Morgan: 53.5-46.5 to Labor

The fortnightly Roy Morgan poll adds another increment to the rise of “others”, while Scott Morrison’s personal ratings take a knock in Essential Research.

The fortnightly Roy Morgan poll records little change on a fortnight ago, with Labor’s two-party lead at 53.5-46.5, in from 54-46. Both major parties are unchanged on the primary vote, the Coalition at 36.5% and Labor at 35%, with the Greens down two to 11.5% and One Nation down half to 3%. The “others” vote is accordingly up two-and-a-half points to 14%, which is two points higher than in any previous Morgan polls this term. See Mark the Graph for a poll trend that shows how the others vote has ascended by about four points since the start of July – BludgerTrack (freshly updated here) doesn’t feature a trendline for others, which is perhaps something I should look at.

Morgan’s two-party state breakdowns have Labor down since last fortnight by two points in New South Wales, one-and-a-half in Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia and half a point in Tasmania, but up by nine points in South Australia, no doubt reflecting the vagaries of small sub-sample size. Labor leads by 53.5-46.5 in New South Wales, for a swing of around 5.5%; 55-45 in Victoria, around 2%; 53.5-46.5 in Western Australia, around 9%; 57.5-42.5 in South Australia, around 7%; and 57.5-42.5 in Tasmania, around 1.5%. The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 2723.

Also out this week was the fortnightly Essential Research poll, which happily included the pollster’s monthly leadership ratings. These suggested that Scott Morrison’s rocky time in Glasgow may have done him some damage, with his approval rating down six to 48% and disapproval up five to 42%, while Anthony Albanese is respectively down one to 40% and up one to 35%. However, this hasn’t flowed through to preferred prime minister, on which Morrison leads 44-28, compared with 45-29 a month ago. Thirty-four per cent said they believed the government deserved to be elected, down two since the question was last asked in August, with 45% signing on for the alternative proposition that it was “time to give someone else a go”, up four.

The poll also finds 47% believe Scott Morrison has undermined Australia’s international reputation compared with 27% who believe he has enhanced it, with 54% rating a good international reputation as important and 39% rating it fairly important. An occasional question on trust in the parties to handle various issues, which interestingly finds the Coalition has taken a knock since September on national security, their lead over Labor down from 13% to 6%, and maintaining international relations, on which a 5% lead has turned into a 3% deficit. Movement on the other issues is slight but mostly negative for the Coalition.

There is better news for the government on COVID-19 management, which is rated good by 48% and poor by 29%, respectively up two and down two on a fortnight ago, and in both cases the best result the government has had since early June. From small state sub-samples, the Victorian government’s good rating is up from 43% to 56%, New South Wales is steady on 57% and Queensland is up three to 62%.

There are also questions on carbon emissions which you can see in the full report. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1089.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

970 comments on “Morgan: 53.5-46.5 to Labor”

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  1. “ Tony Abbott’s strategic vision to partner with Japan, with deep US involvement, in acquiring modern, conventional submarines was right in terms of submarine capability, but also, more important, on deeper strategic grounds.”

    What a fool Sheridan is: Japan is a North Asian country with the strategic interests of North Asia: how it assesses and deals with China is fundamentally different to our strategic interests, sitting as we do at the others end of the East Asian hemisphere with Indonesia and the Air-Sea gap separating us. If one looks closely and dispassionately at who are the important countries (as in the ones with heft) that are mostly likely to share the closest strategic interests with Australia in of neck of the woods in the whole Asia Pacific, then we cant look past Indonesia and France (a country that has 2 million of its citizens in the region, a very large maritime EEZ and also a rather large air-sea gap to China as well): – the country that offers the best – and currently only oceanic – SSK and the most modern SSN (were we to go down the nuclear propulsion path). We have truly cut off our right hand with our left, haven’t we?

  2. As I told Mavis, Matt Kean is the new designated Bambi, put up by the LNP for their adjacent media to fawn over: a marketing scam.

    “ Alexandra Smith writes that Matt Kean represents the youthful new face of the NSW government.

    Ms. Smith was shattered when her idol Gladys was discredited and disgraced. So she now finding another one to drool on. She cannot come to terms that LNP can be bad
    Either that or it is the effect of working for Costello 9Fax media”

  3. Andrew_Earlwood at 10:06 am

    Thanks paroti. As I suspected, but I do like nath’s faux summary even more.

    Yes indeed, a well deserved thumbs up for that summary.


    Be interesting to see where this one goes? Their first models are a van for Amazon and a crew cab ute.

    Have no doubt that the Ute can happily tow your boat or caravan, and you can bet if they get to Oz someone will chime in with an extended range battery pack. 🙂

    Win Lotto and i think i would look seriously at getting one of these. 🙂

  5. Cheers AE and others.

    The only reason why Sheridan has any interest in Japan, or any other Asian country probably, is that they fit neatly into his Cold War mentality about the Containment of China.

    If you could gain a glimpse into his mind you would see ghostly images of B.A Santarmaria, Dominos falling over, Demilitarized zones, MacArthur with a cigar, and Australian communists creeping around his house.

  6. There seem to be two sides to CCS. One is the agricultural solution, and one the technological (sic) one. This is leading to problems in support and comprehension, I feel. Correct me if I’m wrong.

  7. Boerwarsays:
    Thursday, November 11, 2021 at 8:33 am
    “There is no need to get excited by the US China announcement.”

    For me it is. A step towards muffling the drums of war that some have been keen to beat.

    A signal that global survival may trump national ambition.

  8. Boerwar says:
    Thursday, November 11, 2021 at 8:17 am

    Hmmm…. MOE aside, three things draw attention:
    Morrison’s ratings collapse.
    Two point drop for the Greens.
    Two point rise for, presumably, the UAP.
    The first and third are consistent with Morrison’s self-trashing and with the power of Clive’s money.
    The Greens’ drop during COP26 is, IMO, counterintuitive. Perhaps Morrison has more climate cred than Bandt?
    Who knows?

    The devil is in the algorithms. Nothing much has changed between this poll and its predecessors. Palmer might well be inching upwards, but there’s no way to test this. The G vote is invariably exaggerated by the polling methodologies, which amplify the opinions of those willing to share them compared with those who are more reticent.

    Labor’s PV seems to have lifted from its nadir and the LNP’s has declined. If this reflects an improvement in QLD, then there must be some hope for a change of Government.

    Even so, there are still few signs that the weight of intention in the electorate has shifted a whole lot. It all looks very close indeed.

  9. 90% of the voting public don’t read Sheridan Coorey Savva Harris ……..nor watch the ABC.
    Morrison, with the very self awarded nickname, knows quite well that the level of engagement of Australian voters is “tally-ho” thin.
    Morrison doesn’t mind upsetting the “frogs” and assorted Asians because that is baseline Australia.
    Morrison knows house prices are at record high and that plays to his “mob”.
    The share market and superannuation funds are getting on swimmingly.
    The economy is not proving the problem as expected.
    The public think Covid is under control.
    The Greens have lost possession of climate change without a whimper!
    The Federal finances will be decorated with the appropriate bunting.
    Labor has been demonized, workers no longer relating their income streams to the Unions.
    Corruption, whether it be illegal use of public funds or brazen fraud is buried in so much bullshit that the end result is nilch.
    A few points in the polls is small change with the rusted ons and their threats via inheritance.
    The two major newspapers will fall into line.
    The ABC is sedated, domesticated, shackled and frightened.
    The existence of the Bernadis, Hansens, Palmers and the like, is favourable to the re-election of the “most corrupt government in the developed world.
    Having presented the basis for the re-election of the persona unbelievable, it’s probably worth noting something.
    Mr Albanese, the LaborParty, the despised Greens and a few independents have done incredibly well in getting themselves to the position they appear to be in the polls.
    The existence of Labor in WA, Qld, NY, ACT and Victoria have shown enough to suggest that there exists a chance that the “most corrupt government in the developed world”, led by the most fundamentally dishonest politician anywhere is a chance of being unseated at an election.
    Just a chance!

  10. lizzie @ #111 Thursday, November 11th, 2021 – 10:38 am

    There seem to be two sides to CCS. One is the agricultural solution, and one the technological (sic) one. This is leading to problems in support and comprehension, I feel. Correct me if I’m wrong.

    There is no agricultural solution. It’s either a way of conning voters into believing beef cattle can be made carbon neutral (as I saw recently on the ABC) or simple welfare for aggrieved farmers.

    There is one – and only one – way to address climate change, and that is to stop using fossil fuels. Everything else is wishful thinking 🙁

  11. Well I quite wrongly had pinned our planets hopes of a less than plus 2 degree rise on China and Europe.

    I had over counted the broken and corrupt us supreme court and legislature and wrongly written off their ability and willingness to recognise what was needed to Partnership with China.

    I hadn’t even factored in what a huge win it will be for China if they partner with the US and it is the US that fails, while they largely suceed.

    It doesn’t just recognise China as the regional and global power it is, it will also completely greenwash the entire Chinese global influence operation Murdoch and the Sinophobes have invested so heavily in trying to discredit.

    It will no longer be a ‘oh yes we can do it but you can’t’ absurdity leveraged against China, it will be China doing the hard yards for the whole world.

    Unlike Europe, China has the same disregard for life and human rights as unregulated Capitalism, it is a much more natural partner for the US and it is a partnership they are likely to do and look much better in. They always ran a risk with Europe they’d look like the unreliable laggard. There is almost no way they can achieve less than the US.

    So I was very wrong, I still don’t hold out much hope for the planet coming in under 2 degrees, but there is now a sliver of hope that Chinese national interest and pride aligns with what the planet needs

  12. Firefox says:
    Thursday, November 11, 2021 at 10:35 am
    Day 9 of Sarah in Scotland!

    Still playing dress-ups in Glasgow. Make-believe is lots of fun. Amusing. But not real. There will be the inevitable deflation – the anti-climax – that follows when she disembarks in Australia, and is reminded that in this hemisphere almost no one could care less.

  13. Andrew_Earlwoodsays:
    Thursday, November 11, 2021 at 10:06 am
    Thanks paroti. As I suspected, but I do like nath’s faux summary even more.

    Sheridan’s rambling simply forget the ‘air-sea’ gap that surrounds Australia: that alone is worth 20 Israeli Defence Forces. Therefore he ignores that our force structure is nearly entirely built on that strategic positioning. The combination of the air-sea gap plus dozens of maritime strategic pinch points underpins the primacy that

    I know you know but don’t want to discuss about the real reason for not closing the above-mentioned gap.
    It is because if Australia spends all its money on closing the Defence gaps we will not have much to spend on social security’ which is preferred spending of ALP or Tax cuts in case LNP .
    That is the reason why Australia “prefer the ‘little picture’ and in that little picture Australia exists as a hemorrhoid of the United States, but a grateful one.”

  14. An illegal house party held in Canberra’s south over Halloween and attended largely by ACT school students has become a COVID-19 super-spreader event.

    Health Minister Rachel Stephen-Smith said that 33 of the ACT’s COVID-19 cases could be linked to the party, held at a private residence in Wanniassa on October 30.

    “ACT Health advised yesterday that 33 cases have now been linked to an event and that is a matter for ACT Policing in terms of the investigation around that event,” she told ABC Radio Canberra this morning.

  15. P1

    Stopping the use of fossil fuels is obviously the best solution, which the LNP will ignore. However, the agricultural solution is to return to methods of husbandry that hold the carbon in the soil, such as is practised by organic (and other visionary) farmers. This is of course a much slower solution and would take too long to solve the current crisis, but would pay off in the long run.

  16. A prime example. Campaigning on April 7, 2019, he said then opposition leader Bill Shorten wanted to “end the weekend” by forcing Australians to buy electric vehicles that could not tow their trailers or boats to their favourite holiday spot, unlike their SUVs, which they should kiss goodbye.

    I have seen some posters on here suggest Bill Shorten didn’t do enough calling this scare campaign out at the last federal election.

    The truth is unlike franking credits which was framed as a ‘retiree tax’, Clive Palmers ‘Labor’s death tax’, and the Bob Brown Convoy. I actually don’t think this scare campaign worked. From memory it started out at the start of the campaign and then it was dropped likely because it wasn’t getting any traction. If anything it’s harmed Scott Morrison because not only was it not a effective tactic but his words have come back to haunt him.

  17. CCS can work relatively well if there is either a really big carbon price or Governments willing to throw taxpayer money at it, so it doesn’t interrupt the flow of wealth the the worlds richest people. Morrison is committed to number 2 so if he is willing to pay for it it can and will work.

    Even working it is a very poor bandaid (or transitional measure) rather than a solution. But Morrison has never been a solution guy, and Angus has largely been anti-bandaid as well as rabidly opposed to solutions.

  18. “There will be the inevitable deflation – the anti-climax – that follows when she disembarks in Australia”


    Oh don’t you worry, due to the overwhelming popularity of this Sarah in Scotland series, there will be an immediate follow-up special entitled Sarah in Singapore! Stay tuned…

  19. lizzie @ #122 Thursday, November 11th, 2021 – 11:00 am


    Stopping the use of fossil fuels is obviously the best solution, which the LNP will ignore. However, the agricultural solution is to return to methods of husbandry that hold the carbon in the soil, such as is practised by organic (and other visionary) farmers. This is of course a much slower solution and would take too long to solve the current crisis, but would pay off in the long run.

    Sadly, this is not the case … you can read an awful lot of nonsense about it, but this is a reasonable summary …

    Richard Eckard, professor of agriculture at the University of Melbourne, said he was concerned about some of the assumptions around land use.

    “The reliance on soil carbon — I would even go so far as to say — it is a dangerous assumption,” Professor Eckard said.

    “It is kind of asking farmers to lock up their soil to bail out the fossil fuel industry.”

    “This notion that the soil carbon on farms can bail out the fossil fuel industry is quite fanciful.”

    Also, as the climate warms, any temporary gains you have made will quite literally go up in smoke …

    “Under a changing climate, I think we will be lucky to hold on to the soil carbon we have got let alone increasing the amount we can store.”

  20. This is no surprise.

    9News Australia
    The Prime Minister’s office has failed to meet deadlines for multiple requests to access information about the controversial $660 million commuter car parks program.

  21. (Some) modeling of currently known COP 26 outcomes has the temp coming out at 2.4 degrees.

    I assume that the modeling assumes that pledges involving numbers and targets and dates will be honoured.

    The pledges are inadequate and we know perfectly well that a goodly proportion of them will not be honored. Indonesia and Brazil will not be stopping massive deforestation. China is increasing its emissions. Not reducing them.

    COP 26 is a catastrophe.

    Have we all noticed that we don’t talk about ocean acidification any more? It is barrelling right along.

    One would have thought that China, which hoovers up around a fifth of the world’s wild-caught fisheries, might have a care about the consequences of rising sea levels, ocean acidification, and ocean warming. Not to worry. Xi has given himself until zero net 2060 to sort himself out.

  22. [‘Asked on Newcastle radio 2HD on Monday if his image had been tarnished by his sojourn, Morrison persisted with a re-writing of recent history. “Well, Labor always sort of sticks up for people who have a crack at Australia.’]

    Morrison’s a scoundrel!

  23. “COP 26 is a catastrophe.”


    Thanks to the lobbying from the fossil fuel industry and the support they receive from the parties of the establishment, such as Labor and the Coalition here in Australia.

    If you think COP26 is inadequate and that progress is being deliberately delayed, which it is, then perhaps it’s time to change your vote from Labor to another party that actually takes the climate emergency seriously, such as the Greens.

    You as an individual have no power to change what the Chinese Government does, Comrade Boerski. However, you do have a say in the makeup of the Australian Parliament. Therefore, I suggest you cease and desist voting for and supporting Labor, that way you will have made some kind of positive contribution to ending the climate emergency, because at the moment you’re pretty much the equivalent of a tiny chihuahua yapping at thunder.

  24. Hardly surprising that Labor might be supporting Smoko and Co on blowing more public money on the CCS BS, which is actually predominantly being used to “enhance oil and gas recovery” from old wells not so much store carbon

    Seems biggest states in Australia for future drilling is really WA, Qld/SA channel country region, Victoria and NT

    Glasgow Agreement of global anti-fracking and coal groups

    Drill Baby Drill report

    For the remainder of 2021 and 2022, Russia and Australia want to drill at least 80 wells each. The top drilling countries – Australia, Russia, Mexico, Indonesia, USA, Norway, UK, Brazil and Myanmar – plan over 500 wells until the end of 2022.

    Australia’s gas and oil drilling plans up to the end of next year, evidently with the support of the Smoko and SA Libs as well as the Labor governments of WA, Qld, NT and Vic at least

  25. All this talk of…
    “COP 26 is a catastrophe”
    Great that China and US are at one
    1.5 still attainable
    2.4 in some models

    All relevant points.
    I have not heard the term “Tipping points” once – maybe I missed it.
    To me that is an even greater danger than 2 to 3 degrees – as devastating as that will be, we would just have to adjust, as long as it just stayed at that 2 to 3 degrees.
    I’m no climatologist (so all flaming most welcome) but a chaotic system such as climate is hard to predict in normal times let alone when we poke at this chaotic system with a carbon stick. It could flip at any moment to a state we will not like.
    2030,2050 later? we just don’t know.
    I’m going to buy a solar powered air conditioner! Trouble is I haven’t seen a unit that can do much cooling when it is over 50 degrees outside.

  26. U.S. COVID update: Daily cases rise for fourth day in a row

    – New cases: 99,450 …………………… – New deaths: 1,749

    – In hospital: 45,756 (+714)
    – In ICU: 11,701 (+71)

    779,866 total deaths now

  27. More evidence of the difference vaccinations make.Numbers are from NZ over the last few weeks. They are using only Pfizer at the moment. However to counter some of the bullshit re mRNA vaccines they will offer AstraZeneca to believers in that particular line of misinformation. As I got ‘Pfizered’ the numbers are reassuring. For any who are dilly dallying , get off ya bums , get vaccinated.
    Catch Covid
    Unvaccinated-1208 per million
    Fully vaccinated- – 124 per million
    Unvaccinated = 94.4 per million
    Fully vaccinated – 3.6 per million

  28. It wasn’t posted in the Roy Morgan results the Queensland polling numbers. If I was Labor I would take these numbers. Of course it would be nice if it was a Kevin Rudd type numbers in 2007. But Queensland has always been a difficult battleground federally for Labor. Bob Hawke didn’t even start winning half of Queensland seats until the failed Sir Joh for PM campaign wedged the coalition in 1987. It is Roy Morgan though and there record in terms of accuracy has been pretty scratchy at best.

    In Queensland the LNP has increased its lead over the last two weeks and is now on 53% (up 1.5% points since late October) cf. ALP 47% (down 1.5% points) on a two-party preferred basis. Despite the LNP’s lead this represents a swing of 5.4% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.

  29. Firefox says:
    Thursday, November 11, 2021 at 11:33 am

    “COP 26 is a catastrophe.”


    Thanks to the lobbying from…’
    …SH-Y? She was apparently the only Australian in Glasgow.

  30. timbo @ #136 Thursday, November 11th, 2021 – 11:42 am

    I have not heard the term “Tipping points” once – maybe I missed it.
    To me that is an even greater danger than 2 to 3 degrees – as devastating as that will be, we would just have to adjust, as long as it just stayed at that 2 to 3 degrees

    We have had the tipping points discussion here in the past. The main problem is that you can’t see these tipping points in advance – you only know you have passed them in hindsight. There is a good chance we have already passed some critical ones, but we will only find out in a decade – or even longer.

    As to “2 to 3 degrees”, another discussion we have had here in the past is that this is a worldwide average. Some places will get much warmer than that, some will not warm quite that much. However, we now know that Australia will be at the upper extreme – we now know that because we already are. It is likely that large swathes of Australia will become uninhabitable even at 2 degrees warming.

    Fun times ahead!

  31. October labor market figures not looking too flash for the world’s worst treasurer. The big question was always going to be what happened when Commonwealth support for the labor market was withdrawn.

  32. What was effective with the 2019 scare campaign on EVs was its conflation with the ‘retiree tax’ and demonisation of Shorten.

    Low information voters going to the polls on the day would have seen a string of corflutes with:

    – Bill Shorten will tax you retirement
    – Bill Shorten will tax your super
    – Bill Shorten will tax your car
    – Bill Shorten will tax your boat
    – Bill Shorten will tax you to death!

    Very effective for the don’t know, don’t care cohort – I mean, why would you vote for someone about to do all those things?

  33. In NSW Opposition leader Anthony Albanese is being asked if he supports the phase-out of coal. He says the market has already decided to phase out coal.

    “There hasn’t been in Australia a new coal-fired power station built on this government’s watch in 9 years.

    “That’s because the market is saying the cheapest form is renewables.

    “The market is speaking.”

  34. P1 – yep we’ve discussed these things here. I was referring to the COP26 noises about at the moment.
    Having done a bit of coding of some models involving chaotic systems, when you think you have a handle on them they suddenly explode in your face. My son has Asperger’s – so I know something about chaotic systems!
    To have had a real chance at addressing global warming we needed to be at net zero at least a decade ago.

  35. Maybe AOC will tell SHY why she and other members of the Squad voted against Joe Biden’s $1.2T Infrastructure Bill.

    In short, it wasn’t broad enough. So nothing was better.

  36. Sprocket

    Morrison has dropped the fiction today that shorten wanted to increase petrol tax.
    Petrol and diesel prices in Perth are higher than they’ve ever been.
    Labor’s fault no doubt.

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