Utting Research WA poll, Morrison leadership ratings and more

“More” being the Liberals’ slow-motion Dobell preselection and declining prospects for a March federal election.

As the silly season reaches its apex, such news and relevant information as I have to offer:

• A poll by Utting Research on federal voting in Western Australia, published yesterday in The West Australian, is broadly in line with other polling from the state in crediting Labor with a lead of 55-45, a swing of 10.5% compared with the 2019 election. The primary votes are Labor 46%, Coalition 39%, Greens 7%, One Nation 3% and UAP 1%. The poll also has Scott Morrison at 28% approval and 46% disapproval (which is quite a bit worse than his 45% approval and 51% disapproval from the state in the last quarterly Newspoll) and Anthony Albanese at 21% and 44%, while Mark McGowan has 75% approval with no disapproval rating provided. The poll was conducted last Wednesday from a sample of 650.

• US pollster Morning Consult’s monthly tracking polling for various international leaders’ personal ratings has Scott Morrison at 43% approval and 51% disapproval, respectively down three and up five on a month ago.

The Australian reports the dispute over the New South Wales Liberal Party’s highly incomplete federal preselection process rumbles on, with St Vincent’s Hospital cardiologist Michael Feneley winning the endorsement of John Howard in his bid for preselection in Dobell – putting him at odds with Scott Morrison, who favours Jemima Gleeson, who owns a chain of coffee shops and a preacher at the HopeUC Pentecostal church in Charmhaven.

David Crowe of the Age/Herald reports that “the Omicron wave has wiped out the idea of a snap election campaign as soon as next month”, hitherto rated “an outside chance for some Liberals who believed it was safer to go to an election in March than to wait until May”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,159 comments on “Utting Research WA poll, Morrison leadership ratings and more”

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  1. Greensborough Growler says:
    Saturday, January 15, 2022 at 9:08 pm
    I reckon a test asking visa applicants whether you should put pineapple on Pizza would sort out those who should and should not come to Australia.
    maybe you should get extra points if you put glitter on the application?

  2. I reckon a test asking visa applicants whether you should put pineapple on Pizza would sort out those who should and should not come to Australia.

    I’m leaving for Serbia on the next available flight.

  3. I am eating a Hawaiian pizza now, waiting – almost literally – for Hawaii (well, Tonga, same thing) to arrive on my doorstep.

    I’ve eaten at Splav Viva many times. But I never eat the Hawaiian pizzas there. They make the, ahem, “pineapple” out of potato skins and turnip hearts. Doesn’t have the texture of real pineapple.

  4. GG
    Spoiler alert for Wordle fans.

    I started today’s Wordle with DELAY. Got to PANIC (the answer) in three moves. Equally apt, I would think.

  5. It will be one for the books if the anti-vac ND manages to defeat the wot-vac Morrison Government.

    Permitting ND to enter and play in the AO would be classically-correct letting-it-rip. The Morrison regime – the noisiest exponents of let-it-rip pandemic/public anti-health management – cannot even enact their own non-policies. They are a very feeble imitation of a Government.

    Their incompetence is exceeded only by their bravado and their self-deception.

  6. In the polling world, Xmas-January is usually a phase for a political re-set. Voters tune out from politics and public affairs, take holidays, go to the beach, spend time with their families and feel better about life in general.

    But not this year. Delta, Covid and the blindingly incomprehensible mismanagement of Morrison and his gang have ensured that politics, public health and personal welfare have been front of mind, and not in a good way.

    This must be highly likely to register in the intentions of voters. Really, who could take the LNP seriously now? They are a farce. Maybe this will change by May. But it must surely be hurting the coalition now.

  7. It appears to me that Djokovic is being made an example of by a vindictive government used to bullying dagoes, wogs, orientals and other darkies of various hues. That’s how they see them anyway, through that derogatory lens: as inferior to your True Blue Aussies, oi, oi, oi.

    I have very little time for Djokovic, or his wacky ideas, but really? An entire nation cowering under the doona, terrified of him expressing his point of view, and even if he agrees to keep his mouth shut, running scared of what his supporters might say? In a country where Scott Morrison’s personal 2019 captain’s pick as the Member for Hughes is running around spending millions on TV ads bagging the shit out of his erstwhile patron, on exactly the subject of vaccination?

    The wise choice woukd be for the Full Bench to find that Hawke’s reasoning us UN-reasonable, far too late to have any effect on the “debate” here, especially as Djokovic has shown absolutely no inclination to comment on the subject while in Australia, extract an assurance from Djokovic that he will stick to his tennis – no anti-vaxx diatribes, no politics or whingeing – and let him play, then leave.

    The horse has well and truly bolted on the topic of vaccinations.

  8. Djokovic should not have been allowed to have a visa in the first place.

    Yes, anything pertaining to a victory to him is a victory to the anti vaccs.

    Sad you don’t see it that way Bushfire.

    Never thought you would support an anti vaxxer.

  9. “ Yes, anything pertaining to a victory to him is a victory to the anti vaccs.”

    The obvious counter to that, is that any defeat – especially if he falls fouls of the arbitrary ‘god powers’ of the minister – will give the anti vaxxers their ultimate victory: a genuine martyr to deify.

    Own goal. Much?

    Sad that you can’t see the play.

  10. Any threat that Novak may have posed to Australia is probably long since moot, given the devastation unleashed by the negligence and incompetence of the dynamic duo of Scott and Dominic. Novak’s probably in more danger here than he would be in, say, the USA or back home in Serbia but hey, a distraction is needed. I don’t care whether he plays tennis here or not. Either way, the media will try to spin it as a win for the Morrison Government.

  11. “ No own goal there, however, thanks for your condescending reply.”

    I’m sorry you thought my reply was condescending, but don’t you think your response to BB’s point was itself … a tad condescending? Pot. Kettle and all that.

    Anyhoo. The “own goal” I was referring related to the Minister’s reasons (as per his lawyers written FC submissions) for cancelling the visa. Not your reply – which I was merely offering a counter POV.

  12. I think the commonwealth might lose. The argument might be. There is no law or regulation requiring double vax. What is this risk you talk about? The minister has gone mad.

    Don’t need a full bench for a non controversial decision.

  13. I think the commonwealth might lose. The argument might be. There is no law or regulation requiring double vax. What is this risk you talk about? The minister has gone mad.

    Don’t need a full bench for a non controversial decision.

  14. I thought you were referring to me re own goal A_E.

    Of course it’s the Federal Governments own goal.

    Rereading BB’s comment I now realise I could have jumped in too soon.

    Apologies all around.

  15. 82cm tsunami wave height detected at the Gold Coast at 22:54 AEDT.

    Location: Lord Howe Island
    Impact Type: Unusual currents and waves
    Approximate Observation Time: 11:00 15/01/2022 UTC
    Details: 1.10 m waves continuing to be observed at Ned’s Beach.

    Location: Derwent Park, Hobart
    Impact Type: Unusual currents and waves
    Approximate Observation Time: 11:44 15/01/2022 UTC
    Details: 50 cm surge observed in the marina.

  16. Been There has judged me a sinner. Fairly typical of the morally pure amongst us.

    Sad you don’t see it that way Bushfire.

    Never thought you would support an anti vaxxer.

    They’re always telling others where they got it wrong. And how “sad” it all is.

    The first thing I said was that I don’t have any time for Djokovic and his wacky ideas. Been There must have Been Somewhere Else at the time.

    But I can also smell a rat in the way the government has acted. Waiting until 5.55pm on a Friday was a political rat act. Too late for Djokovic to do anything (or so they thought) but just in time for the 6 o’clock news. What a co-incidence!

    I remind Been There that refusing to get vaccinated against COVID is not a criminal offence. I don’t agree with that stance, and I have little sympathy for those who suffer because of it, but it’s still not illegal.

    Djokovic anyway claimed to have been positive to SARS-CoV-2 on December 16th, which entitled him to apply for an exemption from having to disclose his vaccination status. A positive test up to 6 months before entry to Australia renders vaccination status moot. There is some doubt as to whether the certificate he obtained was genuine or mot. Djokovic’s subsequent actions and travels cast doubt on his story as well.

    But that wasn’t the government’s case. The government, which in the last few weeks has not only sanctioned, but positively welcomed and encouraged unrestricted mingling of the unvaccinated with the vaccinated, the dismantling of contact tracing, and the re-definition of “Close Contact” so as to make the concept virtually meaningless, has suddenly Got Religion about spreading the Plague. No lesser authority than the Health Minister of NSW has told us to virtually give up, as we’re all going to get it.

    I find the Minister’s contention both funny and VERY unconvincing. You can’t just make up any old reason to deny a visa. It has to be reasonable. You can’t just say, for example, that you don’t like left handed people, and you’re going to ban them, then expect the Full Bench of the Federal Court to keep a straight face. Likewise asking the Full Court to believe that Djokovic’s mere presence here is a threat to peace and good order in civil society because he is unvaccinated is preposterous. If the judges believe the minister has been unreasonable, in that he just made up a reason, they may well hesitate to confirm the minister’s refusal of a visa based on the minister’s stated terms. In these matters you still have to be reasonable, even if you are the Immigration Minister. It’s called Natural Justice.

    I still thing the best face-saving solution might be for Djokovic to promise not to cause any trouble, thus negating the minister’s objections, in return for being allowed to play, subject to isolation when not playing or practicing.

  17. Okay Bushfire I’ll wind it back.

    See my last comment.

    My main thought though is that you can’t enter Australia unless you are double vaxxed or have an exemption.

    If that’s the case, then the Joker is well and truly!

  18. That’s the point, BT. If you have a positive test result within 6 months previous to entry, you get an exemption.

    I know, Djokovic’s certificate seems rubbery to say the least, especially given his subsequent activities, but there it is. Even the Minister is not trying to keep him out based on vaccination status. My suspicion is that they were trying to get evidence it was bogus, but ran out of time. So they’ve fallen back on Djokovic being an undesireable troublemaker, whose very presence will cause “civil unrest”. That, to me, is a bit of a stretch.

    The minister can set out to ban someone from entry because privately he doesn’t like that person. But he still has to give a reason that would stack up to a “reasonable man”. Just not liking someone personally is unreasonable.

    Likewise banning Djokovic because he is only four feet tall doesn’t stack up either, because Djokovic is over six feet tall! Just because the Minister says something’s true doesn’t make it so.

    The classic case involved forcing a Czech man to do a dictation test in Scottish Gaelic, which of course he couldn’t do. This was based in the propisition that Scottish Gaelic is a “European Language”, as set out in the Act.

    OK, you’d think that’d be the end of it, but the Czech guy challenged whether Scottish Gaelic WAS in fact a European language. The Court found it was not. In short even the Minister, who appears to have untrammelled power to withhold visas, has to be reasonable as to why, once he *gives* his reason. If he gives a reason, and those reasons don’t stack up, he can be overruled.

  19. I’m intrigued as to how a Government Minister can kick Djokovic out of the country because his views MIGHT prompt public disorder when the LNP has current and former members who are actually doing exactly that with their identical views.

    I wonder if Mr Djokovic’s legal team will mention that to the judges.

  20. 82cm tsunami wave height detected at the Gold Coast at 22:54 AEDT.

    77cm tsunami wave height detected at Twofold Bay at 23:30 AEDT.

  21. It will be interesting to see whether a (this) government can get away with deporting someone who is less of a threat in a particular area than its own members.

  22. I wonder if ASIO have the following background info about Djokovic :

    ‘In recent years Djokovic has not shied away from controversies, and his globally known novaxx stance and his new-age, pseudo-science statements are potentially the least dangerous bits.
    The world’s number one tennis player has embraced a far more sinister agenda and characters, which provokes a deep anxiety across Balkans, a region bracing for a new series of crisis caused by the resurgent nationalism in Serbian political circles.’
    ‘ The narrative supported by Djokovic has already hit Oceania hard — the gunman who killed 49 people in a terror attack on two mosques in Christchurch in New Zealand was an admirer of Serbian nationalist figures, and he played a song honoring Radovan Karadzic before opening fire.’

  23. While not on the same scale, the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Haʻapai eruption has some similarities to Krakatoa, 1883; I would not be at all surprised if it turns out there was a caldera collapse.

    Pressure wave

    The pressure wave generated by the colossal third explosion radiated out from Krakatoa at 1,086 km/h (675 mph). The eruption is estimated to have reached 310 dB, loud enough to be heard 5,000 kilometres (3,100 mi) away.  It was so powerful that it ruptured the eardrums of sailors 64 km (40 miles) away on ships in the Sunda Strait,  and caused a spike of more than 8.5 kilopascals (2.5 inHg) in pressure gauges 160 km (100 miles) away, attached to gasometers in the Batavia gasworks, sending them off the scale.

    The pressure wave was recorded on barographs all over the world. Several barographs recorded the wave seven times over the course of five days: four times with the wave travelling away from the volcano to its antipodal point, and three times travelling back to the volcano.  Hence, the wave rounded the globe three and a half times. Ash was propelled to an estimated height of 80 km (50 mi).


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