As the silly season reaches its apex, such news and relevant information as I have to offer:
• A poll by Utting Research on federal voting in Western Australia, published yesterday in The West Australian, is broadly in line with other polling from the state in crediting Labor with a lead of 55-45, a swing of 10.5% compared with the 2019 election. The primary votes are Labor 46%, Coalition 39%, Greens 7%, One Nation 3% and UAP 1%. The poll also has Scott Morrison at 28% approval and 46% disapproval (which is quite a bit worse than his 45% approval and 51% disapproval from the state in the last quarterly Newspoll) and Anthony Albanese at 21% and 44%, while Mark McGowan has 75% approval with no disapproval rating provided. The poll was conducted last Wednesday from a sample of 650.
• US pollster Morning Consult’s monthly tracking polling for various international leaders’ personal ratings has Scott Morrison at 43% approval and 51% disapproval, respectively down three and up five on a month ago.
• The Australian reports the dispute over the New South Wales Liberal Party’s highly incomplete federal preselection process rumbles on, with St Vincent’s Hospital cardiologist Michael Feneley winning the endorsement of John Howard in his bid for preselection in Dobell – putting him at odds with Scott Morrison, who favours Jemima Gleeson, who owns a chain of coffee shops and a preacher at the HopeUC Pentecostal church in Charmhaven.
• David Crowe of the Age/Herald reports that “the Omicron wave has wiped out the idea of a snap election campaign as soon as next month”, hitherto rated “an outside chance for some Liberals who believed it was safer to go to an election in March than to wait until May”.
Lars Von Trier @ Saturday, January 15, 2022 at 11:00 am
“All of the governments decided on opening up (with health advice).”
Lie. They did not follow health advice in NSW and Vic. It is on public record in Vic and we have emails released in NSW.
“Its about moving from pandemic to endemic.”
Wrong. Covid is likely to remain epidemic in nature. Just look at the previous variants and epidemic waves. Wishing and hoping is no substitute for data.
“Unless you wanted endless lockdowns it had to happen and deaths arising where a clearly understood element of the health advice.”
Also wrong. There are other mitigation strategies besides lockdowns i.e. masks (N95 or equivalent), filtration, ventilation, sterilisation of air, social distancing for starters.
“all of our elected leaders (Labor + Liberal) accepted this.”
WA hasn’t. But I agree that other Labor Premiers mostly followed where Morrison and Perrottet led. Thank goodness they didn’t drop masks! Possibly the worst health decision made by an Australian political leader this century.
“Exactly the same thing will happen in WA when they inevitably open up. Im guessing that doesn’t fit your political narrative- but there it is.”
Not if they adopt suitable mitigation strategies.
I know that facts don’t suit your political narrative- and there it really is.
And Raina Macintyre knocks the ‘endemic’ furphy into a cocked hat:
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/opinion/topic/2022/01/15/why-covid-19-will-never-become-endemic/164216520013155
There is actually increasing evidence that regular cloth masks don’t do much to stop the spread of Omicron:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-01-12/omicron-means-its-time-to-upgrade-your-mask/100741812
Re Howard choosing to live at Kirribilli House, it was said that Hyacinth refused to live in the Lodge in Canberra.
Morrison might have chosen Kirribilli for family reasons, since there are three generations living there and he wanted the girls to stay at their happy clapper school.
Another possible reason is that he seems to live apart from the family at lot and the Lodge makes a nice place for him to escape.
Turnbull didn’t want Kirribilli house because of his own house on the harbour.
Abbott was a bit strange, preferring the single life at the AFP college in Canberra.
Love this Boris demo.
https://www.reddit.com/r/PublicFreakout/comments/s44s8v/i_love_this_as_if_one_wasnt_enough/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3
It would appear that the great majority of the more than five hundred (at this time) responses to the Deborah Snow article in the SMH are not from supporters of the Prime Minister.
griff I see your going down the cudchewer road.
At some point we had to move out of a lockdown cycle. Given 50% of people in ICU in NSW are unvaccinated – it really is an epidemic of the unvaccinated.
Should be interesting once WA has its first wave post 5 February.
Also this from Raina Macintyre:
Technically – Abbott didn’t live in the Lodge since it was largely gutted and being renovated during his term.
But given PM&C arranged a house for $3000 per week in Forrest – Abbott then chose the Police College in Barton – but the lease on the house was locked in.
Paul Watt
@pauledwardwatt
·
16h
Rules are rules. Compare the pair: Djokovic and Hillsong.
That’s right blame all…governments you know it makes sense.
But we all know that the lair from the shire ,and dom (let it rip)pedo tray
Instigated this ,because as much as Victoria and Queensland tried to hold back the infected masses coming across the border ,it was a task to great for them.
There’s only 2 people that was shouting open up open up let it rip come what may.
And don’t pretend otherwise………it just insulting ……the ones who have lost loved ones…..oohhh by the way how’s all the nursing homes tracking at present …….suppose nothing to see there either…..
If it a labor government……they’d all have blood on their hands.
So stop with all the wonderful spin of this SHITE government.
For all our sakes.
John Howard living in Kirribilli House showed he was the PM for Sydney not Australia. Even Keating who is extremely Sydneycentric lived in the Lodge. Every Lib PM since Fraser has been from steak and kidney and have had no interest in helping Queensland yet we keep voting for them in disproportionate numbers at least I live in a Labor seat.
Yes, TPOF. I did mean David Crowe. Apologies to David Rowe.
Here is the press release from the highly regarded Doherty Institute on “opening up”.
I don’t know about you but I am ok with specialist health advice and our political leaders acting on it.
https://www.doherty.edu.au/news-events/news/statement-on-the-doherty-institute-modelling
NSW reported 82,000 (PCR) tests today: https://covidlive.com.au/nsw
That’s about half the mid-week test numbers being reported before the system got wobbly. The positivity rate remains about 1/3.
“I did mean David Crowe. Apologies to David Rowe.” Thanks for clearing that up, Stuart.
Lars Von Triersays:
Saturday, January 15, 2022 at 11:29 am
LOL Do you work for them or the minister’s office?
Lars Von Trier @ Saturday, January 15, 2022 at 11:20 am
1. The omicron wave pressured the health care system due to immune escape i.e. those that were double vaccinated were being infected. This is on top of delta circulating at the time as well. Mitigation strategies would have reduced the case rate and consequent hospitalisation rate. Dropping all restrictions including masks led to a mass seeding event, the like of which we have never seen in Australia. Spanish Flu included. We made history and not in a good way.
2. As 50% of ICU admissions were for unvaccinated persons. That means 50% of ICU are in those that are vaccinated. You ignore these people? Health professionals do not.
Stick to politics 😉
Lars Von Trier @ Saturday, January 15, 2022 at 11:29 am
That Doherty statement was prior to omicron being detected.
You really should stick to politics 😉
I would have added corruption, incompetence, and cruelty. But there are so many to choose from.
––––––––
Asha @ #2752 Saturday, January 15th, 2022 – 9:48 am
And use it effectively:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2TTg53aAP8Q
Too much pride..
“Novak Djokovic’s father Srdjan took to social media to send a message of support to his son”
Chris Billington (a statistician) has NSW Daily cases numbers peaking about now and R(eff) below 1, with a rapid drop-off to about 100 cases a day by the end of March. That being said, the numbers up which these projections are based are not as reliable as they were. In any case there would still be hundreds of thousands of cases on the other side of the hill.
We shall see.
https://chrisbillington.net/COVID_NSW.html
LVT
We are in a mess because Morrison was late with the vaccines, late with the booster shots and will not take responsibility for RAT supply.
An unmitigated disaster because of total and complete incompetence.
No amount of bullshit will change that.
Re Lars @11:29.
That paper you linked is dated August 21, 2021. It should be read as dating from pre-Omicron.
Griff, many of the experts have said omicron is basically unmitigatable.
I think there is a fair argument that Australia has had extremely high levels of omicron because we had been locked down and avoided community transmission for the last 2 years. That point was always going to come when we would have to re-open.
The point about the Doherty modelling was at 80% people were still going to die. McGowan justified holding out for 90% because he said less people would die.
The saddest thing in the world is those 50% unvaccinated people asking to be vaccinated once they make ICU given it was most likely preventable if they had taken the vaccine.
Basically societies make choices through their elected leaders. The unspoken truth is the relatively low level of deaths was accepted as the cost/ benefit of opening up. That’s cold comfort for the families of the 29 people who died in NSW yesterday but to put it into perspective approximately 1700 people die every day in Australia of which probably 700 per day die in NSW.
“Debbie” (as we used to call her at ANU Law School) Snow is the daughter of a naval Commander/Admiral. A bit of a radical at uni (who wasn’t?) in the Whitlam ’70s, she has now reverted to her Tory roots.
Being rather attractive, and exceedingly intelligent, plus academically high-performing, she attracted the interests of the sons of the powerful and wealthy of Canberra, most of whom were called “Roger” with a few “Dereks” thrown in. She was definitely Canberra royalty, marked to go far.
That she is still with the SMH shows that she still knows how to behave among the Tory elites. That Morrison granted her a 2 hour interview, demonstrates that she is definitely considered trustworthy, sound and “one of us”.
That the outcome of the interview was not presented until nearly 4 weeks later, and is basically a hagiography disguised as hard-hitting journalism, is unsurprising given the above. Allegedly “nothing was off the table”. The “difficult” questions were bowled up to the PM. And batted away again with pat answers and predictable analysis. Both interviewer and interviewee were simply going through the motions, doing what both of them have done for their entire working lives: conducting cosy chats with friends.
While Debbie scored two searing hours with Morrison, it should be remembered that neither he, nor any other member of his government will give the far more talented and less gullible Laura Tingle even two minutes, a two minutes that Tingle would have used to far greater effect than Debbie’s lazy afternoon with yet another in a long line of powerful Canberra blokes.
All of which proves but one thing: Debbie Snow is no Laura Tingle.
frednk/charles –
people will make their own judgements about vaccines and testing.
Personally I think for a 1 in 100 year global pandemic Australia has done very well in managing it. There are always Monday morning quarterbacks who leap on things for political advantage.
I remember scott/zerlo insisting Australia/Morrison should have had everybody vaccinated in March 2019.
Ultimately in a national election at some point in the next 4 months the electorate will judge amongst other things how effectively the National Government managed covid.
There’s an interesting line in immigration minister Alex Hawke’s reasons for cancelling Novak Djokovic’s visa:
“I consider that Mr Djokovic’s ongoing presence in Australia may lead to an increase in anti-vaccination sentiment generated in the Australian community, potentially leading to an increase in civil unrest of the kind previously experienced in Australia with rallies and protests which may themselves be a source of community transmission.”
This is begging for him to be asked how, then, he feels about Craig Kelly”s and George Christensen’s presence in parliament.
Lars Von Trier at 11:20 am
We can hear your salivating and licking of lips all the way over here in Perth. Be a shame if you were to be disappointed .
Steve777 @ Saturday, January 15, 2022 at 11:40 am
It will be interesting indeed. I think it won’t decrease at the same rate as the increase as mobility picks up. Some links to follow:
Mobility is important to keep an eye on e.g. https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobility/2022-01-11_AU_New_South_Wales_Mobility_Report_en-GB.pdf
and
https://covid19.apple.com/mobility
Bushfire Bill says:
Saturday, January 15, 2022 at 11:47 am
________________________________________
Criticise the person not the gender.
poroti @ #2336 Saturday, January 15th, 2022 – 11:52 am
You could almost call it Deathriding.
BK @ #2335 Saturday, January 15th, 2022 – 11:52 am
Don’t forget the modus operandi of the big guy himself, Clive Palmer.
SoMo & Co humble digs..
Somehow I don’t think humble enough….
Good spot to watch Christ walk trough Sydney Heads though
LVT
So Deborah Snow isn’t female, she’s a thing?
poroti says:
Saturday, January 15, 2022 at 11:52 am
Lars Von Trier at 11:20 am
Should be interesting once WA has its first wave post 5 February.
We can hear your salivating and licking of lips all the way over here in Perth. Be a shame if you were to be disappointed .
_____________________
No not really, I think McGowan holding out for 90% might have been justified as a bit of a WA thing ( I think WA didn’t join the national family law system for decades for example).
Basically notwithstanding the political grandstanding all of the States have ultimately decided to let her rip.
I am forced out of a monastic vow of Bludger silence to express my boundless gratitude for the lucidity and cogency of the many Bludgers who have been providing us with critical information and sound reasoning about the pandemic.
Griff’s contributions have been especially appreciated by me as Septuagenarian Vietnam Vet with vulnerabilities.
Mind how you go, Bludgers.
What ‘benefits’ have their been in the opening up practices actually adopted?
The retail economy in NSW is basically fucked.
The ‘plan’ – viewed as holy writ – envisaged a fair degree of social distancing, mitigation and a heap of planning. None of that happened.
Our logistics supply chain has collapsed. Health workers are treated like conscripted slaves and are at the point of exhaustion.
Whilst omicron spreads like wild fire and no suppression strategy was ever going to work, slowing it down, having basic mitigation strategies in place, sandbagging both our healthcare and logistics supply chains – well the federal government has had two years to get its ducks in a row.
Failure after failure after failure. Always a day late and a dollar short, which is bad enough to endure, but the populous is also heartily sick of the spinners and boosters – like our sealioning parasite L’arse.
By and large ‘we’ the plebs have done the right thing at all stages, but we have been let down by our political leaders and insulted by their spinners. A failure of liassez faire group thought, wrapped inside sheer incompetence and coated with marketing spin. ScoMo, binchook and Domicron to a tee.
Once again, with feeling, fuck off L’arse.
BNO Newsroom
@BNODesk
BREAKING: U.S. reports 926,693 new coronavirus cases in one day, setting world record
Hey Lars Asss.
Mass Murder Legally.
Scott @ #2734 Saturday, January 15th, 2022 – 10:48 am
Because a full bench hearing cannot be appealed, whereas a single judge hearing can.
Yes, Prof. Higgins, agree about Griff. And he does it with wry humour as well. So, he gets the honorary KayJay Koala stamp :
🙂
Lars: ”That point was always going to come when we would have to re-open.”
The point is that the Federal Government:
– thoroughly stuffed vaccine acquisition
– thoroughly stuffed the vaccine rollout, with started late and slow. We eventually caught up but much damaged had been done
– neglected its responsibilities in aged care
– quarantine wasn’t stuffed, but that was only because it wasn’t attempted, with the States being left in default to manage as best they could
– stuffed the booster program, which is late and slow like the original rollout
– ditto kids’ vaccination
– failed to ensure a sufficient supply of RATs
– finally, failed to adjust their plans when Omicron came onto the scene.
Much of the gains brought about by lockdowns and restrictions has been wasted because of the above.
Criminally negligent and incompetent.
BK
Agree with you on the illogicality of Hawke’s decision when there are so many others he should also have criticised. Makes it seems as if Novak is being “picked on”.
@BK:
“ There’s an interesting line in immigration minister Alex Hawke’s reasons for cancelling Novak Djokovic’s visa:
“I consider that Mr Djokovic’s ongoing presence in Australia may lead to an increase in anti-vaccination sentiment generated in the Australian community, potentially leading to an increase in civil unrest of the kind previously experienced in Australia with rallies and protests which may themselves be a source of community transmission.”
This is begging for him to be asked how, then, he feels about Craig Kelly”s and George Christensen’s presence in parliament.”
________
It’s baffling, isn’t it?
Not only do we have our very own, highly resourced, network of anti-vaxx cadres fermenting civil unrest without Novax, one would think that the worst possible way to handle the issue of how Novax’s visa dramas may riff off these lot is to make him a martyr. Which is exactly what the Federal Government has done.
Victoria @ #2706 Saturday, January 15th, 2022 – 9:48 am
What are the odds that bloke spends all morning reading the HUN and getting wound up listening to Neil …?
Just so tragic.
Lars Von Trier @ Saturday, January 15, 2022 at 11:46 am
Your two assertions regarding COVID are incorrect
1. unmitigable is not the same as unable to eliminate. We know the measures that I mentioned i.e. mask and air filtration/ventilation/sterilisation do mitigate transmission. Perrottet failed.
2. the “fair argument” is also largely incorrect. The reason we had such a rapid increase in case rate is due to lack of mitigation. Prior infection with alpha, delta provides very limited protection against infection with omicron. See https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/232698/omicron-largely-evades-immunity-from-past/
That said, I completely agree with your statement regarding politics; “Basically societies make choices through their elected leaders”
We shall see what choices are made next election 🙂
BREAKING: U.S. reports 926,693 new coronavirus cases in one day, setting world record
Divide by 13 —> 71,000 pro-rata equivalent for Australia.
Yesterday’s Australian new cases about 134,000. We’re doing nearly twice as worse as the USA.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #2792 Saturday, January 15th, 2022 – 12:04 pm
So why did he get a visa in the first place if they were so worried about him increasing antivaxx sentiment …?
Typical Morrison Govt incompetence.
Greetings from among the hang gliders on Mt Tamborine.
Layout the canopy up the bank. Face the bank with a handful of strings, back down while lifting the canopy, rotate, run down the bank and liftoff.
Concerning Djokovic, normally duty hearings are normally for things that matter like property evictions at the hands of banks, life preservation by mechanical means or maybe asset hiding by the unscrupulous.
Hopefully it want be used for tennis again.