It’s been a big couple of days for state opinion polls: a shock Newspoll from South Australia three weeks out from the election, a YouGov poll showing Labor still in front in Queensland, and a Resolve Strategic finding that Labor is back in the game in New South Wales. As well as all that, I can offer the following summary of miscellaneous developments to hang a new open thread off:
• The Age/Herald has related that the small sample of 170 Western Australian respondents from the recent Resolve Strategic poll had 64% supporting Mark McGowan’s decision to scrap the originally proposed date of February 5 for reopening the state’s border, with only 32% opposed. This compares with 39% and 47% respectively from the national sample of 1604.
• The Liberal National Party candidate for the Labor-held marginal seat of Lilley in Brisbane, Ryan Shaw, has announced his withdrawal. Shaw is an army veteran who served in East Timor and Afghanistan, and said he had made the decision to focus on his mental health.
• Lara Alexander will become one of the three Liberal members for Bass in the Tasmanian state parliament after winning the recount to succeed Sarah Courtney. This involved counting the ballots that elected Courtney at the election last May, which found Alexander prevailing over rival Liberal candidate Simon Wood by 5671 votes (52.9%) to 5051 (47.1%).
• The Poll Bludger, individually and collectively, was greatly saddened to hear of the death of Zoe Wilson, a.k.a. Lizzie, an unfailingly civil contributor to the forum of long standing, as was related yesterday in comments by Zoomster.
Thank you BK for the dawn patrol.
C@tmomma:
Saturday, February 26, 2022 at 10:39 am
[‘Mavis @ #79 Saturday, February 26th, 2022 – 10:32 am
This could get dirtier than it already is:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10552743/Furious-Putin-prepares-use-father-bombs-brave-Ukrainians-hold-advance.html
A thermobaric bomb dropped by the US on Taliban in Afghanistan in 2017 weighed 21,600 pounds and left a crater more than 300 meters (1,000 feet) wide after it exploded six feet above the ground.
And the Taliban ended up winning the war. ‘]
Yep. But the Ukrainians don’t have a chance though they’re being conspicuously brave against an overwhelmingly superior foe. Putin is a savage, who’s deserving of a bullet to the head asap, the reforms of Gorbachev now a distant memory.
While we’re on the subject, Australia recorded a 35% increase year on year of antisemitic incidents in 2021.
https://www.ecaj.org.au/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/ECAJ-Antisemitism-Report-2021.pdf
Socrates @ #43 Saturday, February 26th, 2022 – 9:37 am
This is all very true.
But equally as true is that there are Labor mp’s as well who are installed primarily to protect the coal, gas and petroleum industries with subsidies exemptions. We can’t just ignore this.
We need to unshackle the parliament that has been controlled by these puppets and we need need to get Australia on track in modern world thinking.
This is a time to re-calibrate our partisan leanings to prioritise proper climate/energy policy.
Socrates @ Saturday, February 26, 2022 at 10:22 am
I find it unsettling that India’s interest in abstaining and not enforcing sanctions against Russia due to its reliance on Russian military tech to protect itself against China, has resulting in India placing itself in the same side as China (and Pakistan) during this conflict. Strange bedfellows.
Thankyou BK
I didn’t click the link, but the message in the quote is very true.
Aged Care is a huge issue that affects all demographics and will only become more important.
The L/NP will shortly pay the ultimate price for their neglect and arrogance in not properly managing this sector and favouring the for-profiteers.
A lot of Labor-Greens Wars here have been stoked by Labor partisans – me included.
A lot, but not all.
We have Rex this morning, playing a pathetic ‘same-same’ card. Rex approves a post that correctly criticises the Coalition’s failures re EVs, then immediately pivots to ‘but Labor is just as bad…’
You’re a liar, Rex.
Griff,
You’re not the only one who does/has done ‘this’ for a living. So, may I say, with all due respect to your expertise, that trying to make the argument that racism within Russia is worse than the antisemitism there because it has rated higher in the survey, is at the very least slightly disingenuous, as it tends to dismiss the 55% who agreed that antisemitism was very or rather serious, too lightly for my taste.
Also I note in your remarks that, while you point out the rise of antisemitism in Poland, Hungary etc, which gives rise to the increased numbers for Europe, you don’t provide historical context to the numbers from Russia, to the extent that the antisemitism problem in Russia is an older one that has its roots in encouragement by Putin since he came to power over 20 years ago. You could use the colloquial expression that it is ‘baked in’, so not seeing the alarming rise that the other countries are experiencing there as elsewhere.
Plus, if you are Jewish in Russia you have probably learned how to keep your head down again if you chose to remain there after the break-up of the USSR, as you lived in hope of a brighter future after Gorbachev. Which goes to another point I made that you haven’t addressed. That is, the survey was conducted face-to-face in Russia, but anonymously over the internet in Europe, and so I made the point that, with the oppressive conditions that the Russian people have to live under where speaking out against Putin, and the Russians he supports and encourages, is frowned upon and actively discouraged, then I think it’s only fair to question that some of the interviewees may have moderated their answers in the spirit of self-preservation.
Rewi @ Saturday, February 26, 2022 at 11:04 am
Indeed. We have an increasing problem in Australia as well as in Europe. Anti-semitism has often played the proverbial canary in the coalmine of society.
Saw a headline on the SMH page “he has lied, he has deceived, he has fabricated “
Then I found it was Marise Payne talking about Putin, not Morrison.
Regrettably, he’s probably right:
[‘Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky said goodbye to European leaders Thursday during a video chat — telling them that “this might be the last time you see me alive”.]
https://www.news.com.au/world/europe/ukraines-volodymyr-zelensky-warns-eu-leaders-this-might-be-the-last-time-you-see-me-alive/news-story/854a0e5e117c32fa3cbf38043bd4067f
A lesser man (Putin) would have fled.
Mavis,
I’m not au fait with the international law but I’m wondering whether, if nuckin’ futs Putin does decide to use a thermobaric bomb and it ends up killing thousands of say, Greek citizens resident in the enclaves they have established in Ukraine, whether that would count as sufficient to invoke a NATO treaty response?
Russian State TV running supportive quotes of Putin, by:
Donald Trump
Mike Pompeo
Tucker Carlson
Sprocket
I always said that it would be proven that Trump was a traitor to his own country.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/feb/26/greens-target-queensland-as-new-battleground-in-balance-of-power-bid
The Under-Reactionaries are campaigning against Labor, as usual. I think it’s going to be more difficult for them to get much of a hearing this time. COVID, Ukraine, the Lite, cost of living/household budgets, Morrison’s incompetence and his incessant lies….these are not richly fertile ground for the Cadets.
There are some encouraging things to note from the Guardian article. First, it reminds readers that Bandt has pedalled away from claims that a “coalition” with Labor is a political aim. This new-found political realism is excellent for Labor. Realism is one of Bandt’s several nightmare opponents and is a campaign strength for Albo.
The article refers to the weakening support for the Surrogate Reactionaries/Q-Left recently suggested in Newspoll. This effect could also be seen in the NSW by-elections. The article refers to the decline in their vote in WA, where the party barely exists these days, and where its messages mostly fail to register with voters. In WA, rather than supporting 3rd voices, voters have queued up to vote Labor, with overwhelming results. It’s very unlikely that these voters – motivated by COVID anxieties – will shift in significant numbers to the Home of Disaffection. Rather, voters will renew their subscriptions to safety and realism.
This is all very encouraging. It could go a lot further. If Labor were to assign their Senate prefs to alt-progressive voices, the Professionally Disaffected might lose their Senate contests. This would be a very welcome development. At the same time, if Labor’s PV climbs enough, it may be that Disaffected part-quotas help elect Labor Senators. That would be remarkable. I hope it happens.
sprocket_,
74 million American voters is a large number for those people to pander to. However, 83 million is a bigger number. Even with pathetic attempts by the Republicans to negate as much of the 83 million as they possibly can.
This is from the person behind the ‘Rex Douglas’ mask.
It’s been a strange last 24hrs for me.
I generally disassociate the characters of PB from their true selves away from the keyboard. This results in an intended emotional disconnection, which I prefer. I assume most of the characters here are different from the actual person behind them.
However, I’ve found myself emotionally affected by ‘lizzies’ absence. Never before have I felt this way. I will miss ‘lizzie’.
“Same-same” is crap. With regard to climate policy, Labor wants to take action and will do so if elected, even if that action will not enough to satisfy many. On the other hand, the Coalition has no intention of taking effective action but now feels it needs to pay lip service and take a few token actions, provided that they won’t harm fossil fuel profits.
Some primary detail from the SA State Newspoll…
Suspect the first age column should be 18-29
Bludging,
If Labor were to assign their Senate prefs to alt-progressive voices, the Professionally Disaffected might lose their Senate contests.
I mentioned yesterday that, in NSW at least and I have no idea about their presence in WA politics, but The Animal Justice Party is taking quite a few votes away from The Greens that aren’t going to Labor. They are a very professional and well-organised outfit and if they do a deal with Labor for preferences, which isn’t out of the question considering Labor’s animal, marine and land, friendly policies from when they were last in power, then it could prove to be a very interesting time as the Senate votes are counted.
Rex Douglas
Understand how you feel. Sigh…..
Rossmcgsays:
Saturday, February 26, 2022 at 11:19 am
But her Government has given her a wonderful template to make such a judgment.
Late Riser
Thank you for your thoughtful, which I completely agree with.
I am in France at the moment, and so catching-up very late due to the time difference.
victoria
He is what we used to call a ‘traitor’ but somehow he escapes. He’s amazingly cunning. As it’s always money with Trump just how much money does he owe the Russians?
My condolences to everyone affected by Lizzie’s loss.
C@tmomma:
Saturday, February 26, 2022 at 11:22 am
[‘Mavis,
I’m not au fait with the international law but I’m wondering whether, if nuckin’ futs Putin does decide to use a thermobaric bomb and it ends up killing thousands of say, Greek citizens resident in the enclaves they have established in Ukraine, whether that would count as sufficient to invoke a NATO treaty response?’]
Article 5 of the NATO agreement reads thus:
‘An attack on one member of the alliance is an attack on all and compels allies to come to each others’ aid.’ Given Ukraine is not a NATO member, the example you cite would be insufficient to invoke Art. 5.
Thanks sprocket for SA polling.
The 40-49 breakdown paints a strange picture.
Many thanks BK
Griff says:
Saturday, February 26, 2022 at 11:11 am
Socrates @ Saturday, February 26, 2022 at 10:22 am
I find it unsettling that India’s interest in abstaining and not enforcing sanctions against Russia due to its reliance on Russian military tech to protect itself against China, has resulting in India placing itself in the same side as China (and Pakistan) during this conflict. Strange bedfellows.
Xi expects to benefit from Russian military aggression. So far, so good for Xi.
India was a founding member of the Non-Aligned Movement. This evolved into an affiliation with Russia while Pakistan got sweet with the US. Indo-Pakistani enmity echoed Soviet-US friction. India, of course, will want no part of a war in Europe.
This is what happens when virtually every word he utters is aimed at Australia’s voters in an attempt to wedge Labor prior to the election.
Those same words are heard in other countries and can have profound consequences for Australia. However, like Trump, he is not a true patriot but only ever thinks of number one.
Two 30-39 groups and sans <29 in the SA poll. Yeah, 40-49 is weird in the context of surrounding age groups.
[‘Eleven members of the UN Security Council back a draft resolution to denounce Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. However, as expected, Russia vetoes the move, while China, the United Arab Emirates and India abstain from the vote.’] – Aunty.
This amply demonstrates that the UN is as useless as a glass hammer, not much better than the League of Nations.
[‘A Federal MP, who is Jewish, has been has been targeted by a grotesque anti-Semitic graffiti attack in his Melbourne electorate.’]
https://www.news.com.au/national/victoria/politics/federal-mp-josh-burns-targeted-in-horror-swastika-attack-in-melbourne-electorate/news-story/2264f2a6a8b953e7484e58d0b0cec250
sprocket_ says:
Saturday, February 26, 2022 at 11:29 am
Thanks for the table. It shows that about 1/7 voters in the age group 18-29 intend to vote Liberal. Nothing better describes how reactionary the Liberals have become than this. They offer absolutely nothing to young people. They are the instrument of privilege, of the archaic, of idiotic Pentecostalism and of laissez-faire indifference.
C@tmomma Saturday, February 26, 2022 at 11:16 am
As I said, you are entitled to your opinion. And your “taste” as you say.
You do raise a valid point on the different mode of administration of the survey. I concede, as do the researchers, that it has the potential for bias. They conclude that it still provides a relative comparison. As do I based on the consistency of responses. You do not, which your opinion which you are entitled to.
You claim that there is a difference in the history of anti-semitism in that “the antisemitism problem in Russia is an older one that has its roots in encouragement by Putin since he came to power over 20 years ago.” Again an opinion that you are entitled to. Some say otherwise. Here is the situation back in the 90’s: https://www.refworld.org/docid/3ae6a60a2.html The evidence is that there has been a shift from state-sponsored antisemitism to social antisemitism.
So, I have provided evidence to say that antisemitism isn’t the current issue in Russia that you are making out in the form of a survey conducted by the Yuri Levada Analytical Center at the behest of the Russian Jewish Congress and supported by the World Jewish Congress and Euro-Asian Jewish Congress. I also said it is complex and nuanced. I said that there are other groups that have more discriminated against. Perhaps you might want to read this article: This is supported by Israeli press: https://www.timesofisrael.com/why-russian-jews-are-divided-over-the-anti-putin-movement/
You have not provided evidence for your opinions apart from saying you have watched a documentary.
I shall conclude, that I have explained my position. I maintain that calling the Russian Government antisemitic by linking a wikipedia article on topic of Russian National Unity (RNU) is a false conflation. An article that states “The organization is currently unregistered federally in Russia.” and “They are now only a shadow of what they once were and have been inactive and somewhat dormant for many years now.” for what that is worth. While I called out a.v. for the language used against you, I also called you out. You still think you are right. It seems that a lesson that I struggle to learn is that it is best not to argue with someone that is never wrong 😉
The UN is working exactly as it was intended to by the five great powers who comprise the Security Council, providing each of them with a free pass to ignore the international law that the UNO is supposed to uphold.
Steve777 says:
Saturday, February 26, 2022 at 11:27 am
“Same-same” is crap. With regard to climate policy, Labor wants to take action and will do so if elected, even if that action will not enough to satisfy many. On the other hand, the Coalition has no intention of taking effective action but now feels it needs to pay lip service ….
Rexology is posted in the service of the Federal Under-Reactionaries. Free-lance Disaffection. Voluntary Surrogacy.
Bludging at 11.55am
Is not ‘idiotic Pentecostalism’ a tautology?
The South Australian Newspoll has a sample size of 1,015. That means each age bracket would have only about 200 members, probably less for the middle brackets. The margin of error would be about 7-8%. This might explain the odd results for 40-49 versus adjacent age bands.
Bludging @ #134 Saturday, February 26th, 2022 – 10:55 am
Yes.
If only Labor capitalized on this by offering young people some things they want, like an end to domestic coal/gas extraction and usage and meaningful action on climate change. Then you might not see such a large chunk of that cohort voting Greens instead.
The age breakdowns posted by Sprocket are from an Australia Institute poll, not Newspoll.
BH
I daresay that it is well known what Trump has done to date.
Since Biden became president, he has focussed on what was going to happen next as a result of the seeds planted by traitors within their midst.
I find it quite strange that someone positing here would assume that most other posters are very different here to what they are in real life.
I assume the opposite as a default until evidence arises to the contrary.
Are they saying that everyone comes here to troll the place? Perhaps they think that becasue that is their motivation for being here and they assume that everyone is like them.
Refer post by Rex Douglas above.
sprocket_ @ Saturday, February 26, 2022 at 11:29 am
Thanks for the SA breakdown. Is it typical for Labor to have the highest primary in the 60+ demographic? Just speculating whether the pandemic has affected the voting pattern in this demographic to a greater extent.
Snappy Tom says:
Saturday, February 26, 2022 at 12:00 pm
Bludging at 11.55am
Is not ‘idiotic Pentecostalism’ a tautology?
Indeed it is. But emphasis is a lovely thing.
AJM:
I mean, this is the same blog where it’s common for people to be accused of being paid to post here by political parties and foreign nations, typically because they commited the crime of having opinions the people making the accusations don’t agree with.
Rex is (sort of) correct in that our online personas are performances to a certain extent. Sure, there are some (both on Poll Bludger and elsewhere) who are clearly pure Id, just blurting out every thought that comes into their head without any filter nor concern as to whether they are actually adding anything of value to the conversation. Most of us, however, are – on some level – masquerading as the person we really want to be, at least subconsciously. But the same can be said for our in-person interactions too. Human nature is a funny thing like that.
ajm says:
Saturday, February 26, 2022 at 12:04 pm
I find it quite strange that someone positing here would assume that most other posters are very different here to what they are in real life.
I assume the opposite as a default until evidence arises to the contrary.
Are they saying that everyone comes here to troll the place? Perhaps they think that becasue that is their motivation for being here and they assume that everyone is like them.
Refer post by Rex Douglas above.
________________________________
While I appreciated Rex’s comments about Lizzie/Zoe, I found that observation a very strange comment. I certainly don’t assume any other persona than who I am and there are many other posters here who clearly are themselves.
There are obvious trolls, of course. But Rex’s comment does help to explain why I find his general comments, far more than most, totally irritating.
Just one comment on anti-semitism.
Historically, anti-semitism was endemic throughout Poland and the broad west of the former Russian Empire and then the Soviet Union. It was integrally part of the religious upbringing that Jews were the killers of Christ and, worse, would not see the light and convert to Christianity.
No doubt, there is still in many places in Belarus, Ukraine, Latvia, Lithuania, and western Russia latent social anti-semitism.
However, the excuse used by Putin – that Ukraine was in the hands of anti-semitic neo-Nazis is just an excuse. I have no doubt that there are in both countries ultra-nationalist groupings that adopt anti-semitism as part of their shtick. But we have that here in Australia and it exists also in the USA.
The point is that anti-semitism has absolutely nothing to do with Putin’s criminal act in invading a sovereign nation. Both a.v. and C@t are barking up the wrong tree in even discussing the issue. This is nothing more than a brutal, violent grab for territory to satisfy a longing for empire on the part of Putin. It’s living out a fantasy of control. It’s tragic.
I really enjoyed this:
https://youtu.be/0G6obeUKWmw
what happened to the young guy who used to sprout MMT here, I assume he was bullied away?
Q: Historically, anti-semitism was endemic throughout Poland …
Interesting when I was last in Poland I learnt why Poland had so many Jews….. during the long era of the Poland/Lithuanian Empire 1569-1785: “The Polish–Lithuanian Commonwealth was marked by high levels of ethnic diversity and by relative religious tolerance, guaranteed by the Warsaw Confederation Act 1573” (wiki)
Jews, who had been persecuted in Western Europe for centuries flooded in- along with capital, professions etc that led to great prosperity.
Of course this all led sadly to another Western leader to come in and attempt extermination.