Utting Research WA poll, Morrison leadership ratings and more

“More” being the Liberals’ slow-motion Dobell preselection and declining prospects for a March federal election.

As the silly season reaches its apex, such news and relevant information as I have to offer:

• A poll by Utting Research on federal voting in Western Australia, published yesterday in The West Australian, is broadly in line with other polling from the state in crediting Labor with a lead of 55-45, a swing of 10.5% compared with the 2019 election. The primary votes are Labor 46%, Coalition 39%, Greens 7%, One Nation 3% and UAP 1%. The poll also has Scott Morrison at 28% approval and 46% disapproval (which is quite a bit worse than his 45% approval and 51% disapproval from the state in the last quarterly Newspoll) and Anthony Albanese at 21% and 44%, while Mark McGowan has 75% approval with no disapproval rating provided. The poll was conducted last Wednesday from a sample of 650.

• US pollster Morning Consult’s monthly tracking polling for various international leaders’ personal ratings has Scott Morrison at 43% approval and 51% disapproval, respectively down three and up five on a month ago.

The Australian reports the dispute over the New South Wales Liberal Party’s highly incomplete federal preselection process rumbles on, with St Vincent’s Hospital cardiologist Michael Feneley winning the endorsement of John Howard in his bid for preselection in Dobell – putting him at odds with Scott Morrison, who favours Jemima Gleeson, who owns a chain of coffee shops and a preacher at the HopeUC Pentecostal church in Charmhaven.

David Crowe of the Age/Herald reports that “the Omicron wave has wiped out the idea of a snap election campaign as soon as next month”, hitherto rated “an outside chance for some Liberals who believed it was safer to go to an election in March than to wait until May”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,159 comments on “Utting Research WA poll, Morrison leadership ratings and more”

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  1. Right on cue 🙂

    The Australian Federal Government has told itself it must leave the country immediately, after it was found to be openly ‘stoking anti-vaccination sentiment’.

    In a statement this morning, Immigration Minister Alex Hawke conceded the Government is a risk to civil order and public health given at least two of its members have been openly posting anti-vaccination articles on social media.
    George Christensen called for civil disobedience in response to vaccination rules and appeared on the television show of US conspiracy theorist Alex Jones. Gerard Rennick shared dozens of anti-vaccination posts, including one from a prominent anti-vax leader who has previously called for the execution of Jacinda Ardern. Alex Antic voted with One Nation to scrap vaccination mandates and allegedly misled the Prime Minister on his own vaccination status.

    “Given the Government’s high-profile status and position as a role model in the broader community, its ongoing presence in Australia may foster similar disregard for the precautionary requirements following receipt of a positive COVID-19 test in Australia,” Mr Hawke said.

    The Government has a right to launch an appeal, but it is believed that it will make it as difficult as possible for itself by cunningly delaying proceedings until late on a Friday afternoon. “We can’t help it, it’s just second nature for us to manipulate things like this,” Mr Hawke said.

    It is unclear where the Government will go once it is asked to leave Australia given it will not have the right to enter any other countries. “We’ll probably have to just lock ourselves in a hotel in Carlton for nine years,” Hawke said. “Although George Christensen will probably go to The Phillipines”
    https://www.theshovel.com.au/2022/01/15/government-deports-itself-for-stoking-anti-vax-sentiment/

  2. Not even worth doing the obligatory stuff anymore like the budget reply, ovoid it.
    I met with a group of ABC workers in a fire drill once 2 out of seven had Che Guevara T shirts on they weren’t even ALP they were hardcore greens.

    “A survey by the University of the Sunshine Coast, for example, found that ABC journalists intended to vote in the recent elections 41 per cent for The Greens, 34 per cent for Labor and only 16 per cent for the Coalition. A survey published by the Australian Journalists Review came to a similar conclusion yet at the same time Newspoll found that Australians intended to vote 46 per cent for the Coalition, 31 per cent for Labor and only 9 per cent for The Greens, with others at 14 per cent—a massive divergence between the Australian electorate and ABC journalists.”

  3. I always thought Howard enjoyed his one-on-ones with Kerry O’Brien.

    To be the best you have to tackle the best and 15 minutes with O’Brien was as searching an examination as there was.

    I was no Howard lover but he showed up.

  4. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jan/15/unions-say-exemption-to-allow-covid-positive-people-to-work-at-sa-meatworks-sets-dangerous-precedent?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    An exemption issued to a South Australian meatworks to allow Covid-positive staff to continue working creates a dangerous precedent for other firms eager to operate even as case numbers soar, the head of Australia’s unions says.

    Teys Australia abattoir near Naracoorte, which supplies beef to supermarket giant Woolworths, operated for several days before closing on Thursday even after at least 140 of its nearly 400 staff tested positive for Covid.

    SA Health issued an exemption to allow infected staff to work if they were asymptomatic, but one employee said some sick staff had worked despite showing symptoms.

  5. Dr Tamsyn VanRheenen
    @TamsynVR
    ·
    13h
    First week back at daycare for my 2.5 year old niece and she’s already got COVID. It’s going to be a disaster when schools open up

  6. Naaman Zhou
    @naamanzhou
    Novak Djokovic’s legal team sent the immigration minister a blurry screenshot of an online poll run by the Age and the SMH that asked “Should Djokovic stay?” — where they themselves voted “Yes”



    lol

  7. Um, Steelydan, it’s called free will and a democracy.

    Nevertheless, how do you explain away Sarah Henderson? Or that grinning goon, Lisa Millar, on ABC Breakfast? Or the latest good little conservative girl, Fauziah Ibrahim?

    They’re aok on the ABC as far as you’re concerned, right? 🙄

  8. Steelydan

    I would hope that ABC employees are also above average intelligence, well educated, critically question the status quo, and can put sentences together logically. This does not indicate the average Liberal voter to me.

  9. Is this guy using mascara now!?! Or is he applying filters on his photos? If this is an example of the new photographer Morrison has employed, the photos have gone from bad to worse!

    (This is the photo accompanying the Deborah Snow article)

  10. Steelydan
    A political leader should not only talk to people they think will vote for them because in many cases issues go across party lines and when it comes to the Greens and the ALP about 15% to 20% of their voters preference the Liberals ahead of the other. The Liberals talk themselves into seeing issues as left or right wing take gender because the reactionaries will say its a left issue but many of the leading gender advocates are Liberal party women but we don’t see the ALP saying you are Liberal women go away.

  11. BK,

    You know the drill.

    Morrison and the Libs avoid making any decision for as long as is possible and then stuff it up.

  12. Anyway, to focus on which political party any journalist may or may not vote for is just another in a long, line line of Kulcha War tropes that the Right employs to distract from the real issue-that Right politicians refuse to be held accountable by the national broadcaster and only like to do softball interviews.

    Or if they do do an interview on the national broadcaster it’s only to get their pre-digested talking points out. They generally refuse to be held to account.

  13. By the time the election is held (May, or possibly, September), regardless of who the Prime Minister is then, the omicron wave will have blown itself out, there will be fewer cumulative COVID deaths in Australia than the vast majority of the Western World, and the great majority of the electorate will have forgotten about the suboptimal initial distribution of RATs.

    The Coalition will then be re-elected. Albanese to be replaced by Plibersek or possibly Bill Shorten, consigning Labor to at least another decade of oblivion.

  14. Nostradamussays:
    Saturday, January 15, 2022 at 1:49 pm

    lol

    That maybe true if it was a social government, but this is a fascist government.

  15. Does the Nine press actually expect me to think that the Deborah Snow i/v with Morrison is some sort of intellectual insight into him …?

  16. Remember way back in 2020 and early 2021, when everyone was saying how stuffed Albo would be if he had to fight Scomo during a Covid election, and that his only hope was that the pandemic becomes yesterday’s news so they can shift the focus on other issues?

    Sure, Omicron could well be a thing of the past by May (much like how Delta wouldn’t be on anyone’s radars come December and January?) But to suggest that the government could just cruise to victory as a result ignores all the other areas where they are incredibly vulnerable.

  17. Nostradamus chimes in with the LNP’s ‘sunlight uplands’ election gambit.

    Same as L’arse.

    Were the omicron failures the only black mark to this government’s name, they might be right.

    However, the current clusterfuck is merely emblematic of a wider malaise – a corrupt and rolling omnishambes of an outfit going on for 9 years now; the fuck ups have only accelerated over the past three years. I also suspect that folk feel like they are being slapped in the face with all the marketing spin. The daggy dad routine was worn thin even with the bogans who brought into it in 2019.

    Retail and small businesses are on their knees for the third time in two years. The potential of a ‘snap back’ once omicron passes grows dimmer by the day with more and more businesses simply going out of business and into bankruptcy under piling debts. Unlike lockdown 1.0 – and even 2.0 – many simply won’t be around to ‘snap back’ this time.

    Low interest, low information voters may have short memories, but not that short. In fact they are not likely to look at the subtleties – as can be seen from 2019. THAT will work against ScoMo this time.

  18. Nostradamus @ #2868 Saturday, January 15th, 2022 – 1:49 pm

    By the time the election is held (May, or possibly, September), regardless of who the Prime Minister is then, the omicron wave will have blown itself out, there will be fewer cumulative COVID deaths in Australia than the vast majority of the Western World, and the great majority of the electorate will have forgotten about the suboptimal initial distribution of RATs.

    The Coalition will then be re-elected. Albanese to be replaced by Plibersek or possibly Bill Shorten, consigning Labor to at least another decade of oblivion.

    Do you even feel slightly embarrassed when you write this absolute crap?

  19. Asha @ #2874 Saturday, January 15th, 2022 – 2:00 pm

    Remember way back in 2020 and early 2021, when everyone was saying how stuffed Albo would be if he had to fight Scomo during a Covid election, and that his only hope was that the pandemic becomes yesterday’s news so they can shift the focus on other issues?

    Sure, Omicron could well be a thing of the past by May (much like how Delta wouldn’t be on anyone’s radars come December and January?) But to suggest that the government could just cruise to victory as a result ignores all the other areas where they are incredibly vulnerable.

    Everyone has been impacted negatively by Morrisons inept and corrupt Govt to varying degrees over the past three years.

    It’s only the L/NP rusted ons who, for some reason, will go along with it.

  20. As I mentioned last night, why would the govt shamelessly use the ‘health and public interest’ grounds, when their own Government MPs have been spouting the anti vaxx message. And when Morrison has been asked about it. Crickets.

    Not forgetting the Victorian liberal MPS role in attending anti vax rallies together with Craig Kelly and Clive palmer who are proxies for the govt.

  21. Retail and hospitality chaos, health and aged care chaos, education chaos …every demographic has been negatively impacted by Morrison’s failure of leadership and lack of qualification to be PM.

    There’s no forgetting the last three years.

  22. Good god that Snow job was barf worthy. It saddens me to think how unworthy we are to be led by such a saint.

    ……one of the most revealing moments came in answer to the most innocuous question.

    I’d asked him if he had given any thought to his legacy. “No,” he shot back…………….But the speed with which he rejects the notion of even contemplating a legacy is striking. It’s as if devoting headspace to larger ideas about the future of the country is a form of moral or intellectual vanity, a derogation of prime-ministerial duty.

    “It’s just not how I think about things,” he says

  23. Not forgetting the Victorian liberal MPS role in attending anti vax rallies together with Craig Kelly and Clive palmer who are proxies for the govt.

    Those plonkers who who got scammed by them will one day be very embarrassed about it.

  24. Surprising that some of the vociferous RW posters haven’t picked this one up.

    Are we weathering the climate storm?
    Australia has benefited from the effects of two La Nina years, much to chagrin of catastrophists.
    (Murdoch’s Oz)

  25. This is a very good point.

    —-
    Further to this, Dan Andrews made it crystal clear his government would not be applying for exemptions for any anti-vaxxer tennis players. So why did the Morrison Government beg Victoria three times to apply for an exemption if it believed Djokovic should not be here?

  26. Rex Douglas at 1:58 pm

    Does the Nine press actually expect me to think that the Deborah Snow i/v with Morrison is some sort of intellectual insight into him …?

    They do indeed and expect plenty more. There’s an election to be won. So there’s going to be a whole lotta turd polishing to be done to sell the legend of how Bullshit Man brilliantly lead us through the darkest days of covid.

  27. poroti @ #2885 Saturday, January 15th, 2022 – 2:17 pm

    Rex Douglas at 1:58 pm

    Does the Nine press actually expect me to think that the Deborah Snow i/v with Morrison is some sort of intellectual insight into him …?

    They do indeed and expect plenty more. There’s an election to be won. So there’s going to be a whole lotta turd polishing to be done to sell the legend of how Bullshit Man brilliantly lead us through the darkest days of covid.

    Corporate media sucks.

  28. Rex Douglas @ #2886 Saturday, January 15th, 2022 – 2:19 pm

    poroti @ #2885 Saturday, January 15th, 2022 – 2:17 pm

    Rex Douglas at 1:58 pm

    Does the Nine press actually expect me to think that the Deborah Snow i/v with Morrison is some sort of intellectual insight into him …?

    They do indeed and expect plenty more. There’s an election to be won. So there’s going to be a whole lotta turd polishing to be done to sell the legend of how Bullshit Man brilliantly lead us through the darkest days of covid.

    Corporate media sucks.

    Corporate news media, I should say.

  29. Asha,
    Just for the record, Ive never said albo should keep his powder dry, I think fighting all along the way would have been a much better strategy.
    Scomo isn’t as tough as people think, he looks tough in contrast to the opposition’s weakness.

    Children are dying because of COVID, COVID is happening because of Morrison, ipso facto, Morrison is killing kids. Maybe that’s too hardh, but someone should be throwing more fire on all platform about what is happening.

  30. Rossmcg
    “I was no Howard lover but he showed up.”

    I vaguely recall in the lead-up to the 2007 election, Kerry thanking Howard for being available so often on the 7:30 Report, through thick or thin. I thought it was a credit to them both.

    ScoMo prefers to do ‘interviews’ just to get his tummy tickled. After such a dreadful start to 2022, he hasn’t got the cojones to front up to Laura Tingle.

  31. Interesting the way that Smoko is shaping up.

    End of 2019 things were looking fairly good for the Libs/ Off the back of their “miracle” win all was rosy and they were enjoying their rorts until the Bushfires and the massive and comprehensive cock up that was Morriscums response.

    But, then along came Covid to distract everyone (unless of course you are one of those still in a caravan or tent) from that. Which, Morriscum and his let it rip doG will sort it out Fucking Liberals have fucked it up again.

    Add in Climate, Subs, Rorts, Treatment of Women and they have a rolling omni-shambles going that i reckon they hope will keep people confused and disengaged from politics. All moving so fast while we have enough of the media that depends on the Liberal Info Drip for their paychecks they are really playing this aspect hard. Throw in their mate Clive to harvest preferences via the UAP and affiliates and the 2022 election is going to be nasty. Still, i’m up fer nasty if thats what it takes to get rid of these bastards. 🙁

  32. [‘Cases, hospitalisations and deaths

    NSW: 20 deaths and 48,768 cases; 2,576 people in hospital, including 193 in ICU

    Victoria: 23 deaths and 25,526 cases; 1,054 people in hospital, including 115 in ICUs

    Queensland: 6 deaths and 19,709 cases; 649 people in hospital, including 46 in ICUs

    ACT: 0 deaths and 1,320 cases; 30 people in hospital, including 3 in ICU

    SA: 4 deaths and 4,349 cases; 236 people in hospital, including 26 in ICU

    WA: [Yet to be advised]

    NT: 1 death and 412 cases; 32 people in hospital and 0 in ICU

    Tasmania: 0 deaths and 1,139 cases; 22 people in hospital, including 1 in ICU’] – ABC

  33. Nostradamus @ #2868 Saturday, January 15th, 2022 – 1:49 pm

    I doubt that even Morrison would be so foolish to hold separate House & Senate elections. It would reek of desperation.

    [‘Some facts and figures on past elections:

    There have been 50 Federal election events, with 46 elections for the House and 44 for the Senate.

    Of the 50 election events, 40 were joint elections, 32 for the House and half-Senate and another eight House and full-Senate elections. This includes the first election in 1901 and seven double dissolutions. There have also been six House-only elections and four separate half-Senate elections.

    There are only two House elections that don’t pair with a Senate election. The first is the 1929 House-only election when the Bruce government became the only Australian government forced to an election after losing a vote in the House of Representatives. The second was the 1972 election, with the matching half-Senate election set for May 1974 cancelled and replaced by the Whitlam government’s double dissolution.

    There is nothing in the Constitution that requires both elections to be held on the same day, but governments have usually avoid separating the elections. Only Robert Menzies in 1963 has voluntarily chosen to call a House-only election. Menzies called a House only election for December 1963, a year early and at a time when there couldn’t be a half-Senate election. Menzies’ government had been re-elected with only a two seat majority in 1961, and he called the early election to boost his majority by taking advantage of internal divisions in the Labor Party.

    Menzies’ decision put House and Senate elections out of alignment until 1974, setting in train three Senate-only elections (1964, 1967, 1970) and three House-only elections (1966, 1969, 1972). All up there were 11 Federal elections for one or both chambers in the 16 years between 1961 and 1977, plus another two stand-alone referendums. This rush of elections led to state governments adopting four year terms and joint elections in the 1980s, and fixed terms in the decade that followed. Similar moves for changing Federal terms were rejected four times at referendums between 1974 and 1988.

    In 1953 Menzies was also the first Prime Minister to call a separate half-Senate election. The 1951 double dissolution had backdated Senate terms, requiring a half-Senate election for May 1953. Trailing Labor at the time, Menzies chose not to call a House election at the same time, holding the next House election in May 1954. Menzies brought the two elections back into alignment in December 1955 at a time when Labor was bitterly divided, bringing forward the next House election to the same date as the required half-Senate election.

    Malcolm Fraser in 1977 and Bob Hawke in 1984 called early House elections to keep House elections aligned with short half-Senate terms produced by double dissolutions in 1975 and 1983.

    The experience of Coalition governments in the 1960s revealed that voters can treat Senate-only elections as giant by-elections where they can express their views on the government of the day. The political standing of Prime Ministers Harold Holt and John Gorton were damaged by setbacks at Senate elections in 1967 and 1970.

    Government’s have avoided separate elections since the 1960s experience, with all 18 elections since 1974 being joint elections. Five of these were double dissolutions, and the three in 1983, 1987 and 2016 were engineered by governments that wanted an early election, were unable to call a half-Senate election, and unwilling to call a separate House election.’] – Antony Green’s Election Blog.

  34. Justin Langer should be given a contract extension. He’s ticked all the boxes.

    So what if a few players don’t like him. Suck it up or go do something else. The tail should never wag the dog.

  35. ASRC
    @ASRC1
    ·
    16h
    Remember today. Remember that untouchable power @AlexHawkeMP used to cancel #Djokovic visa is a power he could have used to free the 70 refugees in 9 years of detention, grant 20,000 humanitarian places for Afghanistan & let Murugappan family go #hometobilo. He blocks all of it.

  36. Forget the egotistic tennis player. This is a real tragedy. We need people like Mary-Louise.

    Mary-Louise McLaws
    @MarylouiseMcla1
    ·
    7m
    After a severe headache Thursday, I was diagnosed with a brain tumour. I will now be on a month’s sick leave from UNSW and WHO. Thank you media for helping me spread knowledge. Now it is time with my family. Best wishes to you all.


  37. Rossmcgsays:
    Saturday, January 15, 2022 at 1:15 pm
    I always thought Howard enjoyed his one-on-ones with Kerry O’Brien.

    To be the best you have to tackle the best and 15 minutes with O’Brien was as searching an examination as there was.

    I was no Howard lover but he showed up

    I didn’t like Howard Pmship but I agree with you that he didn’t shy away debating with his adversaries. That is one quality I found admirable about Howard.

  38. To those saying Omicron is unmitigable -here is the Adelaide Uni modelling of SA cases with and without the density restrictions brought in on Boxing Day

    Mark McGowan would be watching closely I imagine.

  39. I read the SMH puff piece on Morrison today. Three things stand out.

    1. He organised a photo op of himself welding and managed to burn himself. All image, no execution.
    2. His capacity for hard work and energy levels were mentioned. All in the context of meet and greets and photo-ops. In other words, he has boundless energy for ego trips.
    3. He was asked if had ever had a “dark night of the soul”. He responded of course and goes on to list several crises his government had to deal with. This shows he has no idea what a “dark night of the soul” really is. I wonder if he even has a soul? There seems to be no capability for self-reflection whatsoever.

    Al-in-all, a portrait of man of very little substance who wants power for its own sake.

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