UPDATE: InDaily reports on the first published statewide opinion poll result in a year, conducted by Dynata for the Australia Institute. It shows Labor with a 51-49 lead, but as you can see from the primary votes, that’s heavily dependent on speculative preference flows: Liberal and Labor have very modest primary votes of 35% and 37% respectively, hardly better than they collectively managed in 2018 with SA-Best accounting for 14.2% (Liberal polled 38.0% and Labor 32.8%). The Greens are on 7% and SA-Best 4%, though I’m not sure if they will actually be fielding any candidates. This leaves fully 17% going to “others”. The poll was conducted online from February 1 to 14 from a sample of 602.
It has also been noted in comments that The Advertiser reported a fortnight ago on two uComms polls conducted for the SA Forestry Products Association for Stuart and Mount Gambier. The former suggested independent Geoff Brock will not be competitive in his bid to move from Frome, with Liberal member Dan van Holst Pellekaan recording 45.1% of the primary vote to Labor’s 17.4% and Brock’s 11.3%, with the Greens on 6.6%, others on 12.7% and 7.0% undecided, and Liberal leading Labor 60-40 on two-party. In Mount Gambier, independent Troy Bell looks safe on 35.7% to Labor’s 22.5% and the Liberals’ 20.2%, with the Greens on 4.2%, others on 8.0% and 9.4% undecided and Bell leading Labor 58-42 on two-party preferred. The polls were conducted from January 31 to February 3, presumably by automated phone polling, with modest sample sizes of 402 and 406 respectively.
The South Australian election campaign officially began on Saturday when Steven Marshall visited the Governor to advise the issue of the writs for an election on March 19, as ordained by the state’s fixed term legislation. Which makes now, give or take a day or two, the ideal time to launch my state election guide, featuring all the attractions familiar from my past work in this field: individual guides to each of the 47 lower house electorates, including written summaries, interactive maps displaying booth results from the previous election, and chart and table displays of past election results; and an overview page that sets the general scene. What it doesn’t have yet is a page for the Legislative Council, but I’ll attend to that over the coming week or so.
The following excerpt from the overview page provides a useful summary of where things stand:
The Liberals lost three seats and their parliamentary majority over the course of 2020 and 2021, with two members leaving the party after becoming embroiled in scandals and a third complaining that the government had failed to address concerns in his electorate, while also likely being aggrieved at having been overlooked for promotion. Conversely, Labor’s parliamentary line-up has remained intact since it retained two seats at by-elections held in February 2019 after the retirements of Jay Weatherill and his deputy, John Rau. The redistribution has weakened the Liberals in two key seats, but has not had the effect of moving any seat to the opposite party’s column, in contrast to the one before the 2018 election. Consequently, the current numbers in parliament are Liberal 22, Labor 19 and independents six.
Labor thus needs five extra seats to gain a majority, and likely has one in the bag after the redistribution prompted Frances Bedford to abandon her naturally safe Labor seat of Florey for its finely poised Liberal-held neighbour, Newland. The shortest path to victory for Labor would involve a uniform swing of 2.0%, which would net the metropolitan seats of Newland, Adelaide, King and Elder. Beyond that lies a big gap in the electoral pendulum out to the Liberals’ next most marginal seat of Colton, where the required swing is 6.2%.
Each of the four ex-Liberal members will be seeking re-election as independents, meaning the Liberals have to either unseat at least two of them or win as many from Labor to recover their majority. They also have an opportunity to gain a seat from the other independent, Geoff Brock, who like Frances Bedford has been confronted by a troublesome redistribution. Brock will now run against deputy Liberal leader Dan van Holst Pellekaan in Stuart, which has gained his home base of Port Pirie from his existing seat of Frome.
One important question the guide leaves unaddressed is who’s going to win. For what it’s worth, Sportsbet is offering $1.75 on the Liberals and $2 on Labor, which if nothing else makes clear that nobody thinks a Western Australian or even a Tasmanian scale landslide is on the cards. Beyond that we’re flying blind owing to the evaporation of state-level polling in recent times, particularly outside the two biggest states. The last published poll that I’m aware of was fully a year ago, by YouGov for The Advertiser, showing a very modest Liberal lead of 51-49. The closest thing to a more recent result was an Essential Research poll covering 443 respondents in October which credited Steven Marshall with a seemingly very healthy 61% approval rating, with only 27% disapproving.
Some acknowledgements are clearly due for the election guide, which leans heavily on a few particular sources. Naturally this includes the traditional news media outlets, notably The Advertiser and the ABC. However, even more valuable was the local online news publication InDaily, which I cannot praise enough: thanks to its efforts, the country’s fifth most populous state is the best served for coverage of state politics. Or to put the case more persuasively than I ever could myself: the Donald Trump-wannabe Liberal Senator Alex Antic reckons the site to be “fake news”. In addition to that, all my election guides draw heavily on the Political Chronicles feature in the Australian Journal of Politics and History, wherein local academics have provided learned summaries of contemporary events twice yearly for every Australian governmental jurisdiction since I-shudder-to-think-when. These have been dutifully compiled over the past term by Andrew Parkin, Rob Manwaring and Haydon Manning.
Finally, some observations worth noting about the rather lackadaisical attitude of the Marshall government towards updating its electoral legislation, and the impact they will have on voting and vote counting. It has been noted previously that the government has failed to legislate to deal with the problem that voters put into COVID-19 isolation after the deadline for postal vote application closes will not be able to vote. The Electoral Commission has cobbled together a fix whereby those thus affected will be able to collect ballot papers from COVID-19 test sites, which will be about the only places where they can legally go.
However, another pandemic-related issue remains unresolved: the fact that South Australia uniquely continues to treat pre-polls as declaration votes that must be lodged in signed envelopes, which precludes them being counted on election night. This means that only votes cast on the day will be counted on election night, which every indication suggests will be unprecedentedly few in number. As a result, it will only be possible to call the winner on the night if there is a particularly clear and decisive result. Even then, some may well point to late-count surprises after last weekend’s New South Wales by-elections as evidence that literally nothing can be taken for granted for as long as an actual majority of votes cast remain in their boxes.
Hi William, as a South Aussie I have been keeping my own tracker of the SportsBet odds you mentioned, which has not changed since August last year.
The odds back in July had the Libs at $1.55 and ALP $2.45
They moved to the current value in August after the short lockdown we had mid year.
The other major change in SA was the handling of Covid-19, with the essential poll in Jan 22 showing the SA gov response to Covid had hits it’s worse level since the pandemic began, which was 43% – only worse was NSW.
Personally I just want to see a statewide poll, but there seems to be a lack of news outlets wanting to fund one. Not even Libs or lab are dropping there own internal.
The other part being over looked at the moment in SA is what happens to the MR. X vote from the last election. Which way do those disgruntled voters vote? Do they split and vote 50/50 lab/libs or sway back to one party more than the other. The swing in the state required might be 2% but both parties might have swings towards them cause of the X vote from last time.
Thanks William. It would be very surprising to me if the Liberal vote had not dipped since the covid outbreak in December. This cost SA businesses a lot of money. But with no polls it is hard to say how much.
Liberal election posters up now are striking for how low key the Liberal logo is, combined with use of a sky blue and navy blue font on a white background, rather than their normal white font on navy blue background.
Thanks for this William.
And a +1 from me wrt Indaily
Labor had early pre selections for the key marginal seats you mention, and has been campaigning in each for more than a year. Newland will be a very interesting contest, but my feel is that it will be won by Frances Bedford, and Labor regaining Florey.
If Labor can pick up the other 3 marginals, a minority Labor government could be on the cards. It would be very hard to see Bedford backing a Marshall government. This year’s election could follow the recent pattern of very finely balanced SA elections. In that sense, 2018 was a bit of an outlier, although hardly a landslide.
The most telling thing I’ve seen on the ground is a poster, but not an election poster as such. It’s pretty typical one with a neutral photo of Stephen Marshall and some angry captions, criticising his government for reopening the state right when Omicron hit, with harsh capacity restrictions on hospo venues, when said venues were doing okay with stronger border controls and no capacity limits. There have been heaps of similar ones around the place in cafes and pubs and whatnot for the past few weeks. But this one’s on the verandah of a pub on Hindley Street owned by a bloke from a little farming town outside Murray Bridge. In the total absence of polling data, that alone is enough for me to give the election to Labor. If the SA Liberals have lost _rural_ small business owners, they’ve got no-one left.
I can only wonder why is that nobody has been really interested in polling for the state election voting intentions for political parties in SA since 15–29 July 2021….
Will we get any polling result before election day?
Is somebody in the polling industry “worried”?…. If so, about what?
The liberals likely to lose Stuart to Brock…this leaves a path for a Alp minority government.. on the assumption that most independents with exception of Bedford if re elected would be pro liberal
Thanks again for your guide as always Will!
I almost forgot about the SA Election with so much Fed news at the moment. I see One Nation is running a few candidates in SA and would be interesting to see how their vote goes as a per-cursor to Feds.
Curiously the Nationals are contesting quite a few seats, considering they didn’t contest the LA or LC in 2018, and in 2014 only contested 2 seats (Goyder [essentially now Narungga] and Hammond) and the LC. So far they’re running 6 candidates… with SA-Best out of the way as a force, I guess they see this as their best chance in a while.
The one interesting thing I’d see from this election if any independents who run for the State Election, then run for Federal after raising their profile. (A bit like the Greens selecting same candidate for NSW Willoughby by-election and Fed-North Sydney (NSW)).
There actually were some electorate-level opinion polls in early Feb from uComms for SA Forestry Products Association (paywalled):
https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/opinion-poll-kingmaker-independent-geoff-brock-faces-defeat-by-deputy-premier-dan-van-holst-pellekaan-in-stuart-electorate/news-story/238866855b663ef86e758ce5347e8848
The summary of these polls was (phone poll, each approx 400 voters):
Mt Gambier Bell (Ind) leading ALP 58-42 on 2PP basis
(primaries Ind(Bell) 35.7%, ALP 22.5%, LIB 20.2%)
Stuart LIB leading ALP 60-40 on 2PP basis
(primaries LIB 45.1%, ALP 17.4%, Brock (IND) 11.3%)
The preferred premier was Marshall 54-46 in Mt Gambier and Malinauskus 52-48 in Stuart (kinda strange).
Not sure these will be the relevant 2PP counts after election day, but these polls are what they are …
The only polls I’ve seen show Dan van Horst Pellekaan winning Stuart comfortably and Independent (ex Lib) Troy Bell safe in Mount Gambier. Brock seems confident though.
Christopher Pyne is more sensible than usual in his Tiser column today. Sees the election as a toss-up. As you’d expect, he reckons Brock and Frances Bedford are goners. On this he may be right.
Incidentally, is Louise Miller-Frost really the Labor candidate for Morphett?
She is after all running for Labor in Boothby. Morphett’s in Boothby, so there is a bit of logic in it – provided she does win Morphett!
Oh dear. Provided she doesn’t win Morphett!
Research conducted by online market research company Dynata on behalf of progressive think-tank The Australia Institute puts Labor two points ahead of the Liberals as the state election campaign kicks off, InDaily can reveal – with the ALP on 51 per cent of the projected two-party statewide vote, to the Government’s 49 per cent.
https://indaily.com.au/news/2022/02/21/revealed-marshall-falls-behind-in-early-polling/
The primary votes in that Australia Institute poll would have the libs very concerned considering the number of votes they have locked up in country seats.
Brilliant guide as always William., thanks. A couple of minor glitches on the overview page. Th 2pp bar chart has the ALP and Libs reversed. and the link back to Pollbludger leads to (ahem!) Crikey.
”
The Toorak Toffsays:
Monday, February 21, 2022 at 1:01 pm
Incidentally, is Louise Miller-Frost really the Labor candidate for Morphett?
She is after all running for Labor in Boothby. Morphett’s in Boothby, so there is a bit of logic in it – provided she does win Morphett!
”
Very Interesting indeed. I thought only Greens/ Independents run candidates like ALP did for this electorate because they have no hope of winning atleast one of the seats or both seats or to increase their profile.
Oh dear indeed!
A 3% switch between the parties and a large move to independants from the last one.
Small numbers when splitting the poll by age group, but in the 2 older age groups there is a matching high dissatisfaction with opening the border and big move away from Libs.
I have Labor ahead in 23 seats and Libs on 21 with three ex libs winning their seats. Bedford won’t win Newlands as the two majors will poll too high. Brock’s out in Stuart which should give the Libs +1 in Frome. Labor will pick up Florey giving them+1. I see Labor gaining Newlands, King and Adelaide, I think Libs will hold Elder as that seat is gentrifying. That leaves a hung Parliament with the Ex libs to decide the balance of power and don’t be surprised if Dan Cregan stays speaker in a minority Malinauskas government
A quick check of the SA Labor website indicates they don’t have a candidate yet for Morphett. It’s a little surprising, although with a 10% margin, it’s not going to be a key target. Still, Rick Sarre is already lined up for another tilt at Vicki Chapman in Bragg, which is the bluest of the blue!
The other tricky thing is, will the reconstituted Family First run lower house candidates? It’s now run by former Labor Treasurer and Health Minister Jack Snelling and previous Newland Labor MP Tom Kenyon.
Where might their preferences go?
Oh, an actual poll! About time.
William i thought the redistribution was supposed to make more marginals. seems there are 4 lib marginals and then it jumps to 6+%. is this just the way the numbers fell or is there a structural issue at work here?
How much of the “others” vote in that poll might be for Clive’s mob?
Is there anything known of whether he is going to put up candidates for the SA poll?
I don’t think creating marginal seats as such was ever a KPI of the boundaries commissioners. In fact, the electoral fairness requirement is no longer on the books.
Palmer doesn’t often contest state elections — I think the only times were Queensland in 2015 and Tasmania in 2014.
Toorak Toff: I am reliably informed that Family First will run in 10 greater Metro seats but their true goal is an upper house seat.
11% for Brock in Stuart sounds WAY too low. Half the seat is Port Pirie, and Brock won that area with about 70% on primaries. 11% overall would be something like 0% everywhere else and 20% in Port Pirie… so a 50% swing on primaries in his own hometown? I’m not seeing it.
Newland… interesting. Probably Libs first on primary votes but well under 40%, and whoever comes second out of Labor and Bedford wins. There could even be a Prahran-type situation where Bedford comes a narrow third, gets over Labor on Green prefs and then beats the Libs on Labor prefs. A decent chunk of the SA Best vote should go to Bedford (16% in Newland; they didn’t run against her in Florey).
Of the ex-Lib independents: Dan Cregan in Kavel probably has the best chance. (In any other state I wouldn’t think so, but the SA Libs have a horrible record of losing seats like this.) Family First almost won the seat a while back, and federally it’s in Mayo, so they don’t always vote Liberal around there. If he scoops most of the 20% SA Best vote he should at least come second. I doubt the other two have a chance, due to the circumstances of their leaving the party – particularly not Duluk.
Labor in Waite could be worth a flutter – 7.6% isn’t that huge a margin. They’ve got the same (female) candidate as 2018, and the new Liberal candidate is a man – it’s not a great look, considering why Duluk got kicked out of the Libs. Compare with Andrew Broad in Mallee last federal election, where the Nats made a point of replacing him with a woman.
“UPDATE: InDaily reports on the first published statewide opinion poll result in a year, conducted by Dynata for the Australia Institute. It shows Labor with a 51-49 lead, but as you can see from the primary votes, that’s heavily dependent on speculative preference flows”…
Thanks William…. Yes, just like with the previous, much older polls giving the Libs ahead by 51-49, we can only say that this is extremely close…. I guess that the campaign will likely make a difference to swing undecideds… Time for a little donation, methink….
I may be wrong, but I thought Family First stated they won’t be doing any preference deals, but I guess time will tell. It will be interesting to see how they perform.
Although I no longer live in South Australia, most of my family and friends do. My completely unscientific sense is that the Liberals are in serious trouble. Naturally, to some extent the anger over the pre Christmas opening of the border will have settled, but I am certainly still hearing it, including from family members who have voted Liberal their entire lives. I’m not expecting a WA style landslide by a long shot, but I do think Labor will form majority government.
“I don’t think creating marginal seats as such was ever a KPI of the boundaries commissioners. In fact, the electoral fairness requirement is no longer on the books.”
Thanks William. shows how up to date i am on my south australian politics
Bird .. my thoughts too re Stuart.. why would Brock lose votes in Port Pirie. 70% of 50 is 35.. so only.needs 15.out of 50 ie 30% in the rest of the electorate … Port Augusta is also an industrial city. I think Brock must be favoured .Longer turn.Labor is in the contest here
Heres a somewhat hacked-up 2cp for Stuart:
In Frome 2018, 15.7% voted for someone other than Brock or the Lib candidate (Labor, Green, Dignity), and 12.2% of those preferences ended up with Brock – that’s 77.8%.
The redrawn Stuart, going off Antony Green’s figures: 44.4% Lib, 34.6 Brock, 21% other. Throw those prefs the same way, and you get a 2cp of 50.9% Brock / 49.1% Lib. And remember, that’s assuming a non-realistic 0% vote for Brock everywhere he wasn’t the local MP in 2018.
If he takes even 10% off the Libs in Port Augusta, that improves his 2cp by about 5% across the seat. 20% in PA would lead to a 61% Brock 2cp, assuming his vote in PP stays put. (Yeah, I’m ignoring that seat poll.) Even if preference flows aren’t as strong to him in PA, it’s still a good position to be in.
I am confident Labor will win. Marshall government is following the same trajectory as Napthine government. Do nothing government, broken promises, scandals and rogue MPs, federal drag with toxic PM.
COVID-19 testing stations to serve as ballot collection sites ahead of SA election
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-02-15/sa-election-ballot-collection-at-covid-sites/100830732
Hey now. Those seat polls…
Stuart: 45.1+17.4+11.3+9.4 = 83.2
Mt Gambier: 35.7+22.5+20.2+7 = 85.4
So what happened to the other 16.8% / 14.6%, then?
I’ve revised the post to fill those gaps. I also had the two seats’ undecided results the wrong way round.
@alpo
Polls get done when someone pays for them.
.
The SA Liberals are in big trouble. I think Gorks’ analogy with the Napthine government is an excellent one. I seem to recall that Napthine picked a pretty big fight with the ambos union in 2014, just like the Marshall govt has. This has been very damaging for the SA Libs. They have lost a conga line of ministers and Marshall’s political soulmate Vickie Chapman, the former Deputy Premier. They are also battling a number of independent insurgencies, some of which they are certain to lose.
If the above wasn’t enough, they are battling a highly effective and articulate opposition leader who looks and sounds like a winner. Malinauskus may not set the comrades hearts beating politically, but he is the sort of labor leader who has broad electoral appeal, and will do a lot better in some of the more affluent mid-outer suburban areas than Weatherill at the last election. Earlier in the pandemic Marshall’s letting the SA Health/SA Police combo run the show looked like a smart move, but as time wore on, it started to look like he lacked leadership and had his hand off the rudder. The opposition’s quite cooperative approach and keeping their powder dry for most of the pandemic meant that they could go hard on the govt when borders opened and things started going wrong – rather than the stupid aproach of the VIC Libs who just looked like a bunch of whingers.
One thing I can say with high confidence – there is little to no chance of a majority Liberal government after the election. I do think there is some chance they could scrape together enough independents to form a govt, but even this, I believe, is somewhat unlikely.
The most likely scenario is a majority labor government with a majority of between 1 and 4.
Some seat assessments:
Labor will gain at least Florey, Newland, King, Adelaide. Probably Elder.
Cregan will easily retain Kavel (elected on green and labor prefs)
Bell will easily retain Mt Gambier
Ellis will retain Narungga
van Holst Pelekaan will retain Stuart, defeating Geoff Brock (but unlike the forestry poll, will be very close)
Leon Bignell in Mawson will get a swing to him for the fifth election in a row. If there are any aspiring MPs reading, follow Bignell on social media and see how to work your butt off.
Outside chances:
I rate Labor as outside chances in Hartley and Black. Not so much Colton or others on similar margins. Check out the equivalent (Kingston) booths in Black at a federal level and you’ll see there are plenty of labor votes to be gained …
Waite -don’t rule out the independent candidate Heather Holmes-Ross in this seat (current Mitcham Mayor and former Blackwood cafe owner and former uni buddy of mine). I rate her chances as higher than Sam Duluk. The primaries could go absolutely anywhere in this seat.
@Sykesie what’s your thoughts on the seat of Davenport?
Erin is the local major and has plenty of connections. Labor are throwing a lot at that seat.
The rest of what you have said, I think is true but deep down, due to covid I just don’t see enough votes following back to labor from people who last election voted for SABest.
To me, that’s the key, win those voters and you win the election, and due to SABest both parties will have swings towards them.
SA Best are standing 2 candidates for the Legislative Council (upper house). No news on the lower house, which may mean none.
They say Labor would win Davenport by 3 per cent on figures from the last federal election. Of course, the amazing Amanda Rishworth pumped the Labor vote sky high.
A bridge too far, Davenport, I would have thought, on about 8%, but Labor are giving it a red hot go. Erin Thompson is out there and some heavy hitters are giving her solid advice. The fact we are talking about it, in itself, is indicative. Overall, I think the “ScoMo” factor is a thing, and a bad thing for the Libs.
My thoughts so far, going in:
I have no idea what the outcome of this election will be. I don’t care much for anecdotes or “vibes” as they can be subjective and prone to biased sampling (or people just agreeing with you/telling you what you want to hear to placate you) but, gun to head, I would go with the safe prediction that it will be a close outcome, until further notice (not really daring but I don’t have much objective information to go off at this point, bar a few sparse and smelly polls.) On NYE on here, I listed some wild political predictions for 2022 and one of them was the Marshall Government being returned albeit in a minority, with support from conservative independent(s) and, apropos of nothing, Marshall stepping down as Premier later in the year (I had Dan van Holst Pellekaan as his successor but when I made the prediction I forgot Brock was challenging Stuart) but that was just a wild punt and not to be taken seriously.
I think one element that should be seriously considered is the effect a lot of the anti-vax/anti-mask people on the Right (who are none-too-pleased with Marshall) are going to have on the outcome and the potential of some traditional Liberal voters voting for a right wing third party like LDP, Family First or One Nation, and some of those preferences ending up going towards the Labor 2PP of seats, rather than the Liberal. Of course, many of the anti-vax/anti-mask people are from low education, low income demographics (such us those in the Northern suburbs) who might traditionally vote Labor and instead vote for one of those parties filtering some of those preferences towards the Liberals instead. I don’t know. While a little too high for me to fully believe, that 17% “others” in that poll is still a stark reminder that this might be a substantial element in this election.
Which brings me on to the Legislative Council. There are 11 seats up for election, elected proportionally (1/12 +1, or roughly 8.33% of the vote required for a quota.) As a conservative guess, I would say that the majors will each win 4 seats minimum, the Greens will win one (they have constantly done so since 2006 and, judging by the growth in Green statewide support, aligning more with the other states, post-Xenophon, they should do it easily this time.) As for the other two seats, one will most likely go to some party of Right alignment. Whether that’s a fifth Liberal or one of the third parties, I don’t know. The One Nation vote for the Senate in SA in 2019 was 4.87% – should they have a similar result and do well enough on preferences, they might be able to win that seat. On a different tangent, Family First might have a shot if they still have some brand recognition, good preference flows and, being run by defectors from the Labor Right, maybe some Labor voters putting them above the Greens.
As for the final seat, that’s the trickiest one to analyse. It’s possible that Family First and One Nation both get up on preferences from both sides of the aisle. It’s also possible the Liberals win five seats and ON/FF win the final seat. On the flipside though, there’s an outside chance Labor could win five seats and the Greens one seat (making the left of centre win 6 of 11.) The other possibility is SA Best winning that seat. Although, since Nick Xenophon has left the political scene, it seems the support of parties formerly affiliated with him have collapsed. Nevertheless, if they can manage to get a primary of 4-5%, with some good preferences, they might still do it but I will believe it when I see it.
I apologise for the above long and rambly post. I just spewed out my opening thoughts on this election. I promise further posts will be more succinct, specific and on-point.
Oh and briefly on the topic of Legislative Council seats, I am glad to see that Labor have decided to nominate a fifth place candidate on their ticket now:
https://indaily.com.au/news/2022/02/22/back-from-the-dead-labor-veteran-shelves-retirement/
It’s baffling that they were originally intending to only run four candidates. Even though it’s not very likely they will win a fifth seat, I always think it’s best to have at least one more than you think you need.
Good to see you back, Wat. Always appreciate your insights.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/02/21/south-australian-election-guide-4/#comment-3825992
I believe that if 1 of the candidates dies or candidate disqualifications occur, having fewer candidates than winnable places would cause a large part of a quota to be scattered in distribution (with significant elimination). The ALP and Liberals should run at least 6 candidates.
Alex Antic is an excellent Senator so doesn’t deserve the criticism he copped in the article.
That said, as I expect a Labor win of some sort, it’s amazing that Sportsbet offers $4 for a Labor minority govt, $4.10 for a Labor majority but only $3 for a Liberal minority govt and for what be the most unlikely occurrence, a Liberal majority govt at $3.10.
I am not a Sth Australian resident so what am I missing? I’ve backed Labor to win.
@predictor takes those sportbet odds with grain of salt.
They haven’t changed for months and not likely too without some hardcore polling data.
As I mentioned in the post, it hasn’t changed since August last year (2021), so either the market isn’t interested in SA elections or there isn’t a clear path that outlines a winner, so punters aren’t throwing money at it.
As @wat said “The vibe” on the street at the moment is one thing, the comments on FB and other socials back up that vibe but voting on Election Day means you need to commit to the change or stay the same.
Do the greens have a chance in any lower house seats in the election?
They say Family First will not be doing preference deals but will target socially liberal candidates.
@Asha
Thanks. I needed a small break from the repetitive and toxic circular arguments made here for the sake of mental wellbeing and resisting becoming toxic myself.
@Marko
No, not really. They’ve still got a lot of ground to gain for that to be a real possibility. Maybe, one day, if inner-Adelaide density continues to increase, it might be a possibility but, until then, it’s extremely unlikely.