample size allowed for breakdowns by electorate, which can be explored in detail on the Age/Herald site
Bludging @ #92 Friday, March 18th, 2022 – 10:59 am
On this we agree.
On this we differ.
Victoria says:
Friday, March 18, 2022 at 11:01 am
Pi
There is that. Shorten appeared to be in shock when he was interviewed the following morning.
Must be very severe shock….somehow it’s brought about the daily publication of texts and other lamentations by people who should know much better.
Kitching has passed away. Shorten is now burying himself too.
Absolutely nobody in the media has done one single thing remotely like what you said they were going to do.
If anyone here has the ear of ALP strategists, please, please point out Clive’s stupid (Soviet) submarine image.
Not because its stupid (it is.) Not because its impossible (acquiring credible subs immediately is.)
But because Clive has chosen to use a Russian sub image. If he’s prepared to consider paying serious money to Putin for (used & ancient!) subs, how many other ways is he prepared to sell this nation out?
We can never trust Clive’s UAP again.
Use these lines repeatedly, especially in regional Qld.
It’s like something that happened to me 5 years ago. A right wing (extended!) family member visited the US in late 2016 and brought back one of Trump’s MAGA hats as Christmas ‘gift’ for me.
Within 5 minutes of unwrapping it, I asked ‘I wonder where this was made?’ Sure enough, China. Yet lots of working-class people in states like Pennsylvania bought Trump’s lie that he’d bring their jobs back.
One as pect of the Hilary campaign failure was the failure to attack The Hat That China Made. Hilary should have displayed one on stag at every rally etc etc. The Hat should have been made into a symbol of Trump’s betrayal of American workers. The Hat should have been made unwearable. And if Trump got a new shipment ‘made in USA’ – ‘he had to be embarrassed into doing the right thing by American workers.’ The Hat should have been the gift that kept on giving.
Same with Clive’s Putin-sub T-shirt.
Way too much time and energy has been devoted to this issue here and ,frankly, everywhere else.
There’s clearly raw emotions leading to attempted score settling. Politics has always been a hideously toxic work environment – people disagree and have personality clashes in any workplace. What is especially terrible is the person in question cannot speak for themselves and those “accused” are not able to refute claims without looking like callous monsters, further feeding the story.
But again, I expect this issue will shift from a “news” fixation, to a “commentary”, to an “opinion” piece over the next little while as the Budget and campaign kick off in earnest.
Player One says:
Friday, March 18, 2022 at 11:05 am
Bludging @ #92 Friday, March 18th, 2022 – 10:59 am
The electorate have the choice – vote for more the same or vote for change.
On this we agree.
If they opt for change, they will elect a Labor government and they will demolish what remains of the Liberals, who are without any doubt completely incapable of running the country.
On this we differ.
Of the many possible results in the election, one thing will not happen: the election of a Parliament of x-benchers. Labor will almost certainly emerge as the largest party, probably with a substantial majority.
The Liberals face catastrophe. It’s possible, if the Lite are sufficiently effective in their urban target seats, that the Nationals will emerge as the largest non-Labor Party.
That would be fun. Not.
BREAKING: The Australian Government has sanctioned the two Russian oligarchs, Oleg Deripaska and Viktor Vekselberg, who have business interests in the Australian resources sector. They were initially left off the official sanctions list.
People (notably a regrettable former Liberal Defence minister) joke about the Collins Class submarines. They were poorly contracted by the clods in the defence department, and had some teething issues. However once fixed they were excellent quality boats, and proved that Australian shipyards, using Australian steel, can make every part of an SSN except the nuclear reactor (and combat system).
Anyone familiar with the painfull story of how hard it was for the RAN to maintain here the last lot of overseas built subs we bought (UK Oberons) would know that believing you can buy and operate nuclear submarines without knowing how to build them is the folly. Literally no nation is doing that.
Best case, Australia should agree to a deal where either USA or UK can build the first 2 SSNs for the RAN in their yards, then an identical following six or eight are built here.
Nobody here has the ear of ALP strategists.
Or at least I hope not
Andrew_Earlwood:
You have to remember that Dutton’s idea of “start” is “hold a ribbon-cutting ceremony”.
@Itep – thanks be.
“Does Shorten ‘need to spend more time with his family?’”
Possibly but Nath needs to spend more time with other people.
As Putin clamps down on decadent Western internet corruption, behind the razored eyebrows, the collagened cheeks, the chiselled chins and the drowning trout lips, even Russian Instagram influencers have feelings…
https://youtu.be/EfsK1N97n0I
Poor darlings. Their hearts are broken.
Come on Nick!
Holdenhillbilly says: “The Australian Government has sanctioned the two Russian oligarchs, Oleg Deripaska and Viktor Vekselberg, who have business interests in the Australian resources sector. They were initially left off the official sanctions list.”
Now the question should be “who made the decision to leave Oleg Deripaska and Viktor Vekselberg off the sanction list?”
And did anyone directly or indirectly interfere with that decision.
Getting close to the big guys isnt enough anymore Nick. Focus and win the bl@@dy match.
ALP people overreacting to media coverage.
Its good the media are talking about it and Albo should be showing how he is different to Morrison.
ltep @ #109 Friday, March 18th, 2022 – 10:41 am
Mike Tyson style?
Interesting parallels between the Kitching and Christian Porter cases IMO.
Labor just need to keep pointing out that, they get elected at the upcoming federal elections
Politics will be different and the independent national integrity commission will get started on making the political system cleaner
@Snappy Tom
Problem is that Clive isn’t Labor’s big opponent. All that gigantic media spend has gotten him is 3% of the vote, comprised almost solely of anti-vaxx nutters, and I expect a clear majority of Australians want to see and hear of him as little as possible. No point in giving him air time.
Labor wants Morrison’s failures front and centre. It does not want distractions from that. Dealing with the UAP at all is a distraction
Also your presumption that Labor has any significant influence on the MSM is optimistic, as their increasingly ghoulish behavour re Kitching to the exclusion of anything else domestic demonstrates.
If by “parallel” you mean ‘completely different’, then yes, interesting.
If you explained what they were, perhaps I might be convinced that this wasn’t low-grade trolling.
Bushfire Bill
Been that way for a while. Waay back around 2010-11 I remember an RN program interviewing someone about ‘the media’ . The only thing I can remember about the interview was a comment the ‘expert’ being interviewed made. He said that although The Australian newspaper has a small share of the market it ‘sets 70% of the day’s agenda for the media’ . That was all MSM .
The number was over 70% but I cannot remember exactly so that’s a minimum.
Lars Von Trier says:
Friday, March 18, 2022 at 11:25 am
Interesting parallels between the Kitching and Christian Porter cases IMO.
——-
Didn’t Malcolm Turnbull have a theory , about what caused the death of the alleged Victim
Josh Butler
@JoshButler
Penny Wong, Kristina Keneally & Katy Gallagher statement on Kimberley Kitching: “Given the hurtful statements that continue to be made we feel it necessary to respond. The allegations of bullying are untrue. Other assertions which have been made are similarly inaccurate.”
(via the guardian)
“Disturbing parallels between the Brittany Higgins and Christian Porter cases IMO.”
Fixed.
Socrates at 10:48 am
Keep a bag of salt handy when listening to the podcast that the founder and ‘editor at large’ of The Bulwark is good ol’ Bill Kristol.
Bluey is stirring. FFS. He has to cause his pool is bleaching. Again.
Superficially, maybe, as we can never hear Kitching’s story first-hand.
But apart from that – unless you’re alleging that Kitching took her own life after being sexually assaulted – there’s not that many similarities.
Sore losers in preselection contests are a dime a dozen. Nobody has a right to a permanent parliamentary seat. Just because they are female it doesn’t mean any discipline they were subjected to (but interpreted as bullying) was misogynistic in origin. The vast majority of failed preselection candidates do not kill themselves, and it seems neither did Kitching.
Elsewhere, in NSW, a sense of entitlement to seats within the Liberal Party has seen open warfare in the ranks that has spilled over into multiple court cases. And it’s still not resolved!
These intra-party shitfights are pretty common around election time, and bear little similarity, either in gravity or nature, to the facts in the Porter case.
Especially Oleg Derapaska. How can the govt have left him off the list.
He should have been the first to be sanctioned.
John Menadue continues with several contributors on Ukraine; here’s a couple:
Patrick Cockburn (author, in a reprint from counterpunch)-
https://johnmenadue.com/demonizing-russia-risks-prolonging-the-war/
Menadue and guest writers –
https://johnmenadue.com/jake-johnson-ukrainerussia-reportedly-making-significant-progress-on-a-15-point-peace-deal/
Bluey reckons it does not matter where the truth lies in relation to Kitching. Controlling the agenda is the thing.
This week Morrison has been decisive on floods, telling China to go and get fucked and knocking a couple of oligarchs off Australia’s favoured fossileer list. Da, da, da!
Albanese has been grappling with sordid gossip about ‘mean’ girls.
A rare ‘good’ week for Morrison.
The FBI actually did a raid on Oleg derapaska’s US residence late last year.
Boerwar
The footy season has started. And here in Melbourne town the main stories revolve around the journo who had a run in with Western Bulldogs coach.
And in a twist, the journo has been stood down from fox sports due to leaks of him making misogynist comments regarding a female colleague.
And the fact that Carlton beat Richmond for the first time in round one in a decade.
Lol!
I smell a rat, and it’s name is “Angus”.
BB
You could be right.
Surely Tucker Carlson is smart enough to know which way the wind is now blowing. Sheesh……..
Acyn
@Acyn
· 7m
Tucker: McCaul has told a number of people that this show is an organ of Russian disinformation… That is not fine. That is slander… So you have to ask yourself why are so many Republicans suddenly talking like Joe Biden?
Victoria
The Mighty Hawks at 18th and a first draft pick this year?
Funny that, but I think Morrison has been typically indecisive on floods, grappling (even) with clumsy decisions on financial aid and welfare, whereas Albanese has acquitted himself with quiet aplomb on matters of the party room.
Boerwar
Hawthorn aren’t looking too good. But I don’t think they are that bad. Lol!
I
30,000 additional people are in line for an extra $2,000 as a result of Morrison’s decisive decision yesterday.
Boerwar
Is Bluey stirring in anticipation of the election?
Boerwar @ #143 Friday, March 18th, 2022 – 12:02 pm
and a NSW Liberal resigned.
@Socrates:
“Best case, Australia should agree to a deal where either USA or UK can build the first 2 SSNs for the RAN in their yards, then an identical following six or eight are built here.”
A point of order, kind Sir!
Britain is incapable of building any extra subs at their sub building facility for the rest of this decade, due to (i) the winding up of the Astute class program over the next few years and (ii) (especially) the ramping up of the Dreadnaught SSBN build program over the same period. By 2026 the Brits will have 4 Dreadnaughts under construction simultaneously. By 2030 they need to starting the preparation work for the replacement for the Astutes – the SS(R)N program.
The Americans MIGHT be able to build us a couple of SSNs later this decade – and another two early next decade – leaving us to build 4-6 starting from te middle of next decade. I actually think that’s what Dutton is aiming for. In my view that possibility is the only way the AUKUS deal deliverers enough Subs in time to replace the Collins in time so that the capability gap will be minimised.
Of course, outside AUKUS, it’s probable that France could deliver the same deal (plus also allow us to build 4-6 Attack Class SSKs in the interim (ie. between 2024-36) – which IMO would be the ideal outcome.
Who did the Russians transfer their stakes in Australian industries to before sanctions were imposed?
V
The general aim should be to get rid of Mitchell and get a real coach, to lose every game, come 18th, and to put minutes into anyone under the age of 20.
‘Superficially, maybe, as we can never hear Kitching’s story first-hand. ‘
BB
I heard on the radio this week , probably ABC somewhere, that a couple of journos are writing a book about Kimberley Kitching and had several stories already in hand from her . I got the impression that one was Sam Maiden but couldn’t pick up the other.
Katherine Murphy said yesterday that there are 2 sides to the story so perhaps its good that the 3 Senators have put out a statement today. Who would envy the life of a pollie!! Not me.
I dont think Nato or the US want to be guarantor of Ukraine’s security at all. Russia will destabilise Ukraine at every opportunity, hope for (and incite and covertly support) internal civil uprising and leave the US to deal with the mess. Assuming the negotiations are actually serious and not a delay or distraction, the requirement for Ukraine to reduce its military, its independent means at securing its own sovereignty both from internal and external threats, in exchange for some US or Turkish (?!) protection is a wolf in wolf clothing.