Utting Research: 10% swing to Labor in WA marginals

Two sets of polling data suggest Labor is set to bag three if not four Liberal-held seats in Western Australia.

The first bit of poll news to relate involves YouGov’s rather remarkable result ahead of Saturday’s South Australian state election, which you can read about in the post below. The bad polling news for the conservative side of politics doesn’t end there:

• The West Australian today has seat polls from the Liberals’ four most marginal seats in Western Australia, conducted Friday to Monday from a sample size of 750. Given the fairly small sample size, it would only seem safe to pool the results and tally up the overall swings. Labor holds a lead across the four seats of 54-46 in the poll compared with a post-redistribution average of 56.1-43.9, suggesting Labor would comfortably win Swan (margin 3.3%), Pearce (5.5%) and Hasluck (5.9%), and be in the hunt for Tangney (9.8%). The average primary votes in the poll are Liberal 35.9% (down 10.2%), Labor 42.4% (up 11.8%), Greens 6.5% (down 4.4%), One Nation 4.0% (down 0.5%) and United Australia Party 3.2%. The West Australian’s report does break down the numbers, which for what they’re worth have it at 50-50 in Tangney, with Labor leading 52-48 in Hasluck, 55-45 in Pearce and 59-41 in Swan. Primary votes are also included in the report, if you can access it.

• The West Australian also reported yesterday that a poll commissioned by the Greens in Western Australia and conducted by the Online Research Unit recorded Labor on 42% (up 12.2% on the 2019 election result), the Coalition on 33% (down 12.2%), the Greens on 11% (down 0.6%) and the United Australia Party on 1% (down 1.0%) independents on 9%, leaving 4% to be accounted for by either minor parties or an undecided component. It also had Senate results of Labor 39% (up 11.4%), Coalition 33% (down 9.3%), Greens 12% (down 0.2%), the United Australia Party on 2% (up 0.2%) and independents 11%, leaving 3% unaccounted for. A sample size and field work dates were not provided.

• The Australian yesterday had further results from the weekend Newspoll featuring an occasional exercise measuring respondents’ assessments of the leaders’ characteristics. I tend not to get too excited about these as they generally march in lock-step with the leaders’ overall approval ratings, although there would be some value in assessing the balance of the various results for different leaders over the long term, which is something I never quite find time to do. The latest results find Scott Morrison with a stronger result than Anthony Albanese on “experienced”, which is fairly typical for the incumbent, but losing his advantage on “decisive and strong”, falling further behind on “in touch with the voters” and “likeable”, and continuing to have a problem on “arrogant”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,052 comments on “Utting Research: 10% swing to Labor in WA marginals”

Comments Page 4 of 22
1 … 3 4 5 … 22

  1. Barney

    Thanks for repeating Keating’s point. Here’s my point:

    ‘What’s “creeping” about Eastern European states applying to join NATO? Don’t they have “legitimate security concerns” or do only the views of imperialist countries count?’

  2. Asking the world, I know, but what I wouldn’t give to see West Oz give Canning a caning too! Hastie sits somewhere near the top of my Schadenfreude List of Government Footsoldiers I’d Like to See Go. Matt Canavan and Amanda Stoker in the Qld senate rounding out the top three.

  3. Stoker is #3 on the combined Qld LNP senate ticket, so she’s at risk. Probably will get back in. Canavan is safe as houses unfortunately.

  4. “‘What’s “creeping” about Eastern European states applying to join NATO? Don’t they have “legitimate security concerns” or do only the views of imperialist countries count?’”

    Perhaps try looking at it from Russia’s point of view, who knows how they might react … oh wait!

    For the deeply deeply dumb: that the risk was obvious, highlighted by many and obviously real, does not absolve Russia in anyway, it just also puts a highlight on the morons who ignored wise warnings.

    We seem to have built societies determined to be as stupid as humanly possible.

  5. “Ms Kitching had privately referred to three senior Labor senators – Penny Wong, Kristina Keneally and Katy Gallagher – as “the mean girls”, as reported by The Australian on Wednesday”
    _____________________
    Don’t know a lot about Gallagher but the other 2 does not surprise me at all.

  7. The upside if it splits 3-3 conservative/progressive in Qld is that one of them and Hanson has to miss out. And Newman too. It’s a potential schaedfreude fest!

  8. something like that:

    That contest for the third right-wing spot is a real Sophie’s choice. Stoker, Newman, Hanson, or Palmer. Think I’ll just be exhausting well before I get to any of them.

  9. somethinglikethat @ #153 Wednesday, March 16th, 2022 – 9:12 am

    Barney in Tanjung Bunga says:
    Wednesday, March 16, 2022 at 12:03 pm

    The separation of NATO and Russia would act as a buffer against any tension that might be created by a common boundary.
    —
    1. They already share a common boundary. Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia and Poland all have land borders with Russian territory.
    2. These ‘buffer countries’ as you describe them are entitled to choose whichever alliances they wish. They’re not pawns for some mythical empire making.

    Keating made his point before these countries were bought into NATO.

    Their inclusion was what Keating was warning about.

    There is nothing to stop them having economic ties with western Europe, but direct military ties had the potential to destabilise the region.

    An alliance is a two way agreement, so one side wanting something doesn’t mean it should or will happen. The other party has to agree as well.

  11. Taylormade @ #155 Wednesday, March 16th, 2022 – 12:22 pm

    “Ms Kitching had privately referred to three senior Labor senators – Penny Wong, Kristina Keneally and Katy Gallagher – as “the mean girls”, as reported by The Australian on Wednesday”
    _____________________
    Don’t know a lot about Gallagher but the other 2 does not surprise me at all.

    I think that description is off the mark.

    All are strong and determined, is how I’d describe them.

  13. These latest polls flowing in now suggests a landslide to Labor coming up at the Federal election.

    As much as I’d like a progressive crossbench to have the BoP to break up the fossil fuel cartel, I’m relieved that it seems Morrison’s days seem well and truly numbered.

  15. Nostradamus

    I note that every single poll by every single pollster over the past months has the ALP leading significantly. I’m no expert but either they’re all left-leaning or there may just be an immovable trend happening. There are none so blind as those who will not see.

  19. I just watched the 60 Minutes Albo thingy. I think it went over pretty well. I suppose I would say that but it beat the hell out of Scomo’s effort.

    Gutsy folks, those pollies who caught the train to Kiev.

  20. Taylormade is raising concerns about ALP female MP’s. Fair enough if true.

    I wonder if he could give us an appraisal of the attributes of Michalia (Whiteboards) Cash, or perhaps Amanda (Cashless Debit Card) Stoker, or Linda (Couch Steamcleaner) Reynolds just for starters?

  22. ‘BeaglieBoy says:
    Wednesday, March 16, 2022 at 11:13 am

    Boerwar……I think I agree with you on that type of defence policy. A strong, but not wasteful defence force. A neutral foreign policy, but with strong relations with like minded countries. The only alliance maybe with NZ.’
    —————————-
    Nope. Neutral means neutral. If the En Zedders wish to start defending themselves they can start buying a real defence force.

  23. ‘Granny Anny says:
    Wednesday, March 16, 2022 at 12:43 pm

    Taylormade is raising concerns about ALP female MP’s. Fair enough if true.
    ……………..’
    Meh. Just another bit of the Murdoch filth trying to do the agenda setting thing.

  24. Player Onesays:
    Wednesday, March 16, 2022 at 11:20 am
    Windhover @ #84 Wednesday, March 16th, 2022 – 10:50 am

    Lots of people take to thinking the law is an ass, usually through ignorance.

    So the reason for the decision was that it is too difficult to assess monetary compensation for damage?

    Then the law is indeed an ass.
    …………………………………………………………….
    P1, it is not that assessing monetary compensation might be “difficult”. I specifically posed two questions that a court would need to answer before making the damages assessment.

    My opinion is that those two questions are unanswerable other than as an arbitrary redistribution exercise.

    If you think the two questions are capable of sensible resolution by a court I would be pleased to hear how you think it could be done.

  25. Given what we saw about turning a fragment of an indirect reference by Albo in a speech to ‘Albo wants to be just like Howard’ and all the rest of the history of Murdoch publications, I’m pretty confident in saying whatever skerrick of a fragment of an iota of truth there might be here it has been taken entirely out of context and blown up out of all proportions to diminish Labor’s prospects based on the words of a woman who can no longer clarify what she might have meant.

    And frankly no one outside the Canberra bubble, to quote that great wordsmith ScoMo, knows or cares what it might be about.

  27. This is the thing… outside of the CPG and PH bubble, there is a self-perpetuating cycle of validating importance to trivial things. Why do they think QT matters a bit? The last time anything in QT mattered for more than five mins? Probably Gillard’s misogyny speech in OCTOBER 2012 (even that was technically a SSO debate) With respect to the late Senator, even I had to look up what Kimberly Kitching looked like.

    This is all self-serving navel-gazing and doesn’t actually matter to much to anyone who isn’t already extremely invested.

  29. Windhover @ #174 Wednesday, March 16th, 2022 – 12:48 pm

    Player Onesays:
    Wednesday, March 16, 2022 at 11:20 am
    Windhover @ #84 Wednesday, March 16th, 2022 – 10:50 am

    Lots of people take to thinking the law is an ass, usually through ignorance.

    So the reason for the decision was that it is too difficult to assess monetary compensation for damage?

    Then the law is indeed an ass.
    …………………………………………………………….
    P1, it is not that assessing monetary compensation might be “difficult”. I specifically posed two questions that a court would need to answer before making the damages assessment.

    My opinion is that those two questions are unanswerable other than as an arbitrary redistribution exercise.

    If you think the two questions are capable of sensible resolution by a court I would be pleased to hear how you think it could be done.

    Easy. Stop thinking that money is the only consideration.

  30. It’s kind of interesting how some of the left and (far) right are self-soothing at the idea of the polls not only being wrong but VERY wrong.

    It is interesting while Morgan got it wrong, as did everyone, they were certainly much less bullish on Labor than the others.

  33. This is the thing… outside of the CPG and PH bubble, there is a self-perpetuating cycle of validating importance to trivial things. Why do they think QT matters a bit? The last time anything in QT mattered for more than five mins? Probably Gillard’s misogyny speech in OCTOBER 2012 (even that was technically a SSO debate) With respect to the late Senator, even I had to look up what Kimberly Kitching looked like.

    This is all self-serving navel-gazing and doesn’t actually matter to much to anyone who isn’t already extremely invested.
    —–
    Strongly agreed. Its annoying when political journalists get wound up in their little rituals, or indeed their own importance more generally.

  35. It’s kind of interesting how some of the left and (far) right are self-soothing at the idea of the polls not only being wrong but VERY wrong.

    It is interesting while Morgan got it wrong, as did everyone, they were certainly much less bullish on Labor than the others.

    Nostradamas’ commentary is seriously reminiscent of the extreme copium we’d often see from the Labor side here during 2012 and 2013. Wonder when he’ll start saying “the sun is still shining” and “slowly, slowly, catchee Albo.”

  36. Taylormade @ #156 Wednesday, March 16th, 2022 – 12:22 pm

    “Ms Kitching had privately referred to three senior Labor senators – Penny Wong, Kristina Keneally and Katy Gallagher – as “the mean girls”, as reported by The Australian on Wednesday”
    _____________________
    Don’t know a lot about Gallagher but the other 2 does not surprise me at all.

    Says a Liberal useful idiot from Victoria who knows neither and is only present to throw stones from his glass house.

    I happen to know both the women he purports to cast judgement about and I would hardly call them ‘mean’. Firm but fair female warriors for the Labor cause is more like it.

  37. Guy Rundle provides some interesting background on Kitching in Crikey today, interesting at least to people not up to speed on Victorian Labor factions.

    In situations like these I like to look at who is firing the bullets.

    Being criticised by the likes of Sharri Markson and other Murdoch hacks is almost a badge of honour in my book.

  38. Taylormade tried to imply critisism of female ALP politicians because of something written in the Australian newspaper of all places.

    When asked to comment about female Liberal politicians, he disappears.

    Let’s think about one of them; Reynolds. Whoever heard of a couch being “steam cleaned”? Well, apparently heat and humidity destroys DNA. DNA is pretty conclusive evidence in sexual assault cases. I wonder why someone would want to do that?

  40. Another poll failure is obviously quite possible, but it’s important to remember there’s a reason 2019 was such a shock: opinion polling in Australia these days is typically quite close to the mark.

    Also, there’s always the chance the polls are wrong in the other direction this time! For what it’s worth, the polling in QLD 2020 and WA 2021 both underestimated the Labor vote, albiet not by a lot.

  41. Cronus at 10.05am

    “It really is time the media, on a daily basis with facts and statistics, called out the lies and myths about the Coalition being better economic managers. It’s simply untrue and voters deserve better from the fourth estate. Failure to do this is simply aiding and abetting the Coalition’s lies.”

    Let’s be clear. The mainstream media are THERE to aid and abet the Coalition. They had ample opportunity to call Morrison out during the previous election campaign and refused. They’ll do the same this time around (they’ve already started) because either the journalists or their bosses or both support the Coalition.

    We can reduce our anxiety level by assuming all media are engaged in an anti-Labor conspiracy, then be pleasantly surprised on the rare occasions when this isn’t the case.

  44. I realise this is about the SA election but I think it is significant for Federal politics.

    Three days out from the SA state election, with Liberal Premier Steve Marshall fighting for his political life both as premier and for his own seat, he enlists the help of John Howard, not PM Scott Morrison. Given Morrison’s treatment of Marshall on his last trip to SA I see this as entirely rational by Marshall.

    But what does it say about Morrison? I think it says the Liberals in SA now see PM Scott Morrison as un-sellable to voters.
    https://indaily.com.au/news/2022/03/16/howard-spruiks-marshall-as-libs-face-election-headwind/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=InDaily%20Lunchtime%20%2016%20March%202022&utm_content=InDaily%20Lunchtime%20%2016%20March%202022+CID_fd9def39235e10ed31ce4d3e59157f05&utm_source=EDM

  45. Morgan have Labor’s PV at 38% or so. Newspoll compute 41-42%. Substantial difference. Utting has 42% in WA.

    If Morgan are correct, the election result will be historically unusual. If the others are correct the Labor will win easily.

    The Greens look likely to get 8%, or maybe slightly less. Suppose they get 7.5%, of which 7% will be distributed as prefs. (The votes going to Bandt will not be distributed). Labor should get 85% of the G vote, so about 6% can be added to the Labor PV.

    Of the remaining “other” vote (16% in all), about 6-7% will not be distributed because those primary votes will flow to Indy candidates that finish in the final 2 in the seats in which they stand. So Labor will get a share of the 9-10% that remain. Of course, some of this will never be distributed because they will be votes that are cast in safe LRP or Labor seats. Maybe 7% will be distributed as prefs…maybe less. Suppose Labor get 4% of these 7%.

    Labor’s 2 PP vote will come in somewhere between

    38 + 6 + 4 = 48 (no change)
    And
    42 + 6 + 4 = 52

    The balance 2PP vote will be split between the LRP and the Independents….maybe something like 40-41 to the LRP and 8 or 9 to the Independents.

    Splitting the difference, Labor finish on 50% 2PP…come home as easily the largest party but without majority.

    Of course, if the LRP primary really crashes into the low 30s then Labor will do much better than scraping home. We will soon see. At the moment, it’s line ball for a Labor minority facing a shambolic rabble consisting of the LRP rump and assorted Independents or an emphatic Labor win.

    Allocations of prefs based on past elections will not be much of a guide if 3rd choice candidates do sufficiently well for their votes not to be distributed this time. There seems to be a high chance of this happening.

  46. Granny Anny says:
    Wednesday, March 16, 2022 at 12:43 pm

    Taylormade is raising concerns about ALP female MP’s. Fair enough if true.

    I wonder if he could give us an appraisal of the attributes of Michalia (Whiteboards) Cash, or perhaps Amanda (Cashless Debit Card) Stoker, or Linda (Couch Steamcleaner) Reynolds just for starters?
    —
    Don’t forget those other humanists, Jane Hume, Concetta Fierravanti-Wells and Sarah Henderson.

  47. I said as much this morning, Soc. A popular PM is a bonus in the last week of a state campaign. With Morrison shunted across to WA for the entire week it says everything that isn’t being stated up front.

    But John Howard is the best the SA Liberals can come up with!?! All that says to me is that the Liberals are concentrating on the elderly voters because the younger voters probably wouldn’t recognise him, nor care to.

  49. @Asha – again, good point.

    The big takeaway for me from 2019 is the polling matters less than the vibe. I refute PvO’s assertion there was a big move for change in 2019 – it was my strong reservation, I never felt what I did in 1996, 2007 or 2013. The data said change, the vibe did not. Morrison wasn’t actively disliked, Shorten was. The campaign was almost entirely about Shorten’s agenda, not the Government’s achievements… and Labor was running FROM OPPOSITION on significant tax reform. The polling allowed us to ignore those niggling concerns when, everything except the polling suggested the Government was going to be returned.

    Compare it to now… that’s why I feel the level of confidence I do. *insert standard clauses about things changing*.

    @Blud – I ran my own model – with the RW minors splitting 67% to the Tories, the Greens 80% (probably under-egging) and the non-RW minors/indies 55%-60% to Labor.

    38% ALP PV gets 52% TPP
    40% ALP PV gets 54% TPP
    42% ALP PV gets … well you get my point.

    There is almost no reasonable scenario where the ALP PV is ahead of the LNPs in which they lose. In fact, the LNP would likely need to win the PV by 3-4 to draw it even, unless there is a HUGE surge to the RW indies.

  50. Granny Anny

    Do we know exactly who is making the supposed accusations about the Kitchings scenario, actual names etc? Or is it just some unattributable Lib/media smear campaign?

Comments Page 4 of 22
1 … 3 4 5 … 22

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *