Preselection developments

A major Labor preselection resolved, plus a few slightly less major ones.

The big news at the moment is of course yesterday’s New South Wales state by-elections, where you can continue to follow the count here. On the polling front, there may be a Resolve Strategic result this week and presumably a Roy Morgan – Newspoll isn’t due, unless The Australian has decided to quicken the schedule with an election in view. That leaves the following preselection news:

• Alison Byrnes, staffer to Sharon Bird, will succeed Bird as Labor’s member for the safe Illawarra seat of Cunningham after the withdrawal of Misha Zelinsky, Australian Workers Union assistant national secretary and former criminal defence lawyer. Rob Harris of the Age/Herald reports it had “become clear in recent days he would not have enough support among branch members”, his prospects having been harmed by the emergence of past online activities in which he made comments denigrating women.

• Some new Labor candidates for unlikely-but-not-impossible seats: Amanda Hunt, chief executive of Uniting WA, will run against Andrew Hastie in the Perth fringe seat of Canning; Naomi Oakley, former police officer and owner of a private security firm, will run in the eastern Melbourne seat of Menzies, where Keith Wolahan will succeed Kevin Andrews as Liberal candidate; and Sonja Baram, a family therapist, will run against James Stevens in the eastern Adelaide seat of Sturt.

• Recently announced independents of note: Kate Chaney, Anglicare WA director of innovation and strategy and member of a family of local Liberal Party and business notables, will run against Celia Hammond in the blue-ribbon Perth seat of Curtin; and Craig Garland, a local fishing identity who made a minor splash in the seat at the by-election in 2018, will again run in the north-western Tasmanian seat of Braddon.

• It was reported this week that ASIO had rumbled an effort by Chinese spies to financially support “sympathetic and vulnerable” candidates for Labor preselection in New South Wales. Anthony Galloway of the Age/Herald reports the agency is satisfied no candidates of concern were endorsed, but that it remains concerned about the ongoing activities of “a wealthy businessman with deep ties in both Australia and China, who was known to ASIO as ‘the puppeteer’”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

406 comments on “Preselection developments”

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  1. https://theglobalherald.com/news/central-government-sends-medical-teams-to-hong-kong/

    China’s Hong Kong Special Administrative Region is battling a surge in COVID-19 cases, which medical experts said was fueled by Spring Festival gatherings. Hong Kong registered 1,514 new cases of COVID-19 over the past 24 hours, according to data from the Center for Health Protection on Saturday. The Chinese central government is sending medical teams to help.

    —————————-

    This is why you don’t have open season during a pandemic.

  2. It is all very clear. Firefox, Taylormade, Steelydan and Nostradamus are the same person.

    Just look at the pattern of the posts.

  5. So Littleproud has COVID. Would be interesting to see if it’s been doing the numbers in the party room. Would be funny if the monkey pod lacked the numbers for a spill because of COVID over the next week or so.

  6. Re Firefox @7:13. ”On the other hand, if you want to kick the Liberals out and get serious action to address the climate emergency, vote Greens.”

    If you must, but be sure to preference Labor above the Coalition candidate and his/her fellow travellers (One Nation, etc). In the NSW election next year, don’t let your preferences exhaust otherwise your vote will help the Coalition, just as Ralph Nader voters helped George W Bush in 2000.

  7. ‘Zerlo says:
    Sunday, February 13, 2022 at 7:15 pm

    https://theglobalherald.com/news/central-government-sends-medical-teams-to-hong-kong/

    China’s Hong Kong Special Administrative Region is battling a surge in COVID-19 cases, which medical experts said was fueled by Spring Festival gatherings. Hong Kong registered 1,514 new cases of COVID-19 over the past 24 hours, according to data from the Center for Health Protection on Saturday. The Chinese central government is sending medical teams to help.

    —————————-

    This is why you don’t have open season during a pandemic.’
    =================================
    Open season upon whom?

  10. Re alfred venison at 3.46 pm and Simon Katich at 5.05 pm on using diplomacy to avert war in Ukraine

    Dynkin is a very serious Russian economist who was Director of the main Foreign Affairs Institute in Moscow. He was a visiting professor at Georgetown University in Washington DC in 1994 and 1996, when the Clinton plan for expanding NATO eastward in breach of promises to Gorbachev was hatched.

    Here is a link to an article by Dynkin and a colleague in a leading UK establishment journal in 2016:

    https://sci-hub.ee/10.1080/00396338.2016.1142140#

    The proposal by Dynkin and Graham is a serious attempt to avert a destructive war over Ukraine. It should not be scorned. In the article linked above Dynkin criticises Russian policy as well as Western policies and the chronic failures of the Ukrainian elites.

    A sensible Australian commentary broadly in line with the Dynkin/Graham proposal is available at:

    https://johnmenadue.com/putin-and-ukraine-the-beginning-of-a-wider-war/

    An obstacle to successful diplomacy is that Biden has strongly promoted NATO’s eastward expansion since the 1990s. Despite his age, he may not be mature enough to accept now that policy was wrong.

  14. Sceptic says:
    Sunday, February 13, 2022 at 3:17 pm
    alfred venison says:
    Sunday, February 13, 2022 at 2:34 pm
    Thanks… I’m now lost in your avatar link
    Cheers
    —
    bon voyage Sceptic, i was lost for weeks in ubuweb when i first discovered it. among its many treasures are robert hughes’ “the shock of the new” & john berger’s “ways of seeing”. and many more blasts from the (recent) past. all legal, legit. -a.v.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Shock_of_the_New

    https://ubu.com/film/hughes.html

    https://ubu.com/film/berger_seeing.html

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ways_of_Seeing

  16. You know Boer, i reckon that is quite possible to cut defence spending back to about 1.5% of GNP without the ADF being turned into a ‘peace studies’ basket case that you accuse the Greens of wanting to do.

    it would involve some acceptance of risk – namely that we are not going to get involved in a kinetic war with either the ChiComms or any other larger than us power in the next 30-50 years. In my view, abandoning the pretence of being America’s South Pacific chihuahua and investing heavily in diplomacy, multilateral institutions and a 0.7% of GNP foreign aid budget very probably makes that a reasonable level of risk to take.

    It would mean that we don’t get involved – or even intimate that we would get involved – in a kinetic war in the northern pacific or east Asia. It would mean removing American marines from the NT, and terminating the joint comms bases (as a consequence that would probably see us kicked out of the Five eyes, however I note that even NZ is still allowed to play in that little anglo club).

    It would mean limiting our ambition in three key budgetary sinkholes – cancelling the Hunter class (but building another 6-9 Hobarts), not proceeding with any AUKUS nuclear subs (or even reverting back to the Attack class as the total costs of that programme were a quarter of a trillion dollars over 70 odd years) and any foregoing any Lockheed Martin style missile defence system. It would also see us have to curtail the number of long range strike missiles that are currently on the menu.

    But other than those big items, some savvy investments and costs savings could easily see us squeeze a very effective ADF in for about 1.5% of GNP.

    If we were prepared to take an even bigger gamble then the Greens 1% of GNP budget would be possible.

    For example, cutting our in service number of JSFs to 36, but otherwise maintaining the overall RAAF composition (plus investing heavily in autonomous drones) would certainly still deliver some effective bang for buck. And so on.

    Neither of the above reflect not my preferred option (which is to strike out more independently and invest more heavily in defence spending), but frankly on this issue the greens are light years ahead of your bellicose call to arms.

  17. Boerwar says:
    Sunday, February 13, 2022 at 7:25 pm

    I’m referring to the fact Western countries open season duck hunting during a Pandemic a legally free for all killing season

  19. I cannot believe Fiona Kotvojs still hasn’t conceded. I know refusing to concede is all the rage for conservatives these days, but I don’t think I’ve ever seen it happen during a thrashing like this before. She’s just embarassing herself.

  20. The facts on the ground in relation to Xi and Putin are as follows.

    Neither is accountable to their home populations.
    Either could start a war at any minute.
    Both are ruthless when it comes to crushing internal dissent.
    Both are expanding their borders.
    Both have a set of frozen conflicts.
    Both pocket any gains and move right along. Hong Kong and the Crimea? In the bag. Next crisis point?
    Both routinely raise or lower the temperature with respect to these frozen conflicts.
    Both use military force to expand their borders.
    Both routinely threaten serious levels of war.
    Both routinely deploy major military forces in a threatening manner.

    The question for all the experts is this: ‘When and where do they think Xi and Putin will stop their militaristic and imperialistic territorial aggrandizement?’

  22. Wayne!!! Is your girlfriend Bree going to drop in as well. What about your gaslighting, sea lioning, crazy uncle, L’arse the Bot Bot?

  23. Zerlo says:
    Sunday, February 13, 2022 at 7:41 pm

    Boerwar says:
    Sunday, February 13, 2022 at 7:25 pm

    I’m referring to the fact Western countries open season duck hunting during a Pandemic a legally free for all killing season.
    ————————–
    They closed the duck hunting season in Hong Kong to protect them from Covid?

  24. “I hope you are takimg the piss?”

    ***

    Perhaps not. There are seriously a small number of Laborites who hate the Greens that much that they genuinely believe that we are Liberals in disguise. It’s very bizarre. I think part of it has to do with being somewhat in a state of denial about the reality that there is a party to the left of them – they would rather believe that we are right wingers because they like to see themselves as the only party of the left.

    You and I have absolutely nothing in common politically and would never dream of posting what each other posts here. It makes no sense.

  26. Firefox:

    [‘If you lot think that opposing utterly abhorrent discrimination is being “purist” then I guess that speaks for itself, doesn’t it…’]

    You’ve been discredited – by dint of reasoned argument – by poster after poster but you still persist with obstinacy. The fact is, the highly offensive RD bill, as it concerns transgender people (arguably in toto) didn’t get up & never will. I’m not anti-Green but your posts are turning me into one if, that is, you’re indicative.

  29. “You’ve been discredited”

    ***

    Nonsense, Mavis. I have provided solid evidence to backup my arguments and been counted with nothing but spin and denials.

  30. I am saddened to learn that significant numbers of the Crackpots generously shared gastro with each out out at Epic.

    OTOH, giving themselves the shits does make a pleasant change from them giving everybody else the shits.

  32. ‘Zerlo says:
    Sunday, February 13, 2022 at 7:47 pm

    Boerwar says:
    Sunday, February 13, 2022 at 7:45 pm

    Yeah keep believing that USA ARE POLICE OF THE WORLD

    AND DID NO HARM’
    ———————-
    I would like to know how the US police secretly forced Covid onto the citizens of Hong Kong despite there being a closed season in Hong Kong.

  35. “But you keep doing you Firefox ”

    ***

    Voting for real progressives, one of whom happens to be the first female Muslim Senator in Australia’s history? Will do. Proudly too, I might add.

    You keep combing over the NSW Greens website looking for… something?

  36. The Greens’ home page says, ‘Tax the Billionaires’. Does that include Mike Cannon-Brookes too? Or are they okay with him putting hundreds of millions of his own money into Climate Change mitigation projects that he otherwise wouldn’t have if he was taxed as much as their simplistic ‘Tax the Billionaires’ policy would lead to?

  38. Firefox @ Sunday, February 13, 2022 at 7:58 pm

    Just asking questions Firefox. As I have previously. Is The Greens membership truly diverse? Does it represent a broad cross-section of Australian society? Or is that simply an image they are desperately trying to project?

    The website is data. Your responses are as well 😉

  39. Firefox @ #304 Sunday, February 13th, 2022 – 4:13 pm

    “If you want…”

    ***

    If you want to be used to support more terrible Coalition policies, vote Labor.

    On the other hand, if you want to kick the Liberals out and get serious action to address the climate emergency, vote Greens.

    😆 😆 😆

    There you go talking about the climate emergency again and linking action with the Greens being in power.

    You’ve just had a lesson in there being more than one way to achieve an objective and yet you continue to spout this absolutist nonsense.

    Do the Greens want make themselves completely redundant in any action?

  40. Asha @ #320 Sunday, February 13th, 2022 – 7:43 pm

    I cannot believe Fiona Kotvojs still hasn’t conceded. I know refusing to concede is all the rage for conservatives these days, but I don’t think I’ve ever seen it happen during a thrashing like this before. She’s just embarassing herself.

    I think this action just proves how unfit she would have been for any Australian parliament.

  44. “There you go talking about the climate emergency again and linking action with the Greens being in power.

    You’ve just had a lesson in there being more than one way to achieve an objective and yet you continue to spout this absolutist nonsense.

    Do the Greens want make themselves completely redundant in any action?”

    ***

    The lesson is that voting for Labor gets you either weak ALP policies or terrible Coalition policies. Labor continues to betray it’s supporters over and over again and continues to completely ignore and shun the left. The Greens will put an end to that if the people of Australia put us in a position to do so.

  45. ”
    Holdenhillbillysays:
    Sunday, February 13, 2022 at 5:18 pm
    A Covid cloud is hanging over the federal parliament after Nationals deputy leader David Littleproud tested positive.

    In a tweet, Mr Littleproud confirmed he had tested positive for the virus while in Canberra for the sitting fortnight.

    https://www.news.com.au/national/politics/nationals-deputy-leader-david-littleproud-tests-positive-for-covid19/news-story/9d88e30bfead90fd40aa5938ff7a4ad3
    ”

    Oh O.
    Nats Leader and Deputy leader have now tested positive to COVID.

  47. Welcome to the Firefox paradigm: despite repeated explanations regarding political strategy, in this paradigm Labor WANTED Morrison’s Religious Discrimination Act in its original form, because they allowed it through the house even though some amendments failed.

    Thus, Labor WANTED to vote for its original form in the Senate and inflict new forms of pain on the community, because Labor is gutless.

    But, if Labor wanted the RDA (in Firefox world, remember) and achieved it, surely that’s anything but gutless, that’s sticking to your guns. So, is Labor gutless or evil?

    Let’s apply the logic to Willoughby. Lieberals select a hard right candidate. Prominent Independent nominates. 18% swing against the Lieberals, almost enough to cost them the seat and prevent another hard-righter in Parliament, but not quite.

    Who gets third-most primary votes? The Greens candidate (12%?). In a tight race, surely greens preferences could be decisive. And they were.

    For the Greens said ‘Don’t preference anyone.’ That’s right, don’t recommend second-preferencing a Teal(ish) indie, just write 1 and exhaust.

    Logical conclusion: the Greens achieved what their actions were most likely to produce: a hard right Lieberal member for Willoughby. Therefore, we can only determine that this outcome is what the Greens wanted from the start, as they’ve known the nominations for weeks.

    Congratulations on a job well done.

  48. Snappy Tom

    Kotvojs probably can’t believe she didn’t win. She probably read the puff piece in the SMH the other day.

    I think that’s three strikes. Knowing the Libs they’ll most likely wheel her around again somewhere.

  49. Dear Firefox reminds me of Callas, who in her final years listened to her own recordings absent a critical ear or perhaps with one. Oh, and by the way, Itza, you’re right.

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