No further national voting intention polls this week after the weekend Newspoll. Presumably this means the monthly Resolve Strategic will be along next week in the Age/Herald. Roy Morgan has for some time come along fortnightly and did not report last week, but the manner of its reporting is notoriously hard to predict. Together with the ongoing New South Wales by-elections count, which is covered in the post below this one, that just leaves the following:
• Roy Morgan did have an SMS poll of 1080 respondents conducted on Monday and Tuesday which found Josh Frydenberg favoured to lead the Coalition by 38.5%, ahead of Scott Morrison on 31% and Peter Dutton on 12.5%. The question specifically asked, “if you were a Liberal or National Party voter and helping to choose the Coalition Leader for the next Federal Election, who would you prefer”.
• The West Australian had a poll by Painted Dog Research on Wednesday which found Mark McGowan’s approval rating in Western Australia had fallen from 77% to 64% since December, having peaked at 91% in September 2020, with disapproval up from 14% to 25%. The poll was conducted Friday to Tuesday from a sample of 654.
• Recommended viewing and listening: Antony Green explains the dark art of election night results projection, while pollsters Peter Lewis and John Utting discuss the even darker art of opinion polling on 2SER’s Fourth Estate program.
Yep
Sally McManus
@sallymcmanus
Unions were attacked by the Coalition Govt for opposing the China Free Trade Agreement they negotiated allowing Chinese companies to bring in their own workforce. Plus they leased Darwin port to Chinese Govt.
Desperate hypocrites.
I often wonder how much of what is going on with Morrison and his failing government is impacting widely in this country apart from the politically involved folk in the media and on blogs like PB.
However, when one thinks of the wide cross section of the public who have been impacted or dismayed by this government’s handling of Covid, Aged Care, NDIS, blatant pork- barrelling, RATS, lying to France, stuffing- up our international reputation, screwing Adelaide’s submarine project, blatant favouritism to NSW, attacks on Labor States during Covid but soft-pedalling on Liberal States doing the same as Labor States, the Bushfire disaster, giving billions away to mates like Harvey Normal and elite private schools and enabling blatant discrimination for his fundamentalist mates , failure to pass any significant legislation and a Federal ICAC sidestepped- does the list ever end?
Sure, there may be voters who surprisingly are unaffected by any of those and will support the Coalition without question, or who will fall for the usual “better economic managers ” or ” we’ll protect Australians ” bullshit.
But surely, out there in the mainstream of society, plenty of voters would be reappraising their 2019 support for Morrison. Likely enough to change the course of government.
And up into the influential sections of business and big money, previous supporters will be re-evaluating the competency of the Coalition- or rather, the incompetency.
Roll on May.
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Obsessive indeed! The Coalition are really running scared from the Greens – they know that we are the biggest threat that exists to their legacy and ongoing agenda of hard right hate.
Firefox,
that smells of hypercrits considering that How many GREENS ATTACKED LABOR FOR DOING THEIR JOB.
You don’t like it when the shoe is on the other FOOT, so can kiss my big FEET.
Zerlo @ #42 Friday, February 18th, 2022 – 8:15 am
My ex FIL was an Anglican Priest in the electorate who ministered, with the help of a junior priest, to a couple of large Chinese congregations in that electorate and they largely were as I stated. At least that what many of them intimated to them. I see Tony Windsor also made a statement about the Coalition dog whistling to frighten voters of Chinese origin. A party man are you? I see you earlier saying that there is no victimisation of the Uyghurs. Good Party line that…
Greens plot $40 billion takeover of electricity sector to eliminate coal by 2030
The hastening decline of coal-fired power is triggering a rethink of Australia’s electricity market, with the Greens proposing a $40 billion renationalisation of the sector.
Origin Energy announced on Thursday it would close New South Wales’s largest coal-fired power station in 2025, seven years ahead of schedule, which followed AGL’s earlier announcement it was bringing forward the closure of two other coal-fired plants.
The federal government is looking to the private sector for more investment in “dispatchable” power, such as batteries, pumped hydro and gas to ensure the stability of the electricity grid as coal exits the system.
But the Greens have launched an audacious policy to recast Snowy Hydro as a not-for-profit, renewables-only generator and retailer, in the hope they will hold the balance of power in the next parliament.
“Our revamped Snowy Hydro would build 25 gigawatts of new renewables and storage, which is about the same as what the coal fleet currently puts out,” Greens leader Adam Bandt told the ABC.
The Greens’ plan would also see:
* All coal and gas-fired power plants phased out by 2030
* Snowy Hydro selling electricity at cost price to consumers
* A reversal of the federal government’s $600 million investment in the Kurri Kurri gas power plant in the Hunter Valley
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-02-18/greens-propose-40-billion-takeover-of-electricity-sector/100839296
Frednk @ #41 Friday, February 18th, 2022 – 8:13 am
Last I looked they had lost ~1.8%. It may have changed, but was the swing to ALP comparable to electorates with less voters of Chinese origins? Monaro +5.9%, Bega +13.2% and a ~18% swing to an indie in Willoughby.
Tom says:
Friday, February 18, 2022 at 9:01 am
“My ex FIL was an Anglican Priest in the electorate who ministered, with the help of a junior priest, to a couple of large Chinese congregations in that electorate and they largely were as I stated. At least that what many of them intimated to them. I see Tony Windsor also made a statement about the Coalition dog whistling to frighten voters of Chinese origin. A party man are you? I see you earlier saying that there is no victimisation of the Uyghurs. Good Party line that…”
I’m sure they have been brainwashed to believe that their own race are mass murderers and not the western countries (see Middle East, Africa).
I noticed you bring up Uyghurs (of which I know Uyghurs people) because I spent 2 years in China.
In my stay in China I have visited and was invited by various minority people while as both student and as a tourist.
Super friendly people btw.
Tom says:
Friday, February 18, 2022 at 9:06 am
I’m pretty sure there is only two running in Willoughby Penn and James.
Kos Samaras
@KosSamaras
·
11h
The Aussie meat grinder. An industry built on and reliant upon the myth that none of us ever get old and sick.
sbs.com.au
Australia sees more aged care COVID-19 deaths in six weeks of 2022 than entire 2020
More people have died in aged care in January and February this year in COVID-19 outbreaks compared to all of 2020.
UK Cartoons:
Tom Tom Tom.
Sigh.
Strathfield had several left of centre candidates, including the high profile Elizabeth Farrell, who snagged over 9% of the vote and recommended that voters exhaust. I doubt that she picked up the anti ChiComm vote. Neither=, it seems did the Liberals, whose primary vote also fell – by about 1.5% last time I checked.
There are dedicated anti ChiComm folk in the Chinese community. No doubt. However I strongly suspect that most know that the situation is far more complex than scomo and his bank of xenophobes are making out. I doubt they are turning a single vote in the Chinese community their way on this issue. I suspect that they may well have lost quite a few votes out of it.
Make no mistake, this dog whistling campaign is aimed at the low information low interest bogan vote in the outer burbs and regions. A white bread sonata played very off key.
Victoria records 14 deaths, 6,935 new cases
There are 451 people in hospital, with 64 of those in intensive care and 16 people requiring a ventilator.
………………………………………….
NSW records 15 deaths, 9,243 new cases
There are 1,381 people in hospital, with 92 of those in intensive care.
Morning all. Thanks for the roundup. Desperation accurately describes Liberal tactics.
The Hillsong candidate calling Albo the Manchurian candidate is galling in the extreme. These sorts of obviously false attacks only damage the atacker.
“ These sorts of obviously false attacks only damage the attacker.”
In the eyes of right minded people who are paying attention? Perhaps.
In the lizard brains of low interest low information hi-vis wearing bogans in the outer burbs and regions? Perhaps not. Which is the whole point of this gambit. It is also the whole point behind the LNP’s belated China pivot from circa 2018. National interest be damned.
James Paterson 0 Dennis Richardson 100.
When you a just a kid you shouldn’t try to play in the big league.
You get smashed.
Greens target gas, coal seats in NSW and Queensland
Adam Bandt will tell voters in coal and gas electorates in NSW and Queensland that the Greens will help create new mining jobs and protect their communities in the transition to a net-zero-carbon economy.
The Greens leader will travel to the NSW Hunter Region – the nation’s coalmining heartland – next week before heading to Queensland, where the left-wing party is increasingly confident of winning an additional Senate spot and three Brisbane seats.
Mr Bandt, who wants to visit coalmines and gas sites in both states, said “no workers or communities” can be left behind in the march to carbon neutrality.
The Australian understands the Greens will not repeat a Bob Brown anti-Adani style convoy during the election campaign, with the party nominating Gladstone teacher Penny Allman-Payne as their lead Queensland Senate candidate.
Mr Bandt, a former Slater and Gordon partner, said the Greens would make it clear that although they want to get out of coal and gas, “we need a plan to do it”.
“I’ll be listening and sharing our plans to support workers,” Mr Bandt told The Australian.
“Before coming to this job I represented workers in coal-fired power stations in fights with their employers.
“I know we have got to support workers and communities through the transition and that’s going to be my priority.”
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/greens-target-gas-coal-seats-in-nsw-and-queensland/news-story/306d9179b8d6e25c0bb283f054559adf
Ash from Tonga volcano explosion linked to crippling power failure on HMAS Adelaide
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-02-17/hmas-adelaide-volcanic-explosion-power-failures-tonga/100839906
Bert says:
Friday, February 18, 2022 at 3:15 am
If you’ve got a couple of minutes this really is worth a listen….
https://youtu.be/Tx5Tk3CQl2g
————
Very good, thanks Bert
Interesting comments from Bandt relating to the discussion about seats we were having the other day…
The Greens believe they can pick up three Senate seats in Queensland, NSW and South Australia at the May election and have thrown resources into Griffith, Ryan and Brisbane.
…
“I think the Greens will win more seats than the climate independents at this election,” the Greens leader said. “We are campaigning hard in 10 seats and we are doing very well in about five of those. We even have our noses in front,” he said.
“In the coming parliament, the Greens will have more seats than the climate independents. And we’ll be in a powerful position.”
Mr Bandt said the Greens were willing to work with climate change independents in the next parliament.
“We’re not really in competition with the climate independents. They’re focusing on different seats to us with the exception of Kooyong,” he said.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/greens-target-gas-coal-seats-in-nsw-and-queensland/news-story/306d9179b8d6e25c0bb283f054559adf
“More people have died in aged care in January and February this year in COVID-19 outbreaks compared to all of 2020.”
More people have died of (from/with) covid in January and February this year than of covid in 2020.
The phrasing of that Morgan question on preferred Liberal leader is… odd. Asking respondents to imagine they were somebody else just seems like it would warp the results.
Firefox says:
Friday, February 18, 2022 at 9:38 am
Green set rules On climate change for backing Labor:
https://amp.abc.net.au/article/100809182
Bandt rules out with Labor 3 days ago:
https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/adam-bandt-rules-out-greens-coalition-with-labor/news-story/442d3b5e093bce365891bbf22725e1f5
Apparently now “open coalition with Labor”
https://www.skynews.com.au/opinion/paul-murray/adam-bandt-still-open-to-formal-deal-with-labor/video/1877ae21a0cb9da409171bbfde5ec8d6
You chop and change like Scott Morrison lies
” These sorts of obviously false attacks only damage the attacker.”
Or at least one would hope so.
A_E
“Make no mistake, this dog whistling campaign is aimed at the low information low interest bogan vote in the outer burbs and regions. A white bread sonata played very off key.”
—-
and out in nationals territory they call it the “moonshine sonata”. -a.v.
NSW Covid deaths:
– Start of Pandemic (Feb 20) to start of Delta (~ 30/6/21): 54
– Delta wave (~ Jul to Nov 21): 574
– Delta phasing out to Omicron (~1/12/21 to present): 1,171.
https://covidlive.com.au/report/daily-deaths/nsw
Shortly after the 2019 election, SfM was kowtowing to the Chinese by welcoming Chinese warships into Sydney Harbour
In JUNE 2019
The arrival of three Chinese warships into Sydney Harbour on Monday morning came as a huge surprise to most Australians. Their visit was kept so quiet that even the NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian wasn’t aware Sydney’s Garden Island would be playing host to three huge naval ships and more than 700 foreign sailors. Understandably, the arrival caused quite a stir, with many questioning why the public wasn’t informed and pointing out the controversial timing of the visit with the 30th anniversary of the Tiananmen Square massacre.
Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s offhand assurance it was not a surprise and no more than a “reciprocal visit” didn’t do much to quell the questions about why the public was left in the dark. “It may have been a surprise to others, but it certainly wasn’t a surprise to the Government,”
Other critics “blasted the sensitive timing of the visit in relation to the Tiananmen Square massacre. In the violent suppression of the Tiananmen demonstrations, which occurred on this day in 1989, the Chinese military gunned down hundreds of its own citizens after protesters demanded political change and an end to state corruption”.
https://www.news.com.au/technology/innovation/military/important-detail-we-missed-in-the-arrival-of-chinese-warships-to-sydney/news-story/a8474e5d7219ee21d42f3bf73388c7c1
Scomo seems to forget things that are inconvenient to his shouty face myth making.
It will be interesting to see if next tranche of polling results show any effect of Government’s negative tactics; or indeed if the ‘meme’ of Sinophobia takes hold.
There’s a reason the Coalition goes after the Stupid vote…
How quaint. He doesn’t “forget” – we know, because there are now dozens of examples on record – that he will blithely say whatever he thinks is convenient at the time with no regard for what he said last year, or last week, or even yesterday. He dissembles instinctively, habitually now.
That doesn’t mean he won’t achieve what he wants to achieve.
Latest friendlyjordies.
https://youtu.be/6Jj9rcHD-FM
A chance to reflect soberly on the passing of time:
Chris Dillow
@CJFDillow
·
11h
Horrible fact: the release of the Human League’s Don’t You Want Me is now more temporally distant from us than it was from the attack on Pearl Harbor. (14692 days vs 14600).
Zerlo, if you were looking for nonsense spin and lies to support your warped prejudices about the Greens, then the Murdoch press was certainly the right place to look. They’ve gone into overdrive attacking the Greens over the last couple of weeks. The panic is setting in for the far right as they witness the rise of the left.
The simple truth is that between 1996 and 2018 the LNP were brazen appeases of the Chinese Communist Party. Only one Australian party provided consistent leadership – consistent with our values and the path chartered by pioneers like Gough Whitlam and Stephen Fitzgerald – the Australian Labor Party.
As late as 2018 Scot Morrison was talking up and defending Australia’s Strategic Partnership with China: something that the Rudd-Gillard Government never supported. Something that folk like Stephen Fitzgerald – and all the old china hands – strongly recommended against.
Back in the early 70’s Chairman Mao asked Gough directly whether Australia would walk away from the American alliance in favour of one with the ChiComms. He said no. To the ChiComm leadership’s face.
Compare that consistency with the present leadership of the LNP. It’s not just Howard, Downer or even Abbott who practiced appeasement: it was Morrison and, by virtue of his senior positions in cabinet and the national security subcommittee of cabinet – Dutton.
Further, no one in their right mind should accept that the LNP have some ‘get out of jail for free’ card to play regarding china. There appeasement continued for a decade after Rudd spoke out on human rights bin a key note set speech in Beijing in 2008 (which the LNP strongly criticised), the 2009 Defence White paper – which clearly identified the changing and looming security environment in the Asia Pacific (and which coincided with the commencement of the mass build up of the PLA’s offensive capability, especially the PLAN’s Blue Water navy pivot), and most damningly, the LNP’s appeasement continued for another 6 years after the rise of Xi to becoming the Supreme Leader at the end of 2012.
In that last period the LNP Government appeased Xi directly, by:
1. Abbott leading a trade delegation to china of state premiers in 2014, explicitly telling them to make as many deals as possible (ironic given the pile on to ‘Dictator Dan’s’ deal in 2017 – which the LNP federal government gave explicit sanction for in the framework negotiation phases);
2. Abbott inviting Xi to visit Australia and address both Houses of Parliament;
3. Abbott and Turnbull inviting Huawei to develop the 5G network, when that company had been ruled out as a partner by the previous labor Government regarding the 4G network and the NBN;
4. Facilitating negotiations, and then approving the NT CLP Government’s 99 lease of the Port of Darwin. THAT falls directly on Morrison’s desk as he did the final sign off in 2015/16 as Treasurer; and
5. Developing the Strategic Partnership with China – overturning 45 years of bipartisan policy and departmental advice: something that Morrison is on public record boasting about as late as 2018.
Here is some Kevin Rudd, so set most of this out in detail in a virtual press conference he ran two days ago:
https://youtu.be/WnzJCiF3lgs
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
I guess now that Australia is at 185 Wuflu deaths per million of population, courtesy of a deadly mix of Spinocchio/ DoPe, it was 90 or so by mid Dec, or across the ditch now 10 (was 10, and don’t get me started on the Poms, Yanks, or Canadians), what will the Fibs/ Nats …
Perhaps, a state of emergency, after Ukraine and Taiwan blow up, as America rallies allies and partners and friends, declare a ‘Don’t Look Up’ extinction level event on the way, to postpone the election?
I mean, they have espoused belief, talked of … everything else.
[Besides, it isn’t like there wasn’t a coup in 1975.]
Spot on!
Jonathan Green
Just so we’re clear… this past parliamentary fortnight has been spent purely in slanging matches prompted by legislation introduced not as part of national stewardship, but purely to create a fertile environment for angry, self-interested dispute.
This is a failed system.
GoldenSmaug
Amazing isnt it!
Peter Garrett turns 69 this year.
Midnight Oil on Resist and their last ever tour: ‘We mean it, man!’
https://www.theguardian.com/music/2022/feb/18/midnight-oil-on-resist-and-their-last-ever-tour-we-mean-it-man
Firefox says:
Friday, February 18, 2022 at 10:29 am
Zerlo, if you were looking for nonsense spin and lies to support your warped prejudices about the Greens
Haha haha trying to claim you are victim now, Firefox.
Your leader should make his mind up.
I often do “temporal distance” calculations in my head. For example Bob Hawke’s accession to the Prime Ministership is roughly as temporally distant from today as it was from the D-Day landings. The Dismissal is about as temporally distant from today as it was from the Wall Street Crash that started the Great Depression.
Yep. Funny that…….
—-
Two years ago Morrison bragged that Chinese investment in Australia had grown 800% from 2008-2018
“We would be mugs if we denied ourselves access to this capital”
In this time Morrison’s govt let the Ports of Darwin & Newcastle be sold to China
Who’s soft on national security? https://t.co/XXOLbQpzpI
The release of the Human League’s Don’t You Want Me is a day that will live in infamy
I think Morrison and Dutton have formed an alliance against Frydenberg. No challenge. Run hard on Sinophobia and hope to win the election after which Morrison will hand over to Dutton.
Jaeger
Going to see them. Saw them up at the Hunter last year where Garrett was in full jerky movements dance mode. Some trepidation that something might snap.
Scotty is posting wall to wall women related stuff
Trying to get women vote back.
“Spot on!
Jonathan Green
Just so we’re clear… this past parliamentary fortnight has been spent purely in slanging matches prompted by legislation introduced not as part of national stewardship, but purely to create a fertile environment for angry, self-interested dispute.
This is a failed system.”
100% +1