Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

A nudge in the wrong direction for the Coalition in the latest Newspoll.

The Australian reports the latest Newspoll has Labor leading 54-46, out from 53-47 three weeks ago, from primary votes of Coalition 35% (down two), Labor 38% (up one), Greens 11% (steady) and One Nation 3% (up one). Scott Morrison is down two on approval to 46% and up one on disapproval to 50%, while Anthony Albanese is steady on approval at 37% and down one on disapproval to 46%. Morrison leads 48-34 as preferred prime minister, out marginally from 47-34. More to follow.

UPDATE: The poll also finds 35% saying Anthony Albanese and Labor would be better at “leading Australia’s response to the global climate change crisis”, 28% favouring Scott Morrison and the Coalition, and 21% saying both would be equal. It also find a continuation of a significant shift on what the federal government should prioritise out of energy prices, carbon emissions and preventing blackouts, which has now been asked four times going back to 2017. From July 2018 to February 2020 to the present, the response for carbon emissions has escalated from 24% to 43% to 47%, while energy prices has declined from 63% to 42% to 40%. Preventing blackouts has been steady, going from 9% to 11% to 10%. I am not able to access a sample size of the poll because I can’t get The Australian’s online printed edition to work, but the poll will have been conducted from Wednesday to Saturday.

UPDATE 2: The sample was 1515 – the methodology statement for the poll can be viewed here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,121 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. It will be interesting to (ultimately) see the view of the Commission as to the credibility of witnesses appearing before it

  5. A bit more on Canavan – if he’s no. 2 on the LNP ticket, could prove interesting.

    Canavan exposes Nationals’ net zero division
    The Queensland senator says he will openly campaign against the Nationals and Liberals position on emissions at the election.
    By JOE KELLY, JOSEPH LAM
    (Murdoch’s Oz)

  6. citizen @ #242 Monday, October 25th, 2021 – 1:03 pm

    What would a bullsh*t policy be without a $13 million marketing campaign?

    And in environment estimates there is one piece of information we have learned (we don’t know what the Nationals have received, what the climate deal is, or what it will cost) but we do know that there is an advertising plan coming!

    Under questioning from Labor’s Nita Green, the environment boffins have conceded there will be a $13m marketing plan on the climate policy, including market research – which you should start seeing from this week.

    (Guardian updates at 12:55)

    Election signal ????

  8. laughtong @ #256 Monday, October 25th, 2021 – 10:21 am

    citizen @ #242 Monday, October 25th, 2021 – 1:03 pm

    What would a bullsh*t policy be without a $13 million marketing campaign?

    And in environment estimates there is one piece of information we have learned (we don’t know what the Nationals have received, what the climate deal is, or what it will cost) but we do know that there is an advertising plan coming!

    Under questioning from Labor’s Nita Green, the environment boffins have conceded there will be a $13m marketing plan on the climate policy, including market research – which you should start seeing from this week.

    (Guardian updates at 12:55)

    Election signal ????

    Damage control more likely.

  11. So the Nats are going to develop a climate policy in one to two days. 😆

    But David Littleproud wants you to know that the Nationals will be honest with you at the next election:

    We’ll be honest with the Australian people and look them square in the eyes and tell the truth. That’s what they want out of government, not just someone who signs up to it blindly but has no plan to get there.

    And if that’s what the public want from the Labor party who are able to do this without any scrutiny, you’ll see a detailed plan in the next 24-48 hours from us.

    Whereas the other mob are pinning their hope on a few electric cars.

    The Guardian blog

  12. Well, here’s a surprise.

    Nour Haydar
    @NourHaydar
    ·
    2m
    #BREAKING PM
    @ScottMorrisonMP
    has confirmed Minister for Resources and Water the Hon Keith Pitt MP will be added to the Cabinet – following Nats decision to agree to net zero by 2050
    @abcnews

  13. Thanks Barney.

    But David Littleproud wants you to know that the Nationals will be honest with you at the next election

    He’s confusing “honest” with “frank”, as clearly demonstrated by his characterisation of “the other mob”.

  14. Jan. 6 Protest Organizers Say They Participated in ‘Dozens’ of Planning Meetings With Members of Congress and White House Staff

    Two sources are communicating with House investigators and detailed a stunning series of allegations to Rolling Stone, including a promise of a “blanket pardon” from the Oval Office

    As the House investigation into the Jan. 6 attack heats up, some of the planners of the pro-Trump rallies that took place in Washington, D.C., have begun communicating with congressional investigators and sharing new information about what happened when the former president’s supporters stormed the U.S. Capitol. Two of these people have spoken to Rolling Stone extensively in recent weeks and detailed explosive allegations that multiple members of Congress were intimately involved in planning both Trump’s efforts to overturn his election loss and the Jan. 6 events that turned violent.

    https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/exclusive-jan-6-organizers-met-congress-white-house-1245289/

    Glenn Kirschner @glennkirschner2 – Legal Analyst; Fmr 30-yr fed prosecutor.

    Which is precisely why Republican representatives keep voting against, investigations, enforcing their subpoenas, etc.

    The mother of all cover-ups.

  15. Leunig gone from Ninefax?

    Leunig has been axed from the Age after his cartoon supporting Anti Vaxxers is the news I welcome this Monday morning.— lpse Dixit (@IpseDixitCicero) October 24, 2021

  16. Of course there is a marketing campaign. This government is all about marketing.

    …and given that there is less than a year to an election, everything must be marketed in overdrive. It would be more informative if there was no budget because they can’t market in an election period, so they would not be able to spend it.

  17. I listened to about 2 minutes of Craig Kelly’s speech shortly before members’ statements. He said (wwtte) that C.19 policies are based on superstition, claiming that many are dying despite having been doubly vaccinated. I’ll leave it there.

  18. John Barilaro showed why he quickly followed Gladys in resigning as leader of the national party and parliament

    NSW ICAC has caught them

  19. phoenixRED @ #264 Monday, October 25th, 2021 – 12:41 pm

    Jan. 6 Protest Organizers Say They Participated in ‘Dozens’ of Planning Meetings With Members of Congress and White House Staff

    Two sources are communicating with House investigators and detailed a stunning series of allegations to Rolling Stone, including a promise of a “blanket pardon” from the Oval Office
    https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/exclusive-jan-6-organizers-met-congress-white-house-1245289/

    That’s an eye opening read. Thank you.

    The overall claim:

    explosive allegations that multiple members of Congress were intimately involved in planning both Trump’s efforts to overturn his election loss and the Jan. 6 events that turned violent.

    The list of people:

    … including former White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows, who they describe as having had an opportunity to prevent the violence.

    “I remember Marjorie Taylor Greene specifically,” the organizer says. “I remember talking to probably close to a dozen other members at one point or another or their staffs.”

    the pair both say the members who participated in these conversations or had top staffers join in included Rep. Paul Gosar (R-Ariz.), Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.), Rep. Mo Brooks (R-Ala.), Rep. Madison Cawthorn (R-N.C.), Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.), and Rep. Louie Gohmert (R-Texas).

    Both describe Katrina Pierson, who worked for Trump’s campaign in 2016 and 2020, as a key liaison between the organizers of protests against the election and the White House.

    A separate third source, ..snip.. says Kylie Kremer, one of the key organizers at that event, boasted that she was going to meet with Meadows at the White House ahead of the rally.

    The motivation:

    “The reason I’m talking to the committee and the reason it’s so important is that — despite Republicans refusing to participate … this commission’s all we got as far as being able to uncover the truth about what happened at the Capitol that day,” the organizer says. “It’s clear that a lot of bad actors set out to cause chaos. … They made us all look like shit.”

    “A whole host of people let this go a totally different way,” the senior Republican staffer says. “They fucked it up for a lot of people who were planning to present evidence on the House floor. We were pissed off at everything that happened .”

  21. The mistake by the ABC re the Queensland D-P is no surprise, and nothing new. Most of this stuff seems to be put together by newbies on Work Experience, is often not checked for boring matters such as accuracy, correct spelling and the like……This is no ABC malaise, for if anything, the commercial media is as bad if not worse…..
    Recurring polls seem puzzled as to why thinking people no longer rely on the old pulp media an/or their TV partners for accurate reporting……No surprise at all really……

  22. A summary of this morning’s ICAC hearing:

    [‘Former NSW deputy premier John Barilaro has agreed the Berejiklian-Maguire relationship was a potential conflict of interest. He said the government would have handled its consideration of a $5.5 million grant to the Australian Clay Target Association, a gun club in Mr Maguire’s electorate of Wagga Wagga, quite differently if it had been aware of the relationship. Ms Berejiklian was the NSW treasurer and chair of cabinet’s expenditure review committee in December 2016 when the state government signed off on the grant. Mr Barilaro is giving evidence as a witness and is not accused of wrongdoing.

    Mr Barilaro said the application for funding for the gun club had some “unusual” features, including that it did not specify a pool of funding from which the $5.5 million would be sourced. It was also unusual for a relatively small project to be considered by the committee, and it was handled with greater urgency.

    Mr Barilaro said he had no particular interest in the project. He does not recall Ms Berejiklian advocating for it during the committee meeting but said that she was supportive of it in 2017, when she became premier, and would ask him for updates about the plan. After the government signed off on the funding, he took over as the minister responsible for overseeing the development of a satisfactory business case to support the funding actually being released.

    Daryl Maguire could be a “pain in the arse” and like a “dog with a bone” in lobbying for projects in his electorate, Mr Barilaro said. This included in relation to millions of dollars in funding for the Riverina Conservatorium of Music in Wagga Wagga.

    A former adviser to Mr Barilaro, Peter Minucos, also gave evidence this morning about his involvement in a business case to support the funding for the gun club being released. As we have heard throughout the inquiry, the state government made the $5.5 million grant to the Australian Clay Target Association conditional on a satisfactory business case being produced. Mr Minucos said the business case that accompanied the original application to the expenditure review committee in December 2016 was “deficient”.

    During 2017, external consultants worked in consultation with the state government on a revised business case for the project. The first draft estimated the costs of the gun club upgrade would outweigh the benefits and estimated a benefit to cost ratio (BCR) of 0.88. That figure later increased to 1.1, which was high enough to justify government expenditure. Mr Minucos, who is not accused of wrongdoing, said he was not interested in the figures in the business case but with whether the consultants followed Treasury guidelines. He also denied that political pressure was exerted to increase the BCR.
    Mr Minucos said he did not recall anybody telling him words to the effect of “pull your head in” or that he should not engage directly with the external consultants about the business case.

    Mr Minucos did not recall Ms Berejiklian taking a particular interest in the gun club project. He said he understood the project had political backing because the expenditure review committee had approved the spending.’] -SMH

  23. Back in 2010, Ted Baillieu made a lot out of the Liberals how to votes putting Labor ahead of the Greens on the basis that Greens were “dangerous”. I wonder if the ALP could do the same thing with the United Australia party and their anti-vax stance? They could really wedge the government on that one. It worked back in 1998 when the LNP got into a muddle over One Nation preferences.

  24. A nods as good as a wink.

    Josh Butler

    Foster asked about this by Penny Wong. Her answer:

    “I can say categorically I have at no stage intentionally winked at Senator Birmingham. It’s either capturing me with an eye closing or there’s some other reason”
    Quote Tweet
    Stela Todorovic

    WATCH: Dept of PM&C’s Stephanie Foster appears to wink at Simon Birmingham (and/or colleagues) during #estimates, as she’s grilled about Christian Porter’s anonymous donations and the timeline of internal discussions regarding whether or not these were compliant with standards.

    https://twitter.com/i/status/1452459348219756547

  25. Michael Leunig is not completely gone from The Age, he is still in the Saturday edition. A lot of people are skimming the opening bit of the new article in the Australian (who play their culture war angle as far as possible as you’d expect, while Michael has a huge whinge and throws around words like “woke”) and acting like its new news that he’s no longer in the Monday edition even though this was talked about on twitter recently so people knew, and that he has been completely dropped, when the full Oz article and earlier online chat make it clear he is still appearing in the Saturday Spectrum section. I blame the Oz paywall and people not being able to read the full thing. You’d think he been sacked completely if you just read the headline.

  26. I’d really like to believe that (my inner engineer speaks), but do we know how it’s different? For a short time after the 2019 election there was a move by some polling outfits to create a polling standard, similar to what I think exists in the UK and possibly elsewhere. I’ve been distracted but I haven’t seen reference to any such thing in Aus. Magic may be entertaining but I wouldn’t use it to build a bridge. (To borrow from CC.)

    The Australian Polling Council was indeed established:

    https://www.australianpollingcouncil.com/

    As a result, YouGov (for one) publishes a methodology statement such as the following after each Newspoll:

    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/apdxz76597/210607%20Public%20Polling%20Methodology%20Statement.pdf

    Newspoll is indeed a different beast now. Whether it’s a better one remains to be established.

  27. Newspoll is indeed a different beast now. Whether it’s a better one remains to be established.

    Was it the Newspoll new beast leading up to the QLD election?

  30. From the Age blog

    Federal MP Craig Kelly, the leader of Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party, wants to cut the ABC’s billion-dollar a year budget and redirect the funds to help those who lose their jobs from declining to get vaccinated against the coronavirus.

    In a tweet this afternoon, Mr Kelly said if he was elected or secured the balance of power he would “cut the ABC’s budget and salaries”. He linked to an article showing ABC boss David Anderson secured a salary exceeding $1 million over the past financial year.”

    Will Kelly take a pay cut? commentators on the blog are asking

    I liked this comment
    Just like a mini-Trump Craig Kelly is doing nothing but trying to tap into a vein of dissent and inflame it into a culture war.

  34. Greensborough Growler says:
    Monday, October 25, 2021 at 1:40 pm
    Well, here’s a surprise.

    Nour Haydar
    @NourHaydar

    Could that be considered a bribe?

  35. Joshua Clarke
    @thejoshuaclarke
    Quick map of tonights #newspoll of a 6 percent rounded uniform swing. Melbourne gets very lonely for the Liberals #auspol

  36. We need more scientists to help explain this:

    How is putting Pitt on the gravy train going to help Australia reaching net zero fifty?

  37. One thing for sure, the LNP last held a lead in Newspoll in November last year. In June it was neck and neck. But, since then there has been a gradual but significant drift to Labor and an 8% difference between the two majors on TPP is now established. This recent poll is well in line with the last 4 Newspolls. So, I reckon the Libs are starting to sweat bricks that they haven’t got enough time to claw back the votes they need.

    It’s getting harder to see an Election before Christmas now. But, the killing season for politicians is usually early December. So, Morrison may be looking over his shoulder. Climate Change Policy has a knack of ending PM careers in recent years.

    The down side of not going before Christmas is that Australians will be on holidays and will have plenty of time to contemplate turfing Morrison and the Libs and installing that nice Mr Albo as PM.

    Labor seem to be in a good position at the moment. It’s hard to see what policy initiatives the LNP can pull out of the hat this time round. It has a feel like 2007 when Howard lead the beauty contest polls and Denis Shanahan waxed lyrical about the only metric that was was important was the PM’s popularity. A tired Government and a credible alternative put paid to that.

  38. Preselection of Liberal candidate for Hughes still to happen I believe, but Melanie Gibbons, currently Liberal member for Holsworthy In NSW parliament has indicated intention of seeking preselection. I understand that Ms Gibbons is the partner of Kent Johns who was tipped to be preselected for Hughes in 2019 before intervention by PM in support of Kelly.

  40. I was interested in how the nutter-sphear is taking the governments pivot.

    JoNova has blog post promoting sheep drench to cure covid, she is getting further and further out there.
    https://joannenova.com.au/2021/10/indonesia-cut-covid-by-98-with-ivermectin-while-australia-grew-cases-500-with-lock-n-vax/

    This week’s post is complaining Morrison is a shit negotiator. Her argument, we re doing better than others. As we have 203o projections that are above our targets, she does have a point.

    https://joannenova.com.au/2021/10/australia-is-the-greatest-global-carbon-patsy-is-scott-morrison-the-worst-negotiator-on-earth/

    You can read Matt Caravan’s enlightened opinion at:
    https://www.onlineopinion.com.au/view.asp?article=21684

    The heading only. Read the comments to enter nutter-verse.
    https://www.michaelsmithnews.com/2021/10/nett-zero-nationals-the-nationals-sell-australia-out-for-likes-on-social-media.html

    Matt Caravan is busy, an article there, you have to scroll past other”entertainment” to get there.
    http://australian-politics.blogspot.com/

  41. Barilaro re-stating the obvious:

    [‘Former NSW deputy premier John Barilaro has again told the ICAC that Gladys Berejiklian should have disclosed her relationship with then NSW Liberal MP Daryl Maguire when she was making decisions about funding projects in Mr Maguire’s electorate.

    He’s been asked about that relationship again in the context of funding promises made to the Riverina Conservatorium of Music in Wagga Wagga.

    Ms Berejiklian was premier when the government’s expenditure review committee (ERC) signed off in 2018 on $10 million for the conservatorium to move premises. Later in 2018 the government also promised during a by-election to award a further $20 million to fund the construction a recital hall. That money has yet to be paid.

    “There should have been a disclosure,” Mr Barilaro said.

    The ICAC has previously heard Ms Berejiklian and Mr Maguire were in a relationship between 2015 and 2018.

    “ERC decisions are taken seriously,” he said.

    Ms Berejiklian is expected to appear later this week to give evidence at the ICAC. She has denied wrongdoing.

    Mr Barilaro is not accused of wrongdoing.’] – SMH

  42. z,

    We all know it’s not going to be 6% and it’s not going to be uniform.

    Could be one of those polarising Elections where the Lib and Labor heartlands deliver massive votes and the marginals don’t swing enough to change hands.

  44. Greensborough Growler @ #292 Monday, October 25th, 2021 – 2:19 pm

    Could be one of those polarising Elections where the Lib and Labor heartlands deliver massive votes

    What’s Morrison doing to inspire a massive vote from the Lib heartlands?

    …though I guess by the same token, what’s Albo doing to bring in the Labor heartlands vote? Question withdrawn.

  45. Again thanks for the link. https://www.australianpollingcouncil.com/

    The web site gives an overview of the council’s aims and principles, and that’s all good. But I can see how I’m not really the the web site’s audience. On the surface the council seems like a loose agreement among competitors to hold each other to account (Quality Mark), promote polling as an “industry”, and provide cover from (and for) wary journalists.

    The Council has four employees, according to its LinkedIn profile. None are full time.
    Chair: Campbell White, Greater Sydney Area (BSc & PhD, psychology & social psychology)
    Secretary: Mark Davis, Greater Melbourne Area (BA & Grad Dip, statistics & social statistics)
    Chris Lonergan, Greater Sydney Area (MBA)
    James Stewart, Greater Brisbane Area (“entrepreneur”)

    I’d be interested in learning how it functions. Do they meet? Do they review? Do they solicit? Do they organise industry events? Do they promote their technology or ideals? Do they communicate with like minded organisations (UK and US perhaps)? Do they have individual memberships?

    It seems to me that they are at the very early stages of organising, and are not yet a recognisably professional body. Nevertheless, a little of something is a whole lot better than nothing at all. It’s a welcome start.

  46. Barney
    “Just reading Morrison’s answers in Question Time.

    I think P1 has a new gig writing Morrison’s answers.”

    I was thinking the same thing. He makes up stuff on the spot that is completely false. This paragraph of reply quoted from the Guardian is a string of whoppers.

    “We had policies that were supporting electric vehicles and renewable technologies, all of those things at the last election and the Australian people supported those policies. We want to keep doing that because under our policies, we want to see more and more investment going into these areas and that’s what we are trying to change and re- mandate so they can invest in these important technologies. ”

    “We had policies that were supporting electric vehicles and renewable technologies, all of those things at the last election and the Australian people supported those policies. We want to keep doing that because under our policies, we want to see more and more investment going into these areas and that’s what we are trying to change and re- mandate so they can invest in these important technologies. “

  48. a r,

    To be fair Albo has kept a measured tone throughout the pandemic. He’s been critical of aspects of the Government’s performance. But, has not been hyperbolic with his commentary. At a time of uncertainty during the Covid pandemic he’s been pretty solid, supportive and resolute which I reckon people have taken notice of and will respect.

    Other pollies in other jurisdictions have been aggressive, whining and wrong. Victoria’s Opposition is a case in point.

    Albo is not a Messianic figure. But, I doubt that is what the Electorate wants at this time.

  49. Labor will get a fair bit of mileage at the election out of the anti-corruption angle. There’s just a litany of examples to us, all of which remind voters how much money has been wasted and how entitled these arseholes really are.

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