Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor

Newspoll’s second poll for the year records no change on the major party primary votes since the Coalition’s disastrous result a fortnight ago, but a decline in Greens support and Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings.

The Australian brings us a new result from Newspoll, suggesting it is moving to a fortnightly schedule now that the election is in view. It is only slightly better for the Coalition than the previous disaster, with Labor’s lead in from 56-44 to 55-45. Both major parties are unchanged on the primary vote, the Coalition at 34% and Labor at 41%, the two-party result reflecting a three-point drop in support for the Greens to 8%. One Nation is steady at 3%, with the lost Greens vote accounted for by a three-point increase in “others” to 14%.

The news for Labor is less good on personal ratings, with Anthony Albanese’s approval down three to 40% and disapproval up three to 46%, after the previous poll respectively had him up four and down two. Scott Morrison is up one on approval to 40% and down two on disapproval to 56%, and his lead as preferred prime minister is out from 43-41 to 43-38. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1526.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,556 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor”

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  1. Steve777 @ #99 Monday, February 14th, 2022 – 7:06 am

    ” Climate and integrity crusading independent federal MP Zali Steggall failed to disclose a six-figure political donation from the family trust…”

    The Dirt Units have been busy.

    I think it was just the regular post-election audit of disclosures that picked it up. But as C@t said, the timing of audit is advantageous to the government.

  3. Bludgings examples of religious intolerance show what we are capable of in the name of the so called spiritual pursuits. In Rome you can walk through a church that inspires awe then walk across the road through a square where someone was burned alive for not following some most likely right wing man’s interpretation of Jesus. As a non believer in the philosophy of organised religion I think we need a bill to protect us from their shenanigans.

  4. The protesters in Canberra “were searching for leadership. They didn’t find it in Canberra. They needed someone who would explain to them why Australia has implemented the public health measures that have saved thousands.

    Someone should just get one of those bullhorns that these protesters love and say to them, it’s called Public Health for a reason. You’re the public and one of government’s jobs is to put in place measures to keep you as healthy as possible. 😐

  6. Jenny Morrison, whilst proclaiming that she is no politician, sure has learned the lessons of Pollie Speak well:

    Jenny Morrison said she was “more than sorry if we disappointed” in the decision to leave the country during the bushfire emergency.

    Not sorry, full stop, but sorry if people were disappointed in the decision. Also, she makes certain sure to drag Labor into it in some way:

    She made the point that expectations of contemporary prime ministers were different than the expectations that surrounded earlier prime ministers, like Bob Hawke. “I think then it was OK to have a holiday and things like that and, and it doesn’t seem that way now.”

    Plus, well-practiced at the diversionary line:

    “Like, people want you to be seen to be doing something, um, all the time.”

    No, Jenny, only when it counts.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/feb/14/jenny-morrison-says-she-was-disappointed-with-grace-tames-behaviour-at-the-lodge

  8. “I think then it was OK to have a holiday and things like that and, and it doesn’t seem that way now.”

    Classic Scomo Speak: it’s always someone else’s fault and I’m the victim here.

  12. I foresee that after Scott has expended so much time in praying for Australia , when the election is called he will ask us all to pray for his reelection.
    As someone has already said, we need an active leader, not a preacher.

  13. I have frequently pointed out the threat the Teals pose to the Greens – they peel off the voters who are ‘protest voters’ going for the ‘a curse on both your houses’ approach.

    This poll is self explanatory – voters are moving to the Teals (many of whom were only announced over the couple of months, so this explains the timing) from the Greens.

    3% is too large a figure to be explained away by a bad sample, particularly as the headline figures fit in with the trend.

    That the Teals are even necessary points to the failure of the Greens to tap into the ‘curse on both your houses’ ‘send a message to the major parties’ mood (which is basically always there). That a government which is clearly on the nose, particularly with those who are pro environment, pro social justice, doesn’t see voters flocking to the Greens (oh, sorry, forgot the 0.5% for a second) is also worrying for them.

    So more Teal candidates out there = swing against the Greens seems to make perfect sense.

  14. I feel Morrison shot himself in the foot with his secret weapon. A puff piece would have worked a treat. But Mrs Morrison taking the blame for Hawaii (and invoking Hawke in the process !?!?, Hawke, the guy who actually did stuff as PM) and targeting Tame (amongst a couple of other things) will make many cringe.

    The loyal journos and editors will give it positive coverage. And it will help in some demographics who pay attention to them. It could have been so much more.

    Either she actually believes that stuff or she willingly got involved in issues (that she needed to stay out of) to do her husbands dirty work that he felt he couldn’t. She’s tarnished her reputation in the minds of many.

    Foot shot, weapon blunted. Reduced immediate benefit. How did he stuff this up?

  15. I think the 60 Minutes interview ended up being an own goal for Morrison, mostly because his wife used it as a platform to have a go at Grace Tame

    “I just wish the focus had been on all the incredible people coming in,” Mrs Morrison told interviewer Karl Stefanovic. “I just found it a little bit disappointing, [because] we were welcoming her in our home.”

    NO manners ? Last time I looked Grace Tame was not being welcomed into “our home”. It was The Lodge .. not the private home of the Morrison’s unless you think you own it because you are a Liberal.

    More to the point, having a go at Grace Tame for not showing proper “manners” will go down like a lead balloon . The main MSM take away’s from the interview have been those comments, an admission that going to Hawaii during the bushfire crisis was “wrong” and Scott playing a musical instrument… bizzare as his hair washing incident last week.

    Well he can try to ‘tiptoe through the tulips’ all he likes but having a go at Grace Tame will not endear his wife or himself to many people in the broader community. He might be wishing now he hadn’t done the 60 Minutes interview- no net gain here in trying to portray himself and just a blokey bloke with a nice family.

  16. Growing inflation and earlier-than-expected interest rate rises are forcing the Morrison government to reconsider its pre-election tax cut promise.

    The Coalition might just be timing an election loss perfectly. If inflation and interest rates take off guess who will be given the blame ? If Labor wins it will be the incoming government of course. It’s SOP and you can bet the Murdoch and MSM lackeys will sell that story 24/7.

  17. Did the Morrisons mention anything about the incompetence of the Vaccine rollout , Australians getting sick and those who sadly lost their lives

  18. lizzie,
    Katharine Murphy has just dropped her latest opinion article and it says just that:

    Before 60 Minutes went to air on Sunday night, a mate of mine called to express her frustration.

    Enough already, was her point. Enough of whatever this infomercial was.

    Enough of Morrison’s ephemera, the featherweight impressionism, the rehearsed verisimilitude. Daggy dad. Sharkies fan. Curry chef. Identities curated and stacked inside one another like hollow babushka dolls.

    Why, my mate wondered, can’t we just have a prime minister?

    Just that.

    A prime minister.

    Plain and simple.

    Weighted and steadied by the office.

    And not constantly apologised for by Jenny Morrison.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/feb/14/scott-morrisons-problems-wont-be-solved-by-jenny-or-engineered-tv-puffery

  20. Zerlo

    1. Genocide no longer means that you have to try to kill everyone belonging to a particular group. Nor does it have to be total.
    2. Genocide is now commonly applied to the treatment by the invaders in both the USA and Australia.
    3. Genocide does not have to be complete. It can be a process in train.
    4. Genocide applies to the suppression of self-determination, the systematic destruction of cultural values and and the targeted destruction of social relationships.

    Using 1-4, China is committing genocide against the Uighers.

  21. In other words Boer, ‘genocide’ no longer has its original meaning.

    Who is signing up for woke ‘peace studies’ now?

  22. The Teals are gaining traction because the “Liberals” have mostly vacated the Centre. The few liberals remaining in the party have little influence. The Greens are a left wing outfit that have little appeal to people who have voted Liberal (and many who vote Labor). There’s a gap in the political market ready to be filled.

  23. ”Did the Morrisons mention anything about the incompetence of the Vaccine rollout , Australians getting sick and those who sadly lost their lives”

    Did the interviewer even ask?

  24. Strict biosecurity laws banning unvaccinated Australians from leaving the country have been extended a further two months until April 17. The laws, which have been in place since Australia’s first lockdowns on March 18, 2020, also ban cruises and require pre-departure testing for international arrivals and mask wearing on flights.

    Unvaccinated Australians need an exemption to leave the country. Travel for work, healthcare or a compassionate reason is allowed but holidays are not.

    It also includes mandatory pre-departure testing and mask wearing for international flights and restrictions on the entry of cruise vessels into and within Australian territory.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10500953/Unvaccinated-Australians-banned-leaving-country-April-17.html

    This is not going to go down well with the ANTI VAX mob hanging around Canberra and protesting against everything to do with Covid management measures.

  25. The truck convoy and the cookers in Canberra as well as everywhere else, are merely the useful idiots.
    What is really at play is diminishing democratic norms.
    The Canada game plan is to disrupt the supply chains in north America.

    Meanwhile looks very much like Putin is getting ready to push into Ukraine. It will get messy but ukraine and allies are ready.
    This should see Putin fail and be much maligned within his own country.

  26. C@t,

    Teals currently have 19 candidates selected. There are 151 divisions.
    So Teals are running in 12.5% of possible seats.

    If you assume they are polling 30% each of those seats then this would be 3.77% of the national vote.
    Greens vote in the seats Teals are contesting is 1.21% of national vote. If Teals completely eliminated the Greens vote in all those seats Greens vote would drop by 1.21% compared to 2019.

    This is a listing of seats from Wikipedia “Voices of” page, with Greens 2019 PV. The status indicates whether a candidate as actually been nominated. These include “Voices4” and “Voices Of” and are not necessarily all “Teals”. Others like Cooper exist only as a couple of tweets asking if there is any interest.

    Greens polled 9.94% in Wide Bay in 2019 so from that division down Greens votes is below the national PV. There are seven Teal candidates selected where Greens polled above their national pv in 2019.

    So Teals are not going to poll any more than 3.77% of National PV with currently selected candidates, and the direct impact on Greens PV has an upper limit of 1.21% based on 2019 polling.

  28. It would appear Jen was heavily coached in what to say, with probably many takes by Ch9 to remove any bloopers
    ———————-
    I don’t know. The out-takes might get out.

    But they were careful that when she ventured into politics to try to make it personal – in order to claim she wasn’t being politicised. For example, her problem with Tame was that she didn’t show manners ‘at their home’ (as cringeworthy as that statement is). So you may be right in that this was carefully crafted and some takes necessary and some parts requested to be cut.

    I remember an interview with Keating and Hawke back in the day when Keating insisted the whole interview had to be shown – in its entirety – because he was worried they would cut and splice it out of context.

  31. BK,
    If you want, I can do the Dawn Patrol, turn and turn about with you, until such time as you tell me that you are up to it full time again? 🙂

    I’ve got nothing else to do except feed and walk a dog and a cat for a month while their owners are in the US.

  33. Jenny Morrison should have flipped the question regarding Grace Tame’s lack of a smile & zeroed in on her good works.
    Instead we get petty schoolyard pay back.

  36. Zerlo says:
    Monday, February 14, 2022 at 8:28 am
    The whole soap opera thing with Jenny and Scotty is just to get women to vote for liberals

    The same with the kitchen soap opera
    —
    That’s why I always despised Kitchen Cabinet. Crabb never asked the questions of some truly loathsome people that needed to be asked. Instead it was always some variation of “here’s my banana loaf with chia seed!”

  38. I thought this was the ‘money shot’ in Yabsley’s piece, Morrison is lazy, substitutes prayer for holding a hose (or anything else) and the electoral climate today is vastly altered to those halcyon days of 2019 when he began his marketing with the electorate..

    Liberal Party statesman Sir John Carrick was fond of saying “you can’t fatten the pig on market day”. That was a quaint, old-fashioned but profound way of saying that successful campaigning is all about being on the field early, with a good candidate, and a well-resourced campaign.

    I thought Jenny gave all the young women of Australia a wonderfully convincing lesson on how to smile in the presence of a powerful man last night.

  44. HG Nelson: The stunning admission in the ‘60 Minutes’ hootenanny was that Soot is up all night wearing out his side of the bed solving the nation’s problems. It’s a stumper! Carpet layers are scratching their heads trying to locate a locally woven broadloom that can take the strain.

  45. If Albo can’t win this one, it’s hard to see how the ALP would ever form Government.
    I’ve backed him, and have backed the ALP to win 79 in the HOR.
    But, it’s far from over.
    The small target strategy could play against them. It’s going to be an on the ground seat by seat battle. And that’s where the ALP have a measurable advantage.

  47. Best wishes to BK.

    I didn’t watch 4 Corners, but it sounds a pretty poor showing. Did he really say he prays by his bed, wearing out the carpet. Gimme a break. Who does he think we are. Who does that? Who does he think he is, Christopher fucking Robin! What did he pray for, that’s what I would have asked … what exactly did he ask of his god? (spoiler – think narcissist).

    As for Mrs Morrison, the not-her-home hostess, the last thing we saw in that footage was any welcoming. The Morrisons stood there at the threshold, like some uncomfortable interlopers, expecting a conga line of bowers and scrapers by the look of the set up, only to have Morrison finally resort to calling Grace Tame and her partner to ‘come over here’, with all the style and wit of the slob that he is. Welcoming my arse.

    Happy Valentines day, anyway. Hogwash. Bah Humbug. Another marketing triumph for florists and greeting cards. Every day should be Valentines Day.

  50. I think this is an amazingly strong poll for Labor. The Primary is consolidating around 40% and a vote at that level at the Polls will see a comfortable victory to Albo and the ALP.

    This 40% represents about a 6-7% swing to Labor on Primaries.

    Where has it come from? Obviously, incompetence around the Federal Government’s response to Covid has been in the figures for months. The feelings probably peaked over summer. But, it’s still very strong.

    Obviously, Labor has grabbed a share from the Greens of voters who have decided to back in Labor to govern rather than park their vote with the Greens. The other loss for the Greens has to be alternatives like the Teal Independents. They have a broader but more focussed agenda than the Greens and are seeming to offer a more measured and reasonable approach to their concerns about integrity issues, Climate Change and women’s safety. The hysterical in your face nonsense of the Greens on forums like PB of late is going down like a lead balloon in the broader community as well. There is only so much self centred virtue declaring that people will absorb before they turn off and start looking for an alternative group that they have more in common.

    Obviously, the Libs have shed some votes to other conservative outfits like the Shooters, One nation and UAP. But will that flow back to the Libs in preferences? Will they even vote?

    The other obvious demographic is women. I saw stats the other day that there is a 60/40 split in some demographic cohorts. hence we see moves for the sanctification of Jenny and no doubt we’ll see a relaunch of the daggy dad PM in coming weeks.

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