For those of you following the South Australian election, note the new post immediately below this one. For the rest of you:
• The latest fortnightly Roy Morgan poll has Labor leading 56.5-43.5, in from 57-43 last time, from primary votes of Coalition 32.5% (down half), Labor 37.5% (down one), Greens 12.5% (up one), One Nation 3.5% (down half) and United Australia Party on 1.5% (steady). The state two-party breakdowns have Labor leading 56.5-43.5 in New South Wales (in from 59-41 for a swing of around 9%), 60-40 in Victoria (out from 57.5-42.5 for a swing of around 7%), 52-48 in Western Australia (in from 53.5-46.5 for a swing of around 7.5%), 59.5-40.5 in South Australia (steady for a swing of around 9%) and 75-25 in Tasmania (a swing of 19%, with the inevitable proviso that this is from a tiny sample). The result in Queensland is 50-50, compared with 51.5-48.5 to Labor last time, for a swing of around 8.5%. The poll had a sample of 2261 and was conducted from February 14 to 23, long lead times before publication having become a feature of Roy Morgan’s polling of late.
• The Courier-Mail had results on federal politics from the same YouGov poll for which it published Queensland state voting intention results on Saturday, though this did not include straight results on voting intention. The poll found Scott Morrison at 41% approval and 47% disapproval in Queensland, with Anthony Albanese at 32% and 38%. Forty-three per cent thought a “Morrison Liberal-National Coalition government” would be better for Queensland compared with 39% for “an Albanese Labor government”. The poll was conducted February 18 to 23 from a sample of 1021.
• The Australian yesterday had follow-up questions from the weekend Newspoll on various questions of national security, which found 33% favouring Scott Morrison and the Coalition on handling the threat of China and 26% favouring Anthony Albanese and Labor, compared with 31% and 26% when the question was previously asked a month ago, with respective results of 30% and 24% on a similar question involving the threat of Russia. Seventy-four per cent felt China posed a threat to Australian national security compared with 18% who didn’t, while 64% held such a view in relation to Russia compared with 27% who didn’t.
I actually think the polling may be her rather than us, so to speak. In either case, if you hear about it, it won’t be through me, unless indirectly.
Presumably this is because he’s not (or hasn’t been) officially the candidate yet.
Sir Henry Parkes @ #1730 Saturday, March 5th, 2022 – 3:49 pm
The Queen’s private secretary, Martin Charteris was instrumental in those communications with Kerr.
There was also a question about the Morrison govt’s failure of women – how much more or less likely would I vote for Kylea – if that helps distinguish.
WB……..Teaser!!!
Apparently people who knew and worked with Shane Warne hold him in high regard. Here’s an example from the Rajasthan Royals.
Trent Zimmerman won’t have put out signs yet as he is not yet pre-selected. A sign of the disorder that the feud within the NSW Liberal Party is causing.
Sir Henry Parkes at 3.49pm re an Australian Republic
I am furious with Malcolm Turnbull and other Republican Movement leaders. They chose a parliament-appointed, easy-to-sack presidential model.
They argued that a popularly-elected president would accumulate too much power to be an ‘elected replacement for the Governor-General.’
They lied.
One example: Ireland has a popularly-elected President with a symbolic role. Ireland had that form of Presidency in the 1990s, when Turnbull (and Keating) chose to hide it from us.
They gave the anti-Republican forces two gifts: a divided pro-Republican movement and a simple negative campaign opportunity (vote No and save us from the politicians’ republic.)
Howard must have been laughing all the way to the bank.
One thing is clear to me: while I support a Republic to be rid of the monarchy, lots don’t. To win a referendum, they’ll want a positive reason for switching to a Republic. The only real selling point would be being able to elect our own Head of State.
Shane Warne was held in high regard by anyone that knew him.
In fact these people all say he is the best person they knew.
Greensborough Growler at 4.56pm re Warne
I’m one who has mixed views about Warne. Genius on the field (except in India) but not off it. Then again, I do not expect sporting champions to be good at anything other than…sport. I do not regard them as ‘role models for life.’
During the 2006/07 Ashes, the 2nd Test (at Adelaide) looked destined for a draw. Both sides’ first innings exceeded 500. At the close of day 4, England were 1/59. Draw for all money.
I’ve heard that Warne expressed the view to his team mates that quick wickets would make victory possible.
On day 5, England collapsed to 129 all out (unsurprisingly, Warne 4/49) and Australia aggressively chased 168 at five an over to win the Test by 6 wickets.
Belief and skill.
London’s ULEZ scheme to cover whole capital next year in petrol and diesel car tax blow:
London’s Mayor Sadiq Khan has announced plans to extend the city’s Ultra Low Emissions Zone across the whole capital. The new proposals would see the scheme extended to the very edges of London boroughs by 2023.
It means non-compliant petrol and diesel cars will be forced to pay £12.50 per day to enter the zone.
Nr Khan said: “The triple challenges of tackling toxic air pollution, the climate emergency and congestion mean we need to further reduce emissions from vehicles in London.
“This is also a matter of social justice – with air pollution hitting the poorest communities the hardest.
I was jumping radio stations at 2am when I heard a woman speaking with ABC Sydney about Warnie.
She said, after a particularly tiring and difficult match, kids were hanging off the fence to get autographs. Every Australian and opposing team player walked straight through the gates, disappointing the kids.
Not Warnie tho. He stopped and spent quite some time signing autographs. She said this happened often in public and privately.
9 No wonder every young boy wanted to be Warnie.
Vale Shane. A life truly well lived.
Holdenhillbilly at 5.33pm
I would support Australia exporting Scott Morrison and Michaelia Cash to the UK to help save the Poms’ utes/weekends.
All the platitudes aside – one can’t help wondering if Warne’s heart attack aged only 52 might have something to do with the severe (as in, on a ventilator severe) case of Covid he had about 6 months ago… Seeing as long-term vascular damage is shaping as a major side effect.
Thought I doubt they can really tell either way.
They should export Michaelia Cash to the border of Ukraine with Russia to scare the Russian military away. 😐
Socrates, at 4:34pm today:
I have now skimmed the latest Interim Senate Committee Report published last Friday.
It makes for very depressing reading all round.
The Liberal Senators now maintain that there was no blowout in costs in the Attack Class program and that the “program costs” – which would have to include all the extras required, like training, new plant and equipment, plus the value of the ‘technology transfer’ at the end of the program, despite the majority report detailing what appears to this little black duck to be some pretty clear evidence of a sleight of hand b y the Government and the Department of Defence, whereby a $20-30 billion contract envisaged in the CEP, became a $50 billion program ‘in turned out dollars’ (ie. to account for inflation over the approx 35 year life of build program according to the sworn evidence of Dennis Richardson – the then Secretary of the Department back in 2016/17, with some underling chiming in that the expanded figure also included some sustainment costs). THEN we get the bombshell – in late 2019 I think – that the $50 billion figure was – contrary to the earlier sworn evidence of Richardson – NOT turned out dollars, but constant 2016 dollars, and the turned out cost was actually $90 billion, which didn’t include any sustainment costs at all (that figure was likely to be a large slice of $145 billion sustainment costs for submarines over the next 50 years).
The coalition senators have the gall to say that the government and Department has been transparent with parliament.
These matters alone are enough to justify a Royal Commission. Then there are the future frigates fuck ups, which are just as bad, if not worse.
of course, finger pointing isn’t going to help Australia overcome yawning capability gaps that are now obvious in relation to both frigates and crucially, submarines.
A hot mess.
I might have more to comment (and I’ll do my best to avoid repeating what I’ve already posted before) tomorrow, but I’ll leave you with two ideas that I’ve ruminated over as Ive gone about my business today:
1. I don’t think any interim SSK ‘off the shelf’ design is suitable for an immediate building program in Australia. Even the very good ones will probably have to be modified to be effective over a 20-30 year lifecycle. However, perhaps we could lease 3 – boats and crew – from the Italian or Greek navies and base them in Darwin – at least until our Collins Class boats undergo their upgrades and life extension programs. That should at least allow us to maintain – perhaps ‘up’ our operational tempo in the littoral waters to our immediate north (which will still be the most important thing we need to do with our subs for the foreseeable future).
2. I just don’t see us being able to produce – whether they are built in Australian or OS – enough nuclear SSNs to be effective in expanding our critical Sea Denial patrols into the deep oceanic spaces of the Indian or the Pacific Oceans for more than 20 years (not unless either America, UK or France can build us some starting by the middle of this decade at the latest). However, what about negotiating with both the UK and France to have 1-2 SSN’s from each country based out of Australia on rotation (ie. 1-2 Suffren class boats out of Perth and 1-2 Astute class boats based on the east coast). Maybe we could offer to pick up the large sustainment tab for these boats as a sweetener.
Perhaps these suggestions would at least see the strategic sea approaches Australia being able to be defended from the incursion of nuclear armed SSKs [via the northern approaches by our own – and/or Greek and Italian SSKs] or nuclear armed SSNs [via the deep oceans by the French and Poms] this decade. Something that actually seems to me to be quite URGENT, IF the strategic situation actually deteriorates as feared. Right now I can’t see any other realistic alternative that sees us with enough of the right boats to do it for ourselves anytime before 2040.
Q: Expat
An expert has posted this may well be the case.
Having just worked 3 weeks in a Covid Ward, if you are on a ventilator like Warne was, you would have been incredibly ill, and no doubt suffer some long term effects.
Warne would have been better off sticking with the VB and durries.
Hobnobbing with the London hoi poloi could have given him a taste for a serious risk factor for middle-aged men
https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/cocaine-effects-on-heart#cocaine-and-the-heart
Snappy Tom:
One thing that has always bugged me is how, whenever an athlete is caught out cheating on their partner or drunkenly defecating in a hotel corridor, it’s followed by the shocked moral outcry about how bad a “role model” they are being for the kids. To which my mental response has always been: “Why are we making these people role models in the first place?” Just let them play whatever game it is they play without expecting them to teach us life-lessons.
It especially shits me when the athletes being pilloried are little more than kids themselves, often from dirt poor backgrounds where their skill at footy or cricket or whatever was the only thing they were ever especially good at. You take someone barely out of high school, make them famous, make them a millionaire, make them think they are God, and then act surprised when they get blind drunk – probably able assisted by that enormous esky in the locker room packed with whatever beer they are sponsorred by – and act like a knob?
I’m sure glad I wasn’t a public figure when I was 19. Those headlines wouldn’t have been pretty.
A_E at 6.01pm re Australian submarine and ship cost blowouts…
As I have posted previously, my operating thesis is ‘the Coalition is a clear and present danger to the national security of Australia.’
The fact that polling consistently rates them ‘better on national security/economy’ is either miraculous achievement, neo-fascistic disinformation or widespread stupidity – or all three.
By the way, if a Labor govt tried to clean this up by reviewing anything, they’d be ‘holding back a vital element of our national security’ etc etc.
Asha,
You’re still not a public figure.
The reason is you.
”
Snappy Tomsays:
Saturday, March 5, 2022 at 5:29 pm
Greensborough Growler at 4.56pm re Warne
I’m one who has mixed views about Warne. Genius on the field (except in India) but not off it. Then again, I do not expect sporting champions to be good at anything other than…sport. I do not regard them as ‘role models for life.’
During the 2006/07 Ashes, the 2nd Test (at Adelaide) looked destined for a draw. Both sides’ first innings exceeded 500. At the close of day 4, England were 1/59. Draw for all money.
I’ve heard that Warne expressed the view to his team mates that quick wickets would make victory possible.
On day 5, England collapsed to 129 all out (unsurprisingly, Warne 4/49) and Australia aggressively chased 168 at five an over to win the Test by 6 wickets.
Belief and skill.
Snappy Tom
“Belief and skill”
Currently that is what seems to be missing in Australian Cricket team in Pakistan, where Pakistan are currently 302/1 in first innings.
Cameron Green, who used to take wickets at the drop of his Captain’s hat (almost literally) in the just concluded Ashes series in Australia, finding it difficult to get a bowl.
“ As I have posted previously, my operating thesis is ‘the Coalition is a clear and present danger to the national security of Australia.’
The fact that polling consistently rates them ‘better on national security/economy’ is either miraculous achievement, neo-fascistic disinformation or widespread stupidity – or all three.”
The Liberal Senators had the chutzpah to point to the fact that Labor never commissioned the build of a single naval vessel between 2008-13. Ignoring the obvious reason for that: the Howard government had left the navy as one hot mess, which took Labor’s intensive ‘programs of concern’ to get on top of. Old landings ships, the wrong helicopters, ANZAC frigates that had not been upgraded, the submarine program left to stall. The reality is that if it took Labor 6 years to fix the Liberal’s hot mess last time it was in government it will surely take a decade this time around. Facepalm.
GG:
No shit, Sherlock.
Starc out – Boland in for second test.
AE
Thanks for reading the Senate report and I think our views are now similar.
Looking at the “sleight of hand” you referred to in Defence shifting from real/current (2016) dollars to outturn dollars, in my view that was an egregious deception of the Senate by Defence. You cannot work out the outturn price unless you know the current day price to factor it up for inflation. So I think somebody must have known they were lying.
The dissenting Liberal report is not fooling any of the other Senators, whether Labor, minor party or independent.
I see in hindsight this is also why we argued a few months ago over the cost and merit of the French contract. You quoted in good faith from Defence’s “official” figures, but I was quoting from the other numbers quoted by Finance. Hence we were a long way apart because our dodgy government had two sets of figures! Accepting the finally admitted outturn dollar contract from Finance (and now Defence) is the real cost, I do not think a return to the Naval contract is sensible.
As you indicate though, this leaves the RAN with few good sub replacement options that can be delivered reliably in the time required. In the interim basing of USN or RN SSNs in Perth until our capability is sorted is sensible. The required maintenance facilities (built to a nuclear engineering standard) should be built immediately.
In my view I think we should press ahead and build whichever SSN is faster to construct between the UK or US SSN design. That will depend on what support the RN or USN can offer.
Labor in government may wish to offer the French a chance to tender SSNs, but whichever we build, it will have to be for a price that includes technology transfer, so we can maintain them. That issue is sorted now for the RN and USN, but not necessarily for the French SSN.
I say again, there should be a judicial inquiry into the awarding and management of the Attack Class contract. The delays, cost and failures to accurately report to the Senate are scandalous. There is a long history of corruption and bribery in other submarine contracts around the world. It would be naive to think it can’t happen here.
I have nothing but contempt for posters that seem to believe that every cricket environment is the same.
Pakistan is not Australia.
The Poms are not the Pakis playing at home.
Australia has not batted on this track.
GG batting on days 4 and 5 should be interesting. Looks like a flat track that will likely wear badly.
Good toss to win.
To clarify that final paragraph at 6:03, I wasn’t trying to suggest I am now a public figure – thankfully, I most definitely am not – but rather that I (usually) don’t drunkenly humiliate myself these days.
Asha,
The dogs are not barking!
AE
“ As I have posted previously, my operating thesis is ‘the Coalition is a clear and present danger to the national security of Australia.’
The fact that polling consistently rates them ‘better on national security/economy’ is either miraculous achievement, neo-fascistic disinformation or widespread stupidity – or all three.”
Yes this is exactly why Labor should have a judicial inquiry/RC into defence purchasing. It is in the national interest to stop the waste and Labor’s interest to demolish the myth of Liberal defence toughness.
GG:
….what?
Asha,
Your knowledge of Sherlock is shit then!
Well, thats… undeniably true.
Asha,
I will leave you to edumacate yourself.
”
Snappy Tomsays:
Saturday, March 5, 2022 at 5:29 pm
Greensborough Growler at 4.56pm re Warne
I’m one who has mixed views about Warne. Genius on the field (except in India) but not off it.
”
SnappyTom
You are the first Australian to acknowledge (except in India).
I think it is fair comment to say not just in India but against India in general (I am talking about Warne). 🙂
A very moving story, and also an indication of life in China:
“‘He’s vomiting blood. I beg you. Please save him’: A grim tale from Wuhan, early 2020” https://www.watoday.com.au/world/asia/he-s-vomiting-blood-i-beg-you-please-save-him-a-grim-tale-from-wuhan-early-2020-20220120-p59puy.html
I hope Warnie’s demise doesn’t overshadow the great performance by these two young Pakistani batters.
You cricket tragics can tell me when was the last time a test team were 1 for 313 and counting against Australia. When was the last time Nathan Lyon was 1 for 114 and counting. And when was an opponent’s second wicket partnership worth 206 and counting.
Ul Haq and Ali have faced 620 deliveries between them.
PB commentator’s curse. As soon as I praised them, Ul Haq falls to Pat Cummins for 157.
I have fond memories of being in bay 13 at the MCG joining in the ‘Warnie, Warnie’ drunk cricket tragics chorus over several summers in younger days whilst he cleaned up the best batsmen from OS wondering how the hell to play him. He had tricks and intelligence on the field and untamed self belief. Off the field he was another story but when he was on fire it was magic to watch. Fond memories of a cricketing genius make me raise a toast to him, despite his imperfections.
b,
Fuck em.
Playing on a track with no bounce, no swing and just being able to occupy the crease is nothing special.
Ven at 6.56pm re Warne in/against India
Warne’s Test career bowling average was about 25.
In India, 40.
Against India in Australia, 62.
So, yeah…
”
beguiledagainsays:
Saturday, March 5, 2022 at 7:07 pm
I hope Warnie’s demise doesn’t overshadow the great performance by these two young Pakistani batters.
You cricket tragics can tell me when was the last time a test team were 1 for 313 and counting against Australia. When was the last time Nathan Lyon was 1 for 114 and counting. And when was an opponent’s second wicket partnership worth 206 and counting.
Ul Haq and Ali have faced 620 deliveries between them.
PB commentator’s curse. As soon as I praised them, Ul Haq falls to Pat Cummins for 157.
”
Well I have nothing to say because I seem to generate contempt for some posters with my comments. 🙂
snappy,
It’s a pity that he took 708 Test wickets
Resembles the last two tours to the UAE against Pakistan (2014 and 2018) where Pakistan won the toss every time, made huge scores and we avoided a thrashing once c/- Khawaja.
Greensborough Growler
Not a shame at all, in my view. No champion achieves sporting perfection. Warne just destroyed basically everyone other than India.
Of course, the India-centric cricket blogosphere periodically raves on and on about how Bradman wasn’t as good as Tendulkar, Bradman only toured England etc etc. thus Bradman’s 99.94 needs to be heavily discounted.
Yeah, nah. Lets provide Tendulkar (or any modern batsman) with Bradman’s protective gear (no helmet, for a start) and uncovered pitches etc etc
Bradman is as close to sporting perfection as there is, Warne and a few others at a slightly lower level.
Currently viewing on Netflix Winter On Fire, a documentary on the 2014 “Maidan” uprising in Ukraine.
If you get a chance…. just watch it. (98 minutes).
This is what Russia is up against if they win the battle. There’s a lot of war yet to come.
”
Snappy Tomsays:
Saturday, March 5, 2022 at 7:41 pm
Greensborough Growler
Not a shame at all, in my view. No champion achieves sporting perfection. Warne just destroyed basically everyone other than India.
Of course, the India-centric cricket blogosphere periodically raves on and on about how Bradman wasn’t as good as Tendulkar, Bradman only toured England etc etc. thus Bradman’s 99.94 needs to be heavily discounted.
Yeah, nah. Lets provide Tendulkar (or any modern batsman) with Bradman’s protective gear (no helmet, for a start) and uncovered pitches etc etc
Bradman is as close to sporting perfection as there is, Warne and a few others at a slightly lower level.
”
Agreed.
Shellbell,
Totally agree.
The Pakistani culture seems to be never lose.
A grinding draw is OK.
25 years and we finally find out why there is no Test Cricket played in Pakistan.
Pakistan has collapsed.
2/354
Money laundering UK style. Excellent presentation.
https://twitter.com/ByDonkeys/status/1499766468610863106?s=20&t=2kMKGtlSN_RNnvypjkl_NA
More nice thoughts on Warnie.
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/commentisfree/2022/mar/05/shane-warne-dead-but-he-was-immortal-he-was-never-meant-to-die