12:29pm Friday UK Labour has retained Birmingham Erdington at a by-election by a 55.5-36.3 margin over the Conservatives, up from 50-40 at the 2019 election. The Lib Dems and Greens had about 1% each.
Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is an honorary associate at the University of Melbourne. His work on electoral matters for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.
Vladimir Putin began Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24. Historically, attempts to conquer sovereign countries have not been unusual. Alexander the Great and Napoleon are still famed as conquerors. The Roman empire did much conquering, and European colonial powers were very cruel to native populations. The UK’s Queen Elizabeth is the descendant of William the Conqueror, who conquered England in 1066.
Occasionally invasions by more powerful countries are repelled. Two examples from the UK are Scotland repelling England in the 14th century, and the UK repelling the Nazis early in WW2. But in most cases, the only feasible protection for smaller countries is to be allied to bigger powers that will fight if the smaller ones are invaded.
Putin’s gamble was that the West would not send major military equipment, such as tanks, warships and aircraft, to support Ukraine. Without this support, it is likely that weight of numbers will eventually allow Russia to conquer Ukraine. While sanctions will damage the Russian economy, they won’t stop the Russian tanks or artillery. In a drawn-out invasion, civilian casualties will be high.
I am sceptical that Ukraine will continue to resist if conquered. Tyrannical regimes are effective at brutally suppressing dissent. There isn’t news anymore about Chechnya, which rebelled against Russia in the 2000s.
The polling is not like the reaction to the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks. The only leader who has received a massive jump is Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, whose approval surged 59 points since December to 91%.
US: Biden’s ratings down, 62% say invasion wouldn’t have occurred under Trump
In the FiveThirtyEight poll aggregate, 53.0% disapprove of Joe Biden’s performance and 41.5% approve (net -11.5). Biden’s net approval has dropped about one point since the invasion.
In a poll conducted at the start of the invasion, 62%, including 38% of Democrats, thought Putin would not have invaded had Donald Trump still been president. 59% thought Putin ordered the invasion because he saw weakness in Biden, while 41% thought Biden was not a factor.
I believe this polling highlights that the fallout from the Afghanistan troop withdrawal in August 2021 has crippled Biden on any national security issue. It also continues to affect his ratings on eg the economy because voters have lost confidence in his competence.
In US redistricting news, courts in North Carolina and Pennsylvania have finalised new maps. The new NC map was created after courts rejected a Republican gerrymander, while Pennsylvanian courts resolved a dispute between the Democratic governor and Republican legislature. In Ohio, Republicans used their majority on a redistricting commission to pass a gerrymander, but it is likely to be rejected by state courts.
Overall, there are currently 179 Democratic-leaning seats in the FiveThirtyEight tracker, 171 Republican-leaning and 33 competitive. Democrats are up 11 seats from the old maps, Republicans down six and competitive down six.
Biden nominated Ketanji Brown Jackson to replace the retiring Stephen Breyer on the US Supreme Court. If confirmed by a simple majority in the Senate, Jackson will be the first Black woman Supreme Court judge. But she will replace a left-wing judge, and the 6-3 right majority will be retained.
France: a Macron vs Le Pen runoff more likely
The first round of the French presidential election will occur April 10, with a runoff April 24 between the top two. Since the Ukraine invasion, incumbent Emmanuel Macron has gained to be in the mid to high 20s from the mid 20s. The latest polls suggest the far-right Marine Le Pen has moved ahead of both the more far-right Éric Zemmour and conservative Valérie Pécresse.
Pécresse had appeared to be the most competitive runoff opponent for Macron, but the latest two runoff polls have Macron winning by about 60-40. Le Pen is now closest, with Macron leading her by about 56-44.
UK: Little change as Labour faces by-election
The Ukraine invasion has not changed the polls very much in the UK, with Labour ahead of the Conservatives by a low single digit margin, reflecting a continuing recovery for Boris Johnson from “Partygate”.
Polls close at 9am AEDT Friday for a by-election in Birmingham Erdington, which Labour won by a 50-40 margin over the Conservatives in 2019.
How easy, or not, will it be to put out the fire at the nuclear plant? How hard is it to penetrate the core?
Pondering – was this his plan in the first place? His forces stopped people working in Chernobyl. Does he want a nuclear wasteland that other countries/people won’t/can’t enter as a buffer zone?
“Citing a “change of era,” Macron said he would convene a summit of the 27 heads of state of the European Union in Versailles on March 10 and 11 to discuss a steep change in European defense policy. France currently holds the Presidency of the EU.”
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/macron-addresses-nation-on-ukraine-to-convene-leaders-in-eu-summit/2521843#
DRDR @ #32 Friday, March 4th, 2022 – 8:02 am
Operation Sea Lion was the planned invasion of the UK. Never executed, as it was cancelled by Hitler.
Socrates says:
Friday, March 4, 2022 at 12:51 pm
ar
“You can watch the dictator set the world on fire from the sidelines, or you can stop him. Blame is for afterwards, if everything isn’t turned to ash first.”
And how exactly do you propose to stop a 200,000 man army? Nuke them? What is your solution that won’t escalate a dangerous situation even further?
Putin is obviously not winning. The idea that Russia can conquer and subdue a 40-million strong population looks to be more and more unrealistic each day. Ukraine is being re-armed by its allies. Effectively, Ukraine is now a NATO frontline in all but name.
Russia now have to fight to win at all costs. If they are defeated, then NATO will be on their doorstep, and by attacking Ukraine Putin will have brought about the very thing he tried to prevent. The attack on the nuclear power station is a sign of desperation on Putin’s part.
It must be dawning on Putin and his military staff that, as long as Ukraine can resist, short of the annihilation of the Ukrainian people, Russia cannot win. As long as Ukraine can be re-supplied with weapons that are effective against Russian armour and air power, then Ukraine can resist. Clearly, they will resist.
This is becoming an all-or-nothing conflict. In this respect, it is increasingly dangerous for all.
Putin has gambled all by pitting himself against NATO’s shadow. He faces complete loss and humiliation….and this would indeed be the closing act in the dissolution of the Soviet Union.
The 200,000 men aren’t a problem. Most of them probably don’t even want to be there, and Ukraine is large enough to deal with 200,000 armed men.
The problem is the tanks, vehicles, aircraft, and artillery pieces accompanying the men. Disable/destroy those, and the invasion fails.
Anyways, I’d give Ukraine the no-fly zone they’re begging for. Then bomb the 200,000 men with leaflets warning them to leave immediately. And then cruise missile/drone/bomb/strafe any Russian vehicle I can identify on Ukraine’s side of the border.
Hell no. Why would you even suggest that? Conventional munitions only. And only against Russian materiel inside of Ukraine.
Russia has started a war. The only solution that doesn’t “escalate” is preemptive surrender/letting Putin sack Ukraine. I think those ideas are shit. And cowardly to boot. And unlikely to even succeed long term in terms of avoiding a more direct confrontation anyways.
However, if things escalate and how much they escalate is entirely up to Putin. If he chooses to take things further, that’s just one more thing on him.
I have been observing the Putin Trump nexus from before Trump became President.
Watching how things are now playing out in real time.
Particularly in respect to the January 6 committee findings, and strong sanctions that are being imposed on Russia by the USA and the western world.
I maintain my strong beliefs from the get go.
Putin has kompromat on Trump and it is no small thing. Thereby making Trump an asset of Putin. It is all coming to a head.
Florida and mara lago which is Trump headquarters, gives the biggest clue to what it is.
Lots of young Russian girls about. It has been alluded to in past reporting that was given scant regard.
Trafficking.
I continue to be confident that Trump will be found to be a traitor and an illegitimate President.
And all the GOP members who willingly got bought by Putin and co., are done for too.
This is despite Putin perhaps winning this battle. He, Trump and the GOP have lost the war.
They underestimated what was happening behind the scenes.
They made a big miscalculation. They believed their own propaganda that Biden was a senile weak old man and the Democrats too stupid for their own good.
A R says:
Friday, March 4, 2022 at 1:16 pm
If it looks like Putin could prevail, then I expect NATO will declare a military no-fly zone; they will attack Russian forces with missiles launched from the territories of NATO members; they will shoot down Russian aircraft over Ukraine with rockets and their own aircraft; and they will bomb Russian ground forces in Ukraine.
Very obviously, Putin intends widespread civilian loss of life. NATO cannot tolerate that, and that means they cannot afford to allow Putin to win. He will soon have to choose: to cease fire and withdraw, or to be obliterated in Ukraine. If the latter is required, it will be done. Part of the cost of defeat will be the surrender of Putin to the ICC.
You would think he’s lost all the initiative now. Time is already running out for Putin.
I just watched ‘The Breakdown’ with Rick Wilson, Tara Setmayer and Tom Nicholls and their judgement was that 2 years virtually alone in a bunker trying to avoid Covid has made Putin paranoid and delusional. Pushed him over the sanity precipice.
C@t
It probably has. But Putin always intended to invade Ukraine if he couldn’t succeed in destroying the elected govt by other means.
105 years after the Bolshevik Revolution commenced it is about to be retrenched forever.
I also just heard that the 40 mile long convoy is at a standstill. The Ukrainian Army have caught up to them at last. Russian soldiers are surrendering. They are even puncturing holes in their fuel tanks so they can’t go any further.
Victoria @ #60 Friday, March 4th, 2022 – 1:31 pm
Both. He seems to have been aided by turncoat former Ukrainian President Viktor Yushenko. How could you do that to your own people?
C@t
Putin Is extremely paranoid. Which doesnt mean that his own people are not out to get him.
They could be slowly poisoning him or something.
Remember the intelligence USA has been exposing is quite specific.
Likely a traitor in the Kremlin, and Putin knows it, but perhaps not whom.
Sea Lion was only really ever a threat in being.
More a gambit to perhaps push the UK into a peace settlement.
It was never serious, the Royal Navy was not going to be overcome and the Kriegsmarine lacked sealift capability. Once the RAF had won the air battle, it was no longer even a credible threat.
Hitler’s eyes were always firmly gazing in an Easterly direction, especially once the Western Allies were kicked off the continent.
C@tmomma:
The fire is/was in an administration building, ordinary firefighting techniques suffice as long as the firefighters can safely get on site!
This has a map of the battle – the containment vessels are behind and to the side of the camera that the footage comes from: https://twitter.com/Balde_Moto/status/1499544111765807108
As you may remember from Fukushima, such reactors need a continuous supply of power for cooling. If the reactors are shut down due to the battle, they are relying on external supplies of electricity or the diesel backup generators on site, which have a limited supply of fuel (and of course, require the technicians to be able to get on site). This is incredibly reckless even if the containment vessels aren’t breached.
I am not sure what on earth the Russians were thinking. They could have just waited this one out isolated the power plant and town waited for food to run low and then get a sensible handover. Yes, they would want to secure nuclear material but the Ukrainian power plant workers weren’t about to blow up the plant on purpose, so the troops could have waited it out there.
It is more than clear that the Russians did no real planning for this invasion.
Thank you so much for that, caf! At least it was ‘only’ the Admin Building. A deliberate move or bad aim?
Cat, Victoria
“I just watched ‘The Breakdown’ with Rick Wilson, Tara Setmayer and Tom Nicholls and their judgement was that 2 years virtually alone in a bunker trying to avoid Covid has made Putin paranoid and delusional. Pushed him over the sanity precipice.”
I find this a very plausible (and concerning) explanation of the present. Putin may have always been planning to conquer Ukraine, but why his present actions have become so reckless needs an explanation.
From The Guardian:
‘…The mayor of Enerhodar, a town located about 150km south-east of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, has said fighting at the plant has stopped, according to BBC Ukrainian, citing a local broadcaster.
…’—————————–
150km south-east of the power plant is well out into the Black Sea.
I say call Putin’s bluff. Let him know he will be the first to die if he touches the nuke button. Then enforce the no-fly zone, attack the convoy with missiles, shoot the Russian planes out of the sky.
Yes, he might hit that button, but the West has to grow some balls, like Zelenskyy’s, and act.
If Putin is alllowed to use the nuclear threat and it works, he will repeat it until he dies.
And I have adult kids in Paris and London.
William, please delete my email address on my previous post, in moderation.
Yes a problem with units, Enerhodar appears to be more like 1500 m south-east of the NPP.
caf says:
Friday, March 4, 2022 at 4:24 pm
Yes a problem with units…
———————–
Yeah, nah. A problem with the lack of subbies. That went through both the BBC and the Guardian’s quality control measures.
I have seen unconfirmed reports of Russian invaders firing RPGs inside a nuclear power plant. After this, no-one can possibly doubt their courage.
Somehow, courage isn’t the word I would use to describe firing RPGs inside a nuclear power plant.
“And here we bump into the limits of central-bank sanctions as a financial weapon: A weapon that altogether crushes an adversary’s banking system may be just a little too powerful. The West wants to administer penalties that cause Russia to alter its aggressive behavior, not to crush the Russian economy.”
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/02/how-russian-sanctions-work/622940/
Puffy, I’ve deleted your email address.
A couple of points, FWIW.
1. The way to handle an invasion by 200,000 soldiers is to kill them all as quickly as possible and with as little loss to the home side as possible. Fundamentally, war is about killing people until one lot or another of the survivors chuck it in. The beauty of the Greens’ Light Mobile Force is that this would certainly help speed up the end of a war. The unfortunate concomitant being that it is the enemy that benefits the most.
2. There seems to be an assumption among some Bludgers that we should only purchase military equipment that cannot be destroyed in a war. This is a nonsense. One of the KPIs of running a war is to lose your material strength at a slower rate than those the enemy. In other words when you go to war you must expect lots of your equipment to be destroyed.
Dr Fumbles Mcstupid @ #75 Friday, March 4th, 2022 – 4:45 pm
Yes, Boerwar seems to relish a perverse use of words sometimes.
‘Pi says:
Friday, March 4, 2022 at 4:52 pm
“And here we bump into the limits of central-bank sanctions as a financial weapon: A weapon that altogether crushes an adversary’s banking system may be just a little too powerful. The West wants to administer penalties that cause Russia to alter its aggressive behavior, not to crush the Russian economy.”’
===================================
Piffle. We need a new General Sherman.
Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) on Thursday called for a Julius Caesar-style assassination of Russian President Vladimir Putin.
“Is there a Brutus in Russia?” Graham tweeted, “Is there a more successful Colonel Stauffenberg in the Russian military?” he asked, referring to the German soldier who attempted to kill Adolf Hitler.
And, at the moment, Boerwar couldn’t be more perverse if he tried. And the fixation with The Greens’ ‘Light Mobile Force’. Like, we got it the first 1000 times already. 🙄 I don’t think it needs to be brought here as well.
My thoughts turned to Nevil Shute and ‘On the Beach’ today.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/04/ukraine-nuclear-power-plant-fire-zaporizhzhia-russian-shelling
Boerwarsays:
Friday, March 4, 2022 at 4:30 pm
I have seen unconfirmed reports of Russian invaders firing RPGs inside a nuclear power plant. After this, no-one can possibly doubt their courage.
If history is any judge? Russian soldiers have always been considered some of the bravest. I recall some quote from a German General WWII “Never have I seen men treat life with such utter disdain” or words to that effect.
At this moment I feel this invasion is not going to Putin’s plan. Who knows what it will be like tomorrow or an hour for that matter.
C@T
“At least it was ‘only’ the Admin Building. A deliberate move or bad aim?”
And herein lays the problem. Artillery is an area weapon, not a precision weapon (even though more accurate today than in the past) which is why it’s normally fired as a battery (4-6 guns at once) so you make sure you hit whatever it is you’re aiming at. Many a mistake in war has precipitated greater and more disastrous responses. It’s hard to know if this shelling was intentional in terms of the target or whether it was a mistake.
I would think the use of drones (predators and raptors) would be particularly useful also to Ukraine in terms of tank-busting and convoy demolition. They are much cheaper require much less training and specialisation than pilots and aircraft and are easily sent across the borders from the West like the anti-tank weaponry.
Former MI6 Chief On the Ukraine & Russia Conflict | Oxford Union
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yw5lzKVn3sc&ab_channel=OxfordUnion
Lindsay Graham in good company with some Bludgers.
Rewi @ #90 Friday, March 4th, 2022 – 6:33 pm
And? I could just as easily infer that you prefer to side with Putin, so quick you are to jump to the defense of a mass murderer when some here are simply spitballing their frustrations and you can’t even see that.
Rewi
Lindsey Graham is a bona fide idiot. He is a US senator. He shouldn’t be tweeting what is on the mind of most people.
C@t
Far right and far left. Two sides of same coin.
Cronus @ #88 Friday, March 4th, 2022 – 5:37 pm
I remember for a while, and I don’t know why, but when I opened the NYT and The Washington Post, I was fed ads about the latest in military drone technology. They really opened my eyes to the ‘advancements’ that have been made with this sort of technology. Not to mention the unmanned submarine drones. I hear Ukraine has been using drones. Successfully. I wonder what sort?
Victoria @ #93 Friday, March 4th, 2022 – 6:58 pm
Getting closer every day.
Fair point
There’s a stark and important difference between Putin and Xi: Mr. Xi and his ilk really care about building up China’s economy. Putin is willing to sacrifice Russia’s economy for his own power. This is a very different mentality and will strongly color their risk assessments.
C@t
Agreed
C@tmomma
I’ve done no such thing, as you well know.
You, by contrast, have openly countenanced assassination, a crime. You’re not alone.
If you believe so strongly in that course of action you should have the courage of your convictions to defend the position that an eye for an eye is a suitable defence for murder without having to resort to misrepresenting my previous statements in such a vile fashion.
Anoosh Chakelian
@Anoosh_C
Exclusive polling for the
@NewStatesman
by
@RedfieldWilton
shows –
– Majority of Brits want Boris Johnson to resign
– Two-thirds of voters say his response to the war has not changed their view of him:
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/polling/2022/03/exclusive-polling-most-brits-still-want-boris-johnson-to-resign