First up, please note two other important posts above and below this one: the former asking for money, the latter offering an opportunity for on-topic discussion about the Senate election to mark the happy occasion of the publication of my new Senate election guide, complementing the already published seat-by-seat guide to the House.
With that out of the way, three new items of federal election news to ring in the new year:
• State MP Andrew Constance is now effectively confirmed as the Liberal candidate for the key seat of Gilmore on the New South Wales South Coast, which forms a major part of the government’s re-election strategy given its hope that Constance can recover a seat that was lost in 2019. His main rival, Shoalhaven Heads lawyer Paul Ell, withdrew from the race last week, saying he had formed the view that Constance was best placed to win, a view that was backed by a Liberal source quoted in the Sydney Morning Herald based on party polling. Others to withdraw over the past fortnight were Jemma Tribe, a charity operator and former Shoalhaven councillor, and Stephen Hayes, a former RAAF officer and staffer to Christopher Pyne, who said he was concerned he would face Section 44 issues due to his business dealings with the government.
• The Liberal candidate to succeed Christian Porter in the northern Perth seat of Pearce is Linda Aitken, a nurse and Wanneroo councillor who has run unsuccessfully three times for the state seat of Butler. Peter Law of The West Australian reports Aitken won a ballot of local party members ahead of Miquela Riley, a former navy officer who ran unsuccessfully for the state seat of Fremantle in March, by 31 votes to 23. Aitken is a member of the Victory Life Church, founded by tennis champion and noted social conservative Margaret Court. Riley had conservative credentials of her own, with earlier reports suggesting she had support from The Clan, the factional group that achieved notoriety after an extensive WhatsApp discussion between its principals was leaked to the media.
• Elizabeth Henson of The Advertiser reports a uComms phone poll of 828 respondents for the Australia Institute suggested Centre Alliance MP Rebekha Sharkie to be headed for another comfortable win in her Adelaide Hills seat of Mayo, with a 58.5-41.5 lead over the Liberals on two-party preferred, compared with her 55.1-44.9 winning margin over Liberal candidate Georgina Downer in 2019. The primary vote figures quoted are 30.9% for Sharkie, 30.8% for the Liberals, 13.3% for Labor, 7.7% for the Greens, 6.5% for One Nation, 3.3% for the United Australia Party and 3.0% for independents, with the spare 4.5% presumably being undecided. As reported on the Australia Institute website, the poll also found overwhelming support for an integrity commission and truth in political advertising laws.
I’m stumped trying to imagine how we are all going to be voting come election time if some Variant of Covid is raging like an out of control bushfire. Do we have to socially distance as we line up outside the polling place and form queues as long as a NSW testing queue now? Do we socially distance the voting booths inside the polling place? How much longer will this make things take? Will party workers be able to hand out How To Votes or will it be like the Council elections where that wasn’t allowed? (Not a bad thing, imho) So will this lead to not everyone being able to vote who is eligible to vote? Do we need a mail in vote provided for every eligible elector? (Not with any party branding) Do we choose polling places with the best ventilation? Are people with diagnosed Covid and their Close Contacts, allowed to leave their homes to vote and how many will that be by election day?
So many questions. And I’m pretty sure Scott Morrison hasn’t addressed any of them yet.
In fact, the ALP PB High Council of Sprocket, AE and C@t might be required to put out a statement re Novak in order to calm the Stooges.
phoenixRED @ #2750 Wednesday, January 5th, 2022 – 12:46 pm
Yes! Hitting Trump where it hurts. In the media coverage.
Griff @ #2746 Wednesday, January 5th, 2022 – 12:43 pm
No. nath’s sock puppet was Michael with a capital ‘M’.
WeWantPaul @ #3098 Wednesday, January 5th, 2022 – 12:43 pm
To be fair, many governments did have pandemic response plans that were followed by and large. The issue was there were designed for influenza. The same cognitive fault as opening up for delta and ignoring omicron i.e. failure to change decisions as a result of new data.
ratsak, welcome back(?).
If I may summarise.
(1) Morrison has two core instincts and one core belief. His core belief is in himself. His core instincts are first to ignore or hide any problem, and if that doesn’t work to make it someone else’s to solve. Job done. It’s his way of making everyone else solve out he can’t. We see it currently in the way he belatedly and grudgingly hands out money for RATs.
(2) Yes, prediction is a mugs game, but Frydenberg and Dutton can’t win. Morrison despite ruinous decisions will take them to the election, and lose.
Did I come close?
Dog’s Brunch says:
Wednesday, January 5, 2022 at 9:37 am
Adam Liaw
@adamliaw
Guys, it’s important to note we don’t *know* Djokovic got an exemption because he’s a famous tennis player. It might have just been because he’s rich
————————————
Nothing to do with him being rich because most of the top tennis players are wealthy but the exemption is because Djokovic is the world number 1 and defending champion and a known anti-vaxxer.
“To be fair, many governments did have pandemic response plans that were followed by and large. The issue was there were designed for influenza. The same cognitive fault as opening up for delta and ignoring omicron i.e. failure to change decisions as a result of new data.”
That is interesting the initial Federal and State responses didn’t seem informed by a plan, but maybe the doubt about the nature of the pandemic contributed to that. But given the months of warning we had, the ‘sit still and wait, and do nothing, and the then go to the football when it gets here’ response seemed to be ignoring the plan and the known facts.
Even WA wasn’t out in the lead, we were just lucky we were infected last and least when the first lockdown hit.
nath and larse. Your aim in giving my scroll finger RSI has been achieved. Congratulations.
C@tmommasays:
Wednesday, January 5, 2022 at 12:12 pm
Themunz @ #2706 Wednesday, January 5th, 2022 – 11:52 am
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/what-s-the-plan-australia-needs-to-prepare-for-the-collapse-of-american-democracy-20220103-p59llh.html#comments
A thought provoking article asking a very big question.
The debate we need to have.
You might be interested in listening to this podcast:
https://podcast.thebulwark.com/evan-osnos-hardening-the-hard-core
Just had a listen and felt that the belief in “American exceptionalism” is so pervasive to be dangerous.
A bit like Morrison’s belief in miracles.
pritu @ #2759 Wednesday, January 5th, 2022 – 12:54 pm
You could just install C+ and block them. Problem solved. 🙂
Jeez the Liberals must have some dire internal federal polling for Victoria. 😀
I suspect SfM’s hope was to call an election on 27 Jan, to be held early March. I think the odds of that are now basically zero. By 27 Jan, the Omicron wave will be resulting in record deaths as well as record cases, and it will become increasingly obvious that the booster rollout is a failure (38% of those who have had 2 doses are eligible for their third, while only 12% of those people have had their third dose). Either that’s a failure of supplies, or a failed marketing campaign from the gov. Either way, SfM will wear the blame for the second strollout.
He’s had several “will call the election on this date if 2PP is above X” chances. And due to mismanaging the pandemic response, none of those chances have been viable.
Labor have the advantage of polling on their side, as well as the “it’s time” factor. The Coalition’s one advantage was getting to choose the date. But now there’s only May left open to them. Unless they split the house and senate, but that would backfire massively.
It’s possible that by a May election, people will be happy that we are living with covid. But I doubt it. By that stage, virtually every voter will have attended (or been forced to miss) a funeral for a friend or relative. Voters have short memories for politicians lying, committing fraud etc. But not this.
Itzadream – as a PS to the previous War and Peace post (sorry); on the other comment I mentioned from Swan that I found really interesting – namely that in his view the pandemic has spun out of control due to the existence of populist right wing governments in key nations – as I recall Swan made that observation in the Conversations podcast, and not the Big Ideas one I linked to.
C@tmomma @ #3103 Wednesday, January 5th, 2022 – 11:47 am
BLOTUS: Biggest Loser Of The USA
Frankly, the guy has dropped off the front page for me. I think I only follow his antics out of habit these days.
nath @ #3094 Wednesday, January 5th, 2022 – 12:37 pm
Wow this is the twilight zone today.
Given the AO is in Victoria who did you expect to establish an Independent panel of medical experts ?? Health Hazzard ???
So the Vic Gov established the Independent panel. It’s their job !!
I mean seriously !!
The Duke of York’s attempt to dismiss Giuffre’s tortious suit has not impressed the judge hearing it:
[‘A US judge has appeared sceptical of a bid by Prince Andrew to dismiss Virginia Giuffre’s lawsuit accusing the Duke of York of sexually abusing her when she was 17 and being trafficked by the late financier Jeffrey Epstein.
During a hearing in Manhattan, US District Judge Lewis Kaplan heard arguments on the prince’s contention that terms contained in a 2009 settlement between Epstein and Giuffre that paid her $US500,000 ($A693,939) to resolve a lawsuit she had filed against the financier prevented her from pursuing litigation against Andrew.
A provision in that settlement blocked Giuffre from suing certain third parties in the future, with language to “forever discharge” various people who “could have been included as a potential defendant” in her resolved lawsuit against Epstein.
Settlements of US civil lawsuits can restrict plaintiffs from pursuing further litigation, even against third parties.
Andrew has denied Giuffre’s accusations that he forced her to have sex more than two decades ago at the London home of former Epstein associate Ghislaine Maxwell, and abused her at two other Epstein properties.
At the hearing, the prince’s Los Angeles-based lawyer Andrew Brettler said Queen Elizabeth’s second son was shielded from Giuffre’s lawsuit under the terms of the settlement with Epstein, who did not admit liability.’]
https://inqld.com.au/news/2022/01/05/judge-sceptical-of-prince-andrews-push-to-dismiss-sex-abuse-lawsuit/
In the Royal Family’s popularity stakes, Andrew recently recorded a meagre 10% likeability, the harm he’s causing to “The Firm” most likely leading to a permanent stay in Coventry. Stripped of many official posts and dropped by some fifty charities, this pompous, entitled man has done his dash even if the US Court upholds his attempt to avoid accountability.
SA records 3,493 new Covid cases. There are 125 people in hospital, 12 in intensive care, one is on a ventilator.
Andrews problem is he went on record that the players needed to be vaccinated so indirectly he owns this decision even if the final decision was made by Canberra.
Mexicanbeemer says:
Wednesday, January 5, 2022 at 1:06 pm
Andrews problem is he went on record that the players needed to be vaccinated so indirectly he owns this decision even if the final decision was made by Canberra.
________________
Andrews created the loophole by implementing an independent panel. Did not the government hold a veto power?
Mexicanbeemer @ #3123 Wednesday, January 5th, 2022 – 1:06 pm
That’s nearly the funniest take yet ! 😆
nath @ #3124 Wednesday, January 5th, 2022 – 1:08 pm
It was due process to establish the independent panel , unless you wanted him personally to decide in true Dictator Dan style ..?? 😆
Andrews was very strong on not letting un vaccinated players getting in. So he was either being duplicitous or completely incompetent at doing what he promised.
Nath
Independent panel is just a buck passing measure to give politicians cover and there has been a lot of argument around the Australian Open and its Novak problem because other players have skipped because they were unvaccinated.
nath @ #3097 Wednesday, January 5th, 2022 – 12:43 pm
Nath and L’arse right into the circular arse sniffing and licking, on cue. Sad, but sick-funny all the same.
L’arse, you have ZERO credibility. You have, today, revealed yourself to be a barefaced apologist for pure, unadulterated bastardry.
nath, you are just incoherent. You forget which non-sequitur you are not following.
Liberté, égalité, fraternité…
Macron declares his Covid strategy is to ‘piss off’ the unvaccinated
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/04/macron-declares-his-covid-strategy-is-to-piss-off-the-unvaccinated
Rex Douglas at 1:10 pm
Fill an ‘independent’ panel with ‘the right people’ and by golly it’s amazing how often they come up with the ‘right’ decisions.
Mexicanbeemer @ #3128 Wednesday, January 5th, 2022 – 1:11 pm
I think you blokes should explain who then should decide exemptions if you’re not satisfied with an independent panel …?
poroti @ #3131 Wednesday, January 5th, 2022 – 1:15 pm
So then which of the panel members are stooges ..??
Rex
There is nothing wrong with independent panels except they rarely make decisions the government disagrees with.
Ven wrote “Ok let us discuss other countries, which implemented ‘socialism’.
What is U.S.S.R.? Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. Look how it turned out implementing So called ‘Socialism’ or
Yugoslavia.”
Clearly you have not heard of democratic socialism, clearly you have not heard of the Clement Attlee, clearly you have not heard of the NHS. What a twerp you are.
Rex
Its not about being stooges but what happens is these panels give weight to the government’s submissions and the government appoints people to these panels that are aligned with it.
Mexicanbeemer says:
Wednesday, January 5, 2022 at 1:17 pm
Rex
There is nothing wrong with independent panels except they rarely make decisions the government disagrees with.
________
Agreeing with what the government wants is a good way of getting another gig on an independent panel!
G’day ‘Riser
Frydenberg and Dutton can’t win.
Thought exactly the same about Abbott and Morrison. To a lesser extent about Turnbull.
I was wrong.
Thought the same about Trump too.
I was wrong.
Basically on the right you can be a complete fucking incompetent, but the majority of the media will cover that up as best they can for as long as they can to help you win when you have no business even being in the contest. (Boris Johnson sends his regards)
Usually after a few years the sheer weight of the incompetence will become so obvious the media can no longer hide it, but usually you’ll be replaced by an equally or even more incompetent buffoon (Boris again sends his regards) but the media will again cover that up and focus all their attention on the opposition.
Dutton and Frydenberg are pretty incompetent, but no more incompetent than Abbott, Turnbull or Morrison. It would be a piece of piss for the media to write up glowing stories of how the government was back on track and the new competent leader was here to replace that buffoon Morrison, and hey look Albo’s odds on to win so we’d better really put his feet to the fire (and just conveniently forget again that the government is actually the government and has a track record that should be examined).
I don’t believe any Liberal leader is in a definitive ‘can’t win’ position in Australian Federal politics. Those of us who vividly remember the Hawke-Keating governments and the way they tossed aside opposition leaders need to recognise that period was an aberration and that the status quo is that whoever is leading the Liberals has a damn good chance of winning the next election.
nath @ #3137 Wednesday, January 5th, 2022 – 1:19 pm
Except that Andrews is quoted as saying he did not want antivaxxers given exemptions, so the panel went against his wishes.
Fair dinkum you blokes are all over the shop ! 😆
Jaeger @ #2777 Wednesday, January 5th, 2022 – 1:13 pm
I think that’s the only logical position to take. It also forces his political opponents for the Presidency to show their hands when it comes to the scientifically incoherent and illiterate.
Rex
Except that Andrews is quoted as saying he did not want antivaxxers given exemptions, so the panel went against his wishes.
Fair dinkum you blokes are all over the shop
———————————
What politicians say publicly and what the government does is not always the same.
Tennis Australia VicHealth and Canberra have been in talks for months and the panel would have looked at the submissions and made its decision on that.
RD
I would not have a clue. I was just reminding you that taking the independence of such ‘Independent panels’ as a given was ‘dead buried and cremated’ back in the days of The Rodent.
Mexicanbeemer says:
Wednesday, January 5, 2022 at 1:26 pm
Rex
Except that Andrews is quoted as saying he did not want antivaxxers given exemptions, so the panel went against his wishes.
Fair dinkum you blokes are all over the shop
———————————
What politicians say publicly and what the government does is not always the same.
________________
Also, I highly doubt that the government dispensed with ministerial overrule. They could keep him out if they wanted to.
Frankly, the guy has dropped off the front page for me.
I suspect the Dems will hope Donald isn’t going anywhere anytime soon.
He is probably their very best hope of retaining control of congress. No doubt Trump motivates a big section of the Repubs base. It’s just he inspires antipathy even more. Basically if the Dems can get the idea that democracy is at stake to take hold in Nov they’ll motivate enough voters to hold congress. Having Donald Trump front and centre and clearly the leader of the Republican party will help that cause no end.
Trump will be looking to make that election all about him. The Republicans look like they might be crazy enough to help him. The Democrats will want to do everything they can to help them both achieve this.
Mexicanbeemer @ #3141 Wednesday, January 5th, 2022 – 1:26 pm
Do you think it’s possible that the Independent panel didn’t agree with a Vic Govt submission that anti-vaxxers should be barred as Andrews as quoted as saying ..??
Give it up Rex.
You are embarrassing yourself.
Basically on the right you can be a complete fucking incompetent, but the majority of the media will cover that up as best they can for as long as they can to help you win when you have no business even being in the contest.
I was just thinking along these lines myself. That the Opposition are covered as carping and shrill, not worthy of the most basic respect that should be accorded to people who have been duly elected by our fellow citizens to be their voices on the national stage.
Whereas, the Coalition government are covered with the respect expected by the people running the country. Even when the Coalition backflip or screw up royally, the coverage usually has an overlay of they had to do it, and sensible they were TO do it, as circumstances changed. No mention of the obvious scenario that they were the ones who screwed things up and necessitated the change.
Which inevitably leads to, ‘the Coalition are the natural party of government’ malarkey, by all concerned.
Independent panel isn’t a good enough excuse. There’s no valid reason to give anyone an exemption to come play tennis, so why do we need a panel to check each individual request? Australia recognises half a dozen covid vaccines. It’s certainly feasible that some people may be at high risk of complications from 1 covid vaccine brand, but all of them? If it’s 1 person in a million at high risk from A-Z, and 1 person in a million from pfizer, we are talking one in a trillion at high risk from both. Add in 4 more vaccines that you need to be at risk from and that’s a lot of zeros.
They should have established an independent panel to assess claims. Not to grant any exemptions, but to create a list of doctors that need to lose their medical licence for signing fraudulent paperwork and a list of tennis players who should be forever denied a visa on character grounds.
Note, where I use the term ‘people’ above, I guess I mean ‘professional athletes”. Don’t give me some example of a 100 year old using an iron lung to breathe who maybe can’t get any covid vaccine.
poroti @ #3142 Wednesday, January 5th, 2022 – 1:28 pm
So tell me a better process than an establishing an independent panel to establish exemptions ..??
Taylormade @ #3142 Wednesday, January 5th, 2022 – 1:31 pm
I guess you’re a good judge of that. 😐
Not that I agree with your opinion about Rex Douglas. 🙂
Taylormade @ #3146 Wednesday, January 5th, 2022 – 1:31 pm
I could sense you were lurking in the background. 😆
Maybe you could assist poroti in offering a better way of dealing with exemptions that distances Dictator Dan from making the calls …?
Don’t be shy !! …let’s hear it ..??
Rex
That can happen but we don’t know what submissions were given.
Incredible coincidence that such a well known anti vaxxer is now diagnosed with a medical condition able to get an exemption.
I wonder how hard it would be for Serbia’s national hero to find a Serbian doctor willing to play ball?
Mexicanbeemer @ #3152 Wednesday, January 5th, 2022 – 1:38 pm
But we’ve all made up our minds that it’s Dans fault !!