No further national voting intention polls this week after the weekend Newspoll. Presumably this means the monthly Resolve Strategic will be along next week in the Age/Herald. Roy Morgan has for some time come along fortnightly and did not report last week, but the manner of its reporting is notoriously hard to predict. Together with the ongoing New South Wales by-elections count, which is covered in the post below this one, that just leaves the following:
• Roy Morgan did have an SMS poll of 1080 respondents conducted on Monday and Tuesday which found Josh Frydenberg favoured to lead the Coalition by 38.5%, ahead of Scott Morrison on 31% and Peter Dutton on 12.5%. The question specifically asked, “if you were a Liberal or National Party voter and helping to choose the Coalition Leader for the next Federal Election, who would you prefer”.
• The West Australian had a poll by Painted Dog Research on Wednesday which found Mark McGowan’s approval rating in Western Australia had fallen from 77% to 64% since December, having peaked at 91% in September 2020, with disapproval up from 14% to 25%. The poll was conducted Friday to Tuesday from a sample of 654.
• Recommended viewing and listening: Antony Green explains the dark art of election night results projection, while pollsters Peter Lewis and John Utting discuss the even darker art of opinion polling on 2SER’s Fourth Estate program.
Andrew_Earlwoodsays:
Friday, February 18, 2022 at 10:32 am
The simple truth is that between 1996 and 2018 the LNP were brazen appeases of the Chinese Communist Party. Only one Australian party provided consistent leadership – consistent with our values and the path chartered by pioneers like Gough Whitlam and Stephen Fitzgerald – the Australian Labor Party…
Excellent, well informed post Andrew. Well done.
Note trend in output. Down 25% in four years. Note that last year’s output could have been easily met without E04. Note that Taylor’s statements re replacement capacity required are overstated by at least a factor of two. I don’t think that he is capable of understanding the nature of electricity demand.
Does the Ukrainian situation have a whiff of 1938?
Despite statements to the contrary, the Ukrainian Government must be very worried. Ukraine is essentially alone like Czeckoslovakia in 1938 and 1939.
NATO has said they will not be coming to its defence should Russia invade. The only actions the US and Europe propose are “sanctions” against Russia.
It is hard to see what Putin would really gain from an invasion, apart from taking more of Ukraine to incorporate into Russia. Though dictators often like growing the State. Installing a Russian puppet in Kiev would hardly be a stable solution to anything longterm.
Following a successful Russian invasion will there be a meeting in Munich with Biden reprising the Chamberlain role?
“Note trend in output. Down 25% in four years. Note that last year’s output could have been easily met without E04. Note that Taylor’s statements re replacement capacity required are overstated by at least a factor of two. I don’t think that he is capable of understanding the nature of electricity demand.”
When the same companies that have cheered on the deaths of over 2000 Australians (is the number 2600+?) in Jan and Feb this year, because the gods of normality demand the lives be sacrificed for corp profits are leading on climate change action, you know politics is broken.
That Chinese company Huawei was obviously a dodgy crew. I mean, just look at the sort of people they had on their board. 🙂
Huawei’s Downer warns on Chinese paranoia
Downer urged the Government to “not pursue a policy of containment with China”.
https://www.crn.com.au/news/huaweis-downer-warns-on-chinese-paranoia-297370
Well, BoJo is available to play just about any role as long as it provides a distraction from the rest of his clown show.
Xi Jinping would be taking a keen interest in Ukrainian events, encouraged by the stated lack of US response if the invasion is mounted, re Taiwan
Socrates says:
Friday, February 18, 2022 at 9:25 am
Morning all. Thanks for the roundup. Desperation accurately describes Liberal tactics.
The Hillsong candidate calling Albo the Manchurian candidate is galling in the extreme. These sorts of obviously false attacks only damage the attacker.
The attacks are intended to damage Albo. They will continue, notwithstanding the attacks are based entirely on lies. They will most likely become more intense and more frequent. The Reactionaries do not yet have so much as a single policy. They have nothing but defamations to use on their opponents. These are free and they can invent as many as they like. The media will publish them.
The Reactionaries do not feel they’re obliged to stick to the truth. If lies are all they have, that’s what they’ll use.
They used the same methods on Labor and Shorten at the 2019 election. They lied their way to a win. Their circumstances are more desperate this time and the lies will become more and more exaggerated. This is electioneering 101 in the Reactionary handbook. We should expect 100 more days of shameless defamation.
Of course, the Greens will join the defamations too. They take as much pleasure from them as do their Reactionary siblings. The destruction of Labor leaders is all part of the remorseless game that passes for electioneering in this country.
Jackol
Well, BoJo is available to play just about any role as long as it provides a distraction from the rest of his clown show.
————
Undoubtedly he would be available but i think these days the UK Prime Minister would not have big enough boots to fill the role. He would be laughed off stage.
“ is the number 2600+?”
It will be tomorrow: https://covidlive.com.au/report/daily-deaths/aus
Nothing to see here. Move along.
Political donations: Nationals failed to disclose $1 million payment until after AEC audit. https://t.co/1X8DLoCuF8
“ They used the same methods on Labor and Shorten at the 2019 election. They lied their way to a win. Their circumstances are more desperate this time and the lies will become more and more exaggerated. This is electioneering 101 in the Reactionary handbook. We should expect 100 more days of shameless defamation.”
I currently think that Albo and Labor need to run their own – facts based – “Morrison and Dutton are ChiComm appeasers” counter attack scare campaign: endless clippings of what ScoMo has said since Xi became supreme leader and hit him again and again over both the Security Partnership (which he didn’t disown until recently) and the Port of Darwin sale. Again and again, until the LNP realises its on a loser with its ‘Redz under the Bedz’ campaign. Supplement the main attack with clippings from both the current and former head of ASIO rebuking the LNP scare campaign.
Rakali says:
Friday, February 18, 2022 at 10:45 am
Does the Ukrainian situation have a whiff of 1938?
Despite statements to the contrary, the Ukrainian Government must be very worried. Ukraine is essentially alone like Czeckoslovakia in 1938 and 1939.
NATO has said they will not be coming to its defence should Russia invade. The only actions the US and Europe propose are “sanctions” against Russia.
Ukraine does not want to join NATO and NATO does not have its eyes on Ukraine. Were there moves afoot to expand NATO then surely Russia would attack first. So the status quo, uncomfortable as it is, roughly matches the preferences of all involved.
Putin can make an exhibition of his might. That suits a tyrant any day. He can foment unrest on the Don. But if invaded he would have to occupy the territories and repress the Ukrainian people. This he would surely want to avoid. Swapping blood and treasure for land? Not his best game….you’d think.
He already has what he wants: a military vacuum in Ukraine.
Bill Browder
Russian government operatives just bombed a kindergarten in Eastern Ukraine. The purpose of this is to provoke a response from the Ukrainians to justify a full scale invasion. This was exactly the same playbook in Georgia in 2008. https://t.co/yKtXYXcFGy
Andrew_Earlwood:
[‘Make no mistake, this dog whistling campaign is aimed at the low information low interest bogan vote in the outer burbs and regions. A white bread sonata played very off key.’]
I think they’ve got that particular cohort already corralled. Perhaps they’re looking to supplement it? In any event, as seems apparent, Morrison and Dutton are using national security as a last-ditch attempt to retain power and they’re getting dirtier by the hour. Accordingly, Labor’s going to have to return fire with bigger artillery.
Andrew_Earlwood says:
Friday, February 18, 2022 at 11:03 am
“ They used the same methods on Labor and Shorten at the 2019 election. They lied their way to a win. Their circumstances are more desperate this time and the lies will become more and more exaggerated. This is electioneering 101 in the Reactionary handbook. We should expect 100 more days of shameless defamation.”
I currently think that Albo and Labor need to run their own – facts based – “Morrison and Dutton are ChiComm appeasers” counter attack scare campaign: endless clippings of what ScoMo has said since Xi became supreme leader and hit him again and again over both the Security Partnership (which he didn’t disown until recently) and the Port of Darwin sale. Again and again, until the LNP realises its on a loser with its ‘Redz under the Bedz’ campaign. Supplement the main attack with clippings from both the current and former head of ASIO rebuking the LNP scare campaign.
I completely agree.
Lies about taxes are one thing. Lies about loyalty to country are another altogether. The Liberals are scum. Their lies should be rebutted.
“I think they’ve got that particular cohort already corralled.”
If this is true then the polling is wrong and Morrison should be the favourite at this point.
Hi Mavis:
“ I think they’ve got that particular cohort already corralled. Perhaps they’re looking to supplement it?”
They desperately need to retain support of that cohort. Especially in places like Queensland, the NSW Central Coast, Penrith etc. They also need to supplement it as well.
“ Accordingly, Labor’s going to have to return fire with bigger artillery.”
Agreed. See my previous post. The facts actually speak for themselves. All Labor needs to do is to present them. Time and again. On endless loop.
Why is it so ?
Now they know……….
(pay walled, use Google ‘trick’ )
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/17/science/lizard-tails-break.html?action=click&module=Well&pgtype=Homepage§ion=Science
The polls have Labor on about 39-40 and the LNP on about 34-35. If the scum can wind that in to 37/37 or 38/38.…if they can break even on the PV…then they might just hang on in the election. It’s tough for Labor to win enough seats and they have some vulnerabilities too. The LNP will fight hand-to-hand in the seats that matter most and in the demographics that are persuadable.
The LNP will have a plan. We’re now seeing them put it into effect. That plan consists of the demolition of Albo. I hope the campaign has a counter-plan and they begin to use it.
I reckon the Fibs/ Nats’ rotten regime belong in a court room, if not over corruption/ integrity, then duty of care failures or dereliction of duty, never mind the Cuban sun musings …
Is there a Cuban – Australian extradiction treaty?
May be the soon to be former ‘PM’ can go help Tourism Cuba?
WeWantPaul says:
Friday, February 18, 2022 at 11:08 am
“I think they’ve got that particular cohort already corralled.”
If this is true then the polling is wrong and Morrison should be the favourite at this point.
Historically-speaking, the LNP actually are the favourites. They win most of the time when competing as incumbents. They invariably campaign on lies. They almost always win. Same strategy in place this time.
Andrew_Earlwood:
Friday, February 18, 2022 at 11:09 am
[‘The facts actually speak for themselves. All Labor needs to do is to present them. Time and again. On endless loop.’]
Yes. Perhaps early campaign ads depicting Burgess’s appearance on “7.30” would be a good starting point. It really needs to be nipped in the bud before it becomes a meme.
Rakali says:
Friday, February 18, 2022 at 10:45 am
Does the Ukrainian situation have a whiff of 1938?
Despite statements to the contrary, the Ukrainian Government must be very worried. Ukraine is essentially alone like Czeckoslovakia in 1938 and 1939.
NATO has said they will not be coming to its defence should Russia invade. The only actions the US and Europe propose are “sanctions” against Russia.
It is hard to see what Putin would really gain from an invasion, apart from taking more of Ukraine to incorporate into Russia. Though dictators often like growing the State. Installing a Russian puppet in Kiev would hardly be a stable solution to anything longterm.
Following a successful Russian invasion will there be a meeting in Munich with Biden reprising the Chamberlain role?
________________________________
There are many parallels with the situation in 1938 – I have drawn them myself. But it is very dangerous to not also recognise the substantial differences. First, Czechoslovakia had defence guarantees from Britain and France. Ukraine has none. Secondly, the Munich agreement permitted the Sudetenland takeover, not the other way around. Third, the US and NATO powers have more than enough firepower to halt the Russians in their tracks, but the consequences of military action now would be appalling.
The US’s military commitment is to NATO countries, not to countries that might wish to join in the future. If anything, Putin’s conduct has actually reinforced the US’s commitment – especially after Trump weakened it. Hence the actual military activities in the expanded NATO countries.
However, I agree that it is very hard to see the benefit to Putin of invading Ukraine. If anything, the risks are high that he will undermine his standing with the Russian population (which is actually quite high) and open himself up to the possibility of a coup (which, at the moment, would not possibly be viable).
Really not sure this anti-China guff is going to have much of an impact. Majority of people have way more important issues (housing, cost of living etc, covid-impacts remaining etc) to care.
Is there a Cuban – Australian extradiction treaty?
There is. It was signed before the Communists took over but is still in enforce.
TPOF
That is a very bigly NO they do not.
Bludging @ #121 Friday, February 18th, 2022 – 11:12 am
‘I hope the campaign has a counter-plan and they begin to use it.’
My greatest fear is they don’t.
But a counter-plan could revolve around a demolition of Morrison.
poroti says:
Friday, February 18, 2022 at 11:20 am
TPOF
Third, the US and NATO powers have more than enough firepower to halt the Russians in their tracks
That is a very bigly NO they do not.
_________________________________________
Why not? I’m not suggesting the Russians are militarily weak – quite the opposite. But Mutually Assured Destruction is still a thing. And NATO does not want to make the Ukraine a wasteland by taking on the Russians.
Jaeger @ #116 Friday, February 18th, 2022 – 11:06 am
When the big bully boys from the Liberal party kick sand in your face Albo kick it back then punch ’em in the face.
mundo says:
Friday, February 18, 2022 at 11:23 am
Yes…let’s hope that Labor fight hard on Albo’s credentials. The scum lie about everything. They cannot get away with lying about China. They are detestable filth.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #112 Friday, February 18th, 2022 – 11:03 am
‘Again and again,….’
Indeed.
The time for repetition is now.
None of this Labor it too mature crap.
Just get in there.
The Liberals are bullies they think Labor won’t push back because they never do.
Well those days are over.
Hopefully.
Bludging @ #132 Friday, February 18th, 2022 – 11:27 am
Detestable rancid filth.
“Historically-speaking, the LNP actually are the favourites. They win most of the time when competing as incumbents. They invariably campaign on lies. They almost always win. Same strategy in place this time.”
Yeah the LNP is good at messenging and telling compelling believable stories that resonate, and Labor is absolutely awful at it, the one except being the brilliant messaging on medicare, which was relatively well contained with the mediscare counter campaign.
Having said that I think this low info disengaged electorate is inately fickle, and if current polling is close to accurate they are not strong behind Morrison.
Labor’s enemies lie all the time. This is their main weapon. The LNP, ON, UAP and the Greens are on a unity ticket wrt to lying. They share their lies around. Deceit and betrayal…the privileges of the Reactionaries.
WeWantPaul says:
Friday, February 18, 2022 at 11:30 am
“Historically-speaking, the LNP actually are the favourites. They win most of the time when competing as incumbents. They invariably campaign on lies. They almost always win. Same strategy in place this time.”
Yeah the LNP is good at messenging and telling compelling believable stories that resonate, and Labor is absolutely awful at it, the one except being the brilliant messaging on medicare, which was relatively well contained with the mediscare counter campaign.
Having said that I think this low info disengaged electorate is inately fickle, and if current polling is close to accurate they are not strong behind Morrison.
The electorate is not fickle. Electoral history suggests their behaviour is remarkably stable and predictable.
The polls should be taken as being provisional only, and to obliquely describe the past, not the future.
The reliable/informative bits of the polling are the respective PVs. Labor are sitting around 40. The scum are on 34. They have problems with the Lite…true…but this may really only mask the underlying pro-Scum final 2PP.
If the scum can get back to break even on the PV they will almost certainly win the election. So they need to recover 3/40….do-able. Absolutely do-able with enough lies.
WeWantPaul @ #135 Friday, February 18th, 2022 – 11:30 am
They need to be strong behind Albanese.
TPOF2 at 11:24 am
Conventional forces currently there would would be wiped . I doubt the US will pick this issue to start a global nuclear war over.
Bludging @ #126 Friday, February 18th, 2022 – 11:36 am
As I’ve been saying for some months now Labor cannot beat this lot.
Make the adjustment now.
Well it’s ‘Garbage out Friday” . Do we get to discover who Coalition MP ‘X’ is that we heard is in for the chop ?
TPOF @ #34 Friday, February 18th, 2022 – 11:24 am
Exactly. poroti is conveniently forgetting the Nuclear-armed states in NATO. Not to mention the American Military base in Germany, from which various lethal military hardware could be launched at Russia, should Putin want to chance his arm. Or what is being lined up and directed at Russia from Poland. Russia would be hard-pressed to stop it all and the last thing Putin wants is Russian civilian blood on his hands.
No one, in NATO or America, wants to use any of it but if Putin thinks he can roll over Ukraine he has another think coming.
Poroti
Friday always a good day to sack a minister. And Morrison is in the NT where there’s sure to be limited media acesss.
Hiding he is good at.
poroti @ #43 Friday, February 18th, 2022 – 11:38 am
Such a simplistic analysis favouring Putin won’t wash. You are implying full-on nuclear MAD or conventional weapons only, when there are a range of possibilities in-between those two extremes.
C@t
Putin is not going to come out of this skirmish stronger. His own people are going to be mightily pissed off with him.
Meanwhile Biden will actually garner support.
With Biden in the White House, Putin thought this was the time to deliver the final blow to NATO. But he has been surprised by the West’s response to Ukraine. His game isn’t chess, it’s poker — and he may have overplayed his hand. Garry Kasparov joins Charlie Sykes on today’s podcast.
https://www.thebulwark.com/podcast-episode/garry-kasparov-putin-is-a-merchant-of-doubt/
Don Jnr and Ivanka are going to regret the day they allowed their psychopath father to dictate terms.
I am particular concerned with how Don Jnr is coping. He is not looking and sounding mentally well at all.
Vic,
Listen to the podcast with Garry Kasporov. It’s the best explanation of the situation I have heard yet.
C@t
I agree with Gary Kasparov. Putin has made a huge error in judgment.
C@t
I will listen to it now. Thanks.