Federal polling: Morgan, Queensland YouGov, Newspoll extras

Labor maintains a thumping lead in the latest fortnightly Roy Morgan, albeit that a fair bit has happened in the world since it was conducted.

For those of you following the South Australian election, note the new post immediately below this one. For the rest of you:

• The latest fortnightly Roy Morgan poll has Labor leading 56.5-43.5, in from 57-43 last time, from primary votes of Coalition 32.5% (down half), Labor 37.5% (down one), Greens 12.5% (up one), One Nation 3.5% (down half) and United Australia Party on 1.5% (steady). The state two-party breakdowns have Labor leading 56.5-43.5 in New South Wales (in from 59-41 for a swing of around 9%), 60-40 in Victoria (out from 57.5-42.5 for a swing of around 7%), 52-48 in Western Australia (in from 53.5-46.5 for a swing of around 7.5%), 59.5-40.5 in South Australia (steady for a swing of around 9%) and 75-25 in Tasmania (a swing of 19%, with the inevitable proviso that this is from a tiny sample). The result in Queensland is 50-50, compared with 51.5-48.5 to Labor last time, for a swing of around 8.5%. The poll had a sample of 2261 and was conducted from February 14 to 23, long lead times before publication having become a feature of Roy Morgan’s polling of late.

• The Courier-Mail had results on federal politics from the same YouGov poll for which it published Queensland state voting intention results on Saturday, though this did not include straight results on voting intention. The poll found Scott Morrison at 41% approval and 47% disapproval in Queensland, with Anthony Albanese at 32% and 38%. Forty-three per cent thought a “Morrison Liberal-National Coalition government” would be better for Queensland compared with 39% for “an Albanese Labor government”. The poll was conducted February 18 to 23 from a sample of 1021.

• The Australian yesterday had follow-up questions from the weekend Newspoll on various questions of national security, which found 33% favouring Scott Morrison and the Coalition on handling the threat of China and 26% favouring Anthony Albanese and Labor, compared with 31% and 26% when the question was previously asked a month ago, with respective results of 30% and 24% on a similar question involving the threat of Russia. Seventy-four per cent felt China posed a threat to Australian national security compared with 18% who didn’t, while 64% held such a view in relation to Russia compared with 27% who didn’t.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,871 thoughts on “Federal polling: Morgan, Queensland YouGov, Newspoll extras”

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  1. I’ve said before the only plan that begins to make sense to me is for Putin to split Ukraine into two (if he can take the major cities and take down the Ukrainian government). However I strongly doubt ethnic/language continuity will have anything much to do with it, beyond some superficial justification – it would be about creating the client buffer state in the Eastern ‘half’, leaving the Western remainder to take whoever might (inconceivable as it might be) not wish to live under Russian control. Kyiv would be a non-negotiable part of the Eastern portion because Mother Russia. It might obviously make sense for the Eastern ‘half’ to also take a Southern corridor to Transnistria, which might also happen to coincide with language/ethnic prevalence, but again the guiding principles would be strategic and sentimentalist-nationalist IMO.

  4. “poroti says:
    Wednesday, March 2, 2022 at 9:44 am
    Boerwar
    Re “1. He splits Ukraine into Russian/Ukrainian ethnic langauage lines. ” .Check out the map from the 2010 Ukraine election. A bigly split along basically ethnic lines.”

    … and both sides of the ethnic divide have been engaged in a bloody civil war for a few years now. No wonder Putin is trying to use the language that Russian forces are coming as “peacemakers”. It may sound ridiculous to us, but it may not be so ridiculous to the People of Eastern Ukraine. Ukraine is going to split, that’s pretty much guaranteed. The question is: Along which lines?…. If Putin is smart he will offer a line of demarcation that’s likely to remain stable into the future.

  5. RE Putin, I found this very interesting:

    https://youtu.be/VEuzW1BXZXQ

    I think having a wasteland Ukraine next to Russia is much much better than having a successful country. It is also illustrative if you are a Russian general or civic leader than even though Russia is a cruel failing middle power, it has much of the military hangover of being a super power.

    So if you are in Russia well perhaps just sucking it up for a decade or two more is better than risking death and almost certainly becoming a refugee (that nobody wants, particularly those greedy racist arseholes in the UK and Australia).

    If this holds up on any level it does mean that things in Russia are really bad. But that makes it all the more real and Putin all the more desperate.

    It is just one of thousands of analytical frameworks in which it is obvious the ‘Xi Putin Same’ is simplistic idiotic drivel.

  6. What happens when your contracts are torn up:

    ‘This is not a time for me to make music and perform. I have therefore decided to take a step back from performing for the time being. It is an extremely difficult decision for me, but I know that my audience will understand and respect this decision.’

    The black eyed blowsy Gergiev and Putin apologist soprano Anna Netrebko withdraws from performing. Her statement (via Zurich Opera) included a denunciation of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which also ran on her twitter feed before being withdrawn as I understand it, but then the last photo she posted was yet another one with …. Gergiev.

    https://slippedisc.com/2022/03/breaaking-netrebko-cancels-everything/

  7. Something I’ve been wondering about the flood response – I’m in Griffith and the elected Greens here seem to be extremely vocal organising some of the clean-up getting people power etc. If you’re in a flood-affected area, has your MP/Candidate been out and about to a similar extent, or is this kind of visibility something that could put them over the line in Griffith?

  8. A belated thank you to C@t and continued best wishes to BK.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/a-matter-of-justice-labor-s-o-neil-backs-aged-care-wage-hike-20220301-p5a0ox.html

    Albo under pressure to commit to aged care pay rise?

    Am I not correct in recalling Albo has been asked about this and has said WTTE ‘there is an aged care wage case before FWC. The govt should support the union’s submission.’

    Yet its Albo who’s under pressure? FFS!!!

  10. A trade war between the EU and Russia?
    Hmmm, the export-imports of goods have been tending to decrease and balance over the years.
    With regard to services, the EU exports more services to Russia than what it imports.
    Therefore it’s possible that a trade war between the EU and Russia will affect more negatively the EU than Russia. Given the trend in the trade in goods, it almost looks like that the Russians have been preparing themselves for a confrontation with the EU, by increasing their protection against the inevitable trade war in case of tension.
    https://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/countries-and-regions/countries/russia/

  11. From Shakespeare…

    ‘It is better to have not offered fighter jets at all than to have offered them and then withdrawn the offer.’

  12. zoomster says:
    Wednesday, March 2, 2022 at 8:45 am
    I do like the way Morrison assumes that he’s just got the equivalent of a bad cold.

    And in the middle of a covid pandemic! What chance that it might be covid?

  13. Morrison most likely is ill but not ill enough to hand over the resins to the idiotic Barnaby Joyce.

    Wouldn’t trust Barnaby with any resins…

  16. Simon Katich @ #97 Wednesday, March 2nd, 2022 – 8:46 am

    When you corner a lion you either offer it an escape route or get ready for a mess.

    What about a paper tiger?

    Also Putin’s escape route is easy. Withdraw. Stop invading places.

    I agree with BW.

    Problem there is that no rationale was put forward for why Putin would or should be allowed to get away with doing any of the 3 posited outcomes. Kinda like he picks a thing to do, and the rest of the world, which has spent the past week uniting against Putin, just plays along. Why though?

  17. The economic damage will be pervasive. It sits on top of the Brexit damage.

    My Dutch cuzzes, who export tulips to Russia (the Russians like long-stemmed tulips, BTW), are getting burnt by this War.

  18. Morrison could cite illness and resign as leader of the federal Liberal party

    Josh Frydenberg becomes the Leader of the federal Liberal Party and prime Minister

  19. OK, if fighter jets are too provocative, is there a type of portable weapons system (preferably suitcase sized) that can substitute for an air strike/artillery barrage on Russia’s supply convoys?

    Something where a small (guerilla) team can ‘paint’ a target and another team can launch a weapon from kms away to take out some vehicles and disrupt the supply chain?

    Or would that be too ‘provocative’ (FFS)?

    I love/hate the clip posted earlier where a journo confronts BoJo with ‘what is the alternative to a no fly zone? Ukrainian children dying?’

    There is no risk-free way for NATO to support Ukraine, but ‘please know’ that Putin is, in fact, the provocateur here, FFS (again!)

  20. ar

    I deliberately used the word ‘most likely’.

    As I have often noted:
    (1) half of all wars are started by the other side.
    (2) almost no wars go the way the war starters thinks they will.

    In this case the imponderables are greater than usual because dictators personalize the wars and dictators are unaccountable.

    I note in passing that Putin’s pattern it is to fight, negotiate an outcome, and then freeze the conflict.

  21. Tom says:
    Wednesday, March 2, 2022 at 10:23 am
    Victoria @ #86 Wednesday, March 2nd, 2022 – 9:32 am

    Meanwhile the EU has accepted Ukraine’s application to join the EU.

    Putin is going to be even more pissed.
    I would imagine that is so that the EU can cut all gas payments to Russia due to Russia attacking a member state without being penalised…

    This is an absolutely spurious claim. Ukraine applied for membership of the EU at a moment of acute distress and the EU has approved the application from solidarity with Ukraine.

    The next Cold War has commenced. It should have resumed after Crimea. Perhaps the last one should never have been wound down. Clearly, in Russia, it never ended and what we now see is merely the resumption of old hostilities.

  23. Snappy Tom
    Most of Ukraine is poor guerilla country.
    A lot of it has been cleared.
    A lot of it is in the form of huge wheat paddocks.
    It is flat.
    At this time of the year much of the forest is leafless.
    If you get anywhere near that convoy you would likely be spotted and that would be that because as every Greens Disarmament Commentator would tell you, when a Light Mobile Force runs into the real thing the Light Armed Force gets massacred.
    IMO, given that the whole Ukraine Army is somewhere other than that convoy, the best hope in the current circumstances would be IEDs.
    But clearly the Ukrainians are nowhere near the standards of the Taliban when it comes to IEDs.
    So far.

  24. Burgey

    The thing about veterans like Farr and Atkins is they have seen governments in action for decades and know a shocker when they see one.
    Not sure which of the two described Morrison as the worst liar he had seen in Canberra and he’d seen a few.
    A lot of reporting now is done by people who think a tweet is news.

  25. Thanks to sproket for linking to this guy last night. Brilliant, charismatic, and fearless. Bald and Bankrupt, with as of February 2022, his main channel having 3.36 million subscribers and 472 million views. The latest two videos are very compelling, on the ground, Ukraine/Russia border explorations. Warning – it’s a deep rabbit hole, and compelling is barely strong enough.

    https://www.youtube.com/c/baldandbankrupt/featured

    He see’s the Dnieper as the not unexpected divide between east and west.

  26. Cronus

    Boerwar
    “ Agree. Outcome somewhat uncertain. Home Front rocky. United his enemies like never before.”

    And I agree with you summation. There are so many unknowables in play right now, so many unknown unknowns, except of course for Putin’s overwhelming military superiority.

  27. a r –

    Problem there is that no rationale was put forward for why Putin would or should be allowed to get away with doing any of the 3 posited outcomes. Kinda like he picks a thing to do, and the rest of the world, which has spent the past week uniting against Putin, just plays along. Why though?

    (a) Because the rest of the world has made it clear they won’t put troops on the ground or planes in the air over Ukraine.

    So it’s down to the people of Ukraine to resist (along with substantial material help from the West while they hold out), but if the Ukrainian government goes down and the Russians take the large cities then the Russians will dictate terms and the rest of the world can do nothing – see (a) above – but support an insurgency, which is once again down to the people of Ukraine.

    Suppressing the whole of Ukraine is not possible, but with some clever slicing and dicing and allowing those who might resist an outlet, and with brutal suppression where he needs to, Putin knows the people of Ukraine will just want to get on with their lives, and knowing the rest of the world won’t do anything concrete militarily, a new status quo will emerge and after a few years everyone will have moved on.

    In case you hadn’t noticed the people of the West collectively have the attention spans of goldfish, and there is money to be made dontcha know.

  28. Any of the greens guys here.

    I’m reading a report that suggests there is still a 50% chance that net zero emissions by 2050 would still cap temperature rise as 1.5 degrees.

    I didn’t think the current science was that optimistic.

    I can’t tell from the graphs if they’ve front ended the transition (which obviously gives better results but is very unrealistic given current behaviour patterns)

  30. “In case you hadn’t noticed the people of the West collectively have the attention spans of goldfish, and there is money to be made dontcha know.”

    Business as usual before all else, who cares who we kill or how.

  31. Boerwar

    “I note in passing that Putin’s pattern it is to fight, negotiate an outcome, and then freeze the conflict.”

    This is certainly true for the past, but at no stage has Putin encountered the kind of response he is facing now. The Ukrainians may be far more emboldened to demand full withdrawal and renunciation of the recognition of the breakaway regions than was possible for, for example, Georgia. Indeed, Georgians might be feeling a bit like chopped liver seeing the world get behind Ukraine in a way they could only have dreamed.

    While I’m here, the arming of civilians by Ukraine blurs the line dangerously between combatant and non-combatant in the laws of war. Combatants (uniformed soldiers) are discernible from civilians. Non-uniformed militia are not.

  33. Boerwar, there is at least one other resolution to the ‘cornered lion’ scenario: shoot the lion.

    Metaphor, of course.

    If Putin gets anything close to what he wants out his invasion, it will amount to an act of appeasement by the West. Finland et al should then feel increased nervousness.

    There are, of course, many ways to ‘shoot’ the lion. Putin has taken steps to freeze Russia’s finance sector due to sanctions. Ordinary Russians can’t access their own money. Will he be ‘shot’ by his own? Cash riots? Food riots? Storming the Winter Palace?

    Depends how long Ukraine can resist – in both conventional and guerilla forms.

    I also think taking Kyiv and Kharkiv may be difficult. Sure, they’re under siege and Putin is therefore killing civilians, but cities are hard for conventional armies to take if the party holding the city refuses to surrender. The more the besieger reduces the city to rubble, the more places for snipers, portable missile teams and Molotov cocktail throwers to hide.

    Of course, Putin will blame civilian deaths on the ‘Nazis’ he’s trying to root out. Bullshit.

  35. Rewi at 10.45am

    It is Putin who has blurred the lines of the laws of war.

    He hasn’t declared war! This is a ‘special military operation!’

  36. Q:In case you hadn’t noticed the people of the West collectively have the attention spans of goldfish

    I actually think that is one of the dangers of the modern social media society….outrage after outrage is occurring at high speed- and people just lap it up and move on. There is no context, analysis or consequence to anything, just the next big noisy thing.

  37. Snappy Tom

    I’m not suggesting, and never have, that Putin and his regime are not committing crimes. I think assertions regarding those crimes are well-covered on Pollbludger.

  38. As always late for birthday wishes, here is another one

    Comrade Albanese turned 59 yesterday. God even he is younger than me.

  39. I totally agree that European countries are right to stand up to the murderous Putin in the way they are. However, some inconvenient truths remain, e.g.
    “Sarah Abdallah@sahouraxo · 51m
    BREAKING: Yemen is being heavily bombed right now by US-UK-armed Saudi Arabia and the UAE, yet again.
    Why don’t Yemeni lives matter to the Western mainstream media?”

  40. Rossmcg says:
    Wednesday, March 2, 2022 at 9:24 am
    What time do people think we’ll get the first photos of Morrison “working” in isolation?

    He should get one of those super long tables that Putin uses. Then one of those sumo suits.
    Keep him away from other people.

  41. All good Rewi.

    Putin won’t respect the rights of civilians anyway, any who oppose him being ‘Nazis.’

    In case anyone is wondering, Putin disgusts me. Unfortunately, he is part of an extremely long list.

    As a theologian, the human abuse of power becomes (for me, at least) the credible edge for reflecting on notions of ‘sin.’ (Not some ‘original sin’ thing, more like Cate Blanchet’s character introducing the Extended ‘Lord of the Rings’ – Aragorn’s ancestor had an opportunity to destroy the Ring of Power but (WTTE) ‘the race of men…desire above all things, power…’)

  42. OMG ! First time since , early November (?) , actual rain is falling is falling out here in The Cave’s capital. It would be considered a ‘Scotch Mist’ by beleaguered NSW + Qld. residents though. I hope it signals a change in whatever weather pattern has formed over East.

  43. ar seems to be posting on the assumption that either the obvious nuclear tripwires are mere Putin bluffs, or that any consequent nuclear war would be winnable.

    I heard someone from the Chatham House think tank describing those people that point to the obvious nuclear trip wires for the lack of muscular – and hence direct – support for Ukraine as ‘useful fools’.

    Count me as one of those ‘useful fools’.

    I suspect that ar and Chatham House dude may be right. Perhaps as much as 99 times out a hundred times right on ‘the bluff’ aspect. In my view that is not nearly good enough. Even if they are wrong 1% of the time, then we are looking down the barrel of an extinction level event. This is an unacceptable risk in my view.

    I also suspect the Russian Military, viewed as a whole, is one giant Potemkin Village: most of its strength appears only on paper. I think we are seeing some of the gap between the paper capability and practice at play in the last 6 days of offensive operations. However, I also strongly suspect that key aspects of Russia’s military strength are very very real. At the tip of the spear in that regard is its nuclear arsenal and capability. I believe that the United States – and its NATO allies – have a very keen appreciation of that reality. It explains entirely why Biden – and NATO – ruled out ‘boots on the ground’. It explains entirely why Ukraine is very unlikely to get a no fly zone – even though, as ar observes, they deserve one.

    What we now have in Ukraine is the first Proxy War of what is potentially a new Cold War between a handful of despots and the established post WW2 world order. Xi is watching this very keenly and the conclusions he draws could go either way (but in my view its actually likely – and certainly desirable – that he will decide to effectively pull his ambitions in and focus on the immense domestic hurdles he faces over the next decade to lift the rest of the Chinese population out of poverty).

    A key feature of Proxy Wars is testing those trip wires so that as much as possible support can be given to the proxy (in this case Ukraine) without setting off any one of those trip wires. that is why – apparently Poland and other eastern NATO countries promised additional surplus Jet Fighters only to not follow through (although there could be a multitude of logistical reasons why they couldn’t be delivered, given that even old jet fighters are immensely complicated items of kit and … they may not even be operational – or at least serviceable – anymore).

    So that’s why we are seeing lots of useful small arms – like javelin missile systems (the ‘stinger missile’ of the 2020s?) being sent in to Ukraine. It is of concern that Morrison is not only promising ‘lethal’ aid but going about it as he usually does – in full bugle horn mode. I wonder if THAT could inadvertently add to the pressure faced by the West to do as much as possible without setting off those pesky trip wires. It wouldn’t surprise me if his cac handled approach makes matters much worse. After all, they certainly have with China. …

  44. citizen at 11.13am

    Sumo suits and social distancing…there’s a thought!

    The ‘Rona Suit’: a hyper-Sumo suit that creates a 1.5m space between you and anyone else! No more social distancing worries! Just combine with an attractive mask (not included) and help stop the spread!

    Find creative new ways to get through doorways! No need to calculate how many can fit into a lift, ‘Rona Suit’ makes overcrowding impossible! No need to work from home, you can adjust your office chair or metal working lathe or giant mining truck driver’s seat and go back to the work place!

    That’s right, ‘Rona Suit’ saves the economy!

    Another completely useless product from you know who…

  45. I love Domain, the real estate section of the SMH that is gradually taking over its pages like some kind of algal bloom.

    Last week it was: “If you want a tree-change or a sea-change hurry, because prices are only going one way: up. Sellers, on the other hand, can afford to wait.”

    This week it’s: “If you want a tree-change or a sea change take your time, because prices are only going one way: down. Sellers, on the other hand, can’t afford to wait.”

  46. Cronus

    Boerwar
    “ IMO, given that the whole Ukraine Army is somewhere other than that convoy, the best hope in the current circumstances would be IEDs.
    But clearly the Ukrainians are nowhere near the standards of the Taliban when it comes to IEDs.”

    In the absence of other major weaponry, Ukraine will be relying on IED’s (fantastically frightening weapons from my own personal experience, every soldier’s nightmare) and then close quarters fighting in the cities and streets. Ukraine as we know it architecturally will never be the same.

  47. poroti, I was there dying in the heat over Christmas and wishing for just one day of rain – I’m sure the smell of the rain would be amazing right now.

  48. Armchair Generals as a term has been around for a while but I just came across a LOL alternative that is just as good. Let’s hear it for the fighting 101st Chairborne Division

  49. So, it seems that we are about to start the ‘5th Battle of Kharkov (Kharkiv)’. Von Manstein won the 4th battle, 79 years ago next month, only to come well and truly unstuck at Kursk three months later. The fields outside Stalingrad, Kharkiv and around the Kursk salient are boneyards even today. … 🙁

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