No further national voting intention polls this week after the weekend Newspoll. Presumably this means the monthly Resolve Strategic will be along next week in the Age/Herald. Roy Morgan has for some time come along fortnightly and did not report last week, but the manner of its reporting is notoriously hard to predict. Together with the ongoing New South Wales by-elections count, which is covered in the post below this one, that just leaves the following:
• Roy Morgan did have an SMS poll of 1080 respondents conducted on Monday and Tuesday which found Josh Frydenberg favoured to lead the Coalition by 38.5%, ahead of Scott Morrison on 31% and Peter Dutton on 12.5%. The question specifically asked, “if you were a Liberal or National Party voter and helping to choose the Coalition Leader for the next Federal Election, who would you prefer”.
• The West Australian had a poll by Painted Dog Research on Wednesday which found Mark McGowan’s approval rating in Western Australia had fallen from 77% to 64% since December, having peaked at 91% in September 2020, with disapproval up from 14% to 25%. The poll was conducted Friday to Tuesday from a sample of 654.
• Recommended viewing and listening: Antony Green explains the dark art of election night results projection, while pollsters Peter Lewis and John Utting discuss the even darker art of opinion polling on 2SER’s Fourth Estate program.
Baird or earlier brought in the changes in licensing laws following pretty dreadful late night violence.
The Sydney CBD is just not user friendly except on the fringes. Melbourne is much better so too Adelaide especially from North Terrace and north.
Love Hobart too although more by the water.
Murdoch’s Oz political coverage is rather downbeat for the Liberals this morning, as evidenced by this piece
Soc,
It always is about ‘God’s Chosen One’, ie Scott Morrison, but now he is not gaining from the unity in the ranks to propel him to another ‘miracle’ victory that he craves as validation for the first, in the mould of his political heroes, Howard and Menzies. They kept on winning, election after election, however, after only 3 years and a bit in the top job, Morrison has alienated not only the electorate as his approval numbers have dived, but his own party members and MPs, as they refuse to give him the candidates he wants and as the rumblings about replacing him gain momentum and volume in the federal ranks.
I actually want to see the election campaign begin so that I can gauge how tepid or otherwise support for him is as his election caravan rolls around the country, both from the electorate at large and his MPs.
Who is paying for the flood of anti Albanese ads on social media??
Just had a look at William’s excellent NSW by-election results pages.
Remember Domicron on election night crowing about how Labor’s vote had ‘gone backwards’ in Strathfield?
It has, by 1.7% on primaries. Trouble is, the Lieberals’ primary vote has now gone backwards by 1.8%.
My pastoral response (after years of ministry training and experience): HAHAHAHAHA…
Melbourne night life has been going very well despite the restrictions re dancing.
Dancing now back on the agenda.
Also the tennis, cricket, basketball and soccer are in full swing.
Also comedy events and exhibitions are occurring.
The whinging from the usual suspects is that they want people to return to offices for several reasons.
The cafes and restaurants need more patronage and the owners of office buildings want to ensure that their leases are not at risk going forward and values of their premises do not decline.
It’s all about the money.
Cos the actual workers want to continue working from home.
D @ #463 Saturday, February 19th, 2022 – 9:54 am
The Liberal Party. They and their large donors have done well from the pandemic.
What is labor’s campaign strategy this time.
Last time they were caught out with respect to Clive palmer and the death tax scare campaign.
I imagine a Labor campaign strategy meeting, agenda item 1…
‘What is the full range of bullshit the RWNJs could possibly make up about us?’
No further items, meaning it was as Bernard Woolley pointed out, an agendum.
Victoria
I’m not really that sure that building special social housing is such a good idea, and much of a long term plan.
There are now suburbs springing up like mushrooms. The Victorian government in my view have done a great job of putting in the infrastructure needed to make it happen.
We have had two years to catch up, and if immigration slows, in the future there must come a point where the construction meets demand. What then?
Are they trying to do with social housing to reduce construction cost? It is all pretty dam efficient, the houses are already being crammed in, I can’t see any big gains.
The only change I see is the landlord. Why does that matter? If it does why not just buy up some of the stuff being built?
A levy to cover the cost of providing the schools, rail, road, water, electrical and telecommunication infrastructure needed to service these new suburbs, that I could understand. A levy to build housing with a different landlord, that I can’t.
D
“Who is paying for the flood of anti Albanese ads on social media??”
Given the Liberal Party’s shameful past track record in not admitting to large donations till years later, we probably won’t find out for some time.
In light of Frydenberg’s embarrassed avoidance of answering where $1 million came from donated to his own fund, we may never find out unless the government changes and the law is enforced.
Have a good day all.
Sydney’s “fun killer” laws applied to the CBD and nearby entertainment precincts like Kings Cross and Darling Harbour. Pubs, clubs and bars had to observe a 1:30 AM lockout and 3:00 AM last drinks. That always seemed fairly liberal to me but they were the cause of bitter complaints. Must be lots of people looking for somewhere to buy a drink at 2:00 AM.
They were withdrawn (except for Kings Cross) just before the Pandemic hit, a year later for Kings Cross.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sydney_lockout_laws
Frednk
These contributions will also go towards replacing old bathrooms, kitchens, and other maintenance on existing public housing.
I think it is a good initiative
Different views to the Channel Noin ‘swinging voter’ focus groups opinions, that’s for sure. Sorry, that’s the ABC TV focus groups. Err.. same thing I guess.
Has lizzie been about?
Was at the theatre last night in Sydney after a meal in Chinatown and things were quite busy, especially the outdoor markets that lined the street. Good to get back to doing some of the nice things in life, mostly surrounded by mask-wearing people (except for the usual gaggle of old blokes with masses under their noses).
I think that CBDs need to be places of residence with a population that supports a wide range of retail, hospitality and other services but also serve as a base for business even on a reduced, hybrid model.
We stayed in a hotel where we could have zip-lined from our room to the front door of the theatre, we ate 2 minutes away in a bustling street. Yes, suburbs are where most live and they will visit the CBD if the type of lifestyle offered there is allowed to develop.
Anyone know what time couting will start In Willoughby?,,,,will results be added as they go or all at once?
That goes without saying
Media Analyst
Morrison says he couldn’t block the sale of the Port of Darwin in October 2015
But he blocked the sale of the Kidman property empire in November 2015
Despite the new laws he’s now saying he used to stop the Kidman sale only coming into effect in December 2015
He’s a liar. https://t.co/Qp2stdO9wF
Voters ‘sick’ of Labor, says new Greens candidate for Richmond
The new Greens candidate for the seat of Richmond is confident of capitalising on the retirement of a veteran Labor incumbent by highlighting the Andrews government’s record on climate change and housing policy.
Former Yarra City Council mayor and councillor Gabrielle de Vietri said voters in Richmond, which includes the suburbs of Fitzroy and Clifton Hill, were “sick” of the policies and political style of the Labor Party.
In her first interview since being preselected, the councillor said the Andrews government had carried out a series of “calculated attacks” on the Greens-majority Yarra City Council to dent the image of the party and thwart its progress in the inner-city.
Richmond MP, Planning Minister Richard Wynne, is retiring after 23 years in Parliament. Labor holds the seat by a 5 per cent margin and a party strategist not authorised to speak publicly said this margin could be narrowed by about 3 per cent due to Mr Wynne’s retirement.
“The people of Richmond are aligned with our values,” Cr de Vietri said. “No matter how progressive the Labor candidate will be here in Richmond, they aren’t going to shift the goalposts. They will be a backbencher and part of the big Labor machine, beholden to the party line.”
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/voters-sick-of-labor-says-new-greens-candidate-for-richmond-20220218-p59xl6.html
Socrates says:
…
We ran an interstate workshop with 20 participants last week on Teams.
..
Using teams and zoom all the time now.
International one two weeks ago, Belgium, USA and Australia. The delay in hand over to next speaker is noticeable, but it was absolutely brilliant. They used to take a week. There is no why anyone is going back to that pain.
Did a training course on teams last week. 40 participants. It was brilliant. They had the lecturer and two support staff. You typed in your questions. The support staff answered and passed the interesting ones onto the lecturer to add to his presentation. Worked brilliantly. I am not going back to on campus professional development.
Don’t like people who don’t turn on their video, visual is important.
Canberra’s CBD is certainly livelier than it was, say, ten years ago. Covid has slowed things but the place is returning to normal. On Sundays you could fire the proverbial gun on the street but don’t try that any day or night now. A huge number of apartments are going up and the proximity of the ANU with accommodation on the western edge of the CBD has brought restaurants and nightlife (hopefully recovering after Covid).
Firefox
I read abd linked to it above, brilliantly underlined the circle jerk Greens have become. If I was a Green supporter I am not sure I would be promoting it.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/voters-sick-of-labor-says-new-greens-candidate-for-richmond-20220218-p59xl6.html
Greens reveal their target seats
The Australian Greens are drawing up their election plans. They believe they are on track to win 12 senate seats and will also target eight, possibly 10, lower house seats.
…
First, six of its current senators are not up for re-election, due to the fact that upper house members serve six-year terms, twice as long as members of the lower house. So the Greens need only replicate their performance at the 2019 election in order to double their numbers and, quite possibly, hold the balance of power on their own.
…
The Greens will run candidates in all 150 house of representatives seats, but consider eight to be realistic possibilities. Four are currently held by the Coalition: the electorates of Ryan and Brisbane in Queensland, and Kooyong and Higgins in Victoria. Four are Labor: Griffith in Queensland, Macnamara in Victoria, Richmond in NSW and Canberra in the ACT.
Party polling suggests they are also performing well in two other Melbourne seats held by Labor – Cooper and Wills – but see them as more likely prospects at the election after this.
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2022/02/19/greens-reveal-their-target-seats/164518920013357#mtr
Victoria says:
Saturday, February 19, 2022 at 10:08 am
Frednk
These contributions will also go towards replacing old bathrooms, kitchens, and other maintenance on existing public housing.
I think it is a good initiative
Fair enough, but there does come a time when the cheapest option is to knock it down and start again.
I guess more polling will shed more light on this. But whichever way you slice and dice it, the Greens would have to be concerned about their stagnating if not going backwards, vote.
https://theconversation.com/a-bad-newspoll-for-the-greens-willoughby-nsw-byelection-could-be-close-177055
“Victoria says:
Saturday, February 19, 2022 at 9:57 am
What is labor’s campaign strategy this time.”
1) Offer better policies, available here: https://www.alp.org.au/
Click on “We stand for”
2) Remind the voters about the complete disaster of the Scomocchio government: 2019 bushfires, 2020-22 Covid pandemic.
3) Remind the voters about the disaster of the Scomocchio government in all other areas: Jobs, Salaries, Health, Education, Environment, Economy, Debt&Defict Disaster, True Unemployment, True and Escalating Costs of Living, Rorts, Dishonesty, Lies…. etc.
There is no “miracle” coming this time around to save Scomocchio, the Liar from the Shire. Quite on the contrary, he is leading the Coalition to a historical defeat… That, for sure, will be his only “legacy”!!
I helped organise, as a member of the Central Coast Council’s Status of Women Advisory Group a coastwide International Womens Day Forum this week which we are going to hold using Microsoft Teams. There’s going to be about 100 participants, it will be going for 3 hours, and we shall have 4 breakout rooms in which will be held discussions around 4 major themes for the day. Looks like it will be just as effective as a face to face forum to me. 🙂
Firefox
Every election we get a dose of the Greens dreaming, every election they try and wedge Labor to get more votes, every election it helps the Liberals, every election for the Greens it turns to dust.
They really should stop wasting their and everyone else’s time.
William, I know you prefer a pretty hands-off policy when it comes to moderation, but the constant and completely unwarranted allegations of racism that Zerlo keep directing at Boerwar and others must surely cross the line?
Dog’s Brunch:
Since coming to Sydney I’ve been living in the inner city. I love it. I’m sure I’ll love it more when things start coming back to normal and entertainment precincts like Chinatown regain a sense of normalcy.
I couldn’t live in the suburbs. I’m finding I’m a city girl at heart!
C@t:
I’m told our Labor branch meetings have had way more attendance since went online compared to when they were held in-person. That might change in the future, but for now I’m preferring the accessibility of the format.
“Confessionssays:
Saturday, February 19, 2022 at 10:23 am
I guess more polling will shed more light on this. But whichever way you slice and dice it, the Greens would have to be concerned about their stagnating if not going backwards, vote.”…
Yes, but first and above all let’s not forget that the Greens are fellow Progressives. The Libs/Nats/LNP are the ones to beat…. and beat them we will.
More dispassionately, this time around the Greens will have to compete with former Liberal Independents, especially in NSW and VIC. So it is possible that their primary vote will go slightly down. Usually, their current 10% is made up by 8% of solid left-wingers, plus 2% of environmentalist Liberal-lites who vote Greens mainly to upset Labor in some seats. The solid left-wingers will stay, of course, but the Liberal-lites will go to Independents.
I loved my commute to the Melbourne CBD when doing it on bike, if I took the train, I’d ride to the station and try to sleep/doze most times on the commute unless I saw a friendly face to have a chat with. I reckon my work will go down the path of having hubs for us to meet up at. The biggest thing missing with work at the moment are the whiteboard sessions where we could problem solve items or the project that you hear something about via gossip or the bosses phone conversations where you plough yourself into research to become the chosen expert…
Victoria @ #569 Saturday, February 19th, 2022 – 10:15 am
Maybe he means he couldn’t block the Port of Darwin sale because Andrew Robb wouldn’t have gotten his cushy sinecure with Landbridge (and doesn’t that name now have sinister overtones wrt China’s building into the sea) if he did?
Alpha Zero, Teacher’s Pet. 😀
‘Zerlo says:
Saturday, February 19, 2022 at 7:08 am
Granny Annysays:
Saturday, February 19, 2022 at 12:00 am
BW is just a full-on racist prick.’
——————————
I would like to thank other bludgers for the polite discussion around criticizing Israel and possible interpretations of anti-semitism. Of the two exceptions, one was tiny and the other was rabid. The tiny one was GA who keeps addressing me as ‘boar’. Long term bludgers would know that my choice of poster name is a comment on the eponymous war – a war with racist underpinnings and with no possible redeeming virtues.
Zerlo has been putting the case that my criticism of China is racist. I have been asked before why I single China’s state behaviours out for criticism so I will not repeat my case but I note in passing that I am conscious that singling China out for criticism could actually be based on racism.
Defending democracy in Taiwan must, in zerlo’s world, be a sign of inverted racism.
I note in passing that it is a historical fact that both Left and Right have at times engaged in anti-semitism. The latter must go beyond ideology. I am pleased that Starmer is not tolerating it in the British Labour Party.
I would also caution elements of the red centre of the watermelons in particular that they should exercise more due diligence in this space.
Why for example, promote boycotts of Israel but not of, say, Russia, Sri Lanka, China or Myanmmar?
“William, I know you prefer a pretty hands-off policy when it comes to moderation, but the constant and completely unwarranted allegations of racism that Zerlo keep directing at Boerwar and others must surely cross the line?”
***
Yeah I have to agree here. Comrade Boerski may be totally politically misguided and often goes on crazy rants about the Greens that have no basis in reality but I do not believe that he is a nasty or horrible person in the way that some others who share his political ideology are. He has never resorted to abusing others personally that I have seen in the way some other posters seem to feel the need to do on a daily basis.
Alpo:
Yes I think that’s the thing. The Greens have never had any real competition for their one supposed signature policy, climate change. Now they do in the form of cashed-up independents who are campaigning in key seats on doing more about AGW.
I never thought I’d say this because I viewed RDN as a disastrous leader for them, but instead of the Trot Bandt, I wonder how the more centrist RDN leading the Greens would fare in holding their vote in those key seats where the Teals are competitive.
@ Cat, re: SMH Editorial:
“ The Coalition (has) tried to smear ALP politicians for cultivating ties with China years ago, even though at the time both sides of politics saw working with China as vital to Australia’s interests.”
There is a strong line of ‘both sides’ running through 9/Faix publications this morning. This is a reinvention of history.
Putting aside the problems that Labor has with its Wolverine faction (witness KK’s unhelpful contribution in the senate this week, completely undermining Labor’s position that it is the Government, and the government alone that is politicising the China relationship form petty domestic political purposes) the fact remains that by and large Labor has remained tremendously consistent regarding China over the past five decades.
Without going into all the history of those five decades, we can nonetheless focus on the past 15 years to make the this point: The coalition have lurched from obsequiousness (and Rudd rightly calls that appeasement in many instances, as I outlined yesterday) to WAR!, missing the right mark at most times.
Labor on the other hand have largely stuck to the right policy framework: engagement with China by all means but also strengthening our defence posture (2009 White paper), reserving the right to speak up in defence of our values (2008 Rudd Speech in Beijing), strengthening our alliances but always seeking to use the multilateral institutions (APEC, G20, The East Asian Leaders Forum, the UN and its agencies etc) that Australia has help developed as the appropriate clearing houses to address specific problems as they inevitably arose as China seeks to re-establish primacy in East Asia and America seeks to either counter that, or at least balance it as a moderating force defending the Liberal order.
In truth, ‘bipartisanship’ started to erode under the lying rodent, and in the past 3-4 years the LNP have lurched from one extreme to the other.
Firefox says:
Saturday, February 19, 2022 at 10:15 am
Voters ‘sick’ of Labor
The Greens campaign for the re-election of the scum-of-the-earth LNP continues unabated.
The Greens truly are the sidekicks of the scum. What a great record in politics they have. They are cadet Reactioanries.
“C@tmommasays:
Saturday, February 19, 2022 at 9:55 am
D @ #463 Saturday, February 19th, 2022 – 9:54 am
Who is paying for the flood of anti Albanese ads on social media??
The Liberal Party. They and their large donors have done well from the pandemic.”
Whereas we, the People, are mainly behind donations to the ALP. I have just donated a small amount for the campaign to unseat Dutton in Dickson… polls are unbelievably close.
frednk @ #579 Saturday, February 19th, 2022 – 10:27 am
This is truly risible:
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2022/02/19/greens-reveal-their-target-seats/164518920013357
First medRxiv preprint on efficacy of 4th dose of Pfizer & Moderna against Omicron in Israeli HCW cohort. Summary: 4th dose does raise Ab levels, but does not seem to diminish from “mild” disease or viral shedding with Omicron. This is not good news for inhibiting the epidemic.
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2022.02.15.22270948
Alpo @ #592 Saturday, February 19th, 2022 – 10:40 am
I did too, Alpo! Only a tenner but it all helps Ali France to unseat the loathsome Dutton.
”If the Greens lost support to Labor, why isn’t Labor up? It’s possible Labor lost support to the Coalition, but the Coalition lost ground to vaccine-sceptical others like Clive Palmer’s UAP.”
The latest Newspoll (55-45) shows Labor’s primary on 41, which is way up. Labour has been languishing in the mid 30s or less primary vote for much of the time since 2013. As to changes from the previous Newspoll (56-44), that could well be mainly statistical noise.
Labor really needs a thumping win. The scares, lies, taxpayer-funded propaganda and disinformation campaigns are just getting into gear. The cash splash on favoured electorates and demographics hasn’t yet started. It remains to be seen how long can Labor maintain a 55-45 lead. Labor needs to have counter-strategies ready to go now
UK Cartoons:
Dave Brown after Delacroix:
Eugene Delacroix Liberty Leading the People:
“Yes I think that’s the thing. The Greens have never had any real competition for their one supposed signature policy, climate change. Now they do in the form of cashed-up independents who are campaigning in key seats on doing more about AGW.”
***
This is not the case. The only seat that the Greens and Teals are both targeting is Kooyong. With that exception where we will preference them anyway, we are not really in direct competition with them in any other seats.
…they [the Greens] see the climate independents movement as, on balance, a positive thing.
“We want to see the Liberals turfed out and if they can contribute by knocking off two or three Liberal seats, that’s great,” he says.
“And, more importantly for us, they elevate the climate issue at the election. The more climate is talked about, the better that will be for us electorally.
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2022/02/19/greens-reveal-their-target-seats/164518920013357#mtr
rhwombat,
Any news on the new Variant front? Other than Omicron Ba-2?
In todays instalment of Here’s what Hack Katich Thinks;
Biden let it slip a few weeks ago. Russia can invade parts of Ukraine without military intervention from the West (although other reprisals will be forthcoming). But go beyond that and Russian troops in Ukraine are fair game. Putin may think that inching closer to Kiev and maintaining troops there will be enough to pressure the rest of Ukraine and others to rethink shifting allegiances. He will also know that in war the rules break down, lines of demarcation blur and things change fast – the Wests appetite for conflict may be decided for them by obfuscation, hesitation and extended deliberation.
I hope the US etc have war gamed this to the ⁿth and their reactions are precise and, if not preordained, rapidly finalised (be they bull or dove).
Putin will be enjoying the uncertainty and energy and distraction the current situation is causing. He may just continue stirring the pot with patience and guile.