For those of you following the South Australian election, note the new post immediately below this one. For the rest of you:
• The latest fortnightly Roy Morgan poll has Labor leading 56.5-43.5, in from 57-43 last time, from primary votes of Coalition 32.5% (down half), Labor 37.5% (down one), Greens 12.5% (up one), One Nation 3.5% (down half) and United Australia Party on 1.5% (steady). The state two-party breakdowns have Labor leading 56.5-43.5 in New South Wales (in from 59-41 for a swing of around 9%), 60-40 in Victoria (out from 57.5-42.5 for a swing of around 7%), 52-48 in Western Australia (in from 53.5-46.5 for a swing of around 7.5%), 59.5-40.5 in South Australia (steady for a swing of around 9%) and 75-25 in Tasmania (a swing of 19%, with the inevitable proviso that this is from a tiny sample). The result in Queensland is 50-50, compared with 51.5-48.5 to Labor last time, for a swing of around 8.5%. The poll had a sample of 2261 and was conducted from February 14 to 23, long lead times before publication having become a feature of Roy Morgan’s polling of late.
• The Courier-Mail had results on federal politics from the same YouGov poll for which it published Queensland state voting intention results on Saturday, though this did not include straight results on voting intention. The poll found Scott Morrison at 41% approval and 47% disapproval in Queensland, with Anthony Albanese at 32% and 38%. Forty-three per cent thought a “Morrison Liberal-National Coalition government” would be better for Queensland compared with 39% for “an Albanese Labor government”. The poll was conducted February 18 to 23 from a sample of 1021.
• The Australian yesterday had follow-up questions from the weekend Newspoll on various questions of national security, which found 33% favouring Scott Morrison and the Coalition on handling the threat of China and 26% favouring Anthony Albanese and Labor, compared with 31% and 26% when the question was previously asked a month ago, with respective results of 30% and 24% on a similar question involving the threat of Russia. Seventy-four per cent felt China posed a threat to Australian national security compared with 18% who didn’t, while 64% held such a view in relation to Russia compared with 27% who didn’t.
“ I see in hindsight this is also why we argued a few months ago over the cost and merit of the French contract. You quoted in good faith from Defence’s “official” figures, but I was quoting from the other numbers quoted by Finance. Hence we were a long way apart because our dodgy government had two sets of figures! Accepting the finally admitted outturn dollar contract from Finance (and now Defence) is the real cost, I do not think a return to the Naval contract is sensible.”
A few observations:
1. I think there is still a conflation between overall “program costs” and the Naval Group “Contract Costs”.
2. Despite the Senate report, we really are none the wiser. There really should be a breakdown for the public at some stage. An independent inquiry needs rto be established, if for no other reason to ensure that history does not repeat. Given that the Sea 5000 program has grown from a less than $6 billion replacement for the ANZACs when envisaged more than a decade ago, to now $45 billion (which itself is a $10 billion blowout since the tender was awarded back in 2018) and witch represents a 400% (yes that’s right 400%) mark up on what the Americans are paying the Italians for a FREMM variants that won either FF(X)G contract (which will have all the AEGIS and missile goodies that the Hunter class will have, plus two helicopter garages, which the Hunter won’t) then whatever Defence is up to is not limited to Naval Group.
3. In my view, despite the opacity of the Attack class contract, and the apparent cost blow out and who knows, possible corruption, if we are serious about building any submarines this decade in Australia, we are … stuck. No other realistic option would not involve another 5 years detailed design work. Despite Senator Patrick’s fever dreams of some ‘off the shelf’ design that could be built in Australia immediately.
4. Therefore, if the French will have us back as a close strategic partner, we should probably enter into a de novo contract with them (but without the opaqueness of yesteryear) for 6 boats, to be built at a two year drumbeat in Adelaide starting from no later than 2025. Especially if, having exhausted all possible AUKUS alternatives (and that option looks particularly bleak, doesn’t it?) neither the Brits or the Americans can help us out in a reasonably urgent timeframe, the French also agree us with our longer term SSN program, as set out below.
5. In addition to building us nuclear subs and teaching us how to build our own later on, the French could be persuaded to extend the life of the Rubis class boats so that three of them could be based out of Perth for 10-15 years from 2025. That way we could patrol the oceans and not just littoral waters for nasty ChiComm SSNs that may be sent to loiter close enough to unleash a dozen our so nuclear armed cruise missile at key targets. apparently, with the alleged charge in strategic outlook we need to be doing that NOW. I cant see any other way to achieve that before about 2040.
5. I’ve posted before that I think there is likely to be 2 construction slots available at Naval Groups submarine building facility in Cherbourg from about 2025 until the end of their next generation SSBN building in the mid 2040s (a quick recap: by 2025 the Suffren class build will be winding down as the first four boats in class will be in commission and the last two heading forwards completion. the French are only planning to lay down one new SSBN every 5 years, hence there will be a free slot in 2025, and another one by 2028 and thereafter for the next 20 odd years – there being 4 construction slots in total in that yard). Therefore Naval Group could build us 2 ‘Aussie Suffrens’ – laid down in 2025 and 2028 – this decade and another two from the middle of next decade.
6. therefore, by about 2038, we could have in service the following (in addition to our ageing but hopefully still capable 6 boat Collins class fleet): the first 4 Attack class boats, 2 French built Aussie Suffrens (which would then replace the Rubis class boats). With another two Sufferns being built in France, plus the last two Attack class boats nearing completion in Adelaide, and with locally built Suffrens being due to be laid down from no later than 2040. Therefore, by the time the last Collins boat wars withdrawn from service by about 2045 wed have 4 nuclear SSNs in service, plus 6 Attack class SSKs with up to 4 additional and locally built SSNs in production.
The Pakistani batsmen are always technically wonderful to watch.
I had forgotten Azhar Ali had made 200 not out at the MCG. Now 37 and putting us to the sword again.
”
beguiledagainsays:
Saturday, March 5, 2022 at 7:07 pm
………………..
….
…………….
PB commentator’s curse. As soon as I praised them, Ul Haq falls to Pat Cummins for 157.
”
beguiledagain
I read following comment in Cricinfo, which is a cricket website.
Maranello: “When do Australian start ruing taking Imam’s wicket?”
Bushfire Bill @ #1795 Saturday, March 5th, 2022 – 7:42 pm
Sean Penn today, because he was in Ukraine as recently as last week speaking with Zelensky and who will be going back to Poland next week to help with aid for the refugees, all of whom are being allowed into Poland, black or white, said to Anderson Cooper when asked whether he thought the Ukrainians had a chance against Putin, simply said, watch that documentary, it will tell you everything you need to know to answer that question.
beguiledagain @ #1787 Saturday, March 5th, 2022 – 7:07 pm
Just a layman’s guess, but I’d say Australia’s heart and head just aren’t 100% in the game after the last 24 hours.
Bill Browder: “When you believe your time is almost up, you start a war.”
Scott Morrison and Peter Dutton tried their best. 😉
Ukraine has a comedian that became a leader.
We have a leader who became a comedian.
Shellbell,
No bounce makes it easy for professional blockers.
G G at 8.38pm
There are several ‘model’ experiences for an Australian team touring the subcontinent.
One is ‘batting paradise, locals win toss and score enormously. Aussies either reply enormously (draw) or succumb to scoreboard pressure, paving the way for local win.’
Snappy,
Good for batting averages but not for credibility.
OMG Earlwood enough of your boring, long winded lecturing on Australian Defence Procurement. Create your own blog if you want to tell the world how clever you well informed you are. Enough already.
Unless that nothing pitch suddenly starts producing land mines the first Test will be a high scoring drawn out boring draw I suspect.
Elmer_Fudd says Saturday, March 5, 2022 at 9:01 pm
I find them interesting. If you don’t like them you can always scroll past.
Elmer_Fudd @ #1735 Saturday, March 5th, 2022 – 9:01 pm
It won’t work. He’s a trainspotter.
bc @ #1737 Saturday, March 5th, 2022 – 9:23 pm
The blog isn’t here for other Defence materiel trainspotters either.
Although I do find all the cricket stuff equally as flat and dry as a Pakistani cricket pitch. Though at least it rises to the level of being mildly entertaining.
You raise an existential issue C@tmomma. I would have thought the blog exists for those that post on topics that you find dry, and indeed for those who you term trainspotters. As it exists for both you and I.
That said, we do have an (slightly) interventionist god. So we may find out in time 😉
Did I just hear a Clive Palmer add claiming we need freedom from microchipped toilet paper?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oh4iF_Si_2E
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=InycO9GoI1s
Fulvio Sammut @ Saturday, March 5, 2022 at 9:43 pm
Hilarious! Watching the cricket perchance? 🙂
Anything is possible.
Hugs and kisses Elmer. I guess the potential waste of $250 billion of tax payers money, possibly half a trillion dollars under AUKUS has no place on an Australian political blog; nor the fact that recent decisions made seem to be with a prime focus of contriving a khaki election. Or that the PM of the day lurches from one fuck up to another, creating massive defence capability gaps along the way, whilst his defence minister runs unchecked in picking fights with nuclear superpowers in the neighbourhood in pursuit of said khaki election.
Boring. I hear ya.
A discussion on the fall out from all of that – including its obvious political ramifications, both before and after said election, simply has no place on this blog. I get it. Mia culpa.
Rain from North West just for a bit of variation
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR713.loop.shtml#skip
Griff @ #1741 Saturday, March 5th, 2022 – 9:39 pm
I’m sure we will. And likely very soon. It’s why I await that intervention as the self-same god has pronounced that we must discuss the Ukraine-Russia conflict on another thread and so I would have thought that if someone else wants to go on endlessly, seemingly, about a subject that has passed from the political present long ago and is less relevant now, then maybe another thread for those for whom it is endlessly fascinating would be a sensible choice.
I mean, this is a politics blog, and I get the angle that ties endless discussion about Defence Materiel to it, but it’s getting to the point of being as tedious as the discussions around the Climate Change legislation!
And that’s the point to me, now that I think about it. All the discussion about how many and what type of submarines would best fit on the head of an Australian pin and who should supply them and why is entirely moot. Nothing is going to change the decision that has been made by the present Australian government and nothing will change if we get a new Labor federal government, as our present position in this fast changing political environment is showing us, loud and clear.
Maybe a new federal Labor government and Defence Minister will finesse some of the decisions that have been made but there’s no way that a wholesale change will be made to the AUKUS program. And anyone who spends reams of internet paper here trying to convince you otherwise is simply yanking chains.
And I’ve always found that boring to look at.
No, I was catching up on poll bludger with channel 9 news on in the background ….
“ Maybe a new federal Labor government and Defence Minister will finesse some of the decisions that have been made but there’s no way that a wholesale change will be made to the AUKUS program. And anyone who spends reams of internet paper here trying to convince you otherwise is simply yanking chains.”
Did you even read the majority (mainly the Labor senator’s) report published last Friday? Sure there is total, 100% bipartisan support for AUKUS. But guess what? It seems highly likely – as I always suspected – AUKUS can’t actually deliver.
To say ‘there will be no wholesale changes to the AUKUS program” assumes that there is actually an AUKUS program. There isn’t. There is a study group. And the Labor senators are signalling pretty clearly that they think that there won’t ever be a visible AUKUS nuclear submarine program. At least not in the time frame talked about. Let alone a timeframe that would be of any use to use in a kinetic war with china at any time in the next 20 years.
Now: how exactly is discussing THAT mere “ Defence materiel trainspotting” comrade C@T? It seems pretty existential to me. And not just in a way that Griff was referring to.
I don’t really care in the way that you do, Earlwood. And that’s the point. You just go on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on about it.
Are you incapable of making a point succinctly? It certainly seems like it. As Elmer_Fudd said, and I agree, it’s become B.O.R.I.N.G. Except to the trainspotters like you. That’s all. And you just can’t see it.
Of course, you will defend to the hilt that YOU think it’s important, but that’s not the point and you don’t get that. We got it the first 500 times you made that point and you just seem incapable of moving on from it.
I think it’s one of the strengths of PB that there are people who do have a keen specialist interest in things that we don’t otherwise see much in-depth media reporting on. People who can dig around in the documentation and comment with some knowledge on a topic. I may not read every post in detail, but I do like being able to sample where a discussion is at to get an idea of what the significant issues to be aware of might be and where to go to find more resources.
Of course William may have specific instructions as to what topics and at what length will be tolerated, but I don’t otherwise see the value in people chiming in with what amounts to little more than “I’m boooooored”.
C@t
Have some H.L.Mencken
Re Jackol @10:24. Agree.
“ I don’t really care in the way that you do, Earlwood.”
Perhaps because you fail to grasp the extinction level implications with embedding ourselves blindly in the sweaty arm pit of the Good Ole’ US of A, as we have rushed to do in recent years. Submarines, defence procurement, etc are merely pieces that are in play in the overall game – which in my view is a ticking time bomb that I’d like some sensible adult to defuse before its all too late.
However, I simply don’t believe you: you care mightily. You blindly love the American alliance. At Greg Sheridan levels. Especially when it comes to the Biden Administration. Feeble and as transitory as that may be.
Claims by you that its all boring, or that I’m prolix are mere deflection. You are trying to shut me down, even though we are literally talking about hundreds of billions of tax payers dollars, which are being manipulated with pure domestic political advantage in mind, with the stench of incompetence, corruption, the misleading of parliament all now squarely on the table. With a pocket fascist trying to provoke a war, having undermined our basic capability to defend ourselves. I can well understand why your puny mind finds all of THAT B.O.R.I.N.G. Or at least that’s what you pretend, anyways.
Goodness me, BK, Pakistan have lost 2/122 since their last ‘collapse!’
Jackol,
Simplistic reductions of a valid argument to, ‘I’m booooored’, are superficial contributions. But yes, beyond the initial interest I took in the subject, it became boring long ago and I have been scrolling through it. I mean, really, get some perspective. It’s a rather indulgent luxury to be sitting around discussing something with no immediate relevance to current affairs, because we can, when, on the other side of the world things are going to hell in a handbasket. You might enjoy that type of distraction, which you have every right to and all that other pc nonsense, but I also have the right to say that it’s passed its use by date.
Nevertheless, I am not so dumb as not to be able to realise that boys love talking about military toys and have done ever since they got their first bag of plastic soldiers as a child. And that they think it’s important, even if others don’t or only find it of passing and temporary interest.
And, with that, I’m going to bed because it’s more interesting than sticking around here for the endless justifications for something I know will never end.
Still, Elmer and I tried.
Putting my head on the block…
I have found various posts from A_E and Socrates on national security most helpful.
I have been concerned at how much this country seems to spend for not much in this space and about the terrible military adventures upon which we embark, almost exclusively at the behest of Coalition govts.
Mr (Dr?) Bowe might also confirm my sense that basically any pollster that asks ‘which party is better on national security?’ and/or ‘which party is better on the economy?’ invariably comes up with ‘the Coalition!’
Maybe, just maybe, developing a clear, fact-based understanding of Coalition incompetence in say, national security, is a prerequisite to changing public perceptions.
Sorry, that would expect the public to exercise their logical, critical faculties! (I recognise my mistake…)
Andrew_Earlwood @ #1755 Saturday, March 5th, 2022 – 10:32 pm
Bollocks. You don’t know me. So don’t even try to hazard such a pusillanimous guess as the one above.
Anyway, it’s all just overblown rhetoric from a barrister. Which I don’t take seriously and comes at the rate of a dime a dozen. On special, for a penny a pop, late on a Saturday night. Yawn.
I don’t think you even realise how embarrassing such contributions as that one above is and how it says more about you than me.
Sad.
Snappy Tom,
Hmm, maybe you have found the contributions ‘helpful’ because you like that sort of stuff to begin with?
Frankly, I find imacca’s contributions the most informative. They are rare but always succinct and on point. And definitely not boring. 🙂
having been feed a staple diet that the ChiComms are coming to get us, its comforting to know that C@tmomma has now declared that its all B.O.R.I.N.G. and of not of contemporary relevance.
That’s a relief.
Cut the personal shit, C@t. At no point did I insult you, I simply offered a different view – but you had to go snide and personal straight off.
Don’t worry about putting your head on the block Snappy Tom.
I’m with you.
A_E’s posts are very informative and highlight the current governments spending waste in the defence department.
Certain contributors will not hear a bad word about defence spending wastage, disregarding any evidence provided.
Keep up the good work A_E!
*edit Snappy Tom not Elmer
Cat
Sorry if I started the boredom re Subs yet again. But even apart from defence implications, the sheer amount of money being wasted by defence on these sub and ship deals, without the jobs promised being realised, is a serious problem.
Labor will have to deal with it in office. There is enough money at stake to fully fund the NDIS with the change, or fund an industry transition scheme for the entire coal industry.
Whilst AE and I might debate the next defence step, I think we both agree there is a need for a proper inquiry into defence procurement, and probably a fair clean out of senior people in defence. We also need a legislative fix to stop conflicts of interest with program heads rotating into private industry to firms directly involved in major contracts.
AE
Seeing your post earlier yes we do need to see a breakdown of the costs. The absence of one is itself suspicious.
Night all.
“ Cut the personal shit, C@t. At no point did I insult you, I simply offered a different view – but you had to go snide and personal straight off.”
best to remember that C@t may like to throw a punch, but one should not ever return the favour. ‘Cause sexism.
This doesn’t look good.
Yes, I’m in there somewhere, massive area though.
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR034.loop.shtml
Elmer_Fudd says:
Saturday, March 5, 2022 at 9:01 pm
There are several bludgers with knowledge of defence, defence equipment and related matters. I’m glad they take the trouble to follow these things and that they post on them. I know absolutely nothing about them and am relieved that some at least have taken the trouble to inform themselves on what are, in fact, serious and important issues.
It’s also very clear from the bludgers’ commentary that the fools now running the country are playing make-believe with defence, as they do with everything else.
Been There
Higgins Storm chasing said tonight that there is the possibility of winds of 120 km possibly gusting up to 150kmh in the next two days.
Agreed. Wake up to yourself, Elmer Fudd.
Given you post about 60 comments a day, a state of affairs I make no secret of being unhappy about, you should refrain from adding to the pile by presuming to tell others what and how they should post.
“Ukraine has a comedian that became a leader.
We have a leader who became a comedian.”
I am going to respectfully disagree with you BK……..quite strongly.
Morrison has NEVER been any kind of leader. 🙁
Have to say that i do find both AE’s and Soc’s contributions on the ongoing Subs debate, and some of the links to info they provide interesting. Learned a bit more of the nature of the Hunter Class issues than i knew before. Have to see where this going but i live in hope that an incoming ALP Govt this year will get things on track in terms of actual useful capability and meaningful timelines. Under the Lib/Nats…we got no chance. 🙁
RP
Not good!
Take care if you’re in it too.
Re test cricket. In a Shield final you must bowl the home team out twice to win. A few years ago home team won toss and batted. Opposition dejected when it was 9 for 900.
Some wickets don’t produce a result and a draw is better than a loss if you know you are no chance.
I apologise if I applied accelerant. It must have been my snarky default setting. I would like to clearly articulate that I enjoy our pluralistic community, whether I scroll, argue, or even agree. We have enough echo chambers in life 😉
imacca @ #1846 Saturday, March 5th, 2022 – 8:39 pm
Also, has he ever been funny?