No further national voting intention polls this week after the weekend Newspoll. Presumably this means the monthly Resolve Strategic will be along next week in the Age/Herald. Roy Morgan has for some time come along fortnightly and did not report last week, but the manner of its reporting is notoriously hard to predict. Together with the ongoing New South Wales by-elections count, which is covered in the post below this one, that just leaves the following:
• Roy Morgan did have an SMS poll of 1080 respondents conducted on Monday and Tuesday which found Josh Frydenberg favoured to lead the Coalition by 38.5%, ahead of Scott Morrison on 31% and Peter Dutton on 12.5%. The question specifically asked, “if you were a Liberal or National Party voter and helping to choose the Coalition Leader for the next Federal Election, who would you prefer”.
• The West Australian had a poll by Painted Dog Research on Wednesday which found Mark McGowan’s approval rating in Western Australia had fallen from 77% to 64% since December, having peaked at 91% in September 2020, with disapproval up from 14% to 25%. The poll was conducted Friday to Tuesday from a sample of 654.
• Recommended viewing and listening: Antony Green explains the dark art of election night results projection, while pollsters Peter Lewis and John Utting discuss the even darker art of opinion polling on 2SER’s Fourth Estate program.
Labor simply lack the experience (in pork-barrelling, gaslighting, dog whistling, obfuscating and beating the drums of war) that is required to form government.
@ Boer:
“ Why for example, promote boycotts of Israel but not of, say, Russia, Sri Lanka, China or Myanmmar?”
Flipping that question on its head:
“Why for example promote boycotts of Russia and China, but not Cambodia, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Israel or various right wing Juntas that infect Latino America from time to time?
Surely a measure of our believability, our inherent creditability, on ‘values’ is how we apply the standards we seek to impose on potential enemies on ourselves and our allies?
The fact that the west (ie. America and its sidekicks) demonstrates no consistency indicates plainly to this little black duck, that the ‘values’ argument is 100% pure bullshit. In truth mere rhetorical devices to disguise the real agenda – western (ie. American) power, prestige and frankly wealth hoarding.
Firefox says:
Saturday, February 19, 2022 at 10:36 am
Boer is accused of racism by his political critic. In this respect, Boer is a recipient of the same treatment as is directed at Labor by the Greens, who for their own political purposes accuse their hated political enemy, Labor, of racism.
The Greens are quite willing to use fears of racism and homophobia to assail Labor. In this respect – in their use of fear – the Greens are Q-like. They are mini-Morrisons.
This is not good news for inhibiting the epidemic.
————————
What does it mean for hospitals? Live with the virus but coping? Lots of death in the vulnerable but people arent dying in hospital corridors (or outside)? Or is the worry that the news means variants will continue to emerge?
And what of combined 3 dose plus infection? With Omicron so contagious and less restrictions and more movement, what will it mean for the epidemic when larger numbers of people with 3 doses also catch the virus?
Confessions says:
Saturday, February 19, 2022 at 10:38 am
“I never thought I’d say this because I viewed RDN as a disastrous leader for them, but instead of the Trot Bandt, I wonder how the more centrist RDN leading the Greens would fare in holding their vote in those key seats where the Teals are competitive.”
I think that RDN was a failed attempt of the Greens to swing to the “relative right”, Bandt is a failed attempt to swing to the “socialist left”. In my view, there is only one way forward for them in order to retain some relative power, in the Senate: Return to their environmental specialisation and go where no Teal would. The Greens have rightly gained a place in history with the expansion of the traditional Social Democratic Double-Bottomline (focus on the Economy and Social Justice) to the Triple-Bottomline (add Environmental Sustainability), they should simply consolidate the Environmental Sustainability direction, rather than dilute themselves into areas where they cannot possibly compete with the ALP.
Anyway, that’s up to them….
C@
I didn’t actually say that nobody lives in the CBD. (Know a couple of people who do…)
I use qualifiers for a reason.
The ones I know don’t work there. They’re retirees.
Steve777 says:
Saturday, February 19, 2022 at 10:42 am
It remains to be seen how long can Labor maintain a 55-45 lead. Labor needs to have counter-strategies ready to go now
The “lead” is not 55/45. The assignment of prefs is a projection from the past. The indicated score is more like 40/35 or 39/34 or 41/36. There’s about 5 points in it, PV-wise. Can this be wound in by the scum? Yup. They’re trying to do it every day in social media. Can they get to 36/36 or 37/37. Almost certainly.
RE: Morrison neatly avoided any public debate about the nuclear submarine decision…
I presumed the idea was dropping a huge ‘wedge’ on to Labor out of no-where (the nuclear wedge) …… of course Labor didn’t bite.
As for Patterson saying if your a 6 and a 10 starts taking interest in you watch out….was about the most sensible (and practical) thing the Libs have said in 10 years!
Surely Speers could find a more suitable guest than the precocious Senator Paterson, who will most likely agree that Morrison’s right re. his attack on
Albanese & Marles, bearing in mind he was denied entry into China.
C@tmomma @ #592 Saturday, February 19th, 2022 – 10:41 am
Greens have no hope of gaining Kooyong & Higgins and would be wise to assist the teal voices with high preference advice.
Alpo says:
Saturday, February 19, 2022 at 10:55 am
The Greens have rightly gained a place in history with the expansion of the traditional Social Democratic Double-Bottomline (focus on the Economy and Social Justice) to the Triple-Bottomline (add Environmental Sustainability)
Bollocks. The Greens have debauched the historic reformist plurality. They have not expanded anything other than the sinecures they occupy.
On the good news front, it has been a good season. I sat out in the courtyard yesterday evening and counted 5 species of native bird within 4 metres of me over the course of drinking one beer. Others were there earlier and so many more further in the distance. And early this morning, in the same area, I saw an as yet unidentified native bird. Cant find my Pizzey and Doyle so ID will have to wait until tomorrow morning same time.
The big news is that the treecreeper is back. YAY! Something to keep the borer investations under some control. The sad news is that we still havent heard the boobook for some time. I fear that with the good season comes rats and mice and with rats and mice comes poison. It is a disgrace of government and retail that the bad poison is still available for sale in this country when there are equally effective yet less damaging to wildlife options.
Torchbearer @ #608 Saturday, February 19th, 2022 – 10:57 am
If the Libs have any sense, they will gag ScoMo, tie him up and hide him in a dungeon somewhere until the election is over. But I don’t think they possess too many brain cells amongst the lot of them. From here on in I expect the shelves to be empty of popcorn…
”Andrew_Earlwood says:
Saturday, February 19, 2022 at 10:52 am
@ Boer:
“ Why for example, promote boycotts of Israel but not of, say, Russia, Sri Lanka, China or Myanmmar?”
Flipping that question on its head:
“Why for example promote boycotts of Russia and China, but not Cambodia, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Israel or various right wing Juntas that infect Latino America from time to time?
Surely a measure of our believability, our inherent creditability, on ‘values’ is how we apply the standards we seek to impose on potential enemies on ourselves and our allies?
The fact that the west (ie. America and its sidekicks) demonstrates no consistency indicates plainly to this little black duck, that the ‘values’ argument is 100% pure bullshit. In truth mere rhetorical devices to disguise the real agenda – western (ie. American) power, prestige and frankly wealth hoarding.’
—————————————
I agree that state level boycotts (and boycott busters such as the Turkish attempt to run supplies into Gaza using a flotilla of boats) are usually power plays rather than values statements. I agree with the premise of your rhetorical question.
In terms of boycotts, my comment was directed not at states but more specifically at rumps within parties.
FWIW I am in my home being bombarded by car-borne loud speaker messages from the Anti Vaxxers.
The reason I am at home is that I have just returned home, having narrowly dodged the Commonwealth Bridge shut-down by the anti-vaxxers. I was on my way to carry out a volunterr albeit smallish task of social good.
I now need to walk into town to make a purchase. Do I want to run a gauntlet of the Ignoranti?
The neighbourhood dogs are barking.
“Greens have no hope of gaining Kooyong & Higgins and would be wise to assist the teal voices with high preference advice.”
***
There is no Teal running in Higgins, not that I can find anyway. If there is one their campaign isn’t making much noise at all.
The Greens are the real threat to the Liberals in Higgins. Labor’s candidate there has had some issues too according to some.
For what it’s worth…
SK
Nice post, IMO.
‘Morrison is an absolute moron’ exhibit 234,348:
https://twitter.com/kailaswild/status/1494828271514845185?s=20&t=16k67nPRaj5W25l0p8bGlQ
rhwombat,
Thanks for the mention of “The dawn of everything” a few weeks back.
I’m listening to the audiobook and finding it interesting, although some of the argument flies past too quickly and I think I’ll need to read in print. I’ve been well aware of role ideas about “state of nature” played in formation of political ideologies but the book really fleshes out the development, and transformation of those ideas – at least in the part I’ve read so far. The idea of an “indigenous critique” of western society reaching Europe via the Jesuit reports is something new to me.
Boerwar @ #587 Saturday, February 19th, 2022 – 7:35 am
Did you not see the recent Amnesty International report.
Morrison was asked a question and commented on it where he basically dismissed it as an issue.
That is why Israel is being discussed at the moment.
I’ll link it again.
https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2022/02/israels-apartheid-against-palestinians-a-cruel-system-of-domination-and-a-crime-against-humanity/
One reading from the articles in the SMH & Guardian the last few weeks is that the Liberal Party is a faction riddled rabble, moderates, hard right, left , soft Centre etc.
That Alex Hawke seem to feature so heavily is interesting
None of this would be happening now but for Scotties ineptness.
Mavis @ #609 Saturday, February 19th, 2022 – 7:58 am
They probably asked for Payne, but as Foreign Minister she wouldn’t be able to dog whistle as blatantly as someone like Patterson.
Sorry Ff, I was thinking of Goldstein, not Higgins. My bad.
Tom @ #613 Saturday, February 19th, 2022 – 8:05 am
But that would just expose others within the Government that they have been so eager to hide in the last two election campaigns.
From this morning’s SMH editorial:
Something that needs to be put to bed about The Manchurian Candidate: the “Manchurian” candidate was not the brainwashed assassin Raymond Shaw (played by Laurence Harvey), but his stepfather, the hapless demagogue Senator John Iselin (James Gregory), under the traitorous influence of his wife and Shaw’s mother, Elanor (Anglea Lansbury).
The key point of the film is that the “Manchurian” candidate is from the Right wing of politics, not the Left.
The Right wing is, of course, historically where most traitors come from. The Cambridge spies are a perfect example of this. Being from the Right wing gives a spy or agent of influence the perfect cover, as firstly “chaps like them” are regarded as being automatically beyond reproach in their loyalty, and secondly the Right wing of politics, aling with the money, media and influence machine behind it, supplies most of the governments we have the misfortune to suffer.
Why corrupt a small-time trades unionist when you can saddle-up a Conservative or Liberal Party minister (or maybe even Prime Minister?) from a long-serving government, in charge of Defence or Trade policy, or even the entire country to your cause? It makes sense from all angles.
Exhibit #1: Alexander Downer.
Exhibit #2: Andrew Robb.
Exhibit #3: Malcolm Fraser (his presence on the list is my particular suspicion, but is an argument for another day).
Suffice it to say that, compared to the potential of the Right Wing side of politics, a gullible Lefty minnow like “Shanghai” Sam Dastyari would not have bern much more than a precautionary measure, there mostly as an each-way bet to cover bases.
If there is a real “Manchurian Candidate” in Australian politics you can bet your bottom taxpayer dollar that he or she is sitting on the Coalition government benches either right now, or was until fairly recently. The Morrison revamp of the old “Yellow Peril” bogey is just a smoke screen, about as convincing as that other, 20o4 version of the Manchurian Candidate, the one everyone has pretty-much forgotten, as Morrison soon will be.
Firefox
Just more of the same, Greens dreaming, Greens smearing the Labor candidate, all in the name of a few votes for theGreens and in the result helping the Liberals
Higgins last election
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_results_for_the_Division_of_Higgins
I wonder why the Greens leadership have issues with the Labor candidate.
Too Educated?
Too capable?
https://www.alp.org.au/our-people/our-people/dr-michelle-ananda-rajah/
https://research.monash.edu/en/persons/michelle-ananda-rajah
OK – I see it’s time for the weekly doom session.
Do people really think the Tories aren’t going to campaign?
They’ve got nothing except trying to make Albanese high-risk. It could be seen a mile away. Labor has to be balanced – responding too strongly risks reinforcing the messaging.
Ftr – I think Labor’s smartest pivot in terms of Albo’s world view is his working class background and wanting to improve opportunities for everyone. Then contrast.
“Sorry Ff, I was thinking of Goldstein, not Higgins. My bad.”
***
All good mate. The Teals are more than welcome to take Goldstein. The more “blue ribbon” Liberal that fall the better.
I like their chances of pulling it off after checking the odds too…
If the bookies are on the money it’s in play alright.
I think your response at 08:51 is only partly right Boar. I think there are two reasons the Israelies don’t get critisised enough for implementing aparthied like policies.
One is that some wealthy Jewish people donate to conservative political outfits whose morals are easily bought. The other is that right wing christian loons think that the second coming of Jesus Christ will occur in the holy land, so they don’t want any other religious loons getting in the way. Think Morrison’s mate Brother Stewie who takes people there to dunk them in the Jordan River. These people also think that the second coming will be recognised by the jews as the first coming. Presumably that will make the jews into christians and providing they adopt the pentecostal variety they will then be one great big happy family ready for the rapture.
In other words, Israel gets away with it mostly due to complete and utter stupidity with a lot of money thrown in for good measure.
Bet responsibly. Plonk the lot on Zoe Daniel in Goldstein. Tim Wilson is gawn.
Nice to see a dose of realism from the Greens.
Only a couple of days ago we were being told that 10 seats were in play. Now it’s been reduced to 8.
At this rate, by election night, the Greens will have reduced the list to…one?
Firefox
You miss the point. It’s not about direct competition.
One of the reasons Greens run in all seats (and why Labor does) is to maximise the flow of votes to the Senate.
If there’s a drop in the 142 seats the Greens aren’t targeting because voters are going Teal instead, this MAY mean a drop in the Senate vote.
Using Indi as an example (we don’t have many) the Orange People did issue HtVs. They basically said ‘vote 1 Helen’ and nothing else but they MAY this time around also recommend a Senate vote. If they do, the Greens MAY lose votes in Senate. (We don’t know as yet).
*I hope the qualifiers are obvious enough this time around!
FoxxLove
“If the bookies are on the money it’s in play alright.”
You lost me at “If “
“Shanghai Sam’s” sins were to ape the established positions – both in terms of party finances and various policy positions- that were the orthodox positions of most coalition politicians of that era.
The ‘exposure’ of Dastyari and subsequent LNP – SMH pile on were textbook examples of pure humbug and rank hypocrisy.
What was missed – of course – was that Sam was pulled into line by Marles regarding policy and then disciplined by Shorten. All at the same time that ScoMo was signing off on the Port of Darwin deal and still promoting the Abbott-Xi Security Partnership.
Good morning all
I’d just like to express my hope that the current trend towards home-based working for white collar workers will fade away somewhat over time.
I think one of the most concerning things about the contemporary world is the ever-diminishing level of casual face to face interactions among urban residents: thanks to the internet, smart phones, headphones/earbuds, home shopping, Netflix, COVID restrictions, etc, etc. For me, home-based work is just another step in that undesirable direction.
Going out into the world most days, even if it’s only to an airconditioned office in a CBD, brings one into contact with lots of different types of people. It also develops useful social survival skills such as maintaining eye contact, listening carefully to what other people have to say, compromising, defusing conflict, etc, etc.
I worry that middle class people in Western countries are heading towards rather isolated and vulnerable futures, in which they are increasingly confined to their comfortable homes and are dependent on external services (often provided by non-Western migrants) for just about everything they need: shopping, cooking, reading material and other entertainment, etc, etc. They will only have to encounter people with whom they feel comfortable and opinions with which they fully agree, being able to block out any interactions with people who see the world differently to them.
I would emphasise that this is something affecting middle-class people. The ever-growing workforce in the service sector have limited opportunities to work from home and often insufficient income to have everything they need delivered to them.
Anyway, just my view, FWIW.
“You miss the point. It’s not about direct competition.
One of the reasons Greens run in all seats (and why Labor does) is to maximise the flow of votes to the Senate.
If there’s a drop in the 142 seats the Greens aren’t targeting because voters are going Teal instead, this MAY mean a drop in the Senate vote.
Using Indi as an example (we don’t have many) the Orange People did issue HtVs. They basically said ‘vote 1 Helen’ and nothing else but they MAY this time around also recommend a Senate vote. If they do, the Greens MAY lose votes in Senate. (We don’t know as yet).”
***
Past electoral history does not seem to support your theory…
Consider the example of Warringah, the affluent Sydney seat formerly held for the Liberals by Tony Abbott.
At the 2016 election, the Greens candidate, Clara Williams Roldan, won 12.2 per cent of first preference votes, just behind Labor on 14.8 per cent and an independent candidate, James Mathison, a former television host whose campaign also focused on the Greens’ big issues of climate change and same-sex marriage, on 11.4.
…
As Abbott’s stocks continued to decline among the electors of Warringah over the subsequent three years, the Greens had high hopes for the 2019 election.
But they were dashed. Their vote crashed to a little over 6 per cent, and an independent candidate, Zali Steggall, won convincingly, simply by attaching her considerable profile in Warringah to a small subset of issues the Greens have championed for years or decades: climate change, the treatment of women, greater integrity in government.
…
It was a similar story in another of the Liberals’ blue-ribbon seats, Wentworth, long held by Malcolm Turnbull.
Turnbull was a liberal moderate, not a reactionary like Abbott, but, even so, across three elections from 2010 to 2016, the Greens averaged more than 15 per cent of the vote, just a few points behind Labor.
…
But here’s the interesting thing. Even as the Greens’ share of the vote for those two lower house seats tanked, the party’s senate vote went up, as numbers provided by Antony Green show.
In Warringah in 2016, they won 12.8 per cent of the senate vote. In 2019, it was 15.7. In Wentworth, it went up from 14.4 to 16.3.
For this reason, says the Greens strategist, they see the climate independents movement as, on balance, a positive thing.
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2022/02/19/greens-reveal-their-target-seats/164518920013357#mtr
Teals winning in blue ribbon Liberal areas doesn’t hurt the Greens’ Senate vote.
SK
Nice post, IMO.
——————
Thanks BW. I have to enjoy the good seasons. Most of the candlebark seedlings are coming along well although when they get above 2m I cant squash the borers and some of them are suffering even with the good rains. And I have planted heavily around the house, both native and non-native, to attract the native birds. It is good to see the fruits.
Most interestingly, I have quite a few self seeded stringy bark and blackwood trees around the house that I prune the tops off to stop them getting scary big (and stop them shading my panels). They cope well with this and compliment the other plants. Birds like to graze down in the bushed and then scope up high to tell everyone who they are. Then back down. And boy, they love to shower when I water.
Firefox @ #635 Saturday, February 19th, 2022 – 8:52 am
But that’s without teal Senate candidates.
Throw that into the mix and you would have a different game.
“Only a couple of days ago we were being told that 10 seats were in play. Now it’s been reduced to 8.”
***
Nice spin on what was a positive story about the Greens too BTW. Cooper and Wills are certainly still in play, they’re just more likely to fall next time around. You have to remember that in Cooper especially we have a lot of ground to make up after we botched the by-election there years ago. It looks like we will make that up and then some and it will become a real contest once again. Considering how popular she is and how well she’s campaigning, I certainly wouldn’t rule out Celeste Liddle winning it this time at all. She’s an exceptionally good candidate.
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #637 Saturday, February 19th, 2022 – 11:57 am
Did somebody holler for a Senate VOICE
https://independentvoices4senate.org/
“But that’s without teal Senate candidates.
Throw that into the mix and you would have a different game.”
***
Not really. It will be very difficult for independents to win election to the Senate, even if they were to get high votes in a handful of seats, which history shows is unlikely anyway. The Greens run and campaign in all 151 seats. As well as that, our Senators and Senate candidates continue to campaign state and territory wide, regardless of what is happening in individual electorates in the House of Reps.
“First medRxiv preprint on efficacy of 4th dose of Pfizer & Moderna against Omicron in Israeli HCW cohort. Summary: 4th dose does raise Ab levels, but does not seem to diminish from “mild” disease or viral shedding with Omicron. This is not good news for inhibiting the epidemic.
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2022.02.15.22270948”
Ta rhwombat. I dont claim any particular background in epidemiology, but seems to me that while Omicron is a variant of Covid its maybe mutated far enough away from the strains the vaccine was built for that current vaccines have less utility. My hope is that the tools developed earlier in the pandemic will mean we get the updated vaccines we are going to need to live with covid as an endemic disease sooner.
Still would like to see if the UQ molecular clamp vaccine comes out. Looks to me like that platform could be useful for rapid response new vaccine development. You got any opinions on that one??
Barney in Tanjung Bunga:
Saturday, February 19, 2022 at 11:27 am
Mavis @ #609 Saturday, February 19th, 2022 – 7:58 am
Surely Speers could find a more suitable guest than the precocious Senator Paterson, who will most likely agree that Morrison’s right re. his attack on
Albanese & Marles, bearing in mind he was denied entry into China.
[‘They probably asked for Payne, but as Foreign Minister she wouldn’t be able to dog whistle as blatantly as someone like Patterson.’]
Most likely. I wonder if sales of “The Manchurian Candidate” have hit the roof?
@mb – I’m not finding myself agreeing with you all that much of late, but I TOTALLY agree.
WFH to support flexibility is fine, I certainly use it from time to time, but the consequences are also real. Lack of spontaneous communication, personal disconnection – I said to my own staff it was important they made an effort to come to office, if they felt comfortable, to get to know the new senior manager who had come on during the ACT lockdown.
rhwombat and imacca
You both seem to have medical backgrounds.
You might help me in my search for a satisfactory solution.
I have chronic fatigue syndrome.
After my second Pfizer last year, I experience significant worsening of fatigue for 2 months. I am not keen to repeat that experience.
Is there any accessible research that might help me select a booster that minimises likely fatigue impact on me?
To me, it looks like James is widening the gap on first preferences
https://results.elections.nsw.gov.au/SB2201/Willoughby/Parliamentary/FirstPreferencesReport.html
‘Barney in Tanjung Bunga says:
Saturday, February 19, 2022 at 11:23 am
Boerwar @ #587 Saturday, February 19th, 2022 – 7:35 am
…
Why for example, promote boycotts of Israel but not of, say, Russia, Sri Lanka, China or Myanmmar?
Did you not see the recent Amnesty International report.
Morrison was asked a question and commented on it where he basically dismissed it as an issue.
That is why Israel is being discussed at the moment.
I’ll link it again.
https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2022/02/israels-apartheid-against-palestinians-a-cruel-system-of-domination-and-a-crime-against-humanity/‘
————————————-
Thank you. My general discussion was not about specific criticisms on specific occasions but an in principle approach.
MB
I totally agree with your post. I’m exhausted from working at home. It is vety difficult to separate home / work balance.
My colleagues feel the same and are wanting to reconnect… to talk to people F2F rather than thorough Zoom, etc.
I’ve returned to the office … I feel better for it … walking to and from the station, conversing with people in the street, etc. and being able to properly switch off at the end of the day.
A friend of mind who has WFH since March 2020 has been informed that his department will now be ‘off shored’ as it is cheaper.
The response from HR … wtte… if it can be done from home… it can be done anywhere.
15 staff will be out of work in a month, the Melbourne office shut down and moved to Brisbane and rest of positions sent to Indonesia and NZ.
We inherantly are social animals and need that interaction.
For those advocates of ‘Nah! Never going back to the office’ be very careful what you wish for.
The Greens vote is roughly 10% and has been there for about a decade.
The latest Newspoll showed a drop of about 2% as the Greens buckle under competition from the Teals and other moderate independent progressives canvassing for votes in the same space.
In Willoughby, the Greens record 12% and are humiliated by an Independent running a very modestly funded campaign.
The signs are everywhere that the Greens are adrift. However we are bombarded by the fantasies of zealots associated with the Greens that they are ready to capture up to 10 seats.
They’ll most likely lose Melbourne. But, I’m sure the usual fruitcakes will present that as a wonderful victory and all part of the masterplan to dominate Australian Politics.
I find the idea people are so happy to blur the lines between home and work utterly bonkers… I need the separation.
It’s not a binary choice – go back to the office full time or never going to the office again.
There are some options in between!
But if, for example, your job is giving quotes over the phone, it doesn’t matter where the phone is.