No further national voting intention polls this week after the weekend Newspoll. Presumably this means the monthly Resolve Strategic will be along next week in the Age/Herald. Roy Morgan has for some time come along fortnightly and did not report last week, but the manner of its reporting is notoriously hard to predict. Together with the ongoing New South Wales by-elections count, which is covered in the post below this one, that just leaves the following:
• Roy Morgan did have an SMS poll of 1080 respondents conducted on Monday and Tuesday which found Josh Frydenberg favoured to lead the Coalition by 38.5%, ahead of Scott Morrison on 31% and Peter Dutton on 12.5%. The question specifically asked, “if you were a Liberal or National Party voter and helping to choose the Coalition Leader for the next Federal Election, who would you prefer”.
• The West Australian had a poll by Painted Dog Research on Wednesday which found Mark McGowan’s approval rating in Western Australia had fallen from 77% to 64% since December, having peaked at 91% in September 2020, with disapproval up from 14% to 25%. The poll was conducted Friday to Tuesday from a sample of 654.
• Recommended viewing and listening: Antony Green explains the dark art of election night results projection, while pollsters Peter Lewis and John Utting discuss the even darker art of opinion polling on 2SER’s Fourth Estate program.
ag
If you want me to scroll past your posts just use the wrong poster name.
What happened to
….. in sickness and in health, for richer or poorer, for better or worse, but never for lunch.
I dislike this sort of discussion, regarding it as a deflection from the main game. We are into the beginning of the Anthropocene Extinction Event. Given the latency of the damage caused by both pre- and post-climate change human disturbance we should be focusing scarce conservation resources on helping now-common species to survive, not faffing around with esoterica.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/feb/19/de-extinction-puzzle-how-decoding-numbat-dna-could-help-resurrect-the-tasmanian-tiger
Q: I have chronic fatigue syndrome.
After my second Pfizer last year, I experience significant worsening of fatigue for 2 months. I am not keen to repeat that experience.
I am in the same boat, I spent two weeks in bed after my Pfizer booster. Heard Moderna is better?????
Ukraine thing looks a bit more dodgy.
From the Guardian this morning:
“Leaders of Russian-backed breakaway regions of Luhansk and Donetsk claimed to be under attack from Ukraine and ordered the mass evacuation of civilians.”
“As the US and its allies warned of “false flags” that would give a pretext for a Russian attack, a gas pipeline in Luhansk caught fire after explosions, and a second blast hit the city about 40 minutes later. Earlier on Friday, a car bomb detonated in an empty lot in Donetsk.”
Looking to me like Putin has things set up to do serious raid /incursion out of Belarus to pin down the Ukranians. Or at least keep the threat of that immediate and credible.
I think the taking / keeping territory ground actions will be in Luhansk and Donetsk. Expansion of those areas Putin already effectively controls and one that has short secure supply lines for any Russian forces operating there.
And while we are talking the kind of abominable shit that would be war in Ukraine….what about the Transdniestria region in Moldova??
https://www.britannica.com/place/Transdniestria
Bet the Ukranians are keeping an eye out there. 🙁 Regardless of the geopolitics of this the Ukranians have a completely shit immediate tactical situation to deal with.
Putin i think has the most to gain and the least to lose by keeping a credible threat going to the north and west of Ukraine, and biting off a bit more of the east giving him complete and more secure control of the Sea of Azov and better access to the Crimea.
Complete crap and i kinda wish Putin would have an accident. 🙁
Can you virtue signal over a movie?
We have it on HDD, a pristine copy for late nights when the paranoia is particularly pressing.
Also that other masterpiece, Seven Days In May, as well as Dr Strangelove and Fail Safe and, for the really dark times, The Andromeda Strain.
Never hurts to be too careful.
“rhwombat and imacca
You both seem to have medical backgrounds.”
Sorry snappy, i did not mean to give that impression. Science yup, Plant Biology and some Marine as a field and tech person. I make it, they break it and then i fix it. 🙂 So, an appreciation of actual data i guess that shapes my attitudes. Oh, and raving leftie unionist been called by some….apparently. 🙂
“I am in the same boat, I spent two weeks in bed after my Pfizer booster. Heard Moderna is better?????”
***
Not having had Pfizer I can’t compare the two, but the Moderna shots I’ve had have been pretty good. Left shoulder felt like it had been run over after a few hours but apart from that nothing much. Bit less energy than normal but not too bad.
Labor’s Higgins candidate was promoting the idea that AZ was a population level experiment.
That position has validated the UAP/RDA/Antivax movement claims that vaccinations were “experimental”.
No amount of turd polishing will erase her role in undermining vaccination uptake in Victoria.
Interesting that the comments on the Hartcher article re Scott Morrison lasting a full term are almost 100% negative to ScoMo. Over 300 of them.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/arise-scott-morrison-our-first-full-term-pm-since-howard-20220218-p59xji.html#comments.
I had two AZ and a Pfizer booster, as did my partner.
I had chills for a few hours after first AZ, partner was in bed for 2 days with chills and shakes.
Second AZ no ill effects for either of us.
Pfizer booster left us both feeling like hit by a bus for a couple of days.
From Hartcher’s SMH article:
Excellent. Had there been regime change (say, to Frydenberg) Labor’s chances may’ve suffered a blow. Now, however, the Tory election campaign will be headed by Morrison, whose main line of attack has been and will be painting Albanses as being soft on national security. He can’t run on his legislative record in government because he doesn’t have one to speak of.
And it goes without saying that Morrison will play very dirty; for if he fails, Labor will create an ICAC with appropriate and retrospective powers, which should have as its priority the examination of the graft of quite a number of former ministers. I’d be very fearful if I were one of them.
Torchbearer @ #654 Saturday, February 19th, 2022 – 12:47 pm
Me too! Myalgic Encephalomyelitis (ME) is a bitch! I’ve got to be so careful of Micro Sleeps. I just went into the Twilight Zone after my Pfizer Booster for a day, then in dribs and drabs for about a week. Nothing after the first 2 AZ though.
The test for David Speers with his interview with the Boy Senator tomorrow will be to hold him to account for his egregious lies concerning the policy positions on China of the Boy’s elders.
Starting with his opinion piece in 9/Faix following Paul Keating’s Nation Press Club address. The Boy accused Keating of wanting the United States to leave the Asia pacific altogether:
https://www.smh.com.au/national/simply-foul-and-morally-vacuous-if-keating-had-his-way-we-d-cast-aside-24-million-free-people-20211111-p5983g.html
“If Keating had his way and the US bowed out of the Indo-Pacific in favour of China, we would live to regret it.”
This is what Keating has actually said, consistently over the years, including in Beijing in 2013 before the Vice premier of China, at the NPC, and in an unpublished article responding to Peter Hartcher’s hatchet job on his NPC appearance in November:-
“
I had this to say:
“A lot of attention has been given to America’s responsibility to China’s rise — but China too has equal responsibility for creating a new stable and sustainable order in Asia. As it steps up to a larger leadership role it will at the same time need to be willing to accept and respect restraints on the way it uses its immense strength, because the acceptance of such restraints by great powers is the key to any successful and durable international order.”
I then went on to instance two points.
I said, first, and most obviously, “China should continually reaffirm by word and by deed its commitment to repudiate the use or threat of force to settle disputes”. I went on to say, “the work of reassurance is never done, that the stronger China becomes the more it will need to reassure its neighbours and this will depend on deeds more than words”.
Second, “China will do a great deal to help build a continuing stable order in Asia if it quite unambiguously welcomes and supports a continued strong role for the United States in Asia”.
https://johnmenadue.com/paul-keating-responds-to-peter-hartchers-king-canute-column/
_________
You see what is happening is that the SMH and LNP are tag teaming. First Hartcher lies about an alternative view to his being presented by a former PM:
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/king-keating-sticks-it-to-the-world-20211112-p598je.html
then the SMH invite the Boy Senator to lie in an op.piece (see above), they then invite Keating to respond, fail to publish his response (and deny they asked him to write said response in the first place and claim that the response did nothing to advance the debate):
https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/no-mr-keating-we-do-not-censor-20211119-p59aiv.html
I do note in passing that that little game was enough for C@tmomma to disavow Keating altogether …
Anyhoo. I digress. The fact remains that the Boy Senator has a nasty habit of lying about the views of others and it is high time someone pulled him up of it. Keating would be a good start.
Over to you, Speersy.
I had two AZ and a Moderna booster.
Vague unwellness for a day after 1st AZ as i remember.
Sore arm the day after booster that lasted a couple of days.
Overall, easy experience. Being in the soon to be opened cave picking up a lot of resignation from people. Already people making social arrangements are qualifying acceptance based on possible covid exposures for themselves or having to test and isolate.
Think we may well go through something similar to the East where there is no official lockdown, but an unofficial one as people pull back a bit. Remember, in W.A we are pretty much coming off NO significant restrictions as the W.A. govts policies have been effective so far in holding it out or holding it off.
Was talking to the aged and immune compromised mum yesterday. Her take (after seeing whats happened elsewhere) is that if the W.A. govt hadn’t taken the stance that they had, then there are people like her (and maybe her??) who would have died already and NOT gotten last Xmas / New Years with their grandkiddies. If you really want to stir her up….show her a picture of Clive Palmer and then back off and let her rant about Morrison. 🙂
laughtong @ #580 Saturday, February 19th, 2022 – 1:03 pm
One thing I reckon people are pee’d off about is that they didn’t realise how much Morrison would attempt to inject his religion into his Prime Ministership. It’s like that’s all that motivated him for the last 3 years. Getting more of his Pentecostalists into parliament, into positions of power, handing pork out to them and then his vain attempt at creating a legacy and entrenching the whole shebang into law with his RD Bill. Ugh.
The greens are not going to win in Kooyong. The independent Monique Ryan is out and about everywhere. The Greens also lack a high profile candidate like they had last time (and Labor basically played dead in the seat too tactically). The resources (money and people) would be better spent elsewhere.
As for Higgins, they got in front in 2016 by running LGBT+ activist Jason Ball when marriage equality was the big issue in the seat. His profile was still high last time in 2019 but he is not running again. There has been a few boundary changes, losing small bits of Camberwell and Hughesdale and gaining Windsor. So it could be closer and more worth the effort…
But…. there is not a “teal” type independent in Higgins. And I don’t know if there will be anyone official…. but anyone is allowed to run and someone might jump in as an “environmental concerned” independent…. run off the back of the publicity that the others are getting and scooping up a fair chunk of votes from the Greens (and the ALP and anyone else sick of the government). Then it would could be come a four cornered contest.
imacca @ #641 Saturday, February 19th, 2022 – 12:19 pm
Unfortunately the “stabiliser/reporter” system of the UQ clamp technique used an HIV Env protein that caused a positive HIV Ab test in vivo. This cannot cause HIV, but a false positive HIV test from vaccination is a clinical application killer. I don’t think we can keep up with the sporadic global variance in COVID vaccine that will occur (over at least the next decade) unless we use those vaccines we have to protect the Have-nots (mainly in Africa), instead of our own spoiled skins.
” entrenching the whole shebang into law with his RD Bill. Ugh.”
***
…which Labor voted for unamended.
Bushfire Bill:
Saturday, February 19, 2022 at 12:51 pm
Probably not but that won’t stop Morrison from trying.
I’ve seen the ’62 film version of “The Manchurian Candidate” but not the 2004 film, which you can buy on eBay for $12.95. And Dr. Strangelove is one of my favourites, way ahead of its time.
OPINION
Arise, Scott Morrison, our first full-term PM since Howard..
So it’s been ugly, but it’s been effective. Congratulations, Prime Minister.
WTF does that mean?
What part of it has been effective.. if the aim was to have a cluster*k for 3 years.. then sure it’s been effective.. mission accomplished.
“The greens are not going to win in Kooyong. The independent Monique Ryan is out and about everywhere. The Greens also lack a high profile candidate like they had last time (and Labor basically played dead in the seat too tactically).”
***
Piers Mitchem (Greens Kooyong candidate) has been extremely active and has been out campaigning hard against JF for quite some time. Very high profile campaign. You can check out how active he is here: https://auspol.co/?s=piers+mitchem
FoxxyLove
“…which Labor voted for unamended.”
Yes, but….
“Unfortunately the “stabiliser/reporter” system of the UQ clamp technique used an HIV Env protein that caused a positive HIV Ab test in vivo. This cannot cause HIV, but a false positive HIV test from vaccination is a clinical application killer.”
Yup, have read that, but also that after a period of curling up into a fetal position and having a good sob, the group involved have rebuilt the platform without that and are getting back on track with applying it. 🙂
Explaining parliamentary tactics to the Greens is like explaining Norway to a dog.
Imacca
Had a pfizer booster yesterday. Sore arm (a bit) is only effect so far.
My mother is pretty much housebound with a bad hip that really makes getting in and out of a car difficult.
Somehow my sister organised for somebody to give her vaccinations at home. Not sure of the nuts and bolts but the people who did it said she was the first they had done.
Talking to her yesterday I asked if she had any reaction at the time and she said the person had warned her of all the side effects: headache, sore legs etc. and to just take paracetamol.
She said she told the woman she was 97 and her leg is sore all the time!
Oldies are tough.
Firefox – He won’t crack 10%.
U.S. COVID update:
– New cases: 112,528 ……………………….. – New deaths: 2,643
– States reporting: 49/50
– In hospital: 65,704 (-2,481)
– In ICU: 12,970 (-515)
958,300 total deaths now
Phoenix
I predicted a million deaths in the US about 12 months ago. Its sad to see it will probably surpass that figure.
“Yes, but….
”
***
Quite.
bakunin says:
Saturday, February 19, 2022 at 12:59 pm
Labor’s Higgins candidate was promoting the idea that AZ was a population level experiment.
That position has validated the UAP/RDA/Antivax movement claims that vaccinations were “experimental”.
No amount of turd polishing will erase her role in undermining vaccination uptake in Victoria.
The Australian Labor party has preselected a doctor who wrongly claimed the AstraZeneca vaccine has ‘failed in terms of its efficacy.’Cracking scoop from @jekearsley https://t.co/q0LV8nVtYM— Latika M Bourke (@latikambourke) July 29, 2021
The tweets the Greens find so problematic are in this article here ( nothing disappears from the internet).
https://www.pedestrian.tv/news/labor-michelle-ananda-rajah-astrazeneca/
Given what has happened ( AZ abandoned, phizer and moderna taken up), I would suggest her tweets where insightful and probable based on an education that gave her the background needed to judge these issues.
I would suggest if she was in a position of power the probability of putting all our eggs in one basket and as a result slowing down our vaccination program by months would have been less likely to have happened.
They were the tweets of an expert not someone supporting conspiracy theories. For their grubby little aims, one would expect the Greens to pretend otherwise
Given Morrison and Hunt went all in on AZ, anyone who put the slows on AZ at a time of low vaccination was putting purity above pragmatism. Jeannette Young comes to mind.
Firefox says:
Saturday, February 19, 2022 at 1:32 pm
….
Piers Mitchem (Greens Kooyong candidate) has been extremely active and has been out campaigning hard against JF for quite some time. Very high profile campaign. You can check out how active he is here: https://auspol.co/?s=piers+mitchem
You guys a delusional. As preferential voting is compulsory, if you direct preferences away from the Liberals no damage done ( except for those that actually believe the anti labor stuff the greens publish and those caught up in a Liberal/Green wedge – if they manage to get off the ground).. We will see.
“Firefox – He won’t crack 10%.”
***
I reckon he and the Teal will both crack 20% and JF will be in real trouble once the prefs are counted* – the Greens are already above 20% in Kooyong anyway (21.24% in 2019).
*Unless JF becomes Lib leader before the election, which would make it much harder to take the seat from him. Still possible though. The Libs sandbagged the hell out of it last time but he still suffered a large swing. I don’t know how many more sandbags they have left to throw at it, so to speak.
Rex Douglas says:
Saturday, February 19, 2022 at 2:05 pm
Given Morrison and Hunt went all in on AZ, anyone who put the slows on AZ at a time of low vaccination was putting purity above pragmatism. Jeannette Young comes to mind.
And how was the mistake to be fixed if the experts didn’t point out the error?
Firefox, the unknown is the % that will move directly from the greens to the teals, You won’t get 20% this time that is for sure.
It will be interesting to see how the Greens direct preferences.
steve davissays: Saturday, February 19, 2022 at 1:55 pm
Phoenix
I predicted a million deaths in the US about 12 months ago. Its sad to see it will probably surpass that figure.
*************************************************
2 years ago today: The death toll from COVID-19 reaches 2,000. It now stands at 5.9 million
As the AEC results show, the Greens and Inds are both on the rise in Kooyong while the Libs and Labor are in decline…
https://results.aec.gov.au/24310/Website/HouseDivisionPage-24310-221.htm
Huge swing from JF/Libs to Yates/Ind last time. Strong swing to Greens and away from Labor too. If that continues this time then JF should be in trouble.
Snappy Tom @ #644 Saturday, February 19th, 2022 – 12:23 pm
So far, Moderna is probably your best bet (cf Pfizer), but for the TL:DR reasons below I doubt that any vaccines are immune from exacerbating CFS.
CFS is hard to define, but the common mechanism seems to be dysregulation (mainly persistent lack of down-regulation) of cellular (mainly memory T lymphocyte) responses to various stimuli (ie not just one organism or epitope) – mainly via non-specific activation pathway such as TOLL-like receptors. Everyone with functioning immune systems get some of these effects with some stimuli – the problem for some people (and stimuli) seems to be with the off switch The fatigue is an epiphenomenon of the persistent activation (with mechanisms as diverse as changes in the cellular cytokine, glucose and lipid metabolism in the patient and their gut biome) and is not very susceptible to any treatment. Antiinflammatories (like paracetamol, NSAIDs or corticosteroids) may help with cytokine induced muscle pain, but have little effect on fatigue. Vitamins, supplements, diets, “tonics” & “boosters” are a waste of time unless there is a specific deficiency – which is very rare (like scurvy). On the up side, this response does not cause long term damage or make one more susceptible to infection or it’s consequences – apart from more fatigue.
Since vaccination works largely by stimulating a memory T-lymphocyte response to specific epitopes expressed by viruses or other organisms, it’s not surprising that they usually exacerbate CFS in those who already have the imunological “settings” to do so. Unfortunately we can neither predict it or modulate it – except after the event.
That said, there is evidence that the current iterations of Moderna is a little better that Pfizer . We don’t yet know much about this issue with Novovax or the non-Adenovirus vector vaccines. Sorry for the wet blanket.
“It will be interesting to see how the Greens direct preferences.”
***
1 Greens
2 Teal
3 Labor
4 The rest…
The Greens ran Julian Burnside in Kooyong. Julian.Burnside.
I’m sure the Green candidate this time is doing well in terms of campaigning, but let’s not be delusional, Julian Burnside was perfectly packaged for the electorate with a massive profile BEFORE the campaign. You can argue it was similar for Jason Ball in Higgins, but even then, the Green vote went down.
I expect the teal in Kooyong will do pretty well – vacuuming up Yates’ vote, along with some Liberal and probably a bit of the Green vote too.
Long story short, it’s pretty unreasonable to expect the Green vote to be the same in either, frankly.
Jeannette Young wasn’t in charge of the national advice that recommended that AZ only be used for people 60 and up, and that the early data that was showing that it was less effective than the other vaccine, but this is how it goes, people try to deny the past and the context of why things were said at the time.
Like covid 19, some people are now trying to do a kind of revisionism, and now that we got Omicron, and a highly vaccinated population. Denying the past and its context gets washed away.
Suddenly to some Covid 19 was never a dangerous virus, despite all the many deaths that we saw in places when they didn’t lock down.
Casey Briggs is presenting ABC news. Good on him.
Frydenberg is guilty of treasonous conduct against the great state of Victoria. His conduct at the height of the Delta outbreak was outrageous. This should be the primary campaign topic for the teal, the Green and the Labor candidates in Kooyong. It will take a collective effort to rid the parliament of Frydenberg.
The implementation of a Federal ICAC with retrospective power should be the first bill presented by the Albanese government.
Firefox says:
Saturday, February 19, 2022 at 2:17 pm
“It will be interesting to see how the Greens direct preferences.”
***
1 Greens
2 Teal
3 Labor
4 The rest…
If the Greens stick to that then the Teal will win. The % fall of the green vote will be interesting.
Yet another Voices candidate unfurls her flag this time in Casey Victoria seat of the retiring ex speaker Tony Smith and a very well credentialed she is.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/no-more-yelling-at-tv-now-candidate-has-voiced-her-case-for-casey-20220218-p59xq0.html
Talk the talk, walk the walk.
Her last job was CEO at sustainability Victoria.
Claire Ferres Miles – Chief Executive Officer
‘All Victorians are seeking advice and action to reduce their energy use, recycle more, and respond to the challenges of our changing climate. I look forward to working with all stakeholders to ensure Victoria’s future is one of social, economic and environmental prosperity.’
Claire was appointed Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Sustainability Victoria in November 2019, previously City of Melbourne’s Director City Strategy and Place.
Claire is an optimistic leader driven by curiosity and purpose. She has held executive roles in Transport for London, Victorian Government, Local Government and in the private sector, and is highly regarded for her collaborative leadership, authentic community engagement and innovative partnerships. Claire has been recognised as an IPAA Victorian Fellow (2019) and a ‘Top 50 Woman in the Victorian Public Sector’ (2017).
Claire is passionate about leading teams to achieve public value and positive impact, and deliver tangible outcomes for our community, with significant achievements in affordable housing, sustainability, transport and planning – to ensure our future is one of social, economic and environmental prosperity.
She has a Master of Transport, a Master of Traffic, a Bachelor of Planning & Design with majors in Landscape Architecture and Urban Design and is a Graduate of the Australian Institute of Company Directors and IPAA Integrity and Ethical Leadership Program.
“Long story short, it’s pretty unreasonable to expect the Green vote to be the same in either, frankly.”
***
Our candidates last time were really good, no doubt about that.
However, I’d say that the candidates we have this time are some of the best that we’ve had in quite some time. You’d expect me to say that of course but I really do mean it. They’re the best crop of candidates we’ve had since 2010 for sure, and maybe even longer.
Rex Douglas says:
Saturday, February 19, 2022 at 2:20 pm
Frydenberg is guilty of treasonous conduct against the great state of Victoria. His conduct at the height of the Delta outbreak was outrageous. This should be the primary campaign topic for the teal, the Green and the Labor candidates in Kooyong. It will take a collective effort to rid the parliament of Frydenberg.
I agree, in my view Frydenberg is gone, it will be one of several Teal seats.
As preferences have to be allocated the only way the Greens could help save him is to preference the Liberals before the Teals. Not directing preferences as they did in the NSW election won’t help much.
The Greens can’t really preference the Liberals first, for the same reason they can’t form a minority government with the Liberals.
These Voices candidates would go straight into cabinet if those positions were based on merit.