First up, please note two other important posts above and below this one: the former asking for money, the latter offering an opportunity for on-topic discussion about the Senate election to mark the happy occasion of the publication of my new Senate election guide, complementing the already published seat-by-seat guide to the House.
With that out of the way, three new items of federal election news to ring in the new year:
• State MP Andrew Constance is now effectively confirmed as the Liberal candidate for the key seat of Gilmore on the New South Wales South Coast, which forms a major part of the government’s re-election strategy given its hope that Constance can recover a seat that was lost in 2019. His main rival, Shoalhaven Heads lawyer Paul Ell, withdrew from the race last week, saying he had formed the view that Constance was best placed to win, a view that was backed by a Liberal source quoted in the Sydney Morning Herald based on party polling. Others to withdraw over the past fortnight were Jemma Tribe, a charity operator and former Shoalhaven councillor, and Stephen Hayes, a former RAAF officer and staffer to Christopher Pyne, who said he was concerned he would face Section 44 issues due to his business dealings with the government.
• The Liberal candidate to succeed Christian Porter in the northern Perth seat of Pearce is Linda Aitken, a nurse and Wanneroo councillor who has run unsuccessfully three times for the state seat of Butler. Peter Law of The West Australian reports Aitken won a ballot of local party members ahead of Miquela Riley, a former navy officer who ran unsuccessfully for the state seat of Fremantle in March, by 31 votes to 23. Aitken is a member of the Victory Life Church, founded by tennis champion and noted social conservative Margaret Court. Riley had conservative credentials of her own, with earlier reports suggesting she had support from The Clan, the factional group that achieved notoriety after an extensive WhatsApp discussion between its principals was leaked to the media.
• Elizabeth Henson of The Advertiser reports a uComms phone poll of 828 respondents for the Australia Institute suggested Centre Alliance MP Rebekha Sharkie to be headed for another comfortable win in her Adelaide Hills seat of Mayo, with a 58.5-41.5 lead over the Liberals on two-party preferred, compared with her 55.1-44.9 winning margin over Liberal candidate Georgina Downer in 2019. The primary vote figures quoted are 30.9% for Sharkie, 30.8% for the Liberals, 13.3% for Labor, 7.7% for the Greens, 6.5% for One Nation, 3.3% for the United Australia Party and 3.0% for independents, with the spare 4.5% presumably being undecided. As reported on the Australia Institute website, the poll also found overwhelming support for an integrity commission and truth in political advertising laws.
Basically the federal government is viewing the RATs as if they are medication which have generally not been funded by the government, whereas it is a pathology test which are generally free. This is because they are using the pharmacy network to distribute the RATs and not the health network (doctors and hospitals).
Ven
The covid live site had 13,000 tests for Qld for some reason
https://covidlive.com.au/qld
George Monbiot on Don’t Look Up and how it applies to climate change and the media.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jan/04/dont-look-up-life-of-campaigning
“I am not about pissing off the French people,” the president said in an interview with readers of Le Parisien daily on Tuesday. “But as for the non-vaccinated, I really want to piss them off. And we will continue to do this, to the end. This is the strategy.”
“Oh and that connard from Australie, what’s his appelle? SloMo?
I want to piss him off some more as well. I will continue to do this. This is also the strategy.”
Kevin Rudd has had his say:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jan/05/scott-morrisons-dereliction-of-duty-over-rapid-covid-tests-is-a-threat-to-australians-public-safety
Morrison about to do a free RAT backflip.
Sorry WA. Hotel Quarantine cannot withstand the power of Omicron. Proper air-gapped quarantine facilities just a painful couple of weeks away from being ready. Welcome back to the rest of Autralia in February.
As predicted by some bludgers, Smoko was put in his place yet again by the Labor premiers. When will the dozy bastard ever learn.
So Morrison has spent a week convincing those that hadn’t worked it out; he is a bloody fool.
I guess we can look for to the Grand Announcement re RATS and SfM telling us how their being ‘free’ is due to his efforts.
“Sorry WA. Hotel Quarantine cannot withstand the power of Omicron. Proper air-gapped quarantine facilities just a painful couple of weeks away from being ready. Welcome back to the rest of Autralia in February.”
Not the way you do it in NSW and Victoria, obviously, although most of your problem is delta and we largely swatted it away, hardly any lock down, and the double bonus of almost no visitors from the plague states. Let’s see if omicron is out of the stables in WA or not.
Other than the ‘pork Barilaro’ Monaro walkover in 2019, THAT electorate has been super marginal for decades. In 2015 Bruz beat the previous member Steve Wahn by a 2PP margin of 52.5 to 47.5%. In 2011 Bruz defeated Wahn 52-48.
I reckon there could also be a bit of a Bruz blowback come the byelection given the amount of dirt that is surfacing
So, with all that in mind: has Labor announced that it is contesting the byelection? The last I heard, Minns was fearful of contesting any of these byelections, but by my reckoning Monaro is the only outstanding seat where Labor is yet to announce a candidate.
I reckon that with a good candidate labor has a better chance of winning Monaro in a byelection that any of the other coalition seats that have been vacated. … but for some reason Minns seems especially reluctant to take this one on.
WeWantPaul @ #3261 Wednesday, January 5th, 2022 – 5:18 pm
Oh please do not mistake any glibness for lack of respect. WA and NZ governments are the dream team.
If SfM keeps up the excellent work he’s going to make Billy McMahon look like a colossus of Australian politics
Will he deny he ever opposed free RATs? Always good to see another backflip after pushing his case so hard in the media for everybody pays and that “not everything can be free”.
So is tomorow’s Headline, RATFLIP!
Pre Tump I would have agreed Don’t Look Up was over the top, ridiculous, unrealistic.
But after Trump and now all the Covid denial stuff, I am not so sure!!
It is alarming to me how that I can find that movie believable, kind of like Idiocracy but a bit less crude.
When will the dozy bastard ever learn.
You do have to wonder. It’s not like it wasn’t completely obvious that his position was ‘courageous’ as Sir Humphrey would say.
He’ll be working overtime to pretend he didn’t say what he said about not making them free, and hey the Australian might even write some editorials claiming he always was going to supply them free and they never not once wrote an editorial saying people should pay for them.
But this was a completely voluntary kick in the crutch.
Morrison, ‘Let them eat RATs.’
10 free RATs over 3 months is far too stingy for low paid workers who have to demonstrate they are negative before each shift, especially care workers working in patients homes
If they are casual, they are responsible for getting their test
‘Greensborough Growler says:
Wednesday, January 5, 2022 at 5:22 pm
So is tomorow’s Headline, RATFLIP!’
=======================
Good one, GG!
If SfM keeps up the excellent work he’s going to make Billy McMahon look like a colossus of Australian politics
Both of Scotty’s predecessors in the post have rehabilitated McMahon’s reputation to a great degree. Why shouldn’t the current PM seek to build on their successes?
“Oh please do not mistake any glibness for lack of respect. WA and NZ governments are the dream team.”
We were having this conversation on a work channel, we are all quite concerned it is out and praying to whatever deities or forces we could think of. Largely because on the whole for most of us there has been little disruption over the last two years (if one excludes ones desire for interstate and international travel) it will be very easy for 2022 to be our toughest year by far.
i don’t know how people did masks in the office for weeks or months, I’m ready to kill colleagues after about 2 hours
“10 free RATs over 3 months is far too stingy for low paid workers who have to demonstrate they are negative before each shift, especially care workers working in patients homes
If they are casual, they are responsible for getting their test”
I am both unsurprised and dismayed employers aren’t paying for these.
Hmm…need to be a close contact or symptomatic as per the Guardian. Close contact as redefined. That shall prove “interestin” to align accross States and Territories.
RAT a tat tat. Morrison is grandmas pussy cat. Where is your money? In my pocket. Where is your pocket? I forgot it. Oh he really is a silly cat.
Jason Yat Sen Li is very impressive. He has the potential to achieve high office either in NSW State politics, or at a Federal level if he makes that move later on. He has a nuanced perspective on the Australia-China relationship. Sometimes people who are described that way in essence think we should largely accommodate the PRC for pragmatic and strategic reasons, but when I heard Jason YSL speak about it, his view was more sophisticated than that.
In the UK:
Heart attack patients told ‘get lift’ to hospital as Covid ‘tsunami’ pushes NHS to brink
More than a dozen hospitals have declared critical incidents due to rising admissions and staff shortages. Ambulance bosses have asked potential heart attack victims to get a taxi or a lift to A&E
“ Both of Scotty’s predecessors in the post have rehabilitated McMahon’s reputation to a great degree. Why shouldn’t the current PM seek to build on their successes?”
Comment of the day.
Lest we forget Lucieneye and the Tonser.
I want to stress at the start as we confirm today that tests for close contacts and those who are symptomatic, they are free. I have always been free. They are the essential tests that are required for public health management. These other tests that are recommended by the medical expert panel, the AHPPC. Those other tests that they say must be done.
“I further want to stress that what I said in the past was alterable. What I have said in the past has never been altered. RATS are at war with Eastasia. RATS have always been at war with Eastasia.
lauding MacGowan for “looking at NSW and doing the exact opposite” is fair
not condemning Andrews for looking at NSW (a couple of weeks down the curve) and doing pretty much the exact same… feels odd?
on federal rules re unvaxxed entries, would it be Peter Dutton frogmarching Novak back on the plane… i’d pay good money to see that. The idea that Vic govt endorsed his entry for fed govt to overrule would be some kind of irony
We’re also to agree with the industry that we will have some anti- hoarding provisions put in place by the retail sector where you can buy only one at a time. The boxes come in at the boxes of 25. You can buy one. That is what you can do. They will be administered and monitored by the retail industry themselves and many of them are already doing that right now. It includes the supermarkets where they already have those rules in place.
SfM announces new RATs purchase verification system….
Ven @ #2897 Wednesday, January 5th, 2022 – 7:11 am
How about the question of the content of his character?
When is the mainstream media going to take a good hard look at that?
Before or after the election?
Previous comment directed at media, not Ven. 🙂
max,
‘ Jason Yat Sen Li is very impressive. He has the potential to achieve high office either in NSW State politics, or at a Federal level if he makes that move later on. He has a nuanced perspective on the Australia-China relationship. ’
I was one of those helping him during his election campaign against John Alexander. I really liked him and was disappointed he wasn’t elected .
I would argue that case numbers are already “far less meaningful” as it is.
It’s going to be interesting to see how much of Scotty’s bullshit survives the Premier’s clarifications.
As I’m going to Hobart next week I am interested to see the details on the announcement that a RAT will no longer be required. ScoMo’s crap is hard to parse at the best of times but it looks like it might be a case of doing a RAT on arrival. Which is fine and dandy except I can’t see much point in going all the way to Tassie to sit locked in a room if I happen to pick up the virus in the hours before departure and then going home whilst still positive a few days later. A problem I wouldn’t be looking at facing if it was possible to get a test prior…
Think I’ll keep my booked PCR test appointment until there’s a lot more clarity.
Am reading that McGowan did not front at National Cabinet today.
Pretty big FU to Morrison if true.
OHS ? Who needs it ?
.
Morrison has continued, saying that he has tasked the Attorney General and the development minister from each jurisdiction to work out a way around “the obligations of employers in relation to their occupation and health and safety obligations.”
Alluding to testing requirements, and the pressures it is placing on workplaces, especially critical places such as aged care faciltiies, Morrison said the new isolation requirements may be extended:
Employers are concerned that under those OHS rules that they have to require their staff to be tested in order to meet those obligations. We will be working to ensure that that obligation will not be required.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2022/jan/05/australia-covid-live-update-national-cabinet-rapid-test-novak-djokovic-tennis-vaccine-australian-open-rapid-antigen-tests-rats-nsw-victoria-qld-ashes#:~:text=General%20and%20the-,development,-minister%20from%20each
this basically means the published case numbers each day (of PCRs) are going be FAR less meaningful now, right?
They’re already as good as meaningless in NSW. Thousands of people are being turned away from testing every day. Thousands more are not even bothering to try to get tested. Victoria is probably at or close to the same point and other jurisdictions (except WA) will get there sooner than later.
When you let er rip, you let er rip.
Am reading that McGowan did not front at National Cabinet today.
NSW went.
ref rule 1.
lizzie @ #3231 Wednesday, January 5th, 2022 – 3:02 pm
Lame attempt at a Churchillian style? Or, “Its too late now.”
ratsak @ #3269 Wednesday, January 5th, 2022 – 4:22 pm
Only painful if he had any.
Re Andrew_Earlwood at 5.19 pm
The key difference between Bega and Monaro is in the Lib and Nat candidates. Nichole Overall, the Nat candidate in Monaro, is the wife of the recently retired Mayor of Queanbeyan-Palerang, which covers the northern and most populous part of the electorate. The southern part, around Cooma, is more conservative, so Labor’s chances would be better in the northern part, but Overall may be able to limit the swing there. That fact, plus the bigger margin (11.6% in Monaro compared to 7% in Bega) in that seat means Labor’s chances in Bega are much stronger.
Another factor is the exhaustion of preferences under the optional NSW system introduced by Wran.
See figures for Monaro at: https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/nsw/2022/guide/monaro
Only 57% of Green preferences went to Labor in 2019, and that was with a strong Green candidate. If Wran’s foolish system applied federally, Labor’s chances of getting to 76 seats would be much less.
Antony Green does not have a similar preference flow table for Bega to that for Monaro linked above.
From the NSW Electoral Commission website, it looks like the exhaustion of preferences rate in Bega was similar to that in Monaro, where Green’s table shows that nearly 44% of preferences exhausted.
This means that, unless there is a common and overwhelming factor linked to the great NSW Covid stuff-up of 2021-22, Labor’s chances are significantly stronger in Bega. This is because, with such a large exhaustion rate, it is much easier to overcome a 7% margin than a margin of 11.6%.
Thanks Dr. D. If Labor did win both Holsworthy and Bega but no change in Strathfield/Willougby/Monaro, the parliament becomes LNP 44, ALP 38, Greens 3, SFF3, Independents 3, ex-Libs 2. Interesting numbers-Perrottet would then need the SFF for a majority on the floor of the house, not just the ex-Libs. Not an ideal position. But great for Labor federally to have an aging Covid-damaged minority LNP government in NSW when the federal poll is held, given the swag of Labor marginals in NSW.
There was some discussion – perhaps on the Project a few nights ago – about the fact that in the UK, their RAT distribution includes a data collection system so you go online after you’ve done the test, scan a QR code on the box and record whether you had a positive or negative test result from the RAT, and this is collected as part of the case number statistics. The question being asked was why this was being done in the UK but seems to not even be on the radar here.
Just part of the whole seeming lack of any forethought applied to the long-expected transition to RATs.
So, published numbers are now meaningless. RAT not required for interstate travel except in W.A.
Basically let it rip over the whole country. 🙁 Shit. 🙁
Twitter of the day:
Seems like the ship is deserting the sinking RATs.
The Liar says Jen drives around looking for RAT tests – huge if true..
Will there be two lines at Covid testing stations – one for PCR and the other for RATs?