Utting Research WA poll, Morrison leadership ratings and more

“More” being the Liberals’ slow-motion Dobell preselection and declining prospects for a March federal election.

As the silly season reaches its apex, such news and relevant information as I have to offer:

• A poll by Utting Research on federal voting in Western Australia, published yesterday in The West Australian, is broadly in line with other polling from the state in crediting Labor with a lead of 55-45, a swing of 10.5% compared with the 2019 election. The primary votes are Labor 46%, Coalition 39%, Greens 7%, One Nation 3% and UAP 1%. The poll also has Scott Morrison at 28% approval and 46% disapproval (which is quite a bit worse than his 45% approval and 51% disapproval from the state in the last quarterly Newspoll) and Anthony Albanese at 21% and 44%, while Mark McGowan has 75% approval with no disapproval rating provided. The poll was conducted last Wednesday from a sample of 650.

• US pollster Morning Consult’s monthly tracking polling for various international leaders’ personal ratings has Scott Morrison at 43% approval and 51% disapproval, respectively down three and up five on a month ago.

The Australian reports the dispute over the New South Wales Liberal Party’s highly incomplete federal preselection process rumbles on, with St Vincent’s Hospital cardiologist Michael Feneley winning the endorsement of John Howard in his bid for preselection in Dobell – putting him at odds with Scott Morrison, who favours Jemima Gleeson, who owns a chain of coffee shops and a preacher at the HopeUC Pentecostal church in Charmhaven.

David Crowe of the Age/Herald reports that “the Omicron wave has wiped out the idea of a snap election campaign as soon as next month”, hitherto rated “an outside chance for some Liberals who believed it was safer to go to an election in March than to wait until May”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,159 comments on “Utting Research WA poll, Morrison leadership ratings and more”

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  1. Basically your argument griff is because there was no mask mandate between 15 December and 23 December that Perrotet is responsible in full for the Omicron outbreak.

    If that was true – there would be a materially different result in NSW relative to the other States. From the reports this morning of modelling it seems more that NSW will peak earlier than the other States.

    Tell us exactly the difference in outcomes in NSW and Victoria?

  2. Lars Von Triersays:
    Saturday, January 15, 2022 at 12:14 pm

    Federal Liberal and State Liberal are responsible for the entire outbreak.

    The same for Bushfires.

    Btw, what’s happening with the bushfires? Koala’s returned to their former glory yet?

  3. “ Wow!

    Possible full bench Federal Court hearing on a Sunday and only 36 hours after his visa was revoked.

    If only asylum seekers knew how to play tennis! “

  4. SA Liberal Senator Alex Antic has given an interview to the BBC, basically saying that Novax should be allowed to stay and play – despite ScoMo instructing all his parliamentary team to STFU about it.

    Asked if he was vaccinated himself, Antic said ‘That’s a personal matter, a sacred trust between my family and our doctor’.

  5. Griff says:
    Saturday, January 15, 2022 at 11:15 am

    “Its about moving from pandemic to endemic.”(quoting Lars)
    ————-
    Norman Swan made the additional point yesterday that even if this were true (and I accept the expert opinion that says it’s not) it’s largely meaningless. When people make this claim, the premise seems to be that endemic vs pandemic means that endemic COVID would pose a less serious threat to health, but that premise is, according to Swan, and Prof Eddie Holmes, who he was paraphrasing, inaccurate. Smallpox for example was endemic for centuries. Malaria is endemic. People desperately want to believe COVID is done and dusted, but reality will get us every time.

  6. The BBC interviewer asked did Antic’s Serbian roots affect his position on Novax?

    Antic replied, wtte, ‘I’m a full blown Aussie drongo now!’

  7. Lars, are you naive? Or are you just pretending?

    The only comments I made about Debbie Snow’s gender were complimentary, hardly critical. Having said that, most of my comments concerned how she is a product off her upbringing and social class, gender or not.

    You will find very few (especially political) journalists who aren’t. To keep a job doing Long Reads on Politics at 9-Fax, you really do need to be “of the right connections”. Mostly (with some exceptions) the blokes are ugly, and mostly (with fewer exceptions) the ladies are attractive. It’s not Rocket Science why.

    Snow’s articles typically reveal little, or tell her readers anything new when she interviews powerful Tories. If you can find one piece that has ever been more than superficially critical I’ll shout you a McHappy Cheeseburger Meal (regular size). This is because she either won’t or can’t (a bit of both, I suspect) bring herself to go after her own kind. Let’s not kid ourselves that anything harsh against the Liberal Party is ever going to come out of a 9-Fax journalist. Not until they get retrenched, anyway.

    Some of Jordan Shanks’ battles with the young 9-Fax Nicholases and Jemimas are quite illustrative of this.

  8. It says something about Australia’s obsession with sport that this whole affair is still dominating news media at the expense of, well, pretty much everything else going on right now. All this over a tennis player!

  9. “ Basically your argument griff is because there was no mask mandate between 15 December and 23 December that Perrotet is responsible in full for the Omicron outbreak.”

    Fucking liar. THAT’s not what Griff has been saying at all.

    Once again, with feeling, you know the rest.

  10. Endemic vs pandemic, yeah/nah..

    What interests me is this pop culture belief that ‘herd immunity’ is a thing, and if we all just get infected, we will get over it (a few of the weaker herd members may need to be culled).

    With the variants, perhaps even without the variants, this belief appears to be bullshit.

  11. BB you basically frame your assessment in this way:

    Being rather attractive, and exceedingly intelligent, plus academically high-performing, she attracted the interests of the sons of the powerful and wealthy of Canberra, most of whom were called “Roger” with a few “Dereks” thrown in. She was definitely Canberra royalty, marked to go far.

    No one would do that with a male journalist. Think about it.

  12. U.S. COVID update: New cases at record-high, but data suggests a peak is near

    – New cases: 926,693 …………………… – New deaths: 2,786

    – States reporting: 48/50

    – In hospital: 155,527 (+1,396)
    – In ICU: 25,878 (+257)

    871,382 total deaths now

  13. sprocket_ @ #2805 Saturday, January 15th, 2022 – 12:17 pm

    SA Liberal Senator Alex Antic has given an interview to the BBC, basically saying that Novax should be allowed to stay and play – despite ScoMo instructing all his parliamentary team to STFU about it.

    Asked if he was vaccinated himself, Antic said ‘That’s a personal matter, a sacred trust between my family and our doctor’.

    What a flog.

  14. You know, I think I might owe Lars a bit of an apology.

    All this time, I’ve assumed him to be a shallow troll, his online persona expertly devised to piss off as many people on a Labor-dominant website as possible, laughing his ass off behind his computer screen as yet another silly Bludger falls for his bait. But I’m increasingly of the opinion that that isn’t the case at all.

    He’s just an idiot.

  15. BB
    The Deborah Snow interview with Morrison did go into great detail about Morrison and his performance as PM but maybe the reason some people think otherwise reflects that it basically told us what we already know from watching Morrison and from what others have said.

    Morrison appears to tell a lie in that interview

    A question about the ABC gets short shrift. Why has he not gone on 7.30 for so many months? “Well have you watched it each night? It’s hardly an invitation,” he shoots back, implying that it’s politically unfriendly territory. “I don’t need to comment on television programs. I don’t watch them.”

  16. We don’t have “herd immunity” to the common cold or seasonal influenza. Before the measles vaccine there was no herd immunity to measles.

  17. From what I have seen during the two Federal Court hearings last night and this morning, I would not be at all surprised if the court decided against the government. The stance of the government seems to be that because the Minister has the power he can do what he likes. Djokovic’s lawyers made some telling points as to the nature of the minister’s deliberation that may well hold sway.
    We shall see – it will be popcorn either way!

  18. I’ve just read the McGowan article and when even MPs in your own partyroom are calling your Covid approaches ideological, you know it’s more than just a grain of truth.

    “They’ve been more focused on the economy throughout the pandemic and I’m not surprised we’re seeing the numbers we are now because it’s almost as if it’s been an ideological approach to handling public health and you can’t have that.

    “I think the big change, the one that is being noticed in the community, is that Kerry Chant clearly hasn’t been listened to in the way she had been through the first two years of the pandemic.”

    Indeed in the early days of his leadership Perrottet made no secret of the changing approach. When questioned about Chant’s absence at a press conference in October Perrottet replied: “We’re the elected officials … it’s also an economic crisis as well.”

    Later, when indoor mask-wearing rules were scrapped on 15 December, Chant pointedly distanced herself from the decision, calling it a “matter for government”.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jan/15/he-wanted-to-charge-ahead-and-be-the-hero-colleagues-hope-dominic-perrottet-has-learned-from-backflips

    The article also makes the highly plausible case that not only was NSW responsible for Delta spreading across the country, we can also lay omicron firmly at the feet of Perrottet’s government.

  19. Asha:

    I pegged LVT as a blathering moron yonks ago and thus just ignore him now.

    If others choose to engage with a clearly brainless git, that’s their prerogative, but I’ve long since come to the conclusion that such idiocy is undeserving of both my time and attention.

  20. Lars Von Trier @ Saturday, January 15, 2022 at 12:14 pm

    Please do not rephrase my argument as you are getting that incorrect as well. I contend that masks are a mitigation strategy, along with others. Dropping masks was an accelerant, not the only cause. It was also done against health advice.

    As for the difference between Victoria and NSW, the earlier peak, which you admit, is due to NSW rising faster than Victoria, despite higher levels of delta in Victoria prior to December 15. We are lucky that NSW has a better resourced health care system but even now we have nurses that are COVID positive working shifts as a result of a compromised isolation strategy. Needs must when Perrottet drives.

    Stick to politics 😉

  21. Mexicanbeemer @ #2383 Saturday, January 15th, 2022 – 12:32 pm

    Morrison appears to tell a lie in that interview

    A question about the ABC gets short shrift. Why has he not gone on 7.30 for so many months? “Well have you watched it each night? It’s hardly an invitation,” he shoots back, implying that it’s politically unfriendly territory. “I don’t need to comment on television programs. I don’t watch them.”

    So he’s watched it and has formed an opinion about it but he doesn’t watch it.

    OooooooKkkkkkk.

  22. Lars Von Trier @ #2763 Saturday, January 15th, 2022 – 11:29 am

    Here is the press release from the highly regarded Doherty Institute on “opening up”.

    I don’t know about you but I am ok with specialist health advice and our political leaders acting on it.

    https://www.doherty.edu.au/news-events/news/statement-on-the-doherty-institute-modelling

    Dated 23 August. Not worth a pinch of poop, just like every single one of your pustular discharges. You do not know the difference between ‘women’ and ‘woman’, or your and you’re. Your brain power has very severe limitations, as is plain to all who partake here.

    I have been building large mathematical models for tens of years, and continue to do so, for multiple, repeat order, clients. The Doherty release you refer to is full of holes. In particular the parameters and algorithms they use to characterise infection transmission mechanisms appear to me to be far too simple, and unfit for purpose. They had, in August, no way of simulating concurrent delta and omicron epidemics. They have, presumably, tried to fix this by now. Their August 23 screed has NO current applicability.

    You, l’arse, wouldn’t have a clue.

  23. Confessions @ #2385 Saturday, January 15th, 2022 – 12:34 pm

    Asha:

    I pegged LVT as a blathering moron yonks ago and thus just ignore him now.

    If others choose to engage with a clearly brainless git, that’s their prerogative, but I’ve long since come to the conclusion that such idiocy is undeserving of both my time and attention.

    Just another partisan stooge.

    And I can hear the chorus now…Pots and kettles, C@tmomma. 😉

  24. Renae Stubbs, in this interview on CNN, makes a very salient point-when Australians haven’t even been able to cross state borders to see loved ones, they see it as a bit rich that an unvaccinated tennis player should be allowed to cross the national border to come and play tennis:

    https://youtu.be/VRtKCYruMvk

  25. Letting the virus rip has been a complete and utter failure. The health impacts of this are obvious; needless death and illness, health systems buckling under the strain etc. But the idea of opening up and supposedly living with COVID was to get the economy moving again. Well, the opposite has happened. The majority of people did not want this and are voting with their feet and wallets. Even here in the NT, where our case numbers have seemingly for now stabilized in the 500s, Darwin has a lockdown feel. The hospitality industry is dead, with some pubs and clubs now temporarily closing. Retail is dead. I went to Casuarina Square, the main shopping centre here on Thursday, and there was nearly nobody there. My wife works in a shop in the centre, and they have now started reducing their opening hours until things pick up again. So who exactly is this helping? Again, this is not what people wanted. Many people will not forget how their Christmas and new year plans were ruined as Omicron was allowed to take off.

    How this all plays out politically, of course, remains to be seen. But I am struggling to see how it can possibly play well for the federal government. I won’t be surprised if come campaign time, we start to see some interesting leaks around just how much pressure was put on state and territory governments to stick to the plan to open up, whatever happened.

  26. Novak still doing the job Bullshit Man roped him in to do. Hogging the public’s attention bandwidth, squeezing out attention to his governments mismanagement. The pestilent Rum Corp State supposedly hits peak covid cases next week, so only a few days left to fill. After the peak is reached it will be wall to wall Bullshit Man and Feral Stick Insect telling us it shows how brilliant their plan has been and “look its working”

  27. Steelydan at 12:47 pm
    Quite right , the Coalition people feel far more at home in media cesspits like 2GB and Sky After Dark. A chat with friends.

  28. The forecast for Hobart today isn’t exactly encouraging, with afternoon and evening showers, a possible thunderstorm with heavy falls. Another interrupted day seems likely. Similar forecast for Sydney where the BBL is on tonight.

  29. New Muse is good news:

    “‘Won’t Stand Down’ is a song about standing your ground against bullies, whether that be on the playground, at work, or anywhere,” singer Matt Bellamy explained in a statement. “Protecting yourself from coercion and sociopathic manipulation and to face adversity with strength, confidence, and aggression.”

    The video for “Won’t Stand Down” was directed by Jared Hogan and filmed in Kiev, Ukraine.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d55ELY17CFM

  30. Steely

    ‘What is the point of anyone from the coalition going on the ABC.’

    Accountability.

    You know, that thing which is supposedly essential to a functioning democracy.

  31. [‘Djokovic hearing adjourned; court battle goes down to the wire.

    The Federal Court has just adjourned a short hearing in which parties for both Novak Djokovic and Immigration Minister Alex Hawke discussed procedural matters about how the challenge to the visa cancellation will go ahead this weekend.

    All parties agreed to the hearing going ahead tomorrow at 9.30am (Australian Eastern Daylight Time).

    The hearing was fairly administrative, with the only dispute between the parties being whether Djokovic’s case would be heard by a single judge or the full court of three judges.

    If the case is heard by the full court, Mr Hawke will have no avenue to appeal any decision made.

    Justice David O’Callaghan has advised he will make a decision on that matter today.’] – SMH

    It would seem that a full-court hearing the matter is the best way to proceed. My view is that Hawke’s decision will most likely be upheld, but this saga is so full of twists & turns, you wouldn’t want to bet on it. One interesting outcome of a full-court hearing that will probably ensue is: are there any fetters on the ministerial discretion under S.133C(3)? Further, I’m not sure that Hawkes’ justification for revoking Djokovic’s visa on the ground that it has the potential to cause civil unrest is a bit over the top. We shall see.

  32. As we were saying…

    Wendy Bacon
    @Wendy_Bacon
    ·
    50m
    It’s absurd: the #Morrison government is arguing in court that Djokovic is a risk for spreading anti-VAX information when the deputy PM Joyce has been in Qld for a lovein this wk with George Christiansen MP who spreads #COVID conspiracies on a daily basis?

  33. This.

    But the idea of opening up and supposedly living with COVID was to get the economy moving again. Well, the opposite has happened.

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