Seemingly nothing doing on the polling front this week, though I would have thought we were due the monthly Resolve Strategic poll from the Age/Herald. That may yet come – perhaps even very shortly – given the publisher’s unpredictable past treatment of it. I need a new post sooner than that though, so here are some relevant recent developments:
• Anthony Albanese has reportedly told his party to be prepared for the possibility that Scott Morrison will call an election for December 11 after he returns from the Glasgow climate summit early next month. Andrew Clennell of Sky News describes this as a “ploy”, and says the genuine view within Labor is that the election will most likely be held in March. Kevin Bonham notes that the proximity of this date to Christmas and New Year would complicate the protracted process of Senate counting, and that it would not allow time for new laws requiring registered parties to have at least 1500 members to take effect.
• The Victorian Supreme Court has thrown out a legal challenge against the Labor national executive’s takeover of the Victorian branch’s federal preselection process. This had been pursued by the factional bloc of the Right associated with Bill Shorten, which The Age reports is considering an appeal. Assuming the ruling holds, it confirms the preselection of former state party secretary Sam Rae in the new seat of Hawke, and allows the party to proceed with other federal preselections that have so far been in limbo.
• The Sydney Morning Herald reports that candidates for Liberal preselection in Hughes are likely to include Jenny Ware, moderate-backed director of legal services at Georges River Council, and that there is also likely to be a factional conservative in the field. This complicates matters for Melanie Gibbons, who will quit her state seat of Holsworthy to run, and has the backing of Scott Morrison.
New South Wales by-election latest:
• There is now a fifth state by-election on the way in New South Wales, and the first in a Labor-held seat, after Jodi McKay announced her intention to resign five months after losing the leadership to Chris Minns. This will create a vacancy in her seat of Strathfield, which she held at the 2019 election by a 5.0% margin. Anton Rose of Inner West Courier reports potential preselection candidates include Sravya Abbineni, multiculturalism adviser at NSW Government Health and former staffer to McKay; John Faker, mayor of Burwood; and Jennifer Light, the party’s national assistant secretary.
• The Nationals have preselected Nichole Overall, a local historian, communications consultant and freelance writer, to succeed John Barilaro as the party’s candidate in Monaro.
• In addition to the previously noted Gail Giles-Gidney, the mayor of Willoughby, the Sydney Morning Herald reports candidates for the preselection to succeed Gladys Berejiklian in Willoughby will include Tim James, factional conservative and executive general manager of the Menzies Research Centre.
sprocket_ @ #2297 Sunday, October 24th, 2021 – 5:47 pm
Certainly sounds like it.
Has Anthony green called the election yet? After that shitshow liberals will be desperate to avoid losing opposition status
Player One says:
Sunday, October 24, 2021 at 4:10 pm
Stuart @ #2207 Sunday, October 24th, 2021 – 3:40 pm
There is nothing wrong with Fiona Phillips, but she has conspicuously failed to achieve much for this electorate. This is not entirely her fault – neither the Feds nor the State governments have been kind to this electorate recently …
Even the local councils have been starved for funding. We are still nowhere near recovering from the 2019 bushfires – e.g. many roads and bridges are still waiting to be rebuilt – and now Covid has ruined many small businesses here.
——————-
You’d think/hope that an effective Opposition MP would be able to turn these deficiencies of the Federal and State governments to political advantage. (I know nothing about her or the electorate I should add).
ABC: This is a significant development.
Of course in Opposition the Nationals will probably begin to whip up anti-Climate action rhetoric to feed their base.
The Nats have agreed to a ‘process’ for net zero by 2020.
uh huh.
Morrison is a s weak as piss! The country should never give in to economic terrorists.
Nats and Morrison have the headline they were after. But, it doesn’t seem to have much meat on the bone.
A sort of managed nothingness imho.
2020?
They better work faster than the speed of light then :P.
The Nats have agreed to a ‘process’ for net zero by 2020.
_____
Sir Humphrey Appleby would be immensely proud of that one!
David Rowe
ABC latest – more to come:
“Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce has confirmed the majority of party members have agreed to support the Prime Minister’s plan to adopt a target of net zero emissions by 2050.
However, Mr Joyce said the party would provide its firm commitment once it had seen the final position taken by Cabinet.
The Nationals met for just over two hours this afternoon to finalise their position on the crucial climate policy.”
(ABC updates)
Barnaby Joyce says, “We are in support of a process going forward that would go towards the 2050 emissions target – obviously that’s dependent upon what we see in the cabinet submission and reflecting the conversations in the agreements between myself and the Prime Minister.”
What is the hell IS this? It could hardly be described as a commitment.
He’s saying that if the payoff Morrison promised him actually gets to Cabinet then it’s a go.
Would love to know the numbers. Was it a large majority, or a very slim one?!
‘BK says:
Sunday, October 24, 2021 at 6:09 pm
Barnaby Joyce says, “We are in support of a process going forward that would go towards the 2050 emissions target – obviously that’s dependent upon what we see in the cabinet submission and reflecting the conversations in the agreements between myself and the Prime Minister.”
What is the hell IS this? It could hardly be described as a commitment.’
———————
It means Joyce does not trust Morrison’s assurances.
The pork drops have started…
Tonight: #EXCLUSIVE – as the Nationals debate climate policy – new details on the hundreds of millions of dollars for projects in government seats – which electorates top the list and why there’s an electoral warning from the past….Find out @9NewsAUS at 6. #auspol
SfM delivering for the Country Party….
If Barnaby won’t make a firm commitment until he is satisfied the cabinet submission “reflects his discussion” with Morrison, then he has really agreed to very little.
It all depends on how desperate Morrison is for some sort of plan to take to Glasgow.
I’m about to pay my latest activity statement to the ATO. I’m thinking I should just write out a cheque to the National Party, and cut out the middle-man.
Meanwhile next week looks like viewing is sorted…
Get ready for a big week in ICAC coming up.
Monday: Former Deputy Premier John Barilaro
Wednesday: Former MP Daryl Maguire
Thursday/Friday: Former Premier Gladys Berejiklian
To be fair to the Nationals extracting pork is the entire reason for their existence.
Fat men like Barnaby should not wear slim fit shirts.
It’s grotesque. Vikki, have a word.
They also want a pony.
Cracks are emerging in Barnaby Joyce’s “deal” to deliver net zero by 2050 for the Prime Minister with Nationals MPs confirming they won’t support it.
Nationals Senator Matt Canavan has told news.com.au that the deal doesn’t have unanimous support.
Speaking after the meeting, he confirmed that he still believed it was a “bad deal”.
“Net zero will be a bad deal for Australia because it will send jobs and industry to China just as we face greater risks of conflict.”
https://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/climate-change/national-leader-barnaby-joyce-confirms-majority-back-new-climate-target-of-net-zero-by-2050/news-story/4d416503ad44ed9a1bc798f963b46c2a
Apparently, there’s a typo in the Nats press release.
They have actually agreed to a process for not zero carbon emissions by 2050.
Interested in what people think about the influence of Clive Palmer and the United Australia Party on the next election.
Believe Clive’s campaign in the media against Labor helped win it for the Coalition in the last election campaign.
Tempting to attack people’s intelligence for falling for it, but that plays in to the whole narrative. Don’t call me an idiot, I’m not part of the latte’ set – I’m a real hard working Australian.
Ch 7 news said SfM leaves for overseas on Thursday. I think he stops in Rome for a G20 appearance.
So just three days to cobble something together to announce in Glasgow.
Scout
I posted a long article from the Hun yesterday morning on this topic.
I won’t post Morrison’s press release welcoming the Nats extraction of pork, but suffice to say, it is full of motherhood statements, and empty on any specifics.
On 2nd thoughts…
‘B.S. Fairman says:
Sunday, October 24, 2021 at 6:33 pm
They also want a pony.’
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good one.
It took them eight years to reach agreement on the need to do a process?
FMD.
Thanks laughtong will have a look for it, the Herald Sun was and is part of the narrative.
Palmer has money to burn and spends it on conning a lot of Australians
Van someone outline how to download the vaccination certificate of a teenager, who doesn’t have MyGov account and the Medicare is listed under one of the parent’s Medicare card?
Taiwan War. Tick, tick, tick…
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/24/us-wants-to-help-taiwan-participate-meaningfully-in-un-as-china-prepares-to-mark-key-anniversary
sprocket_ @ #2329 Sunday, October 24th, 2021 – 5:40 pm
Thanks for posting. I snipped it though because there’s no point repeating it. But I marvel at how often he refers to “Australia”. Perhaps he’s mindful of the international audience he’ll be among soon. They’re living in his head. He’s feeling some pressure.
Ven @ #2334 Sunday, October 24th, 2021 – 5:45 pm
My 14 year old is fully vaccinated and is on my medicare card but I can no longer access them on my my gov account ( too old ), 13 year old also fully vaccinated and still accessible. The 14 year old will need their own my gov account.
BAS (as mentioned by someone )
Every business in Australia is a branch of the ATO
Preparing a BAS and remitting the net amount to the ATO (it was monthly so I assume it still is)
No complaint about this impost on business however
Instead they complain about………….
Well, I’ll let you compile the list
So Canavan is still holding out. No wonder Barnaby stumbled over his presser. It was all fantasy.
Max@5.55pm,
Before you take P1’s opinion about how effective Fiona Phillips is as a local member, you should be aware that she lives in Gilmore, and will preference the Liberal party in that marginal seat. She is encouraging others on the blog to vote for the Independent of their choice (so far so good), and to then preference the major party the consider most likely to win., as this will deliver the best personal financial benefit for individual voters.
While being an incredibly selfish perspective, she also makes it very clear that she expects the Coalition to win, and hence she is nudging any lurker on the blog to preference Liberal over Labor, particularly if they live in a marginal seat like Gilmore ( which, surprise surprise, make the Coalition victory she predicts more likely).
Disclaimer: I think the Morrison Federal government is the most corrupt in my lifetime. I fervently want to make sure they DO not win the next election.
Canavan’s Senate term expires 2022, what’s his chances of another go, or will he run for Palmer ?
Scout @ #2323 Sunday, October 24th, 2021 – 5:36 pm
That it did. And seems likely to happen again. If his candidates get ~5%, and even a small portion of that comes off Labor’s primary, it’s pretty close to game-over.
Or even without candidates and people voting for them, if he just fills the airwaves with nonsense ads attacking Labor over ‘something, something, Chinese airstrips’ or wharever, that’ll probably do it too unless Labor does much better on advertising/messaging this time around.
There’s a reason Clive is targeting anti vaxxers and it isn’t because he is one.
ar
Pretty sure Clive ran a lot of anti-labor material at the last State election (Qld), which didn’t seem to be so effective. He’s diminshed imo .
The wording of Morrision’s press release suggests that he is dead scared of Nationals seats going to RW ‘climate hoax’ parties such as PHON, Palmer and similar.
Pretty sure the Senate preselection is all done and dusted for the LNP in Queensland. With Canavan in the second spot, he’s almost certain to get a quota. If he’s going to defect, it’ll be after the election.
Vogon Poet @ #2341 Sunday, October 24th, 2021 – 7:07 pm
If he’s going to go, surely he’d be mad not to do a Bernardi and lock in his Senate seat for 6 years and THEN defect.
Palmers party are Liberal attack dogs in yellow shirts. And they run all their negatives ads against Labor. They pollutes their airways, billboards, text messeges, and papers with their ads and make it more diffcult for Labor to get their messege across.
What happens is voters who get morphed with Palmers massive confetti of crap become confused and stick to the status quo. Which benefits the Morrison government no doubt.
Federal Labor should use QLD state Labor campaign as a template to deal with Palmer.
1. Send their front benchers after him.
2. Encourage there rank and file to call out Palmers crap on social media.
3. Run effective ads online on social media like the ones QLD Labor did at the last state campaign.
Liberal strategists don’t like the Liberals being allign with Palmer as he is unpopular with sections of the public. So for Labor to call it out and link Palmer to the Liberals there is nothing to lose and everything to gain. Trying to ignore Palmer or remaining quiet is at your peril.
I have 3 families of retired rellos living around Jervis Bay in the Gilmore electorate. Mostly they are uninterested in politics, but inclined towards conservative candidates due to the habits of living out in Red Neck central along the Laclan prior to retirement. But two of the wives volunteer at different Vinnies Shops and report several visits from the local member and how she made a favourable impression so reports that she has failed to get around much seem less likely to be correct.
Is the two time losing candidate Kotvojs standing again in EM? She seems a favourite among the moree conservative party members, but I would think its flogging a dead horse to run her again.
Douglas and Milko says:
Sunday, October 24, 2021 at 7:05 pm
Max@5.55pm,
Before you take P1’s opinion about how effective Fiona Phillips is as a local member, you should be aware that she lives in Gilmore, and will preference the Liberal party in that marginal seat.
——
Thanks D & M; yes I’m aware of P1’s take on that issue. As I commmented earlier, I have no knowledge of how effective Fiona Phillips is as an MP – and would expect that any one person’s opinion on that question would be subjective and informed by their own political values and views. What I found curious – genuinely – was the suggestion that Fiona Phillips was not too bad as an MP but had been unable to achieve much in the electorate due to LNP Federal/State government neglect. If that’s the case you’d think a Labor MP would be making that neglect a central focus of their campaign and might ride the outrage to re-election. And for all I know she might be doing so.