As reported in The Australian, the latest fortnightly Newspoll records no change for either major party on voting intention, with Labor retaining a lead of 55-45 on two-party preferred and 41% to 35% on the primary vote. For the minor parties, the Greens are down a point to 8%, One Nation is steady on 3% and the United Australia Party is down one to 3%, with all others up two to 10%. Anthony Albanese has drawn level with Scott Morrison on preferred prime minister for the first time since Morrison’s post-bushfires nadir in February 2020 at 42-42, after Morrison led 42-40 last time. Morrison’s approval rating is down two to 41% with disapproval steady at 55%, while Anthony Albanese is respectively steady at 44% and down one to 42%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1520.
Scout at 7:48 am
Does it ? It did after all go out and decide it wanted a Bullshit Man government. To drive the lesson home perhaps the ‘country’ needs the full dose of the ‘consequences’ for it’s decision .
Thank you, BK. I am glad that you have been resilient in the face of fire, drought, and the odd bout with the medical industry.
Ah yes – resilience, Boerwar,
Cameron Smith has a one shot lead in the PGA Players Championship with 4 holes to play.
He birdied five of the first six holes in his final round, a par and then three bogies. But he birdied the first four holes on the back nine.
Fellow Australians Jason Day, Marc Leishman and Cam Davis all failed to make the cut.
UK Cartoons:
Canada:
Seems like Morrison’s little inner man is speaking here.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1503461144454963200
Given I was talking about one specific electorate at one specific election then when there were only 4 candidates and the one who “cares most” about the environment gave their preferences at a rate of 40% to the 2 other candidates that have other priorities then I’ll agree that my human emotions at that party can spill over. But given I’m not going to ‘spite my nose’ I’ll still mark them 2nd on my card. Though history says for both parties that is just an exercise of tidying up the accounting.
But have they ? There has been a steady rise since about May 2020 well before ‘The War’ . Current spike looks pretty “on trend” . Note the right axis numbers are $US
https://tradingeconomics.com/australia/gasoline-prices
BeGuiledAgain and PageBoi re EVs
In our household, we didn’t have the financial resources for an EV.
We discovered Toyota Hybrids are now not much more expensive than standard versions of the same model (within $2000 price difference.)
So we traded one vehicle on a new Camry Hybrid and our other vehicle on a used (found a low km one, so plenty of life in the battery) Camry Hybrid. The new Camry averages about 5l/100km, the used one about 6. Between them our fuel consumption has reduced by about 40%.
“Victorian Deputy Premier James Merlino was warned in 2016 about staff shortages at the state’s triple-zero call agency – more than five years before an explosion of call delays was linked to 12 deaths”
_____________________
Disgraceful.
The problem is that too much money went to the Fireys, which meant the rest of the emergency services suffered.
Ukraine topic notwithstanding …
Elon Musk ready to sort Paranoid Putin out in a one-on-one. First light foggy morning at the border …
https://www.news.com.au/technology/online/internet/single-combat-elon-musks-incredible-challenge-to-putin/news-story/9b267ad8fd3a4db167955c87e771b20f
I’ll have what he’s having. And, mind, he’s sent millions of bucks worth of internet satellite technology over to Ukraine.
Snappy Tomsays:
Tuesday, March 15, 2022 at 9:01 am
BeGuiledAgain and PageBoi re EVs
“In our household, we didn’t have the financial resources for an EV.”
If you can wait a little longer cheaper EV’s are coming and they are made in China.
China is the biggest car market in the world and currently 30% of new sales are EV’s.
Companies like BYD will have cars for sale this year and will undercut all those legacy manufacturers.
Confessions at 6am re Sowy Hydro 2.0 cost and schedule blow out…
And this is from the superior economic managers! FFFFFS!!!
I really hate that so many in the electorate believe in Coalition economic management! FFS, people, open your eyes!!!
From a blown out, substandard NBN to Snowy 2.0, they’ve shown incompetence (to name but two). The purchase of land for West Sydney airport from a Liberal donor for 10+ times its market value shows their corruption.
But do an opinion poll, ask ‘which party is better at economic management’ and I just bet most of the punters say ‘Coalition’. FFFFFFFFS!!!
When you’re up against the media conspiracy, how can this narrative be changed?
NSW :
Another six people have died with COVID in the state.
There are 1,032 cases in hospital, 38 of those in ICU. Yesterday, there were 1,005 people in hospital and 47 in ICU.
Today, the state recorded another 10,689 new cases.
………………………………………………………………………………………………………
Victoria :
Four more people have died with COVID in Victoria, with 197 people in hospital and 24 of those in ICU.
The state reported another 7,460 cases and there are 40,403 active cases across Victoria.
Morning all and thanks for the erudite roundup as always BK.
On this:
“The West Australian is teasing with a report that Morisson will commit $4.3 billion to building a dry dock at the Henderson shipyard precinct south of Fremantle as first highlight of his four day visit to WA.”
It is true that for the SSN program to proceed, in fact even for UK and US SSNs to be based in Australia, the HMAS Stirling base and ASC both need to be upgraded to nuclear engineering standards for safety and serviceability reasons. So this should happen. That is simply applying current engineering standards.
But why the secrecy? Those standards are published on websites in UK and USA. Why can’t we see the AUKUS study group’s report on what base upgrades are needed and how much they will cost? Have ANSTO and ARPANSA signed off on this? Process is completely absent. Morrison’s default position is secrecy and lack of accountability.
I wonder if Clems ‘unfortunates’ who live in other states have to wait 15 minutes for someone to answer thier call for an ambulance.
Had to happen
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/mar/15/australian-pms-department-drops-widely-mocked-phallic-womens-network-logo
re: Albo and sports facilities etc.
Hmmm.
A couple of points:
(a) I’d rather see pork barrelling politics called out – and consistently in a sustained way, keep the blowtorch on – whenever anyone does it, and that includes Albo.
(b) The media IS being a bit ridiculous comparing the operation of grants programs of a government with promises of an opposition in what amounts to an election campaign. In government it is reasonable to expect that programs are run in an impartial way with funding decisions made in accordance with well researched PS advice … opposition election promises not so much. Although see (a) above – I’d rather Albo wasn’t doing this at all, and it does muddy attack lines on this awful government’s blatant pork barrelling (“but you are doing it too!” say the media naturally).
(c) We have 3 layers of government. There are legitimate complaints that we are over governed. But regardless of where you stand on that front, the Federal government really should be the last ones going on about sports fields and car parks FFS. Just stop it, everyone. Including Albo.
Mr Shorten promised a million big ones for a rugby club in Maribyrnong last time round.
Taylormade wrote “I wonder if Clems ‘unfortunates’ who live in other states have to wait 15 minutes for someone to answer thier call for an ambulance.”
Clearly you don’t have kids in government schools or rely on public hospitals, or use public transport. You must be walking around with your eyes closed, you right wing tool. The waits are not good, but even our great socialist leader will need to some time to fix all the problems associated with your neo liberal wet dream.
Morning all. Thanks for the neat roundup BK.
On this next chapter in the announcement offensive:
“The West Australian is teasing with a report that Morrison will commit $4.3 billion to building a dry dock at the Henderson shipyard precinct south of Fremantle as first highlight of his four day visit to WA.”
If Morrison is serious about AUKUS then upgrading HMAS Stirling (and ASC Adelaide) to a nuclear engineering standard is essential for safety and operational reasons. So this work is needed; AUKUS can’t begin without it.
But why the secrecy and lack of process? There is no military security reason why this should be secret; the standards can be downloaded off websites. Yet the secrecy means we don’t see the AUKUS working group report. We don’t know any details of the scope, cost or how it will be tendered. Will this work be done properly, or will it be a juicy defence contract given to mates? We don’t know.
As the health and safety of nearby residents, plus national security is at stake, that is not good enough.
Jackol
I’d rather Albo wasn’t doing this at all, and it does muddy attack lines on this awful government’s blatant pork barrelling (“but you are doing it too!” say the media naturally).
________________________________________
And therein lies Labor’s perennial problem with the mainstream media. Even something as old as politics itself – making election promises – becomes unfair cannon fodder for the media when Labor does it.
As noted by you there is a huge difference between making election promises in a campaign (especially by an Opposition) and using the resources of government to make grants of public money that have not been assessed through established channels.
A promise pre-election is public. The electorate can assess whether it is appropriate and the election result provides a mandate. A grant made without scrutiny is just a bribe. The so-called journalists at Nine Entertainment cannot tell the difference (or at least pretend to). And we now know from the ‘lock-out called a strike’ misrepresentation by Bevan Shields that the Nine Entertainment people are just misleading the public.
Snappy Tom @ #662 Tuesday, March 15th, 2022 – 9:11 am
It well behoves Labor to be hammering this point. Not during the campaign, not during a pre-election debate, but every single day. It’s like getting a (insert adjective of choice) stain out; it takes time.
Clem
The waits are not good, but even our great socialist leader will need to some time to fix all the problems associated with your neo liberal wet dream.
________________________________
Kennett and his Liberal successors did to Victorian social services what Russia is doing to Ukraine. It takes almost no time to destroy, but decades to repair and replace.
In the Putin v Musk fisticuffs my moneys on Putin…looks like he does some training and workouts….Elon looking a bit puffy these days…..what happens if our champion loses?….Putin gets to march into Washington?
Anyone mentioned to Taylormade that when NeoLiberal governments privatise services there’s not a damn thing the public can do about problems with those services? Whereas, if a service stays in government hands we can apply pressure to the government to fix it?
Cam Smith has just won $A5.2 million for winning the PGA Players Championship at Ponta Vedra, Florida by one stroke at 13 under par.
Brisbane’s Smith shot a 6 under 66 for his final round, that included four bogies. He started with five birdies in the first six, but then dropped out of contention with three bogies to finish the front nine.
Smith recovered with birdies on the first four holes of the back nine and sealed the win with another birdie on the tricky par-3 island green 17th. A bogey by Smith on the 18th gave runner-up India’s Anirbal Lahiri a chance to birdie and tie, but Lahiri could only manage a par.
Brisbane’s Smith shot a 6 under 66 for his final round
What a devilish win. 😉
Don’t take Biden’s call and now this. The Saudis seemed to believe they know which way the wind is blowing..
.
.
Saudi Arabia Invites China’s Xi to Visit Kingdom Amid Strained U.S. Relations
https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-arabia-invites-chinas-xi-to-visit-kingdom-amid-strained-u-s-relations-11647284211
”
ParkySPsays:
Tuesday, March 15, 2022 at 8:56 am
Given I was talking about one specific electorate at one specific election then when there were only 4 candidates and the one who “cares most” about the environment gave their preferences at a rate of 40% to the 2 other candidates that have other priorities then I’ll agree that my human emotions at that party can spill over. But given I’m not going to ‘spite my nose’ I’ll still mark them 2nd on my card. Though history says for both parties that is just an exercise of tidying up the accounting.
”
Parkysp
You may be hurting about final 40 % preference flow to Nats from Green voters but that is what Green voters wanted to do it. Am I correct in saying that Greens party didn’t hand out preferences paper that reflected those flows.
Recently in NSW council elections, Greens distributed their preference options for Mayoral contest for Byron shire where they preferenced a Nationals member (who contested as independent) above Labor candidate. 🙂
How could we trust this mob to manage what will turn out to be – at least – a $120 billion nuclear submarine build program?
Look at their appalling track record:
The Attack Class conventional submarine program, initially spruiked at $36 billion, in 2016 “constant dollars”, then the Defence Department Secretary gave sworn evidence at the end of 2016 that the cost was $50 billion in “turned out” dollars (taking into account inflation over the life of the build program), with the relevant Admiral chiming in that the $50 billion also included ‘some sustainment costs’, only for the cat to be let out of the bag in late 2019 that ‘surprise’ the figure was $89 billion in turned out dollars, and that included no sustainment costs. Sustainment costs for running our subs (both Collins and ultimately the Attack Class) up until the 2070s was separately estimated to be in the order of $145 billion. Did we ever see a breakdown in costs? Was the new shed that built in Osborne included in any of those figures? The plant and equipment? the necessary training of staff? We were told that the program included a transfer of technology, so that it was a genuine ‘sovereign’ capability. Good. good. But what was the cost of that? In my estimation the unit cost of the Attack Class should have been in the range of $2 billion (ie. slightly less than the nuclear variant) to $2.5 billion in 2016 value “constant dollars” (allowing for the local build margin that the RAND corporation identified with Australian shipbuilding a decade ago). However, as Socrates has pointed out, simply by dividing $90 billion by 12 boats, the unit cost = $7.5 billion a boat. obviously many of the other items I fed listed above are probably included in the $90 billion, but we are none the wiser today as to which ones, or how much they cost. Even when expressed in 2016 constant dollars, the build costs could have averaged over $4 billion, or at least double what would appear to reasonable.
The above matters have been used to justify abandoning the Attack Class, and naval group. They do not. There is a very very strong case to say that the Attack Class and Naval Group are merely scapegoats for a much deeper malaise: – because this government is just as bad when contracting to other suppliers and on other projects. Consider the two biggest examples – drawn from a list of fuck ups as long as your arm:
1. The Future Frigates program originally envisaged 8 replacement ships for the ANZAC class at a total cost of less than $6 billion a decade ago. In 2018 Turnbull contracted with BAE Marine (one of the potential nuclear submarine prime contractors under the AUKUS arrangements) for 9 ships at a cost of $36 billion – apparently because Navy in effect wanted another AWD platform combined with anti submarine warfare (notwithstanding that we actually just had started to received that capability with the Hobart class and had gotten the costs down to an international best practice benchmark of under $2 billion a ship by the time that the third and last ship – HMAS Sydney was deceived in 2020). THAT program has now blown out to $45 billion only 4 years later, AND there are massive programs occasioned by the extra AW and long range strike missile capabilities that have been bolted onto what was even back in 2018 an unproven platform with potential stability issues.
2. Today, it has been revealed that the Snow Hydro 2.0 program has blown out by 500% – from 2 to 10 billion and will be completed up to a decade late. Worse, the government was advised about this years ago.
Worst government ever. An existential risk to Australia if re-elected.
23 putts in final round.
Big money to use on an improved hair cut for Smith and his best mate watching on.
Canavan on what’s in the budget:
(guardian live)
PageBoi says:
Tuesday, March 15, 2022 at 4:14 am
@BeguiledAgain
To answer your question about charging cost. If I arrived at a hotel with 0% battery (which is actually possible as Tesla does have a small ‘reserve’ and at 0% still has maybe 10km range) then if you assume an electricity tariff of 30c/KwH then to charge my model 3’s 60KwH battery would cost $18 – significantly less than ~$100 for a tank of petrol. However the hotel probably has time of use tariff so a significant portion of that charging would be shoulder/off-peak so cost would be more like $12
—————————————————————
Thank you for that excellent analysis. It answers my question perfectly.
I don’t think it makes it any better to make promises of funding for marginal seats in Opposition rather than Government. The Coalition made the argument that their dodgy grants were ‘authorised’ by the election result too.
I really do wonder how many people are aware of promises about cark parks, sports fields etc. in their area. I wouldn’t have a clue about my own area, but I’ve rarely lived in a marginal seat!
@ParkySP
>the one who “cares most” about the environment gave their preferences
This is factually wrong. Voters give their preferences, not candidates.
The abnormally high preference flow to non-labor over Labor in your electorate may be due to a number of factors, and you probably should consider the possibility that it reflects successful efforts by local Labor partisans to antagonise Greens voters more than you appear to be.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #679 Tuesday, March 15th, 2022 – 9:52 am
Mr Albanese said this morning in a withering attack on the coalition’s record.
Worth noting that hotels (and other places with destination charging) don’t currently meter EV charging. The $18 cost is paid by the hotel/included in the cost of the room, just like with the electricity you use running the aircon, watching TV, etc..
Metered charging that isn’t high-voltage DC fast-charging is pretty much unheard of right now. And even some of the fast-charging stations are still free to use.
sprocket_ @ #646 Tuesday, March 15th, 2022 – 7:43 am
Let’s hope he reads your post.
A-E
Most incompetent and corrupt federal government since Federation. Howard the worst prime minister ever because he was effective at getting bad things done. Morrison manages to fuck up even the bad things.
Andrew Earlwood @ 9.52AM
On this we are strongly agreed. I’m glad you take my point on the unit cost of the Attack Class program. The numbers simply don’t add up. I have even constructed my own spreadsheet with typical allowances for forecast inflation and I cannot get from Defence’s claimed FSM current cost to quoted outturn costs.
The secrecy over defence costs is not defensible. It has nothing to do with national security. You can look up the cost of French, RN and USN submarine programs on their parliamentary websites. It is all about avoiding scrutiny. [Speaking of which I found the Barracuda/Suffren SSN costs on the French parliamentary website. Their contract was 10.6 billion Euro in 2021; this included the reactors which represent 15% of the total cost. The design phase was previous but it cost less than 1 billion Euro.]
We still have no breakdown of the Attack Class program costs. However as for the ASC upgrade cost:
“Was the new shed that built in Osborne included in any of those figures?
The answer was “no”. Defence have a separate contract with Laing O’Rorke for $1.2 billion (at last estimate) to upgrade ASC. Most of the work for the Attack construction was done.
There will now be an additional cost to upgrade ASC to a nuclear engineering standard before SSN construction could begin. If the upgrade of Devonport Dock 10 for the Dreadnoughts is anything to go by, that will cost around $2 billion extra.
So yes, the amount Defence are claiming these projects cost is extraordinarily high by world standards. The reported 30% cost premium to get work done in Australia does NOT explain projects costs that are more than double. Is there corruption? Are massive profits being creamed off? Are defence hiding most of the cost of their own bureaucratic overheads within the projects? I don’t know. Nobody can tell, because they don’t publish a breakdown of the cost figures.
Simon says:
Tuesday, March 15, 2022 at 10:14 am
@ParkySP
>the one who “cares most” about the environment gave their preferences
This is factually wrong. Voters give their preferences, not candidates.
The abnormally high preference flow to non-labor over Labor in your electorate may be due to a number of factors, and you probably should consider the possibility that it reflects successful efforts by local Labor partisans to antagonise Greens voters more than you appear to be.
This expression reflects the non-Labor affiliations/identification of most voters in rural electorates. Some are sending their votes via the scenic route to the Right.
A great many voters in rural seats are Labor-phobic. The Greens drive Labor-phobia as well so there is no inconsistency if rural voters favour both the Greens and the reactionaries ahead of Labor. Really, the Greens are just another anti-Labor bus.
The Greens are no longer the only 3rd voice in the forum. They have some serious competition from Palmer, ON and the Lite, and they have been repelling Labor support too. Consequently they now account for only about 1/3 of the Other vote. This is share likely to continue to decline. The context is far less hospitable to the Greens than it has been for many years. Hopefully they will do increasingly poorly and eventually follow the Democrats into the political scrapyard.
This detail stuff isn’t what matters – it’ll distract the media – but the meta is always what matters.
What Albo et al have been doing has been effective at leaning into the meta and mitigating risks posed to shifts in the meta. Constant “withering” attacks wear thin, and people stop listening… keep your powder dry and deploy for maximum effect. One of the reasons Trump won in 2016 was people’s abject frustration with his electoral success despite being an objectively horrible human being leading to attacks a lot of people tuned out.
Albo has learned the lessons of 2019. Labor wins on the vibe, not the detail. It seeks to create as close to a unity ticket on Liberal strengths then amplify the differences on areas you’re seen as strong. Then highlight mismanagement … you don’t need to be withering, just factual. Lean in to the public’s sense the government is not doing its job well and re-enforce it.
While we all think Labor should be up 60-40 based on everything, the reality is they’re not. Labor going perpetually negative (aka withering attacks) will not aid them. They’re at 55-45 2.5 weeks out from the election being called, Albo is level as PPM and has positive approvals. Labor is in a good spot and the Government is panicking.
This isn’t 2019. It’s 2.5 weeks out from the election being called and there doesn’t yet seem to be ANY kind of coherent re-election strategy from the Government or effective attack line against Albanese. Can this change? Sure. Do I expect it to fundamentally change between now and election day? No.
beguiledagain
Was the answer to your no prize quiz on that cartoon a couple of days ago Battleship Potemkin? The Odessa steps scene. 🙂
Hi Socrates:
i dont think I quite ‘take your point’ just yet on unit cost prices and the Attack class program, because I believe that the the true unit costs were only a small part of the overall program cost. I think what has happened is that various players have taken the opportunity to gauge on the ‘extras’: I guess a bit like when I brought my Harley Davison for $24K including on-road charges: by the time I had customised it to my satisfaction I was looking at $35K in total. The actual bike only had a $1K mark up from what the dealer paid for it, but the extras were probably inflated by an order of magnitude.
I have a hunch that Peter Costello, via both of his consultancy firms – ECG Financial and ECG Advisory Solutions – that were engaged to facilitate various aspects of the contract negotiations, together with ScoMo’s best personal mates from the NSW Liberal Party that managed to find their way onto the Attack Class teat, have done VERY well out of this fiasco. This video raises some serious questions about that aspect of the program:
https://youtu.be/a_Y4QQ8Hm3k
I also think that at various stages the shed costs were included in the program cost and perhaps even the contract cost. Despite it being built for ASC by another contractor. The fact remains that the shed was built to Naval Group’s specifications and they were in effect, going to be the sole tenant until 2052. I’ve reviewed and drafted commercial contracts with similar arrangements and believe me – the third party arrangements that are necessary to give effect to the main contract form part of the pre settlement due diligence and the costs are included for that purpose. I’m sure I’ve read stuff to that effect regarding the Attack class program a few years ago and that new shed, but doing a google search a few weeks ago, I drew a blank. Either I’ve misremembered this, or its been scrubbed or simply fallen outside the parameters of my search engine. Who knows. However, any way you look at it the fundamental point remains – all of this should have been set out for public consumption, without having to dig deep on the interwebby (and then still drawing a blank in many cases).
From the annals of “Living With Covid”…
HI and I are on the way driving to Melbourne to see friends there, via Bright.
We’re dropping a car off to one of the grandsons in Bright, do the tourist thing for a few days, then down to Melbourne. So it’s a mini-convoy as far as Bright.
We stayed the first night after leaving Snoozeville in a little town near Canberra called Murrumbateman. Nice place, good pub. Cheap too. After rising, were driving to Gundagai for brekkie.
On the way to Gundagai my mate in Melbourne has called to tell me he’s been PCR tested positive for Covid. Don’t come. He’s pretty sick.
I told HI about my mate when we arrived in Gundagai. Turns out she’s received a call on the way, too. The entire household in Bright has also tested positive.
All this bad news in one benighted hour.
Simon says:
Tuesday, March 15, 2022 at 10:14 am
If the LRP continue to disintegrate we should expect to see the Lite competing for and winning Lib-held seats in the affluent neighbourhoods of the cities. This will eat into Green support in those seats and will also deprive them of possible winnable targets too.
You’d think that if the Lite win well and start to consolidate their support they will run Senate candidates too. Such candidates could attract voting support right across the electorate – support beyond the boundaries of the seats that the Lite might win.
We already know the Greens have profoundly alienated voters in rural and regional seats, and that they have low levels of support in working class and peri-urban seats. Their Labor-hostile campaigning really limits their ability to change this.
So things look somewhat bleak for the Greens at the moment. Disaffection with the Lying Reactionary Party is helping Labor and dissident past supporters of the LRP, and hurting their cadets, the Greens.
Change is certainly occurring in Australia politics. The LRP are dominant in non-Metro domains. Labor and perhaps non-Liberal conservatives are now ascendant in the cities. There’s not much room there for Greens.
The immediate prospects are that Labor will commence the next Parliament with the largest college. Hopefully they will have a majority, even if only a slim one. They will face a Labor-phobic swag of Independents, the LRP rump and a solitary Green.
The Senate will be a miserable chamber for Labor, however. The Labor-hostile/Labor-obstructing majority will be very large.
https://www.news.com.au/national/federal-election/prime-minister-reveals-two-election-priorities-in-pub-test-on-sky-news/news-story/a53d13ea15eebd67cff376f3388fb606
We should be encouraging all of our politicians to be fit and healthy. John Howards morning walks, Abbotts rides/swims, Shortens jogging, etc should be promoted.
@AZ – how utterly pathetic.
Another Morrison lie. I’d reckon he’s in bigger suits than three years ago.
Somebody will be along so in with images to prove it