Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor

Little change in Labor’s commanding position in Newspoll, as Scott Morrison’s personal ratings recover a little and Anthony Albanese records his best result in nearly a year.

The latest fortnightly (consistently so now, it seems) federal voting intention result from Newspoll has Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 55-45, from primary votes of Coalition 35% (up one), Labor 41% (steady), Greens 9% (up one) and One Nation 3% (steady). It also includes for the first time this term a reading for the United Australia Party, who are at 4%. The leaders’ ratings find Scott Morrison recovering a little, up three on approval to 43% and down one on disapproval to 55%, but has even more favourable movement for Anthony Albanese, who is up four on approval to 44% and down three on disapproval to 43%. Albanese has almost closed the gap on preferred prime minister, now trailing 42-40, in from 43-38 last fortnight.

Full report here from The Australian; the poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1525.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,304 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor”

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  1. Socrates @ Tuesday, March 1, 2022 at 6:52 pm

    Good post. I do think this sort of information is needed. The Greens do have the capacity to change their policy over time. They no longer have a policy to close down Lucas Heights immediately for instance 🙂

  4. Frankston is a nice place to make a movie about the world ending. But, it’s just a little off Broadway for thespians.

    You’re thinking of Dandenong.

  6. ‘poroti says:
    Tuesday, March 1, 2022 at 6:48 pm

    Boerwar at 6:33 pm
    Re the Donbas ‘rebels’ . If the maps I’ve seen are true the Ukraine army fighting the ‘rebels’ may be in big trouble. Russian forces coming from the north and south behind the Donbas ‘front lines’ could be only a couple of days away from ‘kettling’ the Ukraine army. Which , if it happens, would be a disaster .’
    ———————————————
    yep

  10. The US and its allies have imposed sanctions on Russia’s central bank, its top businesses, oligarchs and officials, including Vladimir Putin himself, and barred some Russian banks from the Swift international payments system.

    “We are going to deliver a total economic and financial war against Russia,” Le Maire told France Info radio. “We are going to provoke the collapse of the Russian economy.”

    What happens when the Cyber War starts between Russia & the West?

    Or is there such a thing as Cyber MAD?

  11. poroti:

    Tuesday, March 1, 2022 at 6:48 pm

    As it’s oft said, the first casualty is…? Far too early to predict the outcome of a conscripted army.

  13. Mavis at 8:58 pm
    I’m quite aware of that. Just as I’m quite aware ‘we’ are at least as enthusiastic about bullshitting the public as ‘they’ are.

  15. If wealthy Russians were to go down, where Putin hides his money, he’s not going to last much longer. What the West must do is get serious about substantive sanctions, sequestration – eg, 5th Avenue, Mayfair mansions.

  16. Case closed re the “40 mile’ russian convoy ? This is from the company that takes the satellite photos.
    .
    Russian convoy of ground forces, tanks moving toward Kyiv, Maxar says

    A satellite image shows Russian ground forces northeast of Ivankiv heading in the direction of Kyiv, Ukraine, February 27, 2022. Satellite image ©2022 Maxar Technologies/Handout via REUTERS/File Photo
    WASHINGTON, Feb 27 (Reuters) – Satellite imagery taken on Sunday showed a large deployment of Russian ground forces including tanks moving in the direction of the Ukrainian capital Kyiv from approximately 40 miles (64 km) away, a private U.S. company said.

    The images released by Maxar Technologies Inc (MAXR.N) showed a deployment comprised of hundreds of military vehicles and extending more than 3.25 miles (5 km), Maxar said.

    The convey was situated northeast of the Ukrainian city of Ivankiv and contained fuel, logistics and armored vehicles including tanks, infantry fighting vehicles and self-propelled artillery, it said.
    https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-convoy-ground-forces-fuel-tanks-moving-toward-kyiv-maxar-2022-02-27/
    https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-convoy-ground-forces-fuel-tanks-moving-toward-kyiv-maxar-2022-02-27/

  17. meher baba:

    And, supposedly (I struggle to believe this), at around the same time someone, somewhere in Tasmania also cut a line, but they can’t work out who or why.

    The location of the fault in Tasmania is the improbably named Doctor’s Rocks.

  18. What? Please tell me this is a joke!

    Yes. Wayne is a joke.

    But the funniest thing is that so many take “him” seriously.

  19. poroti:

    Tuesday, March 1, 2022 at 9:20 pm

    [‘Mavis at 8:58 pm

    I’m quite aware of that. Just as I’m quite aware ‘we’ are at least as enthusiastic about bullshitting the public as ‘they’ are.’]

    Thank Gawd for that. I was starting to think 5th columnist.

  21. If you plug the 8% swing (it was more but let’s say 8) that Morgan claims is the minimum in all states … ALP would win with 97 seats!

    Fairies at the bottom of the garden type stuff but one can dream!

  22. Mavis – the UK could easily force the Cayman Islands and British Virgin Islands’ banks to open the books to find the Russian cash but that will cause all sorts issues for the Tory party donors.

  24. Confessions @ #1207 Tuesday, March 1st, 2022 – 7:16 pm

    The Liberal Party is set to install disability campaigner David Brady as its candidate to take on Zali Steggall in the formerly blue ribbon seat of Warringah, as the clock ticks down towards a federal intervention in the NSW division.

    Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s deadline for state party officials to endorse three sitting MPs flew past on Monday and the federal executive is scheduled to meet on Thursday to consider intervening to choose candidates in nine crucial NSW seats.

    In Warringah, a prized Liberal stronghold until it was lost by former prime minister Tony Abbott at the last election, only one formal nominee remains – defence analyst Lincoln Parker – after front-runner Jane Buncle suddenly withdrew in January.

    But senior Liberals, unimpressed by Mr Parker, went searching for alternative candidates and have approached Mr Brady as the best person to revive the party’s fortunes in the seat and make inroads against Ms Steggall, even if he is unlikely to win.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/liberals-push-to-install-disability-campaigner-as-warringah-candidate-20220301-p5a0lq.html

    You’d think they could at least find a woman alternative. Clearly there ARE no women in today’s Liberal party.

    For a profoundly deaf Disability Campaigner, this guy is a Liberal through and through and has already learned the first lesson of being a Liberal. Lie:

    From his 2019 Senate application page he says he will:

    Advocate for the growth in maturity of the National Disability Insurance Scheme. It’s our Party’s greatest but quiet legacy where we are implementing next-gen welfare prevention of which in future we should look to apply the same principles to all social services programs so no Australians will be left behind.

    HIS party’s greatest legacy!?! Excuse me!?!

    And it’s all about ‘next-gen welfare prevention’ where the Liberal Party should look to ‘apply the same principles to all social services programs’ !?! That sounds barbaric! Not all disabled people are capable of fulfilling the onerous requirements that the Liberals mete out to others!

    And he’s just another ‘small government’ libertarian:

    I believe that all Australians to have the inalienable right and individual freedom, to make choices with minimal government interference to succeed in their lives for the benefit of themselves, their families, and their communities. I am the living embodiment of the Liberal philosophy “individuals should decide their destinies not governments”.

    Okay I guess if you have been born, disabled, into a world of privilege. Like, who really needs government then, huh David?

    Anyway, you can see his slick video and read his presentation here:

    https://www.davidbrady.info/

  25. The mysteries of polling!

    There is good reason to refuse to believe Labor will achieve 56% 2PP at the next election – the party hasn’t done so since WW2. Not even with Hawke.

    I’ve skimmed through some of the bigger (not an exhaustive list!) post-WW2 election 2PPs:
    1966 LNP 56.9
    1975 LNP 55.7
    1977 LNP 54.6
    1996 LNP 53.6
    2013 LNP 53.5
    1983 ALP 53.2
    2007 ALP 52.7

    I have no records to back this up, but I don’t remember hearing of polling leading up to, say 1996 or 2013 with the Coalition in the low 60s 2PP, which then tightened to 53 point something.

    Two nasty realities: 1) even wildly popular ALP leaders don’t lead the party to really big 2PP results; 2) even consistently brilliant polling for the ALP leading up to an election is more likely to narrow at the election than it does for the LNP.

    The electorate has a lot to answer for!

    I hope Labor can achieve a high 52 2PP. Coupled with uneven swings, I hope to see Dutton sent packing by Ali France and Frydenberg by Monique Ryan. I hope Labor can win 80 seats – which may happen on high 52 2PP. I also hope the cross bench is expanded, making the LNP’s road back to government very long.

    I still think the electorate has a lot to answer for…

  26. Leon:

    Which comedian would you prefer as Australian Primeminister?

    Hannah Gadsby?

    A duumvirate of Roy and HG?

    Adam Hills?

    Tim Minchin?

    Julia Zemiro?

    Akmal Saleh?

    Ross Noble would be a wild ride!

  28. There aren’t many entertainers who’d make good leadership material. An honorable exception might be Sam Newman.

  29. frednk at 10.08pm

    I love Sen Mccaskill saying ‘If everyone in the Republican Party wasn’t so anxious to blame Pres. Biden for the Sun coming up in the morning…’

  31. Comedic front bench (with some portfolio suggestions):
    Roy & HG
    Magda
    Denis ‘Constitution/Mabo/Vibe’ Denuto – Attorney General
    Jean Kitson
    Judith Lucy – Foreign Minister
    Santo, Sam & Ed
    Billy Birmingham
    Elle McFeast – Special Minister of State for the Rugby Codes (as punishment for her, and the codes)
    Kath & Kim

  33. Snappy Tom
    The problem with reading too much into TPP is that the ALP holds many of its heartland seats by larger margins than the Liberals hold their heartland seats and that lessens the potential swing the ALP can achieve.

  36. Finally some rain in my neck of woods tonight.
    Bearing in mind the huge amount of rain so far up north.
    Also the forecast for Sydney to get a huge downpour tmrw.
    Stay safe people

  38. I know a few comedians, including at least one mentioned above. Most (although not all) of them are actually pretty intelligent when you meet them out of their stage persona.

    In fact, I’m mates with one who stood as a candidate in the Vic state election a few cycles ago…

  44. Evacuating Ballina hospital now. 55 patients to the a local catholic school.

    Firefox, for all his annoyance, is down there somewhere…

  45. New milestone for SfM, the welding mask vid has made it to the youtube fails circuit – another first for the great leader.

  50. I should add that Grace Tame posted at 4:41pm and Morrison tweets “I took a further test this evening after developing a fever late today. The test was inconclusive so I took a PCR test tonight, which returned a positive result late this evening.”

    Prescient 🙂

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